777-500er
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United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 8:29 pm

United went through an impressive international expansion in 2016. The 787-9, along with cheap oil, has allowed it to enter markets that just seemed not feasible until a few years ago. With the entry into service of the 77Ws, a few more 787-9s and the imminent entry of the A35K and 787-10s, overall UA will have a growth in the long-haul wide-body fleet, even with the retirement of the 747s. Where is this excess capacity going to go? Will we see more focus on the West Coast? New services from EWR? A renewed interest in IAD or more confidence to the LAX hub?

Some guesses:

SFO-MEL
EWR-ICN
Increased frequencies on routes to China
Some seasonal routes to Europe
 
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LAXintl
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 8:42 pm

LAX will get a new flight per employee townhall last week...
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flyguy84
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 8:49 pm

LAXintl wrote:
LAX will get a new flight per employee townhall last week...

I have heard the same. Supposedly to be announced before the end of the month.
SFO
 
ualcsr
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 8:52 pm

I can't remember where I read, probably here on A.Net, that ORD-BOG was in the works.
 
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AVENSAB727
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 9:07 pm

My guesses would be:
IAH-MAR/VLN/PMV( once Venezuela gets over this chavismo fiasco)
IAH-Bolivia,Paraguay, and Uruguay
IAH-BRU- good replacement for IAH-MUC.
EWR-ICN
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MAH4546
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 9:10 pm

AVENSAB727 wrote:
My guesses would be:
IAH-MAR/VLN/PMV( once Venezuela gets over this chavismo fiasco)
IAH-Bolivia,Paraguay, and Uruguay
IAH-BRU- good replacement for IAH-MUC.
EWR-ICN


IAH-Paraguay/Uruguay/Bolivia is grossly unrealistic, as is IAH-VLN/PMV even assuming a healthy Venezuela.
a.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 9:19 pm

Expansion on IAH-Colombia with the Avianca deal seems likely.
The return of IAH-LOS has been rumored among the IAH gate agents, but that's exactly what it is, a gate agent rumor.
LAXintl wrote:
LAX will get a new flight per employee townhall last week...

LAX-BNE anyone?
777-500er wrote:
SFO-MELEWR-ICN

For this being a.net, those are actually not terrible guesses.
When wasn't America great?


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rbavfan
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 9:29 pm

777-500er wrote:
United went through an impressive international expansion in 2016. The 787-9, along with cheap oil, has allowed it to enter markets that just seemed not feasible until a few years ago. With the entry into service of the 77Ws, a few more 787-9s and the imminent entry of the A35K and 787-10s, overall UA will have a growth in the long-haul wide-body fleet, even with the retirement of the 747s. Where is this excess capacity going to go? Will we see more focus on the West Coast? New services from EWR? A renewed interest in IAD or more confidence to the LAX hub?

Some guesses:

SFO-MEL
EWR-ICN
Increased frequencies on routes to China
Some seasonal routes to Europe



Everyone always says with the 787-9 & cheap oil the route is feasible now. Oil has nothing to do with it. The smaller airframe being able to fly a route that would have required a larger plane before has to do with it. Otherwise the price of oil vs load factor would still make it a loss.
 
Seat1F
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 9:36 pm

AVENSAB727 wrote:
My guesses would be:
IAH-MAR/VLN/PMV( once Venezuela gets over this chavismo fiasco)
IAH-Bolivia,Paraguay, and Uruguay


Not going to see any of the above for the next 3-4 years....if ever. For goodness sake, AA has struggle to make ASU work from Miami. How on earth would UA be able to make it work from IAH.

The others you mentioned are possible.....but with the price of oil falling again for the last month (and predicted to fall some more), don't count on much new out of IAH? New service out of LAX/SFO/ORD/EWR is much more likely.
 
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787fan8
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 9:39 pm

I could see UA starting SFO-CKG with the 787.
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Future Auburn graduate
 
CHI787ORD
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 9:41 pm

Would love to see ORD-BOM but doubt it will ever happen
 
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Mortyman
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 9:49 pm

Would be nice if they would return to OSL
 
fun2fly
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 10:03 pm

LAXintl wrote:
LAX will get a new flight per employee townhall last week...


Exciting news for LAX!

At this point in the year, we'd be looking at a 2018 expansion for the most part.

I'd like to hope UA would continue to add 2-4 routes per year. LAX>? as noted above, SFO>Asia, EWR>? and one for either IAD/EWR/IAH most likely seasonal or Latin America.

Guessed would be EWR>ICN pending N. Korea's behavior, SFO>CAN, LAX>BNE.
 
globalcabotage
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 10:09 pm

Probably nothing out of ORD unless Parker has ideas. Nothing has been added there internationally for a couple of years, although T5 at peak times is full and will be that way for a couple of more years.
 
martin757
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 10:16 pm

Maybe SFO-MNL or LAX-MNL. That route is long overdue.
 
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CLEguy
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 10:28 pm

What about SFO-BKK?
 
Sightseer
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 10:30 pm

flyguy84 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
LAX will get a new flight per employee townhall last week...

I have heard the same. Supposedly to be announced before the end of the month.


If so, BNE (as another poster posited) would seem to add the most from a network standpoint, assuming we're talking about a widebody route. Off the top of my head, everything else I can think of would either intrude on a partner's flight, such as AKL or FRA, or wouldn't add as much to the overall network, like CDG or HKG. Of course, UA could be replacing a partner's flight or catering specifically to the demands of its LA customers, in which case any of those routes could perhaps be on the table.
 
kriskim
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 10:33 pm

Would love to see SFO-MEL! I think this flight could be a winner especially with Silicon Valley tech companies setting up their Asia Pacific HQ in Melbourne.
A world built upon connectivity.
 
Eirules
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 10:35 pm

I'm hoping for ORD-DUB to go year round, even if it's not daily through winter. Wouldn't rule out IAH-DUB seasonally if they can get into the Texas - Ireland market before EI / AA join forces
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IAHWorldflyer
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 10:36 pm

My guesses would be an expansion out of SFO. Possibly an SFO-MEL, or SFO-BNE. Also possibly SFO-CAN. I also think an EWR-ICN route would fill out their network. EWR-ARN or EWR-CPH could come back with a 763 as more 789's come on property. Near term, I don't see any new adds from IAH or ORD.
 
blueflyer
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 10:43 pm

AVENSAB727 wrote:
IAH-BRU- good replacement for IAH-MUC.

Traffic to BRU is still down due last year's airport attack (at least from the US). I'd expect UA would want to go back to 3x 777 daily (EWR/IAD/ORD) before adding another flight. Last I checked, BRU was still at 20 weekly flights on 2 777s and 1 767.
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RyanairGuru
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 10:47 pm

I could see LAX-AKL sessonally for the Southern Summer, good use of a frame during the Europe low season
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
N292UX
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 11:17 pm

SFO-FNJ. Make it happen.
 
jhsusman
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 11:24 pm

With the International "A" concourse expanding in DEN to handle more widebodies: DEN - LHR, DEN - CDG, DEN - ZRH
 
sq256
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 11:31 pm

martin757 wrote:
Maybe SFO-MNL or LAX-MNL. That route is long overdue.


Both routes are way too low yielding to support 2 carriers profitably (in Y heavy seating configs) on non-stop runs.

TWA772LR wrote:
LAX-BNE anyone?


The BNE-LAX route can barely accomodate 2 carriers at satisfactory yields. I'm aware VA lacks the international capacity to support daily from both MEL and BNE to LAX, but they had to cut back from daily to 6x weekly on the BNE-LAX route (along with axing SYD-AUH) to restart MEL-LAX which attracts more O&D.

IAHWorldflyer wrote:
My guesses would be an expansion out of SFO. Possibly an SFO-MEL, or SFO-BNE.


Bingo for the later if UA does decide to return to BNE at a later point, It'll likely be from SFO rather than LAX as the SFO hub offers a larger feed & as already mentioned the BNE-LAX is crowded enough already.
 
caverunner17
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 11:32 pm

jhsusman wrote:
With the International "A" concourse expanding in DEN to handle more widebodies: DEN - LHR, DEN - CDG, DEN - ZRH

With Norwegian adding DEN-LGW, I can't see UA flying DEN-LHR, except perhaps seasonally. I could see a seasonal DEN-CDG though.

ZRH doesn't have the O&D Traffic and if you're going to connect on an LH group flight, might as well be through MUC or FRA which LH already flies.
 
jhsusman
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 11:37 pm

DEN was a finalist for the LX ZRH route that was awarded to SAN last year. It sounded like "when" not "if" from what I understand. . .
 
United1
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 11:41 pm

I would say that LAX-BNE, LAX-HKG or a resumption of the second daily LAX-LHR flight would be possibilities...
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 11:44 pm

jhsusman wrote:
DEN was a finalist for the LX ZRH route that was awarded to SAN last year. It sounded like "when" not "if" from what I understand. . .

Wasn't that given to Edelweiss? If so, UA won't target that demographic.
sq256 wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
LAX-BNE anyone?


The BNE-LAX route can barely accomodate 2 carriers at satisfactory yields. I'm aware VA lacks the international capacity to support daily from both MEL and BNE to LAX, but they had to cut back from daily to 6x weekly on the BNE-LAX route (along with axing SYD-AUH) to restart MEL-LAX which attracts more O&D.


If United ever decides to actually get aggressive and wants to get it's hands dirty, 2 routes come to mind where they can totally kick out a competitor, LAX-BNE and IAH-ICN. UA has the critical mass, brand awareness, and even better aircraft than Virgin; as for IAH-ICN, Star feed on each side and great knowledge of the oil and shipping industry travel needs in Houston, oil is of course number one, pharmaceutical/medical is number 2, shipping is number 3, and aerospace is number 4 in the Houston economy.
When wasn't America great?


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LAX772LR
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Thu May 11, 2017 11:51 pm

martin757 wrote:
Maybe SFO-MNL or LAX-MNL. That route is long overdue.

Based on what: the trash fares, or the limited corporate ties?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
NichCage
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Fri May 12, 2017 12:12 am

SFO-MUC is being launched as a seasonal route, just to add to this.
 
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jetblastdubai
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Fri May 12, 2017 12:14 am

Sightseer wrote:
flyguy84 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
LAX will get a new flight per employee townhall last week...

I have heard the same. Supposedly to be announced before the end of the month.


Off the top of my head, everything else I can think of would either intrude on a partner's flight, such as AKL or FRA, or wouldn't add as much to the overall network, like CDG or HKG.


TLV?: existing station so no start-up costs, huge local market. TLV already served by 788 (SFO) so it fits with "all 787 LAX base" No *A competition.

Either way, looking forward to the announcement.
 
upwardfacing
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Fri May 12, 2017 12:21 am

HKG?
CDG?
AKL?

All are destinations UA has served from LAX in the past, I believe.
 
smi0006
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Fri May 12, 2017 12:22 am

I still feel SFO-MEL is a matter of when not if. No other carrier serves this route, and with the amount of capacity from all over the world pouring into melbourne I'd say APAM (Melbourne airport) are offering some attractive deals to continue to support their growth and investment model! Would hurt NZ though, not sure how that stands from an alliance perspective.
 
slider
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Fri May 12, 2017 12:25 am

777-500er wrote:
. Where is this excess capacity going to go?


There is no excess capacity. The 747 retirement and 773 delays are not good for overall capacity.
 
joeljack
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Fri May 12, 2017 12:59 am

TLV or HKG are my guesses! Others would be MNL, South America or just something in Mexico or Central America.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Fri May 12, 2017 1:03 am

martin757 wrote:
Maybe SFO-MNL or LAX-MNL. That route is long overdue.


Will never happen. Manila is low yield, VFR and long stage length and probably not economical even with a 787.
 
theSFOspotter
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Fri May 12, 2017 2:26 am

SFO-FCO/BNE with the 787-8, SFO-MEL 787-9
Q-400 A319 A320 B737-300/400/700/800/900ER B757-200/300 B787-8
 
DaufuskieGuy
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Fri May 12, 2017 2:39 am

LAX HKG is a huge route why aren't they back with that yet?
 
caverunner17
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Fri May 12, 2017 2:53 am

DaufuskieGuy wrote:
LAX HKG is a huge route why aren't they back with that yet?

Because it's served 5x daily by AA and CX already.
 
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AVENSAB727
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Fri May 12, 2017 4:02 am

MAH4546 wrote:
AVENSAB727 wrote:
My guesses would be:
IAH-MAR/VLN/PMV( once Venezuela gets over this chavismo fiasco)
IAH-Bolivia,Paraguay, and Uruguay
IAH-BRU- good replacement for IAH-MUC.
EWR-ICN


IAH-Paraguay/Uruguay/Bolivia is grossly unrealistic, as is IAH-VLN/PMV even assuming a healthy Venezuela.

Well, they were only guesses base on what I thought UA could fill out of IAH, VLN/PMV were based on the large population of Venezuelans that live in Houston, as PMV is a popular vacation spot for them, and I have heard that AA tried to start VLN but got denied. To be honest, any further expansion out of IAH will be out of Latin America.
Always look on the bright side of Life!
 
MAH4546
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Fri May 12, 2017 4:05 am

AVENSAB727 wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
AVENSAB727 wrote:
My guesses would be:
IAH-MAR/VLN/PMV( once Venezuela gets over this chavismo fiasco)
IAH-Bolivia,Paraguay, and Uruguay
IAH-BRU- good replacement for IAH-MUC.
EWR-ICN


IAH-Paraguay/Uruguay/Bolivia is grossly unrealistic, as is IAH-VLN/PMV even assuming a healthy Venezuela.

Well, they were only guesses base on what I thought UA could fill out of IAH, VLN/PMV were based on the large population of Venezuelans that live in Houston, as PMV is a popular vacation spot for them, and I have heard that AA tried to start VLN but got denied. To be honest, any further expansion out of IAH will be out of Latin America.


There's a good amount of Venezuelans who have escaped and moved to Houston, but I wouldn't say it's huge and it's not going to support VLN nor PLV. Porlamar's days a a popular vacation destination are gone and yes, AA was denied VLN, just like UA would be denied.

Not sure where UA can go next in LatAm. It has everything covered from IAH that'll work.
a.
 
babastud
Posts: 259
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Fri May 12, 2017 4:10 am

theSFOspotter wrote:
SFO-FCO/BNE with the 787-8, SFO-MEL 787-9


I concur with this guess
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Fri May 12, 2017 4:42 am

MAH4546 wrote:
AVENSAB727 wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:


Not sure where UA can go next in LatAm. It has everything covered from IAH that'll work.


IAH-CLO and IAH-GYE could work. But other than that, I cant think of anything else from IAH to Latin America that would work. That isnt already there.
Last edited by LAXdude1023 on Fri May 12, 2017 4:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Fri May 12, 2017 4:43 am

LAXdude1023 wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
AVENSAB727 wrote:


IAH-CLO and IAH-GYE could work. But other than that, I cant think of anything else from IAH to Latin America that would work that isnt already there.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
simpv
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Fri May 12, 2017 6:50 am

I agree with most of what has been said. Likely or soon from SFO seem to be SFO-MEL and SFO-BNE; I could see SFO-BKK, SFO-NGO, or SFO-CAN happening at some point in the next few years. LAX-HKG or LAX-FRA might be in the works. ORD-ICN or EWR-ICN. I can't see any expansion into Latin America now.
 
UAL777UK
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Fri May 12, 2017 7:24 am

What about SFO-DEL. Is that a cash cow for AI?
 
klwright69
Posts: 2702
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Fri May 12, 2017 7:48 am

UA is still in ARN seasonally. Only OSL was dropped.
I certainly think a seasonal flight from LAX to AKL or TLV might work (AKL for northern winter and TLV for the northern summer). CO and now UA have always done well in TLV especially.
Last I heard Nigeria is still the largest economy in Africa. LOS will probably come back if their economy gets it together and oil can bounce back.
GYE may certainly come back, as well as EWR to GIG. Did anyone here mention EWRGIG??
Bolivia or Paraguay are fun ideas, but meh, probably not any time soon.
I wonder if UA or any US carrier will ever serve anywhere in Eastern Europe or Russia. Just dreaming I guess.
There was once an article a number of years ago saying UA was going to serve Saudi Arabia with the 787. But nothing since then, but again probably dreaming on that one.
CO used to serve Cali. Another Colombian city may come. UA is has grown nicely in BOG.
I remember many, many years ago when CO flew the DC10 nonstop from EWR to SCL. Maybe that could return. All interesting ideas for the future.
 
DaufuskieGuy
Posts: 411
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Fri May 12, 2017 12:20 pm

caverunner17 wrote:
DaufuskieGuy wrote:
LAX HKG is a huge route why aren't they back with that yet?

Because it's served 5x daily by AA and CX already.


but they have similar competition with most if not all of their LAX long haul routes. My $ would be on HKG or BNE if indeed LAX is where they expand next.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 4191
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Re: United's future International Expansion

Fri May 12, 2017 1:08 pm

caverunner17 wrote:
jhsusman wrote:
With the International "A" concourse expanding in DEN to handle more widebodies: DEN - LHR, DEN - CDG, DEN - ZRH

With Norwegian adding DEN-LGW, I can't see UA flying DEN-LHR, except perhaps seasonally. I could see a seasonal DEN-CDG though.

ZRH doesn't have the O&D Traffic and if you're going to connect on an LH group flight, might as well be through MUC or FRA which LH already flies.

question?? What would Norwegian flying anywhere have to do with United?? Your Logic escapes me.

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