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N292UX
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Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 5:16 pm

This is a question I've though about for a while, but I've wondered what cites/airports have the highest change at becoming a "hub" for a airline. Some ideas I have include:
-RDU for DL?
-BOS for DL
-PDX for DL?
 
Konabuzz1967
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 5:21 pm

My perspective - RDU too close to ATL, BOS too close to JFK/LGA, PDX would distract from the focus on SEA. Just my uniformed 2 cents.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 5:32 pm

The only cities in the US that could make viable hubs (without the 800 pound Southwest gorilla) are AUS and SAT.

If an airline wants to go up against Southwest, then LAS, STL, MCI, and TPA could work.
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ncflyer
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 5:34 pm

My opinion is there won't be any new > 100 flight hubs in U.S. for at least next 10 years. I think the airlines have learned the hard way that unless a city has something really unique geography wise (SLC and CLT), you've got to be a giant city to support the fixed costs of a hub, a la EWR, ORD, IAH, etc. The fixed costs are covered by O/D traffic not connections. This is why practically every hub in medium sized cities like PIT/CLE/CMH/MEM/MCI/STL/RDU/BNA went the way of the dodo bird. Maybe/maybe I could see Alaska or JetBlue opening up a 75 flight new hub operation in one of those abandoned cities, but that would be it.

As for your guesses, well I suppose BOS may be an interesting one, clearly Delta is comfortable going after smaller airlines like they are doing with SEA, but as for RDU, not a chance--- Delta made it loud and clear when they shrunk CVG and closed MEM their plans for the Southeast USA.
 
ANA787
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 5:37 pm

N292UX wrote:
This is a question I've though about for a while, but I've wondered what cites/airports have the highest change at becoming a "hub" for a airline. Some ideas I have include:
-RDU for DL?
-BOS for DL
-PDX for DL?


Don't think PDX will see much more growth. Maybe PDX-CDG/ICN through the JV and a year round PDX-HNL. That's it.
 
N292UX
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 5:40 pm

Here's an interesting idea: UA builds a hub in TPA. Here's why:
UA has a much weaker presence in the State of Florida (and the Southeast) compared to DL, AA, WN and B6, and maybe others. There's a bunch of smaller markets that DL and AA are able to serve (ex: DAB, PNS), from their hubs in ATL and CLT. UA's closest hub to these airports is either IAH or IAD. If UA really wants to keep a significant presence in both FL, and the Southeastern US for that matter, a significant operation may be needed. TPA has more than enough room to support a significant operation from an airline like UA. It all depends on how much interest UA would really have in serving these airports and legitimately give AA, DL, B6 and WN a run for their money.
Just my two cents, I could be completely wrong.
 
Noise
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 5:41 pm

Something interesting is happening at SAN with AS.

RDU=DL focus city...nothing more (and that's not necessarily a bad thing).

The only other cities that have a mix of size and geography that can maybe support a hub would be AUS, BNA and MCI (they need to resolve threat terminal problems first)
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 5:42 pm

New international hubs will be outside the U.S., and near-term, most likely in India. 9W, 6E, and UK will be the driving forces.

Query how soon the CCP will allow inland CN domestic hubs to have international routes.
 
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pitbosflyer
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 5:43 pm

ncflyer wrote:
BOS may be an interesting one, clearly Delta is comfortable going after smaller airlines like they are doing with SEA.


Delta has already been calling BOS a hub for a few years now. They have also revealed their intentional to ramp up the amount of daily flights and destinations heavily to compete against B6.

On Delta and the Boston Hub
http://news.delta.com/boston-logan-inte ... -airport-0

Future BOS plans from Delta CEO
http://www.bizjournals.com/boston/news/ ... re-of.html
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TWA772LR
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 5:46 pm

N292UX wrote:
Here's an interesting idea: UA builds a hub in TPA. Here's why:
UA has a much weaker presence in the State of Florida (and the Southeast) compared to DL, AA, WN and B6, and maybe others. There's a bunch of smaller markets that DL and AA are able to serve (ex: DAB, PNS), from their hubs in ATL and CLT. UA's closest hub to these airports is either IAH or IAD. If UA really wants to keep a significant presence in both FL, and the Southeastern US for that matter, a significant operation may be needed. TPA has more than enough room to support a significant operation from an airline like UA. It all depends on how much interest UA would really have in serving these airports and legitimately give AA, DL, B6 and WN a run for their money.
Just my two cents, I could be completely wrong.

TPA would be a backtrack for every single city it serves except Miami if UA were to put a hub there for connections.

As much as I would love to see an SE hub for UA, it's not going to happen and that's per an interview with the VP of planning.
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WPvsMW
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 5:47 pm

BOS is a domestic hub. Only 5 intl destinations.
 
N292UX
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 5:53 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
N292UX wrote:
Here's an interesting idea: UA builds a hub in TPA. Here's why:
UA has a much weaker presence in the State of Florida (and the Southeast) compared to DL, AA, WN and B6, and maybe others. There's a bunch of smaller markets that DL and AA are able to serve (ex: DAB, PNS), from their hubs in ATL and CLT. UA's closest hub to these airports is either IAH or IAD. If UA really wants to keep a significant presence in both FL, and the Southeastern US for that matter, a significant operation may be needed. TPA has more than enough room to support a significant operation from an airline like UA. It all depends on how much interest UA would really have in serving these airports and legitimately give AA, DL, B6 and WN a run for their money.
Just my two cents, I could be completely wrong.

TPA would be a backtrack for every single city it serves except Miami if UA were to put a hub there for connections.

As much as I would love to see an SE hub for UA, it's not going to happen and that's per an interview with the VP of planning.

Arguably, their SE hub is IAD. That's also disputable, as it's a 2.5 hour flight to places like TPA and MIA. Plus, I doubt UA has many more plans of expanding there, most east coast expansions will probably come at EWR.
Along with that, I agree with the low chances of a TPA hub occurring. As cool as it would be to see, I doubt UA has much interest in going through the whole process of making a hub, and we really don't see many new hubs in the present day. Plenty of cuts at some hubs, and turning others (like IAH, ATL) into flat-out fortress hubs.
 
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pitbosflyer
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 5:53 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
BOS is a domestic hub. Only 5 intl destinations.


The thread author didn't specify that we are only talking international hubs. But yes you are correct, currently it is not an international hub.

Another possibility in the future, is some sort of midwest hub for AS or B6. Plenty of old hub airports with excess space.
Last edited by pitbosflyer on Tue May 30, 2017 5:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 5:54 pm

If anyone opens up a new hub, I think it will be AS or B6.

With regards to BOS, DL already calls it a hub. But it's not a hub in (at least what I think of) the typical use of the word with large connecting banks etc...) DL is going after O&D for corporate contracts. It's attractive because neither AA nor UA have a large hub there, and it's wealthy. DL has plainly stated their goal to take over the remaining Terminal A gates and growth by another 40-50 daily flights, but at max it's a 150 daily peak flight largely O&D focused hub. As mentioned in another thread recently, there are some connections that happen through BOS, but I don't think it will ever be Seattle East or JFK version 2.
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tlecam
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 5:58 pm

pitbosflyer wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
BOS is a domestic hub. Only 5 intl destinations.


The thread author didn't specify that we are only talking international hubs. But yes you are correct currently it is not an international hub.

Another possibility in the future, is some sort of midwest hub for AS or B6. Plenty of old hub airports with excess space.


If anything, I think we'll see SKyteam partners add more int'l flights in Boston more often than DL. By no means am I suggesting that these are likely, but if we're going to see growth it would come from the likes of KE, China / Eastern / Southern, Czech, Aeroflot etc...

I think that KE and possibly one of the Chinese carriers are the only ones with a hint of near term potential. Czech only has one leased wide body and would serve a lot of other cities internationally first.
Last edited by tlecam on Tue May 30, 2017 5:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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N292UX
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 5:59 pm

pitbosflyer wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
BOS is a domestic hub. Only 5 intl destinations.


The thread author didn't specify that we are only talking international hubs. But yes you are correct, currently it is not an international hub.

Another possibility in the future, is some sort of midwest hub for AS or B6. Plenty of old hub airports with excess space.

STL, MEM and MCI say hello.
 
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 6:03 pm

N292UX wrote:
Here's an interesting idea: UA builds a hub in TPA. Here's why:
UA has a much weaker presence in the State of Florida (and the Southeast) compared to DL, AA, WN and B6, and maybe others. There's a bunch of smaller markets that DL and AA are able to serve (ex: DAB, PNS), from their hubs in ATL and CLT. UA's closest hub to these airports is either IAH or IAD. If UA really wants to keep a significant presence in both FL, and the Southeastern US for that matter, a significant operation may be needed. TPA has more than enough room to support a significant operation from an airline like UA. It all depends on how much interest UA would really have in serving these airports and legitimately give AA, DL, B6 and WN a run for their money.
Just my two cents, I could be completely wrong.


I suppose that could work, B6,3M,NK,AS could move out of A, and give UA all of airside A. UAX could use A1-2 as 3m does now. I like the idea, but the problem with being an actual hub though is TPA is kinda out of the way for just about every flight not going to Florida. Would you want to connect in TPA for a flight say RDU-LAX? Then again airside A isn't designed for connections, FL had A15-18, and all baggage handling goes through the old airside B. It was a pain running bags from baggage make up to the gates. We did get connecting pax to gpt, eyw, and others. I would love for TPA to be a hub, but it's good enough asa focus city for DL,AA,and WN
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TWA772LR
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 6:04 pm

N292UX wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
N292UX wrote:
Here's an interesting idea: UA builds a hub in TPA. Here's why:
UA has a much weaker presence in the State of Florida (and the Southeast) compared to DL, AA, WN and B6, and maybe others. There's a bunch of smaller markets that DL and AA are able to serve (ex: DAB, PNS), from their hubs in ATL and CLT. UA's closest hub to these airports is either IAH or IAD. If UA really wants to keep a significant presence in both FL, and the Southeastern US for that matter, a significant operation may be needed. TPA has more than enough room to support a significant operation from an airline like UA. It all depends on how much interest UA would really have in serving these airports and legitimately give AA, DL, B6 and WN a run for their money.
Just my two cents, I could be completely wrong.

TPA would be a backtrack for every single city it serves except Miami if UA were to put a hub there for connections.

As much as I would love to see an SE hub for UA, it's not going to happen and that's per an interview with the VP of planning.

Arguably, their SE hub is IAD. That's also disputable, as it's a 2.5 hour flight to places like TPA and MIA. Plus, I doubt UA has many more plans of expanding there, most east coast expansions will probably come at EWR.
Along with that, I agree with the low chances of a TPA hub occurring. As cool as it would be to see, I doubt UA has much interest in going through the whole process of making a hub, and we really don't see many new hubs in the present day. Plenty of cuts at some hubs, and turning others (like IAH, ATL) into flat-out fortress hubs.

My opinion is that the SE is served adequately with IAH and IAD. You can pretty much draw a line from XNA to JAX and divvy up the smaller cities between IAH and IAD, with cities below the line going to IAH and cities above the line going to IAD, with large enough cities having both.

In my first post I forgot to mention BNA, but again, Southwest.
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 6:08 pm

I would think MCO would have a greater chance than TPA.
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fightforlove
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 6:12 pm

Would Austin-Bergstrom be a potential hub for DL to get back into the Texas market? ATX is a lot smaller than DFW and IAH, but Austin is a booming city and it's smack dab in the middle of the Texas triangle.
 
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 6:15 pm

I'd like to see CPT get a new airport and become a hub. Doubt it will ever happen though.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 6:28 pm

N292UX wrote:
pitbosflyer wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
BOS is a domestic hub. Only 5 intl destinations.


The thread author didn't specify that we are only talking international hubs. But yes you are correct, currently it is not an international hub.

Another possibility in the future, is some sort of midwest hub for AS or B6. Plenty of old hub airports with excess space.

STL, MEM and MCI say hello.


Nope, STL, WN would squash any effort by B6 and AS in STL, MEM doesn't have enough O&D and would be an extremely weak market to feed connections through (no service to JFK/bay area/bos- show there is very little demand for air travel in MEM), MCI no airline is going to set up any sort of medium-large up in the current layout of MCI although it is ideally placed for connections(doubtful WN would give up MCI easily).

Let me provide you with my possibilities:
AUS- Very strong demand with tech to West coast, already large station for both B6 and AS
IND- Relatively strong demand with tech to the west coast, easy airport for connections, Alaska has already expressed that it wants to expand ops at IND, Four out of the five airports currently underserved from IND are to the west coast, relatively no fight from
MKE- Perfect place for connections, Embraer can reach both coasts with easily, less fight from WN, could also serve chicago northern suburbs
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
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tlecam
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 6:35 pm

fightforlove wrote:
Would Austin-Bergstrom be a potential hub for DL to get back into the Texas market? ATX is a lot smaller than DFW and IAH, but Austin is a booming city and it's smack dab in the middle of the Texas triangle.


I could see DL doing something in AUS similar to what they've done in RDU. I think it would largely be O&D based.
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 6:45 pm

Assuming the OP meant "hub" as in like a large hub, not a large focus city like DL @ BOS or what RDU can become, it would have to be where there is already the necessary infrastructure or it can be easily built.

With 4 parallel runways and triple simultaneous ILS capability, MCO has the land and infrastructure to support a hubbing operation. While carriers are currently duking it out at FLL, there is little room to grow there long term. What you see going on there now is a "land grab".

So outside of CVG STL PIT or MEM coming back online, i think MCO is the only true potential to become a "new" large hub operation.
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N292UX
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 6:56 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
N292UX wrote:
pitbosflyer wrote:

The thread author didn't specify that we are only talking international hubs. But yes you are correct, currently it is not an international hub.

Another possibility in the future, is some sort of midwest hub for AS or B6. Plenty of old hub airports with excess space.

STL, MEM and MCI say hello.


Nope, STL, WN would squash any effort by B6 and AS in STL, MEM doesn't have enough O&D and would be an extremely weak market to feed connections through (no service to JFK/bay area/bos- show there is very little demand for air travel in MEM), MCI no airline is going to set up any sort of medium-large up in the current layout of MCI although it is ideally placed for connections(doubtful WN would give up MCI easily).

Let me provide you with my possibilities:
AUS- Very strong demand with tech to West coast, already large station for both B6 and AS
IND- Relatively strong demand with tech to the west coast, easy airport for connections, Alaska has already expressed that it wants to expand ops at IND, Four out of the five airports currently underserved from IND are to the west coast, relatively no fight from
MKE- Perfect place for connections, Embraer can reach both coasts with easily, less fight from WN, could also serve chicago northern suburbs

I could possibly see those working. I know NW had a focus city at IND, but weren't they also starting to build a significant operation out of MKE at the time of their merger with DL?
 
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 6:58 pm

MCI is a strange beast. It could handle huge capacity with the land available. But the old terminals kill it. The new proposal, while very nice and amazingingly generous by Burns and McDonald, doesn't have the capacity it really needs to stretch it's legs. With the proposed airport redo at MCI, I think that WN will dominate everything there. However, I could see DL or UA making a mild move to increase capacity. AA never would with DFW so close. RUD will certainly be built up even more than it currently is by DL. WN will add flights as well, I'm willing to bet on that.
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 7:05 pm

B6 at SJC- Seems like a prime opportunity for B6 to open a legitimate west coast hub.

B6 at PDX- Another option for more west coast exposure. Less likely than SJC because of the large AS/VX presence.

B6 or AS/VX at MKE- To get into the Midwest market.

WN at EWR- With their recent west coast additions, this has been seeming more and more likely. They still have very little presence in the NYC market, making it the largest hole in their network.
Last edited by gregn21 on Tue May 30, 2017 7:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 7:06 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
Assuming the OP meant "hub" as in like a large hub, not a large focus city like DL @ BOS or what RDU can become, it would have to be where there is already the necessary infrastructure or it can be easily built.

With 4 parallel runways and triple simultaneous ILS capability, MCO has the land and infrastructure to support a hubbing operation. While carriers are currently duking it out at FLL, there is little room to grow there long term. What you see going on there now is a "land grab".

So outside of CVG STL PIT or MEM coming back online, i think MCO is the only true potential to become a "new" large hub operation.


Isn't a hub for DL in MCO a little redundant, considering ATL and RDU are so close, and almost any domestic connection would require you to backtrack. Plus F9, B6, WN, and NK have large operations in MCO as well so there isn't a lot of market for a DL hub in MCO. MCO is also a low-cost destination that's why F9, WN, B6, and NK have such large operations in MCO, and DL, AA, and UA do not, and that isn't magically going to change overnight.
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 7:19 pm

India and China will be where action is. I agree AUS might support a strong focus city.
 
RL757PVD
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 7:20 pm

I wasnt suggesting a DL hub at MCO... im simply saying if there was going to be a "new" hub (assuming large scale as we can toss out gateways and focus cities all day long) that MCO is likely the best candidate.
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 7:20 pm

What do we consider a "hub"? Amount of flights a day? If so, what number does it have to pass to be a hub? Or an airline calling it a hub? I just wanted to know what metric we are using. Are giving some WN destinations hub status already (and throwing them out for this convo, assuming we aren't talking about airports that already are a hub) even though they don't technically have them? That might influence my answer on this. Thanks
 
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 7:33 pm

I think the classic definition of a hub will disappear. Already the difference between hub and focus city is blurred.

Aircraft such as the 787 (and strangely enough, the 757) made bypassing hubs, especially internationally, viable. RDU, PIT, MSY, etc would never support a 330 or 777 (without subsidies or guarantees), and once a MOM or 322 comes around, STL and MCI will join the TATL party.

Domestically, I'd never thought I'd see the day where Omaha would get SEA PDX and SAN nonstops on Alaska, and I think it's only a matter of time before the big guys start their own flights and bypass PHX SLC DEN. And LAS will go nuts--it'll be hard to find a 1-stop routing from there!

So the next step is for *every* metro airport to become a focus city. Being a hub will only be a prestige thing, (and maybe a 'naming rights' tax incentive deal for airlines).

Until the next oil crisis...
 
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coronado
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 7:40 pm

I was thinking in terms of United at MCO or perhaps Jet Blue if they decide to emulate West Jet and get some larger longer range aircraft. It can certainly become the most viable competing hub to MIA

But I think Delta may built up a hublet there in spite of Atl being close. The o&d at MCO continues to grow at so the marginal cost of setting up connecting banks is relatively minor.
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 7:42 pm

BN727227Ultra wrote:
I think the classic definition of a hub will disappear. Already the difference between hub and focus city is blurred.

Aircraft such as the 787 (and strangely enough, the 757) made bypassing hubs, especially internationally, viable. RDU, PIT, MSY, etc would never support a 330 or 777 (without subsidies or guarantees), and once a MOM or 322 comes around, STL and MCI will join the TATL party.

Domestically, I'd never thought I'd see the day where Omaha would get SEA PDX and SAN nonstops on Alaska, and I think it's only a matter of time before the big guys start their own flights and bypass PHX SLC DEN. And LAS will go nuts--it'll be hard to find a 1-stop routing from there!

So the next step is for *every* metro airport to become a focus city. Being a hub will only be a prestige thing, (and maybe a 'naming rights' tax incentive deal for airlines).

Until the next oil crisis...


Well....WN is already doing that :D
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 7:51 pm

Maybe STL or MCI for a midcon midmajor hub. (b6/AS/NK?)

DEN, MSP, ORD, DFW all already provide too much competition.
 
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 7:53 pm

MKE needs more options than just SW. When I worked at the airport, that's when Midwest Express, the best airline ever, was going strong. Northwest had their own terminal. Too bad all of the airlines that had a big presence have gone away. The old Northwest terminal is basically empty and the old Midwest terminal only has a few gates that are actually used. I know that we don't get more flight due to the fact ORD is so close. Jet Blue would be nice, more Alaska would be great. Any thing to get Southwest more competition.
 
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TransWorldOne
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 7:59 pm

I've always thought SAT would make a great hub/gateway airport for DL to operate flights to a variety of destinations in Mexico and South Texas. I could see SAT-MEX, MTY, GDL, SLP, CUU, CUN, TRC, BJX, CRP, BRO, MFE, PVR, QRO, etc. Many of these destination are a bit too far to be operated profitably from ATL but might work with a small gateway at SAT using RJ'S, especially with the Aeromexico JV in place.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 8:04 pm

BN727227Ultra wrote:
RDU, PIT, MSY, etc would never support a 330 or 777 (without subsidies or guarantees)

That's not true at all.

RDU-LHR has a 777 on it now, and the subsidies are long gone.

BA has already publicly stated its intent for MSY-LHR to go 4class, without specifying model type. As AUS has been both a 4class 77E and 789, it's not much of stretch to see MSY going with one and/or the other at various times either.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
FlyingHollander
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 8:07 pm

Africa! Africa will desperately need more hubs in the future. ACC and especially LOS have a ton of potential.
If it ain't Dutch, it ain't much.
 
cloudboy
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 8:09 pm

ncflyer wrote:
My opinion is there won't be any new > 100 flight hubs in U.S. for at least next 10 years. I think the airlines have learned the hard way that unless a city has something really unique geography wise (SLC and CLT), you've got to be a giant city to support the fixed costs of a hub, a la EWR, ORD, IAH, etc. The fixed costs are covered by O/D traffic not connections. This is why practically every hub in medium sized cities like PIT/CLE/CMH/MEM/MCI/STL/RDU/BNA went the way of the dodo bird. Maybe/maybe I could see Alaska or JetBlue opening up a 75 flight new hub operation in one of those abandoned cities, but that would be it.

As for your guesses, well I suppose BOS may be an interesting one, clearly Delta is comfortable going after smaller airlines like they are doing with SEA, but as for RDU, not a chance--- Delta made it loud and clear when they shrunk CVG and closed MEM their plans for the Southeast USA.


I've still never got clear answer on exactly what makes a hub "cost" more, or what makes a hub "profitable". Obviously you need equipment to handle the additional flights, but that is no different than at another airport that isn't a hub. What am I missing?
"Six becoming three doesn't create more Americans that want to fly." -Adam Pilarski
 
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lesfalls
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 8:12 pm

-LGW and BCN for DY.
I wonder if AS has some plans in the longterm.
Lufthansa: Einfach ein bisschen besser.
 
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BN727227Ultra
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 8:15 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
BN727227Ultra wrote:
RDU, PIT, MSY, etc would never support a 330 or 777 (without subsidies or guarantees)

That's not true at all.

RDU-LHR has a 777 on it now, and the subsidies are long gone.


I squat corrected, and happy to be wrong.

LAX772LR wrote:
BA has already publicly stated its intent for MSY-LHR to go 4class, without specifying model type. As AUS has been both a 4class 77E and 789, it's not much of stretch to see MSY going with one and/or the other at various times either.


I'm not surprised about AUS, but I'll eat a palmetto bug if BA lands a 77E at MSY. (Fried, ketchup, liquor.)
 
777PHX
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 8:23 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
N292UX wrote:
pitbosflyer wrote:

The thread author didn't specify that we are only talking international hubs. But yes you are correct, currently it is not an international hub.

Another possibility in the future, is some sort of midwest hub for AS or B6. Plenty of old hub airports with excess space.

STL, MEM and MCI say hello.


Nope, STL, WN would squash any effort by B6 and AS in STL, MEM doesn't have enough O&D and would be an extremely weak market to feed connections through (no service to JFK/bay area/bos- show there is very little demand for air travel in MEM), MCI no airline is going to set up any sort of medium-large up in the current layout of MCI although it is ideally placed for connections(doubtful WN would give up MCI easily).

Let me provide you with my possibilities:
AUS- Very strong demand with tech to West coast, already large station for both B6 and AS
IND- Relatively strong demand with tech to the west coast, easy airport for connections, Alaska has already expressed that it wants to expand ops at IND, Four out of the five airports currently underserved from IND are to the west coast, relatively no fight from
MKE- Perfect place for connections, Embraer can reach both coasts with easily, less fight from WN, could also serve chicago northern suburbs


Not following your logic here with Austin. WN has the same stranglehold at AUS that they do at STL. WN carries almost twice as many passengers as its next nearest competitor at AUS, which is AA. AUS is also a rather small airport so any sort of expansion would be tempered.
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 8:31 pm

I could see STL for WN.....that's about it.
 
SFOATLFlyer
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 8:34 pm

fightforlove wrote:
Would Austin-Bergstrom be a potential hub for DL to get back into the Texas market? ATX is a lot smaller than DFW and IAH, but Austin is a booming city and it's smack dab in the middle of the Texas triangle.


Not enough gates to make AUS a viable hub. I know they are adding some gates, and the long term planning is looking to double the gate space, but not for now.

There may be more focus cities pop up, but unlikely anything 150+ flights. The big three are well spread out, WN is WN. B6 could have started a hub in the middle of the country years ago had they wanted. AS maybe, but they need to complete the VX acquisition and get integrated first.
 
ncflyer
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 8:41 pm

cloudboy wrote:
ncflyer wrote:
My opinion is there won't be any new > 100 flight hubs in U.S. for at least next 10 years. I think the airlines have learned the hard way that unless a city has something really unique geography wise (SLC and CLT), you've got to be a giant city to support the fixed costs of a hub, a la EWR, ORD, IAH, etc. The fixed costs are covered by O/D traffic not connections. This is why practically every hub in medium sized cities like PIT/CLE/CMH/MEM/MCI/STL/RDU/BNA went the way of the dodo bird. Maybe/maybe I could see Alaska or JetBlue opening up a 75 flight new hub operation in one of those abandoned cities, but that would be it.

As for your guesses, well I suppose BOS may be an interesting one, clearly Delta is comfortable going after smaller airlines like they are doing with SEA, but as for RDU, not a chance--- Delta made it loud and clear when they shrunk CVG and closed MEM their plans for the Southeast USA.


I've still never got clear answer on exactly what makes a hub "cost" more, or what makes a hub "profitable". Obviously you need equipment to handle the additional flights, but that is no different than at another airport that isn't a hub. What am I missing?


That is a GREAT question, probably worth a thread of its own, and I'm not sure I can do justice in writing. In my understanding (and I'm no industry insider) it goes something like this, and it's best explained with a city like Charlotte, which is an old time hub in that it is not a big O/D city like ORD or EWR or DFW. Charlotte has 6 flights per day on AA to LAX as an example, on big planes. Clearly there is nowhere near demand like that originating in CLT. So the planes are filled with mainly connecting passengers. They have all these fixed costs of landing people, processing them, double handling their luggage, taking off, etc., etc. A passenger flying CLT to LAX is so much cheaper to handle than let's say GSO to LAX via CLT, yet often the fares are comparable or if anything it's well understood that hub flyers pay a premium for nonstop service on a carrier that often has a bit of a monopoly (unless the ULCC have cherry picked the route too).

Now obviously a U.S. airline needs hubs to serve the entire country-- no way can GSO to LAX be served nonstop, but if the hubs are redundant, or they don't have a lot of originating traffic, then an airline is adding cost without enhancing it's network. Hubs in big cities are so damn desirable because they are filled up first and foremost with lowest cost to serve, highest fare paying customers first and foremost and the connectors are gravy. I think the ULCC in U.S. have been very effective at cherry picking routes from the major carriers, even in the fortress hubs.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 8:50 pm

777PHX wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
N292UX wrote:
STL, MEM and MCI say hello.


Nope, STL, WN would squash any effort by B6 and AS in STL, MEM doesn't have enough O&D and would be an extremely weak market to feed connections through (no service to JFK/bay area/bos- show there is very little demand for air travel in MEM), MCI no airline is going to set up any sort of medium-large up in the current layout of MCI although it is ideally placed for connections(doubtful WN would give up MCI easily).

Let me provide you with my possibilities:
AUS- Very strong demand with tech to West coast, already large station for both B6 and AS
IND- Relatively strong demand with tech to the west coast, easy airport for connections, Alaska has already expressed that it wants to expand ops at IND, Four out of the five airports currently underserved from IND are to the west coast, relatively no fight from
MKE- Perfect place for connections, Embraer can reach both coasts with easily, less fight from WN, could also serve chicago northern suburbs


Not following your logic here with Austin. WN has the same stranglehold at AUS that they do at STL. WN carries almost twice as many passengers as its next nearest competitor at AUS, which is AA. AUS is also a rather small airport so any sort of expansion would be tempered.


In AUS as of March 16, 2017, Southwest offers up to 64 departures a day to 27 cities from AUS and operates 6 gates
In STL As of March 16, 2017, Southwest offers up to 104 departures a day to 41 cities from STL and operates 14 gates

WN's hold on STL is much greater than its hold on AUS, Austin is also a better market for AS to take on compared to STL due to Austin's connections to the west coast. With regards to space isn't the terminal expanding to 33 gates, plus I believe F9 wants to move to the South terminal as well, so I think there is space to have a hub.
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
jplatts
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 8:53 pm

ncflyer wrote:
cloudboy wrote:
ncflyer wrote:
My opinion is there won't be any new > 100 flight hubs in U.S. for at least next 10 years. I think the airlines have learned the hard way that unless a city has something really unique geography wise (SLC and CLT), you've got to be a giant city to support the fixed costs of a hub, a la EWR, ORD, IAH, etc. The fixed costs are covered by O/D traffic not connections. This is why practically every hub in medium sized cities like PIT/CLE/CMH/MEM/MCI/STL/RDU/BNA went the way of the dodo bird. Maybe/maybe I could see Alaska or JetBlue opening up a 75 flight new hub operation in one of those abandoned cities, but that would be it.

As for your guesses, well I suppose BOS may be an interesting one, clearly Delta is comfortable going after smaller airlines like they are doing with SEA, but as for RDU, not a chance--- Delta made it loud and clear when they shrunk CVG and closed MEM their plans for the Southeast USA.


I've still never got clear answer on exactly what makes a hub "cost" more, or what makes a hub "profitable". Obviously you need equipment to handle the additional flights, but that is no different than at another airport that isn't a hub. What am I missing?


That is a GREAT question, probably worth a thread of its own, and I'm not sure I can do justice in writing. In my understanding (and I'm no industry insider) it goes something like this, and it's best explained with a city like Charlotte, which is an old time hub in that it is not a big O/D city like ORD or EWR or DFW. Charlotte has 6 flights per day on AA to LAX as an example, on big planes. Clearly there is nowhere near demand like that originating in CLT. So the planes are filled with mainly connecting passengers. They have all these fixed costs of landing people, processing them, double handling their luggage, taking off, etc., etc. A passenger flying CLT to LAX is so much cheaper to handle than let's say GSO to LAX via CLT, yet often the fares are comparable or if anything it's well understood that hub flyers pay a premium for nonstop service on a carrier that often has a bit of a monopoly (unless the ULCC have cherry picked the route too).

Now obviously a U.S. airline needs hubs to serve the entire country-- no way can GSO to LAX be served nonstop, but if the hubs are redundant, or they don't have a lot of originating traffic, then an airline is adding cost without enhancing it's network. Hubs in big cities are so damn desirable because they are filled up first and foremost with lowest cost to serve, highest fare paying customers first and foremost and the connectors are gravy. I think the ULCC in U.S. have been very effective at cherry picking routes from the major carriers, even in the fortress hubs.


Could Alaska add nonstop service from CLT to SEA, PDX, SFO, and LAX? SLC is the westernmost city to have nonstop service out of CLT on an airline other than AA, and AA is currently the only airline to fly nonstop from CLT to the west coast. Alaska could provide competition on nonstop service between CLT and the west coast.
 
777PHX
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 9:06 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
In AUS as of March 16, 2017, Southwest offers up to 64 departures a day to 27 cities from AUS and operates 6 gates
In STL As of March 16, 2017, Southwest offers up to 104 departures a day to 41 cities from STL and operates 14 gates

WN's hold on STL is much greater than its hold on AUS, Austin is also a better market for AS to take on compared to STL due to Austin's connections to the west coast. With regards to space isn't the terminal expanding to 33 gates, plus I believe F9 wants to move to the South terminal as well, so I think there is space to have a hub.


Not really.

If your logic is, it's far too scary for someone to challenge big bad WN in STL, the same follows with AUS.

WN carried about the same number of pax in 2016 at AUS as AA, DL and UA combined.

At any rate, as pointed out, AUS just doesn't have the space now or anytime in the forseeable future to become a hub.

ElroyJetson wrote:
I could see STL for WN.....that's about it.


You could argue STL is already a "hub" for WN.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Future Hubs: Where could it happen?

Tue May 30, 2017 9:09 pm

jplatts wrote:
ncflyer wrote:
cloudboy wrote:

I've still never got clear answer on exactly what makes a hub "cost" more, or what makes a hub "profitable". Obviously you need equipment to handle the additional flights, but that is no different than at another airport that isn't a hub. What am I missing?


That is a GREAT question, probably worth a thread of its own, and I'm not sure I can do justice in writing. In my understanding (and I'm no industry insider) it goes something like this, and it's best explained with a city like Charlotte, which is an old time hub in that it is not a big O/D city like ORD or EWR or DFW. Charlotte has 6 flights per day on AA to LAX as an example, on big planes. Clearly there is nowhere near demand like that originating in CLT. So the planes are filled with mainly connecting passengers. They have all these fixed costs of landing people, processing them, double handling their luggage, taking off, etc., etc. A passenger flying CLT to LAX is so much cheaper to handle than let's say GSO to LAX via CLT, yet often the fares are comparable or if anything it's well understood that hub flyers pay a premium for nonstop service on a carrier that often has a bit of a monopoly (unless the ULCC have cherry picked the route too).

Now obviously a U.S. airline needs hubs to serve the entire country-- no way can GSO to LAX be served nonstop, but if the hubs are redundant, or they don't have a lot of originating traffic, then an airline is adding cost without enhancing it's network. Hubs in big cities are so damn desirable because they are filled up first and foremost with lowest cost to serve, highest fare paying customers first and foremost and the connectors are gravy. I think the ULCC in U.S. have been very effective at cherry picking routes from the major carriers, even in the fortress hubs.


Could Alaska add nonstop service from CLT to SEA, PDX, SFO, and LAX? SLC is the westernmost city to have nonstop service out of CLT on an airline other than AA, and AA is currently the only airline to fly nonstop from CLT to the west coast. Alaska could provide competition on nonstop service between CLT and the west coast.

AA and AS are in bed with each other in the same way AS and DL we're together a couple of years ago. CLTs best hope for West Coast service not on AA is UA.
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