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jplatts
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:39 am

Midwestindy wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
BNA's PDEW numbers show they could easily support PDX, SMF, ORF, RIC, OMA, and could make a TUL or OKC flight work.


Easily?
Q4 2016- PDX=109 PDEW SMF=87 PDEW ORF=60 PDEW RIC=56 PDEW OMA=54 PDEW TUL=30 PDEW PDEW OKC= 47 PDEW
Q3 2016- PDX=116 PDEW SMF=88 PDEW ORF=62 PDEW RIC=55 PDEW OMA=49 PDEW TUL=26 PDEW PDEW OKC= 51 PDEW
Don't forget Southwest has 137, 143, 150, and 175 passenger planes


Southwest will be retiring its 737-300 planes on September 30th, and any planes still in the Southwest fleet after September 30th will have at least 143 seats. Southwest doesn't yet have any 150 passenger planes, but will be receiving its 1st 737 MAX 7 plane in 2019, which will seat 150 passengers.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:39 am

jplatts wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
BNA's PDEW numbers show they could easily support PDX, SMF, ORF, RIC, OMA, and could make a TUL or OKC flight work.


Easily?
Q4 2016- PDX=109 PDEW SMF=87 PDEW ORF=60 PDEW RIC=56 PDEW OMA=54 PDEW TUL=30 PDEW PDEW OKC= 47 PDEW
Q3 2016- PDX=116 PDEW SMF=88 PDEW ORF=62 PDEW RIC=55 PDEW OMA=49 PDEW TUL=26 PDEW PDEW OKC= 51 PDEW
Don't forget Southwest has 137, 143, 150, and 175 passenger planes


Southwest will be retiring its 737-300 planes on September 30th, and any planes still in the Southwest fleet after September 30th will have at least 143 seats. Southwest doesn't yet have any 150 passenger planes, but will be receiving its 1st 737 MAX 7 plane in 2019, which will seat 150 passengers.


I'm aware... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southwest_Airlines
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:51 am

stl07 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
The largest markets out of Chicago Midway that where Southwest only does 1 daily nonstop out of MDW are Jacksonville, Oklahoma City, San Jose (CA), and Tucson.

Will Southwest add a 2nd nonstop to OKC and SJC out of MDW? OKC and SJC appear to be big enough for Southwest to do at least 2 nonstops out of MDW, especially since MDW is Southwest's top destination and especially since OKC and SJC are located in large U.S. Cities.

The largest markets out of Chicago that does not have nonstop service out of Chicago Midway include Richmond, Rochester (NY), Des Moines, Tulsa, Little Rock, Greenville/Spartanburg, El Paso, and Wichita. Southwest had previously served most of these markets nonstop from MDW, but hasn't yet done MDW-RIC nonstop service. Will Southwest Airlines add MDW-RIC nonstop service or revive nonstop service from MDW to any of the cities that previously had nonstop service to MDW?

I don't think there will be any growth in MDW without axing other routes as they are completely full on capacity at the airport, though these adds do make sense. Many of the routes listed have been switched to STL which as an entire empty concourse for growth. This does bring up the question of WN adding these cities from STL though


MDW is not "completely full." WN could add at least 20-25 daily flights without too much trouble, though I'm not sure it would be wise to do so.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Wed Jun 21, 2017 4:08 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
BNA's PDEW numbers show they could easily support PDX, SMF, ORF, RIC, OMA, and could make a TUL or OKC flight work.


Easily?
Q4 2016- PDX=109 PDEW SMF=87 PDEW ORF=60 PDEW RIC=56 PDEW OMA=54 PDEW TUL=30 PDEW PDEW OKC= 47 PDEW
Q3 2016- PDX=116 PDEW SMF=88 PDEW ORF=62 PDEW RIC=55 PDEW OMA=49 PDEW TUL=26 PDEW PDEW OKC= 51 PDEW
Don't forget Southwest has 137, 143, 150, and 175 passenger planes


I forgot they include both ways.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
flydulles
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Wed Jun 21, 2017 4:39 pm

tomorrow schedule release will i be able to book Memorial day 2018 plans?
 
bob75013
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Wed Jun 21, 2017 4:44 pm

On a different note, I do wish that WN would buy a few 737MAX-10s. I'd put em at Love Field and reduce frequencies to places like DEN and MDW (2 10s would seat about what 3 700s would seat), and use the new found gate space to launch new service... but that's just me.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Wed Jun 21, 2017 5:01 pm

Someone that works for WN at MCO said DTW is returning on the new schedule release? I assume it's Saturday service.
...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Wed Jun 21, 2017 5:17 pm

flymco753 wrote:
Someone that works for WN at MCO said DTW is returning on the new schedule release? I assume it's Saturday service.


I'd say Saturday service as well. Although, don't see why WN couldn't do it daily. Southwest has always done pretty well in Detroit.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
AWACSooner
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Wed Jun 21, 2017 5:21 pm

flydulles wrote:
tomorrow schedule release will i be able to book Memorial day 2018 plans?

No way...don't expect that til maybe mid-fall. This schedule will probably take them into late March.
 
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SteveXC500
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Wed Jun 21, 2017 5:28 pm

AWACSooner wrote:
flydulles wrote:
tomorrow schedule release will i be able to book Memorial day 2018 plans?

No way...don't expect that til maybe mid-fall. This schedule will probably take them into late March.


States right on southwest.com under the Flight Schedules page this schedule extension is through March 7, 2018. I would expect August or September will extend to Memorial Day travel.
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Wed Jun 21, 2017 5:28 pm

bob75013 wrote:
On a different note, I do wish that WN would buy a few 737MAX-10s. I'd put em at Love Field and reduce frequencies to places like DEN and MDW (2 10s would seat about what 3 700s would seat), and use the new found gate space to launch new service... but that's just me.

I know you have logical intentions when you suggest this, but the airline creep towards larger and larger aircraft in their fleets is a bit scary. WN's fleet used to be all 122 seaters. Soon, the smallest will be 143 and the fleet average is inching upward as more -800s are introduced. Economics say fly them all fuller than in the past when the 122 seaters flew, which means markets that WN now flies have a much higher margin goal. Small markets need to support multiple 143 aircraft at about 80% plus load factors and long-hauls need to be regularly near 100%. Smaller cities start to get squeezed out of the system and the airline has to push towards big city airports to have access enough passengers to fill those bigger planes. However, those very cities are proving to be very competitive and require a lot of resources. Airports with less competition appear to be held to a higher performance standard to offset those with more competition.

With the Max series, Boeing further pushes their smallest aircraft into larger capacity. This means when the NG -700's leave the WN fleet, the smallest 737 Max aircraft will be 150 seats, and I don't think they have a lot of those on order. Could the future WN fleet average be headed towards 175 seats? or higher if they bring in the Max10?
 
alggag
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:20 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
Both KIN and SXM have been rumored lately as the next
Possible destinations from FLL.


SXM has got to be on the top of their short list and am eagerly waiting for it. I really thought it would be the next to enter the network and was a bit surprised when they announced new service to PLS first.
 
FLYKTPA
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Wed Jun 21, 2017 10:33 pm

Looks like WN is adding a one-stop Louisville- Boston flight. Maybe this could lead to a nonstop flight.
http://www.bizjournals.com/louisville/n ... light.html
Huge fan of Tampa International Airport
 
crazytoaster
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Wed Jun 21, 2017 10:58 pm

FLYKTPA wrote:
Looks like WN is adding a one-stop Louisville- Boston flight. Maybe this could lead to a nonstop flight.
http://www.bizjournals.com/louisville/n ... light.html


Kinda random to see an article about a 1 stop direct flight somewhere. But SDF-BOS is not flown by anyone right now and would be a good add. 1x daily should be feasible.
DEN homebase. Frequent traveler to IND and RNO.
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:56 pm

[*]k
FLYKTPA wrote:
Looks like WN is adding a one-stop Louisville- Boston flight. Maybe this could lead to a nonstop flight.
http://www.bizjournals.com/louisville/n ... light.html

The article says it's a 1-stop flight through Chicago. No nonstop unless it proves popular. It could be viable and fits the niche WN seeks at BOS, but I'm not sure it's high on the list.
 
bob75013
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 12:41 am

LotsaRunway wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
On a different note, I do wish that WN would buy a few 737MAX-10s. I'd put em at Love Field and reduce frequencies to places like DEN and MDW (2 10s would seat about what 3 700s would seat), and use the new found gate space to launch new service... but that's just me.

I know you have logical intentions when you suggest this, but the airline creep towards larger and larger aircraft in their fleets is a bit scary. WN's fleet used to be all 122 seaters. Soon, the smallest will be 143 and the fleet average is inching upward as more -800s are introduced. Economics say fly them all fuller than in the past when the 122 seaters flew, which means markets that WN now flies have a much higher margin goal. Small markets need to support multiple 143 aircraft at about 80% plus load factors and long-hauls need to be regularly near 100%. Smaller cities start to get squeezed out of the system and the airline has to push towards big city airports to have access enough passengers to fill those bigger planes. However, those very cities are proving to be very competitive and require a lot of resources. Airports with less competition appear to be held to a higher performance standard to offset those with more competition.

With the Max series, Boeing further pushes their smallest aircraft into larger capacity. This means when the NG -700's leave the WN fleet, the smallest 737 Max aircraft will be 150 seats, and I don't think they have a lot of those on order. Could the future WN fleet average be headed towards 175 seats? or higher if they bring in the Max10?


My intentions revolve around:

1) the fact that WN is maxed out at Love Field with 18 gates and 180 flights a day
2) the assumption that WN would really like to open up new cities or new frequencies out of DAL. but can't because of 1 above
3) the assumption that DAL/MDW and DAL/DEN (maybe others) flights are positive enough to utilize large numbers of nonstops
4) the realization that to keep seat counts on DAL/DEN and DAL/MDW roughly constant and add new flights, the only way to do that is put Max10's on DAL/DEN and DAL/MDW and cut a frequency to each. The scenario probably applies to other city pairs, but I'm most familiar with those two.

Putting the higher seat count aircraft on flights involving DCA and LGA and other slot limited facilities would probably make sense, too.
 
SWADawg
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 12:47 am

You might be able to get a MAX-10 into MDW but you wouldn't be able to get it out without blocking 20-30 seats because of runway performance.
My posts are my opinion only and do not reflect the views of Southwest Airlines
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 12:58 am

alggag wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
Both KIN and SXM have been rumored lately as the next
Possible destinations from FLL.


SXM has got to be on the top of their short list and am eagerly waiting for it. I really thought it would be the next to enter the network and was a bit surprised when they announced new service to PLS first.


There's a buzz going that SXM already approved WN a afternoon 55 min slot time for 2018 planned summer rotation at the airport.
I don't think we will see it announced in this release.
But you never know.

I've also heard KIN may happen soon also.
But probably not in this release either.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 4:09 am

jplatts wrote:
Atlanta is the only destination out of Richmond that Southwest flies to year round, but Southwest could add possibly nonstop service to Chicago-Midway and Denver out of Richmond. There is possibly enough demand for Southwest to add DEN-RIC nonstop service since Southwest could provide connections to the Los Angeles area and the San Francisco Bay area, the two largest markets from Richmond not served nonstop from RIC, if Southwest adds nonstop service between DEN and RIC.



WN has consistently screwed the Richmond market. Air Tran provided far better service and they are truly missed. As to your question....WN has said they would fly RIC-MDW for years but never have. That would be the only slim possibility....but I seriously doubt it.

Air Tran flew RIC-MCO RIC-ATL and RIC-PHL. All made money but the Philly flights. WN quickly dropped everything except 3 daily flights to ATL. For what's it's worth Jet Blue and Delta quickly jumped on the MCO route and are doing quite well.

I dunno...maybe WN doesn't like making money.....but RIC is growing rapidly and has a very strong business community. UA recently started mainline service to DEN and it is doing well. So if WN does actual expand service from RIC I will be the first to applaud them....but again...I highly doubt it.
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 4:43 am

bob75013 wrote:
LotsaRunway wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
On a different note, I do wish that WN would buy a few 737MAX-10s. I'd put em at Love Field and reduce frequencies to places like DEN and MDW (2 10s would seat about what 3 700s would seat), and use the new found gate space to launch new service... but that's just me.

I know you have logical intentions when you suggest this, but the airline creep towards larger and larger aircraft in their fleets is a bit scary. WN's fleet used to be all 122 seaters. Soon, the smallest will be 143 and the fleet average is inching upward as more -800s are introduced. Economics say fly them all fuller than in the past when the 122 seaters flew, which means markets that WN now flies have a much higher margin goal. Small markets need to support multiple 143 aircraft at about 80% plus load factors and long-hauls need to be regularly near 100%. Smaller cities start to get squeezed out of the system and the airline has to push towards big city airports to have access enough passengers to fill those bigger planes. However, those very cities are proving to be very competitive and require a lot of resources. Airports with less competition appear to be held to a higher performance standard to offset those with more competition.

With the Max series, Boeing further pushes their smallest aircraft into larger capacity. This means when the NG -700's leave the WN fleet, the smallest 737 Max aircraft will be 150 seats, and I don't think they have a lot of those on order. Could the future WN fleet average be headed towards 175 seats? or higher if they bring in the Max10?


My intentions revolve around:

1) the fact that WN is maxed out at Love Field with 18 gates and 180 flights a day
2) the assumption that WN would really like to open up new cities or new frequencies out of DAL. but can't because of 1 above
3) the assumption that DAL/MDW and DAL/DEN (maybe others) flights are positive enough to utilize large numbers of nonstops
4) the realization that to keep seat counts on DAL/DEN and DAL/MDW roughly constant and add new flights, the only way to do that is put Max10's on DAL/DEN and DAL/MDW and cut a frequency to each. The scenario probably applies to other city pairs, but I'm most familiar with those two.

Putting the higher seat count aircraft on flights involving DCA and LGA and other slot limited facilities would probably make sense, too.


Southwest does more flights per day per gate out of Terminal 1 at LAX than it does out of its gates at DAL. Southwest actually does between 11 and 14 flights per gate per day out its gates in Terminal 1 at LAX, with departures occurring between 5:30 AM and 11:00 PM Pacific Time and with arrivals occurring between 6:25 AM and midnight Pacific Time. Southwest actually does between 9 and 12 flights per gate per day at DAL, with departures occurring between 6:00 AM and 11:00 PM Central Time and with arrivals occurring between 6:30 AM and 11:00 PM Central Time. There are a few gates at Love Field that are exclusively used by Southwest Airlines, that only see 9 flights per day, and that Southwest Airlines will not have to share with other airlines, and Southwest probably has room to do a few more flights out of DAL. Southwest might even have room to do at least 190 flights per day out of DAL, since 190 flights per day out of 16 gates at DAL is similar to 126 flights per day out of only 10 gates of LAX.
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 5:20 am

SWADawg wrote:
You might be able to get a MAX-10 into MDW but you wouldn't be able to get it out without blocking 20-30 seats because of runway performance.


ATA had flown Boeing 757-200 and 737-300 planes out of MDW when it was in operation, and the Boeing 737 MAX 10 is smaller than the Boeing 757-200 and 757-300.
 
AWACSooner
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 6:02 am

jplatts wrote:
ATA had flown Boeing 757-200 and 737-300 planes out of MDW when it was in operation, and the Boeing 737 MAX 10 is smaller than the Boeing 757-200 and 757-300.

While that is true...it's different engines on a different plane with different thrust ratings. Apples to oranges.
 
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barney captain
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 6:04 am

jplatts wrote:
SWADawg wrote:
You might be able to get a MAX-10 into MDW but you wouldn't be able to get it out without blocking 20-30 seats because of runway performance.


ATA had flown Boeing 757-200 and 737-300 planes out of MDW when it was in operation, and the Boeing 737 MAX 10 is smaller than the Boeing 757-200 and 757-300.



You apparently don't understand relative performance. The 757 was far more capable on short runways due to extra thrust and dual bogey main gear (read RTO margins) than any version of the 737 - most certainly the MAX10.

SWADawg is spot on with this.
Southeast Of Disorder
 
jbmitt
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 11:58 am

Yay... DSM shows a non-stop to PHX on the route map. F9 has flown it seasonally. There seem to be bugs in the booking system, so it could still be an error.
 
FLYKTPA
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 12:06 pm

SAN-TPA is showing non-stop on the route map!!
Huge fan of Tampa International Airport
 
dbo861
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 12:37 pm

jbmitt wrote:
Yay... DSM shows a non-stop to PHX on the route map. F9 has flown it seasonally. There seem to be bugs in the booking system, so it could still be an error.


It looks like it's weekend only. PHX is a popular destination from Iowa this time of year so I could see it switch to daily in the next schedule, or next fall.
 
Rdh3e
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 12:48 pm

LotsaRunway wrote:
Economics say fly them all fuller than in the past when the 122 seaters flew, which means markets that WN now flies have a much higher margin goal.

It's not necessarily higher margins, it's that both costs are higher and fares are lower than they used to be (adjusted for inflation), even with the more efficient, large aircraft. This means you need to cram more revenue per seat to make the same margin.
 
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SteveXC500
Topic Author
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 12:52 pm

MSP sees its token FLL and RSW service. FLL is Saturday only. RSW is weekend.

I can predict next release: FLL goes away. RSW goes daily. MCO and TPA are Saturday-only.

I haven't flown WN in a year now. DL/SY are the same price, or SLIGHTLY higher, for non-stops. I wonder when WN might get its act together at MSP. WN during Jan/Feb will be down to 22 departures mid-week, compared to 25 last year, same time.
Last edited by SteveXC500 on Thu Jun 22, 2017 1:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
flydulles
Posts: 122
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 1:06 pm

iam just guessing this takes awhile to upload on route map? cause i see nothing new yet at my airport location?
 
shadez
Posts: 139
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 1:09 pm

FLL-LGA has been added. Saturday and Sunday only.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 1:15 pm

flydulles wrote:
iam just guessing this takes awhile to upload on route map? cause i see nothing new yet at my airport location?


Not every airport gets something new
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
flydulles
Posts: 122
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 1:20 pm

Iam actually surprised airport Dulles does not Compete with united and frontier more
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 1:20 pm

Haven't had a chance to look at it yet but talk among friends is that FLL will be getting 2 more international destinations announced in the next few weeks for Jan-Mar schedule. Other sources say FLL has some idle aircraft time with one giving it enough time for SXM round trip and the other enough time for the already awarded FLL-MEX-FLL
Slot.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
shadez
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 1:28 pm

FLL-VRA also finally goes down to 1 daily. Took long enough.
 
HeeseokKoo
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 1:40 pm

jbmitt wrote:
DSM shows a non-stop to PHX on the route map.

Sat/Sun only.

Sunday only AUS-ABQ service is getting a 2nd Sunday nonstop. Still no weekday/Saturday flight.
 
wwtraveler99
Posts: 230
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2008 11:34 pm

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 1:50 pm

shadez wrote:
FLL-VRA also finally goes down to 1 daily. Took long enough.


This has always been only 1 daily


WW
 
Jshank83
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 2:56 pm

I think STL-OAK got dropped which shocks me. I just flew it last night with a connection because the timing on the nonstop didn't work for me and there were several people also on our connection. The nonstop is usually full. Plus it being two bigger stations seems odd it isn't show up anymore... weird. There are now a bunch of one stop no plane change. STL-SFO is still there.
Last edited by Jshank83 on Thu Jun 22, 2017 3:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
jbs2886
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Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 3:01 pm

Midwestindy wrote:


That poster just cites stats that aren't really relevant. Its beyond annoying.
 
axiom
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 3:12 pm

FLYKTPA wrote:
SAN-TPA is showing non-stop on the route map!!



Daily from January 8.

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/bus ... story.html
 
phluser
Posts: 631
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 3:18 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:

WN has consistently screwed the Richmond market. Air Tran provided far better service and they are truly missed. As to your question....WN has said they would fly RIC-MDW for years but never have. That would be the only slim possibility....but I seriously doubt it.

Air Tran flew RIC-MCO RIC-ATL and RIC-PHL. All made money but the Philly flights. WN quickly dropped everything except 3 daily flights to ATL. For what's it's worth Jet Blue and Delta quickly jumped on the MCO route and are doing quite well.


Southwest tried RIC-MCO on it's own metal as well. Maybe the market isn't fat enough for both JetBlue and Southwest. JetBlue can fly smaller planes when it wants, and maybe the assigned seating is popular with any business traffic. I don't know when Delta offers the service but it's not next week during the week and summer is popular for Orlando. If it's a short season when it's daily or weekend only, it's pretty much in the it doesn't really count category.

I agree with the point that Richmond is growing and Southwest for whatever reason has largely neglected it. I think if it can warrant GSP-ATL service in it's network, it could likely warrant RIC-BWI and BWI would vastly expand service to other markets albeit via a connection.
 
airfrnt
Posts: 2176
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2004 2:05 am

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 3:22 pm

bob75013 wrote:
LotsaRunway wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
On a different note, I do wish that WN would buy a few 737MAX-10s. I'd put em at Love Field and reduce frequencies to places like DEN and MDW (2 10s would seat about what 3 700s would seat), and use the new found gate space to launch new service... but that's just me.

I know you have logical intentions when you suggest this, but the airline creep towards larger and larger aircraft in their fleets is a bit scary. WN's fleet used to be all 122 seaters. Soon, the smallest will be 143 and the fleet average is inching upward as more -800s are introduced. Economics say fly them all fuller than in the past when the 122 seaters flew, which means markets that WN now flies have a much higher margin goal. Small markets need to support multiple 143 aircraft at about 80% plus load factors and long-hauls need to be regularly near 100%. Smaller cities start to get squeezed out of the system and the airline has to push towards big city airports to have access enough passengers to fill those bigger planes. However, those very cities are proving to be very competitive and require a lot of resources. Airports with less competition appear to be held to a higher performance standard to offset those with more competition.

With the Max series, Boeing further pushes their smallest aircraft into larger capacity. This means when the NG -700's leave the WN fleet, the smallest 737 Max aircraft will be 150 seats, and I don't think they have a lot of those on order. Could the future WN fleet average be headed towards 175 seats? or higher if they bring in the Max10?


My intentions revolve around:

1) the fact that WN is maxed out at Love Field with 18 gates and 180 flights a day
2) the assumption that WN would really like to open up new cities or new frequencies out of DAL. but can't because of 1 above
3) the assumption that DAL/MDW and DAL/DEN (maybe others) flights are positive enough to utilize large numbers of nonstops
4) the realization that to keep seat counts on DAL/DEN and DAL/MDW roughly constant and add new flights, the only way to do that is put Max10's on DAL/DEN and DAL/MDW and cut a frequency to each. The scenario probably applies to other city pairs, but I'm most familiar with those two.

Putting the higher seat count aircraft on flights involving DCA and LGA and other slot limited facilities would probably make sense, too.


Makes sense for DAL, but not DEN. WN is adding 10 more gates on C, and is absolutely not slot or gate constrained there.
 
nfldolphinsguy
Posts: 6
Joined: Fri Jul 03, 2009 4:14 am

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 3:24 pm

jbmitt wrote:
DSM shows a non-stop to PHX on the route map.


I just want to make the point that there are now four carriers competing over PHX/AZA in DSM. Prior to December 2015, there was one.

Someone's going to get pushed out of this market. Probably two someones.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 3908
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 3:29 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
I think STL-OAK got dropped which shocks me. I just flew it last night with a connection because the timing on the nonstop didn't work for me and there were several people also on our connection. The nonstop is usually full. Plus it being two bigger stations seems odd it isn't show up anymore... weird. There are now a bunch of one stop no plane change. STL-SFO is still there.


Actually, it shows back up again the last week of the extension with better times, on an 800 no less! So maybe with the plane crunch they just got rid of it for 2 months. This is the first time I have seen the schedule not be the same the whole way through. That is different.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 3908
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 3:32 pm

nfldolphinsguy wrote:
jbmitt wrote:
DSM shows a non-stop to PHX on the route map.


I just want to make the point that there are now four carriers competing over PHX/AZA in DSM. Prior to December 2015, there was one.

Someone's going to get pushed out of this market. Probably two someones.


Aren't most of those less than daily though? I am guess without looking it is AA, F9, WN, G4? The latter 3 are running 2 days a week? Maybe 3 for F9? So I could see it possibly still working. If they were all running daily then I would agree with you.
Last edited by Jshank83 on Thu Jun 22, 2017 3:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
ScottB
Posts: 7265
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 3:32 pm

wwtraveler99 wrote:
shadez wrote:
FLL-VRA also finally goes down to 1 daily. Took long enough.


This has always been only 1 daily

WW


Nope, FLL-VRA is twice daily currently (WN3914/WN3916). FLL-SNU is only once-daily.

wnflyguy wrote:
talk among friends is that FLL will be getting 2 more international destinations announced in the next few weeks for Jan-Mar schedule. Other sources say FLL has some idle aircraft time with one giving it enough time for SXM round trip and the other enough time for the already awarded FLL-MEX-FLL


Speaking of FLL, when do the A gates open? I was under the impression that was scheduled to happen a couple of weeks ago.

SteveXC500 wrote:
I haven't flown WN in a year now. DL/SY are the same price, or SLIGHTLY higher, for non-stops. I wonder when WN might get its act together at MSP. WN during Jan/Feb will be down to 22 departures mid-week, compared to 25 last year, same time.


If you and others are choosing DL & SY over WN, that might be part of why they've stagnated (IIRC most of that decline is from MSP-MKE being dropped, though). But do you really want them to push hard against SY? They're not exactly in great shape.

bob75013 wrote:
4) the realization that to keep seat counts on DAL/DEN and DAL/MDW roughly constant and add new flights, the only way to do that is put Max10's on DAL/DEN and DAL/MDW and cut a frequency to each. The scenario probably applies to other city pairs, but I'm most familiar with those two.


In dense business markets like DEN-DAL/DFW and CHI-DAL/DFW, frequency is important for attracting business customers, especially when competing with legacy carriers at their hubs (or even between their hubs in the case of ORD-DFW for AA). The 737-MAX10 also wouldn't free up gate time the way you think it might given that turn times would likely need to be close to an hour.

southwest1675 wrote:
BNA-BHM was WN's way of getting you to Dallas back in the Wright Amendment Days. That's why that flight worked for 25 plus years.


Nah, BHM-DAL wasn't possible until the Shelby Amendment was passed in 1997 (permitting non-stops and ticketing between Alabama and DAL), and non-stop BHM-DAL wasn't added until 2007, after the Wright restrictions were loosened to allow ticketing between DAL & cities outside the perimeter. It might have worked as BNA-BHM-MSY-DAL (but you would have had to do the Wright two-step at BHM or MSY) although I suspect it was easier to just do BNA-MSY-DAL or BNA-HOU-DAL.

GSP psgr wrote:
One of WN's problems is that it can't decide whether it wants it's Southern hub to be ATL or BNA. They've whacked ATL by about a third since buying AIrTran, and have been adding to BNA at the same time, but neither is on the scale of a BWI, MDW, or DEN. Coverage, particularly westbound and to second tier destinations, can be patchy from both.


Neither ATL nor BNA is suitable to grow to the size of BWI, MDW, DEN, PHX, DAL, HOU, LAS, etc. ATL is a big enough market but they're unlikely to be able to grow it to that scale up against the largest single-carrier hub in the world -- and DL is well-managed with good control over its costs. BNA is a great market for WN and they are dominant there, but the market size just isn't large enough to grow the hub by 50-100%, either.
 
nfldolphinsguy
Posts: 6
Joined: Fri Jul 03, 2009 4:14 am

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 3:43 pm

AA is 2x daily. G4 F9 is seasonal, 0.4x weekly. G4 is and WN is going to be 0.3x weekly.

At the seasonal peak, it will add up to around 4x daily flights to Phoenix when AA adds their winter third daily flight. All mainline jets. It's a huge capacity increase over what was available just a few years ago when AA was flying only 2x daily CRJ-900.

I would really like to see DSM pick up a new city pair. It's great to see added competition in the market, and F9 has brought quite a bit, but it'd be even better to see another non-stop option added. 5% enplanement growth in 2016, and on track for that again in 2017. DSM's been growing quickly since the recession ended.
 
DeltaRules
Posts: 5303
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2001 11:57 am

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 3:52 pm

Has WN put out the full list of changes yet as they usually do?
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B717/722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
jbmitt
Posts: 675
Joined: Fri Jan 18, 2002 3:59 am

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 3:55 pm

nfldolphinsguy wrote:
AA is 2x daily. G4 F9 is seasonal, 0.4x weekly. G4 is and WN is going to be 0.3x weekly.

At the seasonal peak, it will add up to around 4x daily flights to Phoenix when AA adds their winter third daily flight. All mainline jets. It's a huge capacity increase over what was available just a few years ago when AA was flying only 2x daily CRJ-900.

I would really like to see DSM pick up a new city pair. It's great to see added competition in the market, and F9 has brought quite a bit, but it'd be even better to see another non-stop option added. 5% enplanement growth in 2016, and on track for that again in 2017. DSM's been growing quickly since the recession ended.


I'm not convinced that F9 will come back to DSM to PHX even seasonally. Their schedule is only open to 11/1 and this might be enough to bump them off. G4 offers discount options using AZA, AA offers mainline, multiple flights and connectivity.

I would expect F9 back on the MCO flights seasonally. I think WN would be able to make those work as well for weekend only service.
 
Flyingstump
Posts: 89
Joined: Sat Apr 15, 2017 4:43 am

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 4:08 pm

axiom wrote:
FLYKTPA wrote:
SAN-TPA is showing non-stop on the route map!!



Daily from January 8.

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/bus ... story.html


Was really hoping AAG would step up to the plate here. These days, it seems that Southwest only expands its service to Tampa if it is a low hanging fruit. I guess I can't really complain as I'm sure both airports were not partial in their efforts to draw this service, and it's a good thing for travelers of both cities. Congrats to TPA, SAN, and Southwest
 
njdevilsin03
Posts: 673
Joined: Wed Apr 14, 2004 2:03 am

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 4:16 pm

Remember seeing somewhere June 30th on the A gates at FLL. Oddly numbered when I drove by there yesterday. I thought there were 5 gates the last one is labeled A7.
717, 727, 731, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 752, 753, 762, 763, 777, DC9, MD80, DC10, L1011, ERJ, CRJ, ATR, DH8, A300,

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