tealnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Wed Jun 21, 2017 2:16 am

I can see 779/778 as an obvious combo for QF - they are one of the few airlines that really need the extreme range of a 778. But why would NZ go with a super-heavy like the 77X when the A359/35J is available? Either will offer full pax plus a heap of cargo to/from US west coast. And the 359 in the right configuration will be a much cheaper solution for JFK/ORD etc. The 787 is a great plane within its limits but there's not a hint that Boeing are thinking of a MTOW increase, let alone a new wing and gear - they still have a mountain of deferred development and production costs to pay off on the current model line-up. On the numbers it seems to me the A350 has to be front runner to replace 77E/77Ws.
 
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LamboAston
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Wed Jun 21, 2017 2:23 am

tealnz wrote:
I can see 779/778 as an obvious combo for QF - they are one of the few airlines that really need the extreme range of a 778. But why would NZ go with a super-heavy like the 77X when the A359/35J is available? Either will offer full pax plus a heap of cargo to/from US west coast. And the 359 in the right configuration will be a much cheaper solution for JFK/ORD etc. The 787 is a great plane within its limits but there's not a hint that Boeing are thinking of a MTOW increase, let alone a new wing and gear - they still have a mountain of deferred development and production costs to pay off on the current model line-up. On the numbers it seems to me the A350 has to be front runner to replace 77E/77Ws.

Agreed. The main factor for the 778 is the cockpit (and some MX) commonality to the 772/W/789.
AS350, B733/4/7/8, B744/8, B762/3, B77E/L/W, B789, A319, A320, A321, A332, A346, A380, AT73/5/6, Q300, Q400, CR2/7, E190, S340, B1900C/D, E110 (E for epic)
NZ, EK, QF, SQ, UA, US, CO, FZ, FR, U2, BA, VA, VS, MH, EI, EY, LH, EN, NM, TG, GZ
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 7:50 am

http://www.routesonline.com/news/38/air ... -dec-2017/

HND to 772, also must have secured morning slots and earlier evening departure.

Makes sense with the 772 as there is spare capacity. There may now be a little bit of slack in the 789 schedule, they said a while back more KIX so I would say this is where any freed up 789's will go.
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 11:56 pm

From memory the B778 will have around the same number of seats as the B77W. So unless Air NZ was really after the seat count wouldn't it make more sense to just go with the B778 as the B77E and B77W replacement?
 
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sunrisevalley
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Fri Jun 23, 2017 12:36 am

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
From memory the B778 will have around the same number of seats as the B77W. So unless Air NZ was really after the seat count wouldn't it make more sense to just go with the B778 as the B77E and B77W replacement?


You may be right. If the CASK of the 778 at about 315 seats is close to that of the A359 et al this could be a possibility.
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Fri Jun 23, 2017 1:19 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
http://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/273465/air-new-zealand-tokyo-haneda-changes-from-dec-2017/

HND to 772, also must have secured morning slots and earlier evening departure.

Makes sense with the 772 as there is spare capacity. There may now be a little bit of slack in the 789 schedule, they said a while back more KIX so I would say this is where any freed up 789's will go.

Interesting to note this new schedule has the 777 sitting on the ground in Haneda for 16 hours.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Fri Jun 23, 2017 1:56 am

VirginFlyer wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
http://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/273465/air-new-zealand-tokyo-haneda-changes-from-dec-2017/

HND to 772, also must have secured morning slots and earlier evening departure.

Makes sense with the 772 as there is spare capacity. There may now be a little bit of slack in the 789 schedule, they said a while back more KIX so I would say this is where any freed up 789's will go.

Interesting to note this new schedule has the 777 sitting on the ground in Haneda for 16 hours.

V/F


Yep, I'm not to surprised it's going 772 atleast for NZ summer there is a little more slack in that fleet than the 789. HND starts as a 1450 departure ex AKL arrives HND 2300 which is useless for domestic connections, departs 0100 arrives AKL 1540. It will be like QF who park a 744 at HND from 0500/2200 each day they did that schedule with NRT before to.
 
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sunrisevalley
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Fri Jun 23, 2017 1:24 pm

VirginFlyer wrote:
Interesting to note this new schedule has the 777 sitting on the ground in Haneda for 16 hours. V/F


Is this enough rest time for the crew to fly the return leg?
 
Kiwijason
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Fri Jun 23, 2017 6:15 pm

So.... I don't post often but i do appreciate the information and opinions of those who do.

I have a question regarding fares and hope someone here works at or has a knowledge of Air NZ fares.

As an expat Kiwi living in the SF Bay area I like to come back home to NZ for a 2 week vacation in late Feb early March.
I like to book early (around June/July) to get my seat preference and prefer to fly AirNz (Airpoints member since 1994)
Air NZ/United Fare prices this year are on average $500 more than they have been in years past ($1700-$1800 as opposed to $1000-$1300 normally) despite there being 3 extra flight per week during this season with United.
LAX to AKL $1284,same date SFO to AKL $1704. .Sure i can get a return flight to LAX from SFO for under $150 USD but LAX is a sh%*&hole and the transit is a pain.
Hawaiian Air and Qantas offer same date one stop flights (SFO-AKL) for around $1200.
Is there an Algorithm that sets prices or do humans decide?
Are AirNz/United price gouging because they have a Monopoly on direct flights whereas in LAX they have AA direct, in addition to Qantas, Virgin Australia, Fiji and Air Tahiti with multiple one stop so the price is more competitive?
I prefer Air NZ , the cabin staff , food and entertainment is hard to beat and i can have a Speights if i'm lucky.
The 10 seat 777 cabin is a little cramped, if the had a 9 seat across semi premium section with additional legroom I'd pay a 10% premium (hint hint)

Anybody in the know? Company insider? Anyone have access to passenger loads and sold seats for Feb 2018?

Any thoughts guys n gals?
 
ZKOXA
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:19 pm

N830WE, formerly ZK-NCI has left Auckland this morning as NZ6011. Not sure where it's off to, do we know if it's been bought and who by?

ZKOXA
 
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LamboAston
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:43 pm

Is N730WE still in ASP? N830WE could be going there.
AS350, B733/4/7/8, B744/8, B762/3, B77E/L/W, B789, A319, A320, A321, A332, A346, A380, AT73/5/6, Q300, Q400, CR2/7, E190, S340, B1900C/D, E110 (E for epic)
NZ, EK, QF, SQ, UA, US, CO, FZ, FR, U2, BA, VA, VS, MH, EI, EY, LH, EN, NM, TG, GZ
 
Qantas16
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:20 am

LamboAston wrote:
Is N730WE still in ASP? N830WE could be going there.


It is going to ASP

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/ANZ6011
 
decry
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:29 am

Re the 3 NZ 767's a company in the US has purchased them... https://www.30wjets.com/available-aircraft
 
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LamboAston
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Sat Jun 24, 2017 7:29 am

decry wrote:
Re the 3 NZ 767's a company in the US has purchased them... https://www.30wjets.com/available-aircraft

We have known that for months. We don't know who they are going to after.
AS350, B733/4/7/8, B744/8, B762/3, B77E/L/W, B789, A319, A320, A321, A332, A346, A380, AT73/5/6, Q300, Q400, CR2/7, E190, S340, B1900C/D, E110 (E for epic)
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decry
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Sat Jun 24, 2017 8:41 am

LamboAston wrote:
decry wrote:
Re the 3 NZ 767's a company in the US has purchased them... https://www.30wjets.com/available-aircraft

We have known that for months. We don't know who they are going to after.


lol yeah? Well for those not following the story for "months" i'm sure that small piece of well known information is appreciated. ;)
 
ZKOXA
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Sun Jun 25, 2017 5:54 am

VH-XZB made an appearance today in NZ for what I believe to be the first time with the new inflight wifi. What happens in regard to the wifi Qantas installed during the hop over the ditch?

ZKOXA
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Sun Jun 25, 2017 6:13 am

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news ... d=11881074

Another article about AA service to AKL. There have been a few but for anyone who wants a read.

ZKOXA wrote:
VH-XZB made an appearance today in NZ for what I believe to be the first time with the new inflight wifi. What happens in regard to the wifi Qantas installed during the hop over the ditch?

ZKOXA


They stated domestic 737's and A330's to be refitted first, can it work outside Australia yet? And is it still just the single 738 fitted? It quite likely was just in operative?!
 
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LamboAston
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Sun Jun 25, 2017 7:38 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11881074

Another article about AA service to AKL. There have been a few but for anyone who wants a read.

ZKOXA wrote:
VH-XZB made an appearance today in NZ for what I believe to be the first time with the new inflight wifi. What happens in regard to the wifi Qantas installed during the hop over the ditch?

ZKOXA


They stated domestic 737's and A330's to be refitted first, can it work outside Australia yet? And is it still just the single 738 fitted? It quite likely was just in operative?!

There are two now.
AS350, B733/4/7/8, B744/8, B762/3, B77E/L/W, B789, A319, A320, A321, A332, A346, A380, AT73/5/6, Q300, Q400, CR2/7, E190, S340, B1900C/D, E110 (E for epic)
NZ, EK, QF, SQ, UA, US, CO, FZ, FR, U2, BA, VA, VS, MH, EI, EY, LH, EN, NM, TG, GZ
 
777ER
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Sun Jun 25, 2017 11:11 pm

ZKOXA wrote:
VH-XZB made an appearance today in NZ for what I believe to be the first time with the new inflight wifi. What happens in regard to the wifi Qantas installed during the hop over the ditch?

ZKOXA

WLG has been getting the wifi test B738 aircraft a fair bit on MEL services this year
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Flown: 1900D,S340,Q300,AT72-5/6,DC3,CR2/7,E145,E70/75/90,A319/20/21,A332/3,A359,A380,F100,B717,B733/4/8/9,B742/4,B752/3,B763,B772/3, B789
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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 26, 2017 12:07 am

Kiwijason wrote:
So.... I don't post often but i do appreciate the information and opinions of those who do.

I have a question regarding fares and hope someone here works at or has a knowledge of Air NZ fares.

As an expat Kiwi living in the SF Bay area I like to come back home to NZ for a 2 week vacation in late Feb early March.
I like to book early (around June/July) to get my seat preference and prefer to fly AirNz (Airpoints member since 1994)
Air NZ/United Fare prices this year are on average $500 more than they have been in years past ($1700-$1800 as opposed to $1000-$1300 normally) despite there being 3 extra flight per week during this season with United.
LAX to AKL $1284,same date SFO to AKL $1704. .Sure i can get a return flight to LAX from SFO for under $150 USD but LAX is a sh%*&hole and the transit is a pain.
Hawaiian Air and Qantas offer same date one stop flights (SFO-AKL) for around $1200.
Is there an Algorithm that sets prices or do humans decide?
Are AirNz/United price gouging because they have a Monopoly on direct flights whereas in LAX they have AA direct, in addition to Qantas, Virgin Australia, Fiji and Air Tahiti with multiple one stop so the price is more competitive?
I prefer Air NZ , the cabin staff , food and entertainment is hard to beat and i can have a Speights if i'm lucky.
The 10 seat 777 cabin is a little cramped, if the had a 9 seat across semi premium section with additional legroom I'd pay a 10% premium (hint hint)

Anybody in the know? Company insider? Anyone have access to passenger loads and sold seats for Feb 2018?

Any thoughts guys n gals?

Hi Jason, last year UA and AA were trying to establish themselves in the market down here and there was a bit of a price war going on in the Oz market. This has now died down and all carriers are getting good load factors so less need to discount. In the SFO market yes it is likely that NZ and UA working together has kept that price up (despite capacity being more than double daily over the NZL summer).
All done by computer modelling now.

Have you been to LAX lately? TBIT is a huge improvement and could even say it is better than SFO (except for security lines). Arrivals into SFO can be very long and LAX with the new electronic gates can be quite quick and painless.

10 across 777 vs 9 across 787 same-same although the 787 is quieter and has better cabin humidity.
Overall NZ is better than UA service however the UA space plus seats are a great option to get a bit of legroom for not much more money. UA does better breakfast in economy (french toast with spiced apple ex-SFO was actually quite tasty - all airlines in economy are shit at breakfast usually IMHO) NZ has better drinks and food otherwise.
59 types. 42 countries. 24 airlines.
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 26, 2017 12:14 am

Have heard through the grapevine that NZ has approval to operate the 789 to IAH and that it will shortly be changing over to this daily year round.
YVR will also be going to 789 daily year round however during the peak mid-Dec to mid-Feb will likely be 77E/77W or more than daily 789.
This is all being facilitated by the new premium configured 3x 789 that are arriving soon.

Is a good move to bump up that frequency as this helps with premium traffic and of course helps with crew accommodation costs etc.

This does of course free up 77E so the question will be where do they go?
59 types. 42 countries. 24 airlines.
 
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sunrisevalley
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 26, 2017 12:26 am

Zkpilot wrote:
Have heard through the grapevine that NZ has approval to operate the 789 to IAH and that it will shortly be changing over to this daily year round.VR will also be going to 789 daily year round however during the peak mid-Dec to mid-Feb will likely be 77E/77W or more than daily 789.
This is all being facilitated by the new premium configured 3x 789 that are arriving soon.Is a good move to bump up that frequency as this helps with premium traffic and of course helps with crew accommodation costs etc.This does of course free up 77E so the question will be where do they go?

There are only two 789's arriving in October/ November both destined for IAH as I understand it. There will be two more a year later. I will go out on a limb and predict they will start the ORD service.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:49 am

Zkpilot wrote:
Have heard through the grapevine that NZ has approval to operate the 789 to IAH and that it will shortly be changing over to this daily year round.
YVR will also be going to 789 daily year round however during the peak mid-Dec to mid-Feb will likely be 77E/77W or more than daily 789.
This is all being facilitated by the new premium configured 3x 789 that are arriving soon.

Is a good move to bump up that frequency as this helps with premium traffic and of course helps with crew accommodation costs etc.

This does of course free up 77E so the question will be where do they go?


IAH was announced a while back starts DEC. I guess it depends on the config of 789's to YVR as to when it starts, 2 this year only that cover IAH which are more premium, YVR likely wouldn't start until winter schedules with a leisure config if they could free 2 up to allow daily.

772's off IAH, HND gets them from DEC with a schedule change to arrive HND early morning depart late evening due slots, good for connections ex HND. Not for utilisation but you can't always have it both ways. That will use 1 772 for 3 weekly, the second may cover shorthaul afternoon SYD/MEL which return to late to go anywhere usually.

Few more changes to come I think, they hinted at more KIX aswellwhich could be where the freed up HND 789 goes, also extra PVG from last year isn't loaded, maybe slot issue they were poorly timed last year due slots.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 26, 2017 2:26 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
. . . also extra PVG from last year isn't loaded, maybe slot issue they were poorly timed last year due slots.

Last year's "extra" PVG services were only run for about 6 weeks centred on Chinese New Year IIRC, whereas the previous year the season was longer. Perhaps the increased competition on China is starting to bite, and there's no need for additional services? Having said that, it's been clearly stated by NZ that they would like to operate PVG 2x daily.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
downdata
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 26, 2017 4:05 am

So.... where are the 779s?
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:13 am

downdata wrote:
So.... where are the 779s?

My understanding was that the decision on widebody orders was further down the road (at least the second half of this year, if not later), and the talk of a 777-9 order at Paris was somewhere between wishful thinking and an outright furphy.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
Mr AirNZ
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 26, 2017 7:50 am

sunrisevalley wrote:
VirginFlyer wrote:
Interesting to note this new schedule has the 777 sitting on the ground in Haneda for 16 hours. V/F


Is this enough rest time for the crew to fly the return leg?

Contractually, neither the Flight Deck or Cabin crew would be able to operate the return service. It would have to be a "fresh" crew.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 26, 2017 8:05 am

Kiwijason wrote:
So.... I don't post often but i do appreciate the information and opinions of those who do.

I have a question regarding fares and hope someone here works at or has a knowledge of Air NZ fares.

As an expat Kiwi living in the SF Bay area I like to come back home to NZ for a 2 week vacation in late Feb early March.
I like to book early (around June/July) to get my seat preference and prefer to fly AirNz (Airpoints member since 1994)
Air NZ/United Fare prices this year are on average $500 more than they have been in years past ($1700-$1800 as opposed to $1000-$1300 normally) despite there being 3 extra flight per week during this season with United.
LAX to AKL $1284,same date SFO to AKL $1704. .Sure i can get a return flight to LAX from SFO for under $150 USD but LAX is a sh%*&hole and the transit is a pain.
Hawaiian Air and Qantas offer same date one stop flights (SFO-AKL) for around $1200.
Is there an Algorithm that sets prices or do humans decide?
Are AirNz/United price gouging because they have a Monopoly on direct flights whereas in LAX they have AA direct, in addition to Qantas, Virgin Australia, Fiji and Air Tahiti with multiple one stop so the price is more competitive?
I prefer Air NZ , the cabin staff , food and entertainment is hard to beat and i can have a Speights if i'm lucky.
The 10 seat 777 cabin is a little cramped, if the had a 9 seat across semi premium section with additional legroom I'd pay a 10% premium (hint hint)

Anybody in the know? Company insider? Anyone have access to passenger loads and sold seats for Feb 2018?

Any thoughts guys n gals?


Hi Jason, you've kind of answered your own question to an extend. A transit via LAX or NHL is an outright pain so is SYD therefore you end up paying a premium to go direct on the limited seats which the airline seem to have no trouble selling. It's a case of supply and demand on the direct flight if you want to keep as simply as we can.

If you're not family with airfare structure here is the absolute basics of it. An airline will publish a set of fares between two points and will add the applicable routing, in your case SFO-AKL direct or SFO-LAX-AKL, SFO-HNL-AKL etc etc. Each fare type is indicated by a primary booking class A-Z in no particular order of value. A full fare which you'll never hopefully pay if Y class. The fares may be seasonal, temporary (sales) or year round.

They then have a separate team who monitor and analyse (with the aid of technology) forward bookings, global trends, historic loads/yields etc then allocate of booking classes on each flight.

So, there may be a airfare for example valued at $1,100 and sold in T class. SFO-AKL direct being popular because of it's convenience that you mentioned may have limited or no T class allocated to it. LAX-AKL given it has double daily will likely have more T class so the changes of picking the $1,100 airfare are much higher. If you then search SFO-AKL direct only you'll see the price being much higher.

If the direct isn't selling as well as expected you'll see more booking classes with those lower fares attached to them available.

I'm not sure how much you already know about airfares so hopefully I've not been telling you to suck eggs. Don't look at how full a flight is to determine how well it sells, it could be full of staff/industry workers or pax on very cheap flights. There can sometimes even be disrupted pax from other flights on board.

To help understand it, consider the fares available start at the full Y class price. I'm not at work so can't see but SFO-AKL is probably $3,000+. You are then simply buying the best discounted fare available either direct or via somewhere were the airline "has to" sell the seat at what they think will earn them the most money ("yeild") but ensure it's sale.

In it's own way it's a unique type of auction in a sense. But it's not a lot different to hotels rooms. Take a look at the exact same hotel room in Las Vegas on a Friday/Saturday night vs during the week as an example.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 26, 2017 8:38 am

DavidByrne wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
. . . also extra PVG from last year isn't loaded, maybe slot issue they were poorly timed last year due slots.

Last year's "extra" PVG services were only run for about 6 weeks centred on Chinese New Year IIRC, whereas the previous year the season was longer. Perhaps the increased competition on China is starting to bite, and there's no need for additional services? Having said that, it's been clearly stated by NZ that they would like to operate PVG 2x daily.


Last year 2016/17 NW was the first time NZ had run extra PVG services, you are right in that I'm sure the season was shorter than planned, pretty sure it started in JAN but ran through to mid late March originally was meant to start early DEC I think it was, the slots were terrible original plan was
AKL 1015 PVG 1730
PVG 2355 AKL 1620

Actual was
AKL 1755 PVG 0110
PVG 0245 AKL 1910

The plan is /was 2 daily with the second flight as above connecting to EZE. Could also be competition like you say but I'd say if they can get any slots they will use them for now?

VirginFlyer wrote:
downdata wrote:
So.... where are the 779s?

My understanding was that the decision on widebody orders was further down the road (at least the second half of this year, if not later), and the talk of a 777-9 order at Paris was somewhere between wishful thinking and an outright furphy.

V/F


Agreed, always nice to be surprised but like you say that is how read it originally, it seemed to be 1 poster whom I don't no where he got his info.
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 26, 2017 10:51 am

downdata wrote:
So.... where are the 779s?

Likely all booked up until about 2024 with EK/LH orders... I don't see them being possible for NZ in any numbers for a long time. The order will go to whoever can provide aeroplanes closest to when NZ wants them at the best price and overall fleet incentive. I am certain that the negotiations are not yet complete with both Airbus and Boeing, so until the order comes it could still go either way if the other offers a "one-up" incentive
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
Kiwijason
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 26, 2017 2:21 pm

Hiya NZ6

Thank you for the detailed and informative response.
I have done some further digging as to how full the flights are etc. Economy is showing at less that 8% full by my calculation.
Sure a lack of supply and limited demand should drive prices higher but in this case i believe it's artificially high due to collusion between United and Air NZ. Is it really a lack of supply when United are increasing from 7 flights to 10 flights per week compared to the same time last year?
Neither United nor AirNZ give a SFO-LAX-AKL return as a booking option on their websites. You can book this separately and save $600 USD so they're deliberately steering you away from there to the $2000 option.
Historically on the SFO to AKL route i have never paid more than $1400 and have paid as low as $800 2 years ago with Qantas.
I'll probably fly Hawaiian this year for $1200 although outbound is an entire day flight.
Or maybe I'll fly Southwest OAK to LAX then AirNZ .
Living in the SF bay area I have developed a natural dislike for SoCal and LA in general.

Again thanks to you and the other responders to my query.

I'll keep an eye on the price , hopefully it will drop if others like I baulk at the prices.

*Edit*
I just went to the air NZ website and tried booking LAX to AKL.
It gives an option to fly LAX-SFO-AKL-SFO-LAX for $400 cheaper that SFO to AKL on the exact same date alone.
Someone please explain that something isn't rotten with that because this certainly isn't Denmark ....


NZ6 wrote:
Kiwijason wrote:
So.... I don't post often but i do appreciate the information and opinions of those who do.

I have a question regarding fares and hope someone here works at or has a knowledge of Air NZ fares.

As an expat Kiwi living in the SF Bay area I like to come back home to NZ for a 2 week vacation in late Feb early March.
I like to book early (around June/July) to get my seat preference and prefer to fly AirNz (Airpoints member since 1994)
Air NZ/United Fare prices this year are on average $500 more than they have been in years past ($1700-$1800 as opposed to $1000-$1300 normally) despite there being 3 extra flight per week during this season with United.
LAX to AKL $1284,same date SFO to AKL $1704. .Sure i can get a return flight to LAX from SFO for under $150 USD but LAX is a sh%*&hole and the transit is a pain.
Hawaiian Air and Qantas offer same date one stop flights (SFO-AKL) for around $1200.
Is there an Algorithm that sets prices or do humans decide?
Are AirNz/United price gouging because they have a Monopoly on direct flights whereas in LAX they have AA direct, in addition to Qantas, Virgin Australia, Fiji and Air Tahiti with multiple one stop so the price is more competitive?
I prefer Air NZ , the cabin staff , food and entertainment is hard to beat and i can have a Speights if i'm lucky.
The 10 seat 777 cabin is a little cramped, if the had a 9 seat across semi premium section with additional legroom I'd pay a 10% premium (hint hint)

Anybody in the know? Company insider? Anyone have access to passenger loads and sold seats for Feb 2018?

Any thoughts guys n gals?


Hi Jason, you've kind of answered your own question to an extend. A transit via LAX or NHL is an outright pain so is SYD therefore you end up paying a premium to go direct on the limited seats which the airline seem to have no trouble selling. It's a case of supply and demand on the direct flight if you want to keep as simply as we can.

If you're not family with airfare structure here is the absolute basics of it. An airline will publish a set of fares between two points and will add the applicable routing, in your case SFO-AKL direct or SFO-LAX-AKL, SFO-HNL-AKL etc etc. Each fare type is indicated by a primary booking class A-Z in no particular order of value. A full fare which you'll never hopefully pay if Y class. The fares may be seasonal, temporary (sales) or year round.

They then have a separate team who monitor and analyse (with the aid of technology) forward bookings, global trends, historic loads/yields etc then allocate of booking classes on each flight.

So, there may be a airfare for example valued at $1,100 and sold in T class. SFO-AKL direct being popular because of it's convenience that you mentioned may have limited or no T class allocated to it. LAX-AKL given it has double daily will likely have more T class so the changes of picking the $1,100 airfare are much higher. If you then search SFO-AKL direct only you'll see the price being much higher.

If the direct isn't selling as well as expected you'll see more booking classes with those lower fares attached to them available.

I'm not sure how much you already know about airfares so hopefully I've not been telling you to suck eggs. Don't look at how full a flight is to determine how well it sells, it could be full of staff/industry workers or pax on very cheap flights. There can sometimes even be disrupted pax from other flights on board.

To help understand it, consider the fares available start at the full Y class price. I'm not at work so can't see but SFO-AKL is probably $3,000+. You are then simply buying the best discounted fare available either direct or via somewhere were the airline "has to" sell the seat at what they think will earn them the most money ("yeild") but ensure it's sale.

In it's own way it's a unique type of auction in a sense. But it's not a lot different to hotels rooms. Take a look at the exact same hotel room in Las Vegas on a Friday/Saturday night vs during the week as an example.
 
ZKSUJ
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 27, 2017 6:36 am

So hopefully we see the EK 744F back here soon
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 27, 2017 6:42 am

ZKSUJ wrote:
So hopefully we see the EK 744F back here soon

Context? Are you saying you want to see them, or you're aware of the possibility they will be coming?

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 27, 2017 7:13 am

VirginFlyer wrote:
ZKSUJ wrote:
So hopefully we see the EK 744F back here soon

Context? Are you saying you want to see them, or you're aware of the possibility they will be coming?

V/F


Hint, something to do with a certain boat. It left AKL on an EK 744F.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 27, 2017 7:18 am

http://www.routesonline.com/news/38/air ... -increase/

And there it is, pretty average slots again slightly earlier than last year. Just a 6 week or so period. I'm sure last year was slightly longer?
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 27, 2017 8:25 am

http://www.routesonline.com/news/38/air ... -oct-2017/

Some pretty reasonable and short notice JQ reductions for Winter! Pretty short noticed for it being School Hoildays in July.

Auckland – New Plymouth Reduce from 20* to 9 weekly (JQ365/364 operating on weekends, instead of daily; JQ367/366 operating on Day 6, instead of daily)
Auckland – Palmerston North Reduce from 27* to 22 weekly (JQ385/386 operating on weekends, instead of daily)
Wellington – Nelson eff 24JUL17 Reduce from 3* to 2 daily (JQ392/393 cancelled)


Maybe they should just give up?
 
A330NZ
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 27, 2017 12:16 pm

zkncj wrote:
http://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/273519/jetstar-new-zealand-regional-reductions-july-oct-2017/

Some pretty reasonable and short notice JQ reductions for Winter! Pretty short noticed for it being School Hoildays in July.

Auckland – New Plymouth Reduce from 20* to 9 weekly (JQ365/364 operating on weekends, instead of daily; JQ367/366 operating on Day 6, instead of daily)
Auckland – Palmerston North Reduce from 27* to 22 weekly (JQ385/386 operating on weekends, instead of daily)
Wellington – Nelson eff 24JUL17 Reduce from 3* to 2 daily (JQ392/393 cancelled)


Maybe they should just give up?


Honestly not surprised. Being a student in Palmy with family in Nelson, I frequent JQ's WLG-NSN-WLG services rather frequently, and noted on my last journey there were fewer than 20 passengers onboard
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 27, 2017 12:28 pm

JQ regularly have their cheapest seats available almost up until day of departure. That's a sign their load factors are either very light or their yields horrifically low. They came in with a hiss and a roar but haven't done anything since.. Make no mistake this is a seasonal adjustment, because demand to New Zealand is so light right now, but it is evidently much more difficult than they thought.
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 27, 2017 12:56 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
VirginFlyer wrote:
ZKSUJ wrote:
So hopefully we see the EK 744F back here soon

Context? Are you saying you want to see them, or you're aware of the possibility they will be coming?

V/F


Hint, something to do with a certain boat. It left AKL on an EK 744F.

Haha of course, you'd think having gotten up so many times early in the morning to watch the thing, I'd have remembered who Team New Zealand's title sponsor was. Somehow though, it won't seem quite the same as another crew walking down the steps off a white, green and blue 767...

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
tealnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 27, 2017 8:04 pm

sunrisevalley wrote:
There are only two 789's arriving in October/ November both destined for IAH as I understand it. There will be two more a year later. I will go out on a limb and predict they will start the ORD service.

UA are certainly using their 789s at similar ranges (SFO-SIN and LAX-MEL). The question really is whether NZ's business model can sustain a pax-only service (with significant seasonal blocking of seats - UA from memory are configured for 20 fewer pax than the new NZ layout). If they can fill the front of the plane maybe ORD is a starter.

Meantime the new weights for the A359 and A35K https://leehamnews.com/2017/06/27/airbus-augments-a350-1000-capability/ are going to make things more interesting for NZ's 77E/77W replacement selection next year. NZ has denser configurations than some of its main competitors as well as carrying big freight loads on US west coast routes. The combination of OEW much lighter than the 77X and the increases in MZFW and MTOW have to make the A359/K highly competitive – especially if NZ want to launch routes such as JFK and ORD.
 
a7ala
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 27, 2017 9:47 pm

A330NZ wrote:
zkncj wrote:
http://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/273519/jetstar-new-zealand-regional-reductions-july-oct-2017/

Honestly not surprised. Being a student in Palmy with family in Nelson, I frequent JQ's WLG-NSN-WLG services rather frequently, and noted on my last journey there were fewer than 20 passengers onboard


JQ operate two morning flights NSN-WLG-NSN (and an afternoon) 45mins apart and its ones of these that are being reduced - not surprising really given the wingtip flying. Will be interesting to see what they do with the aircraft time - hopefully it will be used to improve reliability.
 
NPL8800
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 27, 2017 10:10 pm

I think suggesting that JQ should just pull out is a tad melodramatic, we are now 18 months into their operations and I have no doubt they have plenty of data that relates to the dynamics of each market. Frankly I feel that NPE and NSN will always be the 2 stronger destinations out of the 4, NPE due to population and NSN due to its isolation/lack of timely alternative northbound travel options, they also have a strong tourism market over the summer months. NPE, NPL and PMR all have northbound surface options (car, bus and train) that continue to be utilized strongly, NSN doesn't have this which likely pushes more people onto air travel. Whilst PMR has 3 tertiary institutions and a healthy student population which one would believe would be attracted to these services, the reality is how many of these students actually originate from/need to travel via AKL? From my time there a sizable portion of the students due to the nature of the courses on offer came from the central/lower north island (driving distance) or the south island (fly direct to CHC, or drive/bus/train to WLG and fly from there).

In regards to NPL specifically, I feel that JQ have somewhat hindered their desirability by not offering the full schedule they had planned from the beginning. We never got the midday flight which would have evened out the schedule and increased flexibility for both business and leisure passengers, improve the ability to connect to QF and other JQ intl flights and also self connect to other airlines. Instead we have the early morning out bound which is fine, but then there is an almost 10 hour gap until the next service around 4pm, the third flight is approximately 2 hours later. I think the situation could be quite different performance wise had they chosen to keep the midday service and instead cut the 4pm (if they only wanted the 3 daily). The other main issue is that NPL doesn't have the JQ aircraft based there over night which requires the 6am flight from AKL (admittedly NZ operates a service 30 minutes later) which isn't the greatest, particularly since there seems to be a bit of an aversion to early morning flights in this country.

These seasonal cuts seem like the perfect opportunity to re-evaluate the services and come back in the summer potentially with a new/revised schedule, whether this happens or not is anyone's guess but would seem like a missed opportunity if they didn't.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Wed Jun 28, 2017 2:05 am

Hi Again,

Like I said, that was the absolute basics of it. I'll explain one more thing which may help further and it's where it starts to get more complex.

Analysts monitor markets such as USA to NZ, USA to Australia etc and sub-markets with SFO-AKL, LAX-AKL etc.

A market, flight or time of year will also hold a historical booking curve. They'll know how the flight should be selling given the number of days till departure. -180 days as we are now. for example. They won't panic now is it's inline with historical sales patterns, if they fall behind they'll put a sale out and catch up. But given the time of year you've spoken about they'll push for more yield as there's never any shortage of PAX.

Right, the complex part.

The systems they use considers your point of sale (USA) and origin and destination of your overall journey. So looking at SFO-AKL, they'll offer a particular booking class. Looking at LAX-AKL they may offer you another AND they may offer that via SFO cheaper than the SFO-AKL direct. It's not designed to mess with you and work like this as such but it's looking at your overall journey.

I can explain the purpose of this if you would like. Just be aware the way booking classes are allocated is dynamic.

Back to your scenario.

You'll most likely be seeing LAX as cheaper as AA operates as a direct competitor and you also have QF, HA, FJ, TN and VA offering 1 stop connections therefore supply/demand says LAX-AKL market has more seats available and the price as a result if cheaper.

If you want to see the fares available and can't access a GDS - try this site.
http://www.airnztravelagent.com/travel-tools/fares


Kiwijason wrote:
Hiya NZ6

Thank you for the detailed and informative response.
I have done some further digging as to how full the flights are etc. Economy is showing at less that 8% full by my calculation.
Sure a lack of supply and limited demand should drive prices higher but in this case i believe it's artificially high due to collusion between United and Air NZ. Is it really a lack of supply when United are increasing from 7 flights to 10 flights per week compared to the same time last year?
Neither United nor AirNZ give a SFO-LAX-AKL return as a booking option on their websites. You can book this separately and save $600 USD so they're deliberately steering you away from there to the $2000 option.
Historically on the SFO to AKL route i have never paid more than $1400 and have paid as low as $800 2 years ago with Qantas.
I'll probably fly Hawaiian this year for $1200 although outbound is an entire day flight.
Or maybe I'll fly Southwest OAK to LAX then AirNZ .
Living in the SF bay area I have developed a natural dislike for SoCal and LA in general.

Again thanks to you and the other responders to my query.

I'll keep an eye on the price , hopefully it will drop if others like I baulk at the prices.

*Edit*
I just went to the air NZ website and tried booking LAX to AKL.
It gives an option to fly LAX-SFO-AKL-SFO-LAX for $400 cheaper that SFO to AKL on the exact same date alone.
Someone please explain that something isn't rotten with that because this certainly isn't Denmark ....

 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Wed Jun 28, 2017 5:38 am

https://centreforaviation.com/insights/ ... ity-352550

I'm not a subscriber so can't read the whole article.

I can't see QF or probably anyone else doing AKL-NYC other than possibly NZ.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Wed Jun 28, 2017 7:05 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
https://centreforaviation.com/insights/analysis/air-new-zealand-plans-widebody-order-for-new-long-haul-flights-new-york-is-a-priority-352550

I'm not a subscriber so can't read the whole article.

I can't see QF or probably anyone else doing AKL-NYC other than possibly NZ.


I'm really interested to see how this goes. An announcement is due late this year but I'd expect it to be mid next year at the earliest.

I know, NZ is looking at ULH (Ultra Long Haul) and has it's eyes set on the East Coast of the USA. The 787 was expected to deliver that but has failed. Will Boeing come in with the 77X or will NZ switch to A350.

Begs the question, any deliveries will be 2020+ Towards the end of the 772 replacement it'll be 2024+ the 787 will be turning 9+.

I have a sneaky suspicion Airbus may try sell 8-13 A350 to replace 772/77W with options to replace 16 787's up to 2030. Making NZ Airbus.

Really depends how the 77X shapes up
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Wed Jun 28, 2017 7:13 am

The 787 has failed to do AKL-East coast US? It's being used on some pretty long sectors by some with PER-LHR QF and LAX-SIN UA to start.

The A350 is very good but surely Boeing have something up their sleeve with the 787?

There was 1 person who thought NZ would order 779's at Paris, no idea what they do or where they heard that. Boeing is expensive but they would probably do anything to sell a few more 777X's to even a smaller carrier like NZ.

Airbus did win back in 2002 with the A320 it seemed like at the 11th hour, seems to have been a good decision. Will they do the same here? I'd still back some sort of 787 with possibly some 77X's in there.
 
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LamboAston
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Wed Jun 28, 2017 7:16 am

NZ6 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
https://centreforaviation.com/insights/analysis/air-new-zealand-plans-widebody-order-for-new-long-haul-flights-new-york-is-a-priority-352550

I'm not a subscriber so can't read the whole article.

I can't see QF or probably anyone else doing AKL-NYC other than possibly NZ.


I'm really interested to see how this goes. An announcement is due late this year but I'd expect it to be mid next year at the earliest.

I know, NZ is looking at ULH (Ultra Long Haul) and has it's eyes set on the East Coast of the USA. The 787 was expected to deliver that but has failed. Will Boeing come in with the 77X or will NZ switch to A350.

Begs the question, any deliveries will be 2020+ Towards the end of the 772 replacement it'll be 2024+ the 787 will be turning 9+.

I have a sneaky suspicion Airbus may try sell 8-13 A350 to replace 772/77W with options to replace 16 787's up to 2030. Making NZ Airbus.

Really depends how the 77X shapes up

I personally am a Boeing fan, but would prefer for NZ to get the A350, due to the much better economy hard product in a standard config (wide seats 9 abreast). They are also far quieter than the current 777s, and probably quieter than the 77X due to its thin side walls.
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afterburner33
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Wed Jun 28, 2017 7:25 am

VirginFlyer wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
VirginFlyer wrote:
Context? Are you saying you want to see them, or you're aware of the possibility they will be coming?

V/F


Hint, something to do with a certain boat. It left AKL on an EK 744F.

Haha of course, you'd think having gotten up so many times early in the morning to watch the thing, I'd have remembered who Team New Zealand's title sponsor was. Somehow though, it won't seem quite the same as another crew walking down the steps off a white, green and blue 767...

V/F


Great memory that.

Apparently the AC50 is coming back to Auckland via cargo ship. Whereas the team will probably be coming back on EK448 next week - that would be a fun flight to be on.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/ar ... d=11882960
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Wed Jun 28, 2017 9:00 am

LamboAston wrote:

Really depends how the 77X shapes up

I personally am a Boeing fan, but would prefer for NZ to get the A350, due to the much better economy hard product in a standard config (wide seats 9 abreast). They are also far quieter than the current 777s, and probably quieter than the 77X due to its thin side walls.[/quote]

Until NZ works out how to make the A350 3-4-3, remember those days when the 77E was 3-3-3?
 
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77west
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2017

Wed Jun 28, 2017 9:32 am

zkncj wrote:
LamboAston wrote:

Really depends how the 77X shapes up

I personally am a Boeing fan, but would prefer for NZ to get the A350, due to the much better economy hard product in a standard config (wide seats 9 abreast). They are also far quieter than the current 777s, and probably quieter than the 77X due to its thin side walls.


Until NZ works out how to make the A350 3-4-3, remember those days when the 77E was 3-3-3?[/quote]

God help us all if they some how make the A350 3-4-3. The 777 is the limit, they can't fit in 10-abreast in an even slimmer fuselage. I don't mind a 777 at 3-4-3, but I am 70kg and 5"11, I can see how a bigger guy could suffer quite badly. An A350 at 3-4-3 I would not fly unless up front somewhere (flight deck included :) )

I think Airbus has sized the A350 where 3-4-3 is just not feasible apart from the likes of Air Asia X who can get away with 9-abreast on A330/A340.
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