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wnflyguy
Posts: 2131
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 4:18 pm

ScottB wrote:
wwtraveler99 wrote:
shadez wrote:
FLL-VRA also finally goes down to 1 daily. Took long enough.


This has always been only 1 daily

WW


Nope, FLL-VRA is twice daily currently (WN3914/WN3916). FLL-SNU is only once-daily.

wnflyguy wrote:
talk among friends is that FLL will be getting 2 more international destinations announced in the next few weeks for Jan-Mar schedule. Other sources say FLL has some idle aircraft time with one giving it enough time for SXM round trip and the other enough time for the already awarded FLL-MEX-FLL


Speaking of FLL, when do the A gates open? I was under the impression that was scheduled to happen a couple of weeks ago.

SteveXC500 wrote:
I haven't flown WN in a year now. DL/SY are the same price, or SLIGHTLY higher, for non-stops. I wonder when WN might get its act together at MSP. WN during Jan/Feb will be down to 22 departures mid-week, compared to 25 last year, same time.


If you and others are choosing DL & SY over WN, that might be part of why they've stagnated (IIRC most of that decline is from MSP-MKE being dropped, though). But do you really want them to push hard against SY? They're not exactly in great shape.

bob75013 wrote:
4) the realization that to keep seat counts on DAL/DEN and DAL/MDW roughly constant and add new flights, the only way to do that is put Max10's on DAL/DEN and DAL/MDW and cut a frequency to each. The scenario probably applies to other city pairs, but I'm most familiar with those two.


In dense business markets like DEN-DAL/DFW and CHI-DAL/DFW, frequency is important for attracting business customers, especially when competing with legacy carriers at their hubs (or even between their hubs in the case of ORD-DFW for AA). The 737-MAX10 also wouldn't free up gate time the way you think it might given that turn times would likely need to be close to an hour.

southwest1675 wrote:
BNA-BHM was WN's way of getting you to Dallas back in the Wright Amendment Days. That's why that flight worked for 25 plus years.


Nah, BHM-DAL wasn't possible until the Shelby Amendment was passed in 1997 (permitting non-stops and ticketing between Alabama and DAL), and non-stop BHM-DAL wasn't added until 2007, after the Wright restrictions were loosened to allow ticketing between DAL & cities outside the perimeter. It might have worked as BNA-BHM-MSY-DAL (but you would have had to do the Wright two-step at BHM or MSY) although I suspect it was easier to just do BNA-MSY-DAL or BNA-HOU-DAL.

GSP psgr wrote:
One of WN's problems is that it can't decide whether it wants it's Southern hub to be ATL or BNA. They've whacked ATL by about a third since buying AIrTran, and have been adding to BNA at the same time, but neither is on the scale of a BWI, MDW, or DEN. Coverage, particularly westbound and to second tier destinations, can be patchy from both.


Neither ATL nor BNA is suitable to grow to the size of BWI, MDW, DEN, PHX, DAL, HOU, LAS, etc. ATL is a big enough market but they're unlikely to be able to grow it to that scale up against the largest single-carrier hub in the world -- and DL is well-managed with good control over its costs. BNA is a great market for WN and they are dominant there, but the market size just isn't large enough to grow the hub by 50-100%, either.


Last I heard the delayed opening was due to a malfunction with the fire sprinkler system. So who knows when that will open up no hard date has been announced.
Flyguy
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usflyguy
Posts: 1757
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:29 am

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 4:31 pm

FLL-LGA is Sat/Sun only.
Seasonal Service:
ALB-RSW
BNA-RSW
BUF-RSW
CLE-RSW
FNT-RSW
MCI-RSW daily
MSP-RSW
PVD-RSW
BWI-SLC daily.
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
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flyingclrs727
Posts: 2708
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 6:06 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
SteveXC500 wrote:
No discussion on the closure of any station! Let's keep this to either rumors which are being discussed OR guesses/speculation about the upcoming schedule extension.

I'm going to guess with this being a two-month extension of the schedule to March 7th and this publication being prior to the big spring break additions, we won't see much. But, does anyone have information on how many aircraft will be entering service? Will this possibly play into more routes being added, additional frequencies on existing routes, or new locations? More international? How about (gasp) Hawaii?

Ready, go!


January and February WN will be adding back aircraft to recover it's temporary Fleet reduction from the 737-300 retirements.
I don't expect anything major like Hawaii during this time period. Heck I'm guessing it's probably more of a 2019 Hawaii plan.
Hearing another international destination will come early next year . I'm thinking SXM or KIN may be next on the short list from FLL.
I believe LAX T1 is scheduled to be finished in March 2018.
So next big announcements will probably be with the Fall March And April 2019 schedule release.

If and a big If WN pulls the ETOPS Hawaii trigger will probably happen around the WN June birthday celebrations or after the first MAX800 is delivered.

Flyguy


Wouldn't Hawaii be a good reason for WN to buy the 737-10 Max?
 
jco613
Posts: 288
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 6:22 pm

njdevilsin03 wrote:
Remember seeing somewhere June 30th on the A gates at FLL. Oddly numbered when I drove by there yesterday. I thought there were 5 gates the last one is labeled A7.


The airport still says "Opening this month"

According to the airport's terminal map:
A1 will be near where B1 used to be...B1 will no longer be a gate, A2 will be adjacent to A1, then there is a corridor to A3-7...FWIW if you hover over gates A1-5, they belong to Southwest with 6-7 being common use, with Silver operating from somewhere around there (don't know if it's international or all flights)
 
phllax
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 6:50 pm

nfldolphinsguy wrote:
I would really like to see DSM pick up a new city pair. It's great to see added competition in the market, and F9 has brought quite a bit, but it'd be even better to see another non-stop option added. 5% enplanement growth in 2016, and on track for that again in 2017. DSM's been growing quickly since the recession ended.


US was flying a CR2 on one flight, if you can believe that!

If you look at all of the destinations served out of DSM, there really aren't any holes left to fill now that STL is back. Sure, frequency to Houston and EWR could be at better times, but now that there's 170's running to EWR and IAH, at least there's better aircraft than the 145 that were used for years. Be glad that there's the service there is. It wasn't so many years ago when UA was the only mainline carrier and everything else was express. Now everyone is running mainline in throughout the day, and DFW, PHX and ATL are all mainline!
 
roadpilot
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 6:53 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
Wouldn't Hawaii be a good reason for WN to buy the 737-10 Max?


Not if it can't do the shorter runways like OGG and LIH. I don't see them buying anything bigger than than the 8Max because it would stifle operational flexibility to swap aircraft around. They wouldn't be able to use it on in places like MDW and BUR.....hell depending on runway conditions it might take a payload hit out of HOU. The 8MAX will be the airframe to the islands
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 7:10 pm

roadpilot wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
Wouldn't Hawaii be a good reason for WN to buy the 737-10 Max?


Not if it can't do the shorter runways like OGG and LIH. I don't see them buying anything bigger than than the 8Max because it would stifle operational flexibility to swap aircraft around. They wouldn't be able to use it on in places like MDW and BUR.....hell depending on runway conditions it might take a payload hit out of HOU. The 8MAX will be the airframe to the islands


'Stifle operational flexibility' = live with higher CASM

Southwest couldn't use five hundred MAX10s in the present route network but it certainly could use one hundred. They wouldn't have to fly it from MDW to be useful. LIH isn't going to figure prominently in any Southwest service to Hawaii. HNL will have 20 WN flights before LIH sees 5. Sooner or later, WN is going to have to learn to manage some fleet complexity.
 
nfldolphinsguy
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 7:18 pm

phllax wrote:
It wasn't so many years ago when UA was the only mainline carrier and everything else was express. Now everyone is running mainline in throughout the day, and DFW, PHX and ATL are all mainline!


Very true, I remember the 50 and 70-seaters to everywhere time period here quite well.

I think locally we'd argue there are still holes to fill at SFO/OAK, snagging daily year-round LAX/ONT, but some of those are constrained airports at this point. PHL and SEA are also on our airport board's list. Obviously, service to any of those destinations won't be on WN in a DSM-sized market, but would definitely be more exciting announcement than yet another carrier going to Phoenix.

I'm happy though that this seems to indicate a commitment to DSM by WN, something that's been questioned extensively on this board for awhile.
 
jetsetter629
Posts: 498
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 7:56 pm

usflyguy wrote:
FLL-LGA is Sat/Sun only.
Seasonal Service:
ALB-RSW
BNA-RSW
BUF-RSW
CLE-RSW
FNT-RSW
MCI-RSW daily
MSP-RSW
PVD-RSW
BWI-SLC daily.


Wish WN would come back to PHL-RSW and AA is charging outrageous fare on that route!
 
Sooner787
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 7:57 pm

AWACSooner wrote:
jplatts wrote:
ATA had flown Boeing 757-200 and 737-300 planes out of MDW when it was in operation, and the Boeing 737 MAX 10 is smaller than the Boeing 757-200 and 757-300.

While that is true...it's different engines on a different plane with different thrust ratings. Apples to oranges.



IIRC,......WN has ordered the Max7's with MDW in mind
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 7:58 pm

LotsaRunway wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
On a different note, I do wish that WN would buy a few 737MAX-10s. I'd put em at Love Field and reduce frequencies to places like DEN and MDW (2 10s would seat about what 3 700s would seat), and use the new found gate space to launch new service... but that's just me.

I know you have logical intentions when you suggest this, but the airline creep towards larger and larger aircraft in their fleets is a bit scary. WN's fleet used to be all 122 seaters. Soon, the smallest will be 143 and the fleet average is inching upward as more -800s are introduced. Economics say fly them all fuller than in the past when the 122 seaters flew, which means markets that WN now flies have a much higher margin goal. Small markets need to support multiple 143 aircraft at about 80% plus load factors and long-hauls need to be regularly near 100%. Smaller cities start to get squeezed out of the system and the airline has to push towards big city airports to have access enough passengers to fill those bigger planes. However, those very cities are proving to be very competitive and require a lot of resources. Airports with less competition appear to be held to a higher performance standard to offset those with more competition.

With the Max series, Boeing further pushes their smallest aircraft into larger capacity. This means when the NG -700's leave the WN fleet, the smallest 737 Max aircraft will be 150 seats, and I don't think they have a lot of those on order. Could the future WN fleet average be headed towards 175 seats? or higher if they bring in the Max10?


WN needs a smaller aircraft to fly to smaller cities without cutting down to unsustainable frequencies. It's worthless for me to even consider flying from my home airport of CRP to many of WN's destinations, because many are not available via their online reservation system.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 8:05 pm

WN is dropping IND-DCA, will it be replaced with something else from DCA....
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14837
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 8:34 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
roadpilot wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
Wouldn't Hawaii be a good reason for WN to buy the 737-10 Max?


Not if it can't do the shorter runways like OGG and LIH. I don't see them buying anything bigger than than the 8Max because it would stifle operational flexibility to swap aircraft around. They wouldn't be able to use it on in places like MDW and BUR.....hell depending on runway conditions it might take a payload hit out of HOU. The 8MAX will be the airframe to the islands


'Stifle operational flexibility' = live with higher CASM

Southwest couldn't use five hundred MAX10s in the present route network but it certainly could use one hundred. They wouldn't have to fly it from MDW to be useful. LIH isn't going to figure prominently in any Southwest service to Hawaii. HNL will have 20 WN flights before LIH sees 5. Sooner or later, WN is going to have to learn to manage some fleet complexity.


WN already has flights that the each of the types in its fleet cannot operate or cannot operate in all weather (-300s because of runway performance and/or lack of rafts, some -700s because of lack of rafts and -800s because of runway performance). Why would the MAX10 be the complexity straw that breaks the camel's back?

ScottB wrote:
GSP psgr wrote:
One of WN's problems is that it can't decide whether it wants it's Southern hub to be ATL or BNA. They've whacked ATL by about a third since buying AIrTran, and have been adding to BNA at the same time, but neither is on the scale of a BWI, MDW, or DEN. Coverage, particularly westbound and to second tier destinations, can be patchy from both.


Neither ATL nor BNA is suitable to grow to the size of BWI, MDW, DEN, PHX, DAL, HOU, LAS, etc. ATL is a big enough market but they're unlikely to be able to grow it to that scale up against the largest single-carrier hub in the world -- and DL is well-managed with good control over its costs. BNA is a great market for WN and they are dominant there, but the market size just isn't large enough to grow the hub by 50-100%, either.


If BNA had the gates, I think growth to the size of STL or perhaps a little bigger could happen. Certainly, BNA has seen a tremendous amount of apparently profitable growth by other airlines to larger WN stations including the introduction of DL to LAX, UA to SFO, and AS and DL to SEA. That suggests some amount of demand untapped by WN.
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United_fan
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 8:40 pm

With AY not bringing back ROC -FLL , I cannot understand how WN doesn't have this flight . Seasonally it would do well. Fl used to do it seasonally on Saturdays. Looks like I have to venture to BUF to n/s it to FLL.
"Suspicion is a matter of opinion"
 
msycajun
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 9:24 pm

Still no official breakdown of changes?
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 10:20 pm

phluser wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:

WN has consistently screwed the Richmond market. Air Tran provided far better service and they are truly missed. As to your question....WN has said they would fly RIC-MDW for years but never have. That would be the only slim possibility....but I seriously doubt it.

Air Tran flew RIC-MCO RIC-ATL and RIC-PHL. All made money but the Philly flights. WN quickly dropped everything except 3 daily flights to ATL. For what's it's worth Jet Blue and Delta quickly jumped on the MCO route and are doing quite well.


Southwest tried RIC-MCO on it's own metal as well. Maybe the market isn't fat enough for both JetBlue and Southwest. JetBlue can fly smaller planes when it wants, and maybe the assigned seating is popular with any business traffic. I don't know when Delta offers the service but it's not next week during the week and summer is popular for Orlando. If it's a short season when it's daily or weekend only, it's pretty much in the it doesn't really count category.

I agree with the point that Richmond is growing and Southwest for whatever reason has largely neglected it. I think if it can warrant GSP-ATL service in it's network, it could likely warrant RIC-BWI and BWI would vastly expand service to other markets albeit via a connection.




WN's RIC-MCO route was profitable on WN's metal per this link from Richmond International Airport. http://www.flyrichmond.com/index.php/ne ... do-service

A key quote: "Both business and leisure travelers did support this Orlando route, which Southwest management has told us was profitable"


Apparently, WN felt they could make more money deploying the aircraft elsewhere. Stupid imho as Jet Blue immediately expanded there presence on the route as soon as WN dropped it and has been happily making money ever since.

RIC used to be a fairly sleepy airport and lagged far behind ORF. This is no longer the case as RIC has now surpassed ORF and has seen significant passenger growth for each of the last six years. WN is screwing the pooch in the Richmond market and there is really no excuse for it, although I'm sure UA, DL, AA appreciate the gift. Again....maybe WN will get there act together but I'm not holding my breath.
Last edited by ElroyJetson on Thu Jun 22, 2017 10:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
jporterfi
Posts: 509
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 10:23 pm

United_fan wrote:
With AY not bringing back ROC -FLL , I cannot understand how WN doesn't have this flight . Seasonally it would do well. Fl used to do it seasonally on Saturdays. Looks like I have to venture to BUF to n/s it to FLL.


Do you mean G4? Last I checked, AY (Finnair) didn't fly ROC - FLL :smile:
PPC (ASEL) | Aircraft Flown: PA28, C172, DA20
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 10:38 pm

Will Southwest even add weekend nonstop service from DAL to PBI? While Southwest has never served Palm Beach International Airport nonstop from Dallas Love Field, Palm Beach International Airport was behind the Wright Amendment repeal efforts. Dallas is also one of the top destinations out of West Palm Beach.
 
phluser
Posts: 630
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 2:49 pm

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 11:08 pm

jetsetter629 wrote:
usflyguy wrote:
FLL-LGA is Sat/Sun only.
Seasonal Service:
ALB-RSW
BNA-RSW
BUF-RSW
CLE-RSW
FNT-RSW
MCI-RSW daily
MSP-RSW
PVD-RSW
BWI-SLC daily.


Wish WN would come back to PHL-RSW and AA is charging outrageous fare on that route!


F9 does seasonally run PHL/TTN-PGD and Spirit has seasonal RSW from ACY. Even Southwest's BWI-RSW can be high fare relative to MCO, TPA and FLL flights, all which generally have more competition.
 
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LotsaRunway
Posts: 412
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 11:13 pm

bob75013 wrote:
LotsaRunway wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
On a different note, I do wish that WN would buy a few 737MAX-10s. I'd put em at Love Field and reduce frequencies to places like DEN and MDW (2 10s would seat about what 3 700s would seat), and use the new found gate space to launch new service... but that's just me.

I know you have logical intentions when you suggest this, but the airline creep towards larger and larger aircraft in their fleets is a bit scary. WN's fleet used to be all 122 seaters. Soon, the smallest will be 143 and the fleet average is inching upward as more -800s are introduced. Economics say fly them all fuller than in the past when the 122 seaters flew, which means markets that WN now flies have a much higher margin goal. Small markets need to support multiple 143 aircraft at about 80% plus load factors and long-hauls need to be regularly near 100%. Smaller cities start to get squeezed out of the system and the airline has to push towards big city airports to have access enough passengers to fill those bigger planes. However, those very cities are proving to be very competitive and require a lot of resources. Airports with less competition appear to be held to a higher performance standard to offset those with more competition.

With the Max series, Boeing further pushes their smallest aircraft into larger capacity. This means when the NG -700's leave the WN fleet, the smallest 737 Max aircraft will be 150 seats, and I don't think they have a lot of those on order. Could the future WN fleet average be headed towards 175 seats? or higher if they bring in the Max10?


My intentions revolve around:

1) the fact that WN is maxed out at Love Field with 18 gates and 180 flights a day
2) the assumption that WN would really like to open up new cities or new frequencies out of DAL. but can't because of 1 above
3) the assumption that DAL/MDW and DAL/DEN (maybe others) flights are positive enough to utilize large numbers of nonstops
4) the realization that to keep seat counts on DAL/DEN and DAL/MDW roughly constant and add new flights, the only way to do that is put Max10's on DAL/DEN and DAL/MDW and cut a frequency to each. The scenario probably applies to other city pairs, but I'm most familiar with those two.

Putting the higher seat count aircraft on flights involving DCA and LGA and other slot limited facilities would probably make sense, too.

I was thinking that expecting 10 or so aircraft turns per gate has got to be more difficult as more-800s come into the mix. They just take longer to turn and reduce the maximum gate count. Let's say they do bring the Max10 to DAL, there would be more seats per aircraft but that capacity would be offset by fewer aircraft turns to some degree. I don't know how the math would work out, but it wouldn't be pure gain.

That said, I could see WN considering the Max10 for fleet commonality, but I think they would be better served working with Boeing on a 737 replacement where the 200 seat category has better all around performance (including runway).
 
phluser
Posts: 630
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 11:18 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
phluser wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:

WN has consistently screwed the Richmond market. Air Tran provided far better service and they are truly missed. As to your question....WN has said they would fly RIC-MDW for years but never have. That would be the only slim possibility....but I seriously doubt it.

Air Tran flew RIC-MCO RIC-ATL and RIC-PHL. All made money but the Philly flights. WN quickly dropped everything except 3 daily flights to ATL. For what's it's worth Jet Blue and Delta quickly jumped on the MCO route and are doing quite well.


Southwest tried RIC-MCO on it's own metal as well. Maybe the market isn't fat enough for both JetBlue and Southwest. JetBlue can fly smaller planes when it wants, and maybe the assigned seating is popular with any business traffic. I don't know when Delta offers the service but it's not next week during the week and summer is popular for Orlando. If it's a short season when it's daily or weekend only, it's pretty much in the it doesn't really count category.

I agree with the point that Richmond is growing and Southwest for whatever reason has largely neglected it. I think if it can warrant GSP-ATL service in it's network, it could likely warrant RIC-BWI and BWI would vastly expand service to other markets albeit via a connection.




WN's RIC-MCO route was profitable on WN's metal per this link from Richmond International Airport. http://www.flyrichmond.com/index.php/ne ... do-service

A key quote: "Both business and leisure travelers did support this Orlando route, which Southwest management has told us was profitable"


Apparently, WN felt they could make more money deploying the aircraft elsewhere. Stupid imho as Jet Blue immediately expanded there presence on the route as soon as WN dropped it and has been happily making money ever since.

RIC used to be a fairly sleepy airport and lagged far behind ORF. This is no longer the case as RIC has now surpassed ORF and has seen significant passenger growth for each of the last six years. WN is screwing the pooch in the Richmond market and there is really no excuse for it, although I'm sure UA, DL, AA appreciate the gift. Again....maybe WN will get there act together but I'm not holding my breath.


RIC-PHL must have been short-lived and long ago when FL ran it and wasn't something WN deleted. In any event, FL used LGA slots for PHF over RIC, likely avoiding direct competition from DL and FL wasn't that big in RIC either. The Southeast isn't particularly a strong WN region, and WN likely puts it on the back burner. Ultimately not enough pax supported RIC-MCO and driving to Florida is also a factor. I don't think WN is screwing the pooch in RIC like you put it. With B6 succeeding over it on MCO service, I'd think B6 could leverage that strength and restore RIC-JFK which might do better without PHF-LGA as an indirect competitor. Also probably F9 can do well. The ULCC price point on fares can stimulate traffic likely more than WN's higher fare expectations.
Last edited by phluser on Thu Jun 22, 2017 11:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
czek6
Posts: 182
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 11:24 pm

Doesn't Southwest already fly BWI-SLC 2x daily? I'm confused about the new seasonal service listing.
 
phllax
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Thu Jun 22, 2017 11:29 pm

nfldolphinsguy wrote:

Very true, I remember the 50 and 70-seaters to everywhere time period here quite well.

I think locally we'd argue there are still holes to fill at SFO/OAK, snagging daily year-round LAX/ONT, but some of those are constrained airports at this point. PHL and SEA are also on our airport board's list. Obviously, service to any of those destinations won't be on WN in a DSM-sized market, but would definitely be more exciting announcement than yet another carrier going to Phoenix..


I would think that either SFO or LAX or both would be next by someone considering a 170 or CR7 can do it. At least the WN flight still originates in CA - this week it's route is SMF-BUR-LAS-DSM-STL-RDU. It's frequently either RNO, LAX, BUR or SNA. The return flight terminates in LAS, but it does usually continue to California. I think PHL is redundant now with the merger, and most points can be reached out of either ORD or CLT, and that's why CLT service levels are so high. MIA is just too far south, and Florida can be hit by CLT or ATL.

Do you ever wonder where that picture in the airport timeline in the lobby near the UA counters are showing all of those mainline airplanes at dawn is from? Part of me thinks it's from the morning of 9/12 considering how many planes there are, and they seem to be parked everywhere.
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Fri Jun 23, 2017 1:08 am

Southwest hasn't yet expanded out of HOU to additional destinations in Northern California or in the Midwest other than for the already-announced seasonal nonstop between HOU and CMH, but I do expect Southwest to add nonstop service out of HOU to destinations in Northern California and in the Midwest that are not currently served nonstop out of HOU in the near future.
 
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ElroyJetson
Posts: 876
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Fri Jun 23, 2017 1:19 am

phluser wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
phluser wrote:

Southwest tried RIC-MCO on it's own metal as well. Maybe the market isn't fat enough for both JetBlue and Southwest. JetBlue can fly smaller planes when it wants, and maybe the assigned seating is popular with any business traffic. I don't know when Delta offers the service but it's not next week during the week and summer is popular for Orlando. If it's a short season when it's daily or weekend only, it's pretty much in the it doesn't really count category.

I agree with the point that Richmond is growing and Southwest for whatever reason has largely neglected it. I think if it can warrant GSP-ATL service in it's network, it could likely warrant RIC-BWI and BWI would vastly expand service to other markets albeit via a connection.




WN's RIC-MCO route was profitable on WN's metal per this link from Richmond International Airport. http://www.flyrichmond.com/index.php/ne ... do-service

A key quote: "Both business and leisure travelers did support this Orlando route, which Southwest management has told us was profitable"


Apparently, WN felt they could make more money deploying the aircraft elsewhere. Stupid imho as Jet Blue immediately expanded there presence on the route as soon as WN dropped it and has been happily making money ever since.

RIC used to be a fairly sleepy airport and lagged far behind ORF. This is no longer the case as RIC has now surpassed ORF and has seen significant passenger growth for each of the last six years. WN is screwing the pooch in the Richmond market and there is really no excuse for it, although I'm sure UA, DL, AA appreciate the gift. Again....maybe WN will get there act together but I'm not holding my breath.


RIC-PHL must have been short-lived and long ago when FL ran it and wasn't something WN deleted. In any event, FL used LGA slots for PHF over RIC, likely avoiding direct competition from DL and FL wasn't that big in RIC either. The Southeast isn't particularly a strong WN region, and WN likely puts it on the back burner. Ultimately not enough pax supported RIC-MCO and driving to Florida is also a factor. I don't think WN is screwing the pooch in RIC like you put it. With B6 succeeding over it on MCO service, I'd think B6 could leverage that strength and restore RIC-JFK which might do better without PHF-LGA as an indirect competitor. Also probably F9 can do well. The ULCC price point on fares can stimulate traffic likely more than WN's higher fare expectations.




I flew the RIC MCO route 3 or 4 times when Air Tran ran the route with 717's. The planes were always either completely full or very close to full.

I contend WN has horribly mismanaged the RIC market. They stated years ago they would start RIC-MDW and RIC-BNA. We're talking the early 2000's before they even entered the market. There was much hope when WN acquired Air Tran that WN would keep there word, but that has never materialized.

They decreased service while the big 3 UA DL AA have expanded service significantly.

Oh well....WN's loss. Again....I am quite certain Jet Blue and the others appreciate it. :)
 
jbmitt
Posts: 674
Joined: Fri Jan 18, 2002 3:59 am

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Fri Jun 23, 2017 1:21 am

I'm surprised that WN added DSM - PHX prior to DEN. DEN has UA and F9, so this may indicate a willingness for them to compete directly against the other majors and F9. I think they could probably do seasonal weekend service to MCO. If they continue to add/retain customers, I'd imagine STL could get another frequency, DEN could be added, and MDW could return with less of an emphasis on connecting traffic. BWI, HOU, DAL would all seem to be long shots.

Part of the challenge in this market are the poorly timed flights as your departure options essentially are 6am, 12noon, or 6pm and arrivals at 11am, 5pm, or 11pm. I think swapping MDW for STL has worked well for connecting traffic, but MDW is an obvious hole for o/d traffic, regional business and destinations not served via STL. It's interesting to see that DSM is commonly used for WN diversions when Chicago weather gets bad.
 
nfldolphinsguy
Posts: 6
Joined: Fri Jul 03, 2009 4:14 am

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Fri Jun 23, 2017 3:13 am

@phllax

It definitely hasn't hurt CLT that there's such a large Wells Fargo presence here. It would be a boon for SFO/OAK service too, along with the tech firms that are cropping up here.

I picked the cities I did as they were mentioned as viable markets in some consultancy reports the airport board commissioned a year or two ago. Unfortunately, I don't have PDEW data for DSM to back up their claim. United Express ran CRJ-700s out to LAX-DSM briefly in the 2007-2008 time frame. I think when gas prices spiked the stage length made it impossible to turn a profit. LFs were > 80% at the time. Around that same time, oddly enough, we also briefly had CLE service. DL dropped it the day the first flight was operated.

As far as that picture, maybe so! I'm guessing it's from the mid-90s when American was still operating mainline Fokker 100 service to DSM, we saw 727s on United, and we had DC-9 service from Northwest.

@jbmitt

DSM-MDW was a disaster because it was poorly-timed. I believe the O&D share was an abysmal 10%, the rest was connecting traffic. I took it once. The people seated next to me were headed on to LAS when I got off the plane in DSM. Most of the others around me stayed on too. I miss the MDW service as that airport is much easier to use. That route, if better timed, could have been a slam dunk, but they let the ~12x-daily shuttle-like service on AA and UA wipe it out.

The situation has significantly improved on DSM-STL and we could use another frequency. I've done out and back to STL in a single-day and it's timed up well-enough for business travelers to be able to do it.

DEN is coming I think. The city itself is a popular destination here and it's a great western gateway. They'd also knock off F9 immediately. My understanding, however, is that DSM officials are pushing harder for WN to add DAL than to bring back MDW or add DEN. WN service to PHX, in the newspaper and on local TV, wasn't mentioned as a target. In fact, the local stations aren't even reporting it today, after it happened.
 
rj777
Posts: 1811
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2000 1:47 am

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Fri Jun 23, 2017 3:29 am

any changes at MKE?
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 5638
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Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Fri Jun 23, 2017 3:53 am

nfldolphinsguy wrote:
@phllax

I picked the cities I did as they were mentioned as viable markets in some consultancy reports the airport board commissioned a year or two ago. Unfortunately, I don't have PDEW data for DSM to back up their claim.


Here are the Q3 PDEW numbers from DSM for the routes you mentioned:
DSM-DEN=98 PDEW DSM-MDW=5 PDEW(ORD is 117 just for reference) DSM-SFO/OAK/SJC=95 PDEW (71 for SFO, 9 for OAK, 15 SJC)
DSM-PHX=148 PDEW DSM-DAL/DFW=98 PDEW
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
phllax
Posts: 638
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 6:53 am

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Fri Jun 23, 2017 5:27 am

PHX-DSM is a 700 on Saturdays and an 800 on Sundays.
 
nfldolphinsguy
Posts: 6
Joined: Fri Jul 03, 2009 4:14 am

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Fri Jun 23, 2017 6:11 am

I believe MSP-MKE was dropped.
 
jplatts
Posts: 3979
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Fri Jun 23, 2017 12:54 pm

nfldolphinsguy wrote:
DEN is coming I think. The city itself is a popular destination here and it's a great western gateway. They'd also knock off F9 immediately. My understanding, however, is that DSM officials are pushing harder for WN to add DAL than to bring back MDW or add DEN. WN service to PHX, in the newspaper and on local TV, wasn't mentioned as a target. In fact, the local stations aren't even reporting it today, after it happened.


While Southwest might be able to do more than 180 flights a day out of DAL, there is limited room for Southwest to expand at Dallas Love Field and Southwest would want to expand to other destinations out of DAL before it adds nonstop service to DSM out of DAL. There are markets out of Dallas larger than DSM that do not see nonstop service out of Dallas Love Field, including MSP, CLE, CVG, and TUS.
 
Dominion301
Posts: 2928
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Fri Jun 23, 2017 2:06 pm

usflyguy wrote:
FLL-LGA is Sat/Sun only.
Seasonal Service:
ALB-RSW
BNA-RSW
BUF-RSW
CLE-RSW
FNT-RSW
MCI-RSW daily
MSP-RSW
PVD-RSW
BWI-SLC daily.


I'm guessing the ones not listed as daily are Saturday-only? Are these all new or seasonal re-adds? Look at that list and FNT-RSW. Why are WN adding service to an airport that they're on the verge of closing. :stirthepot:
 
HeeseokKoo
Posts: 823
Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:54 pm

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Fri Jun 23, 2017 2:24 pm

msycajun wrote:
Still no official breakdown of changes?

There was a post yesterday morning but no info on reduced (or increased) frequencies:
https://www.southwestaircommunity.com/t ... ba-p/57536
https://www.southwestaircommunity.com/h ... pacity.pdf
 
jplatts
Posts: 3979
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Fri Jun 23, 2017 4:04 pm

LotsaRunway wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
LotsaRunway wrote:
I know you have logical intentions when you suggest this, but the airline creep towards larger and larger aircraft in their fleets is a bit scary. WN's fleet used to be all 122 seaters. Soon, the smallest will be 143 and the fleet average is inching upward as more -800s are introduced. Economics say fly them all fuller than in the past when the 122 seaters flew, which means markets that WN now flies have a much higher margin goal. Small markets need to support multiple 143 aircraft at about 80% plus load factors and long-hauls need to be regularly near 100%. Smaller cities start to get squeezed out of the system and the airline has to push towards big city airports to have access enough passengers to fill those bigger planes. However, those very cities are proving to be very competitive and require a lot of resources. Airports with less competition appear to be held to a higher performance standard to offset those with more competition.

With the Max series, Boeing further pushes their smallest aircraft into larger capacity. This means when the NG -700's leave the WN fleet, the smallest 737 Max aircraft will be 150 seats, and I don't think they have a lot of those on order. Could the future WN fleet average be headed towards 175 seats? or higher if they bring in the Max10?


My intentions revolve around:

1) the fact that WN is maxed out at Love Field with 18 gates and 180 flights a day
2) the assumption that WN would really like to open up new cities or new frequencies out of DAL. but can't because of 1 above
3) the assumption that DAL/MDW and DAL/DEN (maybe others) flights are positive enough to utilize large numbers of nonstops
4) the realization that to keep seat counts on DAL/DEN and DAL/MDW roughly constant and add new flights, the only way to do that is put Max10's on DAL/DEN and DAL/MDW and cut a frequency to each. The scenario probably applies to other city pairs, but I'm most familiar with those two.

Putting the higher seat count aircraft on flights involving DCA and LGA and other slot limited facilities would probably make sense, too.

I was thinking that expecting 10 or so aircraft turns per gate has got to be more difficult as more-800s come into the mix. They just take longer to turn and reduce the maximum gate count. Let's say they do bring the Max10 to DAL, there would be more seats per aircraft but that capacity would be offset by fewer aircraft turns to some degree. I don't know how the math would work out, but it wouldn't be pure gain.

That said, I could see WN considering the Max10 for fleet commonality, but I think they would be better served working with Boeing on a 737 replacement where the 200 seat category has better all around performance (including runway).


Southwest actually does more than 10 flights per gate per day out of its gates in Terminal 1 at LAX, and even does 14 of its 126 flights out of Terminal 1 at LAX on 737-800 planes. Southwest is already using 737-800 planes on 20 of its flights out of DAL and actually does as many as 12 flights per gate per day out of a few of its gates at DAL. Southwest has been able to do at least 10 turns per gate per day at both DAL and LAX with 737-800 planes in the mix, even though over 85% of the Southwest flights out of DAL and LAX are still flown on 737-300 or 737-700 planes.
 
AWACSooner
Posts: 2586
Joined: Tue Jan 22, 2008 12:35 am

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Fri Jun 23, 2017 5:23 pm

Really WN? You axe OKC-MDW?
 
nfldolphinsguy
Posts: 6
Joined: Fri Jul 03, 2009 4:14 am

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Fri Jun 23, 2017 6:06 pm

jplatts wrote:
There are markets out of Dallas larger than DSM that do not see nonstop service out of Dallas Love Field, including MSP, CLE, CVG, and TUS.


Completely agree that we're well down the priority list for this route, but that's what officials have been pushing for after getting STL.
 
Rdh3e
Posts: 3634
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:09 pm

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Fri Jun 23, 2017 6:36 pm

AWACSooner wrote:
Really WN? You axe OKC-MDW?

Probably a seasonal suspension. The flights were only 50% full last January, 60% full in February. The OKC economy has also been taking a massive beating so fares are probably down on top of the decreased loads. Makes sense to just cut out the worst part of the year.
 
jplatts
Posts: 3979
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Fri Jun 23, 2017 7:10 pm

Will Southwest add nonstop service from Houston Hobby to Sacramento, San Jose (CA), Minneapolis/St. Paul, Milwaukee, Detroit, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Grand Cayman, Nassau, Punta Cana, or Turks & Caicos in 2018? Will Southwest add year-round nonstop service from Houston Hobby to Columbus starting in June 2018 if the seasonal HOU-CMH nonstop service from November 2017 through January 2018 is successful?
 
jplatts
Posts: 3979
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Fri Jun 23, 2017 7:14 pm

Even though Southwest has discontinued HOU-EWR nonstop service, I do expect Southwest to revive HOU-EWR nonstop service if an extra HOU-NYC nonstop is needed since HOU only sees 3 daily nonstops to NYC, 2 on Southwest to LGA and 1 on jetBlue to JFK, and since Southwest doesn't have room at LGA to add an 3rd HOU-LGA nonstop with slot restrictions at LGA. Will Southwest be announcing the revival of HOU-EWR nonstop service on the July 27th schedule release?
 
Jshank83
Posts: 3784
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Fri Jun 23, 2017 8:05 pm

Rdh3e wrote:
AWACSooner wrote:
Really WN? You axe OKC-MDW?

Probably a seasonal suspension. The flights were only 50% full last January, 60% full in February. The OKC economy has also been taking a massive beating so fares are probably down on top of the decreased loads. Makes sense to just cut out the worst part of the year.


Usually if it is cut permanently there is a note after it that says so. So I would guess like mentioned it will be back later in the year.
 
AWACSooner
Posts: 2586
Joined: Tue Jan 22, 2008 12:35 am

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Fri Jun 23, 2017 8:29 pm

Rdh3e wrote:
The OKC economy has also been taking a massive beating so fares are probably down on top of the decreased loads.

Really? That's news to me, and I live in Norman.
 
Rdh3e
Posts: 3634
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:09 pm

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Fri Jun 23, 2017 9:52 pm

AWACSooner wrote:
Rdh3e wrote:
The OKC economy has also been taking a massive beating so fares are probably down on top of the decreased loads.

Really? That's news to me, and I live in Norman.

A huge portion of air traffic is energy related and energy in Oklahoma is seriously troubled. The low-fare volumes are certainly there, but a lot of the high-fare market has evaporated.

https://beta.bls.gov/dataViewer/view/ti ... 1500000001

Real GDP at the state level also declined last year by 2.3% which is significant, and highly correlated to the energy dependency of the economy. We'll have a better feel for OKC specifically when the metro level stats come out.
https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/region ... elease.htm
Last edited by Rdh3e on Fri Jun 23, 2017 9:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
AWACSooner
Posts: 2586
Joined: Tue Jan 22, 2008 12:35 am

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Fri Jun 23, 2017 9:55 pm

Riiight...because Oklahoma City's economy is completely and utterly tied to the oil and natural gas industry.

smh
 
Rdh3e
Posts: 3634
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:09 pm

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:01 pm

AWACSooner wrote:
Riiight...because Oklahoma City's economy is completely and utterly tied to the oil and natural gas industry.

smh

You're foolish if you think that the highest per-capita paying industry having a downturn does not impact the consumption of a good that only high-income people can afford to purchase regularly.

The economy is not completely Oil and Gas, but Oil and Gas has a disproportionate impact on air service.
 
AWACSooner
Posts: 2586
Joined: Tue Jan 22, 2008 12:35 am

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:35 pm

Rdh3e wrote:
AWACSooner wrote:
Riiight...because Oklahoma City's economy is completely and utterly tied to the oil and natural gas industry.

smh

You're foolish if you think that the highest per-capita paying industry having a downturn does not impact the consumption of a good that only high-income people can afford to purchase regularly.

The economy is not completely Oil and Gas, but Oil and Gas has a disproportionate impact on air service.

Three years ago, I might have agreed with you...but the layoffs have been minimal across the industry in the city for the past three years and the housing market has gone up. Now, I'm not an economist, but to me those are sure signs that the local economy is NOT in the crapper.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14837
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Sat Jun 24, 2017 1:21 pm

Rdh3e wrote:
AWACSooner wrote:
Riiight...because Oklahoma City's economy is completely and utterly tied to the oil and natural gas industry.

smh

You're foolish if you think that the highest per-capita paying industry having a downturn does not impact the consumption of a good that only high-income people can afford to purchase regularly.

The economy is not completely Oil and Gas, but Oil and Gas has a disproportionate impact on air service.


It does not help but I think that the bigger issue is the expansion of DAL and STL, which together relplicate MDW pretty well. LIT - which has similar geography but a vastly different economy - has seen the same service pattern shift.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
jetmatt777
Posts: 4401
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2005 2:16 am

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Sat Jun 24, 2017 1:23 pm

The OKC economy has certainly slowed, but it is foolish to say it is in the crapper. Air travel out of OKC paused, it didn't decline any significant amount, and is now showing signs of better growth.

Perhaps Southwest just had poor timing on the flight, I believe it departs OKC around 7pm. Fairly useless for most OKC originating business travel. UA and AA offer a much better selection of options to CHI, and experience much fuller flights.

AA and UA are the problem here, not OKC.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14837
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Sat Jun 24, 2017 1:49 pm

jetmatt777 wrote:
Perhaps Southwest just had poor timing on the flight, I believe it departs OKC around 7pm. Fairly useless for most OKC originating business travel. UA and AA offer a much better selection of options to CHI, and experience much fuller flights.


Options are important, but when I was commuting to OKC I used that MDW flight a ton. It permits a full day of work and still hits the last bank at MDW, so the connectivity is pretty good (albeit with awfully late arrivals to the northeast and Florida). I agree that AA and UA are the problem but the timing is not bad for a 1x flight.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
jetmatt777
Posts: 4401
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2005 2:16 am

Re: Southwest schedule extension June 22, 2017

Sat Jun 24, 2017 1:58 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
jetmatt777 wrote:
Perhaps Southwest just had poor timing on the flight, I believe it departs OKC around 7pm. Fairly useless for most OKC originating business travel. UA and AA offer a much better selection of options to CHI, and experience much fuller flights.


Options are important, but when I was commuting to OKC I used that MDW flight a ton. It permits a full day of work and still hits the last bank at MDW, so the connectivity is pretty good (albeit with awfully late arrivals to the northeast and Florida). I agree that AA and UA are the problem but the timing is not bad for a 1x flight.


Seemed to work well for your case, but my point is for the OKC originating traffic it's not as good of an option as a morning flight would be for business travelers.

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