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anshabhi
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ME3 average load factors to US hover around 75%

Sun Apr 16, 2017 11:40 am

With ‘fake news’, ‘alternative facts’ and an increase in high profile, unsubstantiated claims on all sorts of topics becoming an almost daily occurrence (at least in the US), anna.aero thought it would be a good time to take a look at a high-profile and contentious issue in the aviation world – that of the MEB3 carriers (Emirates, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways) and their services to the US.
Looking across all routes from the airlines’ home hubs of Abu Dhabi, Doha and Dubai, the load factor champion on US routes among the MEB3 carriers is Qatar Airways. In the first nine months of last year the oneworld carrier 1.34 million passengers on its US routes at a load factor of 82%. Emirates came second, carrying more passengers (2.49 million) but at a lower load factor (75%). Finally, Etihad Airways welcomed 909,000 passengers on its US services at a load factor of 70%. [NB. We have received actual figures from the airline which are published at the bottom of this story.]



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PerfectGriffin
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Re: ME3 average load factors to US hover around 75%

Sun Apr 16, 2017 1:07 pm

Very interesting stuff.
ORD has the highest load factor for all three airlines.

And EK's LAX route and EY's SFO route dropped below 50%! I dunno how EK thought it was a good decision to launch a second daily to LAX with an A380, since the load factors weren't even good before that.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: ME3 average load factors to US hover around 75%

Sun Apr 16, 2017 1:16 pm

Shortly after EK coming to Seattle they were the price leader to much of SE Asia and Australia. More recently they run a $couple/few hundred more. Can anyone put their 75% load factor in context? If they are getting a few hundred more per ticket they could be the profit leader on those flights. And certainly 75% versus 85% would mean a more comfortable flight.
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c933103
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Re: ME3 average load factors to US hover around 75%

Sun Apr 16, 2017 1:24 pm

What happened to, for example, Qatar's IAD service at July?
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waly777
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Re: ME3 average load factors to US hover around 75%

Sun Apr 16, 2017 1:31 pm

Please add the disclaimer found in the article.... EY is actually equal to [email protected] 82% LF. OAG capacities were wrong for the 777's and 787's used to by EY. Thus the load factors reported were incorrect.

**STOP PRESS*** Etihad Airways have sent us their actual load factor figures by route for the period January to September 2016. They are: DFW (88%), IAD (85%), JFK (79%), LAX (82%), ORD (87%) and SFO (77%). Overall total – 82%. This is 12 percentage points higher than our estimate. Further investigation has revealed the problem to be that up until December 2016 OAG data showed that the airline’s 777-200LRs had 301 seats (rather than 239), its 777-300ERs had 406 seats (rather than 349) and its 787-9s had 270 seats (rather than 235). Sending correct data to OAG is the responsibility of the airline. Overstating the number of seats flown will clearly result in an underestimate of the flown load factor.
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waly777
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Re: ME3 average load factors to US hover around 75%

Sun Apr 16, 2017 1:34 pm

PerfectGriffin wrote:
Very interesting stuff.
ORD has the highest load factor for all three airlines.

And EK's LAX route and EY's SFO route dropped below 50%! I dunno how EK thought it was a good decision to launch a second daily to LAX with an A380, since the load factors weren't even good before that.


LAX was much better for EY. The capacity used for calculation was 301 seats vs EY's 239 seats... a 26% capacity, which will definitely skew the reported LF.
The test of first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold 2 opposed ideas in the mind concurrently, and still function
 
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Channex757
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Re: ME3 average load factors to US hover around 75%

Sun Apr 16, 2017 3:42 pm

Once again load factor isn't the whole story. A 50% full flight might have every business and first class seat filled, with excellent yields. The lower hold might be loaded with cargo that is able to be shipped if the passenger load is low.

You cannot infer anything from just a LF figure. An A380 that's 50% full might well be making $$$ if the big tickets have sold well.
 
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pylon101
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Re: ME3 average load factors to US hover around 75%

Sun Apr 16, 2017 3:50 pm

I flew IAD-DXB round trips for 6 times since September.
And the flight was always near full. In July and August it is hell.
Last August I got stuck in Muscat for two more weeks: there were no seats in Y at reasonable price. Actually there was none.
All available were via Malpensa or Boston.
I was waiting till the 10th of September.
I am on EK 231/232. The rest is just jet lag.
 
by738
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Re: ME3 average load factors to US hover around 75%

Sun Apr 16, 2017 3:58 pm

Its not unique to US. The QR flight to EDI barely has managed above 60% last few months and really only peaks at acceptable levels at height of summer. Bit as has been said flying 40% empty (im not sure if its even always daily) will not be the whole story.
 
TheF15Ace
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Re: ME3 average load factors to US hover around 75%

Sun Apr 16, 2017 4:14 pm

I have been flying between LA and DXB atleast every 3 months from around March last year and based only on my personal experience both F and J were almost completely full. Not really sure how economy was.
 
usairways85
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Re: ME3 average load factors to US hover around 75%

Sun Apr 16, 2017 4:26 pm

It's also worth noting that September is a notoriously slow travel month. US airlines probably cut their transatlantic schedules by 25+% in Sept/Oct.
 
nadavatar64
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Re: ME3 average load factors to US hover around 75%

Sun Apr 16, 2017 4:31 pm

usairways85 wrote:
It's also worth noting that September is a notoriously slow travel month. US airlines probably cut their transatlantic schedules by 25+% in Sept/Oct.


Thats true, look at July and August, alsmost all flights are above the 80s.
 
nadavatar64
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Re: ME3 average load factors to US hover around 75%

Sun Apr 16, 2017 4:32 pm

pylon101 wrote:
I flew IAD-DXB round trips for 6 times since September.
And the flight was always near full. In July and August it is hell.
Last August I got stuck in Muscat for two more weeks: there were no seats in Y at reasonable price. Actually there was none.
All available were via Malpensa or Boston.
I was waiting till the 10th of September.


Couldnt you just fly on a connecting flight?... :?
 
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pylon101
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Re: ME3 average load factors to US hover around 75%

Mon Apr 17, 2017 12:11 am

That's the point. I wanted A-388 for the 13-hour flight.
Alternatives were terribly expensive in August and all on 773, with JetBlue domestic.
It would have turned a nice experience into hell.
I love 773. But the noise level is just incomparable.
I could wait. I went DXB-BKK-DXB (on A-388) and enjoyed "green" season in Krabi province, in the Southern Thailand.
Very good deals on "green" season: airfare, car, hotels.
I am on EK 231/232. The rest is just jet lag.
 
burnsie28
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Re: ME3 average load factors to US hover around 75%

Mon Apr 17, 2017 1:34 am

waly777 wrote:
Please add the disclaimer found in the article.... EY is actually equal to [email protected] 82% LF. OAG capacities were wrong for the 777's and 787's used to by EY. Thus the load factors reported were incorrect.

**STOP PRESS*** Etihad Airways have sent us their actual load factor figures by route for the period January to September 2016. They are: DFW (88%), IAD (85%), JFK (79%), LAX (82%), ORD (87%) and SFO (77%). Overall total – 82%. This is 12 percentage points higher than our estimate. Further investigation has revealed the problem to be that up until December 2016 OAG data showed that the airline’s 777-200LRs had 301 seats (rather than 239), its 777-300ERs had 406 seats (rather than 349) and its 787-9s had 270 seats (rather than 235). Sending correct data to OAG is the responsibility of the airline. Overstating the number of seats flown will clearly result in an underestimate of the flown load factor.


That may be but in some cases could end up worse. For example, if you took DFW at the 77L size, Actual at the 88% load factor would be 210 pax, at the 75% load factor that 225 pax. 15 more paying pax places. Based of most of these airlines fares (I've found $3000 rt in business class on several occasions being offered) I can't see the yields being that super high. It would be even more interesting if we had a breakdown by cabin. Either way EY can toot their horn about load factor, but at the lower load factor with an overstated capacity they would of had more paying pax places.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: ME3 average load factors to US hover around 75%

Mon Apr 17, 2017 2:36 am

Not including Oct-Dec probably skews these numbers higher.
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keitherson
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Re: ME3 average load factors to US hover around 75%

Mon Apr 17, 2017 3:19 am

pylon101 wrote:
I flew IAD-DXB round trips for 6 times since September.
And the flight was always near full. In July and August it is hell.
Last August I got stuck in Muscat for two more weeks: there were no seats in Y at reasonable price. Actually there was none.
All available were via Malpensa or Boston.
I was waiting till the 10th of September.


pylon101 wrote:
That's the point. I wanted A-388 for the 13-hour flight.
Alternatives were terribly expensive in August and all on 773, with JetBlue domestic.
It would have turned a nice experience into hell.
I love 773. But the noise level is just incomparable.
I could wait. I went DXB-BKK-DXB (on A-388) and enjoyed "green" season in Krabi province, in the Southern Thailand.
Very good deals on "green" season: airfare, car, hotels.


So let me get this straight.

You stayed an extra 2 weeks in Muscat, on your own expense, because you didn't want to fly an EK 777, or a different connecting carrier, from MCT-DXB-IAD, in economy class. Even though other cheap economy flights were available, even on an EK 777 via MXP or BOS, you refused to fly because it was not an EK A388.

Are you for real?
 
waly777
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Re: ME3 average load factors to US hover around 75%

Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:50 am

burnsie28 wrote:
waly777 wrote:
Please add the disclaimer found in the article.... EY is actually equal to [email protected] 82% LF. OAG capacities were wrong for the 777's and 787's used to by EY. Thus the load factors reported were incorrect.

**STOP PRESS*** Etihad Airways have sent us their actual load factor figures by route for the period January to September 2016. They are: DFW (88%), IAD (85%), JFK (79%), LAX (82%), ORD (87%) and SFO (77%). Overall total – 82%. This is 12 percentage points higher than our estimate. Further investigation has revealed the problem to be that up until December 2016 OAG data showed that the airline’s 777-200LRs had 301 seats (rather than 239), its 777-300ERs had 406 seats (rather than 349) and its 787-9s had 270 seats (rather than 235). Sending correct data to OAG is the responsibility of the airline. Overstating the number of seats flown will clearly result in an underestimate of the flown load factor.


That may be but in some cases could end up worse. For example, if you took DFW at the 77L size, Actual at the 88% load factor would be 210 pax, at the 75% load factor that 225 pax. 15 more paying pax places. Based of most of these airlines fares (I've found $3000 rt in business class on several occasions being offered) I can't see the yields being that super high. It would be even more interesting if we had a breakdown by cabin. Either way EY can toot their horn about load factor, but at the lower load factor with an overstated capacity they would of had more paying pax places.


75% was a network wide LF for the US on the 3 carriers and not specific to DFW on EY.
DFW has been correctly reported as 88%, i.e 210 pax with the correct 239 cap. For the 301 cap, that will be 69.8%. The average pax flown is not variable based on capacity.

In addition, $3000 rt on one day is not an indicator of the average price. Revenue management systems will vary price by a range of factors including the OD booked, the forecast, DOW, month of the year, special events, length of stay btw outbound and inbound to name a few....
The test of first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold 2 opposed ideas in the mind concurrently, and still function
 
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pylon101
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Re: ME3 average load factors to US hover around 75%

Mon Apr 17, 2017 10:23 am

No-no. I have a company in Oman. Or rather 20% in the company based on my ownership of intellectual property.
I don't want to move to Oman. It is a nice peaceful country. But it is too hot there. That is why I fly EK 232/231 IAD-DXB-IAD.
However I went to Thailand on my own expense!
I am on EK 231/232. The rest is just jet lag.
 
sand26391
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Re: ME3 average load factors to US hover around 75%

Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:22 am

Emirates says traveller numbers from US to Iran, Indian Subcontinent slip

April 18 (Reuters) - The number of travellers heading from the United States to Iran and the Indian Subcontinent has dipped since January after Washington imposed restrictions affecting some passengers on U.S.-bound flights, an Emirates executive said on Tuesday. Emirates Chief Commercial Officer Thierry Antinori did not give figures but said some passengers flying from some U.S. cities were taking longer to decide on travel plans. "We see people waiting, especially (to) Iran," he said in Dubai. From March 25, the United States banned electronic gadgets larger than a mobile phone inside cabins on direct flights to the United States from 10 airports in the Middle East, North Africa and Turkey. Dubai, the Emirates hub, was included. U.S. President Donald Trump's executive orders, signed in January and March, to bar refugees and nationals of several Muslim-majority country in the Middle East and North Africa from travelling to the United States also disrupted travel plans of some passengers. Iran along with Iraq, Libya, Syria, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen were banned under the January order. Iraq was dropped from the March order. Both bans were blocked by U.S. judges. Emirates said in March that booking rates on U.S. flights fell 35 percent after January's ban. [nL5N1GM24B] Travel analysis company ForwardKeys said U.S. bookings to the Middle East dropped 27 percent in the four weeks following Trump's January travel order. [nL5N1GJ11I] In his comments to reporters, Antinori declined to say whether the U.S. restrictions would affect the airline's expansion plans but said Emirates could "adapt to the future." Antinori had said in 2013 that Emirates would double its U.S. network to 15 cities by 2018. It now has 12 U.S. routes. However, Dubai Corporation for Tourism and Commerce Marketing Chief Executive Issam Abdul Rahim Kazim said visits by U.S. citizens to Dubai had increased so far this year. He did not give details. He also said Dubai was also receiving more Chinese visitors since November, when Chinese passports holders were allowed to obtain a United Arab Emirates on arrival. He did not give numbers.

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/emirates- ... 0418-00501
 
r2rho
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Re: ME3 average load factors to US hover around 75%

Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:28 am

Interesting numbers. I would be intrigued to see the same study for 2017 towards end of the year, so we can compare the numbers, end see what effect the electronics ban has had.
 
hibtastic
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Re: ME3 average load factors to US hover around 75%

Tue Apr 25, 2017 1:16 pm

by738 wrote:
Its not unique to US. The QR flight to EDI barely has managed above 60% last few months and really only peaks at acceptable levels at height of summer. Bit as has been said flying 40% empty (im not sure if its even always daily) will not be the whole story.


A little off topic for this thread but I have to call out by738 for his/her strange obsession with EDI's ME load factors - 4 of the last 6 months were well over 70%. QR are slowly but steadily growing the route from DOH to EDI based on load factors alone which tell half the story. I am told that premium and cargo loads are healthy. In this market QR are competing with EY at EDI and EK at GLA and NCL as well as all of the other hub connections from BA, KL, LH etc.

Last 12 months load factor on EDI-DOH:

Feb-17 62%
Jan-17 73%
Dec-16 76%
Nov-16 63%
Oct-16 81%
Sep-16 77%
Aug-16 88%
Jul-16 91%
Jun-16 67%
May-16 53%
Apr-16 64%
Mar-16 68%

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