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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:55 pm

Qantas59 wrote:
Does anyone know what the respective two letter airline codes for Ansett Airways and Australian National Airways were prior to the 1957 merge?
Cheers.


Were airline codes in existence in 1957?
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 19, 2017 12:15 am

smi0006 wrote:
log0008 wrote:
Thought this may interest some
https://www.oag.com/blog/topic/asias-hub

Recent reporting by OAG shows that Australia-India is the largest connection through SIN with 1.13 million bookings in 2016 and the 3rd largest through KUL with 450,000 bookings connecting via KUL for Australia-India.

Considering that BKK is yet to come and that some would connect through HKG (Not top 20) you could say almost 2 million passengers are connecting through the SE Asian hubs between Australia and India. Surely there must be a need for more direct services?


Be interesting to see if 9W would start AU? Mumbai or better yet Hyderabad would seem better connecting points than AI and DEL which over fly much of the country. Maybe starting SYD? UL ex-MEL will be able to capture some of the market for India if they time their connections right. Although the Sri lank market itself will be significant ex-MEL.

A 12hr route full of low fare paying pax without subsidies doesn't sound like a recipe for success.

Unfortunately flying to/from BOM also overfly the majority part of the country if you fly from Australia. Given the majority group of Indians are low-fare chasers (I know many of them won't even hesitate to do a 4hr detour via DXB if the fare is cheaper), I'm not sure how a route like BOM-SYD/MEL would that succeed without enough premium feed from at least one end.

If we're really talking about connecting points in India, I personally think CCU or HYD might be better suited to the role than either DEL or BOM.
 
sq256
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:50 am

log0008 wrote:

Personally, I would love to see 9W launch MEL & SYD from BOM - split into maybe 3x weekly each. If you look at the India side (http://www.tourism.australia.com/docume ... ull-V5.pdf) the southern half of India dominate tourist flows. With the state of Maharashtra (Mumbai) being the number one source. Currently, 87% of Indian-Australia traffic fly's indirect (not including those connecting via Delhi) and is growing at 15% YOY, that has to be a massive opportunity. To put it into perspective on an average day 3000 people connect through Singapore to India each day (1.1 Million/365), enough for 5 77W flights each way!


Without looking at the statistics, the general assumption is that the majority of the Aus-India traffic are very low yielding (e.g. budget fare travellers), and thus more non-stop flights wouldn't work without either significant government subsidies (e.g Air India) and/or the premium traffic to support further Aus-India non-stops.

Perhaps a long haul LCC e.g Jetstar may be able to make Aus-India (non-stop or even 1-stop) work with the low yielding pax should they decide to get more 787s?
 
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eta unknown
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:38 am

I believe MEL Airport is in talks with 9W about launching MEL-BOM when the 787-9's are delivered.
 
qf71
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:17 am

At the Paris Air Show is there any chance that we will see an order from QF for the B777X and to firm up their 15 B787 options?
Especially as forward booking for PER-LHR have been extremely strong and QF have stated that they desire to fly SYD-LHR in the near future.

8 B787-9 is only enough for the routes that QF have hinted or formally announced at which are;

BNE-LAX-JFK (2.0) - Not Yet Announced, yet strongly hinted and the lounge at BNE has just been refurbished.
MEL-PER-LHR (2.5) - Announced. Will allow for yield improvement to LHR and allow QF to provide the most competitive one stop option to Europe with PER-HUB
MEL-LAX (1.5) - announced, will take overflow pax from BNE-LAX and allow better connections to LAX from regional Australia
PER-CDG (2.0) - Strongly hinted by QF. Will mark a return to mainland Europe following the 2013 suspension of SIN-FRA. will also allow an alternative entry into Europe other than LHR and will mean that QF even though they have dropped MEL-DXB-LHR are maintaining their existing capacity in the Australia - Europe Market. Yet will increase destinations and frequencies offered with an offering that will allow them to have a yield advantage over their competitors.

The two A380s that are displaced from MEL-DXB to go to MEL-HKG and SYD-HKG. Both will be daily and will allow for the retirement of 2 B747-400s. 2 B747-400s will also be retired with BNE-LAX-JFK Being down gauged. The lost capacity at BNE will be gained in MEL with 5x Weekly B787 frequency increase.

With EK pulling out of SYD-AKL, I would not be surprised to see QF retime QF1 to a late night departure and operate the A380 on SYD-AKL to increase utilisation.
 
qf71
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:27 am

Thoughts on what we could see if QF firmed up their 15 of their 15 options for delivery in 2019 and 2020. With 14 B789s for QF and 1 B788 for JQ and this would be the last B787 delivered to JQ.

MEL-PER-LHR (2.5)
MEL-DXB (1.5) - feeds into QF1/2
SYD-PER-FRA (2.5)
SYD-BOM (1.5)
PER-CDG (2.0)
BNE-LAX-JFK (2.0)
MEL-LAX (2.0)
SYD-DFW (2.0)
SYD/BNE-ORD (2.0) - Operates as SYD-ORD-BNE-YVR, allows for response to AC expansion and full payload ex ORD
SYD/BNE-YVR (2.0) - Operates as BNE-YVR-SYD-BNE, allows response to AC expansion and full payload ex ORD
 
SYDSpotter
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:56 am

qf71 wrote:
With EK pulling out of SYD-AKL, I would not be surprised to see QF retime QF1 to a late night departure and operate the A380 on SYD-AKL to increase utilisation.


QF1 is unlikely to be re-timed. The late afternoon departure ex-SYD enables an early morning arrival into LHR, a late night departure from SYD will mean it only arrives into LHR around midday, which is great for the tourist/VFR market, but not great for business people. All the key kangaroo route airlines have at least 1 arrival into LHR around 6-7am.
319_320_321_332_333_359_388 / 734_737_738_743_744_762_763_772_773_77W_788_789
 
Sydscott
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 19, 2017 11:06 am

sq256 wrote:
log0008 wrote:

Personally, I would love to see 9W launch MEL & SYD from BOM - split into maybe 3x weekly each. If you look at the India side (http://www.tourism.australia.com/docume ... ull-V5.pdf) the southern half of India dominate tourist flows. With the state of Maharashtra (Mumbai) being the number one source. Currently, 87% of Indian-Australia traffic fly's indirect (not including those connecting via Delhi) and is growing at 15% YOY, that has to be a massive opportunity. To put it into perspective on an average day 3000 people connect through Singapore to India each day (1.1 Million/365), enough for 5 77W flights each way!


Without looking at the statistics, the general assumption is that the majority of the Aus-India traffic are very low yielding (e.g. budget fare travellers), and thus more non-stop flights wouldn't work without either significant government subsidies (e.g Air India) and/or the premium traffic to support further Aus-India non-stops.

Perhaps a long haul LCC e.g Jetstar may be able to make Aus-India (non-stop or even 1-stop) work with the low yielding pax should they decide to get more 787s?


QF also pick up a significant amount of India traffic in Singapore as well. So while SQ has larger amount, QF uses SIN for the same purpose as SQ. (Just have a look at the codeshares ex SIN for QF)
qf71 wrote:
At the Paris Air Show is there any chance that we will see an order from QF for the B777X and to firm up their 15 B787 options?


Potentially but I doubt it. To my mind the next big item for QF is getting the AA J/V across the line. If they were to do that then they would need more 789's for DFW service and we could potentially then see the launch of ORD service. Otherwise a handful more 789's are needed if QF wanted to do a second PER-LHR route, a permanent YVR route or another PER-Europe route and after that QF would line the 787's up for delivery as the A330's leave the fleet in the 2020's.
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 19, 2017 11:45 am

qf71 wrote:
At the Paris Air Show is there any chance that we will see an order from QF for the B777X and to firm up their 15 B787 options?
MEL-LAX (1.5) - announced, will take overflow pax from BNE-LAX and allow better connections to LAX from regional Australia

You can't do BNE-LAX overflow with MEL-LAX especially with BNE O/D pax - it's a 4h detour plus ground time already. Unless you take all pax originally connect at BNE to connect at MEL now - but then you run into the issue that you basically can only serve a limited number of cities at LAX end.

qf71 wrote:
With EK pulling out of SYD-AKL, I would not be surprised to see QF retime QF1 to a late night departure and operate the A380 on SYD-AKL to increase utilisation.

QF don't even schedule A332 on regular services between SYD-AKL until the pulling of EK service so I highly doubt this would happen for the foreseeable future.
 
log0008
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 19, 2017 12:10 pm

Sydscott wrote:
QF also pick up a significant amount of India traffic in Singapore as well. So while SQ has larger amount, QF uses SIN for the same purpose as SQ. (Just have a look at the codeshares ex SIN for QF)


They sure do. Here is a list of airlines and share of arrivals by airline (Tourism Australia)

SQ: 26%
MH: 13%
QF: 13%
AI: 13%
TG: 9%
D7: 6%

This is also why there are now strong rumours that QF may send the extra A380's to SIN and not HKG.
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 19, 2017 12:13 pm

qf71 wrote:
At the Paris Air Show is there any chance that we will see an order from QF for the B777X and to firm up their 15 B787 options?
Especially as forward booking for PER-LHR have been extremely strong and QF have stated that they desire to fly SYD-LHR in the near future.

8 B787-9 is only enough for the routes that QF have hinted or formally announced at which are;

BNE-LAX-JFK (2.0) - Not Yet Announced, yet strongly hinted and the lounge at BNE has just been refurbished.
MEL-PER-LHR (2.5) - Announced. Will allow for yield improvement to LHR and allow QF to provide the most competitive one stop option to Europe with PER-HUB
MEL-LAX (1.5) - announced, will take overflow pax from BNE-LAX and allow better connections to LAX from regional Australia
PER-CDG (2.0) - Strongly hinted by QF. Will mark a return to mainland Europe following the 2013 suspension of SIN-FRA. will also allow an alternative entry into Europe other than LHR and will mean that QF even though they have dropped MEL-DXB-LHR are maintaining their existing capacity in the Australia - Europe Market. Yet will increase destinations and frequencies offered with an offering that will allow them to have a yield advantage over their competitors.

The two A380s that are displaced from MEL-DXB to go to MEL-HKG and SYD-HKG. Both will be daily and will allow for the retirement of 2 B747-400s. 2 B747-400s will also be retired with BNE-LAX-JFK Being down gauged. The lost capacity at BNE will be gained in MEL with 5x Weekly B787 frequency increase.

With EK pulling out of SYD-AKL, I would not be surprised to see QF retime QF1 to a late night departure and operate the A380 on SYD-AKL to increase utilisation.


I'm still a skeptic around BNE-LAX becoming a 789. It seems to be giving too much capacity to strengthen VA ex-BNE. Wth QF expandinng MEL-LAX and potentially putting an A380 on MEL-HKG, even a return to MEL-DPS after the sucess
of SYD-DPS, QF are competing and pressuring VA international hard. I'd think BNE can handle the current capacity. If they managed BNE-DFW and BNE-LAX I could see this working. But I was one who didn't believe MEL-DXB-LHR would end either way VA is a bit of a lost soul, !92 is not the time to take th heat off.
 
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sunrisevalley
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:24 pm

Is it possible that QF will add a ~260 seat 789 to the fleet for the up to ~ 16hr city pairs. I beleive this would work most days on DFW-MEL.What are the views on this?
Last edited by sunrisevalley on Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:32 pm

qf71 wrote:
Thoughts on what we could see if QF firmed up their 15 of their 15 options for delivery in 2019 and 2020. With 14 B789s for QF and 1 B788 for JQ and this would be the last B787 delivered to JQ.

MEL-PER-LHR (2.5)
MEL-DXB (1.5) - feeds into QF1/2
SYD-PER-FRA (2.5)
SYD-BOM (1.5)
PER-CDG (2.0)
BNE-LAX-JFK (2.0)
MEL-LAX (2.0)
SYD-DFW (2.0)
SYD/BNE-ORD (2.0) - Operates as SYD-ORD-BNE-YVR, allows for response to AC expansion and full payload ex ORD
SYD/BNE-YVR (2.0) - Operates as BNE-YVR-SYD-BNE, allows response to AC expansion and full payload ex ORD


What about some domestic variants? Or would 332/3s be ok for that?
 
FromCDGtoSYD
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:34 pm

log0008 wrote:
This is also why there are now strong rumours that QF may send the extra A380's to SIN and not HKG.


QF's lounge in SIN always seemed like a wasted space considering SIN only gets 4 A330s and 1 737 per day. Considering the amount of frames that will be freed, I don't see when they both couldn't get A380s. Maybe SYD-SIN/HKG and MEL-HKG ?
 
qf71
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:46 pm

qf2220 wrote:
qf71 wrote:
Thoughts on what we could see if QF firmed up their 15 of their 15 options for delivery in 2019 and 2020. With 14 B789s for QF and 1 B788 for JQ and this would be the last B787 delivered to JQ.

What about some domestic variants? Or would 332/3s be ok for that?


I think the days of "Domestic" Widebody configurations are over. As they do not provide flexibility to be deployed on international routes from a product perspective. This is one of the reasons QF got rid of the B767s. I think it will be more likely we will see later on a 2 Class 270Y/30J B787-900 replacing the A332/A333 Fleet when the 30 purchase options are converted to firm order.

Long term I think we will probably see 3 QF B787-9 configurations.
3 Class ULH (Low Density) 165Y/28W/42J - 236 Seat for Ultra Long Haul missions in excess of 12hrs or Premium Heavy Routes
3 Class LH (High Density) 237Y/21W/30J - 288 Seat for Long Haul missions up to 14hrs. for routes currently operated by A332 or A333 that could really do with a Premium Economy cabin. In addition to routes that do not have heavy J Demand. American Airlines are operating a B789 with this type of configuration when they down gauge SYD soon. Existing Routes which could do with such an aircraft are SYD-PEK, SYD-PVG, SYD-SIN, MEL-SIN, SYD-BKK, SYD-HNL
2 Class MH - 270Y/30J - For Domestic Routes and International Routes that only require a 2 Class Cabin.
 
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sunrisevalley
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 19, 2017 2:18 pm

qf71 wrote:
[
Long term I think we will probably see 3 QF B787-9 configurations.
3 Class ULH (Low Density) 165Y/28W/42J - 236 Seat for Long Haul missions in excess of 12hrs
3 Class LH (High Density) 237Y/21W/30J - 288 Seat for Long Haul missions up to 12hrs. for routes currently operated by A332 or A333 that could really do with a Premium Economy cabin. In addition to routes that do not have heavy J Demand. American Airlines are operating a B789 with this type of configuration when they down gauge SYD soon. Existing Routes which could do with such an aircraft are SYD-PEK, SYD-PVG, SYD-SIN, MEL-SIN, SYD-BKK, SYD-HNL
2 Class MH - 270Y/30J - For Domestic Routes and International Routes that only require a 2 Class Cabin.


In reality the 288 seat High Density you have defined could be used up to `16hrs.30min and would probably work most days for DFW-MEL. I don't understand why more carriers don't use the AA and UA practice of some Y seats at 35" pitch. This would make a big difference on 14 to 16-hr sectors.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 19, 2017 2:22 pm

FromCDGtoSYD wrote:
log0008 wrote:
This is also why there are now strong rumours that QF may send the extra A380's to SIN and not HKG.


QF's lounge in SIN always seemed like a wasted space considering SIN only gets 4 A330s and 1 737 per day. Considering the amount of frames that will be freed, I don't see when they both couldn't get A380s. Maybe SYD-SIN/HKG and MEL-HKG ?


Switch MEL-HKG to MEL-SIN and that's the rumours I have heard.
 
qf71
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:53 pm

log0008 wrote:
FromCDGtoSYD wrote:
log0008 wrote:
This is also why there are now strong rumours that QF may send the extra A380's to SIN and not HKG.


QF's lounge in SIN always seemed like a wasted space considering SIN only gets 4 A330s and 1 737 per day. Considering the amount of frames that will be freed, I don't see when they both couldn't get A380s. Maybe SYD-SIN/HKG and MEL-HKG ?


Switch MEL-HKG to MEL-SIN and that's the rumours I have heard.



Could we possibly see QF only retire the two early 1990s build B744s (OEB &OJM) with the 3 RR B744s retirements being deferred by 12 months until say another 8 or so B787s are delivered?

If QF only retires 2 B747s that would leave enough A380s for daily SYD-HKG, SYD-SIN, MEL-SIN and MEL-HKG. An exciting proposition, which would see W re-introduced to SIN along with First Class to HKG and SIN, which would re-enforce QF's First Class offering.

In this instance the B789s would be used for MEL-DFW, SYD-DFW, MEL-PER-LHR and MEL-DXB. The later two flights using 4 aircraft in a W pattern.

A380-800 (12)
SYD-LAX (2.0)
MEL-LAX (2.0)
SYD-DXB-LHR (3.0) retimed to evening departure, to allow for connection to allow MEL-DXB PAX to connect. Service will also connect to EK services from BNE and PER, both ways. It will also allow for increased efficiency and operational reliability of the A380 fleet.
SYD-SIN (1.0)
SYD-HKG (1.0)
MEL-SIN (1.0)
MEL-HKG (1.0)

B747-400 (9)
BNE-LAX-JFK (2.0)
SYD-SFO (1.5)
SYD-JNB (1.5)
SYD-HND (1.5)
SYD-SCL (1.5)

B787-9 (8)
MEL-PER-LHR (2.5)
MEL-DXB (1.5) - connects to retimed QF1
MEL-DFW (2.0) - 6x Weekly, no Tuesday Flight
SYD-DFW (2.0)
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:39 pm

Effective 25 July 17 TZ flights OOL-SIN and PER-SIN will operate under TR codes

http://www.routesonline.com/news/38/air ... july-2017/
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:48 pm

Sydscott wrote:
qf71 wrote:
At the Paris Air Show is there any chance that we will see an order from QF for the B777X and to firm up their 15 B787 options?


Potentially but I doubt it. To my mind the next big item for QF is getting the AA J/V across the line. If they were to do that then they would need more 789's for DFW service and we could potentially then see the launch of ORD service. Otherwise a handful more 789's are needed if QF wanted to do a second PER-LHR route, a permanent YVR route or another PER-Europe route and after that QF would line the 787's up for delivery as the A330's leave the fleet in the 2020's.


AJ has previously said he wants to order more 787's but wants to make sure the 8 on order make money. IMO the 15 options will likely be firmed up at the half yearly result in Feb 2018. Pretty much all of these 15 frames could be used for expansion, expected delivery 2019-2020. The 30 purchase rights (expected delivery 2020-2025) would be used for A330 replacements, I would expect this to be a mix of 787-9's and 787-10's
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:49 pm

CA closes SZX-MEL reservations from 1 August 17

http://www.routesonline.com/news/38/air ... -aug-2017/
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:33 pm

While I would never say never, the chance of QF1 being re-timed to an evening departure with times similar to EK413 strikes me as very, very low. The most time sensitive corporate traffic values the early morning arrival.

I can't see the A380s going to SIN. If there was such a large market they would be sending the 747s there and not HKG. With CX unable to expand in Australia and VA unlikely to have the aircraft to add another flight, HKG is wide open for Qantas. The same is not true in Singapore. SQ have shown that they will flex capacity up or down almost on a daily basis to remain abreast of market fluctuations and SE Asia and India generally are a low fare blood bath with D7, TZ, MH and TG all throwing capacity at the market.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:13 pm

qf71 wrote:
log0008 wrote:
FromCDGtoSYD wrote:

QF's lounge in SIN always seemed like a wasted space considering SIN only gets 4 A330s and 1 737 per day. Considering the amount of frames that will be freed, I don't see when they both couldn't get A380s. Maybe SYD-SIN/HKG and MEL-HKG ?


Switch MEL-HKG to MEL-SIN and that's the rumours I have heard.



Could we possibly see QF only retire the two early 1990s build B744s (OEB &OJM) with the 3 RR B744s retirements being deferred by 12 months until say another 8 or so B787s are delivered?

If QF only retires 2 B747s that would leave enough A380s for daily SYD-HKG, SYD-SIN, MEL-SIN and MEL-HKG. An exciting proposition, which would see W re-introduced to SIN along with First Class to HKG and SIN, which would re-enforce QF's First Class offering.

In this instance the B789s would be used for MEL-DFW, SYD-DFW, MEL-PER-LHR and MEL-DXB. The later two flights using 4 aircraft in a W pattern.

A380-800 (12)
SYD-LAX (2.0)
MEL-LAX (2.0)
SYD-DXB-LHR (3.0) retimed to evening departure, to allow for connection to allow MEL-DXB PAX to connect. Service will also connect to EK services from BNE and PER, both ways. It will also allow for increased efficiency and operational reliability of the A380 fleet.
SYD-SIN (1.0)
SYD-HKG (1.0)
MEL-SIN (1.0)
MEL-HKG (1.0)

B747-400 (9)
BNE-LAX-JFK (2.0)
SYD-SFO (1.5)
SYD-JNB (1.5)
SYD-HND (1.5)
SYD-SCL (1.5)

B787-9 (8)
MEL-PER-LHR (2.5)
MEL-DXB (1.5) - connects to retimed QF1
MEL-DFW (2.0) - 6x Weekly, no Tuesday Flight
SYD-DFW (2.0)


Makes the most sense to me, however I would imagine SIN may wait until after the 380s have been refit.
 
DeltaB717
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:14 am

qf71 wrote:
The two A380s that are displaced from MEL-DXB...

With EK pulling out of SYD-AKL, I would not be surprised to see QF retime QF1 to a late night departure and operate the A380 on SYD-AKL to increase utilisation.


On your first point, given that QF1 and QF2 will continue to arrive and depart at LHR at the same times as they do now, I expect the reduction in frames required for LHR will actually be more like 1.5 than 2. The timings of QF9 and QF10 as they are now makes for more efficient utilisation and scheduling - take that away and leaving just QF1 / QF2 becomes more 'expensive' in terms of frame utilisation. I've not sat down and worked it out, and I may be wrong, but I suspect taking the A380 off QF9 / QF10 doesn't free up as much frame time as it seems.

On your second point, I would be very surprised to see QF use an A380 to AKL for a mid-morning eastbound and an early-afternoon westbound. The A330 seems like just the right aircraft for that gig (and, as someone else pointed out, QF have only taken that step in the absence of EK's SYD-AKL rotation).
 
Gemuser
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 20, 2017 1:10 am

qf789 wrote:
AJ has previously said he wants to order more 787's but wants to make sure the 8 on order make money. IMO the 15 options will likely be firmed up at the half yearly result in Feb 2018. Pretty much all of these 15 frames could be used for expansion, expected delivery 2019-2020. The 30 purchase rights (expected delivery 2020-2025) would be used for A330 replacements, I would expect this to be a mix of 787-9's and 787-10's

I agree, except for the number. As I understand it these options have firm exercise/delivery dates attached so why firm them up early if QF do not get any advantage to it? A further point is, I believe. that if firm orders are issued they go on the balance sheet as a commitment, given QF capex problems they will not do that until they have to. I think that baring any major disruptions we will see a steady firming up of the options as their exercise dates approach.

Gemuser
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 20, 2017 1:15 am

DeltaB717 wrote:
On your first point, given that QF1 and QF2 will continue to arrive and depart at LHR at the same times as they do now, I expect the reduction in frames required for LHR will actually be more like 1.5 than 2. The timings of QF9 and QF10 as they are now makes for more efficient utilisation and scheduling - take that away and leaving just QF1 / QF2 becomes more 'expensive' in terms of frame utilisation. I've not sat down and worked it out, and I may be wrong, but I suspect taking the A380 off QF9 / QF10 doesn't free up as much frame time as it seems.

Given QF1/2/9/10 combo currently needs 5 planes and when PER-LHR happens, QF1/2 will need three planes per current schedule below (for S18):

QF1 SYD1550-0655+1LHR
QF2 LHR2135-0605+2SYD

Effectively you have one plane departing today and returning in the morning of the fourth day . Sounds more likely to be 2 planes freed up.
 
Sydscott
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 20, 2017 1:40 am

Gemuser wrote:
qf789 wrote:
AJ has previously said he wants to order more 787's but wants to make sure the 8 on order make money. IMO the 15 options will likely be firmed up at the half yearly result in Feb 2018. Pretty much all of these 15 frames could be used for expansion, expected delivery 2019-2020. The 30 purchase rights (expected delivery 2020-2025) would be used for A330 replacements, I would expect this to be a mix of 787-9's and 787-10's

I agree, except for the number. As I understand it these options have firm exercise/delivery dates attached so why firm them up early if QF do not get any advantage to it? A further point is, I believe. that if firm orders are issued they go on the balance sheet as a commitment, given QF capex problems they will not do that until they have to. I think that baring any major disruptions we will see a steady firming up of the options as their exercise dates approach.

Gemuser


Agree with Gemuser. I can't see a large order coming because the capex would spook the market. A steady trickle linked to catalysts like the AA JV being approved is more likely.

Also interesting, and somewhat to the side, QF now have an interesting future decision to make in relation to replacing the narrowbody fleet. As we know of the 99 A320NEO's on order, a significant portion of those are scheduled to be A321's which would be handy for the all of the JQ group airlines in terms of incremental capacity growth and, with the extra range, some interesting new international routes. But now that Boeing has the 737 MAX10 to be followed up the 797 it's certainly going to be interesting to see which way a 738 replacement goes. I can see a need for the an A321/Max-10 sized aircraft both for transcontinental flying, which frees up A330's for International, and for some shorter haul international flying for QF. (Think PER-SIN, East Coast - New Zealand) It could make for a very interesting competition between Airbus and Boeing for a QF order.
 
jwoww
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 20, 2017 1:56 am

Sydscott wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
qf789 wrote:
AJ has previously said he wants to order more 787's but wants to make sure the 8 on order make money. IMO the 15 options will likely be firmed up at the half yearly result in Feb 2018. Pretty much all of these 15 frames could be used for expansion, expected delivery 2019-2020. The 30 purchase rights (expected delivery 2020-2025) would be used for A330 replacements, I would expect this to be a mix of 787-9's and 787-10's

I agree, except for the number. As I understand it these options have firm exercise/delivery dates attached so why firm them up early if QF do not get any advantage to it? A further point is, I believe. that if firm orders are issued they go on the balance sheet as a commitment, given QF capex problems they will not do that until they have to. I think that baring any major disruptions we will see a steady firming up of the options as their exercise dates approach.

Gemuser


Agree with Gemuser. I can't see a large order coming because the capex would spook the market. A steady trickle linked to catalysts like the AA JV being approved is more likely.

Also interesting, and somewhat to the side, QF now have an interesting future decision to make in relation to replacing the narrowbody fleet. As we know of the 99 A320NEO's on order, a significant portion of those are scheduled to be A321's which would be handy for the all of the JQ group airlines in terms of incremental capacity growth and, with the extra range, some interesting new international routes. But now that Boeing has the 737 MAX10 to be followed up the 797 it's certainly going to be interesting to see which way a 738 replacement goes. I can see a need for the an A321/Max-10 sized aircraft both for transcontinental flying, which frees up A330's for International, and for some shorter haul international flying for QF. (Think PER-SIN, East Coast - New Zealand) It could make for a very interesting competition between Airbus and Boeing for a QF order.


Jetstar (atleast the Australian portion) has no plans to get more A321s, so they would end up staying with Qantas, even though they don't currently use them and would have to retrain all their FA's that do domestic how to use them
 
waoz1
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:20 am

New WA government is launching an investigation into WA regional airfares.
Will be a big talkfest with very little happening in the end, thought it was worth mentioning.

https://thewest.com.au/news/pilbara-new ... b88512054z
 
waoz1
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:47 am

Malaysia Airlines cuts Darwin-Kuala Lumpur
Last flight 27th July

https://www.ausbt.com.au/malaysia-airli ... ur-flights
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 20, 2017 3:05 am

qf789 wrote:
Sydscott wrote:
qf71 wrote:
At the Paris Air Show is there any chance that we will see an order from QF for the B777X and to firm up their 15 B787 options?


Potentially but I doubt it. To my mind the next big item for QF is getting the AA J/V across the line. If they were to do that then they would need more 789's for DFW service and we could potentially then see the launch of ORD service. Otherwise a handful more 789's are needed if QF wanted to do a second PER-LHR route, a permanent YVR route or another PER-Europe route and after that QF would line the 787's up for delivery as the A330's leave the fleet in the 2020's.


AJ has previously said he wants to order more 787's but wants to make sure the 8 on order make money. IMO the 15 options will likely be firmed up at the half yearly result in Feb 2018. Pretty much all of these 15 frames could be used for expansion, expected delivery 2019-2020. The 30 purchase rights (expected delivery 2020-2025) would be used for A330 replacements, I would expect this to be a mix of 787-9's and 787-10's


In my view their ordering is strategic to help manage credit ratings. The options and purchase rights are locked away. There is no need for them to be converted into actual orders until the expiry date of the order. If they were to go ahead and do that, the ratings agencies would factor that in which could impact their rating in a negative way, but by not, it may not. Ive been of the view that there will be multiple top up orders of 787s that will go on for years for this very purpose. It also may give them some bargaining position with Boeing over time, i.e. that the orders are still at risk and so perhaps some additional sweeteners/concessions are agreed to by Boeing.
 
Sydscott
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 20, 2017 3:45 am

jwoww wrote:
Sydscott wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
I agree, except for the number. As I understand it these options have firm exercise/delivery dates attached so why firm them up early if QF do not get any advantage to it? A further point is, I believe. that if firm orders are issued they go on the balance sheet as a commitment, given QF capex problems they will not do that until they have to. I think that baring any major disruptions we will see a steady firming up of the options as their exercise dates approach.

Gemuser


Agree with Gemuser. I can't see a large order coming because the capex would spook the market. A steady trickle linked to catalysts like the AA JV being approved is more likely.

Also interesting, and somewhat to the side, QF now have an interesting future decision to make in relation to replacing the narrowbody fleet. As we know of the 99 A320NEO's on order, a significant portion of those are scheduled to be A321's which would be handy for the all of the JQ group airlines in terms of incremental capacity growth and, with the extra range, some interesting new international routes. But now that Boeing has the 737 MAX10 to be followed up the 797 it's certainly going to be interesting to see which way a 738 replacement goes. I can see a need for the an A321/Max-10 sized aircraft both for transcontinental flying, which frees up A330's for International, and for some shorter haul international flying for QF. (Think PER-SIN, East Coast - New Zealand) It could make for a very interesting competition between Airbus and Boeing for a QF order.


Jetstar (atleast the Australian portion) has no plans to get more A321s, so they would end up staying with Qantas, even though they don't currently use them and would have to retrain all their FA's that do domestic how to use them


I wouldn't be so sure. Increased transcon 737 flying leaves a gap in PER in terms of economy seats which JQ can fill with A321's. VA's withdrawl from DPS also creates opportunities for them hence JQ making one of their PER-DPS services into an A321 service. So I think there are more opportunities than people would think for JQ Australia to utilise an A321.
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 20, 2017 3:53 am

Outgoing passenger cards to be axed from 1 July

https://www.ausbt.com.au/outgoing-passe ... m-july-1st
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jwoww
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 20, 2017 4:44 am

Sydscott wrote:
jwoww wrote:
Sydscott wrote:

Agree with Gemuser. I can't see a large order coming because the capex would spook the market. A steady trickle linked to catalysts like the AA JV being approved is more likely.

Also interesting, and somewhat to the side, QF now have an interesting future decision to make in relation to replacing the narrowbody fleet. As we know of the 99 A320NEO's on order, a significant portion of those are scheduled to be A321's which would be handy for the all of the JQ group airlines in terms of incremental capacity growth and, with the extra range, some interesting new international routes. But now that Boeing has the 737 MAX10 to be followed up the 797 it's certainly going to be interesting to see which way a 738 replacement goes. I can see a need for the an A321/Max-10 sized aircraft both for transcontinental flying, which frees up A330's for International, and for some shorter haul international flying for QF. (Think PER-SIN, East Coast - New Zealand) It could make for a very interesting competition between Airbus and Boeing for a QF order.


Jetstar (atleast the Australian portion) has no plans to get more A321s, so they would end up staying with Qantas, even though they don't currently use them and would have to retrain all their FA's that do domestic how to use them


I wouldn't be so sure. Increased transcon 737 flying leaves a gap in PER in terms of economy seats which JQ can fill with A321's. VA's withdrawl from DPS also creates opportunities for them hence JQ making one of their PER-DPS services into an A321 service. So I think there are more opportunities than people would think for JQ Australia to utilise an A321.


Considering i work for the airline and i know what things are coming in the next 18 months, i'd be pretty sure. Besides the A321's only do routes along the East Coast and are based in Sydney and Melbourne
 
Qantas16
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 20, 2017 5:34 am

qf789 wrote:
Outgoing passenger cards to be axed from 1 July

https://www.ausbt.com.au/outgoing-passe ... m-july-1st


Great news! They weren't collecting significant information anyway and relied on people dropping them in the box... glad to see them go. Shame for BNE that invested all that money in the electronic departure card through their app though!
 
Sydscott
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 20, 2017 6:10 am

jwoww wrote:
Sydscott wrote:
jwoww wrote:

Jetstar (atleast the Australian portion) has no plans to get more A321s, so they would end up staying with Qantas, even though they don't currently use them and would have to retrain all their FA's that do domestic how to use them


I wouldn't be so sure. Increased transcon 737 flying leaves a gap in PER in terms of economy seats which JQ can fill with A321's. VA's withdrawl from DPS also creates opportunities for them hence JQ making one of their PER-DPS services into an A321 service. So I think there are more opportunities than people would think for JQ Australia to utilise an A321.


Considering i work for the airline and i know what things are coming in the next 18 months, i'd be pretty sure. Besides the A321's only do routes along the East Coast and are based in Sydney and Melbourne


If you work for the airline then you'd be aware of this - http://iasc.gov.au/applications/files/Q ... onesia.pdf - which indicates that the A321 will be doing PER-DPS on an on-going basis. Care to re-check that position?
 
325i
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Re: ustralian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 20, 2017 6:29 am

Hi folks, curve ball time! QF A 380 ex KSA to Singapore and onto LHR. Passengers feeding in from NZ and BNE plus all those sigruntled passengers from Sydney who for some reason detest DXB. Any thoughts?
 
ben175
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 20, 2017 6:36 am

Is there actual statistics to show transcon traffic to PER is decreasing as it's constantly discussed? I fly regularly on both QF and VA A330's from MEL to PER and no matter what time of the year they are ALWAYS at least 85-90% full. I've only had one or two half empty flights since I can remember. Obviously there's been a drop in demand with the cooling mining sector and adjustments have been made accordingly so far, but surely any other downgrades to 737s are unwarranted. Plus both airlines have made such a fuss about their coast to coast business products, so unless they opt for a Mint style J product on the narrowbody fleet, there's sure to be some angry Platinums.
 
Qantas16
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Re: ustralian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 20, 2017 6:38 am

325i wrote:
Hi folks, curve ball time! QF A 380 ex KSA to Singapore and onto LHR. Passengers feeding in from NZ and BNE plus all those sigruntled passengers from Sydney who for some reason detest DXB. Any thoughts?


Not going to happen unless the EK/QF partnership ends. "All those disgruntled passengers from Sydney who for some reason detest DXB" is a very small group, contrary to what some members on here would lead you to believe. Also, unless QF launches AKL-SIN direct, it's always going to be at a disadvantage to the many carriers that can offer one-stop AKL-Europe, so yields on that segment would be low. BNE is fine served by EK for the time being or on partner carriers ex-SIN/HKG.
 
jwoww
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 20, 2017 7:00 am

Sydscott wrote:
jwoww wrote:
Sydscott wrote:

I wouldn't be so sure. Increased transcon 737 flying leaves a gap in PER in terms of economy seats which JQ can fill with A321's. VA's withdrawl from DPS also creates opportunities for them hence JQ making one of their PER-DPS services into an A321 service. So I think there are more opportunities than people would think for JQ Australia to utilise an A321.


Considering i work for the airline and i know what things are coming in the next 18 months, i'd be pretty sure. Besides the A321's only do routes along the East Coast and are based in Sydney and Melbourne


If you work for the airline then you'd be aware of this - http://iasc.gov.au/applications/files/Q ... onesia.pdf - which indicates that the A321 will be doing PER-DPS on an on-going basis. Care to re-check that position?


I do still work for them, and the A321 will be doing that route, but it doesn't mean that there will be new aircraft added to the fleet. Its called changing your aircraft routes.
 
Sydscott
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 20, 2017 7:28 am

jwoww wrote:
Sydscott wrote:
jwoww wrote:

Considering i work for the airline and i know what things are coming in the next 18 months, i'd be pretty sure. Besides the A321's only do routes along the East Coast and are based in Sydney and Melbourne


If you work for the airline then you'd be aware of this - http://iasc.gov.au/applications/files/Q ... onesia.pdf - which indicates that the A321 will be doing PER-DPS on an on-going basis. Care to re-check that position?


I do still work for them, and the A321 will be doing that route, but it doesn't mean that there will be new aircraft added to the fleet. Its called changing your aircraft routes.


So the bit where you said "the A321's only do routes along the East Coast" is incorrect. They'll be doing routes to PER and International service from PER which is logical given what's happened to VA's DPS service. An A321 being redeployed from where it is currently flying in order to do this is called "changing your aircraft routes". Neither of which precludes Jetstar wanting or getting more to take advantage of further such changing of aircraft routes.

Qantas16 wrote:
Not going to happen unless the EK/QF partnership ends. "All those disgruntled passengers from Sydney who for some reason detest DXB" is a very small group, contrary to what some members on here would lead you to believe. Also, unless QF launches AKL-SIN direct, it's always going to be at a disadvantage to the many carriers that can offer one-stop AKL-Europe, so yields on that segment would be low. BNE is fine served by EK for the time being or on partner carriers ex-SIN/HKG.


Not to mention Jetstar tried and failed on AKL-SIN. No need to repeat a failed experiment. And for the "disgruntled" pax who don't like DXB there are plenty of other Oneworld options through KUL, HKG or NRT to get to Europe plus they'll be able to overfly DXB on PER-LHR direct if they want to.
 
jwoww
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 20, 2017 7:45 am

Sydscott wrote:
jwoww wrote:
Sydscott wrote:

If you work for the airline then you'd be aware of this - http://iasc.gov.au/applications/files/Q ... onesia.pdf - which indicates that the A321 will be doing PER-DPS on an on-going basis. Care to re-check that position?


I do still work for them, and the A321 will be doing that route, but it doesn't mean that there will be new aircraft added to the fleet. Its called changing your aircraft routes.


So the bit where you said "the A321's only do routes along the East Coast" is incorrect. They'll be doing routes to PER and International service from PER which is logical given what's happened to VA's DPS service. An A321 being redeployed from where it is currently flying in order to do this is called "changing your aircraft routes and timing". Neither of which precludes Jetstar wanting or getting more to take advantage of further such changing of aircraft routes.

Qantas16 wrote:
Not going to happen unless the EK/QF partnership ends. "All those disgruntled passengers from Sydney who for some reason detest DXB" is a very small group, contrary to what some members on here would lead you to believe. Also, unless QF launches AKL-SIN direct, it's always going to be at a disadvantage to the many carriers that can offer one-stop AKL-Europe, so yields on that segment would be low. BNE is fine served by EK for the time being or on partner carriers ex-SIN/HKG.


Not to mention Jetstar tried and failed on AKL-SIN. No need to repeat a failed experiment. And for the "disgruntled" pax who don't like DXB there are plenty of other Oneworld options through KUL, HKG or NRT to get to Europe plus they'll be able to overfly DXB on PER-LHR direct if they want to.


I don't think your understanding the part where it says that they only do routes along the East Coast, which means if you were to look at the routes they are flying right now, you will see they service the East Coast of Australia. I did not say that they WILL ONLY do routes along the East Coast. Maybe you should read the whole sentence properly and figure out that I'm not denying that they can be moving to service Perth; I know full well what aircrafts will do which routes.

If you paid attention to what i said i said that they won't be ordering A321's for the Perth flights. And when you change your aircraft routes you free up availability on your aircraft so they can be better utilised, which means that flights that are normally operated on A321 will be changed so they can use the A320 and not have aircraft sitting around not earning money. Its a very simple concept i thought.
 
TN486
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:22 am

I am fully expecting to see the JQ group order more A321's, sooner rather than later. (albeit I don't have any inside info). It's just a hunch!!
remember the t shirt "I own an airline"on the front - "qantas" on the back
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:29 am

jwoww wrote:

I don't think your understanding the part where it says that they only do routes along the East Coast, which means if you were to look at the routes they are flying right now, you will see they service the East Coast of Australia. I did not say that they WILL ONLY do routes along the East Coast. Maybe you should read the whole sentence properly and figure out that I'm not denying that they can be moving to service Perth; I know full well what aircrafts will do which routes.


Not true, JQ operate a daily A321 flight to PER from MEL (JQ972/977), last time I checked PER is not on the east coast
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SYDSpotter
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:50 am

jwoww wrote:

I do still work for them, and the A321 will be doing that route, but it doesn't mean that there will be new aircraft added to the fleet. Its called changing your aircraft routes.


If you work for JQ, should you be making any sort of comment at all on the future fleet utilisation/acquisition strategy for JQ on a public forum like A.net? Regardless of whether the speculation/discussion is completely wrong or not, I would've thought it was corporate policy not to make any comment at all on any speculation/rumour/discussion?
It's your decision to post or not, but quite explicitly stating you work for a particular airline and then stating that a particular forum member's views on a subject are incorrect is pretty dangerous IMHO.
319_320_321_332_333_359_388 / 734_737_738_743_744_762_763_772_773_77W_788_789
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:38 am

ben175 wrote:
Is there actual statistics to show transcon traffic to PER is decreasing as it's constantly discussed? I fly regularly on both QF and VA A330's from MEL to PER and no matter what time of the year they are ALWAYS at least 85-90% full. I've only had one or two half empty flights since I can remember. Obviously there's been a drop in demand with the cooling mining sector and adjustments have been made accordingly so far, but surely any other downgrades to 737s are unwarranted. Plus both airlines have made such a fuss about their coast to coast business products, so unless they opt for a Mint style J product on the narrowbody fleet, there's sure to be some angry Platinums.


You can access the information of BITRE

https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoi ... tions.aspx

For April

https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoi ... _2017a.pdf

For Example
PER-MEL
April 2017 saw 203100 seats available compared to 218200 in April 2016, a decrease of 6.9%
Load factor for April 2017 was 86.6% compared to 79.4% in April 2016, an increase of 7.2%
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AsiaTravel
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:16 am

qf789 wrote:
For Example
PER-MEL
April 2017 saw 203100 seats available compared to 218200 in April 2016, a decrease of 6.9%
Load factor for April 2017 was 86.6% compared to 79.4% in April 2016, an increase of 7.2%


So, an increase in traffic: 175,884 pax in 2017 vs 173,250 in 2016.
 
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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:47 am

SYDSpotter wrote:
jwoww wrote:

I do still work for them, and the A321 will be doing that route, but it doesn't mean that there will be new aircraft added to the fleet. Its called changing your aircraft routes.


If you work for JQ, should you be making any sort of comment at all on the future fleet utilisation/acquisition strategy for JQ on a public forum like A.net? Regardless of whether the speculation/discussion is completely wrong or not, I would've thought it was corporate policy not to make any comment at all on any speculation/rumour/discussion?
It's your decision to post or not, but quite explicitly stating you work for a particular airline and then stating that a particular forum member's views on a subject are incorrect is pretty dangerous IMHO.


Totally agree! Openly stating is plain stupidity especially since this information hasn't been publicly announced.

EK413
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
log0008
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:54 am

Full Year 2016:

Melbourne - Perth 2015: 2,138,900 2016: 2,070,800 -3.1% Load Factor: Melbourne - Perth 2015: 77.4% 2016: 80.9% +3.5% Seats: -7.2%
Perth - Sydney 2015: 1,761,000 2016: 1,753,700 -0.4% Load Factor: Perth - Sydney 2015: 78.6% 2016: 81.2% +2.6% Seats: -3.6%
Brisbane - Perth 2015: 1,007,800 2016: 984,100 -2.4% Load Factor: Brisbane - Perth 2015: 80.9% 2016 80.0% -0.8% Seats: -1.4%



Also further to my posts about India-Australia traffic

https://www.oag.com/blog/bangkok-the-tourism-hub

BKK handled 273,000 pax on India-Australia route last year, there largest international-international connection.

This confirms that India-Australia traffic is the largest international-international connection for all 3 SE Asia Hubs, SIN, KUL and BKK handling a total of 1.9 Million pax in 2016.
Last edited by log0008 on Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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qf2220
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Re: ustralian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:55 am

325i wrote:
Hi folks, curve ball time! QF A 380 ex KSA to Singapore and onto LHR. Passengers feeding in from NZ and BNE plus all those sigruntled passengers from Sydney who for some reason detest DXB. Any thoughts?



Yeah.... Nah...

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