chrisp390
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Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 1:13 am

I ask this question because looking at the numbers LAX has seen impressive growth in passenger numbers recently,

2016: +8.0%
2015: +6.1%
2014: +6.0%

These growth numbers are impressive, and are bigger than the growth at Beijing the past few years, as well as in Dubai a couple years. The Southern California region continues to be a hotspot for tourism, business, and immigration. No other airport in the region has managed to be a competitor to LAX in any big way, allowing them to absorb all the growth. The airport also works as an effective transit point for passengers transiting from Asia to South America. AA, DL, and UA are all wanting to make LAX a major hub, the only such airport in the country that has all 3 carriers vying to establish a hub there. Passenger traffic is already up around ~7% this year to date I believe, which would give them a total volume for 2017 of 85.5 million passengers if it holds, and over 100 million in 2020. With the ethnic diversity of Southern California, and the potential for more routes to secondary Chinese cities, Vietnam, Indonesia, and other countries around the world, could LAX become the biggest airport in the world by passenger volume?
Last edited by chrisp390 on Fri Jun 16, 2017 1:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
grbauc
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 1:23 am

It's bursting at the seams so I think reality is setting in. AA has trimmed a bit to keep the operation running more smoothly. DL will be starting construction and will be limited in growth a bit has they move amid such.
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 1:26 am

Nope. Too many west coast transpacific gateways and not enough omnidirectional traffic. ATL will remain # 1 until or unless PEK surpasses it.
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LAX772LR
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 1:27 am

Not without an enormous increase in terminal space.

And while DL has just done its big move, and work on the new int'l concourse is continuing... it still won't be enough. We'd probably still need the proposed Terminals 0 and 9, and probably to leave the eagle's nest open, to ever have any realistic chance of challenging ATL or PEK. And certainly not holding my breath for that.

I would however love to see LAX go on an international spree and retake the #2 USA int'l gateway position, which it held for so long, back from MIA.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
DfwAussie
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 3:11 am

Please for God's sake no. It's bad enough s it is and there really isn't a lot that can be done, even with a new west terminal. A train ala DFW between terminals would be a must. Traffic through the terminal areas is not great. As for PEK surpassing ATL, once Daxing gets built, that will reduce the number for PEK, no? It might for the short term. I'm still trying to find Daxing on Google Earth. For an airport that is advertised as opening in 2019, it's doing a fine job of hiding from the satellites.
 
AA737-823
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 3:26 am

Gosh, I hope not.
The only attractive feature of LAX is the new TBIT.
The rest is..... not a dump like LGA, but nothing worth connecting through. I was there last week. The terminals, due to their small size, offer very limited concessions.
Connectivity between terminals takes a LONG time, with no moving walkways in the underground tunnels on the SouthSide. NorthSide offers zero inter-terminal connections, period.

It needs a train, as DfwAussie suggested. Or at least a dang moving sidewalk. Badly.

Also, the layout of the airport is a bit dense. I'm not sure how much more traffic the place could handle without significant inbound and outbound delays.
Since we don't seem to be able to operate an airport as efficiently as Heathrow.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 3:33 am

No not worlds busiest, but certainly even more busy with seemingly every major airline will continue to grow at LAX - AA, DL, UA and WN have their own various projects that will boost their respective capacity.

LAX772LR wrote:
I would however love to see LAX go on an international spree and retake the #2 USA int'l gateway position, which it held for so long, back from MIA.


It already did that in 2016.

LAX 11,088,300
MIA 9,921,000

See table 8:
https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/press_releases/bts017_17

And so far in 2017, LAX international traffic is up 10.9%, while MIA is down 1.9%
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LAXintl
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 3:41 am

AA737-823 wrote:
Connectivity between terminals takes a LONG time, with no moving walkways in the underground tunnels on the SouthSide. NorthSide offers zero inter-terminal connections, period.


LAX since day one was not designed for connections - it was built as an O&D airport - which its the worlds #1 airport for.

The terminals (satellites at the time) were designed to be islands for respective individual airlines with focus on minimizing distance from curb to gate to get people in and out fast, not to people to linger or for inter terminal transfers.

Even to this day, the airport is not keen on fostering connection hub ops as all that would do is inflate passenger numbers, strain facilities.
This is actually one reason the airport in various ways has tried to reduce things like commuter ops by creating gating policies and fee structure that discourages use of airport as a connecting hub in broader sense.
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LAX772LR
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 3:50 am

LAXintl wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
I would however love to see LAX go on an international spree and retake the #2 USA int'l gateway position, which it held for so long, back from MIA.

It already did that in 2016.

LAX 11,088,300
MIA 9,921,000

Oh....... well then, mission accomplished. :biggrin: :bigthumbsup:

Out of curiosity, how far behind JFK are we?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
dc10lover
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 4:02 am

Everyone tries to cram into LAX, it's an absolute joke.
Why endure the nightmare and congestion of LAX when BUR, LGB, ONT & SNA is so much easier to fly in and out of. Same with OAK & SJC when it comes to SFO.
 
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jetblastdubai
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 4:04 am

With only 4 runways to be shared by arrivals and departures, LAX is quickly approaching the limit on total number of aircraft movements it can handle. Add to that the mix of heavies, non-heavies and RJs and the efficiency takes a hit as well. DXB and LHR, for much of the day, run back-to-back-to-back heavies 4 miles apart while bringing in 300+ pax. per flight. Those 50, 70 or 76-pax RJs need to be 6 miles behind a heavy so LAX loses potential traffic in two metrics right off the bat. (number of flights and pax)

LAX numbers are helped by the fact that it operates a fairly hefty schedule between midnight and 6 AM, when most airports farther east become ghost towns due to their time zone. ATL and ORD run more flights in an 18-hour day than LAX can in 24 hours for several reasons. Smaller % of heavies, more usable runways and far better terminal layouts.
 
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jetblastdubai
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 4:04 am

delete...duplicate
 
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mercure1
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 4:10 am

Has LAX not been the world's top origin and destination airport for many years already?

In essence, statistics for top airport like ATL is inflated as passengers are counted twice when they connect, while bulk of traffic for LAX is really destined or originates at LAX.

Anyhow, in my experience over the decades LAX has been very good to utilize. I rather have a functional airport like LAX, then an airport with fancier terminals yet terrible reliability or weather issues like I have experienced at SFO.
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intotheair
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 4:58 am

I still don't know why they didn't just nuke the whole thing.

The World Way loop and all the parking in the middle is just such an inefficient design, and those 60s era terminals will only continue to be maxed out for how many people they're supposed to process.
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Oykie
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 5:24 am

I really like to connect through LAX, traveling from Norway to New Zealand. It can be crowded in some terminals for sure, and traffic outside is intense. But it is still a good airport to connect to NZ. And with the ongoing renovation of terminals and plans for a people mover, LAX can still grow. I know LAX is not too focused on transfer passengers, but it is a very good pacific transfer HUB. I think it will climb the list, near to mid term.
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LAX772LR
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 6:01 am

dc10lover wrote:
Everyone tries to cram into LAX, it's an absolute joke.

Riiiight?! I mean, heaven forbid that airlines try to go where the money is. :roll:


jetblastdubai wrote:
LAX is quickly approaching the limit on total number of aircraft movements it can handle.

Which you base on ______?


intotheair wrote:
I still don't know why they didn't just nuke the whole thing.

Because such a woefully simplistic solution would cost more than it benefits, why else?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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intotheair
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 6:08 am

LAX772LR wrote:
intotheair wrote:
I still don't know why they didn't just nuke the whole thing.

Because such a woefully simplistic solution would cost more than it benefits, why else?


Oh I'm just being flippant. I also grew up in a city (DEN) that *did* nuke its old airport and built a new one from scratch, so my perspective is a little off anyway. But there's no getting around the fact that LAX just doesn't have great bones and that there isn't much more they can do beyond make the most of what they have, build the TBIT satellite concourse, and well, by that point, upgauge, upgauge, upgauge.
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AirlineCritic
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 6:21 am

DfwAussie wrote:
Please for God's sake no.


This.

No matter whether there's market for that or not, or companies flying there. It wouldn't fit! Stop!
 
LH423
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 8:53 am

LAX772LR wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
I would however love to see LAX go on an international spree and retake the #2 USA int'l gateway position, which it held for so long, back from MIA.

It already did that in 2016.

LAX 11,088,300
MIA 9,921,000

Oh....... well then, mission accomplished. :biggrin: :bigthumbsup:

Out of curiosity, how far behind JFK are we?


JFK had over 15 million in 2016 (15,644,047 to be exact). And that number has been growing by 900,000-1 million each year for the past few years. For comparison, the number of international arrivals at LAX grew by 720,000 yoy in 2015 and 1.1 million in 2016. If that growth rate continues eventually you'll catch up but it's gonna be a minute.
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Irehdna
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 1:08 pm

As massive as LAX is, it cannot support too much expansion in terminals and number of runways to become the world's busiest airport. I do, however, think that PEK will soon overtake ATL to be the busiest airport; it's only a matter of time.
 
dmstorm22
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 1:53 pm

LAXintl wrote:
No not worlds busiest, but certainly even more busy with seemingly every major airline will continue to grow at LAX - AA, DL, UA and WN have their own various projects that will boost their respective capacity.

LAX772LR wrote:
I would however love to see LAX go on an international spree and retake the #2 USA int'l gateway position, which it held for so long, back from MIA.


It already did that in 2016.

LAX 11,088,300
MIA 9,921,000

See table 8:
https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/press_releases/bts017_17

And so far in 2017, LAX international traffic is up 10.9%, while MIA is down 1.9%


Curious, the source you've linked to has ATL at about 50M total passengers (Table 4). Is this one of the methods where connecting passengers are only counted once - as by the method of counting them twice isn't ATL closer to 100M?
 
rubiohiguey
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 2:06 pm

dmstorm22 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
No not worlds busiest, but certainly even more busy with seemingly every major airline will continue to grow at LAX - AA, DL, UA and WN have their own various projects that will boost their respective capacity.

LAX772LR wrote:
I would however love to see LAX go on an international spree and retake the #2 USA int'l gateway position, which it held for so long, back from MIA.


It already did that in 2016.

LAX 11,088,300
MIA 9,921,000

See table 8:
https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/press_releases/bts017_17

And so far in 2017, LAX international traffic is up 10.9%, while MIA is down 1.9%


Curious, the source you've linked to has ATL at about 50M total passengers (Table 4). Is this one of the methods where connecting passengers are only counted once - as by the method of counting them twice isn't ATL closer to 100M?


The table says enplanements so yes the connecting pax are counted only once...When they enplane.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 2:14 pm

No. It doesn't have the space (or favorable attitude by voters or NIMBYs) for a big runway or terminal expansion. The area is not about to see a 'grand' improvement in public access - be it train or car - to pull traffic away from BUR/SNA/ONT. The roadway and Metro improvements will just make LAX a little less miserable. (The RER B line opened to CDG four DECADES ago!) There isn't room for a big LCC expansion to drive down fares and encourage more people to fly.
 
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tistpaa727
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 2:26 pm

DfwAussie wrote:
Please for God's sake no. It's bad enough s it is and there really isn't a lot that can be done, even with a new west terminal. A train ala DFW between terminals would be a must. Traffic through the terminal areas is not great. As for PEK surpassing ATL, once Daxing gets built, that will reduce the number for PEK, no? It might for the short term. I'm still trying to find Daxing on Google Earth. For an airport that is advertised as opening in 2019, it's doing a fine job of hiding from the satellites.


Here you go: https://www.google.com/maps/place/Daxing,+Beijing,+China/@39.5086294,116.4030305,2936m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x35f035dd86e79f6d:0xd043c5af5d7021c!8m2!3d39.726929!4d116.341395

Edited - fixed URL
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DfwAussie
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 2:34 pm

tistpaa727 wrote:
DfwAussie wrote:
Please for God's sake no. It's bad enough s it is and there really isn't a lot that can be done, even with a new west terminal. A train ala DFW between terminals would be a must. Traffic through the terminal areas is not great. As for PEK surpassing ATL, once Daxing gets built, that will reduce the number for PEK, no? It might for the short term. I'm still trying to find Daxing on Google Earth. For an airport that is advertised as opening in 2019, it's doing a fine job of hiding from the satellites.


Here you go: https://www.google.com/maps/place/Daxing,+Beijing,+China/@39.5086294,116.4030305,2936m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x35f035dd86e79f6d:0xd043c5af5d7021c!8m2!3d39.726929!4d116.341395

Edited - fixed URL


Thanks! Not sure why I'm not finding it. I've been looking at the most recent version of Google. That's going to be one big terminal.
 
danj555
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 2:44 pm

Omg, I can't believe how far away that thing is. I know they will have rail put in connecting it to south station... but its an hour by car to city center! Surely an express train couldn't knock off more than 15-20.
 
intothinair
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 3:01 pm

When the new Beijing airport opens in 2019 it will fly past ATL within a few years and stay there. They will be up to 150 mil. pax a year in no time. By 2025 Shanghai will join with Guangzhou following shortly thereafter. I put my money on fact that latest by 2030 the top 3 largest airports in the world will be in China.
 
babastud
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 3:05 pm

LAX worlds biggest, let's hope not! Granted LAX does a great job for the most part working with what it has given all of it's traffic, I can't imagine it being able to sustain it's current growth rate for too much longer, not out of lack of demand but a lack of shear space. This could be said of many of the West Coast major airports, they are busting at the seams. Someone should do a thread on Major west coast airports and lack of space. I'm guessing maybe PDX followed by SAN as being the most with room to grow? How is this all going to look in 5 or 10 years?
 
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ro1960
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 3:07 pm

Sorry I didn't read all the posts as this seems like a Groundhog Day thread... but the only way LAX can handle as much as it can is to have a daring remodeling plan like LGA. Even with that it will still be surpassed by other platforms with more real estate to spare as mentioned in some replies.
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DfwAussie
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 3:20 pm

intothinair wrote:
When the new Beijing airport opens in 2019 it will fly past ATL within a few years and stay there. They will be up to 150 mil. pax a year in no time. By 2025 Shanghai will join with Guangzhou following shortly thereafter. I put my money on fact that latest by 2030 the top 3 largest airports in the world will be in China.


Has something changed? CA and Star Alliance members were planning to remain at PEK. Now I think even MU and CZ are going to keep at least some flights into PEK. It'll be hard for Daxing to pass ATL with the C3 at least keeping some flights where they are now.
 
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jetblastdubai
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 3:54 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
jetblastdubai wrote:
LAX is quickly approaching the limit on total number of aircraft movements it can handle.

Which you base on ______?


10 years working LAX Tower.

You simply cannot keep adding gates on the end of terminals that block taxiways or park increasing numbers of arriving aircraft on active taxiways waiting for full gates or clogged alleys without causing ground movement problems. The larger planes take longer to push and if they need to shut down and tow on to gates, the alley congestion is amplified. LAX Terminal design is the biggest obstacle to any substantial increase in operations and there is no cost-effective way to fix that.
 
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jetblastdubai
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 3:54 pm

delete..duplicate
 
airfrnt
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 4:11 pm

The only way this would happen is for them to tear down everything but TBIT, and rebuild it as a mid-field concourse airport (which Atlanta did and then Denver copied and improved on). There is not enough runways, taxi-ways and basic infrastructure to do this anyways. It would probably also include expansion into the ocean a bit, which is something that the california costal commission, which is legendary for it's ability to obstruct projects, would not permit.
 
bmacleod
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 4:14 pm

PEK despite getting busier has its air pollution crisis to keep it behind ATL at least until 2020.

I'm thinking DXB or ORD will eventually overtake ATL - but LAX is a pipe dream at best... :cloudnine:
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DCA-ROCguy
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 4:15 pm

Our numerous discussions of the LA Basin air market suggest that LAX will remain vastly the largest airport for the entire region. Inland Empire demand near ONT is weak. NIMBY's won't allow any substantial development of BUR and SNA, which are near lots of money, and LGB, which isn't, but seems to have some draw. So, for the vast majority of travelers, LAX it is.

As a few people have noted, the only way to really improve airfield operations and capacity at LAX would be massively expensive replacement of much of the existing complex. Some years ago, former mayor Hahn proposed a single landside building east of the existing terminals, and having a tram into the terminal complex. LAXintl will know more, but I seem to remember that there wasn't going to be a radical change in the terminal layout. Wasn't the tram just going to connect into the existing buildings?

I'd guess that if there actually was political will and money to really improve LAX airside using the existing land footprint and runway layout, it would require knocking down hotels and office buildings on Century Blvd to build a big ATL-style single terminal and garage complex. Then, sequentially replace the existing terminals by building rows of long concourses that would connect to the runway complex at either end, like ATL. Of existing buildings, only the new Bradley concourse likely would remain. Such a plan would probably help a lot airside.

BUT...it would not help landside. As an O & D passenger, I actually find LAX quite convenient. You get dropped off at your unit terminal, and have a very short walking distance to your gate. There are some tricks you can learn, like dropping off departing T1 pax on the lower level. A central terminal likely would not have enough curb frontage. As LAXintl notes, LAX is primarily an O & D airport. That means, as anyone who uses LAX knows, LOTS of curb frontage is needed. The existing lengthy World Way, with thousands of feet of curb frontage on two levels, is tightly packed as it is. Lose that, and where do all the vehicles go? Plus, the existing LAX layout offers short walking distances for most passengers. An ATL-style complex would introduce much more walking, plus tram travel, for most or all passengers. Possibly much less convenient.

So, I for one am not really sure what to do. I'd guess LAWA will keep muddling along, which has (mostly) worked so far. Maybe widen the second level of World Way to completely cover the first, so that a second full dropoff curb would be possible on the second level.

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Aptivaboy
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 4:42 pm

intotheair wrote:
I still don't know why they didn't just nuke the whole thing.


Nuke it from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCbfMkh940Q

The whole place needs to be torn down and rebuilt from the ground up. I love LAX. It was my home airport for years, but it's quite frankly at it's limits. It needs new terminals, new traffic flows outside, and most of all, more land. There just isn't any more space to expand into. Any serious growth attempt will require more land, and that's the sticking point. Until LAX's physical footprint is enlarged, all anyone would be doing is putting lipstick on a pig, and you can only dress up a pig for just so long before everyone realizes exactly what it is.
 
xxcr
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 5:25 pm

i dont see it happening, LAX is way too congested. i've flown there a few times in the past few months, and our flights have always arrived early, but the delay comes when we arrive at the terminal and have to wait since its a one way road for planes to get to the gates!! if anything, ATL/DFW/ORD/HKG will remain at the top for a while.
 
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KrustyTheKlown
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 5:46 pm

Without a 3rd set of runways there's no possible way for LAX to become the world's busiest airport.

And even if said 3rd set of runways were to be built -reclaiming land from the sea as it is practically impossible to build them on land- that would be a project for 2050 and by then it may as well require a 4th set of runways to be able to become the world's busiest airport.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 8:29 pm

Irehdna wrote:
I do, however, think that PEK will soon overtake ATL to be the busiest airport; it's only a matter of time.

Very doubtful, considering that it will remain open when the new BJS airport opens. It'd probably take decades for either of them to reach the kind of critical mass necessary to challenge ATL any time soon.


bmacleod wrote:
I'm thinking DXB or ORD will eventually overtake ATL

DXB is unlikely, as it's siphoning off traffic to DWC, and will be closed in 8yrs.

DWC may be some day, but who knows.

Very unlikely ORD will, as it's trend has been in the exact opposite trajectory, with LAX having surpassed it yet again.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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RL777
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 8:36 pm

intothinair wrote:
When the new Beijing airport opens in 2019 it will fly past ATL within a few years and stay there. They will be up to 150 mil. pax a year in no time. By 2025 Shanghai will join with Guangzhou following shortly thereafter. I put my money on fact that latest by 2030 the top 3 largest airports in the world will be in China.


PEK will remain open when the new airport (BJS) opens, so unless the region sees absurdly unprecedented growth neither will overtake ATL anytime soon. I do agree with the last part of your statement however that by 2030 there likely will be a few Chinese airports up there in the traffic rankings.
 
kaitak744
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 8:50 pm

LAX does not need more runways, and it does not need more land. A lot of the current terminals are a lot better than the way they used to be, and they are massively improving as we speak.

With the new mid field concourse and the people mover on the land side (this will kick out all the shuttles and buses from the road) the road traffic and the gate congestion will be drastically improved.

LAX has a lot of life left in it.
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 8:59 pm

Could it - anything is possible.
Will it - Probably not.
 
stlgph
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 9:02 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Irehdna wrote:
I do, however, think that PEK will soon overtake ATL to be the busiest airport; it's only a matter of time.

Very doubtful, considering that it will remain open when the new BJS airport opens. It'd probably take decades for either of them to reach the kind of critical mass necessary to challenge ATL any time soon.


bmacleod wrote:
I'm thinking DXB or ORD will eventually overtake ATL

DXB is unlikely, as it's siphoning off traffic to DWC, and will be closed in 8yrs.

DWC may be some day, but who knows.

Very unlikely ORD will, as it's trend has been in the exact opposite trajectory, with LAX having surpassed it yet again.


I don't recall a plan to close Dubai Int'l. when World Central opens....
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
izbtmnhd
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 9:05 pm

RL777 wrote:
intothinair wrote:
so unless the region sees absurdly unprecedented growth neither will overtake ATL anytime soon.


There's nothing comparable in North America to what's going in Chinese cities. Toronto's condo boom is close in terms of overall construction but population growth is still sluggish compared to most Chinese places.

Don't be surprised if Beijing can still pull it off.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 9:31 pm

stlgph wrote:
I don't recall a plan to close Dubai Int'l. when World Central opens....

Well, it's already open, so that's obviously not the case.

Though when asked in 2013, Paul Griffiths stated that the land DXB sits on is too value to ignore the potential of alternative uses, and the risk of siphoning traffic from DWC quite high. While it's true that he didn't say specifically it'd close, they've definitely created models/plans for its closure, and basically are just waiting to see what the cost benefit is at the time EK moves.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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United787
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:02 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Very unlikely ORD will, as it's trend has been in the exact opposite trajectory, with LAX having surpassed it yet again.


ORD's growth had been constrained by it's runway configuration but that is mostly now fixed with 5 parallel runways and a 6th approved but not scheduled yet.

Now ORD is constrained by it's terminal capacity but the City is working on that problem and we may see something soon. There is plenty of land to work with.

ORD has a lot of potential: 1) massive O&D (no not as much as LAX but still huge) 2) lots of physical room for growth 3) geographically located for mid-continent connections

LAX, SFO, EWR, JFK & LGA all have #1 but not #2 or #3.
DFW, DEN, IAH have all 3 but the #1 isn't as big...
 
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ro1960
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:23 pm

The future airports at MEX and IST will definitely beat LAX upon completion. 6 runways, 120M and 150M pax respectively. LAX will never get to these figures.
You may like my airport photos:
https://www.flickr.com/photos/aeroports
 
Braniff1
Posts: 98
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Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:46 pm

Is there any airport, US that is worse than LAX for entering customs? It is a 3rd world experience; very inefficient.
 
globalcabotage
Posts: 534
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 10:42 pm

Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:48 pm

Sure, LAX could given huge O&D and Intermational connections.

DFW has room for growth, but 1 carrier.
ORD now has the runways and someday the gates.
China: BJS and PVG will keep booming.
IST: Didn't think of that, but makes sense.
DXB: Me thinks the ME3 bubble is bursting. AI, as incompetent as they are/were, is striking back.

But we all know DTW when DL realizes the gold mine they are sitting on gets full potential is an easy 130M passengers per year.
 
32andBelow
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Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: Could LAX Become The Worlds Busiest Airport?

Sat Jun 17, 2017 12:03 am

Braniff1 wrote:
Is there any airport, US that is worse than LAX for entering customs? It is a 3rd world experience; very inefficient.

Do you people even understand how insane you sound sometimes? No one gives a shit about if the customs experience is good.

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