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Channex757
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Re: China buys 100 A320s, 40 A350s

Thu Jul 06, 2017 7:51 am

gloom wrote:
Side note on A350s - most carriers who started with (relatively) low numbers of A350, are now topping up, as is probably with this order as well (CI). An indication of happy customers?

Cheers,
Adam

A combination of that and also options coming due to firm up positions in the delivery queue. There is also now plenty of test data on the XWB-97 engine to offer airlines, so airlines considering the A35K can head towards a decision.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: China buys 100 A320s, 40 A350s

Thu Jul 06, 2017 9:39 am

Slug71 wrote:
Exactly why I think Airbus should bite the bullet and redesign the wings

Except that redesigned wings tend to cost a billion bucks or more... which for a program that already has 9toes arguably in the grave, isn't "biting the bullet," it's suicide.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
leghorn
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Re: China buys 100 A320s, 40 A350s

Thu Jul 06, 2017 10:06 am

Slug71 wrote:
Exactly why I think Airbus should bite the bullet and redesign the wings for the PLUS and lighten where possible. Offer It with smaller fuel tanks and it should make it good for SR. Would be a worthwhile stopgap until new engines come along. Current MLG should be good too.

Might even be worthwhile to do a buy back of A380s and refit them with the new wings and wingbox for resell.

I wouldn't do that. I'd be spending the money on ATR allowing them to build the larger plane which they want to build as it doesn't cost as much and doesn't cannibalise sales of other aircraft in their product range.
Airbus are as healthy now as they can hope to be so they have no excuse really but they still won't let ATR out to play.
 
eamondzhang
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Re: China buys 100 A320s, 40 A350s

Thu Jul 06, 2017 10:08 am

The 40 A350's signed are believed to be the confirmation of previously-announced MoUs by CZ and MU, 20 for each.
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: China buys 100 A320s, 40 A350s

Thu Jul 06, 2017 10:13 am

eamondzhang wrote:
The 40 A350's signed are believed to be the confirmation of previously-announced MoUs by CZ and MU, 20 for each.


Negative, both orders are already in the books.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
PhoenixVIP
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Re: China buys 100 A320s, 40 A350s

Thu Jul 06, 2017 11:52 am

TheGeordielad wrote:
c933103 wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
In short, Enders sees ann opportunity for some A380s in China too, but was not able to announce a deal with today's order.
I wonder if there is a real possibility or if this is just marketing and stockmarket talk. China could probably absorb the capacity, tbh just 100 A320 is on the low side. 40 A350 fit the expectation much more.

Given CZ's exerience with A380, doubt it. Although CA might be able to make that work but they already have 748.

Doubt CA would make it work too because aren't they having trouble placing all on services.


That is untrue. CA have the 748 which works extremely well on the American routes and are taking delivery of high density 77Ws. There was talks many years back about wet leasing a CZ A380 for use on PEK - CDG however that fell through when they couldn't reach agreement with CZ about costs and crewing. Because of CA's market share and protection there is essentially no need for it to buy A380s however would make it easily fit in the fleet if it needed to. PEK - SFO, PEK - JFK, PEK - CDG and PEK - FRA (especially with joint venture with LH) can work extremely well based on current passenger loads.

CZ thought it could operate its A380s from PEK and in time for the Olympics. Neither of that occurred and therefore it is being wasted on the LAX route. However during the Winter, CAN - SYD works very well on the A380. If there was an operator to be suitable for the A380 in China it would have to be CA.
Inspire the truth.
 
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Ab345
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Re: China buys 100 A320s, 40 A350s

Thu Jul 06, 2017 12:16 pm

Although from late 2014 CZ ceo interview for FG:

Being the largest player in China is no guarantee that the carrier always gets its way. One of the most embarrassing setbacks for China Southern is its failure to use the Airbus A380 on long-haul routes out of Beijing since taking delivery of the type in 2011. This is due to regulatory resistance that prevents Chinese carriers from competing directly on international routes.

China Southern’s attempts to jointly operate the A380 with Air China on key routes out of Beijing also failed when Air China insisted that it wanted only to wet-lease the aircraft – a display of increasing rivalry.

The reality is that brewing inside China – beneath the polite nods, gentle applause and friendly smiles – is a fierce battle to become the country’s pre-eminent carrier.

China Southern has been forced to ply its five A380s – the only superjumbos operating in China – on domestic routes from Beijing to Guangzhou and Shenzhen, with only one long-haul service to Los Angeles. Si pledges that China Southern remains determined to one day operate the type effectively.

“My biggest wish is to use the A380s from Beijing to USA and Europe. We have not given up… We’re still fighting hard for it,” he says. “Looking at it from another perspective, whether it’s in the domestic or international market, it raises the brand and influence of China Southern.”


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... an-403690/
 
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Slug71
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Re: China buys 100 A320s, 40 A350s

Thu Jul 06, 2017 6:50 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
Exactly why I think Airbus should bite the bullet and redesign the wings

Except that redesigned wings tend to cost a billion bucks or more... which for a program that already has 9toes arguably in the grave, isn't "biting the bullet," it's suicide.


I disagree on the suicide part. A new wing and wingbox should increase efficiency by about 20%. Maybe more if weight can also be saved elsewhere in the frame. That's without all the strings attached to the 14% offered by the PLUS currently. New engines when ready, should increase efficiency by another 15-20%. So a NEO around 2025 with a new wing could have up to around a 40% increase in efficiency over early A380s. It's likely the only thing to keep the A380 going.
It would make it a lot more attractive to CAS. Not only them but BA, SQ, and maybe even ANA. On top of EK.
20% could also be enough for Qantas and AF to take their remaining birds. I would think 70 sales should be achievable with most going to EK of course. Who have also stated they would make a decent follow on purchase if other Airlines order it. 70 should put a good dent in the cost of a new wing. Especially since the wing box and winglets have now already been worked out. 70 quick sales that is.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: China buys 100 A320s, 40 A350s

Thu Jul 06, 2017 8:25 pm

Slug71 wrote:
It would make it a lot more attractive to CAS. Not only them but BA, SQ, and maybe even ANA.

Sure, but you think Airbus hasn't (1) thought of and (2) proposed this to all of those airlines already, in the first round of gauging demand for an updated A388?

If there was interest, it'd probably be trumpeted from the rooftops.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
mjoelnir
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Re: China buys 100 A320s, 40 A350s

Thu Jul 06, 2017 9:30 pm

I thing the CASM discussion in regards to the A380 is becoming a read Herring. The A380 most of the time has had the better CASM than other wide bodies. It is her size or even only the risk that her size presents, that is preventing airlines from buying it. If CASM would be that important, why are some airlines still buying 777-300ER, that is today really no CASM wonder any longer.
If we look at China and CZ, they were restrained from using the A380 on routes that would have put a competitive pressure an CA and that were exactly those routes CZ wanted to use them on. I can even imagine Hainan, that had ordered 10 A380 threw their subsidiary Hong Kong Airlines, got perhaps a governmental warning in regards of their possible use.
 
c933103
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Re: China buys 100 A320s, 40 A350s

Thu Jul 06, 2017 10:26 pm

The thign about any redesign, reoptimizing, or improvement on A380 is that it probably cannot sell more than two digits given the past records of recent quad VLA. Even if there are actual market for such an aircraft, investors won't be convinced to further sink money into this thing.
The message in signature have been removed according to demand.
 
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Slug71
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Re: China buys 100 A320s, 40 A350s

Thu Jul 06, 2017 10:32 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
It would make it a lot more attractive to CAS. Not only them but BA, SQ, and maybe even ANA.

Sure, but you think Airbus hasn't (1) thought of and (2) proposed this to all of those airlines already, in the first round of gauging demand for an updated A388?

If there was interest, it'd probably be trumpeted from the rooftops.


No doubt. Especially since EK have publicly stated they would like a rewinged NEO. Besides Airbus not wanting to use any current engines, IIRC, Airbus wanted EK to help with the cost of the wing which EK turned down. But I could be wrong. The PLUS was probably a cheaper attempt. Because you'd think they did the same(talk to airlines) prior to launch of the PLUS. Yet we haven't seen the interest. Guess we will just have to wait and see how these talks with CAS goes.

Nice order for Airbus anyways.
 
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Slug71
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Re: China buys 100 A320s, 40 A350s

Thu Jul 06, 2017 10:40 pm

c933103 wrote:
The thign about any redesign, reoptimizing, or improvement on A380 is that it probably cannot sell more than two digits given the past records of recent quad VLA. Even if there are actual market for such an aircraft, investors won't be convinced to further sink money into this thing.


Oil is expected to stay down and probably even drop long term now. That wasn't forecasted until recently and is most likely what is helping the cargo industry and 748F rebound. Low fuel prices has a significant impact.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: China buys 100 A320s, 40 A350s

Thu Jul 06, 2017 11:15 pm

Slug71 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
It would make it a lot more attractive to CAS. Not only them but BA, SQ, and maybe even ANA.

Sure, but you think Airbus hasn't (1) thought of and (2) proposed this to all of those airlines already, in the first round of gauging demand for an updated A388?

If there was interest, it'd probably be trumpeted from the rooftops.


No doubt. Especially since EK have publicly stated they would like a rewinged NEO. Besides Airbus not wanting to use any current engines, IIRC, Airbus wanted EK to help with the cost of the wing which EK turned down. But I could be wrong. The PLUS was probably a cheaper attempt. Because you'd think they did the same(talk to airlines) prior to launch of the PLUS. Yet we haven't seen the interest. Guess we will just have to wait and see how these talks with CAS goes.

Nice order for Airbus anyways.


Emirates asked for re engined A380, the talk about the wing is here on a.net. Airbus does not want to do a neo for one customer only.

We can talk long and broad about how a new wing would cure a drag problem on the A380, but fact is the A380 has the lowest drag per seat of any frame as it is, including the coming 777-9.
 
eamondzhang
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Re: China buys 100 A320s, 40 A350s

Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:53 am

KarelXWB wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
The 40 A350's signed are believed to be the confirmation of previously-announced MoUs by CZ and MU, 20 for each.


Negative, both orders are already in the books.

That's from an internal Airbus source, and the numbers did add up. So that's why I said.
 
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Slug71
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Re: China buys 100 A320s, 40 A350s

Fri Jul 07, 2017 2:18 am

mjoelnir wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Sure, but you think Airbus hasn't (1) thought of and (2) proposed this to all of those airlines already, in the first round of gauging demand for an updated A388?

If there was interest, it'd probably be trumpeted from the rooftops.


No doubt. Especially since EK have publicly stated they would like a rewinged NEO. Besides Airbus not wanting to use any current engines, IIRC, Airbus wanted EK to help with the cost of the wing which EK turned down. But I could be wrong. The PLUS was probably a cheaper attempt. Because you'd think they did the same(talk to airlines) prior to launch of the PLUS. Yet we haven't seen the interest. Guess we will just have to wait and see how these talks with CAS goes.

Nice order for Airbus anyways.


Emirates asked for re engined A380, the talk about the wing is here on a.net. Airbus does not want to do a neo for one customer only.

We can talk long and broad about how a new wing would cure a drag problem on the A380, but fact is the A380 has the lowest drag per seat of any frame as it is, including the coming 777-9.


Regardless, Emirates wanted 8-10% better fuel burn when they were pusing for the NEO a couple of years ago. A new wing would double that and then double it again when an appropriate engine came along. Or close to double anyway.
But it has been mentioned.

http://www.cnn.com/travel/article/airbu ... index.html

I've seen that same article elsewhere before too but can't seem to find it.

This article mentions it too, including that the fuel price predictions were different. They thought it was just going to be a short term spike.

http://www.eturbonews.com/54487/emirate ... our-orders

We should probably move the rest of this discussion to the A380 PLUS thread though. Derailing the thread.

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