Combined, airlines and lessors are 17% over-ordered when it comes to LCAs, according to a May 16 analysis from UBS. But that is better than before and equates to less than two years of the eight-year backlog.
Of the two OEMs, Airbus appears more vulnerable. “While Airbus carries a much larger backlog, we estimate its largest customers are more over-ordered, by 26% of their combined backlog, as compared to Boeing’s largest customers, by 2%,” UBS says.
The most over-ordered airlines across OEMs include Lion Air, AirAsia, IndiGo, VietJet and Avianca. By comparison, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines and United Airlines all look under-ordered. Delta, of course, is now well-known for using older aircraft on purpose.
By type, narrowbody aircraft led the over-order surplus at 21% of the current backlog, starting with the A320. By region, China is responsible for the majority of over-ordering. North America, by contrast, is under-ordered by roughly 900 aircraft.
It seems like a lot of interesting data/analysis from a credible source (UBS). Comments?