WPvsMW wrote:

Of U.S. interest... the USN 5th Fleet, including a carrier strike group, and US CENTCOM, is based in Bahrain. So... no shortage of surveillance.

USCENTCOM is based at MacDill AFBin Tampa, FL

If airspace is included, QR's flights to Africa will be particularly badly hit - sure, they can fly north, over Bandar Abbas, and out over the Arabian Sea; fine if you're flying to Mumbai and even Asia and Oz, flights to Africa, where they have quite a significant network, will be significantly affected.

Is Kuwait supporting Qatar in this? I see it has not imposed a flight ban, but is it likely to be the subject of sanctions as well - even because of its failure to throw its toys out of the cot as well?

Most of the news article I'm seeing now are using phrasing to the effect of

All the nations also said they planned to cut air and sea traffic to the peninsular country. It wasn't immediately clear how that would affect Qatar Airways, one of the region's major long-haul carriers. The airline and Qatari government officials did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

That is from http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... epens.html but I am seeing similar language in many articles, including articles that mentioned overflight bans earlier, so it looks like that piece of the puzzle is not completely known yet.

Adipocere wrote:

What does this mean? Why would their neighbor countries shoot at QR flights that maybe carrying a large number of neutral or Western citizens?

It just simply means that QR flights can't fly into Egypt, Qatar, Bahrain, or Saudi airspace and basically all QR flights have to go around those countries. None of those countries want to start a war so no QR planes will be shotdown if they are in their countries airspace. QR won't fly into their airspace either, because they don't want their airplane destroyed and all the bad PR associated with that sort of thing. Planes being shot out of the sky is not really a concern in this situation.

This will shaft Emirates slightly too who fly into Qatar (although probably not as much as the laptop ban is).

Wonder if this severing of diplomatic relations isn't a prelude to an invasion, or some such...

airtrantpa wrote:

WPvsMW wrote:

Of U.S. interest... the USN 5th Fleet, including a carrier strike group, and US CENTCOM, is based in Bahrain. So... no shortage of surveillance.

USCENTCOM is based at MacDill AFBin Tampa, FL

The Al Udeid Air Base southwest of Doha,Qatar has according to latest media reports roughly 10k US troops there. Gotta wonder whats going to happen with that.

thepinkmachine wrote:

Wonder if this severing of diploamties isn't a prelude to an invasion, or some such...

Nah, I doubt it based on the tone of the various nations.

https://twitter.com/ALAHLI_FCEN/status/ ... 1721977856 Some Saudi sportsclub annpunced termination of their contract with Qatar Airways... Other businesses in those countries will probably do the same?

Thinking out loud, If the airspace blockade takes place. What would be affected?
1- All traffic to North/east/center of Europe & North Africa wouldn't be affected as the routes usually uses Iranian-Turkish airspace
2- All traffic to Asia and Australia would have a slight detour through Iranian/Pakistani airspace
3- All traffic to South America and south/southeast African would have a detour through Iranian/Pakistani and back to Oman ( which is a neutral country in this whole mess)
4- The biggest affect by far would be to North & center Africa, Jordan, Lebanese, South west Europe, Sudan as the detour would be massive.
5- Not to mentioned the cancelled destinations themselves which account for a massive feed and revenue to their network ...

What a mess, but I am enjoying my popcorn

Arion640 wrote:

This will shaft Emirates slightly too who fly into Qatar (although probably not as much as the laptop ban is).

iirc Qatar said they won't act in reciprocal

Agree that we need more details. However I've heard rumours about closing borders (air, sea & land) from all of these countries against Qatar. Doesn't sound good to QR if they are also closing their airspace to them since QR will be confined to only one way of getting out of the region, not to mention about their regional flyings.

Michael

airtrantpa wrote:

WPvsMW wrote:

Of U.S. interest... the USN 5th Fleet, including a carrier strike group, and US CENTCOM, is based in Bahrain. So... no shortage of surveillance.

USCENTCOM is based at MacDill AFBin Tampa, FL

Probably meant COMUSNAVCENT.

eamondzhang wrote:

Agree that we need more details. However I've heard rumours about closing borders (air, sea & land) from all of these countries against Qatar. Doesn't sound good to QR if they are also closing their airspace to them since QR will be confined to only one way of getting out of the region, not to mention about their regional flyings.

Michael

Discussing in the main thread about the relations changes, but it seems pretty clear that borders and air/land travel between the countries will cease. What is currently not clear is if overflight rights are impacted. That will be a big factor (but not the only factor) in how this impacts QR.

Pellegrine wrote:

HOLD ON

I have not seen in reports that KSA and UAE airspace has been closed to Qatari carriers.

Saudi television reported that airspace would be closed to Qatar. See towards the end of the video, where the newsreader states "'to prevent the passage of land, airspace and territorial waters in the KSA." I would imagine that Saudi Arabia would have urged the UAE to follow suit. They are certainly asking other Arab countries to support its stance.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video ... atar-video

RoySFlying wrote:

Pellegrine wrote:

HOLD ON

I have not seen in reports that KSA and UAE airspace has been closed to Qatari carriers.

Saudi television reported that airspace would be closed to Qatar. See towards the end of the video, where the newsreader states "'to prevent the passage of land, airspace and territorial waters in the KSA." I would imagine that Saudi Arabia would have urged the UAE to follow suit. They are certainly asking other Arab countries to support its stance.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video ... atar-video

Gotcha. Saudi certainly is pressuring other GCC members and even foreign governments

c933103 wrote:

Arion640 wrote:

This will shaft Emirates slightly too who fly into Qatar (although probably not as much as the laptop ban is).

iirc Qatar said they won't act in reciprocal

That would me mighty gentlemanly of them...one would guess they are hoping for a quick resolution.

c933103 wrote:

Arion640 wrote:

This will shaft Emirates slightly too who fly into Qatar (although probably not as much as the laptop ban is).

iirc Qatar said they won't act in reciprocal

I didn't think Qatar had made a statement yet (or it at least has not made it to English language press) but the UAE ban makes it sound to me like it impacts flights in both directions. Etihad has already canceled DOH service from Tuesday onwards.

Is this an unprecedented move?

By this I mean - are there any other traffic/airspace restrictions due to a country seemingly supporting ridiculous groups? Or is this be expected to be the norm?

Away from aviation also, it will be interesting to see if this will be another nail in the Qatar 2022 World Cup? Probably won't be, but I suspect this will fuel that debate also.

The QR flights to ACC, LOS, and KRT could be hurt pretty bad

ty97 wrote:

eamondzhang wrote:

Agree that we need more details. However I've heard rumours about closing borders (air, sea & land) from all of these countries against Qatar. Doesn't sound good to QR if they are also closing their airspace to them since QR will be confined to only one way of getting out of the region, not to mention about their regional flyings.

Michael

Discussing in the main thread about the relations changes, but it seems pretty clear that borders and air/land travel between the countries will cease. What is currently not clear is if overflight rights are impacted. That will be a big factor (but not the only factor) in how this impacts QR.

Didn't see the main thread until you told me But yes, overflying is a big factor here and we still need to see what's going on with these overflying rights.

Now, if QR ends up having problems, LATAM has problems.

One problem after another for the Chilean/Brazilian joint venture.

Well, if anyone has noticed the FIR maps, Qatar really doesnt have an airspace. Its all under Bahrain airspace. So not sure what the specifics will be, but total closure of Bahrain OBBB airspace means no flying in or out of Qatar. So perhaps overflying and airspace restrictions may be limited....

https://www.icao.int/safety/FITS/Lists/ ... A2B443E7C2

Isn't QR financially backed by the country? Or is it a privately owned carrier? Also, why is this suddenly happening? Was there something said or suddenly found out to cause This? I would think it would have been a slow moving escalation to cause this. Sorry for asking, and yes, I will try to Google it. I admit, I am not familiar with the country or airline.

Oh!!! Doesn't QR fly to the United States? Wouldn't the US follow suit?

Sigh. Now Regretting having booked with QR for MEL-LHR in August and October

I can imagine Iran taking advantage, offering Qatar a lifeline and drawing the two closer together.

We gonna see a Qatar Airlift across the Gulf soon?

Saudi Airlines has cancelled their flights starting today.

Etihad will suspend flights from Tuesday

Both Emirates and Etihad you cant book on their sites

FlyDubai still bookable (for now).

I suppose Qataris will have to fly via Oman Air, Jazeera or Kuwait Airways to get to Doha

AirIndia wrote:

Well, if anyone has noticed the FIR maps, Qatar really doesnt have an airspace. Its all under Bahrain airspace.

Flight Information Regions and territorial airspace are not synonymous. Flight information and alerts can be managed within a region that covers several countries but that does not mean that territorial air sovereignty is surrendered in any way.

airtrantpa wrote:

WPvsMW wrote:

Of U.S. interest... the USN 5th Fleet, including a carrier strike group, and US CENTCOM, is based in Bahrain. So... no shortage of surveillance.

USCENTCOM is based at MacDill AFBin Tampa, FL

Correct. I should have written Fifth Fleet/NAVCENT, which reports to US CENTCOM at MacDill.

well, curious to see how BA and AA react to this news

honestly wouldn't BA and RJ be the winners here? I'm sure there will be a lot of rerouting. unless of course, Jordan joins these countries

NearMiss wrote:

Now, if QR ends up having problems, LATAM has problems.

One problem after another for the Chilean/Brazilian joint venture.

Why? I thought QR doesn't have much presence in Latin America?

Pellegrine wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

I would like to see Qatar retaliate, who are their allies right now,,,,,,,Iran? You do know that Qatar relies on those countries for a lot of their everyday functions, right? For pete's sake their only land connections to the outside world are through those countries!!!

In a crisis such as this they can still conduct im/ex commerce through the Strait of Hormuz...nothing's blocking that. Even if all 4 countries deny overflight, besides the harm from not being able to land in those countries, QR flight plans to the SE and NW can easily be detoured slightly over Iran. They don't have many flights to Africa, and those that do can fly east>gulf>Iran>Oman>southwest to points onward.

They serve Kigali, Entebbe, Zanzibar, Algiers, Nairobi, Dar Es Salaam, Nairobi, Addis Ababa Tunis, Casablanca, Marrakech, Maputo, Lagos, Windhoek, Johannesburg, Cape Town, Durban, Seychelles, Djibouti, Cairo, Luxor, Khartoum. They plan to serve Abidjan, Accra, Douala, Libreville and Lusaka

Some routes are operated btw 1 and 3 times a day. They operate cargo service, to Kenya, Uganda, South Africa, Ghana, Tunisia, Morroco, Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria.

It's quite important. Some fllights were already impacted, when Yemenia airspace was closed. Few times ago, some Qatar Airways flights to South Africa, Rwanda and Uganda, made a detour over Jeddah, Karthoum, before to fly to the south

ThePointblank wrote:

airtrantpa wrote:

WPvsMW wrote:

Of U.S. interest... the USN 5th Fleet, including a carrier strike group, and US CENTCOM, is based in Bahrain. So... no shortage of surveillance.

USCENTCOM is based at MacDill AFBin Tampa, FL

Probably meant COMUSNAVCENT.

USCENTCOM for the forward operation in the mid-east is based out of AUAB in Qatar. The US ran Operations Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom from this location.

RyanairGuru wrote:

There are also unsubstantiated claims that Qatar is providing material support to ISIS and al-Qaeda, but in the absence of specific evidence I feel that might be shooting from the hip and trumping up charges to justify severing relations. We shall see.

I would be more inclined to think that it is Prime Minister May.

I am wondering if one of the intelligence agencies found a link between someone high up in Qatar and ISIS (money $$$ always follow the money) and this is a quick way of punishing them.

thepinkmachine wrote:

Wonder if this severing of diplomatic relations isn't a prelude to an invasion, or some such...

I doubt it, this is a way of sending a message,an invasion would take it to a whole different level.

a320fan wrote:

Sigh. Now Regretting having booked with QR for MEL-LHR in August and October

You will be fine, this will be over ina few days.

https://lovindubai.com/lifestyle/travel ... rspace-ban

Sorry just saw this and hope it helps with the visuals

c933103 wrote:

NearMiss wrote:

Now, if QR ends up having problems, LATAM has problems.

One problem after another for the Chilean/Brazilian joint venture.

Why? I thought QR doesn't have much presence in Latin America?

I think he is alluding that QR is leasing several A350's from LATAM.

Pellegrine wrote:

That would me mighty gentlemanly of them...one would guess they are hoping for a quick resolution.

The simple reality is that Qatar is a tiny country (despite its vast gas & oil wealth) and reciprocating would have little to no effect on their neighbours ability to do business (and flights) around them.

Wow, the one thing that has always been a threat to the ME3 has been the risk for instability in the region. With the laptop ban and now this it seems the ME3 are in for some turbulent times.

jetwet1 wrote:

RyanairGuru wrote:

There are also unsubstantiated claims that Qatar is providing material support to ISIS and al-Qaeda, but in the absence of specific evidence I feel that might be shooting from the hip and trumping up charges to justify severing relations. We shall see.

I would be more inclined to think that it is Prime Minister May.

I am wondering if one of the intelligence agencies found a link between someone high up in Qatar and ISIS (money $$$ always follow the money) and this is a quick way of punishing them.

How can the country support both ISIS and Iran?

Emirates will suspend flights to and from Doha from June 6

https://twitter.com/DavidInglesTV/statu ... 7979188224

Etihad also suspending flights to DOH from the 6th

http://www.etihad.com/en-lb/announcemen ... uspension/

What a mess.

Hard to work out the impact for EK and EY, DOH is a high traffic route but on the other hand they will pick of traffic from QR, not only from the banned countries but around the world as concerns about DOH grow.

In any case, it is proven that the State of Qatar subsidises ISIS, which will be the impact in Qatar Airways from the EU or the US?

Wouldn't some kind of sanctions be applied to Qatari-controlled companies? Interestingly they have an stake in IAG.

rukundo wrote:

Pellegrine wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

I would like to see Qatar retaliate, who are their allies right now,,,,,,,Iran? You do know that Qatar relies on those countries for a lot of their everyday functions, right? For pete's sake their only land connections to the outside world are through those countries!!!

In a crisis such as this they can still conduct im/ex commerce through the Strait of Hormuz...nothing's blocking that. Even if all 4 countries deny overflight, besides the harm from not being able to land in those countries, QR flight plans to the SE and NW can easily be detoured slightly over Iran. They don't have many flights to Africa, and those that do can fly east>gulf>Iran>Oman>southwest to points onward.

They serve Kigali, Entebbe, Zanzibar, Algiers, Nairobi, Dar Es Salaam, Nairobi, Addis Ababa Tunis, Casablanca, Marrakech, Maputo, Lagos, Windhoek, Johannesburg, Cape Town, Durban, Seychelles, Djibouti, Cairo, Luxor, Khartoum. They plan to serve Abidjan, Accra, Douala, Libreville and Lusaka

Some routes are operated btw 1 and 3 times a day. They operate cargo service, to Kenya, Uganda, South Africa, Ghana, Tunisia, Morroco, Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria.

It's quite important. Some fllights were already impacted, when Yemenia airspace was closed. Few times ago, some Qatar Airways flights to South Africa, Rwanda and Uganda, made a detour over Jeddah, Karthoum, before to fly to the south

Silly me and my memory. Well the flights to eastern and southern Africa can go DOH>Bandar Abbas>Muscat>Arabian Sea>. Western and northern Africa is trickier but not impossible, they'd have to decide whether to take the "northwestern route" (Iran>Turkey) or the "east then south route" going around the Arabian peninsula. Somalia, Yemen, South Sudan, and Libya must also be avoided or have minimum altitude restrictions of FL240. It will be interesting to see the flight paths.

scbriml wrote:

Pellegrine wrote:

That would me mighty gentlemanly of them...one would guess they are hoping for a quick resolution.

The simple reality is that Qatar is a tiny country (despite its vast gas & oil wealth) and reciprocating would have little to no effect on their neighbours ability to do business (and flights) around them.

What would be AMAZING - not likely though - would be if Qatar convinced Iran to deny UAE carriers overflight.

This whole Iranian connection is bollocks anyway. UAE does a HUGE amount of trade with Iran, but they want to make a drink about what Qatar is doing? Hypocrites.

Who supplies Qatar with oil/fuel??

In a reaction, Qatar Airways has now suspended all flights between Doha and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

http://www.luchtzak.be/airlines/qatar-a ... suspended/

Yemen has cut ties as well.

FlyDubai is suspending flights to Qatar.

BelAviaFan wrote:

In a reaction, Qatar Airways has now suspended all flights between Doha and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

http://www.luchtzak.be/airlines/qatar-a ... suspended/

Obviously Qatar has much more to lose.

At the end this is a very good thing for Emirates/Etihad/Saudia. A lot of people travel to DXB/AUH/KSA via DOH on cheaper fares. Now that possibility is gone and EK/EY/SV can pick that market.

pugman211 wrote:

Who supplies Qatar with oil/fuel??

They have enough production to cover themselves and export some crude oil and a whole lotta LNG.