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cvgComair
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Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:12 pm

It looks like the last DL PHL-LHR flight will depart on March 23, 2018 and will return to PHL the following day. Currently there is not a bookable departure for the 757 out of PHL, so that does not give any hints about what the LHR slots could be used for. Loads have been awful on PHL-LHR, with many months below 50%, I am sure DL cannot wait to shift the slots elsewhere.

I find it interesting that Delta bought 5 slots to LHR, which it will receive on October 30, 2017 and now will have 7 more on March 24, 2017. So far, they have not announced any of their plans for these slots. The three options would be leasing/selling them, upping frequency on existing routes, or possibly adding new routes. What seems the most likely and what cities specifically seem the most likely?

For the 5x/week slots, DL has 5 morning arrivals on Sun/Tue/Wed/Thurs/Sat, which allows for Mon/Tue/Wed/Fri/Sat departures from a US station. The PHL slots give daily evening US arrivals for daily early morning arrivals into LHR.
 
commavia
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:25 pm

Hardly surprising. It was long clear that Delta was only keeping this route to claim the slots divested from AA/BA. I can't remember what the terms of the AA/BA JV remedy were - does Delta get to keep these slots now, or do they have to be returned to AA/BA? In the meantime, this should help the AA/BA JV out of PHL.
Last edited by commavia on Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:28 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
TerminalD
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:26 pm

1) no surprise
2) loads were awful
3) I think this shows the VS deal is a disappointment. It was intended to save routes like this. Problem is VS is getting weaker in the U.K. due to route changes and there were never any decent connections.

Eventually I expect they will start selling slots.
 
msycajun
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:29 pm

It would be great to see CVG get a flight to LHR. I wouldn't be surprised to see DL try to push AA off of RDU-LHR as well. It's hard to imagine any other medium airport getting it with few connections and loyal fliers on the LHR end. Most of the US hubs have plenty of service already. There is also the possibility of leasing some slots to VS to build some onward connecting possibilities.
 
Jshank83
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:34 pm

I am going to throw this out there with the caveat I know little about BNA. But I know they have been trying to get TATL service and they have been growing their DL route tree lately (Seattle, Boston, RDU). I think everyone assumes they are in the running for BA but maybe DL would start there instead?
 
SonomaFlyer
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:34 pm

TerminalD wrote:
1) no surprise
2) loads were awful
3) I think this shows the VS deal is a disappointment. It was intended to save routes like this. Problem is VS is getting weaker in the U.K. due to route changes and there were never any decent connections.

Eventually I expect they will start selling slots.


I'm not sure why you'd say this route specifically would be helped by the VS joint venture. VS doesn't fly to PHL and this isn't a Sky Team hub, this was simply a slot snatch during the BA/AA divestiture.

So long as DL can rotate slots between itself and VS, I don't see the slots being sold. If they must be flown by DL and are restricted in some way by destination or region, that might be a different question.
 
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klm617
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:39 pm

I hope this means they can go back to double daily from Detroit
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globalcabotage
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:40 pm

Surprised it lasted this long. At least they gave PHL a shot, they dropped winter seasonal ORD before it started (not sure how they keep ORD-CDG in winter).
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:44 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
I am going to throw this out there with the caveat I know little about BNA. But I know they have been trying to get TATL service and they have been growing their DL route tree lately (Seattle, Boston, RDU). I think everyone assumes they are in the running for BA but maybe DL would start there instead?


I don't know how interested DL is in mid-sized cities, but I would think they might chose IND before BNA because of the frequent flyer base in IND let over from the DL/NW focus city in IND that existed up until the 2010s. However, DL is unlikely do to the lack of connections available at LHR.

However, I have not heard BNA or IND mention anything about DL doing int'l flights only BA and LH are being mentioned so who knows?

All other major areas are well served to LHR, and I don't think DL would add SEA-LHR with VS on the route already, and I don't see DL being willing to take connecting pax away from CDG...

So they may just lease the gates...
Last edited by Midwestindy on Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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usflyer msp
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:50 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
I am going to throw this out there with the caveat I know little about BNA. But I know they have been trying to get TATL service and they have been growing their DL route tree lately (Seattle, Boston, RDU). I think everyone assumes they are in the running for BA but maybe DL would start there instead?


If DL is going to fly from medium-sized US cities to Europe - it is going to be to AMS or CDG. They are not going to be solely depend upon O&D traffic (one of the problems with PHL-LHR)...
 
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chrisnh
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:58 pm

The Boston flight on a 767-300 doesn't do well either, but there are a lot more seats BOS-LHR than PHL-LHR. But I hear that the front of the plane somewhat pays for the weakness in the back.

Maybe they'll have that plane do Boston-Italy with the expectation that Alitalia goes away.
Last edited by chrisnh on Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Noise
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:59 pm

Send that bird over to RDU...I'm sure they wouldn't mind some competition on the RDU-LHR route. Better yet, start RDU-AMS.
 
panamair
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:59 pm

TerminalD wrote:
3) I think this shows the VS deal is a disappointment. It was intended to save routes like this. .


Huh? there is nothing to 'save' here - neither DL nor VS ever operated a route such as PHL-LHR, and absent the required AA/BA slot divestiture, they would never have even considered offering a route like PHL-LHR with their own slots...

VS deal a disappointment? Not only is DL making some additional non-operating profits every quarter because of the investment, the VS deal has actually made Delta a key player in the all-important NYC-LHR market. It is because of VS that DL is able to offer a combined 9 daily flights between NYC and LHR, making them a very credible alternative to AA/BA for the lucrative corporate business in this market...
 
axiom
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:06 am

As commavia suggested, this was expected. DL started PHL-LHR in 2014 after the AA/US merger required the latter to divest a LHR slot. The terms were that DL had to operate the flight for 6 IATA seasons (3 years), after which they could redeploy the slot on a route of their selection. Ergo...

Anyone care to confirm my facts on this? Running on memory.
 
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adamh8297
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:10 am

chrisnh wrote:
The Boston flight on a 767-300 doesn't do well either, but there are a lot more seats BOS-LHR than PHL-LHR. But I hear that the front of the plane somewhat pays for the weakness in the back.

Maybe they'll have that plane do Boston-Italy with the expectation that Alitalia goes away.


I think year round BOS-DUB may be more likely. People like to visit DUB year round (BOS not so much).

Longest 752 flight is JFK-ARN on DL which is 200 statute miles shorter than BOS-FCO. Also I think DY is going to launch BOS-FCO for S18.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:13 am

I wouldn't rule MCO out on this, they posted not too long ago via social media that they wanted input on whether GOAA should pursue it, and towards the end of the survey when I took it, there was a lot of support over not. MCO-LHR on a 76W or VS 333 is very doable.
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panamair
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:17 am

axiom wrote:
As commavia suggested, this was expected. DL started PHL-LHR in 2014 after the AA/US merger required the latter to divest a LHR slot. The terms were that DL had to operate the flight for 6 IATA seasons (3 years), after which they could redeploy the slot on a route of their selection. Ergo...

Anyone care to confirm my facts on this? Running on memory.


I believe you are correct that the EU stipulation was that after 6 consecutive IATA seasons, the new entrant would have grandfather rights to these remedy slots. Delta started PHL-LHR April 2015, so ending it by March 23 2018 would be exactly 6 IATA seasons.
 
MAH4546
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:18 am

I believe the BOS-LHR slot returns to AA/BA in March 2018. Makes sense. If this one can be reallocated, then this is how DL can keep flying BOS-LHR.
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enilria
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:36 am

SonomaFlyer wrote:
TerminalD wrote:
1) no surprise
2) loads were awful
3) I think this shows the VS deal is a disappointment. It was intended to save routes like this. Problem is VS is getting weaker in the U.K. due to route changes and there were never any decent connections.

Eventually I expect they will start selling slots.


I'm not sure why you'd say this route specifically would be helped by the VS joint venture. VS doesn't fly to PHL and this isn't a Sky Team hub, this was simply a slot snatch during the BA/AA divestiture.

So long as DL can rotate slots between itself and VS, I don't see the slots being sold. If they must be flown by DL and are restricted in some way by destination or region, that might be a different question.

DL sunk sunk a lot of money into VS to gain U.K. point of sale strength for their London flights and attaching the VS brand halo. The reverse also gave VS flights to the USA a leg up.

This is a perfect example of what the DL-VS deal was supposed to save because DL has little point of sale strength in PHL and had nearly zero in LHR. The VS deal was supposed to prop up the U.K. end of the route so it would improve enough to survive.

If you think DL bought VS for some other reason I'd love to hear what it was? They don't provide any connectivity. They provide a trove of slots, but they have struggled to use many of them. The MAN focus city is arguably not very successful. The benefit was clearly being able to improve the DL point of sale in the U.K. and it wasn't enough to save PHL. That's a black mark. Doesn't mean the whole deal is a failure. It means it's not as strong a benefit as they hoped.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:41 am

panamair wrote:
TerminalD wrote:
3) I think this shows the VS deal is a disappointment. It was intended to save routes like this. .


Huh? there is nothing to 'save' here - neither DL nor VS ever operated a route such as PHL-LHR, and absent the required AA/BA slot divestiture, they would never have even considered offering a route like PHL-LHR with their own slots...

VS deal a disappointment? Not only is DL making some additional non-operating profits every quarter because of the investment, the VS deal has actually made Delta a key player in the all-important NYC-LHR market. It is because of VS that DL is able to offer a combined 9 daily flights between NYC and LHR, making them a very credible alternative to AA/BA for the lucrative corporate business in this market...


Wow that poster is drawing a lot of conclusions. 1 757 (not even daily year round) being dropped is indicative of the entire VS deal being a failure. It was a slot grab, nothing more. DL also got cash to support the route for a while.
 
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:44 am

enilria wrote:
SonomaFlyer wrote:
TerminalD wrote:
1) no surprise
2) loads were awful
3) I think this shows the VS deal is a disappointment. It was intended to save routes like this. Problem is VS is getting weaker in the U.K. due to route changes and there were never any decent connections.

Eventually I expect they will start selling slots.


I'm not sure why you'd say this route specifically would be helped by the VS joint venture. VS doesn't fly to PHL and this isn't a Sky Team hub, this was simply a slot snatch during the BA/AA divestiture.

So long as DL can rotate slots between itself and VS, I don't see the slots being sold. If they must be flown by DL and are restricted in some way by destination or region, that might be a different question.

DL sunk sunk a lot of money into VS to gain U.K. point of sale strength for their London flights and attaching the VS brand halo. The reverse also gave VS flights to the USA a leg up.

This is a perfect example of what the DL-VS deal was supposed to save because DL has little point of sale strength in PHL and had nearly zero in LHR. The VS deal was supposed to prop up the U.K. end of the route so it would improve enough to survive.

If you think DL bought VS for some other reason I'd love to hear what it was? They don't provide any connectivity. They provide a trove of slots, but they have struggled to use many of them. The MAN focus city is arguably not very successful. The benefit was clearly being able to improve the DL point of sale in the U.K. and it wasn't enough to save PHL. That's a black mark. Doesn't mean the whole deal is a failure. It means it's not as strong a benefit as they hoped.


But the VS deal won't work everywhere, it hasn't worked in ORD, either. That doesn't mean it isn't working as a whole. If DL and VS weren't happy, why did they just acquire more slots? They are going to move their very valuable resources to more profitable (or even less unprofitable, if you like) operations.
 
kavok
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:45 am

The PHL market is 2x or 3x bigger than IND, BNA, etc. If DL cannot make the larger PHL-LHR market work, why do people think midsize cities like IND, BNA, etc. could work? The common denominator between all is the lack of DL connections on the US side.

That being said, DL could use these slots to add more frequencies at their hubs, as many of their hubs could probably absorb the market for more LHR service.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:49 am

kavok wrote:
The PHL market is 2x or 3x bigger than IND, BNA, etc. If DL cannot make the larger PHL-LHR market work, why do people think midsize cities like IND, BNA, etc. could work? The common denominator between all is the lack of DL connections on the US side.

That being said, DL could use these slots to add more frequencies at their hubs, as many of their hubs could probably absorb the market for more LHR service.


The thinking is that 100 percent of an IND-type market is better than some not-so-good share at PHL. I don't buy it, though. This slot seems destined for a hub.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 1:02 am

kavok wrote:
The PHL market is 2x or 3x bigger than IND, BNA, etc. If DL cannot make the larger PHL-LHR market work, why do people think midsize cities like IND, BNA, etc. could work? The common denominator between all is the lack of DL connections on the US side.

That being said, DL could use these slots to add more frequencies at their hubs, as many of their hubs could probably absorb the market for more LHR service.


I am not sure who you are ranting at, considering I don't think anyone said IND, BNA, e.t.c would happen...
But the market you are talking about is dominated by BA on one end and AA on the other with loyal FF for BA and AA in PHL and LHR, add on no DL loyalty on either end and it was destined to do poorly, neither of those cities have the same problem and are majority DL medallion members... HOWEVER I am not saying it is likely to happen.

However, according to the RDU thread DL is changing RDU from a focus city to hub on January 1, so the added connections would possibly help the chances of DL on RDU-LHR
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commavia
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 1:11 am

usflyer msp wrote:
If DL is going to fly from medium-sized US cities to Europe - it is going to be to AMS or CDG. They are not going to be solely depend upon O&D traffic (one of the problems with PHL-LHR)...


I completely agree. I don't see Delta being too adventurous in linking all but perhaps the largest non-hub U.S. gateways - and first and foremost hubs - to LHR given the lack of beyond connectivity and the structural, insurmountable sales advantage that AA/BA will naturally have in the U.K. The one non-hub U.S. gateway market that seems the most plausible is, in fact, RDU - owing to Delta's growing presence there and the well known strength of the local market, but even there it seems like somewhat of a stretch given the significant AA/BA nonstop capacity and, again, that JV's massive connectivity advantage at LHR.

flymco753 wrote:
I wouldn't rule MCO out on this, they posted not too long ago via social media that they wanted input on whether GOAA should pursue it, and towards the end of the survey when I took it, there was a lot of support over not. MCO-LHR on a 76W or VS 333 is very doable.


I would rule MCO out. I would be absolutely shocked to see Delta and Virgin "waste" a precious LHR slot on MCO given that the market skews heavily leisure and heavily O&D, and given the apparent/implied preferred consumer preference for LGW. If either BA or Virgin had, at any time in the past, felt MCO was a worthwhile use of a LHR slot pair, either could have easily switched one of their multiple daily MCO flights from LGW, but neither has. I think Delta is quite happy to maintain its joint presence in the overall LON-MCO market with its JV partner Virgin at LGW.

panamair wrote:
I believe you are correct that the EU stipulation was that after 6 consecutive IATA seasons, the new entrant would have grandfather rights to these remedy slots. Delta started PHL-LHR April 2015, so ending it by March 23 2018 would be exactly 6 IATA seasons.


If I'm reading the documents correctly, the EU's final order did, indeed, require six consecutive IATA seasons of continuous operation:

As a general rule, the Slots obtained by a prospective entrant under the final Commitments must be used to provide a non-stop scheduled passenger air transport service operated on the London Heathrow – Philadelphia airport pair and cannot be used on another city pair unless the prospective entrant has operated such service during the Utilization Period (six consecutive IATA seasons). Once the Utilization Period has elapsed, the prospective entrant will be entitled to use the Slots on any city pair ("grandfathering"). (emphasis mine)

However, notably, the U.S. final order appears to require eight consecutive seasons of continuous operation:

The slots would be available to any duly licensed carrier to serve the market on a nonstop basis. A carrier that successfully utilizes the slots for eight consecutive scheduling seasons in the London-Philadelphia market may obtain grandfather rights to use the slots. The Department finds that the Commission’s remedy addresses the competitive concerns we have identified in the London-Philadelphia market. (emphasis mine)

And, sure enough, the EU final order - dated 5 August 2013 - contains a footnote at the bottom of the page (37) stating:

The Commitments of 17 July set out a longer Utilization Period (eight consecutive IATA seasons) after which a prospective entrant would have acquired grandfathering rights over the slots. (emphasis mine)

So if, in fact, the requirement was eight seasons rather than six, I don't think Delta would have fulfilled its requirements to get grandfathering rights since Delta's nonstop flight began on 8 April 2015. I'm sure this was discussed at the time - it's just been a few years and I can't remember what exactly the "deal" was that to which all the parties agreed.

Hmmm ...

enilria wrote:
This is a perfect example of what the DL-VS deal was supposed to save


No it's not. Virgin was always pretty much meaningless to a market like PHL-LHR, and if anything only barely provided any sales support in the U.K. for a small market where neither Delta nor Virgin America had any meaningful, historical presence to/from the U.K. Rather, as said by others repeatedly, the PHL-LHR route was always about the prime LHR slot pair - and never had anything to do with Virgin.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 1:16 am

Midwestindy wrote:
However, according to the RDU thread DL is changing RDU from a focus city to hub on January 1, so the added connections would possibly help the chances of DL on RDU-LHR


A label change for the station is not a magic wand that will make the flight succeed. The market remains nowhere near large enough for two carriers, and AA has a number of structural advatanges on both ends.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 1:23 am

Cubsrule wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
However, according to the RDU thread DL is changing RDU from a focus city to hub on January 1, so the added connections would possibly help the chances of DL on RDU-LHR


A label change for the station is not a magic wand that will make the flight succeed. The market remains nowhere near large enough for two carriers, and AA has a number of structural advatanges on both ends.


The possible added connections associated with RDU becoming a hub, not the word itself.
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Cubsrule
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 1:38 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
However, according to the RDU thread DL is changing RDU from a focus city to hub on January 1, so the added connections would possibly help the chances of DL on RDU-LHR


A label change for the station is not a magic wand that will make the flight succeed. The market remains nowhere near large enough for two carriers, and AA has a number of structural advatanges on both ends.


The possible added connections associated with RDU becoming a hub, not the word itself.


What added connections are we talking about? Stuff like JAX or SAV might make a difference. SAN or IAH won't.
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 1:38 am

TerminalD wrote:
1) no surprise
2) loads were awful
3) I think this shows the VS deal is a disappointment. It was intended to save routes like this. Problem is VS is getting weaker in the U.K. due to route changes and there were never any decent connections.

Eventually I expect they will start selling slots.


I sincerely doubt it. They would most likely move them to AF/KL.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 1:50 am

Midwestindy wrote:
according to the RDU thread DL is changing RDU from a focus city to hub on January 1

Source?


commavia wrote:
I would rule MCO out. I would be absolutely shocked to see Delta and Virgin "waste" a precious LHR slot on MCO given that the market skews heavily leisure and heavily O&D, and given the apparent/implied preferred consumer preference for LGW. If either BA or Virgin had, at any time in the past, felt MCO was a worthwhile use of a LHR slot pair, either could have easily switched one of their multiple daily MCO flights from LGW, but neither has.

People, including Rod Eddington, once said the same about LAS in terms of LHR....
....until they actually tried it. Now they run a 744.

I wouldn't be all that surprised if between the three of them (BA/VS/DL) at least one attempted LHR in the relatively near future.

After all, it's a 3.1million person CSA with plenty of headquarters and large corporate presences. There's more to it than just Mouse.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Wingtips56
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:14 am

So, with reference to Commavia's post noting the "... Eight Consecutive Scheduling Seasons ....", what does happen with DL closing the route in six seasons? Does the slot indeed revert to AA? I was surprised to see just now that AA has two non-stops, plus the BA non-stop. Would AA want it, bringing it up to 4x BA/AA non-stops? Can they move it to another U.S. city?
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MAH4546
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:21 am

Wingtips56 wrote:
So, with reference to Commavia's post noting the "... Eight Consecutive Scheduling Seasons ....", what does happen with DL closing the route in six seasons? Does the slot indeed revert to AA? I was surprised to see just now that AA has two non-stops, plus the BA non-stop. Would AA want it, bringing it up to 4x BA/AA non-stops? Can they move it to another U.S. city?


The slot permanently reverts to AA in 2024 regardless.

DL's BOSLHR slot reverts to AA this coming March.
a.
 
crownvic
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:49 am

Then there was the air fare on this route. The few times I tried to book PHL-LHR on DL, the C Class fare was through the roof. It seemed like you were penalized, if you tried to book this flight vs other flights. It's a new problem I am seeing increasing with the use of smaller equipment, on international flights and it will only get worse as a/c like the 747 disappear. The fare on DL to MNL from most U.S. cities has now doubled, since the route was downgraded from a 744 to a 763.
 
Flighty
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 3:31 am

kavok wrote:
The PHL market is 2x or 3x bigger than IND, BNA, etc. If DL cannot make the larger PHL-LHR market work, why do people think midsize cities like IND, BNA, etc. could work? The common denominator between all is the lack of DL connections on the US side.

That being said, DL could use these slots to add more frequencies at their hubs, as many of their hubs could probably absorb the market for more LHR service.


Could not disagree more. You are ignoring the dominance of AA and BA on the PHL-LHR route. So you are ignoring the whole story, pretty much.
 
IPFreely
Posts: 2630
Joined: Sun Dec 24, 2006 8:26 am

Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 3:48 am

klm617 wrote:
I hope this means they can go back to double daily from Detroit


They're already double daily on DTW-LHR 3 days a week for 10 weekly flights. I think any additional LHR flights would go to ATL.
 
phluser
Posts: 617
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 3:49 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
I am going to throw this out there with the caveat I know little about BNA. But I know they have been trying to get TATL service and they have been growing their DL route tree lately (Seattle, Boston, RDU). I think everyone assumes they are in the running for BA but maybe DL would start there instead?


I don't know how interested DL is in mid-sized cities, but I would think they might chose IND before BNA because of the frequent flyer base in IND let over from the DL/NW focus city in IND that existed up until the 2010s. However, DL is unlikely do to the lack of connections available at LHR.


But between the two, wouldn't BNA have more leisure appeal, for Brits traveling to the US, which could help DL fill more O&D seats?
 
atl100million
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 3:49 am

This thread comes right at the same time as the DOT top US-International Air Routes which highlights that DL on its own metal or via Virgin Atlantic has a presence in every one of the top US transatlantic markets that are also served by US carriers (DXB excluded)
Atlantic
1. JFK-LHR - 2.887,496 (-4%)
2. LAX-LHR - 1,520,350 (-5%)
3. JFK-CDG - 1,421,349 (-5%)
4. ORD-LHR - 1,037,444 +1%
5. MIA-LHR - 992,530 +/-00
6. SFO-LHR - 989,098 (-3%)
7. EWR-LHR - 917,473 (-6%)
8. IAD-LHR - 827,746 (-2%)
9. JFK-DXB - 812,124 +7%
10.BOS-LHR - 791,190 (-6%)

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1366471

considering that DL did not serve LHR just 10 years ago, they have made enormous progress in growing into the top US global markets which clearly are heavily dominated by LHR. The VS equity investment and the JV are doing exactly what they were intended to do which is to give DL a presence in the top markets. The cost of investment was less than the value of the LHR slots so it is all the more telling that DL has taken advantage of every opportunity to grow its LHR presence which with VS covers nearly all of the major US-LHR markets except for to/from Texas.

PHL-LHR was always about gaining access to a slot that DL could use for less than the cost of acquiring a slot. None of us know at this point what DL's intentions are with PHL or the slots but it is clear that DL was not operating a flight for this long if it didn't see long-term strategic value in doing so. The chances are very high that DL will announce some LHR service additions for 2018 beyond what is involved with PHL-LHR.

DL also operates PHL-CDG on a seasonal basis so there is critical mass in PHL that DL is not likely to walk away from even if PHL-LHR ends.
I doubt that we are looking at the end of DL/Skyteam year round international service from PHL.
 
F27500
Posts: 831
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 5:34 am

Stupid route for Delta. They have -nothing- at either end of this route (for connections) .. complete waste of a plane and slot.

Besides ... PHL-LHR in a cramped, crappy old 757 up against the 777s, 787s and A330s of their competitors ... byeee , Delta!
 
Armodeen
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 5:45 am

Not surprised, when I flew this route the load was 44 pax!
 
ASFlyer
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 5:46 am

Midwestindy wrote:
However, according to the RDU thread DL is changing RDU from a focus city to hub on January 1, so the added connections would possibly help the chances of DL on RDU-LHR


One person on that thread is saying that DL is changing RDU from a focus city to a "tier 1 hub" - and they claim to have heard from a friend that's in management with DL at RDU airport. Not really a sure thing by any stretch of the imagination.
 
David_itl
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 8:59 am

enilria wrote:
If you think DL bought VS for some other reason I'd love to hear what it was? They don't provide any connectivity. They provide a trove of slots, but they have struggled to use many of them. The MAN focus city is arguably not very successful. The benefit was clearly being able to improve the DL point of sale in the U.K. and it wasn't enough to save PHL. That's a black mark. Doesn't mean the whole deal is a failure. It means it's not as strong a benefit as they hoped.


Using the T-100 stats for 2016, I've worked out the following seat factors for the combined DL/VS routes to the United Kingdom. I will leave you to judge if MAN is "not very successful"

BFS 91.92% loads (limited Orlando service)
EDI 78.32% loads
LGW 81.39% loads
LHR 71.79% loads
MAN 81.29% loads
 
Andy33
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 9:25 am

As we all know, loads are important, but revenue is even more so. If you can't fill a flight to your desired load factor by cutting the fares until people do book in sufficient numbers, the route really isn't worth operating at all, or requires a different, smaller, aircraft type. But if you cut the fares so much that the revenue is below the operating cost, even if the plane is full, it is still not worth operating the route. And there's a part-way position where the route is viable, just, but you can make more money using the assets (planes, crews, slots, gates, whatever) for something else.
So while the loads from MAN and LGW are indeed notably better than those from LHR in this example, because there is far more premium seating provided on the LHR flights than the MAN and LGW ones the revenue for the LHR flights might very well be higher.
 
raylee67
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 9:36 am

panamair wrote:
axiom wrote:
As commavia suggested, this was expected. DL started PHL-LHR in 2014 after the AA/US merger required the latter to divest a LHR slot. The terms were that DL had to operate the flight for 6 IATA seasons (3 years), after which they could redeploy the slot on a route of their selection. Ergo...

Anyone care to confirm my facts on this? Running on memory.


I believe you are correct that the EU stipulation was that after 6 consecutive IATA seasons, the new entrant would have grandfather rights to these remedy slots. Delta started PHL-LHR April 2015, so ending it by March 23 2018 would be exactly 6 IATA seasons.

In this case, I would imagine that it's in DL's plan all along that they will end PHL-LHR in Mar 2018. They (and everyone) know that there's no way DL can make this profitable, given the BA/AA JV and LHR and PHL being main hubs of the JV. For DL, this is just the cost of acquiring the additional LHR slots. They go for 10s of millions dollars. The loss of running this for 3 years is nothing compare to the cost to buy a pair of slots (at prime time for trans-Atlantic service no less).
319/20/21 332/33 342/43/45 359/51 388 707 717 732/36/3G/38/39 74R/42/43/44/4E/48 757 762/63 772/7L/73/7W 788/89 D10 M80 135/40/45 175/90 DH1/4 CRJ/R7 L10
AY LH OU SR BA FI LX
AA DL UA NW AC CP WS FL NK PD
CI NH SQ KA CX JL BR OZ TG KE CA CZ NZ JQ RS
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 9:41 am

Andy33 wrote:
So while the loads from MAN and LGW are indeed notably better than those from LHR in this example, because there is far more premium seating provided on the LHR flights than the MAN and LGW ones the revenue for the LHR flights might very well be higher.


I expect the substance of the point is correct. However, I should point out that the majority of VS's MAN based fleet is the high premium A333, which is (certainly before the refurb) the most premium heavy configuration in the VS fleet.

VS clearly don't feel like MAN is a yield dump.
 
ZuluTime
Posts: 289
Joined: Mon May 29, 2006 6:23 pm

Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 10:08 am

The only point of DL ever flying the route was to get the LHR slot on offer. After six seasons (and it was six, despite an effort to extend it to eight which failed) then they get perpetual rights to the slot. It does not revert to Aa/BA.

Some of the other remedy slots do revert and the likelihood is that this will only be used to cover the BOS slot which is lost by DL next year.

Operating PHL at a loss was a very cheap way of an LHR slot - certainly far less than the huge amounts AA has been paying to buy LHR slots.
 
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chrisnh
Posts: 4135
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 10:49 am

MAH4546 wrote:
Wingtips56 wrote:
So, with reference to Commavia's post noting the "... Eight Consecutive Scheduling Seasons ....", what does happen with DL closing the route in six seasons? Does the slot indeed revert to AA? I was surprised to see just now that AA has two non-stops, plus the BA non-stop. Would AA want it, bringing it up to 4x BA/AA non-stops? Can they move it to another U.S. city?


The slot permanently reverts to AA in 2024 regardless.

DL's BOSLHR slot reverts to AA this coming March.


With all the new ways of getting from BOS to the rest of the world, is that slot still wanted or needed by ANYONE?
 
Eirules
Posts: 1950
Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2007 5:17 am

Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 11:17 am

Is there any chance VS could start LAS from LHR with some of the DL slots? They do ok from LGW & MAN and with BA now 10x weekly from LHR it could work, though I know BA are getting connections which VS isn't
The way you cut your meat reflects the way you live....
 
Cebo29
Posts: 99
Joined: Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:11 am

Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 11:22 am

The rumors of RDU becoming a "tier1" hub have been going on for a while. RDU-AMS rumors are getting stronger.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8533
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 11:24 am

chrisnh wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
Wingtips56 wrote:
So, with reference to Commavia's post noting the "... Eight Consecutive Scheduling Seasons ....", what does happen with DL closing the route in six seasons? Does the slot indeed revert to AA? I was surprised to see just now that AA has two non-stops, plus the BA non-stop. Would AA want it, bringing it up to 4x BA/AA non-stops? Can they move it to another U.S. city?


The slot permanently reverts to AA in 2024 regardless.

DL's BOSLHR slot reverts to AA this coming March.


With all the new ways of getting from BOS to the rest of the world, is that slot still wanted or needed by ANYONE?


See post #38. It's a top 10 route. In spite of AA/BA competition that is a route DL/VS should operate.
 
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klm617
Posts: 5256
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Re: Delta Ending PHL-LHR on March 23, 2018

Sat Jun 24, 2017 11:38 am

IPFreely wrote:
klm617 wrote:
I hope this means they can go back to double daily from Detroit


They're already double daily on DTW-LHR 3 days a week for 10 weekly flights. I think any additional LHR flights would go to ATL.


DTW-LHR is an underserved market even the WCAA lists it as an initiative to bring more capacity into the market. DTW-LON was two daily for decades until Delta took it over and ever since it has been 10 or less. It was only last summer with VS that it was double daily through the entire summer. Hopefully we can get back to double daily as it has been since the late 50's up until the DL take over of NW
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