Hi Folks,

I've heard from two different people associated with Manchester Airport in New Hampshire that Southwest Airlines might be pulling out entirely at MHT. Does anyone have any insight into this? In the late 90s/early 2000s, Manchester Airport experienced very rapid growth due to the Southwest effect. But, times changed and WN went from having no presence in Boston Logan to a fairly large presence there in the last few years. WN service between MHT-PHL and a few others were discontinued in 2011 and Manchester airport has never seemed to recover. If they do pull out of Manchester, I would bet that the fares on the remaining service offered by AA, DL and UA will increase dramatically. People often compare PVD to MHT. PVD seems to growing by leaps and bounds, while service levels to MHT is stagnant at best. If Southwest does pull out of MHT, what airports besides BOS will benefit? Perhaps BDL, PVD, PWM and BTV, all on the fringes of Manchester's catchment area?

I agree with what your sources said. They *might* be leaving. They *might* staying. They *might* be expanding. I don't think WN would tell the airport more than a couple of days in advance of an announcement, and WN is a couple of weeks from their next schedule change. I'd say it's unlikely to be imminent.

Highly unlikely! MHT is a profitable station for WN with a healthy schedule. There is a lot of moaning and groaning about how much service the airport has lost and plenty of people voice a fear that the remaining golden goose will fly away. I would expect to see a stripped schedule long before WN leaves any station, including MHT.

Let's wait to worry about this until when WN at MHT is cut down to just 3 flights, all to BWI.

What is their schedule @ MHT now vs June 2004?

727LOVER wrote:

What is their schedule @ MHT now vs June 2004?

I think frequency is down only a little to BWI and MDW, but capacity may be comparable with the extra row of seats on the-700s plus a-800, or two. What's gone are the longer flights to places like LAS, PHX, BNA and DEN. It's not far off of schedule adjustments at many stations. Plus WN is flying fuller but fewer planes in most locations.

If they did pull out 1 how hard would it be to get them to come back and second how would the other airlines react? Added flights from AA DL and UA? Would this make B6 interested in setting up shop?

I don't think WN have ever pulled out of a station the size of MHT...even when they left SFO the first time. As BOS becomes increasingly constrained, I can see an eventual renaissance for MHT just like PVD is currently experiencing.

I'd be shocked to see WN ever cut MHT below 10 flights a day let alone close the station.

I know MHT's pax totals continue to decline and are -8% YTD in 2017. At some point MHT will gradually start to grow again.

If FNT can continue to make the cut with its 3 flights/day to MDW (alongside UA & AA service to ORD) and in the proximity of DTW, then MHT is nowhere near being at risk with its much more robust schedule and portfolio of routes.

tomaheath wrote:

Would this make B6 interested in setting up shop?

Not competing with your own nearby hubs may be Hubs Basics #1. No UA at JFK. No UA at OAK. Ask US how much $ they lost when they simultaneously had hubs at PIT, PHL and BWI.

MIflyer12 wrote:

tomaheath wrote:

Would this make B6 interested in setting up shop?

Not competing with your own nearby hubs may be Hubs Basics #1. No UA at JFK. No UA at OAK. Ask US how much $ they lost when they simultaneously had hubs at PIT, PHL and BWI.

Yep. In addition no UA or AA at MDW, UA at HOU, or AA at DAL.

I think at least a couple MHT flights are slated to get the 737MAX so the end may not be near. However for me as a business flyer i would like to see more 'warm-weather' destinations along the east-west corridor. MDW is the only real connection point if you're heading to the west coast. And Chicago in the winter can be a miserable connection city. PHX, DEN, and LAS were all MHT destinations and are all gone now.

LotsaRunway wrote:

Let's wait to worry about this until when WN at MHT is cut down to just 3 flights, all to BWI.

That's ROC, plus a flight to MCO. My friend was upset that the $49 short haul BWI sale this time excluded ROC (but has BUF). Coincidentally, it excludes MHT as well, but has PVD. WN used to offer any 500 mile route from BWI as $49 during this sale. For a BWI based passenger or a MDW based passenger, WN offers many nonstop under 500 mile route markets in different directions. The $49 short haul fare is still a great sale, although every year it has more exclusions to it.

phluser wrote:

LotsaRunway wrote:

Let's wait to worry about this until when WN at MHT is cut down to just 3 flights, all to BWI.

That's ROC, plus a flight to MCO. My friend was upset that the $49 short haul BWI sale this time excluded ROC (but has BUF). Coincidentally, it excludes MHT as well, but has PVD. WN used to offer any 500 mile route from BWI was $49 during that sale. For a BWI based passenger or a MDW based passenger, WN offers many nonstop under 500 mile route markets in different directions. The $49 short haul fare is still a great sale, although every year it has more exclusions to it.

When I don't see a station on the 'sale list' I immediately think it's because Southwest feels that station is doing well and doesn't need any cut-rate fare stimulation.

MHT isn't going anywhere!

Flyguy

Manchester flights are some of the fullest on the WN system and they are far from the cheapest. In recent years, the offerings at MHT have pinched back, in part to support BOS where the carrier gets hammered by price competition and has to offer most destinations on "Click n' Save" almost constantly. As BOS saturates, maybe it's time for the pendulum to swing back a bit. in Southern New England at PVD, WN took away the DEN and tightly controls the time period for the RSW nonstop as examples, and now, Frontier to DEN and Allegiant to Punta Gorda have snuck in the back door. Southwest waits too long and MHT could be another candidate.

I would expect quite a few other stations to get the axe before MHT. Besides the usual suspects that seem to get mentioned in every WN schedule extension thread I would think that PWM is more vulnerable than MHT in New England.

PWM only got WN because of AirTran, not because it was on their wish-list to begin with.

chrisnh wrote:

phluser wrote:

LotsaRunway wrote:

Let's wait to worry about this until when WN at MHT is cut down to just 3 flights, all to BWI.

That's ROC, plus a flight to MCO. My friend was upset that the $49 short haul BWI sale this time excluded ROC (but has BUF). Coincidentally, it excludes MHT as well, but has PVD. WN used to offer any 500 mile route from BWI was $49 during that sale. For a BWI based passenger or a MDW based passenger, WN offers many nonstop under 500 mile route markets in different directions. The $49 short haul fare is still a great sale, although every year it has more exclusions to it.

When I don't see a station on the 'sale list' I immediately think it's because Southwest feels that station is doing well and doesn't need any cut-rate fare stimulation.

BUF unlike ROC has the LOW price appeal to the Canadians willing to treak across the board for fare deals.
WN always had fare deals since the beginning of BUF service.

MHT is a strong Small city for WN.
Unfortunately to remain competitive against B6 with it's BOS build up WN had to add the city. The Down fall was the reductions in MHT and PVD.

With the AirTran integration and sheading the 717's WN had to rework it's Network to achieve that in a timely manner. After that followed the current 737-300 retirements and new One Res system.
Next year WN will be back on a pure growth pattern.
I expect RedEYE flying sometime in the mid to fall 2018.
That will free up a lot of aircraft time especially from LAS.
I wouldn't be surprised to see MHT and PVD get a Red EYE from LAS by then.

In 2019 WN will have the 737-700 2.0 MAX ETOPS.
This plane will give it the ability to reach Western Europe especially from markets like MHT.
MHT has 2 nice long Runways and low competition right now with everyone gunning for PVD as a alternative to BOS international. WN could easily take advantage of that opportunity. That's unless they have bigger plans for BOS when they again relocate to New gates and go from 5 gates to 8.

But For the time being MHT probably going to stick around 12 to 20 flights for at least another years time.

That's my take on MHT
Flyguy

Probably not worth much but didn't MHT get "best station" from WN last year? For on time turns and under budget.
As far as B6 not coming to MHT because of there hub in BOS what about PVD? Same with DL.

Look at some of the more recent station adds from B6 including Providence. They stick with the door opener flights yet know darn well they would do a booming business and not all low yield $99 specials either. Though MHT, not as big a concentration as PVD, B6 would do fabulous but is wedded to BOS. DL also has spent a bundle defending BOS so don't expect anything too comprehensive anywhere else, certainly including MHT. As yields go down and BOS saturates other carriers that bleed there, get crowded out, or don't have the same committment are free to scout around. Be patient.

tomaheath wrote:

As far as B6 not coming to MHT because of there hub in BOS what about PVD? Same with DL.

DL is pretty much as minimal as you can get at MHT. One daily flight to ATL that is a RON and 3 daily to LGA/DTW on RJs, which are the two nearest hubs.

For comparison, PWM gets 2x mainline (and goes up to 3x mainline at peak summer) to ATL, 4x LGA and has the same 3x DTW (albeit one is a 717).

Even this summer, BTV is even seeing more DL service than MHT, which is something I've never seen happen...

wnflyguy wrote:

In 2019 WN will have the 737-700 2.0 MAX ETOPS.
This plane will give it the ability to reach Western Europe especially from markets like MHT.
MHT has 2 nice long Runways and low competition right now with everyone gunning for PVD as a alternative to BOS international. WN could easily take advantage of that opportunity. That's unless they have bigger plans for BOS when they again relocate to New gates and go from 5 gates to 8.

Not happening.

delete -duplicate

usflyguy wrote:

wnflyguy wrote:

In 2019 WN will have the 737-700 2.0 MAX ETOPS.
This plane will give it the ability to reach Western Europe especially from markets like MHT.
MHT has 2 nice long Runways and low competition right now with everyone gunning for PVD as a alternative to BOS international. WN could easily take advantage of that opportunity. That's unless they have bigger plans for BOS when they again relocate to New gates and go from 5 gates to 8.

Not happening.

Not happening??? Western Europe from MHT or bigger plans at BOS?
I mostly agree if you mean Western Europe not happening from MHT, although there may be a very, very slim chance WN could look at it if less than daily Norwegian service really takes off at PVD and BDL.
I'm sure they have bigger plans for BOS, but will they take the risk against the competition there. It could be very costly for WN to expand much more at BOS.

MIflyer12 wrote:

tomaheath wrote:

Would this make B6 interested in setting up shop?

Not competing with your own nearby hubs may be Hubs Basics #1.

Doesn't B6 serve EWR, PVD, ORH? I don't see how a couple of MHT-FLL and MHT-JFK is competing with a "nearby hub". People who fly out of MHT generally never intended to fly out of BOS. Fares from MHT are generaly more expensive than from BOS so if people are flying from MHT it's because they really want to fly from MHT and likely never even looked at BOS as an option. Of course there are exceptions such as the folks who live in Mass or near the Mass border.

wnflyguy wrote:

In 2019 WN will have the 737-700 2.0 MAX ETOPS.
This plane will give it the ability to reach Western Europe especially from markets like MHT.
MHT has 2 nice long Runways and low competition right now with everyone gunning for PVD as a alternative to BOS international. WN could easily take advantage of that opportunity. That's unless they have bigger plans for BOS when they again relocate to New gates and go from 5 gates to 8.

Utter nonesense. WN doesn't even fly to Canada.
Don't get me wrong, I would love it but 1) MHT has no international gates or CBP; 2) WN is very averse to Intl flying.

I would be surprised to see them close. Shrink to less gates or threaten for lower fees for something sure.

Let's not forget that Massport and JetBlue are joined at the hip. In other words, Southwest shouldn't expect any concessions from Massport or any favorable treatment at Logan. Lacking FIS is an obstacle, and the dilemma for MHT is to build or not to build? Have they missed the boat on international service because they don't have it?

May not be the most exciting thing but they did just add new self service kiosks.

chrisnh wrote:

Let's not forget that Massport and JetBlue are joined at the hip. In other words, Southwest shouldn't expect any concessions from Massport or any favorable treatment at Logan. Lacking FIS is an obstacle, and the dilemma for MHT is to build or not to build? Have they missed the boat on international service because they don't have it?

viewtopic.php?p=19610683#p19610593 suggests there might be another boat to miss:

Bjorn Kjos the CEO of Norwegian said today at the launch that the airline has plans to serve Los Angeles, San Francisco, Memphis, airports in Canada such as Toronto and additional airports north of Boston from EDI within the next two years.

Revelation wrote:

chrisnh wrote:

Let's not forget that Massport and JetBlue are joined at the hip. In other words, Southwest shouldn't expect any concessions from Massport or any favorable treatment at Logan. Lacking FIS is an obstacle, and the dilemma for MHT is to build or not to build? Have they missed the boat on international service because they don't have it?

viewtopic.php?p=19610683#p19610593 suggests there might be another boat to miss:

Bjorn Kjos the CEO of Norwegian said today at the launch that the airline has plans to serve Los Angeles, San Francisco, Memphis, airports in Canada such as Toronto and additional airports north of Boston from EDI within the next two years.

Let's see. North of Boston? Montreal and Halifax? Nah, they would have said Canada rather than Boston. I guess they mean PSM and PWM (even BTV) since MHT management probably can't be bothered with talking to the airline or considering installing an integrated FIS facility.

One thing I did notice was there is a plan to add FIS in the Signature terminal that was supposed to be started this spring. The plan added some signage along the front of the building. I haven't seen any activity around that building. Is it even remotely possible that they'd add a FIS to the main terminal?

LotsaRunway wrote:

Let's see. North of Boston? Montreal and Halifax? Nah, they would have said Canada rather than Boston. I guess they mean PSM and PWM (even BTV) since MHT management probably can't be bothered with talking to the airline or considering installing an integrated FIS facility.

Well let us remember that the rumors were that PSM was in the running against PVD in the first round of routes, but lost out and could certainly cover North of Boston and Southern New Hampshire, probably enough of a catchment area and about as close to BOS as SWF is to NYC. Perhaps 2x weekly to both PSM and MHT (if they get FIS) could work. I would be extremely happy if BHX or EMA to PSM could happen.. chances of that happening about 1%.

PWM and BTV are a little trickier. PWM could be a seasonal and BTV could act as a leap to Montreal, but both have small catchment areas and might struggle, but never say never..