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fightforlove
Posts: 105
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 4:04 am

250 Passengers would cut into 787-8 capacity. Wondering if this prospective aircraft family would eventually replace the 788.
 
c933103
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 4:50 am

flee wrote:
c933103 wrote:
With a new wing, would it be possible to further stretch it to like A323 or A324 with length up to what DC-8 have been? such machine can probably seat 300+ people one class?
Wouldn't it be easier to get a A338 for this kind of capacity?

- I thought 338 can put up to about 400 seat in one class config?
- And the range and capability would be hugely difference
- The A338 is not ordered by many airlines either
When no other countries around the world is going to militarily stop China and its subordinate fom abusing its citizens within its national boundary, it is unreasonable to expect those abuse can be countered with purely peaceful means.
 
chiki
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 6:13 am

fightforlove wrote:
250 Passengers would cut into 787-8 capacity. Wondering if this prospective aircraft family would eventually replace the 788.

Still can't match the range of the 787 and no of premium seats
 
Olddog
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 6:19 am

The 787 range can be a handicap for tatl missions. That range has a cost.
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
StTim
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 6:43 am

Don't worry the ban on large electronics in the cabin will cut down business flights across the world meaning smaller, not larger, planes are required.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 9:12 am

KarelXWB wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:
If Airbus wants to put 2025 generation engines under that CFRP wing, it won't be much earlier.


Would probably depend on what P&W and CFM think they can get out of the current engines with PiPs.

Pratt particularly, were pretty aggressive in their expectations of performance - and while the GTF is having teething issues - thrust and fuel burn are not among them.


If the 797 gets a new engine, I can imagine Airbus would want to put the same engine technology on the re-winged A320 family. A new wing design requires a new pylon anyway, might as well put a new engine on the airplane.


I was thinking more of the possibility of a PiP'd GTF being available in the 2020-2022 timeframe rather than the 2025-2027 timeframe of the 797.
 
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speedbored
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 9:15 am

zeke wrote:
You haven't addressed any of the deferred costs which the cash flow is already been spoken for, one day Boeing will have to use unit cost accounting.

Actually, Zeke, deferred costs have already been paid for out of historic cash flows - they will have almost no impact at all on future cash flows, except for tax and some other relatively trivial payments.

Deferred costs will mainly only affect future profits but that is just a paperwork and tax exercise.
 
parapente
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 9:25 am

Re pip'd GTF.I wonder whether this might be the crucial difference between the 'plus' and the 'plus plus'.
The 'plus' (whatever it is) then could be brought into service circa 2020-2022 (as stated above).
Clearly any aircraft requiring brand new 'MOM' engines would have to work to the Boeing timetable.

IMHO it will all be about where the MOM sweet spot actually is.Physics being what it is,if you really want a 270 seater that can do 4,500 miles plus then you are going to need a new more powerful engine (and just about everything else).

But if the answer is 250pax. (One class) and 4,300 miles then maybe just maybe you could get away with 38k thrust from a pip'd GTF.But I am no expert!
 
Amiga500
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 9:35 am

Same as I said for Boeing - who then went and did the max10 anyway. If Airbus are for doing a new wing - IMO it must:

- Be capable of fitting into the current A320/A321 fuselage/wingbox
- Be capable of fitting into an envisaged A30X fuselage/wingbox
- Be capable of scaling with aircraft MTOW (in philosophy at least - such as allowing for undercarriage of different lengths and allowing for a smaller wing with the Cat C. wingspan)

This allows an A322 to form the initial phase of a wider upgrade to the A320 line. Airbus can then get up the manufacturing learning curve on (relatively) low production rate MoMs and later pull the technology down into the heart of the single-aisle market when the economics make more sense. It spreads the development cost out and extends out the wider A320 development pathway - for instance a next-gen A320 could then fit in an even bigger BPR engine under the wing than currently.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 9:38 am

parapente wrote:
IMHO it will all be about where the MOM sweet spot actually is.Physics being what it is,if you really want a 270 seater that can do 4,500 miles plus then you are going to need a new more powerful engine (and just about everything else).


I'm not sure that the "sweet spot" (in terms of payload-range) is actually achievable when weighed against the efficiency of what will surround it in the market. Best the airframers can do is get as close as possible from the single-aisle side and the 8-a-breast side --- I just don't see a 7-a-breast being competitive against a contemporary rival.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 9:56 am

parapente wrote:
IMHO it will all be about where the MOM sweet spot actually is.


A major part of Boeing's issue with defining MOM has been that there is absolutely no consensus on where that sweet spot actually is.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 10:23 am

scbriml wrote:
parapente wrote:
IMHO it will all be about where the MOM sweet spot actually is.


A major part of Boeing's issue with defining MOM has been that there is absolutely no consensus on where that sweet spot actually is.


That opens up the market for both an A322 and a 797. The A322 may offer 15% more capacity and 15% range. The 797 could be bigger than that.
 
scotron11
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 10:26 am

speedbored wrote:
zeke wrote:
You haven't addressed any of the deferred costs which the cash flow is already been spoken for, one day Boeing will have to use unit cost accounting.

Actually, Zeke, deferred costs have already been paid for out of historic cash flows - they will have almost no impact at all on future cash flows, except for tax and some other relatively trivial payments.

Deferred costs will mainly only affect future profits but that is just a paperwork and tax exercise.


Deferred costs have already been paid for? When did that happen and why are they still carrying almost $27BN on the 787 alone?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 10:42 am

scotron11 wrote:
Deferred costs have already been paid for? When did that happen and why are they still carrying almost $27BN on the 787 alone?


Speedbored means the money has already been spent. However, it hasn't been accounted for, hence the deferred costs.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
parapente
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 10:47 am

Btw does anybody know where the limit is on 'pavement loading' for a single bogey a/c is?At present the A321lr is at 97 T so that clearly must be OK.But I would have thought they must be getting close to the limit.I can't think of any other a/c that has that sort of weight to tyre 'patch' on the ground.
If the 'plus' was some sort of derivative of the existing structure this might be a key factor.

Also (thinking of lead times).Can a revised version of their existing double bogey MLG be created?They must have the computer 'blueprints' and all the testing data but the gigs and tools?Its been quite a while..
 
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zeke
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 10:48 am

Exactly if they had account for them at the time they were incurred large losses would have been posted resulting in a much lower market capitalisation as the share price would dive.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
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speedbored
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 10:50 am

scbriml wrote:
scotron11 wrote:
Deferred costs have already been paid for? When did that happen and why are they still carrying almost $27BN on the 787 alone?


Speedbored means the money has already been spent. However, it hasn't been accounted for, hence the deferred costs.

Yes, that is exactly it.

The most common misunderstanding of these "deferred costs" is that they are something that still needs to be paid for - they don't. It is purely an accounting method that allows you to defer the impact to the bottom line. Aside from tax affects, there is almost zero impact on cashflow.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 10:55 am

speedbored wrote:
scbriml wrote:
scotron11 wrote:
Deferred costs have already been paid for? When did that happen and why are they still carrying almost $27BN on the 787 alone?


Speedbored means the money has already been spent. However, it hasn't been accounted for, hence the deferred costs.

Yes, that is exactly it.

The most common misunderstanding of these "deferred costs" is that they are something that still needs to be paid for - they don't. It is purely an accounting method that allows you to defer the impact to the bottom line. Aside from tax affects, there is almost zero impact on cashflow.


Yes Airbus is reacting by looking at an A322 because they know Boeing has the cash and is working on cutting costs so they can launch a 797. Boeing has had its cash drop over the last couple of years, but they still have almost $10 billion. With cost cutting and EIS of the 737MAX, revenue and income should climb and there should be money available to fund a 797. If Boeing doesnt launch a new program and invest in research and development their profits, where would they spend the money? On more buybacks and dividends? I think a new airplane program is more prudent, but they have to get the cost structure low so that they can build it and price it competitively with the proposed A322, which will be a challenge.

Airbus is in a bit of a cash crunch right now because of delays with A350 and A320neo deliveries, but by the time development work on a new wing gets going, the current production problems should be over. While I think the analysis are wrong when they say a new wing could be developed for $1-2 Billion, Airbus certainly can do it for less than a 797.
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 11:01 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
Boeing has had its cash drop over the last couple of years, but they still have almost $10 billion.


That's not how it works. Just because you have a pile of money doesn't mean you have to spend it. Boeing has a R&D budget and has no plans to increase that budget. As per CEO:

Muilenburg’s vision does not leave room for increasing how much the company is spending on research and development. The company has between $2 billion and $3 billion of R&D spending tied up through 2021 on existing programs, including the 777X, the 737 MAX and 787-10.


Ref http://www.heraldnet.com/business/boein ... customers/

That's why I believe the 797 won't be launched until the MAX 8/9 and 787-10 have entered service in 2018.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
dare100em
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 11:06 am

Amiga500 wrote:
Boeing778X wrote:
This time, Boeing will have a clean sheet type. Airbus is upgrading.

It will be interesting.


Like the original A350 vs. the B787.

Its interesting in that people (and I'd wager, airlines) have already vastly different mindsets to an upgraded A321 compared to the A330.


Why people always assume that an upgraded A330 ala A350MKI/II would have been such a great idea? Where would Airbus be without doing the A350? They would have a good competitor to the 787, maybe even with higer profits. But anything above the 787 would be Boeing only and they could still sell the 777W, maybe with new engines for immense profits.

If Airbus would have done this they would be in the middle of a clean sheet development now slightly above the 777X.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 11:10 am

speedbored wrote:
scbriml wrote:
scotron11 wrote:
Deferred costs have already been paid for? When did that happen and why are they still carrying almost $27BN on the 787 alone?


Speedbored means the money has already been spent. However, it hasn't been accounted for, hence the deferred costs.

Yes, that is exactly it.

The most common misunderstanding of these "deferred costs" is that they are something that still needs to be paid for - they don't. It is purely an accounting method that allows you to defer the impact to the bottom line. Aside from tax affects, there is almost zero impact on cashflow.


Yes deferring the cost has nearly no influence. :sarcastic: It just allows Boeing to show a profit, pay out dividends, pay bonuses to the upper management and use the profits also for buying back shares. Those activities have of course no influence and are only on paper.
And having to cut profits in the future to account for the deferred cost. will again have no influence. Boeing will just show lower profits, cut dividends and bonuses and stop buying shares back or have to actually sell them again. Deferring costs have of course only influence on paper. :sarcastic:
 
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ITMercure
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 11:13 am

Everybody talks about a brand-new CFRP wing, which would obviously cost billions to develop and create a totally new breed of airplane compared to the CEO/NEO A32X familly. Couldn't Airbus kill the case with an A322 by "just" : slightly stretching the fuselage so as not to canibalize the A321LR, fitting more powerfull engines BUT from the same suppliers (retaining global commonality), and fitting new wing plugs at the wing root? MDD did it before when transitionning from the DC-9 to the MD-80 familly. It worked well, aeronynamics were quite good indeed, fuel carriage was greatly increased. Of course you would need wingbox redesign, but that's someting that has to be done anyways if you intend to go North of 105T. What about a simple 1.5m plug at the root, and maybe a 747-400-style wingtip extension (then again, that's a done and proven engineering solution, and it worked fine) ? :If the new wing tankage volume is not enough for your desired range, add belly-tanks ala A321LR. Landing speeds could be kept within the existing A321's range by 1/ the effect of the wing root extention, meaning a few more square meters of flaps where they generate more lift 2/ a slight chord extention at the trailing edge, exactly what Airbus did with the A350-1000. Of course that last solution would slightly penalize drag but due to the wing extensions in length, overal aeronynamics of the wing (for a same profile) should be better.
I know this is no state of the art solution, but as I said, other did it before, none of these proposals are exotic, low-cost being the driving factor. Do this before Boeing can launch a MoM and this thin market segment is yours for the forseeable future.
Last edited by ITMercure on Thu May 11, 2017 11:23 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
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speedbored
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 11:16 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
Yes Airbus is reacting by looking at an A322 because they know Boeing has the cash and is working on cutting costs so they can launch a 797. Boeing has had its cash drop over the last couple of years, but they still have almost $10 billion.

That's not quite how it works either. A company the size of Boeing needs significant cash reserves to smoothe out peaks and troughs in cashflows and to cater for unpredictable events (e.g. the after affects of Sept 11, etc.). Many analysts have been getting very concerned in the last few years about the amount of cash Boeing has been spending on share buybacks to prop up the share price (and, hence, management bonuses).

Newbiepilot wrote:
With cost cutting and EIS of the 737MAX, revenue and income should climb and there should be money available to fund a 797.

737MAX EIS is actually likely to reduce cashflow in the short term - every new model is initially expensive to produce, often loss-making, and the 737NG has been Boeing's biggest cash cow in recent years.

Newbiepilot wrote:
If Boeing doesnt launch a new program and invest in research and development their profits, where would they spend the money? On more buybacks and dividends?

That looks like the plan, along with the associated management bonuses, of course.

Newbiepilot wrote:
Airbus is in a bit of a cash crunch right now because of delays with A350 and A320neo deliveries, but by the time development work on a new wing gets going, the current production problems should be over. While I think the analysis are wrong when they say a new wing could be developed for $1-2 Billion, Airbus certainly can do it for less than a 797.

Both manufacturers are perfectly able to afford the cost of developing new models, even in the unlikely event that they needed to borrow cash to do so. There are other limiting factors such as shareholder expectations, sales market, technical resources, etc.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 11:19 am

KarelXWB wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
Boeing has had its cash drop over the last couple of years, but they still have almost $10 billion.


That's not how it works. Just because you have a pile of money doesn't mean you have to spend it. Boeing has a R&D budget and has no plans to increase that budget. As per CEO:

Muilenburg’s vision does not leave room for increasing how much the company is spending on research and development. The company has between $2 billion and $3 billion of R&D spending tied up through 2021 on existing programs, including the 777X, the 737 MAX and 787-10.


Ref http://www.heraldnet.com/business/boein ... customers/

That's why I believe the 797 won't be launched until the MAX 8/9 and 787-10 have entered service in 2018.


That is what I was saying. MAX, 787-10 and 767 tanker R&D spending should drop. That will provide resources for a 797. If they didn't do a 797, where would the cash go? More buybacks and dividends or growing cash. They have enough cash now. That should remain consistent rather than grow. Sorry if I implied they would be spending it.
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 11:25 am

dare100em wrote:
Why people always assume that an upgraded A330 ala A350MKI/II would have been such a great idea? Where would Airbus be without doing the A350? They would have a good competitor to the 787, maybe even with higer profits. But anything above the 787 would be Boeing only and they could still sell the 777W, maybe with new engines for immense profits.


Besides, the original A350 would have had a significant performance issue: the original GEnx engine missed its fuel burn by 4-5%. Imagine if the A350 had entered service with that engine.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 11:31 am

dare100em wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
Boeing778X wrote:
This time, Boeing will have a clean sheet type. Airbus is upgrading.
It will be interesting.

Like the original A350 vs. the B787.
Its interesting in that people (and I'd wager, airlines) have already vastly different mindsets to an upgraded A321 compared to the A330.


Why people always assume that an upgraded A330 ala A350MKI/II would have been such a great idea? Where would Airbus be without doing the A350? They would have a good competitor to the 787, maybe even with higer profits. But anything above the 787 would be Boeing only and they could still sell the 777W, maybe with new engines for immense profits.

If Airbus would have done this they would be in the middle of a clean sheet development now slightly above the 777X.


If they did the A350mk1, expectation would have been on concluding its release into service several years ago.

That would have allowed Airbus to release an A360 (still launched prior to the 777X) which would have been a better coverage of the A350-900, -1000 and prospective -1100 markets. The airframe wouldn't be carrying the luggage of the A350-800.

Of course - it would have required the airlines to actually perceive the value of a re-engined aircraft and re-winged aircraft - which they didn't perhaps realise until the A320neo release (and it only being a re-engine at that). Airbus had no choice, airline stupidity (infatuation with composites for the sake of composites) put them into that corner.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 11:36 am

KarelXWB wrote:
Besides, the original A350 would have had a significant performance issue: the original GEnx engine missed its fuel burn by 4-5%. Imagine if the A350 had entered service with that engine.


Largely wouldn't have been Airbus' problem - they'd have moved resource to other programs. GE would have been scrambling to produce PiPs. With the engine being more or less identical to 787 (with exception of bleedless architecture) - improvements on one would have carried to the other.
 
texl1649
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 11:38 am

zeke wrote:
Therefore you lied before when you said this was "certain message board Boeing detractors" ? There is a genuine economic slowdown which is impacting Boeing significantly.

The number of aircraft in backlog and their list price has little to do with free cash flow available to launch a new aircraft. It is well known Boeing has a lot of expenses at the moment on the 737MAX, 787, 77X, and 767 tanker. A lot of their upcoming cash has already spoken for or spent.


No, your links had nothing to do with cash flow. "Troubles," or deferred costs, have no impact to my point. Boeing is paid and generates cash as aircraft are delivered, not as they are ordered. Almost none of the cash flow for 2018 thru 2022 that will come from working thru the backlog is allocated today to new r and d or other expenditures. It's available, as are any other way of financing (stock, bond issuances, borrowing.)
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 12:42 pm

I don't agree with those saying a 4300nm range target would be sufficient. When spending this amount of cash on a larger, more efficient new wing design, it would be silly not to go for at 5000nm or more. The A321LR is said to fly 4200nm on paper, realistic range due to routing and weather is probably around 3600nm. Allowing for 1000nm more range would open up even more markets, and I believe the Boeing MoM is targeting the 5000nm range segment. What we see with almost all new aircraft models is gradual range improvements over time, due to PiPs, aerodynamical cleanups, belly tanks and other things. Why not aim for sufficient range from the start? A 4300nm range A321++ or A322++ would have a handicap against the Boeing MoM.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 12:50 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
Why not aim for sufficient range from the start?


Because then your airframe is too big and heavy. They'll want the bare minimum at launch, and then have the aircraft grow longer legs over time.

The alternative is something that cannot compete against the competition on the majority of missions.
 
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zeke
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 1:01 pm

texl1649 wrote:
No, your links had nothing to do with cash flow. "Troubles," or deferred costs, have no impact to my point. Boeing is paid and generates cash as aircraft are delivered, not as they are ordered. Almost none of the cash flow for 2018 thru 2022 that will come from working thru the backlog is allocated today to new r and d or other expenditures. It's available, as are any other way of financing (stock, bond issuances, borrowing.)


The economic slowdown is real, the reduction in production rates is real, the deferrals and cancellations are real, the layoffs are real. They all impact cash flow, that is what those links show.

Boeing has to account for the cost the tooling etc at some stage, they either have to take the hit when they were incurred (which they did not do, they would have posted massive losses) or defer those costs, it has chosen the latter. The deferred costs are like a credit card, they money has been spent, at some stage they will need to account for the expenses.

Each aircraft built does bring in cash when sold, but they also generate additional direct and indirect costs of production. One of the gambles Boeing is playing is did they price the aircraft so that the cash received exceeds the cost of production.
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Polot
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 1:03 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:
Besides, the original A350 would have had a significant performance issue: the original GEnx engine missed its fuel burn by 4-5%. Imagine if the A350 had entered service with that engine.


Largely wouldn't have been Airbus' problem - they'd have moved resource to other programs. GE would have been scrambling to produce PiPs. With the engine being more or less identical to 787 (with exception of bleedless architecture) - improvements on one would have carried to the other.

Of course it would have been a problem for Airbus. Airlines don't like it when their planes miss projections by 4-5%, just look at the MD-11. Boeing got a little lucky on that front and all the delays on the 787 allowed GE/RR some time to catch up, although I believe fuel burn was still off (but better than expected aerodynamics made up for it).

Also there is the PR issue. Hard to remember now but Airbus was getting beaten up at the time (kind of like Boeing now). A340NG entered service a little late and overweight (heavy wing), meanwhile the 77W entered service on time and beat expectations. A380 was heavily delayed and Airbus was viewed as being very secretive about its issues and the extent of its problem, while Boeing was seen as being much more honest and open about the 7E7/787 program (laughable now, but that was perception at the time). Airbus was seen as fumbling around with a proper response to the 787, and not actually taking the competitor seriously, while Boeing was winning orders and building excitement ("drug rush") from airlines and the press. The A350 Mk1 missing expectations would have just been another PR blow supporting the "Airbus can't design planes on time and meeting performance" narrative that was building at the time..
 
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BoeingVista
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 1:51 pm

Polot wrote:
while Boeing was seen as being much more honest and open about the 7E7/787 program (laughable now, but that was perception at the time).


Wow, seriously? Only those willing to drink the cool aid thought that Boeing were being honest about the 787 and it lead to pitched battles on A.net between them and the realists.

Also you seem to have totally forgotten the sonic cruiser debacle and the derision of it which goaded Boeing into fantastical 7E7 promises.
BV
 
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Polot
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 1:58 pm

BoeingVista wrote:
Polot wrote:
while Boeing was seen as being much more honest and open about the 7E7/787 program (laughable now, but that was perception at the time).


Wow, seriously? Only those willing to drink the cool aid thought that Boeing were being honest about the 787 and it lead to pitched battles on A.net between them and the realists.

Exactly proving my point. Boeing had excellent PR that convinced people that things were going well. I didn't say everyone fell for it ;) Meanwhile with Airbus the discussion was more "customer complexity (the initial excuse) can't possibly account for all these delays (in regards to the A380), what exactly is Airbus hiding?" (ignoring the white noise about the A380's business case and stupid "will the A380 actually fly?" threads).

A.net works in cycles on which manufacturer they "hate" (for lack of better term). First it was Boeing with the Sonic Cruiser and being "raped" by airlines, then it was Airbus with the A380 delays, tepid A350 mk1 response, and the 77W crushing the A346, then it swung back to Boeing with the 787 issues vs great A350XWB program management and Neo (specifically A321) vs Max (specifically -9). Eventually Airbus will stumble or face some difficulties while things look great for Boeing and the pendulum will swing again. Who knows, to drag this back on topic, maybe Boeing's MoM will generate ton of excitement and enthusiasm from airlines (and Y pax comfort! since A.net loves that) while Airbus's A321++ will be seen as low cost but inferior.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 2:34 pm

Polot wrote:
Of course it would have been a problem for Airbus. Airlines don't like it when their planes miss projections by 4-5%,


I agree - it would have been a problem for Airbus, but again, it would not have been Airbus' problem.

The contracts these days would put the financial penalties on the party who failed to deliver (in this hypothetical case the engine manufacturer). Yes, Airbus might not have seen the follow on orders they would have expected till a few PiPs were on wing, but so be it - maybe no bad thing given production ramp issues of new airframes recently.

In terms of engineering resource, Airbus would have "lost" very few people to the problem and they could easily move onto the next program - in this hypothetical case an A360 which would sit in the market around the A350-900 -> A350-1100 size.

Ironically given hindsight now, an A350mk1 along with a coming-down-the-track A360 might have allowed Airbus to pull the weights and range down on the A350mk1, really boxing in the MoM from the upper end (A350-800) and the lower end (A321 and now looks like A322).
 
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Polot
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 2:39 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
Ironically given hindsight now, an A350mk1 along with a coming-down-the-track A360 might have allowed Airbus to pull the weights and range down on the A350mk1, really boxing in the MoM from the upper end (A350-800) and the lower end (A321 and now looks like A322).

Eh, I have my doubts about that. The A350mk1 was fundamentally a re-engined A330 with a modified or new wing and more extensive use of composites (GLARE specifically iirc) in the fuselage depending on which version of the A350mk1 we are talking about. It's design (e.g., wing) would have been optimized for longer flights to be competitive against the 788/789. It probably wouldn't have been anymore successful at "boxing in" the MoM than the current A330-800 is.
Last edited by Polot on Thu May 11, 2017 2:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
texl1649
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 2:41 pm

zeke wrote:
texl1649 wrote:
No, your links had nothing to do with cash flow. "Troubles," or deferred costs, have no impact to my point. Boeing is paid and generates cash as aircraft are delivered, not as they are ordered. Almost none of the cash flow for 2018 thru 2022 that will come from working thru the backlog is allocated today to new r and d or other expenditures. It's available, as are any other way of financing (stock, bond issuances, borrowing.)


The economic slowdown is real, the reduction in production rates is real, the deferrals and cancellations are real, the layoffs are real. They all impact cash flow, that is what those links show.

Boeing has to account for the cost the tooling etc at some stage, they either have to take the hit when they were incurred (which they did not do, they would have posted massive losses) or defer those costs, it has chosen the latter. The deferred costs are like a credit card, they money has been spent, at some stage they will need to account for the expenses.

Each aircraft built does bring in cash when sold, but they also generate additional direct and indirect costs of production. One of the gambles Boeing is playing is did they price the aircraft so that the cash received exceeds the cost of production.



Again we're just talking past each other. The economic slowdown and layoffs are real, no issue with those assertions. Cash flow from the 737 sales is as well, and 77X cash flow is pretty easy to lay out in the mid-term. Boeing pays for tooling and costs as costs are incurred, accounting for those/writing down the costs has no impact on cash flow. If they wrote down 27 billion for the 787 line today, it wouldn't affect cash flow this quarter by one cent (although the stock buyback would actually get cheaper!) Greater than 90 percent of the cash from an aircraft sale is generated at payment for delivery, and yes they are going to continue to be profitable. The 787 cash flow is only accelerating with the -9 and -10 series coming up (Boeing doesn't want to sell any more -8 really).

Boeing is systematically phasing out it's over-reliance on Washington/IAM751 labor. This was a critical problem for them in the past and it's going to take a while further to fix. There will be negative press of course associated with this process, but it is long term going to be very valuable to the organization to move away from the toxic labor relationship it has to continue to deal with there. This doesn't mean the company can't pay it's bills/commitments or fund a new program though, which was my point, about which you asserted I lied (I'm not sure on what basis, but my assertion pertained to cash flow/financing ability).

Expanding on my point (regarding ability/willingness to move forward), I do think the real trigger is when Boeing is ready to conclude negotiations with two factions/contractors; GE and Pratt/Rolls, as indicated by the flightglobal March 9th article with comments from Udvar Hazy. Dual sourcing or sole sourcing the engine is a big deal, and also would impact availability/options for the Airbus response. I doubt the engine manufacturers or Boeing are actually dithering over what to do, but are negotiating aggressively, and that is what the real hold up/trigger is, not some fantastical "oh no, we can't afford to launch this development/model" issue.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... om-434961/
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 2:58 pm

Most (including me) assumed the A330 would be consumed by the Dreamliner in no time, when Airbus decided to refocus on the XWB. It did not happen, they sold a further 800 CEO's & 50-60/yr are produced even in 2017.

Back on topic, I think both Boeing and Airbus can get the funding if they want to start a new program if the business case looks reasonable.
Based on projected market growth, their track record and lack of further competition.
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BoeingVista
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 3:08 pm

Polot wrote:
Exactly proving my point. Boeing had excellent PR that convinced people that things were going well. I didn't say everyone fell for it ;) Meanwhile with Airbus the discussion was more "customer complexity (the initial excuse) can't possibly account for all these delays (in regards to the A380), what exactly is Airbus hiding?" (ignoring the white noise about the A380's business case and stupid "will the A380 actually fly?" threads).



What Boeing PR dept showed is that lies are easier to sell to simple minded people than explainations.
BV
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 3:12 pm

I think Airbus is content with $2B projects even it the future design is just evolutionary not revolutionary. On the other-hand Boeing is more into $12 Billion clean slate projects creeping up to $25 Billion.

Building bigger plane is easy, filling it no so much.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 3:13 pm

Polot wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
Ironically given hindsight now, an A350mk1 along with a coming-down-the-track A360 might have allowed Airbus to pull the weights and range down on the A350mk1, really boxing in the MoM from the upper end (A350-800) and the lower end (A321 and now looks like A322).

Eh, I have my doubts about that. The A350mk1 was fundamentally a re-engined A330 with a modified or new wing and more extensive use of composites (GLARE specifically iirc) in the fuselage depending on which version of the A350mk1 we are talking about. It's design (e.g., wing) would have been optimized for longer flights to be competitive against the 788/789. It probably wouldn't have been anymore successful at "boxing in" the MoM than the current A330-800 is.


I know. In 2005 yes, that's what would have happened.

But given where we are now - if Airbus, while in gestation of A350 mk1 had decided, "know what - this A350 doesn't cut it from all angles. We're going to do a follow on A360 which will compete with the 777 in payload range. So we can pull this A350 down to 6000nm max." more like somewhere between the A300 and A330ceo.
 
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Polot
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 3:24 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
[
But given where we are now - if Airbus, while in gestation of A350 mk1 had decided, "know what - this A350 doesn't cut it from all angles. We're going to do a follow on A360 which will compete with the 777 in payload range. So we can pull this A350 down to 6000nm max." more like somewhere between the A300 and A330ceo.

Ah, but at that time with the A380/A400M issues and rapid need for a response to the 777 Airbus would have never committed to that level of optimization for the A350 while also needing to build a whole brand new A360. Also depending on the size of the lower end of the A360 it leaves Airbus without a solid response to the 789 (which does sell). It would have been what we ultimately see now, a A360 (A350XWB) and re-engined A330 ("A350").

Nobody was thinking of the MoM then, everyone thought the A332/788 would be fine for the lower end and 757 TATL was still for the most part in its infancy. Engines are also an issue. We are starting to see talk of MoM now because engine manufacturers are looking at scaling the new tech in their new narrowbody engines up to higher thrusts. Your "A350" either requires suboptimal engines or convincing RR/GE to make an engine both smaller than the Trent 1000/GEnx (for the scaled down A350) and a larger engine (for the A360).
 
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BoeingVista
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 3:52 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
I think Airbus is content with $2B projects even it the future design is just evolutionary not revolutionary. On the other-hand Boeing is more into $12 Billion clean slate projects creeping up to $25 Billion.

Building bigger plane is easy, filling it no so much.


Boeing has nowhere to go with its 737, its 'MAX'd out, nor can it shrink the 787-8 to a point or price where it works as MoM aircraft. there are no real choices for them but a new build. Airbus on the other hand still believes the A320 has growth potential and that can be done for a fraction of the price of a new build at the same time as making the business case for MoM less attractive. The size of NB aircraft has been rising for 40 years the limiting factor for airlines at the moment is the OEM's dont build them any bigger.

With NB orders in the decline this is the time to strike out for the future of the large NB / MoM market.
BV
 
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seahawk
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 4:12 pm

Financing the 797 is no problem for Boeing outside of the books. The deferred costs for the 787 are already spent and they could be written off quickly, if they want to do 2-3 years with a negative book result but positive cash flow. Not good for management bonuses though.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 4:49 pm

Polot wrote:
Ah, but at that time with the A380/A400M issues and rapid need for a response to the 777 Airbus would have never committed to that level of optimization for the A350 while also needing to build a whole brand new A360. Also depending on the size of the lower end of the A360 it leaves Airbus without a solid response to the 789 (which does sell). It would have been what we ultimately see now, a A360 (A350XWB) and re-engined A330 ("A350").


The interesting thing is that they did commit to the A350 Mk1 (to the point of launching it and getting ~200 orders for it), so clearly they had some plan for the market bigger than A350 Mk1 and smaller than A380. At that point in time they may not have realized the degree to which the A340NG wasn't the answer, but they surely must have known that it would need replacing in the not too distant future, and I remember some speculation in that area. Unfortunately (but wisely) that's not a road map that they were sharing back then.
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Taxi645
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 5:03 pm

Polot wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
Ironically given hindsight now, an A350mk1 along with a coming-down-the-track A360 might have allowed Airbus to pull the weights and range down on the A350mk1, really boxing in the MoM from the upper end (A350-800) and the lower end (A321 and now looks like A322).

Eh, I have my doubts about that. The A350mk1 was fundamentally a re-engined A330 with a modified or new wing and more extensive use of composites (GLARE specifically iirc) in the fuselage depending on which version of the A350mk1 we are talking about. It's design (e.g., wing) would have been optimized for longer flights to be competitive against the 788/789. It probably wouldn't have been anymore successful at "boxing in" the MoM than the current A330-800 is.


CFRP and AL-Li fuselage, not really GLARE. Specifications are hard to find nowadays on the the A350 mark1. This site seems to be accurate: http://www.thaitechnics.com/aircraft/a350.html

So a 14-16 ton lower OEW compared to a A330 CEO. So I would agree with Amiga, a more suitable lighter platform/fuselage to differentiate from a 9 abreast A360 (comparable to the larger versions of the XWB) than the current A330.
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parapente
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 5:13 pm

ITMecure.
Yes I agree.It would be stupid not to at least take a good look at this route.I would be surprised if they weren't.I guess it's all about thrust and weight.If you 'do it' with an existing engine (GTF PIP)then you can 'steal' 2/4 years on Boeing.
Ok 4,300 nm might not be absolutely optimal (but look at Keejse's maps) it covers most routes and fuel is heavy stuff.Again it's all about using an existing engine as opposed to waiting for the new one which will be matched to Boeings time table by which time your advantage is totally lost.
 
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Polot
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 5:20 pm

Taxi645 wrote:
Polot wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
Ironically given hindsight now, an A350mk1 along with a coming-down-the-track A360 might have allowed Airbus to pull the weights and range down on the A350mk1, really boxing in the MoM from the upper end (A350-800) and the lower end (A321 and now looks like A322).

Eh, I have my doubts about that. The A350mk1 was fundamentally a re-engined A330 with a modified or new wing and more extensive use of composites (GLARE specifically iirc) in the fuselage depending on which version of the A350mk1 we are talking about. It's design (e.g., wing) would have been optimized for longer flights to be competitive against the 788/789. It probably wouldn't have been anymore successful at "boxing in" the MoM than the current A330-800 is.


CFRP and AL-Li fuselage, not really GLARE. Specifications are hard to find nowadays on the the A350 mark1. This site seems to be accurate: http://www.thaitechnics.com/aircraft/a350.html

So a 14-16 ton lower OEW compared to a A330 CEO. So I would agree with Amiga, a more suitable lighter platform/fuselage to differentiate from a 9 abreast A360 (comparable to the larger versions of the XWB) than the current A330.

Its hard to know whats accurate, because as you said finding specs about A350mk1 is hard. Wikipedia from April 2006 (right before change to XWB) suggests an empty weight similar (slightly higher in fact) than the A330: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?ti ... d=61436438

I'm a little suspicious of the empty weight numbers in your link because the plane has a MTOW ~3 ton higher than the A330 (I think difference was more than that based on the A330's MTOW in ~2005), same landing weight, ~8t saving from composites (re: 17,600 lbs), same wing, and would have larger engines and yet that plane has an empty weight ~14-16 t lower as you say. If 8t is from the composites were is the other 8t coming from? That is a lot of weight still left to remove. I'm not entirely convinced the author of the table did not subtract 17,600 (lbs) from a figure that was in kg.
 
fightforlove
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 5:44 pm

BoeingVista wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
I think Airbus is content with $2B projects even it the future design is just evolutionary not revolutionary. On the other-hand Boeing is more into $12 Billion clean slate projects creeping up to $25 Billion.

Building bigger plane is easy, filling it no so much.


Boeing has nowhere to go with its 737, its 'MAX'd out, nor can it shrink the 787-8 to a point or price where it works as MoM aircraft. there are no real choices for them but a new build. Airbus on the other hand still believes the A320 has growth potential and that can be done for a fraction of the price of a new build at the same time as making the business case for MoM less attractive. The size of NB aircraft has been rising for 40 years the limiting factor for airlines at the moment is the OEM's dont build them any bigger.

With NB orders in the decline this is the time to strike out for the future of the large NB / MoM market.


And that is the price Boeing is paying now for continuing to tirelessly re-vamp a 50-year-old airframe. I've said for years they needed a clean-sheet single-aisle domestic plane, yet they've continued to be beholden to Alaska Airlines, the Southwest pilots union, and a few other stubborn 737 operators. Outside these circles, most everyone else in the world acknowledges that A320 is the better plane: passengers like the cabin better, pilots prefer the joystick and Airbus flight deck commonality... No way can they take the 737 airframe any further without seeing further diminishing returns. This MoM prototype will be a very hot sale between American/United/Delta alone, they really need to learn from the 787 outsourcing mistakes and hit this one out of the park.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu May 11, 2017 7:30 pm

Can either one build a 150 seat 4500nm(excluding reserves) plane, which is relatively economical. Need not be as impressive as per seat of A380/B777X, but something airlines can operate without dishing out deep discounts.
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