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Arion640 wrote:From a local of Cardiff Airport, AMS is partially down due to the heavy fog issues experienced in March. When KLM run 3 flights per day this can be an issue. However there would of still been a drop but not quite as much possibly.
However the main factor for all these routes is no doubt an early easter in 2016. That could probably explain any drop less than about 5%.
GCT64 wrote:Arion640 wrote:From a local of Cardiff Airport, AMS is partially down due to the heavy fog issues experienced in March. When KLM run 3 flights per day this can be an issue. However there would of still been a drop but not quite as much possibly.
However the main factor for all these routes is no doubt an early easter in 2016. That could probably explain any drop less than about 5%.
CWL international traffic was NOT down in March 2017:
EU pax traffic was up 7% (cf. March 2016), non-EU Intl was up 26%.
SCQ83 wrote:What is going on in the "Costas"? And this March was not even Easter (!)
GLA-AGP +137%
BFS-AGP +115%
BFS-ALC +78%
GLA-ALC +71%
MAN-ALC +37%
EDI-ALC +26%
MAN-AGP +23%
BHX-AGP +15%
LGW-ALC +15%
No surprise now you go to Benidorm in February or Marbella in November and it looks like it is the new high-season.
Something interesting I noticed is that in general the wealthiest the area served by each British airport, the more passengers AGP has VS ALC.
factsonly wrote:Air travel tends to be a fairly accurate barometer of a nation's economic health.
Particularly Air Cargo data are accurate indicators of changes in economic activity.
The latest CAA air passenger traffic figures for March 2017 indicate that the UK economy might be on a downward slope, as many major UK air routes report lower air traffic.
Now March 2016 included an early Easter and this may influence March 2017 figures negatively to a certain extend.
But the latest figures for the major UK airports are too negative for this just to be merely a statistical variation.
Ofcourse many routes are also reporting positive figures (not shown here), so a certain shift in pax. markets may be at play as well.
CAA - March 2017 - Passenger data
HEATHROW - AUCKLAND 1.012 -13%
HEATHROW - MELBOURNE 9.805 -15%
HEATHROW - SYDNEY 23.299 -5%
MANCHESTER - HONG KONG 10.639 -2%
MANCHESTER - SINGAPORE 7.261 -24%
https://www.caa.co.uk/Data-and-analysis ... a-2017-03/
GCT64 wrote:Personally I would look at the overall traffic rather than cherry pick certain routes:
LHR pax up 1%, LGW pax up 8%, MAN pax up 10%, BHX pax up 9% (all Mar 17 compared with Mar 16).
Those growth rates all look pretty healthy to me.
Drilling down a bit more:
LGW EU pax +7%, LGW non-EU Intl pax +10% (Mar 17 compared with Mar 16)
MAN EU pax +15%, MAN non-EU Intl pax +3% (Mar 17 compared with Mar 16)
No economic warning signs there.
factsonly wrote:
Summa767 wrote:Not much to read from the traffic figures.
A lot more leisure capacity, especially on shorter routes (i,e, less Sharm El Sheik, more ALC). April will no doubt show a pronounced increase in passenger numbers overall -but that is not necessarily representative of the economy.
But the economic figures themselves, growth was lower than expected in the first 3 months of the year. A mere 0.3% growth. Compare that with Spain's 0.8%.
The world economy is seems to be accelerating. It looks like the UK's -resilient with some Brexit delusions after the referendum- is starting to stare reality in the face.
sevenair wrote:Summa767 wrote:Not much to read from the traffic figures.
A lot more leisure capacity, especially on shorter routes (i,e, less Sharm El Sheik, more ALC). April will no doubt show a pronounced increase in passenger numbers overall -but that is not necessarily representative of the economy.
But the economic figures themselves, growth was lower than expected in the first 3 months of the year. A mere 0.3% growth. Compare that with Spain's 0.8%.
The world economy is seems to be accelerating. It looks like the UK's -resilient with some Brexit delusions after the referendum- is starting to stare reality in the face.
Over he last five years the U.K. GDP growth has been at or below 0.3% for three quarters. Long before Brexit came along. What was the excuse for these out of interest? Russian hackers?
sevenair wrote:Brexit is hideously bad right? It seems absolutely fine from where I'm sitting.
sevenair wrote:Yes. It's just terrible. End of the world stuff. All these airlines adding routes, aircraft. Not one has been removed.
But we know the rules: anything good, it's because we are still in. Anything bad, it's because we are leaving (ignoring the fact that we are still in EU).
Spain grew 0.8%. Following years in the doldrums. Could it be because of a surge in tourism to Spain predominately by Brits? I wonder how they'll do after we leave. After all we were told that we wouldn't be able to travel easily to the costas.
sevenair wrote:Yes. It's just terrible. End of the world stuff. All these airlines adding routes, aircraft. Not one has been removed.
sevenair wrote:It must be the £4500 per family hit we have been taken, the recession, depression, housing market collapse, exodus of foreign companies, having to pay to go abroad, collapse of the NHS and predicted collapse in IPOs listing in London that we were promised if we voted leave?
Can on presume that NO routes experienced any growth as none are listed!? No mention of easyJet adding routes and aircraft, Ryanair doing the same and WIZZ adding a new base?
Brexit is a catastrophe. I wish I wasn't in aviation.
Summa767 wrote:sevenair wrote:Yes. It's just terrible. End of the world stuff. All these airlines adding routes, aircraft. Not one has been removed.
But we know the rules: anything good, it's because we are still in. Anything bad, it's because we are leaving (ignoring the fact that we are still in EU).
Spain grew 0.8%. Following years in the doldrums. Could it be because of a surge in tourism to Spain predominately by Brits? I wonder how they'll do after we leave. After all we were told that we wouldn't be able to travel easily to the costas.
Erm, I have certainly not mentioned any "end of the world stuff". The UK has made a fool of itself and the Brits are clearly paying more for things.
Spain has actually grown a lot better than the UK for quite a few quarters. Despite the crisis suffered, their prospects are good as they have fantastic infrastructure: More Km of high speed train lines than even Germany. How many does the UK have?
Spain are already producing a lot more cars than the UK.
As for tourism, it has increased from all origins including the UK but as a proportion of the overall it has actually been sliding.
Arion640 wrote:[photoid][/photoid]sevenair wrote:It must be the £4500 per family hit we have been taken, the recession, depression, housing market collapse, exodus of foreign companies, having to pay to go abroad, collapse of the NHS and predicted collapse in IPOs listing in London that we were promised if we voted leave?
Can on presume that NO routes experienced any growth as none are listed!? No mention of easyJet adding routes and aircraft, Ryanair doing the same and WIZZ adding a new base?
Brexit is a catastrophe. I wish I wasn't in aviation.
Don't forget that ryan air was threatning to drop a grand total of 3 domestic routes because of brexit.
The media put a spin on this to make it sound like ryan air was flying 100's of intra uk routes.
And since the disaster vote on June 23rd, Cardiff Airport has added routes to Madrid, Guernsey, Berlin, Rome, London City, another operator to faro (ryanair) and Qatar Airways to Doha. What a disaster.
Summa767 wrote:sevenair wrote:Yes. It's just terrible. End of the world stuff. All these airlines adding routes, aircraft. Not one has been removed.
But we know the rules: anything good, it's because we are still in. Anything bad, it's because we are leaving (ignoring the fact that we are still in EU).
Spain grew 0.8%. Following years in the doldrums. Could it be because of a surge in tourism to Spain predominately by Brits? I wonder how they'll do after we leave. After all we were told that we wouldn't be able to travel easily to the costas.
Erm, I have certainly not mentioned any "end of the world stuff". The UK has made a fool of itself and the Brits are clearly paying more for things.
Spain has actually grown a lot better than the UK for quite a few quarters. Despite the crisis suffered, their prospects are good as they have fantastic infrastructure: More Km of high speed train lines than even Germany. How many does the UK have?
Spain are already producing a lot more cars than the UK.
As for tourism, it has increased from all origins including the UK but as a proportion of the overall it has actually been sliding.
UltimoTiger777 wrote:sevenair wrote:Yes. It's just terrible. End of the world stuff. All these airlines adding routes, aircraft. Not one has been removed.
To be fair, here at Manchester we lost the United Airlines route to Washington and in addition to that, AA have made the New York & Chicago flights into seasonal ones (although Philadelphia is still all year round).
I know UA have also culled a bunch of other UK routes.
sevenair wrote:Brussels: +28%
SQ22 wrote:Please keep politics out here, otherwise thread will be locked.
Summa767 wrote:It was a question of time - The British currency fell against the US dollar to a 30 year low and is still below that level. That translates into higher costs for people and companies that have a downstream effect.
parapente wrote:Facts only.You have started a thread,clearly you want a debate.The silence is deafening....
factsonly wrote:parapente wrote:Facts only.You have started a thread,clearly you want a debate.The silence is deafening....
Not to worry, I am enjoying the ride!
I clearly stated in the opening section of this thread, that air travel statistics are a fairly accurate barometer of economic health.
And that the latest CAA air passenger traffic figures for March 2017 indicate that the UK economy MIGHT BE on a downward slope.
So I didn't say the UK economy IS on a downward slope, but I asked whether we are possibly seeing the initial signs of a changing wind, a turn in the dynamics.
In economic analyses this is quite a normal thing to call.
For example, take today's report by the BBC that the HALIFAX reports: 'UK House prices are falling'.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-39842715
House prices are a very similar economic barometer used to gauge the health of an economy. No big argument there.
As a regular monthly observer of the CAA's air travel statistics, one does note a difference between the regular monthy growth figures and a sudden rather sharp turn to negative growth.
Responding by quoting growth in traffic to Spanish holiday destinations as an illustration of the perfect health of the UK economy makes me smile.
As noted by others, sales of Spanish holidays are booming as people opt out of holidays in Turkey, Egypt and Tunisia.
Also....the large set of negative March figures CAN NOT only be explained by just EASTER falling in April.
My question was simple......are we witnessing the first signs of change?
Economists are continously looking for signs of change, a first month of different figures...a change in the dynamics of reported statistics.
That is what is this thread is all about.
Although I do enjoy reading some of the responses.
So are house prices falling Yes or No, and..... is the Halifax right or not?
Please continue the discussion.