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KTPAFlyer
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Is Emirates downgrading SFO to 777 effective 5NOV17?

Tue May 23, 2017 9:55 pm

Reports are emerging of further downgrades, this time in the form of the 777 replacing the A380 on DXB-SFO.

https://thepointsguy.com/2017/05/emirat ... dubai-sfo/
Last edited by qf789 on Wed May 24, 2017 7:33 am, edited 2 times in total.
Reason: updated title
 
atcpeter
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Re: Emirates downgrades SFO to 77W effective 5NOV17

Tue May 23, 2017 11:49 pm

It is possible this is just a seasonal down-gauge? Any idea what EK would do with the 2+ extra A380 frames this would free up? Also with QR starting up SFO service next year, wouldn't keeping the A380 provide a competitive product advantage? Would be curious about load factor numbers, if anyone has access to those.
 
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yowza
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Re: Emirates downgrades SFO to 77W effective 5NOV17

Wed May 24, 2017 12:05 am

atcpeter wrote:
It is possible this is just a seasonal down-gauge? Any idea what EK would do with the 2+ extra A380 frames this would free up? Also with QR starting up SFO service next year, wouldn't keeping the A380 provide a competitive product advantage? Would be curious about load factor numbers, if anyone has access to those.

Right around the same time as this downgauge DXB-BHX is being upped to double A380 so that will eat up some of the cycles.

YOWza
 
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legacyins
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Re: Emirates downgrades SFO to 77W effective 5NOV17

Wed May 24, 2017 12:09 am

EK website still showing an A380.

Image
 
NichCage
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Re: Emirates downgrades SFO to 77W effective 5NOV17

Wed May 24, 2017 1:23 am

If this is actually going to happen, than maybe AI had something to do with it. AI started SFO and it may have caused EK to have lower load factors possible. EY reduced service because of AI.
 
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Irehdna
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Re: Emirates downgrades SFO to 77W effective 5NOV17

Wed May 24, 2017 2:07 am

Does a B77W have the range to do DXB-SFO? 13041 km is quite long for any B77W flight, especially one with a higher-density 10-abreast economy. Does anybody know if EK have any HGW 77W, the ones with 351.5 tonnes MTOW? (For example while Jet Airways "Jetihad" 9W 6598 operated AUH-SFO they used a 9-abreast HGW 77W, which was sufficient to complete the route.)

I know the route was initially B77L and was now A380, don't know if 77W was operated in between.
 
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KTPAFlyer
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Re: Emirates downgrades SFO to 77W effective 5NOV17

Wed May 24, 2017 2:10 am

Irehdna wrote:
Does a B77W have the range to do DXB-SFO? 13041 km is quite long for any B77W flight, especially one with a higher-density 10-abreast economy. Does anybody know if EK have any HGW 77W, the ones with 351.5 tonnes MTOW? (For example while Jet Airways "Jetihad" 9W 6598 operated AUH-SFO they used a 9-abreast HGW 77W, which was sufficient to complete the route.)

I know the route was initially B77L and was now A380, don't know if 77W was operated in between.


My bad, I just realized that I put 77W in the title, the article actually just says 777, so it's possible that it could be operated by a 77L like FLL.
 
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Irehdna
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Re: Emirates downgrades SFO to 77W effective 5NOV17

Wed May 24, 2017 2:13 am

KTPAFlyer wrote:
My bad, I just realized that I put 77W in the title, the article actually just says 777, so it's possible that it could be operated by a 77L like FLL.


Yeah given the relatively premium nature of SFO versus their 77W destinations like DFW/IAH, I think a 77L is a real possibility (higher % of seats are premium class).
 
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mercure1
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Re: Emirates downgrades SFO to 77W effective 5NOV17

Wed May 24, 2017 2:27 am

Irehdna wrote:
Does a B77W have the range to do DXB-SFO?.


Absolutely. EK has for years utilized 77W on and off to LAX which is further than SFO.
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LAX772LR
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Re: Emirates downgrades SFO to 77W effective 5NOV17

Wed May 24, 2017 2:28 am

Irehdna wrote:
Does a B77W have the range to do DXB-SFO?

You tell us...
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Qantas744er
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Re: Emirates downgrades SFO to 77W effective 5NOV17

Wed May 24, 2017 2:46 am

Irehdna wrote:
Does a B77W have the range to do DXB-SFO? 13041 km is quite long for any B77W flight, especially one with a higher-density 10-abreast economy. Does anybody know if EK have any HGW 77W, the ones with 351.5 tonnes MTOW? (For example while Jet Airways "Jetihad" 9W 6598 operated AUH-SFO they used a 9-abreast HGW 77W, which was sufficient to complete the route.)

I know the route was initially B77L and was now A380, don't know if 77W was operated in between.


EK flew the B77W up until the A388 upgauge.

They have over 40 high MTOW -300ER's with 351.5t. All the latest 3 class birds are configured 8F/42J/306Y. First one delivered in that config and with the new seat was -EPV. The previous 3 class ULR config was 8F/42J/304Y, which most of them still have (old J seat). When they last scheduled B77W on DXB-SFO-DXB, they limited bookings to 308 total, out of 354.

Its on the conservative end, to avoid leaving passenger payload behind, so final seats filled on the day of can be greater.
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blrsea
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Re: Emirates downgrades SFO to 77W effective 5NOV17

Wed May 24, 2017 3:04 am

From Thanksgivings to Jan 1st week is peak travel season, as many take vacation during that time. At one time, fares had to be booked by Aug/Sept to fly in Dec as fares would go through the roof.

Similarly, June 1st week to end of August is peak summer travel season. Fares for SEA-India sectors used to be north of $1600 and that too if booked 2-3 months in advance. Even last year, one of my friends booked tickets for $1600+ two months in advance. Looks like travel has slowed down a lot this year. Fares are now in $1300-1400 range and that too 4-6 weeks before travel. Earlier years, it would be unthinkable as by that time fares would be through the roof. No wonder EK cut one flight during peak summer season for SEA. Wonder how things are in SFO/LAX areas. I know a few Indians who are delaying trips to outside US unless absolutely required, as they have been spooked by the earlier Trump order on barring entry even to valid visa holders for certain countries, as they are not sure if he will do it again for India or other countries.
 
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Re: Emirates downgrades SFO to 77W effective 5NOV17

Wed May 24, 2017 3:12 am

atcpeter wrote:
It is possible this is just a seasonal down-gauge?


In the absolute peak season for EK's SFO-India customer base? Tons of South Asians in SF and Silicon Valley take their annual vacation to travel home around Thanksgiving and Christmas, during those days EK A380 from SFO used to run jam-packed entirely with Indians and Pakistanis. If they are downgrading during that season, signs are not good for EK.
 
upwardfacing
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Re: Emirates downgrades SFO to 77W effective 5NOV17

Wed May 24, 2017 3:37 am

The OP could have posted the title as a question or stipulated that it is a possibility. There is no official confirmation at this time.
 
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Spiderguy252
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Re: Emirates downgrades SFO to 77W effective 5NOV17

Wed May 24, 2017 5:26 am

If Air India are responsible for this reduction, more power to them.
Vahroone
 
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KTPAFlyer
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Re: Emirates downgrades SFO to 77W effective 5NOV17

Wed May 24, 2017 6:09 am

Spiderguy252 wrote:
If Air India are responsible for this reduction, more power to them.


It has been said over a thousand times, especially here on A.net, but people way overestimate AI's ability to take market share just by adding a nonstop. Does SFO-DEL have good LF's? Absolutely. But this is not even close to enough to make a dent that will be noticed, let alone one that will change market dynamics enough to squeeze others out of the market. I hate to be that guy, but AI is still a hot mess and if not for the massive O/D pool that AI is lucky enough to have, from a management, economic, and operational perspective, it would be in the same basket as Alitalia and Airberlin, or a Kingfisher if you like. Emirates' reduction in the market is one of the most accurate reflectors of market demand because EK is one of the most, if not the most numbers run airline in the world, and they are not afraid to boost or reduce capacity where necessary on a basis much more frequent than other airlines, and SFO is merely one example of this. AI does not serve BOS, LAX, or SEA and EK made cuts to all three, so this is more indicative of an overall travel decline. AI's growth in one market cannot be used as a broad stroke to paint a picture of their overall competitiveness, but rather a macrocasm of EK's decision to reallocate capacity from a weak market to a strong one.
 
devmapper
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Re: Emirates downgrades SFO to 777 effective 5NOV17

Wed May 24, 2017 7:04 am

I think it is likely that the laptop ban has hit EK (and the ME3) adversely. On the other hand, I wouldn't mind seeing QR lose their shirt on DOH-SFO and then hear AAb whine about it.
 
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Spiderguy252
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Re: Emirates downgrades SFO to 77W effective 5NOV17

Wed May 24, 2017 8:22 am

KTPAFlyer wrote:
I hate to be that guy, but AI is still a hot mess and if not for the massive O/D pool that AI is lucky enough to have, from a management, economic, and operational perspective, it would be in the same basket as Alitalia and Airberlin, or a Kingfisher if you like.


By the same proviso, Emirates are massively fortunate to have the favourable geographical position that they have (among other benefits), and without it will be much like Qantas, Air New Zealand or Air Canada at best.

Regardless I think we should keep such natural circumstances aside during this discussion.
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Re: Emirates downgrades SFO to 77W effective 5NOV17

Wed May 24, 2017 9:10 am

Spiderguy252 wrote:
KTPAFlyer wrote:
I hate to be that guy, but AI is still a hot mess and if not for the massive O/D pool that AI is lucky enough to have, from a management, economic, and operational perspective, it would be in the same basket as Alitalia and Airberlin, or a Kingfisher if you like.


By the same proviso, Emirates are massively fortunate to have the favourable geographical position that they have (among other benefits), and without it will be much like Qantas, Air New Zealand or Air Canada at best.

Regardless I think we should keep such natural circumstances aside during this discussion.


How Would EK be like QF, NZ or AC what is wrong with them?

While QF and NZ are sort of end line carriers they make their own niche work for them and pick up connecting traffic from each other's back yards and I'm sure AC do the same where they are.
 
parapente
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Re: Is Emirates downgrading SFO to 777 effective 5NOV17?

Wed May 24, 2017 9:16 am

Has/will non stop from Delhi had an effect?Some/A little -no doubt.But note it will be in the profitable high yield sectors which is more of a concern.It does not mean that the central one stop to anywhere (at an attractive price) Emirates model is broken - it's not.Indeed one of the disadvantages of non stop is clearly you have no choice in your final destination.
As this thread is discussing,it is the total share and thus the 'type' (size)of aircraft you fly that would need to potentially change.The same is true of Qantas Perth /Lon or Sydney/Lon.All these flights may put pressure on the use of giant A380's IMHO.
 
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Re: Is Emirates downgrading SFO to 777 effective 5NOV17?

Wed May 24, 2017 11:12 am

An anecdotal Y booking between SFO-DEL for June '17, UA - $900, EK-$1200 and AI $2000.

So it could be a combination of UA/Chinese putting pressure on price side and AI's ability to command higher yields. I believe China offers shortest duration among one-stop options.
 
Lentini2001
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Re: Emirates downgrades SFO to 77W effective 5NOV17

Wed May 24, 2017 11:32 am

yowza wrote:
atcpeter wrote:
It is possible this is just a seasonal down-gauge? Any idea what EK would do with the 2+ extra A380 frames this would free up? Also with QR starting up SFO service next year, wouldn't keeping the A380 provide a competitive product advantage? Would be curious about load factor numbers, if anyone has access to those.

Right around the same time as this downgauge DXB-BHX is being upped to double A380 so that will eat up some of the cycles.

YOWza


BHX only a 2 class frame so simply a coincidence.
 
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OA940
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Re: Is Emirates downgrading SFO to 777 effective 5NOV17?

Wed May 24, 2017 12:04 pm

They announced they were downgrading their US routes in light of the travel ban.
A350/CSeries = bae
 
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yowza
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Re: Emirates downgrades SFO to 77W effective 5NOV17

Wed May 24, 2017 1:01 pm

Lentini2001 wrote:
yowza wrote:
atcpeter wrote:
It is possible this is just a seasonal down-gauge? Any idea what EK would do with the 2+ extra A380 frames this would free up? Also with QR starting up SFO service next year, wouldn't keeping the A380 provide a competitive product advantage? Would be curious about load factor numbers, if anyone has access to those.

Right around the same time as this downgauge DXB-BHX is being upped to double A380 so that will eat up some of the cycles.

YOWza


BHX only a 2 class frame so simply a coincidence.

Good point. That totally slipped my mind.

YOWza
 
theSFOspotter
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Re: Is Emirates downgrading SFO to 777 effective 5NOV17?

Wed May 24, 2017 2:40 pm

Schedules aren't published until June-ish. Have to wait and see. It's a possibility to downgrade since A is losing a gate every few weeks for resizing. A380 dems are moving from A1 to A5. Also the link was updated, EK isn't swapping anything. Glitch in third party sites.
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clrd4t8koff
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Re: Is Emirates downgrading SFO to 777 effective 5NOV17?

Wed May 24, 2017 5:42 pm

SFO is way over served with EK, EY + AI. We've already seen EY scale back to less than daily, now EK rumored to be downgauging to a 777.

QR would be smart to not launch SFO as they won't fill their plane. SFO can't even manage what it has now.
 
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legacyins
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Re: Is Emirates downgrading SFO to 777 effective 5NOV17?

Wed May 24, 2017 5:50 pm

Update from the original OP provided link:

Image
 
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SFOA380
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Re: Is Emirates downgrading SFO to 777 effective 5NOV17?

Wed May 24, 2017 7:00 pm

clrd4t8koff wrote:
SFO is way over served with EK, EY + AI. We've already seen EY scale back to less than daily, now EK rumored to be downgauging to a 777.

QR would be smart to not launch SFO as they won't fill their plane. SFO can't even manage what it has now.


It's not way over-served at all unless you have information regarding yields. EY scaled back because they're short on aircraft and DFW offered an incentive. International pax still growing at 8%...
 
texl1649
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Re: Is Emirates downgrading SFO to 777 effective 5NOV17?

Wed May 24, 2017 7:57 pm

I've read some pretty scathing feedback lately though on the air India 77w flying to the US. Funny. I doubt this is really cOmpetitive with the EK product.

https://thepointsguy.com/2017/05/air-in ... ss-review/
 
NichCage
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Re: Is Emirates downgrading SFO to 777 effective 5NOV17?

Wed Oct 04, 2017 10:46 pm

Air India killed Etihad Airways in SFO. I would assume at this point Etihad has poor load factors in SFO. Pretty sad to see Etihad leave SFO only after a few years.

I would think Air India affected Emirates at least a little bit in SFO. With more customers choosing non-stop to SFO from India instead of one stop via DXB, of course Emirates would lose a few customers. Even if Emirates ends A380 flights at SFO, at least frequencies aren't going down.
 
BlatantEcho
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Re: Is Emirates downgrading SFO to 777 effective 5NOV17?

Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:45 am

I’m booked on Emirates DXB-SFO in late February. Still shows A380.
I’m in first so looking forward to shower. Downgrade would be lame!
 
hayzel777
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Re: Is Emirates downgrading SFO to 777 effective 5NOV17?

Thu Oct 05, 2017 6:12 am

BlatantEcho wrote:
I’m booked on Emirates DXB-SFO in late February. Still shows A380.
I’m in first so looking forward to shower. Downgrade would be lame!

If you would scroll up, you can see that Emirates responded already and the A380 is going nowhere. This thread was done with 4 months ago and was suddenly brought back to life by someone talking about a temporary switch to the 777 for IAD.
 
clrd4t8koff
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Re: Is Emirates downgrading SFO to 777 effective 5NOV17?

Sat Nov 18, 2017 11:09 pm

hayzel777 wrote:
BlatantEcho wrote:
I’m booked on Emirates DXB-SFO in late February. Still shows A380.
I’m in first so looking forward to shower. Downgrade would be lame!

If you would scroll up, you can see that Emirates responded already and the A380 is going nowhere. This thread was done with 4 months ago and was suddenly brought back to life by someone talking about a temporary switch to the 777 for IAD.


SFO was switched to a 77W according to FlightAware. Today was the first time it has had an A380 in weeks. Seems like no more permanent EK A380 for SFO. The SFO market is way overserved. EY is gone, EK is downgauging, QR should be smart and never start this route.
 
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legacyins
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Re: Is Emirates downgrading SFO to 777 effective 5NOV17?

Sat Nov 18, 2017 11:32 pm

clrd4t8koff wrote:
hayzel777 wrote:
BlatantEcho wrote:
I’m booked on Emirates DXB-SFO in late February. Still shows A380.
I’m in first so looking forward to shower. Downgrade would be lame!

If you would scroll up, you can see that Emirates responded already and the A380 is going nowhere. This thread was done with 4 months ago and was suddenly brought back to life by someone talking about a temporary switch to the 777 for IAD.


SFO was switched to a 77W according to FlightAware. Today was the first time it has had an A380 in weeks. Seems like no more permanent EK A380 for SFO. The SFO market is way overserved. EY is gone, EK is downgauging, QR should be smart and never start this route.


Flightaware , just like you, are wrong. EK has been flying their A380 into SFO contiunulously for the past few years. So try again.
 
speedbird52
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Re: Is Emirates downgrading SFO to 777 effective 5NOV17?

Sat Nov 18, 2017 11:45 pm

legacyins wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:
hayzel777 wrote:
If you would scroll up, you can see that Emirates responded already and the A380 is going nowhere. This thread was done with 4 months ago and was suddenly brought back to life by someone talking about a temporary switch to the 777 for IAD.


SFO was switched to a 77W according to FlightAware. Today was the first time it has had an A380 in weeks. Seems like no more permanent EK A380 for SFO. The SFO market is way overserved. EY is gone, EK is downgauging, QR should be smart and never start this route.


Flightaware , just like you, are wrong. EK has been flying their A380 into SFO contiunulously for the past few years. So try again.

Did you see an Emirates A380 land at SFO yourself?
 
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SQ789
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Re: Is Emirates downgrading SFO to 777 effective 5NOV17?

Sat Nov 18, 2017 11:58 pm

No, SFO is still flown by the A380, but there is a report that IAD has been downgraded to 777 nearly months ago, however the A380 appears for return on 25 November.
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
 
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legacyins
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Re: Is Emirates downgrading SFO to 777 effective 5NOV17?

Sun Nov 19, 2017 12:06 am

speedbird52 wrote:
legacyins wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:

SFO was switched to a 77W according to FlightAware. Today was the first time it has had an A380 in weeks. Seems like no more permanent EK A380 for SFO. The SFO market is way overserved. EY is gone, EK is downgauging, QR should be smart and never start this route.


Flightaware , just like you, are wrong. EK has been flying their A380 into SFO contiunulously for the past few years. So try again.

Did you see an Emirates A380 land at SFO yourself?


If you asking me, yes. I work at SFO and my office looks right out on the A-International Gates.
 
speedbird52
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Re: Is Emirates downgrading SFO to 777 effective 5NOV17?

Sun Nov 19, 2017 12:55 am

legacyins wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
legacyins wrote:

Flightaware , just like you, are wrong. EK has been flying their A380 into SFO contiunulously for the past few years. So try again.

Did you see an Emirates A380 land at SFO yourself?


If you asking me, yes. I work at SFO and my office looks right out on the A-International Gates.

I think we would all trust you over Flightaware then.
 
Avionics09
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Re: Is Emirates downgrading SFO to 777 effective 5NOV17?

Sun Nov 19, 2017 3:01 am

Has anyone bothered checking flightradar24? A simple search will show that EK225 DXB-SFO is and has been operated by an A380.
 
voxkel
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Re: Is Emirates downgrading SFO to 777 effective 5NOV17?

Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:11 pm

FlightAware has many issues, wouldn't trust them. IIRC they claim IB operate A342 and A345 flights even though the airline does not have either of the planes. I would go with FlightRadar on this one.

Still surprised EK can operate A380 instead of 77W, given no other ME3 operates there. I thought 77W downgrade was inevitable.
 
blrsea
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Re: Is Emirates downgrading SFO to 777 effective 5NOV17?

Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:56 pm

Deleted...
 
CaliguyNYC
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Re: Is Emirates downgrading SFO to 777 effective 5NOV17?

Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:36 pm

I think what is hurting EY and EK in SFO is the fact that SFO traffic to India is a lot of business travel PLUS the VFR are professionals tied to FF programs / alliances. I feel that EK/EY do worst in markets that have high proportion of US origin premium traffic. My guess in SFO, all the US origin premium traffic goes to airlines in alliances. A paid trip to India is just too many miles/status miles to waste on a EK flight. EK gets India origin traffic (but only EK affiliated premium traffic). Aside from the AI nonstop, STAR, OW and now even DL with 9W have strong India networks. Both UA and DL let their FF earn generously on AI/9W respectively.

On airfares, Dec/Jan is still expensive to India. Out of NYC even EY is double the $800 fare they had in the off season. If fares are a bit lower, it is not because travel between US/India is down (its up yoy). There is just more capacity to India with EU airlines, 9W and AI all expanding. Btw both AI and UA seem to get a very good premium during peak season on their nonstops. Good for them. I think US-India is finally maturing. The nonstops are a pleasure to fly. Wish DL/9W would start JFK-BOM.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Is Emirates downgrading SFO to 777 effective 5NOV17?

Sun Nov 19, 2017 6:27 pm

speedbird52 wrote:
legacyins wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
Did you see an Emirates A380 land at SFO yourself?


If you asking me, yes. I work at SFO and my office looks right out on the A-International Gates.

I think we would all trust you over Flightaware then.

Flightaware isn't perfect, but still fun.

So the A380 remained. Eh... So much for a few AI flights pushing EK off a route. EY... Not as well managed.
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
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FoxtrotSierra
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Re: Is Emirates downgrading SFO to 777 effective 5NOV17?

Sun Nov 19, 2017 6:42 pm

voxkel wrote:
Still surprised EK can operate A380 instead of 77W, given no other ME3 operates there. I thought 77W downgrade was inevitable.


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