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Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 11:41 am

AvWeek: Before Paris Show, Optimism About Backlogs and Deliveries, Not Orders [free registration required] is an interesting article about the overall state of the backlog of airliner orders. While all of the article was interesting, the part that really caught my eye was:

Combined, airlines and lessors are 17% over-ordered when it comes to LCAs, according to a May 16 analysis from UBS. But that is better than before and equates to less than two years of the eight-year backlog.

Of the two OEMs, Airbus appears more vulnerable. “While Airbus carries a much larger backlog, we estimate its largest customers are more over-ordered, by 26% of their combined backlog, as compared to Boeing’s largest customers, by 2%,” UBS says.

The most over-ordered airlines across OEMs include Lion Air, AirAsia, IndiGo, VietJet and Avianca. By comparison, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines and United Airlines all look under-ordered. Delta, of course, is now well-known for using older aircraft on purpose.

By type, narrowbody aircraft led the over-order surplus at 21% of the current backlog, starting with the A320. By region, China is responsible for the majority of over-ordering. North America, by contrast, is under-ordered by roughly 900 aircraft.

It seems like a lot of interesting data/analysis from a credible source (UBS). Comments?
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 11:57 am

My favourite? Nah. Jet2 got a colossally good deal from Boeing for end-of-line 738s and is coming towards the end of this batch of deliveries.

The global backlog does look soft though. My principal fear is that many orders are going to collapse due to financing being unavailable. Banks going into another downturn will want to conserve cash so will be less ready to advance lines of credit. Certainly not to borrowers who are less than certified blue chip. Leasing companies could also find their cash pipelines start to narrow.

On the upside, a good shakeout of the orderbooks opens up sales opportunities and the chance of some white tail bargains for savvy buyers.
 
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 12:08 pm

Channex757 wrote:
On the upside, a good shakeout of the orderbooks opens up sales opportunities and the chance of some white tail bargains for savvy buyers.

Indeed. That's where you look to the under-ordered airlines. I think many will wait till the softness you speak of is in full effect, then do some bargain hunting.
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 12:10 pm

Not related to a 'Favorite' Airline.

We may see in the near future that the ME Airlines like Emirates & co have themself probably more overloaded with orders. Their practice of renewing planes in relatively short times . This may cause also dmages to the used market when this planes come to market.

So I expect 'stretched deliveries threre soon.
Most at risk are the 777x and the 'rest' of A380s in my opinion.

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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 12:21 pm

Flyglobal wrote:
Not related to a 'Favorite' Airline.

True. The article is much broader than that. It's just the part I found the most interesting.

Flyglobal wrote:
We may see in the near future that the ME Airlines like Emirates & co have themself probably more overloaded with orders. Their practice of renewing planes in relatively short times . This may cause also dmages to the used market when this planes come to market.

So I expect 'stretched deliveries threre soon.
Most at risk are the 777x and the 'rest' of A380s in my opinion.

Also true. In a down turn, the largest planes are at the most risk. After 9/11 the first planes that went to the desert were 747s (mostly -100/-200/-300) and most never came back. It might be (yet another) unfortunate timing of events for the A380, the death knell for its production line. 777x will struggle but IMHO will survive.
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 12:22 pm

Revelation wrote:
Channex757 wrote:
On the upside, a good shakeout of the orderbooks opens up sales opportunities and the chance of some white tail bargains for savvy buyers.

Indeed. That's where you look to the under-ordered airlines. I think many will wait till the softness you speak of is in full effect, then do some bargain hunting.

LH's CEO Spohr said something very similar, albeit refering to young second-hand aircraft:

"Grundsätzlich gesprochen, werden in den nächsten Jahren gute Deals verfügbar sein", meinte Spohr. "Airbus und Boeing haben deutlich zu viele Flugzeuge in die Golfstaaten verkauft."


"Generally speaking, very good deals will be availabe within the next years", said Spohr. "A & B sold way to many aircraft in the Gulf states".
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 12:23 pm

For my favourite- 6E, 400+ is actually not too much. The demand is super strong in India.

They also have to retire 112 CEOs. I think wth the growing infrastructure constraints and demand, it would be a wise choice to upgrade several A20N orders to A21N.
 
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 12:26 pm

My favorite: KLM, DL
KLM has only 21 on order, 1 773 and the rest being 787's.
DL has plenty on order... 739's, CS100, A321, A350, A339 (if they're actually delivered), and CR9's for Delta Connection
 
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 12:31 pm

N292UX wrote:
A339 (if they're actually delivered)

here we go again.... :stirthepot:
 
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 12:52 pm

Revelation wrote:
Also true. In a down turn, the largest planes are at the most risk. After 9/11 the first planes that went to the desert were 747s (mostly -100/-200/-300) and most never came back. It might be (yet another) unfortunate timing of events for the A380, the death knell for its production line. 777x will struggle but IMHO will survive.


My recollection is somewhat different. Us airlines retired many of their older less efficient aircraft. For a while it was like the wholesale slaughter of anything with JT8Ds. The 727 was parked right away at UA, AA, NW... even UPS jot rid of their -200Fs (all their -100s were RR powered). The 732 was also swatted down ASAP in UA and Metrojet fleets.

Since 9/11 there is a new generation of "old stock" aircraft flying around, this time including A320 and soon 737NG airframes. This is having an effect on the secondary used market, with DL ressurecting stored 757s with "only" 80,000 hours on them, and 757/767 freighters pressed into service with double digit line numbers. Heck we just saw ANOTHER DC-8 leave IGM this past week going back into service. Cumulative hours/cycles on the worldwide fleet basically eats 1-2 aicraft's worth daily, so I'm not too worried about rampant overproduction. Yet.
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 1:16 pm

The juiciest deals are going to be available to companies that can nip in and offer a fast completion. Delta will probably be the one to watch of the Big Three. They could sit pat on their cash pile then strike like a billion dollar cobra onto cancelled fleet orders or collapsed carrier lightly used airframes.

it's all going to be fast and furious in the narrowbody sector and cash will be king if banks start squeezing credit lines.

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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 1:44 pm

Interesting that US airlines are under ordered. Res over-ordered. I can understand ordering for replacement cycles and modest growth. But needing to order over five years out for substantial growth is hazardous - for all parties involved. As mentioned it may create opportunities for those who under ordered.
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 2:09 pm

My favorite is AA. One could say they over ordered 359s, because they don't want any, but that doesn't count. I'd say if anything they under ordered, especially 77Ws.
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 2:27 pm

BENAir01 wrote:
My favorite is AA. One could say they over ordered 359s, because they don't want any, but that doesn't count. I'd say if anything they under ordered, especially 77Ws.

Price is everything. If AA inherited the A350 order at a great launch discount then it would be lunacy not to go forward with it.

AA is another poacher, picking up odd 773ERs here and there from Boeing. It seems like they were taking advantage of the moving order list and buying opportunely when slots became free. I wouldn't discount AA taking more of them as the runup to the 777X proceeds. Similarly they might even convert the A359 to A35X as UAL did, as that could be the sweet spot airliner for 772ER retirements as they come due.

I see the A35X working on the North Atlantic and South American routes, with the 773ER working in harmony on heavy and long Pacific ones.
 
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 2:31 pm

Favourite airline (well local airline)BA not over ordered.
ME3?Its gonna be bloody Imho.
In general many large orders will be 'stretched' over time.But there will be some cancelations or at a minimum trading down.
 
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 2:57 pm

N14AZ wrote:
"Generally speaking, very good deals will be availabe within the next years", said Spohr. "A & B sold way to many aircraft in the Gulf states".

I don't really think EK has over ordered. It's a healthy airline and the 777X and A380 orders are for replacement of current aircraft. QR is counting on further growth, we have to wait and see if they can sustain that. If not, cancellations/deferrals could happen. EY most certainly has over ordered, particularly with 787 and A350. Deferrals/cancellations are inevitable there IMO.
N292UX wrote:
My favorite: KLM, DL
KLM has only 21 on order, 1 773 and the rest being 787's.

And 7x A359. Should be enough to complete the 747 retirement in 2021. (AF/)KL has enough options on the 787/A350 to replace the A332 after 2021, so I think they're fine. RFP for narrowbody replacement will probably go out this year.

I'm still wondering where all of SQ's A350s and 787s will go. They are ambitious with growth, and have a subsidiary in India which plans widebody operations. But I have to wait and see if all that will become reality.
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 2:58 pm

I too think Delta especially will be interesting to watch. I can see them getting an incredible deal at some point on both a large NB order and a WB order in the next 5-10 years if some of the "over-orders" by others collapse. United also may pull an intetesting order with Kirby there at United now. Maybe Alaska also launches some major expansion through a block buster order.
 
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 3:00 pm

There is also the multi-line setup at Airbus to consider. As carriers reschedule and upsize from the A320NEO to the A321NEO, that could leave opportunities for bargains coming off the Toulouse line.

If an order for an A320N gets shifted to Hamburg or Mobile and upsized then it's a slot to be resold. Toulouse doesn't build the bigger variant. Of course the Boeing setup for the 737MAX is different and there is centralisation of the build at Renton
 
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 3:16 pm

We're doing fine here at AA, IMHO. Everything we have on order, mainline and Eagle, is for fleet renewal and growth!

We do have a very impressive number of 738s, and once all the MAXs are delivered, we'll have over 400 737s! (Wow!) By the time we're ready to retire the first batch, hopefully Boeing has the NSA up and running.

BENAir01 wrote:
My favorite is AA. One could say they over ordered 359s, because they don't want any, but that doesn't count. I'd say if anything they under ordered, especially 77Ws.


The A350-900s will be an interesting thing to watch. While it would serve as a very fine 77E replacement, it does seem to add to a size bracket already well served by another type, the 789. And yes, for an airline the size, it's not uncommon for two aircraft like that to coexist, but when you factor in the cost of training, mechanics, FA, pilots, and then getting the aircraft that AA never ordered themselves, it doesn't really make sense, unless AA builds the fleet down the road.

The 77W count is fine, in my opinion. 20x is perfect for the premium routes and markets. I see AA ordering the 777-9 at some point anyway, so if they need growth, additional units or open additional markets, the 779 might just be the way to go.
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 3:28 pm

AM has a lot of 737MAX coming. Mostly -8s I think, but I am crossing my fingers that they will also get -9s. A few more 789s should also arrive soon. Seems this will allow them to get rid of their 737NG fleet and the last 2 77Es (these 2 may have already left, not sure). Regional-wise, their ERJ-145s will be replaced with E-170s and E-175s. Seems AM is neither over-ordered nor under-ordered, although I would have loved to see something closer to 25-30 Dreamliners rather than the 19 they will have once all are delivered.

How about KE. How many Dreamliners are they getting? What will be the total number of A380s, 748is and 789s they will have once all orders are delivered?
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 3:47 pm

There is a difference between my "favorite" and my "most flown" airline which is United. I hope my FUTURE favorite airline is also my "most flown' airline and I am rooting for UA to transcend it's past and turn into an airline America can be proud of. In that regard I would like to see more orders (I don't think they have over ordered although I know many disagree about the A350) and clarity around current orders (which has been discussed here on about 1000 threads). What will replace the 767 and 757...and selfishly what I will be flying on out of Newark to Europe, Asia and deep South America. I'm 55 and don't want to be on a rickety 2 class 767 when I am 65...as much as I love a 767.
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 4:17 pm

I think it's fairly obvious to most folks on this site that the winner to a used airframe glut and price drop is going to be Delta and to some extent Lufthansa. American could also be a beneficiary to some degree but the obvious choice is and will be Delta. With Delta's Ops section it is the primary winner in this scenario. What still surprises me with Delta though is its decision to cancel the NW 788 orders. The 788 and the 789 just seemed like a dead nuts drop in replacement for the 80+ 767's in the fleet, especially the 763ER's. Obviously the A332/3's can do the job as well but it just still surprises me that the 788's were dropped altogether even after the postponements and fenaggling over the years after the merger. Perhaps DL will eventually pick up some second hand 788/9's and even perhaps purchase new ones but it's still amazing that they walked away from the line especially considering the 763's are averaging 20+ years old. Perhaps the irony is that DL will have to work with the ME carriers to pickup some of their used A338/9's, A35X's and even 788/9's. :cheeky:
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 4:19 pm

N292UX wrote:
My favorite: KLM, DL
KLM has only 21 on order, 1 773 and the rest being 787's.
DL has plenty on order... 739's, CS100, A321, A350, A339 (if they're actually delivered), and CR9's for Delta Connection


Did DL cancel it's 787 order?
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 4:21 pm

Boeing778X wrote:

The A350-900s will be an interesting thing to watch. While it would serve as a very fine 77E replacement, it does seem to add to a size bracket already well served by another type, the 789. And yes, for an airline the size, it's not uncommon for two aircraft like that to coexist, but when you factor in the cost of training, mechanics, FA, pilots, and then getting the aircraft that AA never ordered themselves, it doesn't really make sense, unless AA builds the fleet down the road.
.


This scenario reminds me of BA and the MD-11. BCal had placed an order for the MD-11 back in the 80s when the type was still under study. When in the late 80s, BCal merged into BA, the order was canceled not long after and BA decided to order the then all new 777 instead.
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 5:59 pm

The most over-ordered airlines across OEMs include Lion Air, AirAsia, IndiGo, VietJet and Avianca. By comparison, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines and United Airlines all look under-ordered. Delta, of course, is now well-known for using older aircraft on purpose.

I fully agree that Lion, Air Asia, IndiGo, Vietjet, and Avianca are over ordered. They have big expansion and growth plans and their orderbooks reflect optimistic growth figures. An economic downturn can really hurt those orderbooks. I have a feeling that Airbus and Boeing wanted their backlogs to grow and look optimistic so they booked big orders that likely have easy cancellation clauses. Very few airlines have had the sustained growth that long. I doubt all five could have growth trajectories like Southwest, Ryanair and China Southern have maintained.
 
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 6:25 pm

Both narrowbodies and widebodies are over ordered. We're seeing acceleration in the decline in resale values. Deals will be had for years to come.

The airlines who negotiated great deals will thrive despite the surplus. Those that didn't... Won't. 737NGs, according to rumors I believe, are going for $15 million less than 5 years ago (new). Same with A320CEOs. It is a brutal market.


SUNCTRY738 wrote:
I too think Delta especially will be interesting to watch. I can see them getting an incredible deal at some point on both a large NB order and a WB order in the next 5-10 years if some of the "over-orders" by others collapse. United also may pull an intetesting order with Kirby there at United now. Maybe Alaska also launches some major expansion through a block buster order.

DL is in the best position. Because of their history of buying used, they could buy a large number of surplus young aircraft.

Or... For the right deal they will buy new. The prices I've heard they paid for 749s and the C-series amazes me. Pratt will offer them a sweat deal for NEOs or C-series top off orders.

DL aligned themselves for this mark. So did LH.

It is a buyers market and will be until production rates, including Bombardier, drop. I believe Bombardier will Garner more orders. So it will be a long time for narrowbodies.

For widebodies, until Airbus gives up on the A330, there will also be a brutal market. Sad times ahead, but this is a cyclic industry.

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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 6:26 pm

deltadawg wrote:
I think it's fairly obvious to most folks on this site that the winner to a used airframe glut and price drop is going to be Delta and to some extent Lufthansa. American could also be a beneficiary to some degree but the obvious choice is and will be Delta. With Delta's Ops section it is the primary winner in this scenario. What still surprises me with Delta though is its decision to cancel the NW 788 orders. The 788 and the 789 just seemed like a dead nuts drop in replacement for the 80+ 767's in the fleet, especially the 763ER's. Obviously the A332/3's can do the job as well but it just still surprises me that the 788's were dropped altogether even after the postponements and fenaggling over the years after the merger. Perhaps DL will eventually pick up some second hand 788/9's and even perhaps purchase new ones but it's still amazing that they walked away from the line especially considering the 763's are averaging 20+ years old. Perhaps the irony is that DL will have to work with the ME carriers to pickup some of their used A338/9's, A35X's and even 788/9's. :cheeky:


I think Delta could really use some 787-9's at LAX. UAL has caught them with their pants down, I think, by launching LAX-SIN using the 787-9. Delta does not have a matching aircraft and won't anytime soon even with the arrival of the A350 which appears headed to DTW to replace the 744's.
 
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 6:34 pm

My favorite airline is of course WN but they frustrate me on their timidity on fleet decisions as they are looking at large growth of RPM's (over 8% in April) and losing 70 300 series by October 1st and they should be buying 700's like mad but only have 10 yet to be converted
 
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 6:50 pm

airtrantpa wrote:
N292UX wrote:
My favorite: KLM, DL
KLM has only 21 on order, 1 773 and the rest being 787's.
DL has plenty on order... 739's, CS100, A321, A350, A339 (if they're actually delivered), and CR9's for Delta Connection


Did DL cancel it's 787 order?


Yes. Cancelled early in 2016 or late 2015 if I recall correctly.
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 7:01 pm

Many folks questioned the logic of DL over the last several years for single aisle frames. If I recall correctly DL currently has around 70 A320's with an average age of 21+ years and the A319's number around 55-60 with an average age of 15-16 years old. Given DL's usual stance on life span the A320's should have another 8-10 years left which also means that either:
a) A replacement order is due very soon or
b) They will have to find replacements on the used market or
c) A combination of both (my money is on this option) - perhaps a C300 (for the smaller end of the 130+ range) order with a combination of vacated production slots from A or B and bargain basement purchases on the open market

This does not even take into account the retirements of the MadDogs of which number around 180. This is the part that really makes DL's position interesting because they are beginning the retirement of these air frames and replacing them with the 739 and A321 in actuality but they will still require more aircraft. DL needs approximately 250-300 new frames in the next 5-10 years just in the single aisle department.
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 7:28 pm

On the narrowbody side things will begin to tighten up (forgoing a global financial catastrophe). With WN done buying -700s and the retirement of their 733 fleet, their remaining fleet will see higher utilization till more -800s and the MAX are delivered. Will they purchase used -800s? Time will tell, however I think if that is the strategy they would have begun by now. So as they age out, the remaining worldwide -600 and -700 fleet will start to exit the market as parts now as their demand as complete airframes are gone.

On the Airbus side of things, the last of the Brazilian A318s are coming off lease (they've been stored for a bit) and are headed straight to the scrappers. Once these are exhausted, just about any A319 below SN 1200 is fair game. Heck, today I saw SN 2281 is headed off to the breakers. For a while any A320 below SN 450 was also fair game for scrap instead of refurbishment but lately those low SN frames are headed to Iran.

On the RJ side, we're seeing a big bubble of CRJ2 and E145s hit their cycle limits, which is currently getting backfilled by pulling less-used examples out of IGM and replacing them like for like. This is only sustainable for so long before they get replaced by larger newer RJs. On the east coast of the US, they're also replacing retired Dash8-100s.

Widebody wise it's interesting. Airbus is taking FOREVER on the A330 P2F program, but with less than a dozen orders i guess no rush. The scrapping of A330s will accelerate as the A340s are finished off in the desert as they provide many common parts. 767s will be a huge thorn in people's calculus as there are now 30 or so examples that really should have been retired and used as spares that are now hauling Amazon boxes all over the US. So ANA, JAL (minus the 5 newer frames sold to UPS for conversion), United and Delta will fly the wings off their remaining fleet before scrapping them for their own spares pools. The dropoff in the next 5 years will be interesting. For the 777- yeesh, I have no idea, but at least for the -200, it looks like carnage ahead.
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 7:32 pm

Won't WN be able to get a lot more utilization from their fleet just by flying red eyes?
 
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 7:36 pm

The 77x cancellations/delays from me3 will time up nicely with the mom ordering cycle and 77x availability with 773/a380 retirements globally (and a35k production availability) imho. Should be interesting.
 
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 7:48 pm

My favourite is LX. Too many? More like too few! CSeries is nice although delivery process is very slow. As far as longhaul concerns, I don't like the B77W. Next year the A35J will enter the market and meanwhile LX's flying a 90s design. 777 is such an oddball imho.
 
EIDL
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 8:09 pm

EI has two that are actually on order, and some 350s that they're probably never going to get. And generally expands shorthaul by taking one or two planes at a time from lessors at random; or via their franchise operation. Which itself hasn't ordered more than one or two at a go for some years

So they're not over-ordered for a significantly expanding airline

edit: forgot one was delivered, so they've one 330 on order.
 
WesternA318
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 8:24 pm

Favorite airline: ME. I dont even know what their order book looks like, if they have anything at all, nor do I know what their financial house of cards looks like.
 
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ER757
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 8:55 pm

parapente wrote:
Favourite airline (well local airline)BA not over ordered.
ME3?Its gonna be bloody Imho.
In general many large orders will be 'stretched' over time.But there will be some cancelations or at a minimum trading down.

If anything I think BA is under-ordered. They could use some more A-380's :duck:

My favorite is AS and I think they are about right in their ordered aircraft
 
rbavfan
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 9:02 pm

BENAir01 wrote:
My favorite is AA. One could say they over ordered 359s, because they don't want any, but that doesn't count. I'd say if anything they under ordered, especially 77Ws.


Fleet management changed and they are lookng at the A359 order. They did not over order them "because the don't want any" It was a different management.
 
rbavfan
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 9:10 pm

EddieDude wrote:
AM has a lot of 737MAX coming. Mostly -8s I think, but I am crossing my fingers that they will also get -9s. A few more 789s should also arrive soon. Seems this will allow them to get rid of their 737NG fleet and the last 2 77Es (these 2 may have already left, not sure). Regional-wise, their ERJ-145s will be replaced with E-170s and E-175s. Seems AM is neither over-ordered nor under-ordered, although I would have loved to see something closer to 25-30 Dreamliners rather than the 19 they will have once all are delivered.

How about KE. How many Dreamliners are they getting? What will be the total number of A380s, 748is and 789s they will have once all orders are delivered?


You do mean Aeromexico and not American?
 
ericm2031
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 9:33 pm

BA seems under ordered on the widebody side. Almost 100 747, 767, 77E's that will need replacements at some point but only about 40 widebody on order.

UA is way under on the narrowbody side. 550+ 737/757/319/320's but only 100 narrow bodies on order. They seem to be done ordering any current generation narrowbodies. I'm assuming they are probably waiting it out for the -10MAX and the NMA. Wouldn't be surprised if they ordered some more 787's, 77W's for the widebody side. And maybe an eventual 77X order based on their ULH ambitions they seem to be showing lately.
 
bw50505
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 10:13 pm

rbavfan wrote:
EddieDude wrote:
AM has a lot of 737MAX coming. Mostly -8s I think, but I am crossing my fingers that they will also get -9s. A few more 789s should also arrive soon. Seems this will allow them to get rid of their 737NG fleet and the last 2 77Es (these 2 may have already left, not sure). Regional-wise, their ERJ-145s will be replaced with E-170s and E-175s. Seems AM is neither over-ordered nor under-ordered, although I would have loved to see something closer to 25-30 Dreamliners rather than the 19 they will have once all are delivered.

How about KE. How many Dreamliners are they getting? What will be the total number of A380s, 748is and 789s they will have once all orders are delivered?


You do mean Aeromexico and not American?


Yes, AM- Aeromexico, AA-American Airlines.
 
FlyUSAir
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 10:16 pm

The airlines I follow closely are WN (who is one of my favorites and my most flown airline) and B6 (on my favorable side and 4th most flown after WN, DL, and AA).

WN has a bunch of 737 MAX 8's on order, along regular 737-800's and (so far) a few 737 MAX 7's. However they are retiring 75 737-300's, so I don't know where they are going to make up the capacity short term.

B6 has about 60 A321neo's on order along with some regular A321's and a few A320neo's. I don't know where their fleet is going in all honesty as the E190's are up for a fleet review and some of the A320's are getting up there in age. The A321 will definitely live a long future in the fleet but I'm unsure with the rest (and obviously most of the A320's are staying for a while).
A319/A320/A321/A333 712/732/733/734/735/737/738/752/753/762/763 C172 CR2/CR7/CR9 E145/E170/E175/E190
MD82/MD83/MD88/MD90 Q100/Q400
 
ericm2031
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 10:34 pm

FlyUSAir wrote:
WN has a bunch of 737 MAX 8's on order, along regular 737-800's and (so far) a few 737 MAX 7's. However they are retiring 75 737-300's, so I don't know where they are going to make up the capacity short term.


They scheduled 67 deliveries for this year (39 -800, 14 MAX8, 14 used -700's) so that covers a lot of it plus it is higher gauge than what is being retired. Another 43 firm deliveries planned for next year with 4 options available, plus anymore used -700s they can find on top of the 4 already planned for next year.
 
FlyUSAir
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 10:42 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
FlyUSAir wrote:
WN has a bunch of 737 MAX 8's on order, along regular 737-800's and (so far) a few 737 MAX 7's. However they are retiring 75 737-300's, so I don't know where they are going to make up the capacity short term.


They scheduled 67 deliveries for this year (39 -800, 14 MAX8, 14 used -700's) so that covers a lot of it plus it is higher gauge than what is being retired. Another 43 firm deliveries planned for next year with 4 options available, plus anymore used -700s they can find on top of the 4 already planned for next year.


Thanks for the info, didn't realize they were receiving that many. Plus you're right, these will be able to complete missions the -300's can't.
A319/A320/A321/A333 712/732/733/734/735/737/738/752/753/762/763 C172 CR2/CR7/CR9 E145/E170/E175/E190
MD82/MD83/MD88/MD90 Q100/Q400
 
BENAir01
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 11:20 pm

The 77W count is fine, in my opinion. 20x is perfect for the premium routes and markets. I see AA ordering the 777-9 at some point anyway, so if they need growth, additional units or open additional markets, the 779 might just be the way to go.[/quote]
The reason I say it may not have been enough is because AA seems to be really stretching the fleet for what it wants - I mean they will be pulling the plane off the SYD route so that they can start a different route (I'm sorry I'm blanking on which one right now, may have been DFW-GIG), but in an ideal world, AA would be able to operate more flights to LHR, have lots of flights to S. America, be able to keep a solid operation on its HKG routes, and still have some planes for SYD all with 77Ws.
Why is flying so expensive? And why is flying well so much more?
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Fri Jun 02, 2017 11:54 pm

EddieDude wrote:
AM has a lot of 737MAX coming. Mostly -8s I think, but I am crossing my fingers that they will also get -9s.

I personally don't think they''ll get MAX9, as the take-off performance at MEX would not help. Just my 1c.

Back to topic, yes I agree with the OP. I'm also thinking of someone else like Qantas' NEO order (maybe? Especially 45 A321neo seens to be a bit too much unless they really put them into Qantas mainline), some of the Chinese widebody orders (think of CZ's recent orders and HU's 787 orders). It would indeed be interesting to see in the next few years.
 
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afterburner
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Sat Jun 03, 2017 12:17 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
The most over-ordered airlines across OEMs include Lion Air, AirAsia, IndiGo, VietJet and Avianca. By comparison, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines and United Airlines all look under-ordered. Delta, of course, is now well-known for using older aircraft on purpose.

I fully agree that Lion, Air Asia, IndiGo, Vietjet, and Avianca are over ordered.

In my opinion the sensational numbers in aircraft orders by airlines such as Lion Air and AirAsia were just image-boosting advertisements for the airlines and the aircraft manufacturers alike. How many from that numbers were actually firm orders? Only a small percentage I believe. Also, those orders were for groups of airlines, not a single one.
 
VC10er
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Sat Jun 03, 2017 12:17 am

Who will be first to order a new frame MoM? That is a very exciting thing to think about.
To Most the Sky is The Limit, For me, the Sky is Home.
 
EddieDude
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Sat Jun 03, 2017 2:55 am

rbavfan wrote:
You do mean Aeromexico and not American?

Of course. AM will have 19 Dreamliners as I stated. AA will have way, way more haha. I ain't no fan of AA, although I must say that lately they seem to have improved based on very sporadic flights I have taken with them.

eamondzhang wrote:
personally don't think they''ll get MAX9, as the take-off performance at MEX would not help. Just my 1c.

Well, Volaris now has A321s after years of only A319s and A320s. Plus, the performance of the -9MAX should be way better than that of the -900 (NG). Even if AM wouldn't be able to use the 739MAX to JFK or so, it would find it very useful for shorter flights where they need more capacity than what the -8 would offer. I can see them flying from GDL to LAX/ONT/SJC/FAT/ORD, and depending on the season or day of the week from MEX to GDL/MTY/CUN/GUA/MIA/TIJ/LAX...
Upcoming flights:
April/May: AM MEX-SCL 788 (J), AM EZE-MEX 789 (J).
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Does Your Favorite Airline Have Too Many Planes On Order?

Sat Jun 03, 2017 3:11 am

afterburner wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
The most over-ordered airlines across OEMs include Lion Air, AirAsia, IndiGo, VietJet and Avianca. By comparison, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines and United Airlines all look under-ordered. Delta, of course, is now well-known for using older aircraft on purpose.

I fully agree that Lion, Air Asia, IndiGo, Vietjet, and Avianca are over ordered.

In my opinion the sensational numbers in aircraft orders by airlines such as Lion Air and AirAsia were just image-boosting advertisements for the airlines and the aircraft manufacturers alike. How many from that numbers were actually firm orders? Only a small percentage I believe. Also, those orders were for groups of airlines, not a single one.


The 400+ orders from both Air Asia and IndiGo resulted in big publicity. It allowed Airbus to show dominating market share and the airlines to look powerful. There is no way that either of the airlines had the financing lined up to pay even the typical 2-3% deposit on an order that big. I think it probably was image boosting advertising with little commitment from either the airline or manufacturer.

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