mjoelnir
Posts: 8499
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Wed Jan 24, 2018 12:23 pm

A MOM as most often described does need a new engine.

A321neo plus plus or A322 would not necessarily need a new engine. A322 with a slight stretch, increased MTOW, could use the same sized engine as the current A321neo (35,000 lbf) and compensate with a bigger wing.

So Airbus could have a way to come fast to the market with an answer, the moment Boeing has declared the initial specifications for the MOM design.
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 8712
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:13 pm

And the nasty thing is that the older engine with less thrust might still burn less fuel than the new engine with more thrust. Even when not considering PiPs.
 
User avatar
SomebodyInTLS
Posts: 1728
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 12:31 pm

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:28 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
@RJMAZ AFAIK the A319 and A320 nearly have a identical wing, the A321 has a wing with a longer chord.


Only through leading/trailing edge parts AFAIK. The wingbox is the same shape (although stressed slightly differently).
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
User avatar
SomebodyInTLS
Posts: 1728
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 12:31 pm

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:29 pm

Grizzly410 wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
Airbus will be second mover yet also be first to market. A very unique situation due to its existing aircraft only requiring modifications vs a complex cleansheet.


While I tend to agree on the unique situation, time to market mainly depends on engine technology. Assuming A322 and 797 get similar engine technology, both aircraft won't be far behind each other.


So true!
Maybe that's just a bit better for the second mover as it have a reference to position its product and deliver slightly better where the market is more lucrative ?


Bingo!

(Hence Boeing's endless wriggling and Airbus watching from the sidelines...)
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 21368
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Fri Mar 02, 2018 5:34 pm

In https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... t-imminent the "godfather of aviation leasing" Steven Udvar-Hazy is quoted as saying:

Similarly, ALC feels that a possible further stretch by Airbus of its A321neo-based A321LR to put market pressure on Boeing’s proposed NMA program is unlikely to happen soon.

“Boeing already tried that with the 757-300 and even though on paper it was the lowest seat-mile-cost airplane, it didn’t sell very well,” noted Udvar-Házy. “There are opportunities for Airbus to make some relatively small changes to the A321neo [but] our belief is that, with the current management changes and issues Airbus is facing, I don’t think it’s their number one priority right now.

“Also, it’s in their interest to see what Boeing does and doesn’t do before they make any product decision along those lines,” said Udvar-Házy. “On their list of priorities, if you take 10 of the highest, I don’t believe that what we call the Super A321 is right now at the top of the list.

It seems pretty pessimistic, but I guess we got to take in to consideration he doesn't want the value of the A32x he already owns to take a hit.

He also says in that article that Boeing won't launch NMA in the next couple of months i.e. not at Farnborough in July as some speculate.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 8499
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:00 pm

If the MOM comes and Airbus wants to do a small wide body, I am sure they will take a deep look at the A300/310. I do not mean an A300neo. But seriously the A330 was build on the A300. The fuselage of the A300 was taken, stretched, a bigger wing box added, new massive wings and last not least the FBW added. Bigger MLG and space for a center MLG in the new wing box.
I think even that the A300/310 production line did not disappear, it just morphed into the A330/340 production, same fuselage diameter.
So if Airbus wants to do a A330-100 (call it a 360 perhaps), IMO they would start with the A300 fuselage. The A300 is 28% lighter than the A330 to begin with, the A300-600R ended with an OEW of 88.6 t, MZFW of 130 t, an MTOW of 170 t and a range of 4050 nm. Max pax 345 and normal 2 class 247, smack right in the upper MOM area

Taking the fuselage of the A300-600R (or 310-200 or both), a new wing box (a new design is ready, could be scaled up for A300 project and used for super plus A321), a new wing (combine it with a wing for a super plus A321), looking if the old MLG is still OK, or buy a new one and use the cockpit and FBW out of the A330. Run it on the A330 production line.
It would be a far less ambitious project than the MOM. One should not forget, that developing the A300 into the A330/340-300 did cost only 3.5 billion USD (2001 prices). (Another point that people always forget when dissing the A340, 250 frames brought program break even).
 
Egerton
Posts: 864
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:50 am

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Tue Mar 06, 2018 7:22 pm

I am wondering if Airbus might be considering a "three aeroplane" strategy when weighing its respond to the MoM/797. Just the threat of this would cause Boeing to consider its stance with its current vaporware MoM non-starter.

Airbus is likely to do a new larger wing, that is widely agreed. Could this be of 2 sizes to cover an A322 and a new twin aisle 7 across 5,000nm A-MoM?

I recall that when the 757 and 767 were designed at the same time but with the wings in two sizes, ditto the fuselage, but a lot of commonality in the design concepts and certification effort. With some efficiency penalty A could do the same basic thing. 2 for the price of 1.5 on the 2 new wings, and 1 new fuselage. Then a shrink of the smaller of the two wings, to accommodate the A320 model which is the third wing.

May I suggest that with the light weight of any new wings as compared with aluminium, the efficiency penalty might be small. Alternatively, if there were to be designed a set of 3 different wings with optimal scale, aerodynamics and structures for each, the necessary greater design and certification costs and delay might be worth taking. I suspect the latter is the way to go.

Perhaps we seem to be thinking on too small a canvas. This is a common issue when a blue sky concept is not considered at all, or is easily ruled out, for lack of sufficient bandwidth.
 
User avatar
seabosdca
Posts: 6508
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:33 am

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:08 am

Given the possibility of a rewinged A322, I don't see the incentive for Airbus to develop a new fuselage. A 322 on the longer end, or even a 323, could cover most of the capacity ground.

Boeing is looking at new fuselage concepts out of necessity. It would be hard to scale up the 737 MAX to the right payload/range spot, and a 757-300 MAX would be too heavy and maintenance-intensive to be competitive.
 
User avatar
kmz
Posts: 173
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2008 9:55 am

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:21 am

I agree that stretching the A321 is not going to be too successful. After Airbus has tried impressing with the A350Mark 1, and failed , I would also strongly consider a new a/c type.
As an armchair CEO I would first decide for an engine technology and then design a new a/c family covering A321ish to MoMish. Let the CSeries do the A19ish to A320ish

Give those engineers something exciting to work for and not some warmed up stuff...

Hence, I do hope that Boeing will go forward with the B797 as it will make our lives less boring on Anet.
 
User avatar
kmz
Posts: 173
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2008 9:55 am

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:24 am

seabosdca wrote:
Given the possibility of a rewinged A322, I don't see the incentive for Airbus to develop a new fuselage. A 322 on the longer end, or even a 323, could cover most of the capacity ground.

Boeing is looking at new fuselage concepts out of necessity. It would be hard to scale up the 737 MAX to the right payload/range spot, and a 757-300 MAX would be too heavy and maintenance-intensive to be competitive.


I think the A320 fuselage is just too narrow too for efficient boarding of a A322 or A323. A wider aisle is necessary. If boarding takes longer than the flight you have a problem ,-)
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 3129
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:30 am

Some think the 797 will be a small niche, in which case a 322 and 330neo will be sufficient for Airbus to compete. Others think it could be a large niche which will call for a different response. If it comes to fruition I suspect the later.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13179
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:34 am

Airbus might design a medium range A330 replacement in time. I think a A321 based subfamily making us of the families economies of scale, commonality and populairity has a higher likelyhood than an entirely new fuselage at this time.

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
c933103
Posts: 3822
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:41 am

Can they do something like MC21X to bump the range of such stretch tp 4000+nm?
When no other countries around the world is going to militarily stop China and its subordinate fom abusing its citizens within its national boundary, it is unreasonable to expect those abuse can be countered with purely peaceful means.
 
User avatar
Erebus
Posts: 1044
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 2:40 am

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Wed Mar 07, 2018 1:02 am

I don't think Airbus should be chasing down this market with a separate model of their own. Any resources not thrown into making a matching competitor to Boeing's NMA is extra capital available for a comprehensive single aisle replacement programme. Minor extensions of their existing lineup through enhancements and engine upgrades can win a decent segment of this market.

Mid-next decade is still good time for engine makers to come up with PIPs and upgrades to improve on current performance and perhaps some of the technologies developed for the NMA engines can find their way back to current ones.
 
User avatar
KarelXWB
Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 26968
Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2012 6:13 pm

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Wed Mar 07, 2018 1:05 pm

Revelation wrote:
In https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... t-imminent the "godfather of aviation leasing" Steven Udvar-Hazy is quoted as saying:

Similarly, ALC feels that a possible further stretch by Airbus of its A321neo-based A321LR to put market pressure on Boeing’s proposed NMA program is unlikely to happen soon.

“Boeing already tried that with the 757-300 and even though on paper it was the lowest seat-mile-cost airplane, it didn’t sell very well,” noted Udvar-Házy. “There are opportunities for Airbus to make some relatively small changes to the A321neo [but] our belief is that, with the current management changes and issues Airbus is facing, I don’t think it’s their number one priority right now.

“Also, it’s in their interest to see what Boeing does and doesn’t do before they make any product decision along those lines,” said Udvar-Házy. “On their list of priorities, if you take 10 of the highest, I don’t believe that what we call the Super A321 is right now at the top of the list.

It seems pretty pessimistic, but I guess we got to take in to consideration he doesn't want the value of the A32x he already owns to take a hit.

He also says in that article that Boeing won't launch NMA in the next couple of months i.e. not at Farnborough in July as some speculate.


Of course it won't "happen soon". Taking into account that NMA might enter service around 2027, Airbus has some 9 years to respond. We also know the duopoly waits as long as possible to launch new aircraft designs, thus we should not expect any A321 stretch/upgrade anytime soon. Still, the studies have been done.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
User avatar
Richard28
Posts: 2746
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 5:42 am

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Wed Mar 07, 2018 3:53 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
Of course it won't "happen soon". Taking into account that NMA might enter service around 2027, Airbus has some 9 years to respond. We also know the duopoly waits as long as possible to launch new aircraft designs, thus we should not expect any A321 stretch/upgrade anytime soon. Still, the studies have been done.


Although waiting too long means that airbus potentially lose some big blue chip launch customers to the 797 and are on the back foot before they've even committed to the project.
 
Amiga500
Posts: 2319
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:22 am

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Wed Mar 07, 2018 3:53 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
CFRPwingALbody wrote:
@RJMAZ AFAIK the A319 and A320 nearly have a identical wing, the A321 has a wing with a longer chord.


Only through leading/trailing edge parts AFAIK. The wingbox is the same shape (although stressed slightly differently).


Correct.

Same torque box dimensions, internals are slightly different (both structurally and with regards fuel system).
 
Amiga500
Posts: 2319
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:22 am

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Wed Mar 07, 2018 3:59 pm

I wonder would Airbus decide to do an A330-700 or A330-600 with the same engines as a 797?

- new wing
- new undercarriage
- new empennage
- same engines as any MoM

Wonder what the program cost would be relative to a 797 and what the relative performance would be.

Could Airbus do both an A322 and a A330-700 for the same price as Boeing does the 797? 797 is better at its design point (inc. program cost), but its niche is squeezed into an extremely small payload/range zone.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13179
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu Apr 19, 2018 7:34 am

Amiga500 wrote:
I wonder would Airbus decide to do an A330-700 or A330-600 with the same engines as a 797?

- new wing
- new undercarriage
- new empennage
- same engines as any MoM

Wonder what the program cost would be relative to a 797 and what the relative performance would be.

Could Airbus do both an A322 and a A330-700 for the same price as Boeing does the 797? 797 is better at its design point (inc. program cost), but its niche is squeezed into an extremely small payload/range zone.


You might assume they could, but Airbus has been very quiet lately & now seems to have an information stop on a A321 Plus Plus too. Towards launch of a probable 797 the stakes are high and every communications will be scrutinized, probably even slightly misleading.

Image

:arrow: Maybe Airbus is waiting for Boeing to fully commit to a bigger NMA (incl launching customers) and then attack it from below with cheaper, mass producced A321 stretches / re-winged versions..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
bigjku
Posts: 1906
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2007 10:51 pm

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:32 pm

keesje wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
I wonder would Airbus decide to do an A330-700 or A330-600 with the same engines as a 797?

- new wing
- new undercarriage
- new empennage
- same engines as any MoM

Wonder what the program cost would be relative to a 797 and what the relative performance would be.

Could Airbus do both an A322 and a A330-700 for the same price as Boeing does the 797? 797 is better at its design point (inc. program cost), but its niche is squeezed into an extremely small payload/range zone.


You might assume they could, but Airbus has been very quiet lately & now seems to have an information stop on a A321 Plus Plus too. Towards launch of a probable 797 the stakes are high and every communications will be scrutinized, probably even slightly misleading.

Image

:arrow: Maybe Airbus is waiting for Boeing to fully commit to a bigger NMA (incl launching customers) and then attack it from below with cheaper, mass producced A321 stretches / re-winged versions..


I honestly think Airbus is a bit surprised by what happened with the A330neo and is reevaluating it’s plans in light of that. Regardless of what people here and marketing executive say about replacement cycles the reception has to have been massively disappointing thus far. I don’t see them looking to do anything more with that platform as I dont believe they can get their cost low enough.

If Boeing is confident of what they are doing on the NMA and it is largely applying lessons from the 787 and 777x to that space I have to imagine the pricing will be very aggressive. I also suspect that pricing proposals are now beinging to circulate among airlines with a launch being around Farnborough. At 60-70% the weight of a 787 and 787’s now being priced around the $100 million mark in recent deals I don’t think a sales price in the $65-$75 million price range is out of the question in the end which is the target they need to hit. What does one sell an A321neo for these days? List is $130 million, the usual half off would say $65 million. What are you going to price the A322neo plus at?

It seems as if that price gap is narrowing. I certainly don’t expect Airbus to put anymore money into the A330neo at this point. I think the engineering moves around the A320neo are about finding any and all ways to produce it more cheaply. Fundamentally it makes sense. Any improvements on the current base are only going to increase cost. If you find out that you don’t have the space costwise to play with step 1 is to drive down your current cost then see what you can add to it.

I could be wrong. Fully admit that. But there will be a lot of interesting data points about to come out. If the plane launches as I expect we should get some idea of pricing. Later this month we will see how much deferred cost the 787 chewed through which gives good insight into declining cost basis there. More importantly this and the next quarter will be the first without new derivatives muddying up the waters so I consider the next 2-6 quarters as they head to rate 14 to be the most critical for seeing what the actual bottom line production cost for a 787 will be.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13179
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:54 pm

I think Airbus is not discounting the A321 with 50%. Demand is high and serious competition years out. Typically market forces driving healthy margins.

On the A330, it seems there are about 1300 in operation, that gradually need to be replaced in the next 10-15 yrs. Boeing might be hoping they are destroying the A330 (again, 763, 772, 787), I think over the last 20 years we have learned to wait and see. I don't see those 100 A330 operators massively ordering 787s and/or 797s, yet (?). No doubt Airbus will add a few customers at Farnborough.

http://www.airbus.com/content/dam/corporate-topics/publications/backgrounders/Backgrounder-Airbus-Commercial-Aircraft-A330neo-Customers-list-EN.pdf
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
NZ321
Posts: 1078
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:00 pm

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu Apr 19, 2018 3:11 pm

bigjku wrote:
astuteman wrote:
StTim wrote:

Careful - you will be called an airbus fanboy soon...


Talking of which, you notice the A350-1000 is in the failure list too - not yet entered service.
But the 777X is conspicuous by it's absence, but on the basis that it has only achieved about 300 sales, presumably it too will be going on the reject pile.
Boeing might as well give up now, given the criteria being used - but it's not on the list.
We talk a lot at work about "unconscious bias"....

I'll leave it there ...

Rgds


First I don’t think anyone is a fanboy...

To be fair I specifically said if the 77X doesn’t sell well it goes on the bad list for me as well. It’s right there in my post. No passes to Boeing on that. I picked planes that are flying and was posting from a phone. I also left off the A310 as I didnt think that would be fair given where Airbus was as a company then.

I don’t think one can deny that is worrying when sales are that low at the time of first flight EIS. The 787 had 67% of its orders prior to EIS and is still going. The 77W was more like 1/3rd just eyeballing it. The A380 was around 40%.

I think a reasonable assumption based on the last three widebody programs to pass through EIS is it will maybe double it’s orders post EIS over the next 5-10 years. So we have 5 years or production now at 66 aircraft per year. If we sell another 200 that buys us a 3 more years of production. To maintain that production rate over 10 years we need to have a 77W like post EIS sales run. But that was a unique circumstance where the A340 just flat lost and the 777 took almost all of that market.

Again I am not critical of the A330. I like the plane. But I think if we are all honest it’s clear Airbus didn’t expect to not be ramping up production to 9-10 per month when this was launched rather than holding at 6. Hell the initial projection was it would start at 7-8 so production rate is lower by anywhere from 15-40% than what was anticipated at program launch. That does impact profit margins substantially so we can assume they likely aren’t going to make as much as they thought when they figured rates would be higher. Seriously ask yourself how many more you think they will reasonably sell over the next 5 years.

I think in general my view on widebody market projections would be this. Airbus has made the most mistakes and Boeing made the single dumbest market read with the 748 which was an utter waste of time and effort even if it’s pretty. It was the “hold my beer” drunken response to the A380. Everyone makes mistakes. It does happen. The 77X will be just as big of a disappointment if it’s sales don’t pickup over the next 12-18 months IMHO.

I just think given the way things go now that pre-EIS sales are an important thing to look at. The winners (A359, A320Neo, 737max, 787) are pretty clear. The other programs for the most part aren’t company killers. But if I would bet lunch that a330 isn’t doing what Airbus expected. They are telling us as much by holding rates at 6 at the moment. Maybe it gains traction but recent history sees a very large percentage of sales happening pre-EIS compared to when the 767 and A330ceo were first launched.


I think your thinking is simplistic. Airbus have developed many of their aircraft as variants on a theme (you list different versions of the A340 and A330 as completely distinct models). How many variants of the 767 fuselage did Boeing develop? How many did Airbus develop of the A300? Boeing has not followed this path of development. Airbus did the common cockpit thing very early on. The influence of these commonalities and resulting development costs are not part of your analysis / consideration. We are comparing oranges with apples. We need to dig deeper to have a valid comparison IMHO.
Plane mad!
 
bigjku
Posts: 1906
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2007 10:51 pm

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu Apr 19, 2018 3:23 pm

NZ321 wrote:
bigjku wrote:
astuteman wrote:

Talking of which, you notice the A350-1000 is in the failure list too - not yet entered service.
But the 777X is conspicuous by it's absence, but on the basis that it has only achieved about 300 sales, presumably it too will be going on the reject pile.
Boeing might as well give up now, given the criteria being used - but it's not on the list.
We talk a lot at work about "unconscious bias"....

I'll leave it there ...

Rgds


First I don’t think anyone is a fanboy...

To be fair I specifically said if the 77X doesn’t sell well it goes on the bad list for me as well. It’s right there in my post. No passes to Boeing on that. I picked planes that are flying and was posting from a phone. I also left off the A310 as I didnt think that would be fair given where Airbus was as a company then.

I don’t think one can deny that is worrying when sales are that low at the time of first flight EIS. The 787 had 67% of its orders prior to EIS and is still going. The 77W was more like 1/3rd just eyeballing it. The A380 was around 40%.

I think a reasonable assumption based on the last three widebody programs to pass through EIS is it will maybe double it’s orders post EIS over the next 5-10 years. So we have 5 years or production now at 66 aircraft per year. If we sell another 200 that buys us a 3 more years of production. To maintain that production rate over 10 years we need to have a 77W like post EIS sales run. But that was a unique circumstance where the A340 just flat lost and the 777 took almost all of that market.

Again I am not critical of the A330. I like the plane. But I think if we are all honest it’s clear Airbus didn’t expect to not be ramping up production to 9-10 per month when this was launched rather than holding at 6. Hell the initial projection was it would start at 7-8 so production rate is lower by anywhere from 15-40% than what was anticipated at program launch. That does impact profit margins substantially so we can assume they likely aren’t going to make as much as they thought when they figured rates would be higher. Seriously ask yourself how many more you think they will reasonably sell over the next 5 years.

I think in general my view on widebody market projections would be this. Airbus has made the most mistakes and Boeing made the single dumbest market read with the 748 which was an utter waste of time and effort even if it’s pretty. It was the “hold my beer” drunken response to the A380. Everyone makes mistakes. It does happen. The 77X will be just as big of a disappointment if it’s sales don’t pickup over the next 12-18 months IMHO.

I just think given the way things go now that pre-EIS sales are an important thing to look at. The winners (A359, A320Neo, 737max, 787) are pretty clear. The other programs for the most part aren’t company killers. But if I would bet lunch that a330 isn’t doing what Airbus expected. They are telling us as much by holding rates at 6 at the moment. Maybe it gains traction but recent history sees a very large percentage of sales happening pre-EIS compared to when the 767 and A330ceo were first launched.


I think your thinking is simplistic. Airbus have developed many of their aircraft as variants on a theme (you list different versions of the A340 and A330 as completely distinct models). How many variants of the 767 fuselage did Boeing develop? How many did Airbus develop of the A300? Boeing has not followed this path of development. Airbus did the common cockpit thing very early on. The influence of these commonalities and resulting development costs are not part of your analysis / consideration. We are comparing oranges with apples. We need to dig deeper to have a valid comparison IMHO.


Well the fundamental question way back when that post was made was is the A330neo on the right track. I contend no due to low sales numbers. I think good evidence is that it was pitched by Leahy at a 10 per month production rate and now is going to be six “awaiting sales developments”. I contend that is has likely well underperformed Airbus expectations so far.

I am open to a more complex analysis if you want to do it. But all the commonality you talk about, while it does save cost, doesn’t make the A330neo program itself successful. And if the A330neo ends up conceding 70% or more of the smaller sized widebody market to Boeing it really doesn’t matter how little it cost to develop because you are going to have to turn around and do something new anyway.
 
WIederling
Posts: 8888
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:28 pm

bigjku wrote:
More importantly this and the next quarter will be the first without new derivatives muddying up the waters so I consider the next 2-6 quarters as they head to rate 14 to be the most critical for seeing what the actual bottom line production cost for a 787 will be.


IMU todays (alleged low) pricing will only turn visible when those planes are delivered, right?
Murphy is an optimist
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 21368
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:29 pm

bigjku wrote:
I think the engineering moves around the A320neo are about finding any and all ways to produce it more cheaply. Fundamentally it makes sense. Any improvements on the current base are only going to increase cost. If you find out that you don’t have the space costwise to play with step 1 is to drive down your current cost then see what you can add to it.

I agree with your post, but it seems the best place to follow up on this one aspect is Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study so I will do so.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
bigjku
Posts: 1906
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2007 10:51 pm

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:38 pm

WIederling wrote:
bigjku wrote:
More importantly this and the next quarter will be the first without new derivatives muddying up the waters so I consider the next 2-6 quarters as they head to rate 14 to be the most critical for seeing what the actual bottom line production cost for a 787 will be.


IMU todays (alleged low) pricing will only turn visible when those planes are delivered, right?


Yes. What we can learn, or guess at, is if production cost continue to fall at the present time. The accounting entry basically works as follows.

Sold Price less cost to produce (material and labor) less programmed profit equals the reduction to the deferred balance for each plane. So if the rate of deferred cost reduction rises either the sold prices were higher or cost to produce was lower.

Knowing the sold prices each quarter is tough given the mix. Prices change for different airlines and at different times and deliveries don’t always line up with first orders coming first ect. Overall I think that is something that levels out over a quarter or several quarters. So if we see a growing rate of deferred cost reduction that is sustained quarter to quarter it would reflect a lower production cost most likely.

It isn’t perfect and the exact numbers will never get out just like sales prices never do. But it’s useful for trend analysis.

If Boeing really did lower their prices the calculus on this certainly changes when the 2017-18 orders start being delivered and you would expect to see that rate of reduction fall. Boeing needs it to continue to accelerate, as it has been, over the next few quarters.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 1476
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:27 pm

bigjku wrote:
Well the fundamental question way back when that post was made was is the A330neo on the right track. I contend no due to low sales numbers. I think good evidence is that it was pitched by Leahy at a 10 per month production rate and now is going to be six “awaiting sales developments”. I contend that is has likely well underperformed Airbus expectations so far.


Right now for Airbus the NB's are going gangbusters with an incredible 8 year backlog at full bore production. But the WB's are not sizzling:
330 - 6 per month; 350 - 2017 rate 7 per month, somewhere around 8 per month this year. Will they get to the projected 14 / month they announced in 2017.
380 - 6 per month coming soon. 5 years ago the expected rates were 35 to 40 per month combined, not 20 per month. This hurts as the fixed costs of production can be spread to fewer deliveries.

To be fair, Boeing WB's except for the 787 are not setting things on fire - 2 lines at minimum production, the 777 line running slow waiting for the 777X.
 
texl1649
Posts: 1056
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2007 5:38 am

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu Apr 19, 2018 6:06 pm

An A32x re-wing might make sense in an abstract sense, but the question is to what end? They have a backlog between 797 launch and EIS of around 6,000 frames to deliver, and it's a 30 year old frame at this point, with no model length adjustment ever having been made (I would assume for good reasons).

If Airbus does want to respond, and build it's own commonality (and differentiation vs. Boeing), a new frame will be needed as the 330 is clearly receding in the product life cycle. It almost has the C-series as a baseline, to the A-cheerleaders immense joy.

It's stated that the A320 isn't going to be touched (via A320 plus cancellation), and it has a great success in that product line (assuming they can start hitting delivery targets). Something between A350 and A320 could be done for the same cost, and perhaps build toward commonality with the C-series long-term. But that would be a real challenge, I admit, and take some long term planning/vision.

The engines remain a fascinating dilemma, and impossible to understand from a non-insider perspective. That to me is the key, and why we just don't know. Airbus partnered heavily with Pratt and Rolls, neither of which seem likely to commit, if deselected by Boeing, to going forward on any new Airbus response. But exclusivity and market share talk, and Airbus has a substantial hand to play in that regard.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 21368
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu Apr 19, 2018 6:12 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
380 - 6 per month coming soon. 5 years ago the expected rates were 35 to 40 per month combined, not 20 per month. This hurts as the fixed costs of production can be spread to fewer deliveries.

Per year, not month...
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
astuteman
Posts: 6891
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu Apr 19, 2018 6:44 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
bigjku wrote:
Well the fundamental question way back when that post was made was is the A330neo on the right track. I contend no due to low sales numbers. I think good evidence is that it was pitched by Leahy at a 10 per month production rate and now is going to be six “awaiting sales developments”. I contend that is has likely well underperformed Airbus expectations so far.


Right now for Airbus the NB's are going gangbusters with an incredible 8 year backlog at full bore production. But the WB's are not sizzling:
330 - 6 per month; 350 - 2017 rate 7 per month, somewhere around 8 per month this year. Will they get to the projected 14 / month they announced in 2017.
380 - 6 per month coming soon. 5 years ago the expected rates were 35 to 40 per month combined, not 20 per month. This hurts as the fixed costs of production can be spread to fewer deliveries.

To be fair, Boeing WB's except for the 787 are not setting things on fire - 2 lines at minimum production, the 777 line running slow waiting for the 777X.


I don't see any reason to suspect that the A350 won't ramp up significantly beyond where it is today. The backlog is there (some 700 frames) and in the same way the 787 is supposed to have done, the A350 will go down the learning curve and, combined with rate growth, will become steadily lower cost to produce.

The A380 is, well, the A380

The A330 is where the magnifying glass sits. With a backlog of 300 frames, there should be little risk to 6 per month for now.

We might expect deliveries of up to 70 x A330, 100 x A350 and 10 x A380 in 2018, which is 180 widebodys delivered.
in 2019 that might well go up to 70 x A330, 120 x A350 and 10 x A380, which is 200 widebodys delivered.
in 2020 that might look like 70 x A330, 140 x A350 and 10 x A380, which is 220 widebodys

These are not trivial numbers, and the only reason they're not "sizzling" is that the 787 is several years further ahead in ramp up
2018 might see some 70 x 777, 140-150 x 787, 10 x 767 and 10 x 747, which is 230-240 widebodys
2019 might see 70 x 777, 150-160 x 787, 10 x 767 and 10 x 747, which is 240-250 widebodys
in 2020 that might look like 70 x 777, 160 x 787, 10 x 767 and 10 x 747 which is 250 widebodys.

The specific numbers are open to challenge - it's more the pattern that I'm seeing. In terms of widebody deliveries by value, in the next couple of years I think the gap will be pretty small once the A350 really hits its stride.

I don't think Airbus need to panic just yet :)

Rgds
 
Planeflyer
Posts: 1428
Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2014 3:49 am

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu Apr 19, 2018 7:20 pm

The back log is great but as an investor in AB, the risk is gross profit and cash generation.

Specifically can they generate +18 margins on the 350? If they can this will be a home run in program.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 1476
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:15 pm

astuteman wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
bigjku wrote:
Well the fundamental question way back when that post was made was is the A330neo on the right track. I contend no due to low sales numbers. I think good evidence is that it was pitched by Leahy at a 10 per month production rate and now is going to be six “awaiting sales developments”. I contend that is has likely well underperformed Airbus expectations so far.


Right now for Airbus the NB's are going gangbusters with an incredible 8 year backlog at full bore production. But the WB's are not sizzling:
330 - 6 per month; 350 - 2017 rate 7 per month, somewhere around 8 per month this year. Will they get to the projected 14 / month they announced in 2017.
380 - 6 per month coming soon. 5 years ago the expected rates were 35 to 40 per month combined, not 20 per month. This hurts as the fixed costs of production can be spread to fewer deliveries.

To be fair, Boeing WB's except for the 787 are not setting things on fire - 2 lines at minimum production, the 777 line running slow waiting for the 777X.


I don't see any reason to suspect that the A350 won't ramp up significantly beyond where it is today. The backlog is there (some 700 frames) and in the same way the 787 is supposed to have done, the A350 will go down the learning curve and, combined with rate growth, will become steadily lower cost to produce.

The A380 is, well, the A380

The A330 is where the magnifying glass sits. With a backlog of 300 frames, there should be little risk to 6 per month for now.

We might expect deliveries of up to 70 x A330, 100 x A350 and 10 x A380 in 2018, which is 180 widebodys delivered.
in 2019 that might well go up to 70 x A330, 120 x A350 and 10 x A380, which is 200 widebodys delivered.
in 2020 that might look like 70 x A330, 140 x A350 and 10 x A380, which is 220 widebodys

These are not trivial numbers, and the only reason they're not "sizzling" is that the 787 is several years further ahead in ramp up
2018 might see some 70 x 777, 140-150 x 787, 10 x 767 and 10 x 747, which is 230-240 widebodys
2019 might see 70 x 777, 150-160 x 787, 10 x 767 and 10 x 747, which is 240-250 widebodys
in 2020 that might look like 70 x 777, 160 x 787, 10 x 767 and 10 x 747 which is 250 widebodys.

The specific numbers are open to challenge - it's more the pattern that I'm seeing. In terms of widebody deliveries by value, in the next couple of years I think the gap will be pretty small once the A350 really hits its stride.

I don't think Airbus need to panic just yet :)

Rgds


Nor do I think Airbus needs to panic. But the deliveries of the A330 was over 100 for 2012 to 2015, dropping to the 70 level since. Those peak years was during the 787 and 350 starting production. Yes the 350 will build up to the 140 per year point in a couple years, as the 787 has just recently done.

Both the 787 and 350 are doing great in the market and will probably for a very long time. It seems all of the older models have not done as well as the manufactures hoped.

----
Revelation - good catch.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13179
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:36 pm

"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1623
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Fri Apr 20, 2018 1:54 am

astuteman wrote:
I don't see any reason to suspect that the A350 won't ramp up significantly beyond where it is today. The backlog is there (some 700 frames) and in the same way the 787 is supposed to have done, the A350 will go down the learning curve and, combined with rate growth, will become steadily lower cost to produce.

You assume Airbus will be able to get the same cost reduction as Boeing?

That's a big assumption. Everyone doubted Boeings ability to get costs down. Most didn't think it was possible for well founded reasons.

Since Boeing managed to pull it off it suddenly means it must have been easy. So it should be easy for Airbus? Doubt it.
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1623
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Fri Apr 20, 2018 2:27 am

Ramping up production of the A320 is an obvious solution. Airbus could capture 60% of the narrowbody market within 10 years.

The A350 ramp up will be a problem. To sustain high production levels in the long term it will need additional orders in the medium term. This means Airbus will have to market the A350 heavily in the short term which leaves the A330NEO high and dry.

I've said a few times that I don't expect more than 200 A330NEO's produced. Future customers will choose between the 787 or A350 depending on their capacity requirement.

The A350 has the best long term potential and it should capture most of the 777 replacement market.
 
bigjku
Posts: 1906
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2007 10:51 pm

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Fri Apr 20, 2018 2:36 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Ramping up production of the A320 is an obvious solution. Airbus could capture 60% of the narrowbody market within 10 years.

The A350 ramp up will be a problem. To sustain high production levels in the long term it will need additional orders in the medium term. This means Airbus will have to market the A350 heavily in the short term which leaves the A330NEO high and dry.

I've said a few times that I don't expect more than 200 A330NEO's produced. Future customers will choose between the 787 or A350 depending on their capacity requirement.

The A350 has the best long term potential and it should capture most of the 777 replacement market.


Really the big question for the A350 will be what reasons many airlines had for flying whatever 777’s they are replacing.

The ones who want the most capacity and capability you can get like EK will and have gone for the 77X.

Those who believed the range and payload were about perfect and don’t necessrily want more will go for the A350.

The real question to me is how many flew it simply because it was the most efficient long ranged aircraft at that time before the A330 grew into it a bit more and the 787 came along and the 777 was maybe a bit bigger than they would like. I do wonder if a substantial portion of the 777 market could downgauge given be range now available in smaller aircraft.
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1623
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Fri Apr 20, 2018 4:16 am

bigjku wrote:
[The real question to me is how many flew it simply because it was the most efficient long ranged aircraft at that time before the A330 grew into it a bit more and the 787 came along and the 777 was maybe a bit bigger than they would like. I do wonder if a substantial portion of the 777 market could downgauge given be range now available in smaller aircraft.

I think the fuel burn per passenger will be more important than max capacity. I also think it's a myth that airlines look at replacing aircraft with new aircraft of identical capacity.

With equal fuel burn per passenger the trend is to go with the smaller aircraft that can do the route in nearly all cases. The larger aircraft must show a significant fuel burn advantage to justify the increased risk of higher capacity and potential lower yields.

The original 777 did show better fuel burn compared to the smaller A330 and 767's so it was worth upgauging to the 777. However the 747 and A380 did not show a significant fuel burn advantage over the original 777 so airlines picked the smaller aircraft and simply added frequency. That's why the 777 sold so well. It was getting customers from above and below.

The 787 is doing this right now. Remaining 767 and A330 buyers are upgauging to the 787 because the improved fuel burn justifies the capacity risk. Airlines with larger aircraft are also downguaging to 787's but adding frequency. As larger 777-300ER's, 747-8's and A380's don't offer enough fuel burn advantage to justify the capacity risk. It is getting customers from above and below.

The A350 should attract customers who most would think should be looking at the 777X, 747-8 and A380NEO size range. However the A350 will not be able to attract customers from the size below. It will not offer a fuel burn advantage over the 787 to justify the extra capacity risk.
 
User avatar
speedygonzales
Posts: 642
Joined: Thu Sep 13, 2007 5:01 pm

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Fri Apr 20, 2018 7:53 am

keesje wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
I wonder would Airbus decide to do an A330-700 or A330-600 with the same engines as a 797?

- new wing
- new undercarriage
- new empennage
- same engines as any MoM

Wonder what the program cost would be relative to a 797 and what the relative performance would be.

Could Airbus do both an A322 and a A330-700 for the same price as Boeing does the 797? 797 is better at its design point (inc. program cost), but its niche is squeezed into an extremely small payload/range zone.


You might assume they could, but Airbus has been very quiet lately & now seems to have an information stop on a A321 Plus Plus too. Towards launch of a probable 797 the stakes are high and every communications will be scrutinized, probably even slightly misleading.

Image

:arrow: Maybe Airbus is waiting for Boeing to fully commit to a bigger NMA (incl launching customers) and then attack it from below with cheaper, mass producced A321 stretches / re-winged versions..


You need to call your hypothetical widebody MOM something other than A330-700, because that designation is already taken by the Beluga XL.
Ignorance kills. :tombstone:
 
dare100em
Posts: 275
Joined: Tue Dec 23, 2014 9:31 am

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Fri Apr 20, 2018 8:32 am

bigjku wrote:
keesje wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
I wonder would Airbus decide to do an A330-700 or A330-600 with the same engines as a 797?

- new wing
- new undercarriage
- new empennage
- same engines as any MoM

Wonder what the program cost would be relative to a 797 and what the relative performance would be.

Could Airbus do both an A322 and a A330-700 for the same price as Boeing does the 797? 797 is better at its design point (inc. program cost), but its niche is squeezed into an extremely small payload/range zone.


You might assume they could, but Airbus has been very quiet lately & now seems to have an information stop on a A321 Plus Plus too. Towards launch of a probable 797 the stakes are high and every communications will be scrutinized, probably even slightly misleading.

Image

:arrow: Maybe Airbus is waiting for Boeing to fully commit to a bigger NMA (incl launching customers) and then attack it from below with cheaper, mass producced A321 stretches / re-winged versions..


I honestly think Airbus is a bit surprised by what happened with the A330neo and is reevaluating it’s plans in light of that. Regardless of what people here and marketing executive say about replacement cycles the reception has to have been massively disappointing thus far. I don’t see them looking to do anything more with that platform as I dont believe they can get their cost low enough.

If Boeing is confident of what they are doing on the NMA and it is largely applying lessons from the 787 and 777x to that space I have to imagine the pricing will be very aggressive. I also suspect that pricing proposals are now beinging to circulate among airlines with a launch being around Farnborough. At 60-70% the weight of a 787 and 787’s now being priced around the $100 million mark in recent deals I don’t think a sales price in the $65-$75 million price range is out of the question in the end which is the target they need to hit. What does one sell an A321neo for these days? List is $130 million, the usual half off would say $65 million. What are you going to price the A322neo plus at?

It seems as if that price gap is narrowing. I certainly don’t expect Airbus to put anymore money into the A330neo at this point. I think the engineering moves around the A320neo are about finding any and all ways to produce it more cheaply. Fundamentally it makes sense. Any improvements on the current base are only going to increase cost. If you find out that you don’t have the space costwise to play with step 1 is to drive down your current cost then see what you can add to it.

I could be wrong. Fully admit that. But there will be a lot of interesting data points about to come out. If the plane launches as I expect we should get some idea of pricing. Later this month we will see how much deferred cost the 787 chewed through which gives good insight into declining cost basis there. More importantly this and the next quarter will be the first without new derivatives muddying up the waters so I consider the next 2-6 quarters as they head to rate 14 to be the most critical for seeing what the actual bottom line production cost for a 787 will be.


:checkmark: They are very unsure ATM how to proceed given their recent expierience with "easy&cheap" warm-ups. While it obviously works for single aisles it doesn't for TWINs, especially 1-engine TWINS. They seem to get more carefull how to dispose the resources.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13179
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:32 am

I think the 1000 772ER's/A340's proved game changers on flights out of Booming Asia since ~1995. Now they are up for replacement and Asia is still growing 5-10% per year. Many of those airlines upgraded to 773ER's since 2004, the replacement cycle for the 7772ERs / A340s has started.

On flights from Asia the 787-9 has the range, but not the cargo payload the 777-200ER offers. The 787-10 has more capacity but not the range for flights out of Asia. The 777-8/-9 will become available in the next decade, but represent a jump in cost and capacity for airlines. While most of those operators have relatively young 777-300ER fleets anyway.

Replacing the 777-200ER, many airlines seem to prefer the A350-900, because of the lift it can provide and the option to order the -1000s later on for growth. Big 777 operators that are switching at least part of their 777 operations to A350s are United, Air France, Cathay Pacific, British Airways, Singapore Airlines, Japan Airlines, Air China, Qatar Airways, Etihad Airways, Thai Airways, KLM, China Southern, Delta Air Lines and Ethiopian Airlines.

Downscaling to 787-9, surrendering capacity and capability in the growing Asia markets is less likely. Slot restrictions & overfly rights are there. Hence the success of the 777-300ER.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13179
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Fri Apr 20, 2018 2:55 pm

speedygonzales wrote:
You need to call your hypothetical widebody MOM something other than A330-700, because that designation is already taken by the Beluga XL.


I was first (2012) :weeping: & I don't have the originals anymore.. I just found some shockingly old posts from me on A330 NG topics.. :covereyes:
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
parapente
Posts: 3061
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:42 pm

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Fri Apr 20, 2018 3:24 pm

Re thread started question.
Well we do now know (if we believe the leaks) what Airbus' response to a Boeing 797 MOM would/was to be.It is the 'plus' and the 'plus plus'.
Ok both are shelved for the moment until they have their production expansion issues for the 320 family sorted out.
Clearly a short term response is/was to be a small stretch (identical?) of both the A320 NEO and the A321NEO.One imagines this would logically be to 200 and 250 pax- one class,especially as the new door configurations allow for this increased number.
It is assumed this would use the same engines and wing - or at least very similar.
The larger size would easily be a 220 seat 2 class aircaft which is the same as the rumoured smaller version of the 797.Thus covering off the continental marketplace in this respect.It would be incredibly efficient.
The plus plus (new wing/engine?)is/was obviously positioned to cover off the intercontinental market at the lower size bracket.Neither aircaft were (it seems) positioned against the proposed larger 797 variety which it is suggested would carry 270 pax in 2 classes.whether continental or intercontinental.But that would make sense as it (320) is a narrowbodied a/c therefor unsuited for such a huge additional stretch.
However we hear it's all on the back burner for now so over to Boeing at Farnbrough -or not!
 
astuteman
Posts: 6891
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Sat Apr 21, 2018 6:25 am

RJMAZ wrote:
astuteman wrote:
I don't see any reason to suspect that the A350 won't ramp up significantly beyond where it is today. The backlog is there (some 700 frames) and in the same way the 787 is supposed to have done, the A350 will go down the learning curve and, combined with rate growth, will become steadily lower cost to produce.


Everyone doubted Boeings ability to get costs down. Most didn't think it was possible


Hyperbole much? Given the drug-like rush we've had over 787 cost reduction I'd refute the "everyone doubted" bit.
In fact I certainly didn't doubt it, hence you are by definition incorrect :)

But if I had seen this I would have said to "everyone"

Expecting costs not to drop as production volume ramps up is a fools errand
Expecting costs not to drop as the product moves down the learning curve and then from continuous improvement is also a fools errand.
"Everyone" that doesn't believe this will be making a fool of themselves on the forum

There is no logical reason why the A350 as it matures won't behave as the 787 has.
To believe otherwise is fanboyism. Nothing more.
 
WIederling
Posts: 8888
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Sat Apr 21, 2018 11:05 am

astuteman wrote:
To believe otherwise is fanboyism. Nothing more.


There is some good reason for having doubts about a horrayed step change in production cost
by way of reaching the original touted ease of assembly.

Well we have the regular learning curve. There are no step changes in those.
We have a curve entry at levels well above (twice?) the originally planned effort.
We saw ( at least reported as ) better learning than previous projects. ( imu easy picking
by fixing major production design errors. )
We see further advantage from high production numbers.
Still I expect production (cost decay curve ) effort to remain higher than originally planned.

But what appears to provide the perceived step change is a massive push on
suppliers for lower pricing. Leaning on suppliers that had the same excess outlay
in the initial phase of the project. ( I tend to send away customers that show
excessive greed or expect more value than they want to pay for.)
Murphy is an optimist
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13179
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Sat Apr 21, 2018 11:28 am

I think it is most likely Airbus will some form of a bigger A321 within a few years. I also expect a percentage of the 100 A330 operators to go for the A330NEO, but probably not in a typical NMA kind of role. The A330NEO is even more than the A330CEO optimized for long flight with serious cargo. That's why it weighs more than 120t. Which makes it a heavy weight for shorter flights.

So back to topic, also for Airbus there seems to remain a serious medium segment to address. Certainly when the (by then) 35-40 yr old A330 program is up for replacement.

To fill the segment under the A350-900 when fuel prices have "recovered" above $100 / barrel based on shrinking supply http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart, Airbus will probably look for a super-efficient medium platform. If it will be twin or single aisle is unclear.

Maybe cargo on medium flights is considered a waste of fuel by that time and something like a big hybrid twin-single aisle is lighter and has better doc for medium segment operations.

Image
.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
morrisond
Posts: 1364
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Sat Apr 21, 2018 11:40 am

Keesje - You are very talented - I would love to see you do the same type of Analysis and show the same graphics with a 7W NMA Concept - Double Circle - NSA XL type of Concept. You might have already done it though. With a 36" wider LD3-45 in the Belly.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 9043
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Sat Apr 21, 2018 12:42 pm

WIederling wrote:
But what appears to provide the perceived step change is a massive push on
suppliers for lower pricing. Leaning on suppliers that had the same excess outlay
in the initial phase of the project. ( I tend to send away customers that show
excessive greed or expect more value than they want to pay for.)

Hmm..we know an awful lot about Boeing spending Billions bringing outsourced production facilities back in house, indeed some of those cost are in the deferred billions that all an sundry know about, I guess I need to start paying more attention to the financial reports of the vendors who are still there from the inception of the 787 run to get a better understanding of how much they lost.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13179
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Sat Apr 21, 2018 1:41 pm

morrisond wrote:
... I would love to see you do the same type of Analysis and show the same graphics with a 7W NMA Concept - Double Circle - NSA XL type of Concept. You might have already done it though. With a 36" wider LD3-45 in the Belly.


I assume a wider AKH variant could be possible, about 36-40inch / 2.4 m cubical extra as you say. An NMA 7 abreast could still use the standard AKH / LD3-45 containers and pallets (interoperability), but also use the wider variant if suitable. Or a combination of standard and wider containers / pallets and even bulk loaded loads if required. You could also use a simple extendable one IMO. The empty weight increase of such a container wouldn't be very high in relation to an AKH's payload capability anyway and revenue volume flexibility.

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Newbiepilot
Posts: 3639
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 10:18 pm

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Sun Apr 22, 2018 12:17 am

keesje wrote:
morrisond wrote:
... I would love to see you do the same type of Analysis and show the same graphics with a 7W NMA Concept - Double Circle - NSA XL type of Concept. You might have already done it though. With a 36" wider LD3-45 in the Belly.


I assume a wider AKH variant could be possible, about 36-40inch / 2.4 m cubical extra as you say. An NMA 7 abreast could still use the standard AKH / LD3-45 containers and pallets (interoperability), but also use the wider variant if suitable. Or a combination of standard and wider containers / pallets and even bulk loaded loads if required. You could also use a simple extendable one IMO. The empty weight increase of such a container wouldn't be very high in relation to an AKH's payload capability anyway and revenue volume flexibility.

Image


That container is 14 inches wider than an LD8 (a pair of LD2s like used on a 767) and 19 inches shorter. I wonder if we will see an all new container if there is an NMA between 45 and 64 inches tall.
 
WIederling
Posts: 8888
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Sun Apr 22, 2018 8:12 am

par13del wrote:
Hmm..we know an awful lot about Boeing spending Billions bringing outsourced production facilities back in house, indeed some of those cost are in the deferred billions that all an sundry know about, I guess I need to start paying more attention to the financial reports of the vendors who are still there from the inception of the 787 run to get a better understanding of how much they lost.

Buying up a financially ailing partner must have been quite the bargain in most cases ( still expensive, but lots of value per money )
Murphy is an optimist

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos