factsonly wrote:intothinair wrote:I wonder if in the next 5 years FRA can claw this position back from AMS. They dont have the same constraints, and with Ryanair massively expanding from H2 onwards, its only a matter of time before LH counters with a substantial Eurowings expansion.
While LH is pulling 5x A380s ??[/quothr ]
Those are being replaced with A340s if i am not mistaken, and some of the routes may increase in frequency.
A lot of it will depend on how Fraport negotiates with LCCs over the coming years. Part of the reason especially AMS has grown rapidly over past 10 years has been due to a huge influx of LCCs. FRAs LCC share is less than 1% presently.
A couple of other reasons i could think of which should drive substantial growth over coming years at FRA:
A. FRA has no slot constraints at the moment
B. German economy is on an upswing cycle, with some economists pointing to growth of >2.5% this year. This will not only benefit FRA but whole of Germany
C. Although not confirmed, rumors are increasingly strong that a lot of British Banking jobs will locate to FRA over coming years due to Brexit. With London's fantastic Banking infrastructure it remains to be seen how many Banks do really relocate jobs to Frankfurt / Paris, but if they do, this will no doubt increase business travels to the hub
D. Slot constraints at MUC. Part of the reason LH A380s are being transfered to MUC is because of the slot contraints they are facing. The same way MUC expanded rapidly in the 90s and 2000s due to severe slot shortage at FRA, the opposite seems to ring true for now (till 3rd runway is built). This could mean that LH could potentially focus on more FRA expansion over coming years.
Again, these are just my thoughts, so please dont flame me ya. Happy weekend
