Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

ahj2000 · Tue Jun 06, 2017 3:34 am

Cvgspotter15 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
The largest markets out of Denver that Southwest Airlines does not fly to nonstop out of DEN include Charlotte, Cincinnati, Memphis, Des Moines, and Richmond. Frontier does serve CLT, CVG, MEM, and DSM nonstop from DEN, but Richmond isn't even served by Frontier. Will Southwest add nonstops to any of these cities from DEN?

CVG also gets Allegiant delta and united to DEN

CLT-it would be cool, but there are now 3 carriers on the route, one of which flies thousands of seats per day. DEN is actually relatively cheap for non stop out if CLT.
CVG- I actually wouldn't be surprised to see Denver being one of the first three expansion markets out of CVG, just on connections, and the sheer size if existing competition isn't as bad as Charlotte.
MEM-PROBABLY not.
DSM- doubt it. Glossing over over the fact that STL and LAS can't sustain WE forever IMO, LAS covers the ssmell traffic flows.
RIC is really thin and UA just started it recently.

dbo861 · Tue Jun 06, 2017 4:10 am

ty97 wrote:
DeltaRules wrote:
Does WN have any LGA slots they're working on picking up? It was mentioned by an executive in a story about WN's 25th anniversary at CMH last week that they want to add CMH-LGA and the lack of slots is the only thing stopping them.

LGA slots are difficult to come by, airlines hoard them like treasure. I'm not aware of anyone looking to offload any slots (not that I personally would be aware of any secret negotiations) but it would probably shock me if anyone was looking to offload LGA slots. I can't imagine what WN would offer of equal compensation to entice anyone to do so.

IIRC, the last two times slots traded places at LGA were the DL/US DCA/LGA slot swap (prior to the AA/US merger) and then the forced slot divestiture by AA/US as part of merger settlement. Perhaps there have been other smaller trades I am not aware of, but slots don't seem to change hands often or easily.

I think the only airline that I could see possibly offloading some DCA/LGA slots would be AS/VX since DAL is their only focus city within perimeter and that doesn't seem to working out so well for them.

ty97 · Tue Jun 06, 2017 4:28 am

dbo861 wrote:
ty97 wrote:
DeltaRules wrote:
Does WN have any LGA slots they're working on picking up? It was mentioned by an executive in a story about WN's 25th anniversary at CMH last week that they want to add CMH-LGA and the lack of slots is the only thing stopping them.

LGA slots are difficult to come by, airlines hoard them like treasure. I'm not aware of anyone looking to offload any slots (not that I personally would be aware of any secret negotiations) but it would probably shock me if anyone was looking to offload LGA slots. I can't imagine what WN would offer of equal compensation to entice anyone to do so.

IIRC, the last two times slots traded places at LGA were the DL/US DCA/LGA slot swap (prior to the AA/US merger) and then the forced slot divestiture by AA/US as part of merger settlement. Perhaps there have been other smaller trades I am not aware of, but slots don't seem to change hands often or easily.

I think the only airline that I could see possibly offloading some DCA/LGA slots would be AS/VX since DAL is their only focus city within perimeter and that doesn't seem to working out so well for them.

I thought about that, and it's certainly possible if they really want the cash. But the intrinsic value of the slots is so high and if AS/VS A) ever expand ease or B) the LGA perimeter is every relaxed, AS/VX would then have a very hard time getting back into LGA. No airline pays me a penny for advice, but if they did, my advice would be to sit on the slots.

joeljack · Tue Jun 06, 2017 5:09 am

I'll put my plug in....in the last 5 years, OMA has added LAX, MCO, DCA, DAL and now HOU. There are getting to be limited additional cities that could sustain WN service. Maybe we will see MSP at some point in the future, I do think it won't happen until MSP gets to at least 50-60 departures per day though (The WN name in MSP is not strong enough yet, it needs to grow first and people need to be less loyal to DL, it is happening, just super slow! - hence why MKE-MSP failed. I would bet it comes back though in about 3-5 years)

All that said, I think BNA might be the only low hanging fruit left from OMA. I really hope to see it in the next 2 years!

usflyguy · Tue Jun 06, 2017 5:10 am

LAX-MDW, LAX-BWI, SAN-BWI redeyes.

737max8 · Tue Jun 06, 2017 5:11 am

wnflyguy wrote:
SteveXC500 wrote:
No discussion on the closure of any station! Let's keep this to either rumors which are being discussed OR guesses/speculation about the upcoming schedule extension.

I'm going to guess with this being a two-month extension of the schedule to March 7th and this publication being prior to the big spring break additions, we won't see much. But, does anyone have information on how many aircraft will be entering service? Will this possibly play into more routes being added, additional frequencies on existing routes, or new locations? More international? How about (gasp) Hawaii?

Ready, go!

January and February WN will be adding back aircraft to recover it's temporary Fleet reduction from the 737-300 retirements.
I don't expect anything major like Hawaii during this time period. Heck I'm guessing it's probably more of a 2019 Hawaii plan.
Hearing another international destination will come early next year . I'm thinking SXM or KIN may be next on the short list from FLL.
I believe LAX T1 is scheduled to be finished in March 2018.
So next big announcements will probably be with the Fall March And April 2019 schedule release.

If and a big If WN pulls the ETOPS Hawaii trigger will probably happen around the WN June birthday celebrations or after the first MAX800 is delivered.

Flyguy

You should probably stop making up all these rumors.

And what is the MAX800? Never heard of it. Is it Ryanair's new model with 800 seats? :lol:

Midwestindy · Tue Jun 06, 2017 12:01 pm

IND-STL/BNA/PDX

SteveXC500 · Tue Jun 06, 2017 1:06 pm

joeljack wrote:
I'll put my plug in....in the last 5 years, OMA has added LAX, MCO, DCA, DAL and now HOU. There are getting to be limited additional cities that could sustain WN service. Maybe we will see MSP at some point in the future, I do think it won't happen until MSP gets to at least 50-60 departures per day though (The WN name in MSP is not strong enough yet, it needs to grow first and people need to be less loyal to DL, it is happening, just super slow! - hence why MKE-MSP failed. I would bet it comes back though in about 3-5 years)

All that said, I think BNA might be the only low hanging fruit left from OMA. I really hope to see it in the next 2 years!

Some MSP numbers to ponder for Delta and WN.

Market share at MSP (Passengers):
2013 - DL: 74.8% WN: 5.53%
2014 - DL: 74.0% WN: 5.53%
2015 - DL: 72.8% WN; 5.31%
2016 - DL: 71.1% WN: 5.81%
2017 - DL 69.2% WN: 5.90% (2017 is April YTD)

Worth noting WN has not moved much, although they have seen passenger growth and are over 2MM passengers annually at MSP. But, DL has tracked lower each year above in passenger market share. Sun Country has seen quite the growth spurt lately, now having a market share, YTD 2017, of almost 8%. AA is at 6.7% YTD.
So, to your point, people are becoming less loyal to DL at MSP.

jplatts · Tue Jun 06, 2017 1:42 pm

ty97 wrote:
DeltaRules wrote:
Does WN have any LGA slots they're working on picking up? It was mentioned by an executive in a story about WN's 25th anniversary at CMH last week that they want to add CMH-LGA and the lack of slots is the only thing stopping them.

LGA slots are difficult to come by, airlines hoard them like treasure. I'm not aware of anyone looking to offload any slots (not that I personally would be aware of any secret negotiations) but it would probably shock me if anyone was looking to offload LGA slots. I can't imagine what WN would offer of equal compensation to entice anyone to do so.

IIRC, the last two times slots traded places at LGA were the DL/US DCA/LGA slot swap (prior to the AA/US merger) and then the forced slot divestiture by AA/US as part of merger settlement. Perhaps there have been other smaller trades I am not aware of, but slots don't seem to change hands often or easily.

Therefore, if WN wants to operate CMH-LGA, they will likely need to cut something else at LGA.

ETA: EWR is no longer strictly slot controlled, so WN could conceivably add CMH-EWR (if they have the gate space) if they really desire to serve CMH-NYC.

There is also the possibility of extra slots becoming available at LGA if UA discontinues LGA-CLE nonstop service, but Southwest might possibly want to use any additional LGA slots acquired from UA for LGA-CLE nonstops if UA discontinues LGA-CLE service unless jetBlue adds JFK-CLE nonstop service.

Jshank83 · Tue Jun 06, 2017 1:51 pm

jplatts wrote:
ty97 wrote:
DeltaRules wrote:
Does WN have any LGA slots they're working on picking up? It was mentioned by an executive in a story about WN's 25th anniversary at CMH last week that they want to add CMH-LGA and the lack of slots is the only thing stopping them.

LGA slots are difficult to come by, airlines hoard them like treasure. I'm not aware of anyone looking to offload any slots (not that I personally would be aware of any secret negotiations) but it would probably shock me if anyone was looking to offload LGA slots. I can't imagine what WN would offer of equal compensation to entice anyone to do so.

IIRC, the last two times slots traded places at LGA were the DL/US DCA/LGA slot swap (prior to the AA/US merger) and then the forced slot divestiture by AA/US as part of merger settlement. Perhaps there have been other smaller trades I am not aware of, but slots don't seem to change hands often or easily.

Therefore, if WN wants to operate CMH-LGA, they will likely need to cut something else at LGA.

ETA: EWR is no longer strictly slot controlled, so WN could conceivably add CMH-EWR (if they have the gate space) if they really desire to serve CMH-NYC.

There is also the possibility of extra slots becoming available at LGA if UA discontinues LGA-CLE nonstop service, but Southwest might possibly want to use any additional LGA slots acquired from UA for LGA-CLE nonstops if UA discontinues LGA-CLE service unless jetBlue adds JFK-CLE nonstop service.

If UA stops LGA-CLE they won't give up the slots they will just fly to another airport from LGA.

jplatts · Tue Jun 06, 2017 5:07 pm

Will Southwest add nonstops from California to Tampa? While TPA has a significant LCC presence, the only carriers that currently have nonstop service to Tampa from California are Delta and United and there are currently no LCCs that fly nonstop to TPA from California.

tomaheath · Tue Jun 06, 2017 9:40 pm

How's Manchester looking? Been pretty uneventful for years now.

Midwestindy · Tue Jun 06, 2017 10:49 pm

SDF has significant bleed to BNA and IND, I could see SDF-FLL/LAX once gate situations are handled at LAX

crazytoaster · Tue Jun 06, 2017 11:24 pm

I really don't expect much in terms of exciting new routes/cities from a schedule extension. Generally when Southwest announces a new international destination it is separate announcement from a schedule extension. For example, GCM and PLS were separate announcements.

From FLL, it was noted that WN will be using 3 of the international gates. So that should give them room to add more destinations there in the future. I would like to see more domestic frequencies from FLL and winter would be a good time to add those flights. That would help there new international flights and future ones. From HOU I think GCM could work from there too.

stl07 · Wed Jun 07, 2017 7:07 pm

crazytoaster wrote:
I really don't expect much in terms of exciting new routes/cities from a schedule extension. Generally when Southwest announces a new international destination it is separate announcement from a schedule extension. For example, GCM and PLS were separate announcements.

From FLL, it was noted that WN will be using 3 of the international gates. So that should give them room to add more destinations there in the future. I would like to see more domestic frequencies from FLL and winter would be a good time to add those flights. That would help there new international flights and future ones. From HOU I think GCM could work from there too.

STL/BNA-CUN was just announced in the last schedule expansion, but it wasn't anything novel as those routes are already served by multiple airlines.

lat41 · Wed Jun 07, 2017 11:06 pm

tomaheath wrote:
How's Manchester looking? Been pretty uneventful for years now.

MHT features some of the fullest flights in the system and it's not because of bargain basement fares. Passengers there like PVD to the South are used to paying a premium for good service but have seen their schedules pinched in recent years in order to support BOS where WN takes a hammering from intense competition. Manchester could more WN service and at some point more could return but right now Southwest keeps a lid on it.

klm617 · Thu Jun 08, 2017 12:53 am

SteveXC500 wrote:
joeljack wrote:
I'll put my plug in....in the last 5 years, OMA has added LAX, MCO, DCA, DAL and now HOU. There are getting to be limited additional cities that could sustain WN service. Maybe we will see MSP at some point in the future, I do think it won't happen until MSP gets to at least 50-60 departures per day though (The WN name in MSP is not strong enough yet, it needs to grow first and people need to be less loyal to DL, it is happening, just super slow! - hence why MKE-MSP failed. I would bet it comes back though in about 3-5 years)

All that said, I think BNA might be the only low hanging fruit left from OMA. I really hope to see it in the next 2 years!

Some MSP numbers to ponder for Delta and WN.

Market share at MSP (Passengers):
2013 - DL: 74.8% WN: 5.53%
2014 - DL: 74.0% WN: 5.53%
2015 - DL: 72.8% WN; 5.31%
2016 - DL: 71.1% WN: 5.81%
2017 - DL 69.2% WN: 5.90% (2017 is April YTD)

Worth noting WN has not moved much, although they have seen passenger growth and are over 2MM passengers annually at MSP. But, DL has tracked lower each year above in passenger market share. Sun Country has seen quite the growth spurt lately, now having a market share, YTD 2017, of almost 8%. AA is at 6.7% YTD.
So, to your point, people are becoming less loyal to DL at MSP.

What I find most interesting is that Delta doesn't really care that they are losing market share as they continue to put all their eggs in the ATL fool heartedly as they slow reduce capacity at their other mainstay hubs.

southwest1675 · Thu Jun 08, 2017 4:21 am

AA is leaving gates C13 and C14 at BNA. These gates are just calling WN's name.

jplatts · Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:30 pm

Will Southwest add MEM-BNA nonstop service? Even though MEM is only 200 miles away from BNA, BNA has a lot of nonstops to the East Coast on Southwest whereas MEM currently only has 4 daily nonstops on Southwest to the east coast (2 to BWI, 1 to MCO, and 1 to TPA). BNA was also served nonstop out of MEM by Northwest prior to the Delta-Northwest merger.

Southwest does do at least 11 routes that are shorter than the MEM-BNA route, including MDW-GRR, MDW-IND, DAL-OKC, DAL-AUS, HOU-AUS, HOU-SAT, LAS-ONT, BWI-ORF, FLL-MCO, FLL-TPA, and ATL-GSP. Southwest can provide easier access to destinations that are no longer served nonstop from MEM through connections at BNA if it adds MEM-BNA nonstop service, including 2 in Ohio and 6 destinations on the east coast.

Jshank83 · Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:44 pm

jplatts wrote:
Will Southwest add MEM-BNA nonstop service? Even though MEM is only 200 miles away from BNA, BNA has a lot of nonstops to the East Coast on Southwest whereas MEM currently only has 4 daily nonstops on Southwest to the east coast (2 to BWI, 1 to MCO, and 1 to TPA). BNA was also served nonstop out of MEM by Northwest prior to the Delta-Northwest merger.

Southwest does do at least 11 routes that are shorter than the MEM-BNA route, including MDW-GRR, MDW-IND, DAL-OKC, DAL-AUS, HOU-AUS, HOU-SAT, LAS-ONT, BWI-ORF, FLL-MCO, FLL-TPA, and ATL-GSP. Southwest can provide easier access to destinations that are no longer served nonstop from MEM through connections at BNA if it adds MEM-BNA nonstop service, including 2 in Ohio and 6 destinations on the east coast.

Still seems pretty close to me but MEM-BNA already has service on Southern Airways.

SyracuseAvGeek · Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:22 am

Hopeful to see SYR in the new destination section

Cubsrule · Tue Jun 20, 2017 1:53 am

jplatts wrote:
Will Southwest add MEM-BNA nonstop service? Even though MEM is only 200 miles away from BNA, BNA has a lot of nonstops to the East Coast on Southwest whereas MEM currently only has 4 daily nonstops on Southwest to the east coast (2 to BWI, 1 to MCO, and 1 to TPA). BNA was also served nonstop out of MEM by Northwest prior to the Delta-Northwest merger.

Southwest does do at least 11 routes that are shorter than the MEM-BNA route, including MDW-GRR, MDW-IND, DAL-OKC, DAL-AUS, HOU-AUS, HOU-SAT, LAS-ONT, BWI-ORF, FLL-MCO, FLL-TPA, and ATL-GSP. Southwest can provide easier access to destinations that are no longer served nonstop from MEM through connections at BNA if it adds MEM-BNA nonstop service, including 2 in Ohio and 6 destinations on the east coast.

The fate of BHM-BNA should give you a good idea of the odds of MEM-BNA.

jplatts · Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:19 am

Cubsrule wrote:
jplatts wrote:
Will Southwest add MEM-BNA nonstop service? Even though MEM is only 200 miles away from BNA, BNA has a lot of nonstops to the East Coast on Southwest whereas MEM currently only has 4 daily nonstops on Southwest to the east coast (2 to BWI, 1 to MCO, and 1 to TPA). BNA was also served nonstop out of MEM by Northwest prior to the Delta-Northwest merger.

Southwest does do at least 11 routes that are shorter than the MEM-BNA route, including MDW-GRR, MDW-IND, DAL-OKC, DAL-AUS, HOU-AUS, HOU-SAT, LAS-ONT, BWI-ORF, FLL-MCO, FLL-TPA, and ATL-GSP. Southwest can provide easier access to destinations that are no longer served nonstop from MEM through connections at BNA if it adds MEM-BNA nonstop service, including 2 in Ohio and 6 destinations on the east coast.

The fate of BHM-BNA should give you a good idea of the odds of MEM-BNA.

Why would you think that MEM-BNA would fail if BHM-BNA did fail? MEM is farther from BNA than BHM is, the Memphis metropolitan area is larger than the Birmingham metropolitan area, and the Memphis city proper is much larger than the Birmingham city proper. In addition, there are many major corporations that are headquartered in the Memphis area, including AutoZone, Belz Enterprises, FedEx, International Paper, Perkins, and ServiceMaster. There is certainly business travel from Memphis to destinations in Ohio and on the East Coast that are not served nonstop out of Memphis, and Southwest could provide connecting service through MEM to these destinations if Southwest adds nonstop service between MEM and BNA.

jplatts · Tue Jun 20, 2017 3:16 am

Will Southwest add a nonstop from SDF to DAL, MCI, or STL? It is difficult to get to SDF from DAL on Southwest Airlines as there is no nonstop service from SDF out of DAL, and MDW is the only city between SDF and DAL that has a nonstop on Southwest to SDF. The only nonstop service to SDF out of Dallas is on American Airlines out of DFW. A connection through MDW to SDF from DAL is significantly out of the way, especially since the distance of traveling between SDF and DAL through MDW is more than 300 miles longer than that of a SDF to DAL nonstop flight, and especially since the travel time between SDF and DAL through MDW is more than double that of a nonstop flight between SDF and DAL.

Cubsrule · Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:42 am

jplatts wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
jplatts wrote:
Will Southwest add MEM-BNA nonstop service? Even though MEM is only 200 miles away from BNA, BNA has a lot of nonstops to the East Coast on Southwest whereas MEM currently only has 4 daily nonstops on Southwest to the east coast (2 to BWI, 1 to MCO, and 1 to TPA). BNA was also served nonstop out of MEM by Northwest prior to the Delta-Northwest merger.

Southwest does do at least 11 routes that are shorter than the MEM-BNA route, including MDW-GRR, MDW-IND, DAL-OKC, DAL-AUS, HOU-AUS, HOU-SAT, LAS-ONT, BWI-ORF, FLL-MCO, FLL-TPA, and ATL-GSP. Southwest can provide easier access to destinations that are no longer served nonstop from MEM through connections at BNA if it adds MEM-BNA nonstop service, including 2 in Ohio and 6 destinations on the east coast.

The fate of BHM-BNA should give you a good idea of the odds of MEM-BNA.

Why would you think that MEM-BNA would fail if BHM-BNA did fail? MEM is farther from BNA than BHM is, the Memphis metropolitan area is larger than the Birmingham metropolitan area, and the Memphis city proper is much larger than the Birmingham city proper. In addition, there are many major corporations that are headquartered in the Memphis area, including AutoZone, Belz Enterprises, FedEx, International Paper, Perkins, and ServiceMaster. There is certainly business travel from Memphis to destinations in Ohio and on the East Coast that are not served nonstop out of Memphis, and Southwest could provide connecting service through MEM to these destinations if Southwest adds nonstop service between MEM and BNA.

WN can't make money on virtually no O&D and $30 pro-rates. The business case for MEM-ATL is much stronger than the case for MEM-BNA because the O&D market is so much bigger, but that route did not survive the merger.

AWACSooner · Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:39 pm

jplatts wrote:
Will Southwest add a nonstop from SDF to DAL, MCI, or STL?

DAL is getting pretty tight on gate availability...so I wouldn't hold my breath.

wnflyguy · Tue Jun 20, 2017 1:15 pm

Ok just my predictions.
With Trumps new travel restrictions to CUBA possible pulling out of VRA and SNU.
With that aircraft time add 2 more international destinations from FLL.

Add 2 daily FLL-KIN and 1 daily FLL-SXM.

Domestic CVG-LAS and CVG-FLL.
If B6 rumors are true about cutting back 6 flights seasonally at LGB from January-April .
WN will add 2 DEN 2 LAS and 2 PHX.

Flyguy

LotsaRunway · Tue Jun 20, 2017 1:51 pm

Anyone have a feel for loads on international flights out of FLL? I still think they need more connecting feed to support all those flights. Maybe the timing is not right with this schedule release. I also think as WN restocks on airplanes and has more Max coming online, longer domestic flights might start getting restored, perhaps less than daily to start.

jplatts · Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:44 pm

Will Southwest drop GSP-ATL nonstop service and revive GSP-BNA nonstop service? Are the Southwest GSP-ATL nonstops really being used for connections, or is there nonstop travel between GSP and ATL on the Southwest flights between GSP and ATL?

ATL is also currently the only destination that Southwest flies to nonstop out of GSP. Most of the connections that can be made through ATL could be made at BNA if Southwest revives GSP-ATL nonstop service. Southwest also has an extra daily nonstop out of Nashville to Chicago Midway, Cleveland, Denver, Kansas City, and Phoenix plus nonstop service from Nashville to Pensacola and Panama City Beach, destinations that Southwest does not fly to nonstop out of ATL.

wnflyguy · Tue Jun 20, 2017 6:07 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
Ok just my predictions.
With Trumps new travel restrictions to CUBA possible pulling out of VRA and SNU.
With that aircraft time add 2 more international destinations from FLL.

Add 2 daily FLL-KIN and 1 daily FLL-SXM.

Domestic CVG-LAS and CVG-FLL.
If B6 rumors are true about cutting back 6 flights seasonally at LGB from January-April .
WN will add 2 DEN 2 LAS and 2 PHX.

Flyguy

Well GK addressed WN personal on there company web page that their reviewing the new Trump travel restrictions and have made no decision at this time on plans or impacts it will have on service.

Both KIN and SXM have been rumored lately as the next
Possible destinations from FLL.

Flyguy

wnflyguy · Tue Jun 20, 2017 6:11 pm

jplatts wrote:
Will Southwest drop GSP-ATL nonstop service and revive GSP-BNA nonstop service? Are the Southwest GSP-ATL nonstops really being used for connections, or is there nonstop travel between GSP and ATL on the Southwest flights between GSP and ATL?

ATL is also currently the only destination that Southwest flies to nonstop out of GSP. Most of the connections that can be made through ATL could be made at BNA if Southwest revives GSP-ATL nonstop service. Southwest also has an extra daily nonstop out of Nashville to Chicago Midway, Cleveland, Denver, Kansas City, and Phoenix plus nonstop service from Nashville to Pensacola and Panama City Beach, destinations that Southwest does not fly to nonstop out of ATL.

GSP-ATL has surprisingly picked on revenue load factor.
I wouldn't be surprised if they
Added a 4th daily flight to ATL.
I don't see Any other destinations returning to GSP.

Flyguy

TucsonDave · Tue Jun 20, 2017 6:17 pm

I heartily second the earlier plug for SYR. Good infrastructure, convenient location, plus a catchment area extending into N PA and SE ON.

cvgComair · Tue Jun 20, 2017 6:28 pm

We are hoping for CVG expansion this time around! Apparently WN is posting jobs for Cincinnati and has created a waitlist for crew hoping to transfer to CVG. Hopefully that means more flights! My predictions are CVG-PHX/LAS/MCO with possibly DEN/STL/BNA.

izbtmnhd · Tue Jun 20, 2017 7:19 pm

When does CVG start? Maybe a few flights to DEN to better see conx traffic flows. They've always pretty conservative with new stations.

Since WN started CLE-MKE last update and seems to be growing the station again, I'll throw out a 2x daily CLE-DAL or HOU. Why not.

I agree with wnflyguy's thoughts on LGB if B6 pulls back.

mtnwest1979 · Tue Jun 20, 2017 7:22 pm

CVG started June 4th.

Cvgspotter15 · Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:06 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
When does CVG start? Maybe a few flights to DEN to better see conx traffic flows. They've always pretty conservative with new stations.

Since WN started CLE-MKE last update and seems to be growing the station again, I'll throw out a 2x daily CLE-DAL or HOU. Why not.

I agree with wnflyguy's thoughts on LGB if B6 pulls back.

June 4

flymco753 · Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:14 pm

I've been predicting that WN was going to add DTW-HOU for about 2 years now and it still hasn't happened, with WN's recent expansion at HOU, one would think that DTW would be added at some point, specifically for lower cost, cross border travel. WN has been pretty quiet at DTW though recently so I'm in the middle, I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't announced but I'll be surprised if it is.

usflyguy · Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:42 pm

cvgComair wrote:
We are hoping for CVG expansion this time around! Apparently WN is posting jobs for Cincinnati and has created a waitlist for crew hoping to transfer to CVG. Hopefully that means more flights! My predictions are CVG-PHX/LAS/MCO with possibly DEN/STL/BNA.

"Crew" meaning ground employees?

jplatts · Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:50 pm

Will Southwest add service to Laredo, TX? Laredo is the largest city in Texas that Southwest Airlines does not serve, and Southwest does serve a few cities that are smaller than Laredo, including Amarillo, Midland, and Odessa. I would expect Southwest to serve HOU nonstop from LRD if Southwest starts service out of LRD.

Cvgspotter15 · Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:31 pm

cvgComair wrote:
We are hoping for CVG expansion this time around! Apparently WN is posting jobs for Cincinnati and has created a waitlist for crew hoping to transfer to CVG. Hopefully that means more flights! My predictions are CVG-PHX/LAS/MCO with possibly DEN/STL/BNA.

We want it to happen but it's to early. But we'll wait and see hopefully

AVLAirlineFreq · Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:10 pm

jplatts wrote:
Will Southwest drop GSP-ATL nonstop service and revive GSP-BNA nonstop service? Are the Southwest GSP-ATL nonstops really being used for connections, or is there nonstop travel between GSP and ATL on the Southwest flights between GSP and ATL?

There's zero O&D between ATL and GSP, a drive that can be made from downtown Greenville to Midtown Atlanta in 2 hours, traffic permitting. It's strictly there for connecting traffic.

OzarkD9S · Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:50 pm

jplatts wrote:

Will Southwest add service to Laredo, TX? Laredo is the largest city in Texas that Southwest Airlines does not serve, and Southwest does serve a few cities that are smaller than Laredo, including Amarillo, Midland, and Odessa. I would expect Southwest to serve HOU nonstop from LRD if Southwest starts service out of LRD.

I doubt it. CRP is hanging by a thread, I think "Texas Pride" is the only thing keeping WN in a few TX markets.

chrisnh · Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:04 pm

Whenever I look at the fare sales offered by WN, Boston has a long list of destinations and MHT is hardly ever on it. To me (right or wrong) that says BOS needs to entice passengers while MHT doesn't. I wish WN would do more east-west flying from MHT so wintertime connections to the west coast wouldn't always have to rely on MDW.

LotsaRunway · Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:46 pm

chrisnh wrote:
Whenever I look at the fare sales offered by WN, Boston has a long list of destinations and MHT is hardly ever on it. To me (right or wrong) that says BOS needs to entice passengers while MHT doesn't. I wish WN would do more east-west flying from MHT so wintertime connections to the west coast wouldn't always have to rely on MDW.

I was tracking a flight from BWI to MHT the other night on flightaware, and I noticed it quoted an average fare of just under $150. I said hmm, and checked BWI to PVD and it was just over $150. Then I checked BWI to BOS, and it was about $130. Now I don't know how accurate this data is, but it supports your theory. Plus I imagine costs are higher at Logan.

GSP psgr · Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:52 pm

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
jplatts wrote:
Will Southwest drop GSP-ATL nonstop service and revive GSP-BNA nonstop service? Are the Southwest GSP-ATL nonstops really being used for connections, or is there nonstop travel between GSP and ATL on the Southwest flights between GSP and ATL?

There's zero O&D between ATL and GSP, a drive that can be made from downtown Greenville to Midtown Atlanta in 2 hours, traffic permitting. It's strictly there for connecting traffic.

"Traffic permitting" being the operative words. It's usually closer to three hours, unless you're driving at 4am. Still, not much O&D.

One of WN's problems is that it can't decide whether it wants it's Southern hub to be ATL or BNA. They've whacked ATL by about a third since buying AIrTran, and have been adding to BNA at the same time, but neither is on the scale of a BWI, MDW, or DEN. Coverage, particularly westbound and to second tier destinations, can be patchy from both.

southwest1675 · Wed Jun 21, 2017 5:02 am

GSP psgr wrote:
AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
jplatts wrote:
Will Southwest drop GSP-ATL nonstop service and revive GSP-BNA nonstop service? Are the Southwest GSP-ATL nonstops really being used for connections, or is there nonstop travel between GSP and ATL on the Southwest flights between GSP and ATL?

There's zero O&D between ATL and GSP, a drive that can be made from downtown Greenville to Midtown Atlanta in 2 hours, traffic permitting. It's strictly there for connecting traffic.

"Traffic permitting" being the operative words. It's usually closer to three hours, unless you're driving at 4am. Still, not much O&D.

One of WN's problems is that it can't decide whether it wants it's Southern hub to be ATL or BNA. They've whacked ATL by about a third since buying AIrTran, and have been adding to BNA at the same time, but neither is on the scale of a BWI, MDW, or DEN. Coverage, particularly westbound and to second tier destinations, can be patchy from both.

BNA finally has the gates to support more flights, so we'll see what they do there. Currently sitting at 101 daily departures in Nashville.

southwest1675 · Wed Jun 21, 2017 5:34 am

BNA's PDEW numbers show they could easily support PDX, SMF, ORF, RIC, OMA, and could make a TUL or OKC flight work.

southwest1675 · Wed Jun 21, 2017 5:43 am

Cubsrule wrote:
jplatts wrote:
Will Southwest add MEM-BNA nonstop service? Even though MEM is only 200 miles away from BNA, BNA has a lot of nonstops to the East Coast on Southwest whereas MEM currently only has 4 daily nonstops on Southwest to the east coast (2 to BWI, 1 to MCO, and 1 to TPA). BNA was also served nonstop out of MEM by Northwest prior to the Delta-Northwest merger.

Southwest does do at least 11 routes that are shorter than the MEM-BNA route, including MDW-GRR, MDW-IND, DAL-OKC, DAL-AUS, HOU-AUS, HOU-SAT, LAS-ONT, BWI-ORF, FLL-MCO, FLL-TPA, and ATL-GSP. Southwest can provide easier access to destinations that are no longer served nonstop from MEM through connections at BNA if it adds MEM-BNA nonstop service, including 2 in Ohio and 6 destinations on the east coast.

The fate of BHM-BNA should give you a good idea of the odds of MEM-BNA.

BNA-BHM was WN's way of getting you to Dallas back in the Wright Amendment Days. That's why that flight worked for 25 plus years.

phluser · Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:11 am

chrisnh wrote:
Whenever I look at the fare sales offered by WN, Boston has a long list of destinations and MHT is hardly ever on it. To me (right or wrong) that says BOS needs to entice passengers while MHT doesn't.

BOS is more competitive and WN has to be more so there.

Midwestindy · Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:32 am

southwest1675 wrote:
BNA's PDEW numbers show they could easily support PDX, SMF, ORF, RIC, OMA, and could make a TUL or OKC flight work.

Easily?
Q4 2016- PDX=109 PDEW SMF=87 PDEW ORF=60 PDEW RIC=56 PDEW OMA=54 PDEW TUL=30 PDEW PDEW OKC= 47 PDEW
Q3 2016- PDX=116 PDEW SMF=88 PDEW ORF=62 PDEW RIC=55 PDEW OMA=49 PDEW TUL=26 PDEW PDEW OKC= 51 PDEW
Don't forget Southwest has 137, 143, 150, and 175 passenger planes

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