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Amiga500
Posts: 2645
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:22 am

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu Jun 22, 2017 10:05 am

TP313 wrote:
The more I think about this matter, the more I think that Airbus will respond to MoM by going after the 737 - once and for all.


That makes an awful lot of sense. In fact when you think about it, its blindingly obvious.

Strike where the money is proven as being rather than where it *might* be. If Boeing were tied down doing a twin aisle, they cannot easily shove it downward in size.


About the only complication as far as Toulouse would be concerned, would be; how to prevent an A320.5 taking away sales from the (premium priced) A321. I suppose pitching the A320.5 at a price above the linear line between A320 and A321 would protect it somewhat.The trick would be getting more folks to upgauge from A320 than downgauge from A321.
 
sadiqutp
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu Jun 22, 2017 12:13 pm

Too confident ?
Airbus sales chief John Leahy said on Thursday Airbus would probably respond if Boeing launches a jet in the middle of the market and makes it a sales success, but that he did not think either of these things would happen.

Boeing has been talking about an aircraft seating around 220-270 people that could enter service in 2025.


http://www.reuters.com/article/airshow- ... SL8N1JJ1VE
 
Elementalism
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu Jun 22, 2017 12:50 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
TP313 wrote:
The more I think about this matter, the more I think that Airbus will respond to MoM by going after the 737 - once and for all.


That makes an awful lot of sense. In fact when you think about it, its blindingly obvious.

Strike where the money is proven as being rather than where it *might* be. If Boeing were tied down doing a twin aisle, they cannot easily shove it downward in size.


About the only complication as far as Toulouse would be concerned, would be; how to prevent an A320.5 taking away sales from the (premium priced) A321. I suppose pitching the A320.5 at a price above the linear line between A320 and A321 would protect it somewhat.The trick would be getting more folks to upgauge from A320 than downgauge from A321.


Im not seeing the advantage of building a similar capacity aircraft with 75% the range of a competitor. The airlines are asking for range, not capacity. So showing up with an inferior ranged same capacity aircraft looks like a recipe for disaster.

And I think you explained the issue with such an aircraft on the bottom end. It could eat into A321 sales.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu Jun 22, 2017 12:53 pm

A stretched 321 with new wings, with larger fuel tanks, and increased MTOW could be a better freight mover than the 797 wide body idea. the 797 should have a by the length limited number of LD3-45, having only a single row of them
The longer Airbus narrow body should be able to fit a higher number of the same LD3-45. The fuel weight would move out of the center into the wings avoiding ACTs. We would see a higher MTOW, perhaps in the range of 105t. There could be a higher MZFW due to having the fuel in the wings, rather than in the center.
One of the questions would be how heavy the wings would come out and if it would pay to have them in carbon fiber. What would the new patented one piece CFRP center wing box bring.
 
TP313
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu Jun 22, 2017 1:23 pm

Elementalism wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
TP313 wrote:
The more I think about this matter, the more I think that Airbus will respond to MoM by going after the 737 - once and for all.


That makes an awful lot of sense. In fact when you think about it, its blindingly obvious.

Strike where the money is proven as being rather than where it *might* be. If Boeing were tied down doing a twin aisle, they cannot easily shove it downward in size.


About the only complication as far as Toulouse would be concerned, would be; how to prevent an A320.5 taking away sales from the (premium priced) A321. I suppose pitching the A320.5 at a price above the linear line between A320 and A321 would protect it somewhat.The trick would be getting more folks to upgauge from A320 than downgauge from A321.


Im not seeing the advantage of building a similar capacity aircraft with 75% the range of a competitor. The airlines are asking for range, not capacity. So showing up with an inferior ranged same capacity aircraft looks like a recipe for disaster.

And I think you explained the issue with such an aircraft on the bottom end. It could eat into A321 sales.



I think you don't understand my point. What I'm saying is that airbus will most likely not respond to MoM launch with another
offer in "MoM market" capacity or rangewise.
It should be a short/medium haul competitor to the 737, where ranges that are far above 4000 nm make no sense whatsoever.
it is in fact a 320/321 replacement. It will not coexist with current 320/321neo, it will replace it and it could kill the 737-8/10.
In such plan there will not be an Airbus competitor to MoM. The competition instead will be in the strategic assignment of
development resources.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu Jun 22, 2017 4:27 pm

Elementalism wrote:
Im not seeing the advantage of building a similar capacity aircraft with 75% the range of a competitor.


It wouldn't be aimed at the MoM at all. They'd be gunning for the 737-8.
 
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Polot
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu Jun 22, 2017 4:43 pm

TP313 wrote:
The more I think about this matter, the more I think that Airbus will respond to MoM by going after the 737 - once and for all.

So while Boeing commits to spend above $10 Billion on another "moonshot", Airbus, investing half of that, with a rewing, small stretches
and essentially the same engines, develops a family of two A320 derivatives:

- A 200 seat (single class) with 4000+ nm range @170~180 pax

- A 250 seat (single class) with 4000+ nm range @210~220 pax

Such plane would put the 737 in serious trouble, while Boeing with their hands tied with funding the development of a "modern day 767", couldn't
do a thing to respond in the short/medium range market.

That's what I would do if I was in Airbus place.


The problem is all those A320neo/A321neo customers may not be willing to move over (to the smaller plane) so soon after taking delivery of their new jets. A 4000+ nm range @170~180 pax jet is also less optimized for the lower range segment of the market. The A321LR/MOM is getting a lot of attention, but keep in mind most A320/737s are flying <3000 nm routes.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu Jun 22, 2017 6:31 pm

How much better can a tube, wings, and two engines be than the current 320/737? They are pretty perfected. Boeings counter could be a 797 that is efficient down to 2000-2500 miles, and a much cheaper 737. Airbus needs to counter with this in mind, and obviously they will.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
TP313
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu Jun 22, 2017 10:25 pm

As for 4000nm being to much for the smaller plane in the family, we are already at 3600+ nm for the 200 seaters, both A and B.
With composite wings the extra 500nm would be doable without compromising the shorter route performance.

A 767 class plane that is efficient down to 2000-2500 miles? We know what happened to them: the A321.

A much cheaper 737? Boeing is already spending more money with the MAX just to stay competitive with the NEO,
I think a new wing would just make airbus spend a little more than Boeing on their narrowbody family for the whole of
a decade, while Boeing begins to spend a fortune with the MoM. Good luck with that "price war"
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Fri Jun 23, 2017 5:03 am

Polot wrote:
TP313 wrote:
The more I think about this matter, the more I think that Airbus will respond to MoM by going after the 737 - once and for all.

So while Boeing commits to spend above $10 Billion on another "moonshot", Airbus, investing half of that, with a rewing, small stretches
and essentially the same engines, develops a family of two A320 derivatives:

- A 200 seat (single class) with 4000+ nm range @170~180 pax

- A 250 seat (single class) with 4000+ nm range @210~220 pax

Such plane would put the 737 in serious trouble, while Boeing with their hands tied with funding the development of a "modern day 767", couldn't
do a thing to respond in the short/medium range market.

That's what I would do if I was in Airbus place.


The problem is all those A320neo/A321neo customers may not be willing to move over (to the smaller plane) so soon after taking delivery of their new jets. A 4000+ nm range @170~180 pax jet is also less optimized for the lower range segment of the market. The A321LR/MOM is getting a lot of attention, but keep in mind most A320/737s are flying <3000 nm routes.


The new A322/323 would be in addition to the A321. Need 5,000 nm take the A322 otherwise the A321. Need more than 200 pax in 2 classes ke the A323.
 
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BoeingVista
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Fri Jun 23, 2017 6:36 am

Amiga500 wrote:
Elementalism wrote:
Im not seeing the advantage of building a similar capacity aircraft with 75% the range of a competitor.


It wouldn't be aimed at the MoM at all. They'd be gunning for the 737-8.


Yup, Airbus would be looking to end the -8 and stall the -10 momentum, by building a better A321 and stretching the A230GEN3 into small MOM territory.

Airbus lost PAS17 to the -10, that may not have been a great idea for Boeing, the duopoly has been very careful not to attack the others cash cow head on up till now, although to be fair that probably wasn't Boeing intention, the -9 was so abject the rush of conversions was more a sigh of relief from customers.
BV
 
parapente
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Fri Jun 23, 2017 9:09 am

I do wonder whether Airbus is going for a 'death by a thousand cuts' route (not trying to be dramatic!)
I read on the 320 production thread that the new engines/electronics have allowed for better t/o performance.Plus a 'skid' and greater deflection angles on the tail.
I also noted on the Runwaygirl' website a whole new interior that is to be phased in over 3 years.Yup ;much) bigger bins and state of the art ceiling lighting but also resculptured side walls creating an extra 1 in each side.
Also some of their latest developments are not (I think) even out.The new exit door arrangements to allow 240 pax and of course the new LR 321 is still a year away.
Proper tops was only approved yesterday (180).
So they might as well get that lad sorted first!
But I wonder whether they don't have another bag of tricks up Their sleeves.What might they announce in Farnbrough.
We know they have the monolithic carbon box section.We know they are playing around with fuse 'bump' just in front of the leading edge root (t/o performance).
They are clearly only just getting started!
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Sun Jun 25, 2017 2:58 pm

If Airbus develops a new larger wing to add additional capacity & range to the A320NEO family, it wouldn't do so for just one variant.

It would aim at a new family of variants including next decade payload - range and cargo opportunities.

Image

Keeping everything lean, mean and affordable would be key program drivers. E.g. using NEO engine upgrades.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Sun Jun 25, 2017 3:48 pm

keesje wrote:
If Airbus develops a new larger wing to add additional capacity & range to the A320NEO family, it wouldn't do so for just one variant.

It would aim at a new family of variants including next decade payload - range and cargo opportunities.

Image

Keeping everything lean, mean and affordable would be key program drivers. E.g. using NEO engine upgrades.


At that point, they might as well build an all new plane in my opinion. Larger wing, bigger fuselage, likely systems component resizing, new interior, stronger landing gear, more powerful engines, modern avionics, modernized flight controls... An all new plane may be better than an A320Dumbo (to steal a term from someone else). They can reuse as much as they can from the A320 and make a plane truly optimized for the mission kind of like the A300 to A330 transition.
 
parapente
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Sun Jun 25, 2017 4:16 pm

For the 'full on'797 that Boeing are describing (250 pax 2 class and 5,000+nm) the base competition that they would measure their concept against (in many ways no doubt) would naturally be a heavily reworked and rewinged A320.One imagines they would need to be 100% confident they could beat that or the whole project would be a waste of time IMHO.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Sun Jun 25, 2017 4:16 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:

At that point, they might as well build an all new plane in my opinion. Larger wing, bigger fuselage, likely systems component resizing, new interior, stronger landing gear, more powerful engines, modern avionics, modernized flight controls... An all new plane may be better than an A320Dumbo (to steal a term from someone else). They can reuse as much as they can from the A320 and make a plane truly optimized for the mission kind of like the A300 to A330 transition.


I disagree with you. Stretching the fuselage, new wings, keeping the systems, neo-engines thrust bump and MTOW increase - it's all very minor compared to developing an all new aircraft. The most costly upgrade would be the wings, but they could be applied to all of the series like Keesje says. I don't believe new avionics and flight deck is necessary, maybe just a small refresh while maintaining commonality across the A320-series. I can imagine Airbus would be looking at an A320 stretch to give it the same capacity as the 738, (like Boeing did with the 737-700 -> 737-7) as well as a new A322 size above the A321. Larger, more efficient wings that can hold more fuel would give it better range and better fuel burn. I would be surprised if the combined cost would be more than 25% of an all-new program.
 
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Finn350
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Sun Jun 25, 2017 4:27 pm

The problem with bringing new wing down from A322 to smaller variants is that it would not fit into NB gates any longer which would be a major drawback. Unless they use folding wingtips or something for the new wing in the first place.
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Sun Jun 25, 2017 5:09 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
keesje wrote:
If Airbus develops a new larger wing to add additional capacity & range to the A320NEO family, it wouldn't do so for just one variant.

It would aim at a new family of variants including next decade payload - range and cargo opportunities.

Image

Keeping everything lean, mean and affordable would be key program drivers. E.g. using NEO engine upgrades.


At that point, they might as well build an all new plane in my opinion. Larger wing, bigger fuselage, likely systems component resizing, new interior, stronger landing gear, more powerful engines, modern avionics, modernized flight controls... An all new plane may be better than an A320Dumbo (to steal a term from someone else). They can reuse as much as they can from the A320 and make a plane truly optimized for the mission kind of like the A300 to A330 transition.


They will build something new at some point, but that is likely years away. Something to replace their A330, but likely smaller. Sales and Boeing's responds suggest there still life in the A321, to state it mildly. Short time to market, low unit costs, sharp pricing and fleet commonality will be key drivers a new aircraft will find hard to match.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Devilfish
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Sun Jun 25, 2017 5:36 pm

It looks like the fly would make the A323 a little tail-heavy..... :veryhappy:
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
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Boeing778X
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Sun Jun 25, 2017 6:24 pm

keesje wrote:
If Airbus develops a new larger wing to add additional capacity & range to the A320NEO family, it wouldn't do so for just one variant.

It would aim at a new family of variants including next decade payload - range and cargo opportunities.

Image

Keeping everything lean, mean and affordable would be key program drivers. E.g. using NEO engine upgrades.


A rewinged A321neo and A322 with the same wing and new engines would work just fine. Anything bigger is ridiculous.
United Airlines: $#!ttin' On Everyone Since 1931
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Sun Jun 25, 2017 6:38 pm

Boeing778X wrote:
keesje wrote:
If Airbus develops a new larger wing to add additional capacity & range to the A320NEO family, it wouldn't do so for just one variant.

It would aim at a new family of variants including next decade payload - range and cargo opportunities.

...

Keeping everything lean, mean and affordable would be key program drivers. E.g. using NEO engine upgrades.


A rewinged A321neo and A322 with the same wing and new engines would work just fine. Anything bigger is ridiculous.


What would be ridiculous about a 200 seat cabin in a more typical Trans Atlantic cabin lay out (flat beds, full size galleys & lavatories, crew rest etc.. ?

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Sun Jun 25, 2017 9:03 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:

At that point, they might as well build an all new plane in my opinion. Larger wing, bigger fuselage, likely systems component resizing, new interior, stronger landing gear, more powerful engines, modern avionics, modernized flight controls... An all new plane may be better than an A320Dumbo (to steal a term from someone else). They can reuse as much as they can from the A320 and make a plane truly optimized for the mission kind of like the A300 to A330 transition.


I disagree with you. Stretching the fuselage, new wings, keeping the systems, neo-engines thrust bump and MTOW increase - it's all very minor compared to developing an all new aircraft. The most costly upgrade would be the wings, but they could be applied to all of the series like Keesje says. I don't believe new avionics and flight deck is necessary, maybe just a small refresh while maintaining commonality across the A320-series. I can imagine Airbus would be looking at an A320 stretch to give it the same capacity as the 738, (like Boeing did with the 737-700 -> 737-7) as well as a new A322 size above the A321. Larger, more efficient wings that can hold more fuel would give it better range and better fuel burn. I would be surprised if the combined cost would be more than 25% of an all-new program.


I could see an A322 with a wing root and / or wing tip extension so I think we agree there. Keesje proposed two versions with and A322 and A323. An A323 may be a bit too much. The systems architecture might have to change quite a bit. For example is there enough hydraulic and pneumatic power available or will those have to be up sized. Will new IDGs be required for the higher power load. Will the APU put off enough power or will it need to be up sized? Are new air conditioning packs required? Does the PW1100G have enough thrust or will a bigger engine and fan combination be required? Will the empennage grow? Will stronger and taller gear be required? The A321 has a 2000 sq. Ft. Wing. Now I would expect an expanded wing to be more efficient than the 757 wing, but the 757 wing is 3000 sq ft. If the A322/A323 wing matches the area of the 757, how many of the systems on the A320 family would have to get up sized if the wing size goes up 50%?

I can see a modest A322 stretch, but going even bigger to an A323 while increasing range and payload might be more than makes sense under the existing type certificate. The 777x was barely able to keep the 777 type certificate.

I am not an expert on the A320 so that is why I have lots of questions on whether an A323 would really be better optimized as an A320 family stretch or if it would end up as an overweight and uncompetitive stretch like the A346. I don't know. I am not arguing against a modest stretch and MTOW increase in the form of an A322, but is an A323 under the existing A320 type certificate as viable of an option?
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Sun Jun 25, 2017 9:37 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
keesje wrote:
If Airbus develops a new larger wing to add additional capacity & range to the A320NEO family, it wouldn't do so for just one variant.

It would aim at a new family of variants including next decade payload - range and cargo opportunities.

Image

Keeping everything lean, mean and affordable would be key program drivers. E.g. using NEO engine upgrades.


At that point, they might as well build an all new plane in my opinion. Larger wing, bigger fuselage, likely systems component resizing, new interior, stronger landing gear, more powerful engines, modern avionics, modernized flight controls... An all new plane may be better than an A320Dumbo (to steal a term from someone else). They can reuse as much as they can from the A320 and make a plane truly optimized for the mission kind of like the A300 to A330 transition.


The A320 family has about the most modern flight controls and avionics already. The A320 pioneered the transition to modern flight controls. The A330 got the A320 flight controls at the transition from the A300 and both have been upgraded through the years. The only point missing compared to the A350 is camber adjustment during flight, could be added with a redesigned wing. The A320 has a relatively high MLG, I assume it is possible to strengthen it, a double bogie has been done once before. A more electric wing, with electro hydraulic actuators, is being tested for use in the A320 family. I do not thing there is a need for Airbus to go to a new frame.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:02 am

Still the design core is still from the 1970ies, the materials are old school, the design is old school the aerodynamics are not up to modern standards, the fuselage is not smooth due to the many rivets,....
 
scotron11
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:36 am

seahawk wrote:
Still the design core is still from the 1970ies, the materials are old school, the design is old school the aerodynamics are not up to modern standards, the fuselage is not smooth due to the many rivets,....


And the 737-10 is from much earlier!
 
astuteman
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:38 am

BoeingVista wrote:
Airbus lost PAS17 to the -10, that may not have been a great idea for Boeing, the duopoly has been very careful not to attack the others cash cow head on up till now, although to be fair that probably wasn't Boeing intention, the -9 was so abject the rush of conversions was more a sigh of relief from customers.


I don't read it quite as dramatically as that, to be honest. I have no intention of either starting, or participating in the type of discussion that locked the Boeing orders thread, but..

By my reading, the 737-10 ended up with 242 firm orders, 199 of which were conversions, plus 90- odd MOU's/LOI's/commitments.

Boeing can take 43 of those orders to the bank.
The 199 conversions were already taken to the bank some time age - they will not alter the MAX bottom line order number.
What they do show is that at least 199 existing orders would already have been MAX-10's if it had existed, and would likely have appeared in the order book years ago.

The 90- odd LOI's/MOU's/"commitments"?
Well they also demonstrate the appeal of the MAX-10 - they shouldn't be ignored.
The issue here is no-one knows how long it will take to convert these into orders.
Most should get converted by the end of this calendar year if history is anything to go by.

But what that essentially does is "sell forward" most of this year's sales i.e. we've already counted these when they finally arrive in the O+D spreadsheet.
In the meantime, the competitor aircraft (in this case the A321 NEO) will continue to gain orders in the same period.
So a "like-for-like" comparison isn't really possibly until all of these "commitments" appear in the order book.

I point all this out to show that, whilst the 737-10 had a great launch, and I think it is the right product in the MAX range, when you get under the skin, not an awful lot has actually changed (in my opinion). At least the 737-10 is a competitive airframe - that has changed.
But "competitive" is all it is.
IMO the A321NEO is still a more complete all-round product.
Similar economics, fractionally higher capacity, better field performance, and greater range.
The 737-10 hasn't either "taken the initiative away from Airbus", nor "forces Airbus to respond"

Stand aside any partisan rhetoric about number crunching, those are realities I think most moderate posters will recognise.

Rgds
 
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seahawk
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Mon Jun 26, 2017 6:06 am

scotron11 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Still the design core is still from the 1970ies, the materials are old school, the design is old school the aerodynamics are not up to modern standards, the fuselage is not smooth due to the many rivets,....


And the 737-10 is from much earlier!


And it is surely not going to beat the A321, only reduce the advantage of the A321.
 
350helmi
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Mon Jun 26, 2017 7:17 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:

At that point, they might as well build an all new plane in my opinion. Larger wing, bigger fuselage, likely systems component resizing, new interior, stronger landing gear, more powerful engines, modern avionics, modernized flight controls... An all new plane may be better than an A320Dumbo (to steal a term from someone else). They can reuse as much as they can from the A320 and make a plane truly optimized for the mission kind of like the A300 to A330 transition.


I disagree with you. Stretching the fuselage, new wings, keeping the systems, neo-engines thrust bump and MTOW increase - it's all very minor compared to developing an all new aircraft. The most costly upgrade would be the wings, but they could be applied to all of the series like Keesje says. I don't believe new avionics and flight deck is necessary, maybe just a small refresh while maintaining commonality across the A320-series. I can imagine Airbus would be looking at an A320 stretch to give it the same capacity as the 738, (like Boeing did with the 737-700 -> 737-7) as well as a new A322 size above the A321. Larger, more efficient wings that can hold more fuel would give it better range and better fuel burn. I would be surprised if the combined cost would be more than 25% of an all-new program.


I could see an A322 with a wing root and / or wing tip extension so I think we agree there. Keesje proposed two versions with and A322 and A323. An A323 may be a bit too much. The systems architecture might have to change quite a bit. For example is there enough hydraulic and pneumatic power available or will those have to be up sized. Will new IDGs be required for the higher power load. Will the APU put off enough power or will it need to be up sized? Are new air conditioning packs required? Does the PW1100G have enough thrust or will a bigger engine and fan combination be required? Will the empennage grow? Will stronger and taller gear be required? The A321 has a 2000 sq. Ft. Wing. Now I would expect an expanded wing to be more efficient than the 757 wing, but the 757 wing is 3000 sq ft. If the A322/A323 wing matches the area of the 757, how many of the systems on the A320 family would have to get up sized if the wing size goes up 50%?

I can see a modest A322 stretch, but going even bigger to an A323 while increasing range and payload might be more than makes sense under the existing type certificate. The 777x was barely able to keep the 777 type certificate.

I am not an expert on the A320 so that is why I have lots of questions on whether an A323 would really be better optimized as an A320 family stretch or if it would end up as an overweight and uncompetitive stretch like the A346. I don't know. I am not arguing against a modest stretch and MTOW increase in the form of an A322, but is an A323 under the existing A320 type certificate as viable of an option?


I think what keesje was implying was A322=A321 fuse with bigger wings, A323=a stretch of the A321 fuse with same wings as A322. That is how I could see this being a good investment, rather than stretching the A321 fuse twice. At some point even the A320 family has to run into the same problems that the 737 has with rotation angles and takeoff performance. I would expect to see a double bogey on these new variants and a MTOW increase to around 107-110t. The bogey could well be a strengthened version of what there is now with the double axel to spread the load better and increase breaking performance. I've read somewhere, can't remember where exactly, that braking performance isn the limiting factor for A321 takeoff performance. Better breaks would mean that it could use shorter runways since not as much room would be needed to stop from V1 speed. I believe this would be a viable option for Airbus to regain the pricing power it had on the A321 before the 7310 launch. I'm sure they will wait till boing cannot get out of building the MAX 10 before launching.

350helmi
 
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Mon Jun 26, 2017 7:39 am

Finn350 wrote:
The problem with bringing new wing down from A322 to smaller variants is that it would not fit into NB gates any longer which would be a major drawback. Unless they use folding wingtips or something for the new wing in the first place.


Not really, there are a lot of 757 / 767 gates around but very few 757 / 767's

350helmi wrote:
[I think what keesje was implying was A322=A321 fuse with bigger wings, A323=a stretch of the A321 fuse with same wings as A322. That is how I could see this being a good investment, rather than stretching the A321 fuse twice. At some point even the A320 family has to run into the same problems that the 737 has with rotation angles and takeoff performance. I would expect to see a double bogey on these new variants and a MTOW increase to around 107-110t. The bogey could well be a strengthened version of what there is now with the double axel to spread the load better and increase breaking performance. I've read somewhere, can't remember where exactly, that braking performance isn the limiting factor for A321 takeoff performance. Better breaks would mean that it could use shorter runways since not as much room would be needed to stop from V1 speed. I believe this would be a viable option for Airbus to regain the pricing power it had on the A321 before the 7310 launch. I'm sure they will wait till boing cannot get out of building the MAX 10 before launching.

350helmi


The A320 will also be stretched to take capacity to greater than the 737-8
BV
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Mon Jun 26, 2017 8:00 am

seahawk wrote:
Still the design core is still from the 1970ies, the materials are old school, the design is old school the aerodynamics are not up to modern standards, the fuselage is not smooth due to the many rivets,....


That would depend on what you include or exclude when you talk about core. Yes the fuselage is from aluminium and rivet together, I would even say that is technology from the second world war and that the A320 will share with the 777-8/9 when that modern frame will see the light of the day. Aerodynamics? I would not agree that that is from the 1970ies as I would say even on the 737MAX the aerodynamics are not from the 1970ies or 1960ies, to much work done on it since. But than it comes to in my opinion the most important core, flight control and here the A320 is 21st century, on par with the most modern frames including the 787 and A350.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Mon Jun 26, 2017 8:08 am

There is a simple solution for rotation problems with a stretched A321, you put an double bogie on the MLG and lock it during rotation. Yes the double bogie used formerly on the A320 is out of production, but how should that stop Airbus from making a new one?
 
RickNRoll
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Mon Jun 26, 2017 8:23 am

KarelXWB wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
The comment regarding Airbus saying the A310 proving twin aisle jets can't easily compete in that part of the market is probably marketing spin since Airbus doesn't have a viable widebody option amd wants to promote A321 stretch.


The interesting part is that Airbus and Boeing will avoid direct competition in this market segment. An A321 stretch would be like a 757-300 single aisle plane, while Boeing's MOM product will be a 767 style twin aisle plane.


The 767 outlasted the 757.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:01 am

RickNRoll wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
The comment regarding Airbus saying the A310 proving twin aisle jets can't easily compete in that part of the market is probably marketing spin since Airbus doesn't have a viable widebody option amd wants to promote A321 stretch.


The interesting part is that Airbus and Boeing will avoid direct competition in this market segment. An A321 stretch would be like a 757-300 single aisle plane, while Boeing's MOM product will be a 767 style twin aisle plane.


The 767 outlasted the 757.
Not really, freighters and now tankers yes, but passenger versions in very limited numbers since the 757 was closed down. A few each year and non since 2014.
 
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:21 am

And most as a stop-gap for the delayed 787.
 
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Mon Jun 26, 2017 12:08 pm

keesje wrote:
If Airbus develops a new larger wing to add additional capacity & range to the A320NEO family, it wouldn't do so for just one variant.

It would aim at a new family of variants including next decade payload - range and cargo opportunities.

Image

Keeping everything lean, mean and affordable would be key program drivers. E.g. using NEO engine upgrades.

Could you please provide some detail of these two models you show here - what is the difference between the two (other than the fly :duck:) Counting windows it is what, a four frame stretch (two ahead of the wing, two behind) from the 322 to the 323?

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
billreid
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Mon Jun 26, 2017 12:47 pm

ROFL. Any upgrades to an older bird that has already been upgraded umpteem times is like comparing my 2008 Volvo to a brand new 2017 Volvo. The A321 NEO/NEO/New Wing option will face the exact same problems the B737 faces when fighting against the A320 series. It's simply a newer design.

The boys and Girls at AB know full well that there is little to do to fight against a 20year newer design without a cleansheet from themselves. WEverything BA will do will be exactly what AB did with the A320 series. There will be improvements on weight, range, comfort, economies over the A321 version that AB is selling as the MOM. A new MOM will do the same to the A321 to what the A321 did to the B757. We love that airplane but it remains old technology.

Same applies to the A321 series. My suggestion is take the A321 build a new wing, a new cockpit, a new tail, a new fuselage, new engines, new interior new aerodynamics and then you can compete with a new MOM from Boeing, otherwise accept to losing the battle.
Some people don't get it. Business is about making MONEY!
 
Strato2
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:03 pm

billreid wrote:
ROFL. Any upgrades to an older bird that has already been upgraded umpteem times is like comparing my 2008 Volvo to a brand new 2017 Volvo. The A321 NEO/NEO/New Wing option will face the exact same problems the B737 faces when fighting against the A320 series. It's simply a newer design.


The A320 has not been upgraded many times. It has now received it''s first upgrade roughly of equivalent to 737 Classic. Classic got pummeled by the A320 but 737NG restored the rough parity. There's no reason to believe a re-winged A320 could not hold it's own on anything Boeing throws at it short of some revolutionary concept like BWB.
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:35 pm

billreid wrote:
ROFL. Any upgrades to an older bird that has already been upgraded umpteem times is like comparing my 2008 Volvo to a brand new 2017 Volvo. The A321 NEO/NEO/New Wing option will face the exact same problems the B737 faces when fighting against the A320 series. It's simply a newer design.

The boys and Girls at AB know full well that there is little to do to fight against a 20year newer design without a cleansheet from themselves. WEverything BA will do will be exactly what AB did with the A320 series. There will be improvements on weight, range, comfort, economies over the A321 version that AB is selling as the MOM. A new MOM will do the same to the A321 to what the A321 did to the B757. We love that airplane but it remains old technology.

Same applies to the A321 series. My suggestion is take the A321 build a new wing, a new cockpit, a new tail, a new fuselage, new engines, new interior new aerodynamics and then you can compete with a new MOM from Boeing, otherwise accept to losing the battle.

I think what is often overlooked here is that there isn't some sort of prize for selling the most aircraft; it isn't the Olympic Games of aviation sales in spite of the amount of energy expended on talking about an orders race. What really counts is return on investment. What we see from the 737 v A320 competition is that the 737, which is a 20 year older base design, is maintaining approximately a 40% share. Let's assume this would hold true for an A322/323 versus an all-new 797 and run some basic numbers. If the market is assumed to be approximately 2000 aircraft, then 40% is 800 aircraft, versus 50 % being 1000 aircraft. So the question is, do those extra 200 aircraft justify the amount of investment needed to do a clean sheet versus an upgraded A32x? That depends on how much a clean sheet design would cost to bring to market compared to an upgraded A32x. One thing is for sure, outside of the offices of Airbus it will be very difficult for us to work out which is the right strategy for them. Even inside the offices, there is enough uncertainty in these things that the strategy they chose won't guarantee success.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
Amiga500
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:38 pm

billreid wrote:
ROFL. Any upgrades to an older bird that has already been upgraded umpteem times is like comparing my 2008 Volvo to a brand new 2017 Volvo.


Your ironically kinda right.

How long would you have to run a 2017 Volvo before you'd make up the difference in fuel costs that would justify selling your 2008 model and buying a 2017 model? (of roughly equivalent spec)


Yes, a new aircraft (same as the new car) will make improvements in various areas - but they will all be pretty incremental. But will those improvements add up to a greater sum than the extra build/buy cost? That *is* one of the large questions Boeing are wrestling with. I don't envy them.
Last edited by Amiga500 on Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:39 pm

VirginFlyer wrote:
keesje wrote:
If Airbus develops a new larger wing to add additional capacity & range to the A320NEO family, it wouldn't do so for just one variant.

It would aim at a new family of variants including next decade payload - range and cargo opportunities.

Image

Keeping everything lean, mean and affordable would be key program drivers. E.g. using NEO engine upgrades.

Could you please provide some detail of these two models you show here - what is the difference between the two (other than the fly :duck:) Counting windows it is what, a four frame stretch (two ahead of the wing, two behind) from the 322 to the 323?

V/F


Originally (5-6 yrs ago) I assumed Boeing would go for a smaller sized 737-900ER/757 replacement and Airbus would go with a moderate NEO upgrade, increasing capacity-range. http://www.cardatabase.net/modifiedairlinerphotos/search/photo_search.php?id=00015369

Something slightly different than I expected happened. Airbus indeed seems to go for a new wing/ stretch A322. But, they upgraded the A321NEO into an LR, an A321NEO on steroids. Didn't expect that there would be growth left in the A321.

Giving that situation and Boeing upping their NMA offering to stay out of the A321 onslaught (A320 backlog contains 2700 A321s, not the "official" 1700..), the market segment under the MoM has grown.

That justifies IMO a slightly larger A322 / A323. With a slightly larger capacity, range and thus wing, MTOW etc. Airlines can select the A321LR if they need. However the A321LR is, like the 757, unpleasantly restricted for e.g. Transatlantic and you have to struggle if you want a significant business class (beds) cabin in, together with crew rests, full size galleys,' lavatories, 32 inch pitch etc. This isn't LCC territory.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
parapente
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:39 pm

In a years time (maybe) Boeing will officially launch its 797 MOM.Then they will invite the 3 big engine OEM's to pitch for the biz.Some time later one or two will win (this bleedless engine).In 2030 it will EIS.We know from the 787 programme just how (extra) long it took to get the engines to spec.
So any response by Airbus will have to wait a very long time for their power units!So their response is what it is right now -do nothing.And that's not going to need to change for quite a while - or even longer if they choose to simply re wing the 320.They will still have to wait for the engines.
As far as I can see the only thing they could do soonish if they wanted to shrink the MOM gap a little further, is to do a small stretch and trade it for range.ie a 753 type beast.Even then there is no point in doing even that unless it equals new sales they would not have otherwise got with the A321NEO.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:52 pm

astuteman wrote:
BoeingVista wrote:
Airbus lost PAS17 to the -10, that may not have been a great idea for Boeing, the duopoly has been very careful not to attack the others cash cow head on up till now, although to be fair that probably wasn't Boeing intention, the -9 was so abject the rush of conversions was more a sigh of relief from customers.


I don't read it quite as dramatically as that, to be honest. I have no intention of either starting, or participating in the type of discussion that locked the Boeing orders thread, but..

By my reading, the 737-10 ended up with 242 firm orders, 199 of which were conversions, plus 90- odd MOU's/LOI's/commitments.

Boeing can take 43 of those orders to the bank.
The 199 conversions were already taken to the bank some time age - they will not alter the MAX bottom line order number.
What they do show is that at least 199 existing orders would already have been MAX-10's if it had existed, and would likely have appeared in the order book years ago.

The 90- odd LOI's/MOU's/"commitments"?
Well they also demonstrate the appeal of the MAX-10 - they shouldn't be ignored.
The issue here is no-one knows how long it will take to convert these into orders.
Most should get converted by the end of this calendar year if history is anything to go by.

But what that essentially does is "sell forward" most of this year's sales i.e. we've already counted these when they finally arrive in the O+D spreadsheet.
In the meantime, the competitor aircraft (in this case the A321 NEO) will continue to gain orders in the same period.
So a "like-for-like" comparison isn't really possibly until all of these "commitments" appear in the order book.

I point all this out to show that, whilst the 737-10 had a great launch, and I think it is the right product in the MAX range, when you get under the skin, not an awful lot has actually changed (in my opinion). At least the 737-10 is a competitive airframe - that has changed.
But "competitive" is all it is.
IMO the A321NEO is still a more complete all-round product.
Similar economics, fractionally higher capacity, better field performance, and greater range.
The 737-10 hasn't either "taken the initiative away from Airbus", nor "forces Airbus to respond"

Stand aside any partisan rhetoric about number crunching, those are realities I think most moderate posters will recognise.

Rgds


First of all, bless you.

Second, I would say that any Boeing "victory" at PAS17 was more an emotional one than a financial one. They've been beat up for so long in the NEO v MAX competition (in the market and on A.net) that it's like a breath of fresh air for people to admit that Boeing has a plane that airlines are clamoring for. Certainly "clamoring" is relative, and almost over-stated when contrasted with the A321neo success story, but still it was positive affirmation for a program and builder that needed the boost.

To make it more than what it is, or to attempt to beat it back down into submission - well, hopefully as you say we can avoid locking another thread.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:52 pm

parapente wrote:
In a years time (maybe) Boeing will officially launch its 797 MOM.Then they will invite the 3 big engine OEM's to pitch for the biz.


I would be fairly shocked if the launch didn't include the engine OEMs.

6th April 2004
https://www.geaviation.com/press-releas ... r-aircraft


26th April 2004
http://boeing.mediaroom.com/2004-04-26- ... Dreamliner
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:53 pm

Strato2 wrote:
billreid wrote:
ROFL. Any upgrades to an older bird that has already been upgraded umpteem times is like comparing my 2008 Volvo to a brand new 2017 Volvo. The A321 NEO/NEO/New Wing option will face the exact same problems the B737 faces when fighting against the A320 series. It's simply a newer design.


The A320 has not been upgraded many times. It has now received it''s first upgrade roughly of equivalent to 737 Classic. Classic got pummeled by the A320 but 737NG restored the rough parity. There's no reason to believe a re-winged A320 could not hold it's own on anything Boeing throws at it short of some revolutionary concept like BWB.


Do we understand upgrade the same way? The A320ceo 2017 is very different from the A320 1988. One does not have to go to a new model name or collect the changes in a packet to make a big splash when they are rolled out to make upgrades be upgrades. There is even a point when some changes moved the A320-100 to the A320-200. But since than Airbus has run a politic of making small changes all the time without changing numbers. 2006 a series of planned improvements were called the A320E or enhanced.
Just to name some thing, the avionics were upgraded several times, both the software as well as the hardware, there both the cockpit instruments as well as the flight computers. Aerodynamics have been worked over, including but not limited to, first wing fences and later the sharklets. MTOW increased, fuel amount increased, MTOW and range increased.
The neo is really only the change to the GTW and LEAP engines, other changes have been done before or are in the pipeline.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Mon Jun 26, 2017 4:13 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Do we understand upgrade the same way? The A320ceo 2017 is very different from the A320 1988.


Yep, but todays A320 contains more or less the same wing structure with more or less the same outer mould line as the 1988 A320. OK, tweaks to the belly fairing have taken place, as have winglet modifications.

The 737 classic got a work over on the wing relative to the original. Extended span, new LE and TE.
The 737NG got a completely new wing.
The 737 MAX only got new engines and a winglet change.
 
astuteman
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:02 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
astuteman wrote:
BoeingVista wrote:
Airbus lost PAS17 to the -10, that may not have been a great idea for Boeing, the duopoly has been very careful not to attack the others cash cow head on up till now, although to be fair that probably wasn't Boeing intention, the -9 was so abject the rush of conversions was more a sigh of relief from customers.


I don't read it quite as dramatically as that, to be honest. I have no intention of either starting, or participating in the type of discussion that locked the Boeing orders thread, but..

By my reading, the 737-10 ended up with 242 firm orders, 199 of which were conversions, plus 90- odd MOU's/LOI's/commitments.

Boeing can take 43 of those orders to the bank.
The 199 conversions were already taken to the bank some time age - they will not alter the MAX bottom line order number.
What they do show is that at least 199 existing orders would already have been MAX-10's if it had existed, and would likely have appeared in the order book years ago.

The 90- odd LOI's/MOU's/"commitments"?
Well they also demonstrate the appeal of the MAX-10 - they shouldn't be ignored.
The issue here is no-one knows how long it will take to convert these into orders.
Most should get converted by the end of this calendar year if history is anything to go by.

But what that essentially does is "sell forward" most of this year's sales i.e. we've already counted these when they finally arrive in the O+D spreadsheet.
In the meantime, the competitor aircraft (in this case the A321 NEO) will continue to gain orders in the same period.
So a "like-for-like" comparison isn't really possibly until all of these "commitments" appear in the order book.

I point all this out to show that, whilst the 737-10 had a great launch, and I think it is the right product in the MAX range, when you get under the skin, not an awful lot has actually changed (in my opinion). At least the 737-10 is a competitive airframe - that has changed.
But "competitive" is all it is.
IMO the A321NEO is still a more complete all-round product.
Similar economics, fractionally higher capacity, better field performance, and greater range.
The 737-10 hasn't either "taken the initiative away from Airbus", nor "forces Airbus to respond"

Stand aside any partisan rhetoric about number crunching, those are realities I think most moderate posters will recognise.

Rgds


First of all, bless you.

Second, I would say that any Boeing "victory" at PAS17 was more an emotional one than a financial one. They've been beat up for so long in the NEO v MAX competition (in the market and on A.net) that it's like a breath of fresh air for people to admit that Boeing has a plane that airlines are clamoring for. Certainly "clamoring" is relative, and almost over-stated when contrasted with the A321neo success story, but still it was positive affirmation for a program and builder that needed the boost.

To make it more than what it is, or to attempt to beat it back down into submission - well, hopefully as you say we can avoid locking another thread.


I did my best to slide that one down the cigarette paper thin gap between two sets of partisan fans..... :)

I felt I was replying to a view that Airbus needed to "respond" to the 737-10.
In doing so, I think I went some way to answering my question on the MOM thread.

I don't think Airbus need to do anything at all just now, nor is there much upside in doing so.
I suspect the next-gen powerplants won't be available before 2025 anyway, even P+W's supposed 5%-7% improvement is slated for that timeframe.tAs far as the NEO went, there was never any question that a huge market awaited the next mainline narrowbody with next-gen engines.
I suspect A might want to wait a bit more to see how the marketing around the MOM segment evolves, before committing big resources to it.

Newbiepilot wrote:
At that point, they might as well build an all new plane in my opinion. Larger wing, bigger fuselage, likely systems component resizing, new interior, stronger landing gear, more powerful engines, modern avionics, modernized flight controls... An all new plane may be better than an A320Dumbo (to steal a term from someone else). They can reuse as much as they can from the A320 and make a plane truly optimized for the mission kind of like the A300 to A330 transition.


For me, the A322 type plane with new CFRP wings feels a bit like the 777X programme vs an all-new Y3 - not small, but about half the effort of a new plane.
Bear in mind that at least 3 of the 8 points you describe are already there - new interiors, modern avionics, modernised flight controls.
Bigger fuselage = simple stretch, as opposed to all-new tooling.
Component re-sizing will almost certainly be less than creating a whole new set of components.
Won't necessarily need all-new engines either. I suspect Pratt could develop a gen 2 GTF from the 1100G - we may be talking about as little as the growth from the current 35 000lb to 40 000lb. Same with the Leap 1A.
New wing and landing gear then remain the big ticket items

If Boeing can make the 777X "another 777", then Airbus should be able to make an A322 just "another A320", I would have thought.

Rgds
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:12 pm

Is there any possibility of a MOM plane that can accept a full-sized LD3 (2 side by side), but smaller than the 787-8? It seems as though 7 abreast might be ideal for MOM in the 200-240 passenger range.
 
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Polot
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:16 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
Is there any possibility of a MOM plane that can accept a full-sized LD3 (2 side by side), but smaller than the 787-8? It seems as though 7 abreast might be ideal for MOM in the 200-240 passenger range.

Yes, it is called the A310/A300 ;).

I think Boeing wants a fuselage diameter smaller than those planes though (which are basically at the absolute minimum for accepting LD3s side by side).
 
350helmi
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Mon Jun 26, 2017 7:48 pm

BoeingVista wrote:

The A320 will also be stretched to take capacity to greater than the 737-8


In my view there is an advantage to having the smaller plane (A319 and 737-7 not withstanding since they are't realy selling these days), it protects the market from below with a competetive product and therefore I don't expect there to be changes to the A320 fuse, just new wings at some point. It also creates a bigger size difference between the A320 and A321 creating a clearer gap between them. I admit that last point can be seen as a positive or a negative depending on who you ask.

How I see the A320 family looking in the future

A320 - wing 1 (smaller)
A321 - wing 1
A322 - wing 2 (bigger wing, fuse same size as A321)
A323 - wing 2 + a reasonable simple stretch of A322

In this scenario the A321LR won't be a big seller, but so far it hasnt sold too well which I suspect is because you have to sacrifice too much cargo capacity and have too few seats installed to achieve the range. The A322 would cover that market to all intents and purposes, possibly with no ACT installed or one at the most.

350helmi
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:03 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
Is there any possibility of a MOM plane that can accept a full-sized LD3 (2 side by side), but smaller than the 787-8? It seems as though 7 abreast might be ideal for MOM in the 200-240 passenger range.


Rates on air cargo have been down for 5 years and have seen little recovery. I don't think airlines are clamoring for more cargo volume. I think they want to maximize efficiency for carrying passengers. Cargo containers can be optimized around an airframe. I really don't see a new plane trying to compete in the Middle of the Market territory emphasizing cargo container commonality at the expense of airframe OEW or fuel burn. I know not everyone agrees with me and there is one poster who frequently posts about the importance of LD-3s and LD3-45s, but I don't think that is enough to sacrifice empty weight or fuel burn. Cargo containers are cheap compared to the fuel burn increase from a potentially bigger airframe with higher cargo volume.
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Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos