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LAX772LR
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EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Sun May 21, 2017 6:20 am

Another year, another mysterious MS crash.


Yesterday marked the 1yr anniversary of MS804 (CDG-CAI, SU-GCC) which disappeared from radar at 37000ft, with no mayday, and (IINM) hasn't had a definitive cause released even now, despite relatively early access to the wreckage.

Anyone know of updates?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Sun May 21, 2017 7:19 am

And I just found this: (nah, I found an old press release from 2016)

Nothing new on either the BEA site or http://www.civilaviation.gov.eg/ ... :boggled:

The latest "news" are still from December 2016 - that the Egyptian investigators found traces of explosives, while the BEA said otherwise.

I can't find any "preliminary report", despite the ICAO obligation to release one within 12 months of the accident.


David
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
sadiqutp
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Sun May 21, 2017 7:38 am

Latest development: The french investigators debunked the explosives theory
"There were no explosive charges" aboard the plane, the source said, because "no traces of powder were found" by police in samples taken from the remains of eight of the 15 French nationals killed.


http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/05/f ... 32076.html
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Sun May 21, 2017 7:41 am

flyingturtle wrote:
I can't find any "preliminary report", despite the ICAO obligation to release one within 12 months of the accident.

Indeed, that's the part that seems so odd... especially when terrorism was initially suspected to be at play.

The silence is deafening. :(
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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OA940
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Sun May 21, 2017 7:59 am

flyingturtle wrote:
I can't find any "preliminary report", despite the ICAO obligation to release one within 12 months of the accident.


David


Maybe, considering the explosive theory conflict, they have gotten nowhere and don't want to make their failure public.
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Aesma
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Sun May 21, 2017 3:04 pm

Egypt is saying it was a bomb so no fault for the country or the airline, no loss of face, and no money to give out.

The fact they're not publishing a report just means they can't back up their affirmation.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
cedarjet
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Sun May 21, 2017 3:18 pm

One theory at this point is the copilot's iPhone caught fire
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ikolkyo
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Sun May 21, 2017 3:28 pm

Yeah I'm not liking how quiet this investigation has been. Hope it does end up like 990.
 
klm617
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Sun May 21, 2017 4:17 pm

cedarjet wrote:
One theory at this point is the copilot's iPhone caught fire



I find that very hard to believe as one would have ample time to declare an emergency if a cell phone was on fire no less being able to put it out.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
AWACSooner
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Sun May 21, 2017 4:33 pm

Aesma wrote:
Egypt is saying it was a bomb so no fault for the country or the airline, no loss of face, and no money to give out.

The fact they're not publishing a report just means they can't back up their affirmation.

Given Egypt's knack for obfuscation and deflection of blame when it comes to crashes on their flagship airline, are you surprised?
 
ltbewr
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Sun May 21, 2017 4:36 pm

Aesma wrote:
Egypt is saying it was a bomb so no fault for the country or the airline, no loss of face, and no money to give out.

The fact they're not publishing a report just means they can't back up their affirmation.

That a bomb could be from domestic factions in Egypt wanting to hurt the government, it might be better to minimize and drag out the who/what of the investigation. Don't forget too this happened only several months after the loss of an aircraft from an Egyptian resort city and the unrest over the last several years, that certain people in government could be outed as disloyal and you got even more reason to play it down.
 
turjo101
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Sun May 21, 2017 5:07 pm

Could it be that the potential 'laptop ban' have something to do with information from this incident?
 
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Polot
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Sun May 21, 2017 5:18 pm

ltbewr wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Egypt is saying it was a bomb so no fault for the country or the airline, no loss of face, and no money to give out.

The fact they're not publishing a report just means they can't back up their affirmation.

That a bomb could be from domestic factions in Egypt wanting to hurt the government, it might be better to minimize and drag out the who/what of the investigation. Don't forget too this happened only several months after the loss of an aircraft from an Egyptian resort city and the unrest over the last several years, that certain people in government could be outed as disloyal and you got even more reason to play it down.


Yes, but remember the plane was flying from France. If a bomb was onboard (as the Egyptians claim) then they can blame the French and lax/improper security at CDG.

That is why they were quick to blame bomb and are slow to provide actual evidence.
 
texdravid
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Sun May 21, 2017 6:23 pm

Anyone expecting the truth or even a semblance of truth from Egyptair will be waiting an eternity.
This airline is the one that completely tried to shift blame with regards to the murderous rampage of their relief co-pilot Gameel in 1999 over the Atlantic. He committed MURDER-SUICIDE, and these morons tried to explain it away as some fault of Boeing, and the ridiculous claims that Muslims don't commit suicide.

So i don't and won't believe a single thing coming out of Egyptair. Their actions with regards to Flight 990 18 years ago were asinine and I can't believe anyone would fly their decrepit airline.
Tort reform now. Throw lawyers in jail later.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Mon May 22, 2017 3:29 am

texdravid wrote:
and these morons tried to explain it away as some fault of Boeing,

Though, IINM, the crash (specifically, the sheering of the elevator screws) did teach Boeing something that it didn't know about the 767's systems... as Boeing never really envisioned that one pilot would be pulling, and another would be pushing, for an extended amount of time at the top of the airframe's tolerances; and thus had no real way of knowing how the aircraft would react.


texdravid wrote:
and the ridiculous claims that Muslims don't commit suicide.

They sorta piped down on that one, after 9/11... but then I remember hearing it mentioned again circa 2007 (searching for the article). Ridiculous.


texdravid wrote:
So i don't and won't believe a single thing coming out of Egyptair. Their actions with regards to Flight 990 18 years ago were asinine and I can't believe anyone would fly their decrepit airline.

Agreed. It's one of my few personally-blacklisted major carriers. :(
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
ryanov
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Mon May 22, 2017 3:50 am

Seem to be a lot of presumptive statements being made by people about "other" countries. I don't think it's helpful.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Mon May 22, 2017 6:00 am

ryanov wrote:
Seem to be a lot of presumptive statements being made by people about "other" countries. I don't think it's helpful.

Nor is making blanket statements with no relevant specifics.

...what do you believe is being "presumed?"
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Mon May 22, 2017 11:03 am

Perhaps the ICAO could investigate this, as they already did with KAL007...


David
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gva380
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Mon May 22, 2017 12:17 pm

I hate to think that the cause could be technical and may never be found...
Just imagine a technical problem that would only happen once every 1 billion flights and may never be known...
 
Adipocere
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Mon May 22, 2017 1:47 pm

How capable is the Egyptian aviation authority to investigate a crash offshore in deep waters? Not to pick on them, but apart from the US, UK, Russia and maybe a couple of others around the world do the others even have the submersibles and the technology/ money to pursue an investigation on the seabed?
 
catiii
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Mon May 22, 2017 3:04 pm

cedarjet wrote:
One theory at this point is the copilot's iPhone caught fire


I have heard it was an iPad, mounted by the window on his side.
 
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qf789
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Mon May 22, 2017 3:16 pm

Here is the latest update from avherald published today

http://avherald.com/h?article=4987fb09&opt=0
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Tue May 23, 2017 12:01 pm

qf789 wrote:
Here is the latest update from avherald published today

http://avherald.com/h?article=4987fb09&opt=0


So definitely fire then...
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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GlenP
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Tue May 23, 2017 12:24 pm

Whilst an onboard fire would appear to be the likely cause of the accident, the article also states that, due to forensic examiners reportedly finding traces of explosive residue on some bodies, the matter has been referred to the public prosecutor, without stating that this is being pursued as the primary line of investigation.

In many ways this is a similar situation to that encountered with several air accidents, in the USA, in recent decades, in which the FBI has carried out investigations, in parallel with the NTSB, following eyewitness reports of mid-air explosions, indicating to said witnesses a bomb having detonated, or even a missile having brought down the aircraft.

In all such cases, the involvement of law enforcement agencies has had a tendency to delay, whilst not entirely stopping, the investigations of air accident investigation agencies (Think of TWA 800, which took 4 years between the loss of the aircraft and the publishing of the report, with a period of 16 months elapsing before the FBI admitted there were no indications of a terrorist act.).
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benbeny
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Tue May 23, 2017 12:50 pm

And how about European authorities, have they released their statements?
I don't know, Egypt is partially dependent on revenue from tourism, are they playing it so as not to alarm any potential tourists?
The members of the Technical Investigation Committee returned to Cairo with the boards to continue work and reading the contents of the recorders as well as analyzing them at the laboratories of the Ministry of Civil Aviation of Egypt. After the FDR data were uploaded and examined by the experts; the results indicated that the flight data had been recorded since the departure of the plane from Charles de Gaulle Airport until it stopped at 37000 thousand feet where the accident occurred. The recorded data of the recorder matched the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) messages which indicated smoke in the lavatory and smoke from the avionics compartment. When the CVR data was unloaded, conversation at the cabin prior to the accident at was heard, which mentioned the word fire.

I don't understand, it says that fire originated in avionics bay, but the FDR stopped recording suddenly at FL370. If it is fire in avionics bay, how can it make sudden stoppage of FDR recording?
 
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GlenP
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Tue May 23, 2017 1:18 pm

In other words, the recorder appears to have carried on working right up until the point at which the aircraft was lost, at 37 000 feet.

Not helped by the rather poor translation from what, one assumes, was the original Arabic.

BTW., the article is largely composed of statements released by the Egyptian CAA, with very few of them originating from the BEA.
Ubique Quo Fas et Gloria Ducunt
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Tue May 23, 2017 4:21 pm

GlenP wrote:
Whilst an onboard fire would appear to be the likely cause of the accident, the article also states that, due to forensic examiners reportedly finding traces of explosive residue on some bodies, the matter has been referred to the public prosecutor, without stating that this is being pursued as the primary line of investigation.


That was the old information (which was dubious anyway) - the most recent update highlighted in yellow (22nd of May 2017) indicates the Egyptian authorities now concur with the avionics fire instead of a bomb.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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GlenP
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Tue May 23, 2017 5:47 pm

Sorry, but I was able to see the update, from 22/05/2017, to the effect that the matter had been referred to the prosecutor, but nothing later than that.

Thanks for bringing that to my attention.
Ubique Quo Fas et Gloria Ducunt
 
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United787
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Tue May 23, 2017 6:21 pm

So, if there was a fire near one of the cockpit windows, could it have broken the window causing an explosive decompression? That would explain why things seem to have gone south so quickly with no distress call.
 
blueflyer
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Fri May 26, 2017 12:59 pm

catiii wrote:
cedarjet wrote:
One theory at this point is the copilot's iPhone caught fire


I have heard it was an iPad, mounted by the window on his side.

iPhone or iPad. According to a French newspaper, the copilot had both. The two devices can be seen in the cockpit on footage filmed by security cameras at the gate.

The French judges leading the inquiry have designated three experts to determine whether a lithium battery fire in either device could have caused the fire onboard. Specifically, the experts have been asked to look at whether the fire could have been caused by attempting to recharge a device using one of the sockets in the cockpit.

http://www.leparisien.fr/faits-divers/c ... 984861.php
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LAX772LR
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Sun May 28, 2017 8:13 am

Adipocere wrote:
How capable is the Egyptian aviation authority to investigate a crash offshore in deep waters? Not to pick on them, but apart from the US, UK, Russia and maybe a couple of others around the world do the others even have the submersibles and the technology/ money to pursue an investigation on the seabed?

Physical capability isn't where skepticism with them lies.

Willingness to accept evidence-based conclusions, on the other hand..........
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
debonair
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Sun May 28, 2017 11:46 am

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
So definitely fire then...


True, but I have problems to understand the reports....

According to avherald:
"The recorded data of the recorder matched the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) messages which indicated smoke in the lavatory and smoke from the avionics compartment. When the CVR data was unloaded, conversation at the cabin prior to the accident at was heard, which mentioned the word fire."

Lets say, the iphone/ipad of the First Officer started a fire, near the windshield inside the cockpit - why was smoke in the lavatory and why did "people" in the cabin reported fire?! And so far, why wasn't there a mayday call or emergency squawk by the crew? Wouldn't it be possible to extinguish the fire of a sole iphone/ipad with onboard equipment?
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: EgyptAir 804 crash 1yr on... answers?

Sun May 28, 2017 5:47 pm

It's been covered in previous threads but basically the airflow in the aircraft passes from cockpit through avionics bay to toilet and cabin.

The thing about battery fire in that area of the cockpit is that it could have been accelerated by the oxygen supply and quickly taken out systems such as communication.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."

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