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klwright69
Posts: 2712
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Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Sun Jun 04, 2017 11:06 pm

The problems in Venezuela goes deeper than just "socialism." If you really want to be technical, the USA has elements of socialism and isn't purely capitalist anyway. Plenty of petro states don't have food riots either.
But that aside. Midweek flights to Venezuela on UA often only have 40 butts in seats on flights 1045 and 1046. Yes, I was curious enough to look before this announcement, to see if anyone was actually travelling to CCS these days. Flights on the weekend are only slightly better. There is no great mystery here.
UA decided that as long as the current government is in charge anyway, it'll never get better. That's key here. So who cares if Maduro won't allow them back. This is a for profit company after all.
Who knows if the flight would still be worth flying if the crews were overnighting in CCS? It's pretty grim.
I would love to go to Venezuela I hope it'll get better some day, and most importantly for the people there. I hope UA helps their staff in CCS!
 
dcajet
Posts: 4708
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Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Sun Jun 04, 2017 11:47 pm

klwright69 wrote:
I hope UA helps their staff in CCS!


Never a worse time to lose a job. I'd imagine most airport staff are third-party contracted staff like Swissport, so most may be able to move to some of the other airlines still serving CCS. Now, city office staff is a different thing, but I presume UA will return to CCS one day. The present mess can't last forever; but then again, the same (kind of) was said of Cuba right after Fidel took power, and here we are...
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
hoya
Posts: 547
Joined: Wed Jun 23, 2004 2:25 pm

Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Mon Jun 05, 2017 2:42 am

klwright69 wrote:
The problems in Venezuela goes deeper than just "socialism." If you really want to be technical, the USA has elements of socialism and isn't purely capitalist anyway. Plenty of petro states don't have food riots either.
But that aside. Midweek flights to Venezuela on UA often only have 40 butts in seats on flights 1045 and 1046. Yes, I was curious enough to look before this announcement, to see if anyone was actually travelling to CCS these days. Flights on the weekend are only slightly better. There is no great mystery here.
UA decided that as long as the current government is in charge anyway, it'll never get better. That's key here. So who cares if Maduro won't allow them back. This is a for profit company after all.
Who knows if the flight would still be worth flying if the crews were overnighting in CCS? It's pretty grim.
I would love to go to Venezuela I hope it'll get better some day, and most importantly for the people there. I hope UA helps their staff in CCS!


Abysmal loads, but why would UA send the 738 and not the smaller 737? Not much difference in costs? 737-700 availability?
Hoya Saxa!!
 
Aptivaboy
Posts: 933
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Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Mon Jun 05, 2017 5:02 am

Oh, come on...
Could you please explain why, then, none of the other airlines operating into Venezuela worries about this? Many send in widebodies without these worries.


I said, "I wonder," as in I was pondering the possibility. I did not state it was an absolute. However, as an economics instructor (with airlines and air travel as an area of emphasis within my course) I can tell you that nationalization does have a number of US companies privately worrying about investing in Venezuela going forward. I can guarantee you that US automakers will not be returning without serious guarantees any time soon after the GM nationalization issue, and many other companies will not enter that market, either.

You, along with several others here, seem to have no idea about the current situation in Venezuela, but that seems do little to deter you all from coming up with theories that have very little to do with reality.


Actually, it looks like the various "theories" discussed in this thread have pretty well hit the nail on the head. Venezuela is suffering under the yoke of a reactionary and inept socialist government that has squandered the nation's wealth and make poor economic and political decisions. Look Malev, I understand from your postings that you're in Venezuela and probably Venezuelan yourself. Please understand that no one is intending these posts to be personal attacks upon your country, in which you clearly have great pride. However, the reality is that counterattacking anyone who posts something negative about Venezuela doesn't really add to your position. Venezuela is an economic basket case, as others have pointed out, and may be fast descending into political anarchy. I truly hope that Venezuela can improve it's position and better care for the welfare of it's people, I really do. But, denying that there is a problem or attacking those who point out that there is one, won't make your case any stronger, nor wish these problems away. Since you have gone to great pains to point out that none of us here know what we're talking about, perhaps you could please supply us with a good, solid rundown of Venezuela's problems and how to fix them? I mean that sincerely, since you're there and would presumably have a better first hand grasp of the issue.

I hope you will take this in the very friendly spirit in which it is intended.
 
guillelds
Posts: 72
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Re: UA suspends CCS effective 7/1

Mon Jun 05, 2017 5:33 am

MalevTU134 wrote:
They fly to BOG, PTY, HAV on their own E190s, and for now to EZE as well, with a fuel stop at VVI. MAD is when they can convince somebody to wet-lease an aircraft to them. That is more or less the current situation, unless it has changed very recently.


Bog has been temporaly suspended by Conviasa
 
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OneSexyL1011
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Re: UA suspends CCS effective 7/1

Mon Jun 05, 2017 5:44 am

drdisque wrote:
OneSexyL1011 wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:

If I understand correctly, UA had been using a 757 on the IAH-CCS with an augmented crew. Loads were bad, so they switched to a 737. Since a 737 doesn't have a flat business class seat for a crew rest, they added a stop in AUA do a crew change. Crew can't stay in CCS for safety reasons. Loads are still low and it is only being flown a few times per week. At this point it makes sense giving up to n the route. It is high cost, low frequency and has low load factors.

UA/CO hasn't operated a 757 on CCS in years. Its been 737-700 and occasional -800 operations for almost a decade. The AUA stop was just implemented just a few months ago.


UA did briefly reinstate 757 service after the decision was made to stop overnighting crews in CCS, so that they could do augmented crew with a legal crew rest.

The AUA stop was added so they could downgauge back to a 737.

Ahh yes, you are correct. Forgot they brought it back for a short time earlier this year.
 
jmmadrid
Posts: 352
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Re: UA suspends CCS effective 7/1

Mon Jun 05, 2017 6:17 am

OneSexyL1011 wrote:
drdisque wrote:
OneSexyL1011 wrote:
UA/CO hasn't operated a 757 on CCS in years. Its been 737-700 and occasional -800 operations for almost a decade. The AUA stop was just implemented just a few months ago.


UA did briefly reinstate 757 service after the decision was made to stop overnighting crews in CCS, so that they could do augmented crew with a legal crew rest.

The AUA stop was added so they could downgauge back to a 737.

Ahh yes, you are correct. Forgot they brought it back for a short time earlier this year.


But that was another massive mistake. Flight timings were so bad, they didn´t allow any connections inwards or outwards IAH. I believe the flight landed at IAH after 9pm.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6193
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: UA suspends CCS effective 7/1

Mon Jun 05, 2017 9:02 am

jmmadrid wrote:
OneSexyL1011 wrote:
drdisque wrote:

UA did briefly reinstate 757 service after the decision was made to stop overnighting crews in CCS, so that they could do augmented crew with a legal crew rest.

The AUA stop was added so they could downgauge back to a 737.

Ahh yes, you are correct. Forgot they brought it back for a short time earlier this year.


But that was another massive mistake. Flight timings were so bad, they didn´t allow any connections inwards or outwards IAH. I believe the flight landed at IAH after 9pm.


They had no choice. They couldn't overnight their FA's.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
Bald1983
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Re: UA suspends CCS effective 7/1

Mon Jun 05, 2017 1:52 pm

Bald1983 wrote:
dcajet wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

They did listen to him - for about 30 years. Into the early 80s the GDP per capita in Venezuela was 2x what it was in Brazil, about 50% higher than Argentina, and about 70% higher than Chile. In fact, 1980's measure was nearly as high as Singapore. It's what Venezuela did after 1980 that contributed to the downfall.


The bonanza that you refer to was just a mirage that came out of the 70s oil crisis. As a result of it Venezuela and other oil-producing nations were swimming in cash. But in Venezuela that wealth was smoked away and by the 90s Chavez was staging a coup d'etat that saw him come to power through elections in 1998. A Chavez does not come out of the blue, but occurs in a society ripe with inequality and political ignorance.

A total failure of the local intelligentsia - not being able to develop the country past the cyclical oil-related wealth. One day the world will grow out of its oil dependence and what will Venezuela be left with? Lets not forget the stone age ended not because the world ran out of stones.


Oil will be around for a lot longer then you expect. The problems with Venezuela was that the Chavez gang squandered the wealth, enriched themselves, and then had to deal with the fact that the United States and others managed to find vast new sources of oil, putting pressure on them. More pressure was put in that we have become more efficient in using oil. The vast majority of the pressure is that the Chavez gang played a form of Robin Hood, but kept the vast majority of money for itself and its socialist adventures and used the rest to buy off support. Venezuela could still compete as it is cheaper to extract its reserves then using fracking, etc. However, the place is a basket case. Nothing good will happen to Venezuela until the socialists/communists are run out.
 
factsonly
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Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Mon Jun 05, 2017 2:07 pm

 
Aptivaboy
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Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Mon Jun 05, 2017 3:19 pm

Some more information from a Bloomberg article here, including the repatriation and write off issues that foreign carriers (AA and UA) are dealing with in Venezuela:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ng-in-july

I didn't see this article listed earlier in the thread, but if it was and I missed it, my apologies. There is also an interesting article on Venezuelan debt obligations below it on the same page (scroll down), as well.
 
MalevTU134
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Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Mon Jun 05, 2017 4:04 pm

ASQ400 wrote:
edgaren wrote:
Most crews overnighting in CCS stay in hotels adjacent to the airport, not in downtown ccs as such. As Malevtu134 said before risk for the crews is exaggerated here, I mean safety in ccs is not to be taken lightly but by no means it can be compared to Saigon. Airlines usually have good safety procedures set for their crews. One point where I support crews not wanting to come here is more on their health and well being aspect, in the unfortunate event of a car car crash, heart attack or any other health related instance, the resources to take care of those dont abound or at least to the level a more stable country would offer so it is a complicated situation not just the political unrest.

What about SGN are you referring to? It's not nearly as bad as Caracas

SGN is no longer Saigon, it is Ho Chi Minh City. I believe he was referring to the Saigon of the 70s, just before the North Vietnamese occupation.
Last edited by MalevTU134 on Mon Jun 05, 2017 4:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Mon Jun 05, 2017 4:12 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
ASQ400 wrote:
edgaren wrote:
Most crews overnighting in CCS stay in hotels adjacent to the airport, not in downtown ccs as such. As Malevtu134 said before risk for the crews is exaggerated here, I mean safety in ccs is not to be taken lightly but by no means it can be compared to Saigon. Airlines usually have good safety procedures set for their crews. One point where I support crews not wanting to come here is more on their health and well being aspect, in the unfortunate event of a car car crash, heart attack or any other health related instance, the resources to take care of those dont abound or at least to the level a more stable country would offer so it is a complicated situation not just the political unrest.

What about SGN are you referring to? It's not nearly as bad as Caracas

SGN is no longer Saigon, it is Ho Chi Minh City. I believe he was referring to the Saigon of te 70s, just before the North Vietnamese occupation.


Officially yes, but try calling it Ho Chi Minh City to any Vietnamese person in the US and youll get an ear full....
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
MIflyer12
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Re: UA suspends CCS effective 7/1

Mon Jun 05, 2017 5:13 pm

Bald1983 wrote:
The bonanza that you refer to was just a mirage that came out of the 70s oil crisis.


Nope. You can look at pre-70s oil crisis data, too. Please.

In 1972, Venezuela's GDP per capita was 2x Brazil's and more than 3x Colombia's.
 
ASQ400
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Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:56 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
ASQ400 wrote:
What about SGN are you referring to? It's not nearly as bad as Caracas

SGN is no longer Saigon, it is Ho Chi Minh City. I believe he was referring to the Saigon of te 70s, just before the North Vietnamese occupation.


Officially yes, but try calling it Ho Chi Minh City to any Vietnamese person in the US and youll get an ear full....

Which is why I used the airport code, as it has ties to Saigon (original name), but was retained through HCMC. It's more neutral than Saigon or HCMC
TLV, BRU, ZRH, CDG, FRA, EWR, JFK, DEN, SFO, AUS, RNO, SEA, YYC, YYZ, IAH, ATL, IAD, DCA, ORD, SJC, SNA
 
MalevTU134
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Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:10 pm

ASQ400 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
SGN is no longer Saigon, it is Ho Chi Minh City. I believe he was referring to the Saigon of te 70s, just before the North Vietnamese occupation.


Officially yes, but try calling it Ho Chi Minh City to any Vietnamese person in the US and youll get an ear full....

Which is why I used the airport code, as it has ties to Saigon (original name), but was retained through HCMC. It's more neutral than Saigon or HCMC

Anyway, I believe you got your explanation as to what the poster meant...
 
MalevTU134
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Re: UA suspends CCS effective 7/1

Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:14 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Bald1983 wrote:
The bonanza that you refer to was just a mirage that came out of the 70s oil crisis.


Nope. You can look at pre-70s oil crisis data, too. Please.

In 1972, Venezuela's GDP per capita was 2x Brazil's and more than 3x Colombia's.

As I said before, in that era, Chile was under its own socialist experiment with Salvador Allende, Colombia was basically an almost failed state where the government didn't have territorial control over great swathes of its territory due to guerrilla and narco activity, and Brazil was in the hands of a military junta that did the economy no good. Not hard for Venezuela to come out on top in that competition.
 
ASQ400
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Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:34 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
ASQ400 wrote:
edgaren wrote:
Most crews overnighting in CCS stay in hotels adjacent to the airport, not in downtown ccs as such. As Malevtu134 said before risk for the crews is exaggerated here, I mean safety in ccs is not to be taken lightly but by no means it can be compared to Saigon. Airlines usually have good safety procedures set for their crews. One point where I support crews not wanting to come here is more on their health and well being aspect, in the unfortunate event of a car car crash, heart attack or any other health related instance, the resources to take care of those dont abound or at least to the level a more stable country would offer so it is a complicated situation not just the political unrest.

What about SGN are you referring to? It's not nearly as bad as Caracas

SGN is no longer Saigon, it is Ho Chi Minh City. I believe he was referring to the Saigon of the 70s, just before the North Vietnamese occupation.

How was it much worse than the chaos in Caracas?
TLV, BRU, ZRH, CDG, FRA, EWR, JFK, DEN, SFO, AUS, RNO, SEA, YYC, YYZ, IAH, ATL, IAD, DCA, ORD, SJC, SNA
 
MalevTU134
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Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:59 pm

ASQ400 wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
ASQ400 wrote:
What about SGN are you referring to? It's not nearly as bad as Caracas

SGN is no longer Saigon, it is Ho Chi Minh City. I believe he was referring to the Saigon of the 70s, just before the North Vietnamese occupation.

How was it much worse than the chaos in Caracas?

Eeehh...have you seen the videos of people fleeing the US Embassy in helicopters, panic on the streets and so on? I'm talking Saigon... Caracas is a city where life passes normally, most of the time. It is dangerous, sure, very dangerous in some places, sure. You should avoid areas where protests are unfolding, no doubt. But it's not chaos. Come and see for yourself! I'll be happy to receive you. You will be just fine.
 
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Cyow
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Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Mon Jun 05, 2017 9:32 pm

Straw poll, which airline/route will drop Venezuela next? I'm thinking MIA will go 1x per day with AA very soon. Repatriating the $ is too much of a mess.
"Broadsword calling Danny Boy"
 
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tavong
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Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Mon Jun 05, 2017 9:32 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:



No offense to the poster looking for reasons for cancellation of the route...but you are searching for normalcy in a very abnormal situation.

Given the extremes of the situation, it is amazing (and testament to UA) that the flight lasted this long. The outside the box thinking of an AUA layover shows a real effort to make it work.

Well, again, I only live here in Venezuela, so what do I know.... But ponder that there are still a dozen or so foreign airlines that find ways to make CCS work, so I think I could be excused for wondering about the exact reason for the closure of this route, which has also been kindly provided by other posters above.


I really don´t know which "dozen" Airlines, since every one i remember has been pulling out of CCS. AV and CM has drastically reduced service and are now charging astronomically high fares on CCS, and the flights are still taking a loss, they never put the plug since the government has said very publicly that foreing airlines that choose to leave Venezuela will not be allowed to come back again (and neither CM or AV want to take that risk). For both of them (AV and CM) is more or less a future bet just in case the things change in Venezuela. UA can also direct people from BOG or PTY if they want.

Hope things get better there

Gus
SKBO
Just put me on any modern airliner and i will be happy, give me more star alliance miles and i will be a lot happier.
 
MalevTU134
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Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Mon Jun 05, 2017 10:50 pm

tavong wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:


No offense to the poster looking for reasons for cancellation of the route...but you are searching for normalcy in a very abnormal situation.

Given the extremes of the situation, it is amazing (and testament to UA) that the flight lasted this long. The outside the box thinking of an AUA layover shows a real effort to make it work.

Well, again, I only live here in Venezuela, so what do I know.... But ponder that there are still a dozen or so foreign airlines that find ways to make CCS work, so I think I could be excused for wondering about the exact reason for the closure of this route, which has also been kindly provided by other posters above.


I really don´t know which "dozen" Airlines, since every one i remember has been pulling out of CCS. AV and CM has drastically reduced service and are now charging astronomically high fares on CCS, and the flights are still taking a loss, they never put the plug since the government has said very publicly that foreing airlines that choose to leave Venezuela will not be allowed to come back again (and neither CM or AV want to take that risk). For both of them (AV and CM) is more or less a future bet just in case the things change in Venezuela. UA can also direct people from BOG or PTY if they want.

Hope things get better there

Gus
SKBO

Who told you AV and CM operate to Venezuela at a loss? Maduro has said that, yes, but what you say wouldn't be logical. If you believe that things won't improve while the current thugs are in power, the kind of "betting" you describe would be insane (the next government could not care less about what Maduro said or not, and will most probably let anybody return, as the local airlines will be in shambles), and you quit the market. If you stay, it's because you believe that you can make money even in today's environment. And Maduro didn't force anybody to serve several cities in Venezuela (as CM does), nor to do it from several countries (as both AV and CM do). If they were just staying to please Maduro, they would do what DL does: 1x weekly.

Oh, and the dozen or so foreign airlines that serve Venezuela (from the top of my head): AA, DL, AV, CM, BW, CU, TAME, AR (on and off), AF, TP, IB, UX, TK, Wingo, Aruba Airlines, Insel Air (or did they go bankrupt?)...
 
klwright69
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Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Tue Jun 06, 2017 1:16 am

I am surprised UA didn't even bother to do the flight once or twice a week. Besides UA would be able to return if they paid off the right people I am sure. But with things not getting better, they are just forgetting about it. The other show might drop with DL. Malev, do you work in the airline business there in Venezuela?
 
yv773p
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Joined: Thu Apr 17, 2014 4:00 pm

Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Tue Jun 06, 2017 1:48 am

Cyow wrote:
Straw poll, which airline/route will drop Venezuela next? I'm thinking MIA will go 1x per day with AA very soon. Repatriating the $ is too much of a mess.


http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ameri ... OI20160112

AA already wrote down it's debt in BVF and their flights to CCS are only sourced in US Dollars now.
Even the lazy jellyfish do it!
 
dcajet
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Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:31 am

Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Tue Jun 06, 2017 2:49 am

Cyow wrote:
Straw poll, which airline/route will drop Venezuela next? I'm thinking MIA will go 1x per day with AA very soon. Repatriating the $ is too much of a mess.


It will all depends on how the situation evolves. If there is a turn for the worse, it may no longer be possible to operate safely there. So far, the big problem for foreign airlines has been the economics of operating in Venezuela. Safety-wise, well it is manageable with the right precautions taken.

guillelds wrote:
Bog has been temporaly suspended by Conviasa


Hard to tell with Conviasa, but it appears that even the E190 flights it had been operating to EZE (to replace the Wamos ones) have been terminated too. No V0 flights there for over a week. That leaves AR as the sole operator of the EZE-CCS route with an A332 on Saturdays only. The flight operates via BOG on the return to allow for a crew change. Although AR no longer sells tickets in Venezuela, the tickets are sold in Argentina, or via international third party sites such as eDreams or Expedia, and are for emigrants out of the country mostly.

I am not sure if V0 E190s are leased or owned, but if leased, I am thinking they may want to keep them within Venezuela to avoid repossession by lessors. Conviasa does not have the best track record when it comes to aircraft lease payments.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
guyanam
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Re: UA suspends CCS effective 7/1

Tue Jun 06, 2017 4:19 am

Bald1983 wrote:
However, the place is a basket case. Nothing good will happen to Venezuela until the socialists/communists are run out.


As others have mentioned the socialists/communists didn't grow out of thin air. Those who really believe this are condemned to make the same mistakes that the pre Chavez regimes made, and we will once again see a Maduro type emerge.

The shanty towns that ringed Caracas in the 80s were forewarning of what was to come. The high degree of income inequality and the squandermania of the pre Chavez elites was definitely noticed by the masses. Which is why they rallied behind Chavez when he came on the scene.

It takes a true ostrich type creature to pretend as if all was well before Chavez.
 
Bald1983
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Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Tue Jun 06, 2017 4:54 am

klwright69 wrote:
The problems in Venezuela goes deeper than just "socialism." If you really want to be technical, the USA has elements of socialism and isn't purely capitalist anyway. Plenty of petro states don't have food riots either.
But that aside. Midweek flights to Venezuela on UA often only have 40 butts in seats on flights 1045 and 1046. Yes, I was curious enough to look before this announcement, to see if anyone was actually travelling to CCS these days. Flights on the weekend are only slightly better. There is no great mystery here.
UA decided that as long as the current government is in charge anyway, it'll never get better. That's key here. So who cares if Maduro won't allow them back. This is a for profit company after all.
Who knows if the flight would still be worth flying if the crews were overnighting in CCS? It's pretty grim.
I would love to go to Venezuela I hope it'll get better some day, and most importantly for the people there. I hope UA helps their staff in CCS!


The Chaves/Maduro governments are the reason Venezuela is a basket case. It is the result of Marxist government.
 
Bald1983
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Re: UA suspends CCS effective 7/1

Tue Jun 06, 2017 4:57 am

guyanam wrote:
Bald1983 wrote:
However, the place is a basket case. Nothing good will happen to Venezuela until the socialists/communists are run out.


As others have mentioned the socialists/communists didn't grow out of thin air. Those who really believe this are condemned to make the same mistakes that the pre Chavez regimes made, and we will once again see a Maduro type emerge.

The shanty towns that ringed Caracas in the 80s were forewarning of what was to come. The high degree of income inequality and the squandermania of the pre Chavez elites was definitely noticed by the masses. Which is why they rallied behind Chavez when he came on the scene.

It takes a true ostrich type creature to pretend as if all was well before Chavez.


NO one said all was well. However, as always happens when Marxists take power, they expropriate wealth and dribble a little to their supporters. The pocket most of it. Then, when they run out of money, things collapse. That is Chavez. The country was doing a lot better BEFORE Chavez took control.
 
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tavong
Posts: 709
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Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Tue Jun 06, 2017 1:24 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
tavong wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
Well, again, I only live here in Venezuela, so what do I know.... But ponder that there are still a dozen or so foreign airlines that find ways to make CCS work, so I think I could be excused for wondering about the exact reason for the closure of this route, which has also been kindly provided by other posters above.


I really don´t know which "dozen" Airlines, since every one i remember has been pulling out of CCS. AV and CM has drastically reduced service and are now charging astronomically high fares on CCS, and the flights are still taking a loss, they never put the plug since the government has said very publicly that foreing airlines that choose to leave Venezuela will not be allowed to come back again (and neither CM or AV want to take that risk). For both of them (AV and CM) is more or less a future bet just in case the things change in Venezuela. UA can also direct people from BOG or PTY if they want.

Hope things get better there

Gus
SKBO

Who told you AV and CM operate to Venezuela at a loss? Maduro has said that, yes, but what you say wouldn't be logical. If you believe that things won't improve while the current thugs are in power, the kind of "betting" you describe would be insane (the next government could not care less about what Maduro said or not, and will most probably let anybody return, as the local airlines will be in shambles), and you quit the market. If you stay, it's because you believe that you can make money even in today's environment. And Maduro didn't force anybody to serve several cities in Venezuela (as CM does), nor to do it from several countries (as both AV and CM do). If they were just staying to please Maduro, they would do what DL does: 1x weekly.

Oh, and the dozen or so foreign airlines that serve Venezuela (from the top of my head): AA, DL, AV, CM, BW, CU, TAME, AR (on and off), AF, TP, IB, UX, TK, Wingo, Aruba Airlines, Insel Air (or did they go bankrupt?)...


There you have a report that AV has USD 236 millions trapped in Venezuela and other airlines are taking huge losses on the routes.

http://www.elcolombiano.com/negocios/av ... -JL3683290

http://www.el-nacional.com/noticias/eco ... ela_105920

http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/econ ... rias-.aspx

http://www.producto.com.ve/pro/nacional ... es-d-lares

Sorry but i worked in two enterprises that decided to operate in Venezuela at loss "betting" that things will improve. Is not insane, is just that some enterprises decide to bet on future (or trying not to lose completely the money you have bet on something). I stand on my position, AV and CM don´t pull out completely since they still can reduce loses modifying the way they sell tickets but both airlines have downgraded, pulled out frecuencies. Like it or not, CCS still is a capital that many airlines cannot afford to lose, even if they are losing money (losing doesn´t equate to hemorraging money) and many possible can compensate with other routes or on the total airline bottom line, strategies are not just black routes stay and red routes get off.

Sorry if i spelled wrong here (i´m writing this very hasty)

Gus
SKBO
Just put me on any modern airliner and i will be happy, give me more star alliance miles and i will be a lot happier.
 
Bald1983
Posts: 623
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: UA suspends CCS effective 7/1

Tue Jun 06, 2017 2:01 pm

guyanam wrote:
Bald1983 wrote:
However, the place is a basket case. Nothing good will happen to Venezuela until the socialists/communists are run out.


As others have mentioned the socialists/communists didn't grow out of thin air. Those who really believe this are condemned to make the same mistakes that the pre Chavez regimes made, and we will once again see a Maduro type emerge.

The shanty towns that ringed Caracas in the 80s were forewarning of what was to come. The high degree of income inequality and the squandermania of the pre Chavez elites was definitely noticed by the masses. Which is why they rallied behind Chavez when he came on the scene.

It takes a true ostrich type creature to pretend as if all was well before Chavez.


All was better before Chavez. His solution was to wreck the economy; steal it for himself, and destroy any freedom the country had, such as the press, elections, etc. They still have elections, maybe not in the future, but they were hardly free.
 
MalevTU134
Posts: 2188
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Tue Jun 06, 2017 2:03 pm

tavong wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
tavong wrote:

I really don´t know which "dozen" Airlines, since every one i remember has been pulling out of CCS. AV and CM has drastically reduced service and are now charging astronomically high fares on CCS, and the flights are still taking a loss, they never put the plug since the government has said very publicly that foreing airlines that choose to leave Venezuela will not be allowed to come back again (and neither CM or AV want to take that risk). For both of them (AV and CM) is more or less a future bet just in case the things change in Venezuela. UA can also direct people from BOG or PTY if they want.

Hope things get better there

Gus
SKBO

Who told you AV and CM operate to Venezuela at a loss? Maduro has said that, yes, but what you say wouldn't be logical. If you believe that things won't improve while the current thugs are in power, the kind of "betting" you describe would be insane (the next government could not care less about what Maduro said or not, and will most probably let anybody return, as the local airlines will be in shambles), and you quit the market. If you stay, it's because you believe that you can make money even in today's environment. And Maduro didn't force anybody to serve several cities in Venezuela (as CM does), nor to do it from several countries (as both AV and CM do). If they were just staying to please Maduro, they would do what DL does: 1x weekly.

Oh, and the dozen or so foreign airlines that serve Venezuela (from the top of my head): AA, DL, AV, CM, BW, CU, TAME, AR (on and off), AF, TP, IB, UX, TK, Wingo, Aruba Airlines, Insel Air (or did they go bankrupt?)...


There you have a report that AV has USD 236 millions trapped in Venezuela and other airlines are taking huge losses on the routes.

http://www.elcolombiano.com/negocios/av ... -JL3683290

http://www.el-nacional.com/noticias/eco ... ela_105920

http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/econ ... rias-.aspx

http://www.producto.com.ve/pro/nacional ... es-d-lares

Sorry but i worked in two enterprises that decided to operate in Venezuela at loss "betting" that things will improve. Is not insane, is just that some enterprises decide to bet on future (or trying not to lose completely the money you have bet on something). I stand on my position, AV and CM don´t pull out completely since they still can reduce loses modifying the way they sell tickets but both airlines have downgraded, pulled out frecuencies. Like it or not, CCS still is a capital that many airlines cannot afford to lose, even if they are losing money (losing doesn´t equate to hemorraging money) and many possible can compensate with other routes or on the total airline bottom line, strategies are not just black routes stay and red routes get off.

Sorry if i spelled wrong here (i´m writing this very hasty)

Gus
SKBO

Nothing wrong with your spelling...but your reading comprehension in Spanish is more questionable. First of all, some of those articles you linked to are 3-4 years old. Secondly, all of them talk about the losses different airlines suffered in the past (they talk about AA, UA and AV, but virtually every airline that used to sell tickets in Venezuela were screwed by the chavista government, whether they flew here or not). None of the articles mention that airlines are running flights at a loss today. You may be aware, as has been stated upthread, that AA has written off almost 600 million USD that they rightly deem not recoverable from Venezuela. Nobody claims that these losses didn't happen. Nobody denies the facts. However, what you have to understand is that these losses no longer occur, simply because no foreign airline is selling tickets in Venezuela (there is one single exception, but that is insignificant to this discussion), and most haven't been selling in Venezuela for 2-3 years. So, they are no longer losing money by getting screwed by Maduro. And the losses were never operational losses. Most airlines' flights were, and are, quite profitable. CCS is actually a high yield destination, albeit the demand has fallen sharply in the last years due to the crisis and the ceasing of some government programs. But airlines have also reduced the supply of seats (some by pulling out completely, others by reducing frequency and aircraft size).

I don't know which enterprises you worked at or in which industry, but for the airline industry there is a threat, said outright by Maduro, that any airline that stops operating to Venezuela will never be allowed back into the country. Well, if you are losing money on your operations to Venezuela, you could either believe that conditions will improve under the current regime and sweat it out....or you could cut your losses and close shop, knowing fully well that this threat is gone the second the government is changed in one way or another. But not seeing any improvement on the horizon and still keeping a loss making operation is indeed insane.
 
edgaren
Posts: 115
Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2006 3:52 am

Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Tue Jun 06, 2017 2:13 pm

Ok guys sorry for misusing Saigon when I shouldve used Ho Chi Minh City, my bad really. This thread has gone way off topic, we could argue for days and still most people out of Venezuela would not get what is like to be here 100 % accurately, yes it is bad but its not a war zone yet. Given some comments some members have made so far, Im gonna outline some basic points;

1- Although therere many people who can hardly buy food there still plenty who have the means to travel.
2- Guys, International airlines havent sold a single ticket in BF in a year or longer.
3- Some airlines such as Copa and Avianca are operating at their own will and theyre not operating at a loss, there are now venezuelan diasporas scattered all thru South America and North America, who can finance their family travel expenses.
4- Theres still some corporate travel, albeit not to the level seen in years past.
5- Although the political and social unrest is evident, people somewhat go about their lives with some normalcy. We tend to avoid areas where protests are taking place, most businesses are operating at a intermittent or reduced schedule.

Hope this helps shed some light.
 
User avatar
aemoreira1981
Posts: 3611
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:17 am

Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Tue Jun 06, 2017 2:14 pm

Cyow wrote:
Straw poll, which airline/route will drop Venezuela next? I'm thinking MIA will go 1x per day with AA very soon. Repatriating the $ is too much of a mess.


MIA is close enough to CCS where the crew can go in and out and there is no need to overnight any crew. However, I could see that going to American Eagle soon.

As for UA, it has been using a 737-700 on weekdays (IAH departure) and a 737-900ER on weekends (IAH departure).

I predict that a Latin American or European carrier will be next to drop out...probably TAP Portugal or Aerolineas Argentinas.
 
MalevTU134
Posts: 2188
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Tue Jun 06, 2017 2:34 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
Cyow wrote:
Straw poll, which airline/route will drop Venezuela next? I'm thinking MIA will go 1x per day with AA very soon. Repatriating the $ is too much of a mess.


MIA is close enough to CCS where the crew can go in and out and there is no need to overnight any crew. However, I could see that going to American Eagle soon.

As for UA, it has been using a 737-700 on weekdays (IAH departure) and a 737-900ER on weekends (IAH departure).

I predict that a Latin American or European carrier will be next to drop out...probably TAP Portugal or Aerolineas Argentinas.

Not sure about that. TP are having good loads out of CCS and fares are crazy high. Just checked a ticket to ARN, got quoted 2200 USD rt in economy on them.

AR? Could be, but Conviasa's stopping their EZE flights must be a blessing for AR's operations to CCS, as a lot of Venezuelans emigrate to Argentina, and AR is now their only direct option.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 3860
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Tue Jun 06, 2017 4:59 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
Cyow wrote:
Straw poll, which airline/route will drop Venezuela next? I'm thinking MIA will go 1x per day with AA very soon. Repatriating the $ is too much of a mess.


MIA is close enough to CCS where the crew can go in and out and there is no need to overnight any crew. However, I could see that going to American Eagle soon.


Won't happen. The Venezuelan bureaucracy will never approve the paperwork needed to make the switch to Republic. It's either mainline or nothing...
 
dcajet
Posts: 4708
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:31 am

Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Tue Jun 06, 2017 10:27 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
Cyow wrote:
Straw poll, which airline/route will drop Venezuela next? I'm thinking MIA will go 1x per day with AA very soon. Repatriating the $ is too much of a mess.


MIA is close enough to CCS where the crew can go in and out and there is no need to overnight any crew. However, I could see that going to American Eagle soon.

As for UA, it has been using a 737-700 on weekdays (IAH departure) and a 737-900ER on weekends (IAH departure).

I predict that a Latin American or European carrier will be next to drop out...probably TAP Portugal or Aerolineas Argentinas.

Not sure about that. TP are having good loads out of CCS and fares are crazy high. Just checked a ticket to ARN, got quoted 2200 USD rt in economy on them.

AR? Could be, but Conviasa's stopping their EZE flights must be a blessing for AR's operations to CCS, as a lot of Venezuelans emigrate to Argentina, and AR is now their only direct option.


R/T CCS to EZE on AR (not available for sale in Venezuela, must be ticketed and paid in another country) is being quoted today at ~US$1,350.00.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
guyanam
Posts: 3076
Joined: Thu Mar 04, 2010 6:21 pm

Re: UA suspends CCS effective 7/1

Wed Jun 07, 2017 7:25 am

Bald1983 wrote:
NO one said all was well. However, as always happens when Marxists take power, they expropriate wealth and dribble a little to their supporters. The pocket most of it. Then, when they run out of money, things collapse. That is Chavez. The country was doing a lot better BEFORE Chavez took control.



Take note that Costa Rica doesn't have a left wing fascist regime. I suggest that the blame is put where it belongs. The kleptocrats who created a highly unequal society and who squandered their wealth in Miami assets.

I don't favor Chavez/Maduro but the weeping of the old Venezuelan oligarchs is boring. Like the Tsars of old Russia, or the pre Revolution French royalty, they are responsible for the terror which followed.

I will hope that Costa Rica becomes an example that they will follow when Maduro is sent packing. Otherwise we will see the return of another Maduro.
 
User avatar
tavong
Posts: 709
Joined: Thu Jul 05, 2001 1:59 am

Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Wed Jun 07, 2017 1:32 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
tavong wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
Who told you AV and CM operate to Venezuela at a loss? Maduro has said that, yes, but what you say wouldn't be logical. If you believe that things won't improve while the current thugs are in power, the kind of "betting" you describe would be insane (the next government could not care less about what Maduro said or not, and will most probably let anybody return, as the local airlines will be in shambles), and you quit the market. If you stay, it's because you believe that you can make money even in today's environment. And Maduro didn't force anybody to serve several cities in Venezuela (as CM does), nor to do it from several countries (as both AV and CM do). If they were just staying to please Maduro, they would do what DL does: 1x weekly.

Oh, and the dozen or so foreign airlines that serve Venezuela (from the top of my head): AA, DL, AV, CM, BW, CU, TAME, AR (on and off), AF, TP, IB, UX, TK, Wingo, Aruba Airlines, Insel Air (or did they go bankrupt?)...


There you have a report that AV has USD 236 millions trapped in Venezuela and other airlines are taking huge losses on the routes.

http://www.elcolombiano.com/negocios/av ... -JL3683290

http://www.el-nacional.com/noticias/eco ... ela_105920

http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/econ ... rias-.aspx

http://www.producto.com.ve/pro/nacional ... es-d-lares

Sorry but i worked in two enterprises that decided to operate in Venezuela at loss "betting" that things will improve. Is not insane, is just that some enterprises decide to bet on future (or trying not to lose completely the money you have bet on something). I stand on my position, AV and CM don´t pull out completely since they still can reduce loses modifying the way they sell tickets but both airlines have downgraded, pulled out frecuencies. Like it or not, CCS still is a capital that many airlines cannot afford to lose, even if they are losing money (losing doesn´t equate to hemorraging money) and many possible can compensate with other routes or on the total airline bottom line, strategies are not just black routes stay and red routes get off.

Sorry if i spelled wrong here (i´m writing this very hasty)

Gus
SKBO

Nothing wrong with your spelling...but your reading comprehension in Spanish is more questionable. First of all, some of those articles you linked to are 3-4 years old. Secondly, all of them talk about the losses different airlines suffered in the past (they talk about AA, UA and AV, but virtually every airline that used to sell tickets in Venezuela were screwed by the chavista government, whether they flew here or not). None of the articles mention that airlines are running flights at a loss today. You may be aware, as has been stated upthread, that AA has written off almost 600 million USD that they rightly deem not recoverable from Venezuela. Nobody claims that these losses didn't happen. Nobody denies the facts. However, what you have to understand is that these losses no longer occur, simply because no foreign airline is selling tickets in Venezuela (there is one single exception, but that is insignificant to this discussion), and most haven't been selling in Venezuela for 2-3 years. So, they are no longer losing money by getting screwed by Maduro. And the losses were never operational losses. Most airlines' flights were, and are, quite profitable. CCS is actually a high yield destination, albeit the demand has fallen sharply in the last years due to the crisis and the ceasing of some government programs. But airlines have also reduced the supply of seats (some by pulling out completely, others by reducing frequency and aircraft size).

I don't know which enterprises you worked at or in which industry, but for the airline industry there is a threat, said outright by Maduro, that any airline that stops operating to Venezuela will never be allowed back into the country. Well, if you are losing money on your operations to Venezuela, you could either believe that conditions will improve under the current regime and sweat it out....or you could cut your losses and close shop, knowing fully well that this threat is gone the second the government is changed in one way or another. But not seeing any improvement on the horizon and still keeping a loss making operation is indeed insane.


Tossing aside you personal attack. There you have some 2016-2017 links.

http://gerente.com/ve/aerolineas-tienen ... controles/

http://www.notitarde.com/aerolineas-sig ... 2/1049505/

http://www.prensa.com/economia/Copa-Air ... 97985.html

The fact that they "adapted" doesn´t mean that they are making profits, they are minimizing loses, for you it´s insane, but that´s the reality.

Gus
SKBO
Just put me on any modern airliner and i will be happy, give me more star alliance miles and i will be a lot happier.
 
MalevTU134
Posts: 2188
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: UA suspends CCS effective 7/1

Wed Jun 07, 2017 1:38 pm

guyanam wrote:
Bald1983 wrote:
NO one said all was well. However, as always happens when Marxists take power, they expropriate wealth and dribble a little to their supporters. The pocket most of it. Then, when they run out of money, things collapse. That is Chavez. The country was doing a lot better BEFORE Chavez took control.



Take note that Costa Rica doesn't have a left wing fascist regime. I suggest that the blame is put where it belongs. The kleptocrats who created a highly unequal society and who squandered their wealth in Miami assets.

I don't favor Chavez/Maduro but the weeping of the old Venezuelan oligarchs is boring. Like the Tsars of old Russia, or the pre Revolution French royalty, they are responsible for the terror which followed.

I will hope that Costa Rica becomes an example that they will follow when Maduro is sent packing. Otherwise we will see the return of another Maduro.

Or Norway? A lot further from Venezuela culturally, but in terms of what to do with the oil wealth, how not to invest it all at once in the country but rather save most of it for future generations, and let the economy diversify, how to build strong institutions and erradicate poverty and corruption...that and a lot more could be taken straight out of the book of Norway. In fact, Chavez had that opportunity. He was given a carte blanche by the masses to do something - anything - with the country, just to improve it....and instead of looking to progressive countries like Norway, New Zealand or Canada, he looked to Cuba...
 
Bald1983
Posts: 623
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: UA suspends CCS effective 7/1

Wed Jun 07, 2017 2:02 pm

guyanam wrote:
Bald1983 wrote:
NO one said all was well. However, as always happens when Marxists take power, they expropriate wealth and dribble a little to their supporters. The pocket most of it. Then, when they run out of money, things collapse. That is Chavez. The country was doing a lot better BEFORE Chavez took control.



Take note that Costa Rica doesn't have a left wing fascist regime. I suggest that the blame is put where it belongs. The kleptocrats who created a highly unequal society and who squandered their wealth in Miami assets.

I don't favor Chavez/Maduro but the weeping of the old Venezuelan oligarchs is boring. Like the Tsars of old Russia, or the pre Revolution French royalty, they are responsible for the terror which followed.

I will hope that Costa Rica becomes an example that they will follow when Maduro is sent packing. Otherwise we will see the return of another Maduro.


Chavez was also a kleptocrat.
 
MalevTU134
Posts: 2188
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Wed Jun 07, 2017 2:09 pm

tavong wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
tavong wrote:

There you have a report that AV has USD 236 millions trapped in Venezuela and other airlines are taking huge losses on the routes.

http://www.elcolombiano.com/negocios/av ... -JL3683290

http://www.el-nacional.com/noticias/eco ... ela_105920

http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/econ ... rias-.aspx

http://www.producto.com.ve/pro/nacional ... es-d-lares

Sorry but i worked in two enterprises that decided to operate in Venezuela at loss "betting" that things will improve. Is not insane, is just that some enterprises decide to bet on future (or trying not to lose completely the money you have bet on something). I stand on my position, AV and CM don´t pull out completely since they still can reduce loses modifying the way they sell tickets but both airlines have downgraded, pulled out frecuencies. Like it or not, CCS still is a capital that many airlines cannot afford to lose, even if they are losing money (losing doesn´t equate to hemorraging money) and many possible can compensate with other routes or on the total airline bottom line, strategies are not just black routes stay and red routes get off.

Sorry if i spelled wrong here (i´m writing this very hasty)

Gus
SKBO

Nothing wrong with your spelling...but your reading comprehension in Spanish is more questionable. First of all, some of those articles you linked to are 3-4 years old. Secondly, all of them talk about the losses different airlines suffered in the past (they talk about AA, UA and AV, but virtually every airline that used to sell tickets in Venezuela were screwed by the chavista government, whether they flew here or not). None of the articles mention that airlines are running flights at a loss today. You may be aware, as has been stated upthread, that AA has written off almost 600 million USD that they rightly deem not recoverable from Venezuela. Nobody claims that these losses didn't happen. Nobody denies the facts. However, what you have to understand is that these losses no longer occur, simply because no foreign airline is selling tickets in Venezuela (there is one single exception, but that is insignificant to this discussion), and most haven't been selling in Venezuela for 2-3 years. So, they are no longer losing money by getting screwed by Maduro. And the losses were never operational losses. Most airlines' flights were, and are, quite profitable. CCS is actually a high yield destination, albeit the demand has fallen sharply in the last years due to the crisis and the ceasing of some government programs. But airlines have also reduced the supply of seats (some by pulling out completely, others by reducing frequency and aircraft size).

I don't know which enterprises you worked at or in which industry, but for the airline industry there is a threat, said outright by Maduro, that any airline that stops operating to Venezuela will never be allowed back into the country. Well, if you are losing money on your operations to Venezuela, you could either believe that conditions will improve under the current regime and sweat it out....or you could cut your losses and close shop, knowing fully well that this threat is gone the second the government is changed in one way or another. But not seeing any improvement on the horizon and still keeping a loss making operation is indeed insane.


Tossing aside you personal attack. There you have some 2016-2017 links.

http://gerente.com/ve/aerolineas-tienen ... controles/

http://www.notitarde.com/aerolineas-sig ... 2/1049505/

http://www.prensa.com/economia/Copa-Air ... 97985.html

The fact that they "adapted" doesn´t mean that they are making profits, they are minimizing loses, for you it´s insane, but that´s the reality.

Gus
SKBO

This discussion is meaningless. You can go around believing what you want. But:
The first article you link to talks about domestic flights, not a word on foreign airlines.
The second mentions the 3800 million USD that the airlines have locked, or rather lost, due to the currency exchange controls, along with some sweeping comments from the regional head of IATA about airlines staying out of commitment. It's simply whining (even if it's rightfully so). Why would Venezuela be any different from other markets, where airlines are cutting unprofitable or not-so-profitable routes without blinking? What is the commitment of AF, TP or AR with Venezuela or the Maduro regime? Maybe you could argue that IB has commitment for historical ties, or CU for political ones? But I can assure you that multi-million decisions in airlines HQs are not taken based on "commitments to fly"....well, actually, in CU's HQ they are....
The third article is about CM's historical debt of 400 million USD, and its CEO saying that they are monitoring the situation closely and downgauging equipment in low season. And that they are in Venezuela for the long run. Nowhere does it say that current operations run at a loss. And about the time that article was written, or a bit afterwards maybe, Copa Colombia started BOG-CCS flights...
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6193
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Wed Jun 07, 2017 3:19 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
Cyow wrote:
Straw poll, which airline/route will drop Venezuela next? I'm thinking MIA will go 1x per day with AA very soon. Repatriating the $ is too much of a mess.


MIA is close enough to CCS where the crew can go in and out and there is no need to overnight any crew. However, I could see that going to American Eagle soon.

As for UA, it has been using a 737-700 on weekdays (IAH departure) and a 737-900ER on weekends (IAH departure).

I predict that a Latin American or European carrier will be next to drop out...probably TAP Portugal or Aerolineas Argentinas.

Not sure about that. TP are having good loads out of CCS and fares are crazy high. Just checked a ticket to ARN, got quoted 2200 USD rt in economy on them.

AR? Could be, but Conviasa's stopping their EZE flights must be a blessing for AR's operations to CCS, as a lot of Venezuelans emigrate to Argentina, and AR is now their only direct option.


Not at all a good way to measure the success of a flight. The fares from IAH-CCS were also sky high.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
MalevTU134
Posts: 2188
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Wed Jun 07, 2017 5:45 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:

MIA is close enough to CCS where the crew can go in and out and there is no need to overnight any crew. However, I could see that going to American Eagle soon.

As for UA, it has been using a 737-700 on weekdays (IAH departure) and a 737-900ER on weekends (IAH departure).

I predict that a Latin American or European carrier will be next to drop out...probably TAP Portugal or Aerolineas Argentinas.

Not sure about that. TP are having good loads out of CCS and fares are crazy high. Just checked a ticket to ARN, got quoted 2200 USD rt in economy on them.

AR? Could be, but Conviasa's stopping their EZE flights must be a blessing for AR's operations to CCS, as a lot of Venezuelans emigrate to Argentina, and AR is now their only direct option.


Not at all a good way to measure the success of a flight. The fares from IAH-CCS were also sky high.

You are absolutely right, of course. But you should come down to Maiquetía some day when TP flies out of here and see the line at their check-in, then multiply that with the sky-high fares, and you'll be convinced. From what other posters has stated, UA has 40-50 pax on their IAH-CCS flights.
 
ScottB
Posts: 7064
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Wed Jun 07, 2017 5:54 pm

klwright69 wrote:
It is telling how bad things are when UA leaves. UA is a stalwart to Latin America from the USA, and has always stuck it out in regards to CCS.
IAH-CCS should be a survivor. A route between two oil oriented destinations should not fail even in the worst of times.
If things get even worse there, and UA were to stay, flights that now carry 40 or 50 passengers would carry even fewer still.


Yes, a route between two oil industry centers ought to do well, but there are key factors which have led to the decline (and likely further deterioration) of the IAH-CCS market. Expropriation of foreign company assets by the Venezuelan government and the country's currency crisis have combined to destroy most demand to Venezuela from U.S. oil & oil field services companies. Additionally, it is quite likely that PdVSA will lose control of CITGO in the near future as a result of legal judgements related to expropriation of assets held by U.S. nationals as well as defaults on bonds for which equity in CITGO was pledged as collateral.

And UA has reasonable fall-back options by way of routing passengers via PTY & BOG on CM & AV. Arguably a connection at PTY is far more convenient than MIA or ATL.

MalevTU134 wrote:
Or Norway? A lot further from Venezuela culturally, but in terms of what to do with the oil wealth, how not to invest it all at once in the country but rather save most of it for future generations, and let the economy diversify, how to build strong institutions and erradicate poverty and corruption...that and a lot more could be taken straight out of the book of Norway.


While the experience of Norway with respect to oil wealth has indeed been different, it's also important to remember that the population of Norway is roughly one-sixth that of Venezuela (proportionally there was more oil wealth to go around per capita) and Norway was already relatively industrialized and had strong democratic institutions at the time that oil was discovered. Venezuela's oil wealth was never large enough to bring the entire nation out of poverty, even if the upper class in Venezuela hadn't been successful in keeping most of the prosperity for itself. The same is true of most of the petro-states in the Middle East -- the populations of those countries are generally small enough that the government can provide a lavish lifestyle for its citizens while also squirreling away cash/investments for the day when the oil runs out (or no one wants it anymore).

guyanam wrote:
Take note that Costa Rica doesn't have a left wing fascist regime. I suggest that the blame is put where it belongs. The kleptocrats who created a highly unequal society and who squandered their wealth in Miami assets.


One could argue that perhaps the oil money has been a double-edged sword, in that the government & elites felt less of a need to encourage foreign investment which would lead to greater prosperity & employment, as has happened in Costa Rica, Panama, Chile, etc.
 
MalevTU134
Posts: 2188
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Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Wed Jun 07, 2017 6:08 pm

ScottB wrote:
[


MalevTU134 wrote:
Or Norway? A lot further from Venezuela culturally, but in terms of what to do with the oil wealth, how not to invest it all at once in the country but rather save most of it for future generations, and let the economy diversify, how to build strong institutions and erradicate poverty and corruption...that and a lot more could be taken straight out of the book of Norway.


While the experience of Norway with respect to oil wealth has indeed been different, it's also important to remember that the population of Norway is roughly one-sixth that of Venezuela (proportionally there was more oil wealth to go around per capita) and Norway was already relatively industrialized and had strong democratic institutions at the time that oil was discovered. Venezuela's oil wealth was never large enough to bring the entire nation out of poverty, even if the upper class in Venezuela hadn't been successful in keeping most of the prosperity for itself. The same is true of most of the petro-states in the Middle East -- the populations of those countries are generally small enough that the government can provide a lavish lifestyle for its citizens while also squirreling away cash/investments for the day when the oil runs out (or no one wants it anymore).


One could argue that perhaps the oil money has been a double-edged sword, in that the government & elites felt less of a need to encourage foreign investment which would lead to greater prosperity & employment, as has happened in Costa Rica, Panama, Chile, etc.

While you are correct on the differences with Norway and also on oil being a double-edged sword, you are aware that Venezuela harbours the largest known oil reserves of any country? Larger than Saudi Arabia or Russia. And that it is relatively easily extractable? Certainly more so than that of Norway, which is all off-shore. So, Venezuela should indeed be able to treat its 30 million citizens like those of Abu Dhabi or Qatar are treated, for example, if only they hadn't (and still do today, more than ever) squandered, stolen and given that wealth away. This is the greatest tragedy of all in this saga. Instead of a Dubai, Caracas resembles a Lagos nowadays, just more violent. (Apologies to the residents of Lagos for the comparison.)
 
ScottB
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Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Wed Jun 07, 2017 9:04 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
While you are correct on the differences with Norway and also on oil being a double-edged sword, you are aware that Venezuela harbours the largest known oil reserves of any country? Larger than Saudi Arabia or Russia. And that it is relatively easily extractable? Certainly more so than that of Norway, which is all off-shore. So, Venezuela should indeed be able to treat its 30 million citizens like those of Abu Dhabi or Qatar are treated, for example, if only they hadn't (and still do today, more than ever) squandered, stolen and given that wealth away. This is the greatest tragedy of all in this saga. Instead of a Dubai, Caracas resembles a Lagos nowadays, just more violent. (Apologies to the residents of Lagos for the comparison.)


Not all oil is created equal; Venezuelan crude is more heavy and sour than most sources of petroleum, which makes it more costly to recover and refine for a lesser quantity of refined product (Venezuela's cost to produce one barrel of oil is nearly three times Saudi Arabia's cost). Venezuelan production has also long been far below that of Saudi Arabia, even before production went into decline under Chavismo due to the installation of completely unqualified cronies into PdVSA's extraction operations. So while the oil industry has long produced billions of dollars per year of profit for Venezuela, the oil money there has always been a small fraction of that which flows into Saudi Arabia.

Venezuela exported $20 billion worth of crude oil last year. Just dividing up that money among all Venezuelan citizens (31 million) and ignoring the production costs would only amount to $650/person -- nowhere near enough to support lavish lifestyles akin to KSA or the Gulf countries.
 
MalevTU134
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Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Wed Jun 07, 2017 9:27 pm

ScottB wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
While you are correct on the differences with Norway and also on oil being a double-edged sword, you are aware that Venezuela harbours the largest known oil reserves of any country? Larger than Saudi Arabia or Russia. And that it is relatively easily extractable? Certainly more so than that of Norway, which is all off-shore. So, Venezuela should indeed be able to treat its 30 million citizens like those of Abu Dhabi or Qatar are treated, for example, if only they hadn't (and still do today, more than ever) squandered, stolen and given that wealth away. This is the greatest tragedy of all in this saga. Instead of a Dubai, Caracas resembles a Lagos nowadays, just more violent. (Apologies to the residents of Lagos for the comparison.)


Not all oil is created equal; Venezuelan crude is more heavy and sour than most sources of petroleum, which makes it more costly to recover and refine for a lesser quantity of refined product (Venezuela's cost to produce one barrel of oil is nearly three times Saudi Arabia's cost). Venezuelan production has also long been far below that of Saudi Arabia, even before production went into decline under Chavismo due to the installation of completely unqualified cronies into PdVSA's extraction operations. So while the oil industry has long produced billions of dollars per year of profit for Venezuela, the oil money there has always been a small fraction of that which flows into Saudi Arabia.

Venezuela exported $20 billion worth of crude oil last year. Just dividing up that money among all Venezuelan citizens (31 million) and ignoring the production costs would only amount to $650/person -- nowhere near enough to support lavish lifestyles akin to KSA or the Gulf countries.

Yes, you are absolutely right. I think we are saying the same thing in different ways. You are correct about the current state of affairs at PDVSA, and that number of 20 billion is down 70% since 2012. Sure, some of that is due to the fall in the price of crude, but also due to lack of investment, and most importantly foreign investment, as a result of the expropriations and other bad treatment that foreign investors have suffered from the Chávez and Maduro governments in the past (and currently, should they be as unwise as to return). And that's exactly my point (and I guess yours, too?), that this number could and should be a lot higher, if only the current mismanagement of the industry, along with its looting by the kleptocrats would end.
 
guyanam
Posts: 3076
Joined: Thu Mar 04, 2010 6:21 pm

Re: UA suspends CCS effective 7/1

Thu Jun 08, 2017 4:32 am

MalevTU134 wrote:
and instead of looking to progressive countries like Norway, New Zealand or Canada, he looked to Cuba...



The pre Chavez oligarchs didn't look to those countries. They left Venezuela with a horrendous income inequality issue. Then Chavez came along.

Folks need to cease thinking that Chavez appeared out of nowhere. At his death the man was still extremely popular, meaning that the oligarchs clearly failed to impress.

I suggest that when people see where Venezuela went wrong they become more complete in their analysis.
 
guyanam
Posts: 3076
Joined: Thu Mar 04, 2010 6:21 pm

Re: UA suspends CCS (Caracas) effective 7/1

Thu Jun 08, 2017 4:39 am

MalevTU134 wrote:
, Caracas resembles a Lagos nowadays, just more violent. (Apologies to the residents of Lagos for the comparison.)


Which was my reaction when I saw it in 1988 and of course the large shanty towns ringing the city. Those who claim that Venezuela was a normal country then ought to stop fooling themselves. The hotel workers were full of talk about the ones who they called the "rich white ones" (they had a name for those group which I cannot recall). These are the ones who voted for Chavez up until his death. They had their reasons why they did so, and folks need to be honest about the reasons why.
 
MalevTU134
Posts: 2188
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: UA suspends CCS effective 7/1

Thu Jun 08, 2017 5:35 am

guyanam wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
and instead of looking to progressive countries like Norway, New Zealand or Canada, he looked to Cuba...



The pre Chavez oligarchs didn't look to those countries. They left Venezuela with a horrendous income inequality issue. Then Chavez came along.

Folks need to cease thinking that Chavez appeared out of nowhere. At his death the man was still extremely popular, meaning that the oligarchs clearly failed to impress.

I suggest that when people see where Venezuela went wrong they become more complete in their analysis.

Absolutely. This is THE most important and essential analysis that will have to be made once all this debacle and failed social(ist) experiment is over: How on earth could a totalitarian, narcissistic, populist liar (sounds familiar to the folks in the US?) come to power? What was the reason for the desperation the Venezuelans felt? How come that yet another people fell for the "nothing can be worse than what we already have" fallacy of thought, when it was clearly shown by history in cases like the Soviet Union, Germany, China, Cambodia, North Korea, Cuba, Zimbabwe and many other countries, that things can always get a lot worse unless you think twice about what you wish (and vote or fight) for? How can we make entire populations and peoples learn from other peoples' mistakes, so they don't have to commit their own?

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