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flybynight
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Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 12:40 am

I haven't heard much about AS vs. DL lately (a good thing!), AS seems to be adding flight almost monthly, but DL seems to be slowing down their expansion. Did DL grow too quickly in Seattle, or perhaps AS was very aggressive in keeping it dominance.
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Prost
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 12:42 am

Something about 10lbs. of excrement in a 5 lb. bag comes to mind. There just isn't any more space until the new IAF and Northstar project are complete.
 
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tlecam
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 12:43 am

SLowing down compared to a plan or slowing down compared to the last several years? I have no idea about the former; I think that YOY growth has slowed as routes have reached some level of maturity and that would be expected.
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TerminalD
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:18 am

Yes, slowed down over a year ago.

Not clear if they just ran out of gates or strategy changed.

Now with KE JV SEA is much less important.

Having said all of that I don't think DL will give an inch in SEA. I think Intl was the impetus originally, but it's now the opposite.

flybynight wrote:
I haven't heard much about AS vs. DL lately (a good thing!), AS seems to be adding flight almost monthly, but DL seems to be slowing down their expansion. Did DL grow too quickly in Seattle, or perhaps AS was very aggressive in keeping it dominance.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:28 am

In June 2014, Delta's then VP for Seattle Mike Madeiros said Delta would grow to 150+ peak day flights by 2017. In Jan 2017 Delta announced a schedule of 160 flights.
 
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deltadawg
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 2:06 am

Year over year growth will slow and has slowed in the last 12-18 months. However, this is due in large to maturity of the routes. Also, one has to remember that the first year DL established routes to all its main hubs and focus cities along with most of the main tourist destinations. Moving forward DL will most likely be more prudent and methodical in determining new routes and destinations.
Additionally, it is my understanding that growth for SEA over all is dependent upon airport expansion. I have not been to SEA in the last two years but it is my understanding that the expansion is not finished, correct me if one knows better.
Lastly, we all believe that international travel will be of utmost importance for DL growth at SEA and the incoming A350's will play a key part in such growth most likely. The CS100's coming next year as well I believe will play a key role in the further expansion of SEA. The CS100's will offer DL longer routes with fewer passengers and supposedly better economics. Seattle should be exciting over the next 4-5 years. I believe there will be a lot of news coming out of SEA from both DL and AS as well as others.
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717atOGG
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 2:10 am

I may be biased since I live near SEA but I think things are slowing down a bit on the international side but things are healthy domestically. Alaska's competing by doing a companion fare discount, and Delta's using their international service to win over passengers, based on what I see in ads at SEA. Delta has been adding routes recently though. ORD and AUS started two weeks ago, and MSY, BNA, and LIH are starting in the next few months. While things are kind of bad on the Asia side, there are rumors of NRT and HKG going to the 77E for this winter, and they did this for about a month during Spring 2016. Europe seems healthy though. They have LHR through VS, and CDG got upgauged from A332 to A333, it seems. However, AMS went from A333 to A332. So, overall, SEA seems to be good for both airlines. I think the real growth here has been with international carriers. SEA has got DE to MUC, and is getting EW to CGN, and DY to LGW and OSL is planned. Overall, it seems that SEA growth is slowing a bit but still happening.
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 2:11 am

FWIW, I noticed that Delta's flight to MKE will be upgraded from an E75 to an A319 beginning in April. This is obviously minor, but I had not seen it discussed elsewhere. SAN also gets 2x/daily 717s in addition to the existing E75 service.
 
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 2:19 am

flybynight wrote:
I haven't heard much about AS vs. DL lately (a good thing!), AS seems to be adding flight almost monthly, but DL seems to be slowing down their expansion. Did DL grow too quickly in Seattle, or perhaps AS was very aggressive in keeping it dominance.


Indeed a good thing that the DL vs AS stuff is subsiding, there is room for two & DL will likely never rival AS for the amount of lift out of SEA. That being said, many of the new adds for AS/VX have come from PDX, SAN, SJC, LAX & SFO. Below is a list off VX's website.

Seasonal Routes – Alaska Airlines:
PDX – PHL: Ends Aug 25-26, 2017
PDX – MKE: Ends Aug 25-26, 2017
PDX – BWI: Ends Aug 25-26, 2017

Coming Soon – Virgin America:
DAL – SEA: Starting Aug 27, 2017
SFO – PHL: Starting Aug 31-Sept 1, 2017
LAX – PHL: Starting Sept 1-2, 2017
SFO – MSY: Starting Sept 21, 2017
SFO – BNA: Starting Sept 21, 2017
SFO – IND: Starting Sept 26, 2017
SFO – BWI: Starting Oct 16, 2017
SFO – RDU: Starting Oct 19-20, 2017
SFO – KOA: Starting Dec 14, 2017

Coming Soon - Alaska Airlines:
SFO – MSP: Starting July 18, 2017
SFO – MEX: Starting, August 8, 2017
LAX – MEX: Starting, August 8, 2017
PDX – ABQ: Starting Aug 18, 2017
SNA – ABQ: Starting Aug 18, 2017
SAN – AUS: Starting Aug 27-28, 2017
PDX – DAL: Starting Aug 28, 2017
SAN – OMA: Starting Aug 28, 2017
SJC – AUS: Starting Aug 28, 2017
SJC – TUS: Starting Aug 28-29, 2017
PDX – DTW: Starting Aug 30-31, 2017
SFO – ABQ: Starting Sept 18, 2017
SFO – MCI: Starting Sept 18, 2017
SJC – LAX: Starting Sept 20, 2017
SAN – ABQ: Starting Oct 18, 2017
SAN – MEX: November 6, 2017
PDX – JFK: Starting Nov 6-7, 2017
SAN – MSP: Starting Nov 18, 2017
SAN – MCI: Starting Dec 15, 2017
SAN – STL: Starting Dec 15, 2017
SAN – DAL: Starting Feb 16, 2018
SJC – DAL: Starting Feb 16, 2018

I expect that the constraints of SEA & the need to bolster their California hubs now that they are the West Coasts premiere airline, is why this is happening. I know AS is always looking for new cities to serve, but I expect a lot more of connecting already served dots on their route map first.
707 717 720 727-1/2 737-1/2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9 747-1/2/3/4 757-2/3 767-2/3/4 777-2/3 DC8 DC9 MD80/2/7/8 D10-1/3/4 M11 L10-1/2/5 A300/310/320
AA AC AQ AS BA BD BN CO CS DL EA EZ HA HG HP KL KN MP MW NK NW OZ PA PS QX RC RH RW SA TG TW UA US VS WA WC WN WP YS 8M
 
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 2:35 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
In June 2014, Delta's then VP for Seattle Mike Madeiros said Delta would grow to 150+ peak day flights by 2017. In Jan 2017 Delta announced a schedule of 160 flights.

This.

This has been the short-to-medium term plan communicated publicly by DL and that is what they've reached in the 3 years since. They haven't really given much public guidance beyond the "150 flights on peak days by 2017" mantra, but its reasonable to assume that they are bumping up on the facility limitations to go much beyond that number. They put relatively high frequency into key West Coast and Mountain West markets, they've established higher frequency to their Midwest and East Coast hubs, they've done strategic adds from key markets in the core DL network in the Midwest, South East, and East Coast, and they've added leisure markets that appeal to SEA originating traffic.

For 2018, its reasonable to assume there will continue to be a few strategic additions from their key markets in the Central/Midwest/Southeast/East Coast..

The KE JV doesn't really change the equation in the short-term, there was a rather lengthy thread that went into the reasons why DL will still need to and want to fly their metal into the big 5/6 Asia destinations, particularly in Japan and China where the JV doesn't really have any material impact (NRT, PVG, PEK, HKG)
 
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 2:53 am

Delta's plan at SEA is right on track. Nothing has changed. And the hub is profitable. I know those are shocks to the system for AS homers.

DL just got 2 additional gates on B and they're now open with the installation of in-ground tanking. But beyond that, DL is pretty confined with the multi-gate usage agreements SeaTac has. Do look for continued up-guaging in equipment from CP and OO to mainline.

There will be a few adds domestically here and there where the gate constraints allow. As for International, nothing will be added until the new IFS facility is completed. And based on the Port's handling so far, it won't be done on time. Delta has determined that the current facility cannot handle additional flights at peak hours.
 
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 3:05 am

In fact, the JV allows DL to add frequencies into the major hubs of Asia (and some secondary cities in CN) and rely on KE to handle the Asian feed to Asian hubs just as DL handles feed to the US hubs. Add add 9W to the JV and you have an Asian mirror of DL/AF/KL.
 
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 3:07 am

Once the CSeries come online, you will be hearing much much more about AS vs. DL....
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 4:02 am

Call me skeptical, but I don't think the C-Series will be the "game-changer" that some may think for SEA (or LAX, MSP, DTW, ATL) that some may be hyping it up to be. I feel like we hear the same story that the E-175, and the 717 would be game-changers but they haven't really suddenly opened up new city pairs that weren't previously possible with other aircraft types.

These have proven to be more optimal aircraft that have better matched and balanced frequency and capacity but they haven't opened up a plethora of new city pairs. They've also proven to be an option to balance seasonality in markets to maintain frequency.

The C-Series really isn't going to suddenly open-up markets from SEA that weren't previously feasible with E-175, 717, A319/A320, 738 aircraft.
 
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 4:30 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Call me skeptical, but I don't think the C-Series will be the "game-changer" that some may think for SEA (or LAX, MSP, DTW, ATL) that some may be hyping it up to be. I feel like we hear the same story that the E-175, and the 717 would be game-changers but they haven't really suddenly opened up new city pairs that weren't previously possible with other aircraft types.

These have proven to be more optimal aircraft that have better matched and balanced frequency and capacity but they haven't opened up a plethora of new city pairs. They've also proven to be an option to balance seasonality in markets to maintain frequency.

The C-Series really isn't going to suddenly open-up markets from SEA that weren't previously feasible with E-175, 717, A319/A320, 738 aircraft.


I generally agree. If the CSeries ends up mostly at LAX and SEA, as is what the word around here says, then I would be surprised if they end up on lots of long-and-thin routes. The range of the aircraft may be nice, and it may open up a few new route pairs, but I find it hard to believe that the CSeries will do anything but become a workhorse slotted around the E175 and 717 spectrum of short haul western routes. There's so much RJ flying in DL's western network that I would imagine an ever-so-slight upgauge would be a smart move toward maturing a lot of these city pairs.
300 319 320 321 332 333 345 346 380 717 733 734 735 73G 738 739 744 752 753 762 763 772 77W 788 789 CR2 CR7 CR9 CRK Q400 E175 DC10 MD82 MD90
AA AF AS AY AZ B6 BA BR DL F9 FI GA HA KF LH MI QX SK SN SQ UA US VY WN
 
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:11 am

After trying nonrev HNL-SEA-SFO just to try something different, We'll stick to transfer @ LAX or fly HA. SEA is crowded & dingy and makes both LAX & SFO look elegant. I still can't believe that after all the years that DL/WA/NW flew SFO-HNL, that DL has completely dropped the service except for a 10day period around Xmas. Kudos to both HA & AS for competing with UA and showing that the Hawaii market can be profitable. It's amazing that HA has no problems filling up 6 daily flights from the 3 Bay Area Airports to both HNL & OGG. It's gotta be irritating to DL's (& AA's) Freq Flyers not to be able to fly nonstop in a prime vacation market.
 
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 6:15 am

DL's big expansion into SEA has already occurred. Gates are now maxed out and FIS facilities are maxed out. They are converting B5 and B7 from widebody gates into a gate that can handle two CRJ/ERJ/717 sized aircraft. For people who fly out of SEA a lot, it is apparent that DL has gotten big in SEA. Metering due to volume is now a common theme, and the airport is much more congested than it was 5 years ago. Business for DL is doing just fine, and there are continually turning SEA into a place for connections as well as O&D. DL is trying to stabilize things with what they have now because they are letting the dozens of recently added routes stabilize. The C-Series will probably be used to upgauge a lot of current routes, (SAN, SJC, SFO, PHX, FAI, DEN) and perhaps we will see the OO/CP aircraft open up routes that haven't already. (Maybe OAK, ONT, RNO, DFW, etc.) For now, DL is happy with how SEA is going. They've even added a second Porsche to its high value customer service. AS has enough on their plate with the VX merger and trying to expand in SJC, SAN, and SFO.
 
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 6:42 am

I think everyone was and still is on this hype that DL is out to ruin Alaska. Let's face the facts here. If Delta truly wanted to knock Alaska out, it could easily do so with a few options. One is to outright buy the airline, which they can afford. Or, intentional growth to harm Alaska, which would be a costly move for Delta.

Let's not forget that NW was always a focus on SEA, and SEA was a darling city to NW. I personally don't see DL out to ruin Alaska. I see DL jumping on opportunity. We also should look at how Alaska has done since DL has rapidly added so much to SEA. Both airlines appear to be doing just fine.

Back in the days not long ago, we all talked about the Southwest effect. When Southwest entered PHL, and PIT... We watched US freak out, and even the CEO of US was quoted as saying, "Southwest is trying to kill us." We watched US spend tons of money to fight Southwest, and even pulled some very dirty moves. What eventually happened? Look how America West was hubbed in LAS and PHX, both major Southwest hubs. Parker once told me, you don't fight Southwest, because you will lose. You learn to accept that your neighbor is there to make money, and you keep running the best airline you can.

So, I don't see Alaska pulling out all the stops, nor do I see Alaska reacting like doomsday is approaching. We are watching Alaska continue to expand, better it's products, and deal with its neighbor. Business as usual in a way. Also, Alaska has demonstrated that SEA isn't it's only bread and butter so to speak. Alaska has diversified it's route map, and has really shown Wall Street that it isn't going anywhere but up. I think it's safe to say that the panic switch was being pushed prematurely.
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 7:08 am

I think we'll see the C Series open up a few long, thin markets from SEA as well as LAX where the E75/717 doesn't have the range to do so. I wouldn't be surprised if DL operates a sub-fleet of C300s that will be fitted with IFE/AVOD for the longer markets so they can offer a superior product.

Does SEA have remote gates to help ease crowding?
 
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flybynight
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:58 pm

deltadawg wrote:
Year over year growth will slow and has slowed in the last 12-18 months. However, this is due in large to maturity of the routes. Also, one has to remember that the first year DL established routes to all its main hubs and focus cities along with most of the main tourist destinations. Moving forward DL will most likely be more prudent and methodical in determining new routes and destinations.
Additionally, it is my understanding that growth for SEA over all is dependent upon airport expansion. I have not been to SEA in the last two years but it is my understanding that the expansion is not finished, correct me if one knows better.
Lastly, we all believe that international travel will be of utmost importance for DL growth at SEA and the incoming A350's will play a key part in such growth most likely. The CS100's coming next year as well I believe will play a key role in the further expansion of SEA. The CS100's will offer DL longer routes with fewer passengers and supposedly better economics. Seattle should be exciting over the next 4-5 years. I believe there will be a lot of news coming out of SEA from both DL and AS as well as others.


It will be fun to see the A350 in Seattle ( I don't think one has been at SEA yet). However, with the A350 bigger than the 767 that seems to serve just about all of Asia from SEA, is the Airbus too much for SEA? Or will the efficiency gains offset the 767's lesser capacity? Or perhaps this open up Australia from SEA?

Has DL thought about CPH? Ever since SK left what I believe was a pretty strong route, it seems like a logical expansion. Of course with no partner airline at CPH it might not be ideal.
Heia Norge!
 
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 6:15 pm

laca773 wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised if DL operates a sub-fleet of C300s that will be fitted with IFE/AVOD for the longer markets so they can offer a superior product.


I believe DL is already planning to have AVOD PTVs on all of its C Series aircraft...

http://news.delta.com/delta-orders-stat ... r-c-series

"......The CS100 features a state-of-the-art interior with the largest windows in the single-aisle market, full-spectrum ambient lighting, seatback in-flight entertainment, in-flight Wi-Fi, high-capacity overhead bins and among the widest seats of any narrowbody aircraft...."
 
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 6:17 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
In fact, the JV allows DL to add frequencies into the major hubs of Asia (and some secondary cities in CN) and rely on KE to handle the Asian feed to Asian hubs just as DL handles feed to the US hubs. Add add 9W to the JV and you have an Asian mirror of DL/AF/KL.

The only Asian feed KE would be providing at other Asian hubs are flights to Seoul (which already has nonstops to SEA).
 
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 6:17 pm

n7371f wrote:
Delta's plan at SEA is right on track. Nothing has changed. And the hub is profitable. I know those are shocks to the system for AS homers.


I'm no "AS homer," but I'd be skeptical of the claim that SEA reached profitability that quickly, given the size & scope of expansion over the past several years.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Call me skeptical, but I don't think the C-Series will be the "game-changer" that some may think for SEA (or LAX, MSP, DTW, ATL) that some may be hyping it up to be. I feel like we hear the same story that the E-175, and the 717 would be game-changers but they haven't really suddenly opened up new city pairs that weren't previously possible with other aircraft types.

These have proven to be more optimal aircraft that have better matched and balanced frequency and capacity but they haven't opened up a plethora of new city pairs. They've also proven to be an option to balance seasonality in markets to maintain frequency.

The C-Series really isn't going to suddenly open-up markets from SEA that weren't previously feasible with E-175, 717, A319/A320, 738 aircraft.


IMO, barring an economic recession, the C-Series will most likely be used to build frequency / establish new service / "take over" the 319/320 & 73G/738 on routes like ATL-OAK / SJC / COS, DTW - SNA / PDX, SEA-ORD, etc. Some may call this game changing, but they're the same ones who've predicted LAX-RIC / ALB, etc.
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 6:24 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
In June 2014, Delta's then VP for Seattle Mike Madeiros said Delta would grow to 150+ peak day flights by 2017. In Jan 2017 Delta announced a schedule of 160 flights.


This.

They achieved their expansion goals, essentially booked the facility to capacity, and now the trajectory will naturally plateau to be in line with other hubs.
 
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 6:51 pm

compensateme wrote:
n7371f wrote:
Delta's plan at SEA is right on track. Nothing has changed. And the hub is profitable. I know those are shocks to the system for AS homers.


I'm no "AS homer," but I'd be skeptical of the claim that SEA reached profitability that quickly, given the size & scope of expansion over the past several years.


It may not be hugely profitable or near the system average, but I suspect it did make a profit. Look at AS's growth during that same period, it was enormous, but AS kept turning huge profits. I doubt DL was charging substantially below AS such that it would be unprofitable. I think the SEA market just fundamentally changed during that period and both carriers were able to take advantage of it.
 
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 7:26 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
compensateme wrote:
n7371f wrote:
Delta's plan at SEA is right on track. Nothing has changed. And the hub is profitable. I know those are shocks to the system for AS homers.


I'm no "AS homer," but I'd be skeptical of the claim that SEA reached profitability that quickly, given the size & scope of expansion over the past several years.


It may not be hugely profitable or near the system average, but I suspect it did make a profit. Look at AS's growth during that same period, it was enormous, but AS kept turning huge profits. I doubt DL was charging substantially below AS such that it would be unprofitable. I think the SEA market just fundamentally changed during that period and both carriers were able to take advantage of it.

As a non rev DL is heaven to have at SEA. So much easier than it was back with AS. Just took a flight over 4th of july weekend DTW-SEA with dozens of open seats.
 
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compensateme
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 8:41 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
It may not be hugely profitable or near the system average, but I suspect it did make a profit. Look at AS's growth during that same period, it was enormous, but AS kept turning huge profits. I doubt DL was charging substantially below AS such that it would be unprofitable. I think the SEA market just fundamentally changed during that period and both carriers were able to take advantage of it.


...except that AS already had the infrastructure in place whereas DL had to build it from the ground up. Consider one aspect of that: sales. DL isn't NK -- it can't just add a bunch of flights with the expectation that its low prices will sell itself. Instead, DL has to sell itself to corporate clients, most of which are loyal to AS. Yes, DL's sales teams already had a presence in SEA but it was a drop in the bucket. And while DL has made progress at SEA, as a whole its average fares and loads are still well behind AS.

Over a decade ago, DL decided to focus heavily on NYC, making a bigger push into the market; most analysts agree the market has only become profitable for DL in recent years but maintains thin margins in (in the low single digits). Obviously SEA is not NYC, but it'd be remarkable if DL had been able to achieve profitability that quickly, given the size & scope of the expansion.
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VCEflyboy
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 9:03 pm

I supposed it doesn't help that with the exchange rate being as such Seattle folks can now fly from YVR close to free
 
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 9:46 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Once the CSeries come online, you will be hearing much much more about AS vs. DL....


Besides sipping less fuel and a bit longer legs I don't see why they'd be any big game changer. They're simply a replacement for their DC-9's....I mean 717's. ;)
 
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 9:51 pm

hiflyeras wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Once the CSeries come online, you will be hearing much much more about AS vs. DL....


They're simply a replacement for their DC-9's....I mean 717's. Besides sipping less fuel I don't see why they'd be any game changer.


Seriously? Because they are far more efficient with substantially more range. The only thing similar to a 717 is size.
 
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Thu Jul 06, 2017 10:14 pm

flybynight wrote:
It will be fun to see the A350 in Seattle ( I don't think one has been at SEA yet). However, with the A350 bigger than the 767 that seems to serve just about all of Asia from SEA, is the Airbus too much for SEA? Or will the efficiency gains offset the 767's lesser capacity? Or perhaps this open up Australia from SEA?


I'm not sure you'll be seeing the A350 all that much in SEA. Possibly for HKG, but I believe DL still plans to use the 333NEO from SEA to Asia, with the 350 flying out of DTW and ATL to Asia. Of course, time will tell.
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Fri Jul 07, 2017 2:06 am

jbs2886 wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Once the CSeries come online, you will be hearing much much more about AS vs. DL....


They're simply a replacement for their DC-9's....I mean 717's. Besides sipping less fuel I don't see why they'd be any game changer.


Seriously? Because they are far more efficient with substantially more range. The only thing similar to a 717 is size.

:checkmark: Besides, the 717 isn't being replaced by the C-Series. There may come a time when that is the case, but for now, all indications are of the 717s shifting eastward to ATL, MSP, DTW and NYC.
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Fri Jul 07, 2017 2:20 am

DL built SEA as a gateway to Asia but quickly realized that they needed to build a hub serving enough markets in the US and the world to be able to offer a viable alternative to AS. They have succeeded at doing that. DL competes well in markets where low cost carriers are large because DL sells a global network which has value to many passengers. As much as many people want to think that AS has a loyal following, the reality is that DL has built a decent following in SEA and PDX and most any well-run airline could do the same. People inherently love competition and choice.
DL now carries almost as much local SEA revenue as AS does despite having fewer flights - because DL has more higher value eastern US and international passengers and also uses widebodies. Many pople don't realize that DL's SEA hub has about as many seats to Asia as UA has from ORD and EWR.
DL is at a pause in the end of the number of flights it can add until more gates are added but they can use larger aircraft and the C series particularly will allow small narrowbody flights to operate at seat costs comparable to larger aircraft. DL will undoubtedly add a few more key markets - several Texas cities are undoubtedly on the list.
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Fri Jul 07, 2017 6:42 am

717atOGG wrote:
Alaska's competing by doing a companion fare discount.


That companion fare discount has been a well-advertised benefit of the AS-branded Bank of America Signature Visa card for over 15 years, well before DL set their eyes on SEA.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
mcdu
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:28 pm

OA412 wrote:
flybynight wrote:
It will be fun to see the A350 in Seattle ( I don't think one has been at SEA yet). However, with the A350 bigger than the 767 that seems to serve just about all of Asia from SEA, is the Airbus too much for SEA? Or will the efficiency gains offset the 767's lesser capacity? Or perhaps this open up Australia from SEA?


I'm not sure you'll be seeing the A350 all that much in SEA. Possibly for HKG, but I believe DL still plans to use the 333NEO from SEA to Asia, with the 350 flying out of DTW and ATL to Asia. Of course, time will tell.


Do you have a source for the use of the 330NEO at SEA or is that just speculation? Since you said DL "still plans " you must have a source stating something to that affect?
 
panamair
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:40 pm

mcdu wrote:
OA412 wrote:
flybynight wrote:
It will be fun to see the A350 in Seattle ( I don't think one has been at SEA yet). However, with the A350 bigger than the 767 that seems to serve just about all of Asia from SEA, is the Airbus too much for SEA? Or will the efficiency gains offset the 767's lesser capacity? Or perhaps this open up Australia from SEA?


I'm not sure you'll be seeing the A350 all that much in SEA. Possibly for HKG, but I believe DL still plans to use the 333NEO from SEA to Asia, with the 350 flying out of DTW and ATL to Asia. Of course, time will tell.


Do you have a source for the use of the 330NEO at SEA or is that just speculation? Since you said DL "still plans " you must have a source stating something to that affect?


From the initial press release announcing the order for the A359 and the A339,

http://news.delta.com/delta-adds-a350-9 ... fleet-plan

".........The widebody A330-900neo, an enhancement of Airbus' successful A330 family featuring greater aerodynamic and economic efficiency, will be deployed on medium-haul trans-Atlantic markets as well as select routes connecting the U.S. West Coast and Asia....

Fair to assume that West Coast to Asia would mean mostly SEA to Asia.
 
atl100million
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:55 pm

LAX-HND is scheduled with an A330-300 for several months this fall. Since it has almost the exact same number of seats as the 777-200ER/LR, the two are basically interchangeable on routes up to 13 hours. The A330-300 has been used on SEA-NRT flights and the current engine/max takeoff weight versions could cover most of DL's current SEA-Asia routes except for HKG. There are rumors that the HKG route will be upgraded to a 777 as part of DL's rollout of the premium economy cabin.
 
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Fri Jul 07, 2017 8:18 pm

panamair wrote:
mcdu wrote:
OA412 wrote:

I'm not sure you'll be seeing the A350 all that much in SEA. Possibly for HKG, but I believe DL still plans to use the 333NEO from SEA to Asia, with the 350 flying out of DTW and ATL to Asia. Of course, time will tell.


Do you have a source for the use of the 330NEO at SEA or is that just speculation? Since you said DL "still plans " you must have a source stating something to that affect?


From the initial press release announcing the order for the A359 and the A339,

http://news.delta.com/delta-adds-a350-9 ... fleet-plan

".........The widebody A330-900neo, an enhancement of Airbus' successful A330 family featuring greater aerodynamic and economic efficiency, will be deployed on medium-haul trans-Atlantic markets as well as select routes connecting the U.S. West Coast and Asia....

Fair to assume that West Coast to Asia would mean mostly SEA to Asia.

Thanks, yes that's what I was referencing.
Hughes Airwest - Top Banana In The West
 
n7371f
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Sat Jul 08, 2017 4:24 am

atl100million wrote:
DL built SEA as a gateway to Asia but quickly realized that they needed to build a hub serving enough markets in the US and the world to be able to offer a viable alternative to AS. They have succeeded at doing that. DL competes well in markets where low cost carriers are large because DL sells a global network which has value to many passengers. As much as many people want to think that AS has a loyal following, the reality is that DL has built a decent following in SEA and PDX and most any well-run airline could do the same. People inherently love competition and choice.
DL now carries almost as much local SEA revenue as AS does despite having fewer flights - because DL has more higher value eastern US and international passengers and also uses widebodies. Many pople don't realize that DL's SEA hub has about as many seats to Asia as UA has from ORD and EWR.
DL is at a pause in the end of the number of flights it can add until more gates are added but they can use larger aircraft and the C series particularly will allow small narrowbody flights to operate at seat costs comparable to larger aircraft. DL will undoubtedly add a few more key markets - several Texas cities are undoubtedly on the list.


Not quite.

Research the issue on this site as it's been well documented. In short form, DL launched the SEA INTL hub with expectation that AS would continue to feed DL at SEA. When AS announced further AA cooperation & declined DL requests to cut marketing deals with BA, QA, JL & Emirates, DL and BoD signed off on a plan to build a domestic hub at SEA. Shortly after the initial schedule load, Brad Tilden called Richard Anderson to apologize & say he agreed to the 4 INTL marketing alliance cessations. Anderson referred the call to his legal department and hung up on him.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Sat Jul 08, 2017 4:56 am

n7371f wrote:
atl100million wrote:
DL built SEA as a gateway to Asia but quickly realized that they needed to build a hub serving enough markets in the US and the world to be able to offer a viable alternative to AS. They have succeeded at doing that. DL competes well in markets where low cost carriers are large because DL sells a global network which has value to many passengers. As much as many people want to think that AS has a loyal following, the reality is that DL has built a decent following in SEA and PDX and most any well-run airline could do the same. People inherently love competition and choice.
DL now carries almost as much local SEA revenue as AS does despite having fewer flights - because DL has more higher value eastern US and international passengers and also uses widebodies. Many pople don't realize that DL's SEA hub has about as many seats to Asia as UA has from ORD and EWR.
DL is at a pause in the end of the number of flights it can add until more gates are added but they can use larger aircraft and the C series particularly will allow small narrowbody flights to operate at seat costs comparable to larger aircraft. DL will undoubtedly add a few more key markets - several Texas cities are undoubtedly on the list.


Not quite.

Research the issue on this site as it's been well documented. In short form, DL launched the SEA INTL hub with expectation that AS would continue to feed DL at SEA. When AS announced further AA cooperation & declined DL requests to cut marketing deals with BA, QA, JL & Emirates, DL and BoD signed off on a plan to build a domestic hub at SEA. Shortly after the initial schedule load, Brad Tilden called Richard Anderson to apologize & say he agreed to the 4 INTL marketing alliance cessations. Anderson referred the call to his legal department and hung up on him.


I've heard and read a lot on this saga over the past years, but this has escaped me. I am wondering if somebody can provide a link or take responsibility for providing that insight?
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
ASFlyer
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Sat Jul 08, 2017 7:16 am

n7371f wrote:
Shortly after the initial schedule load, Brad Tilden called Richard Anderson to apologize & say he agreed to the 4 INTL marketing alliance cessations. Anderson referred the call to his legal department and hung up on him.


Love the made up drama... Sounds like an episode of that old TV show "Dallas"
 
atl100million
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Sat Jul 08, 2017 2:42 pm

It does little good to argue about what happened between AS and DL unless the details are publicly verifiable from their own financial disclosures.

DL did intend to cooperate with AS to feed DL's transpacific flights but DL demanded exclusivity which is not uncommon or illegal from suppliers.

AS chose not to do grant DL exclusivity in feeding DL flights so DL built a hub which is no longer just about feeding international flights but also about building a viable DL hub in the top SEA markets. DL has achieved that and gets revenue on par or better than AS in the SEA local market.

DL's growth at SEA came as much from other airlines including UA. AA has as much service as it does in many cities, including SEA, because it has more hubs than DL and UA. AA's capacity at SEA and PDX is lower this year because of the DOJ's requirements for the AS-VX merger to be approved and because AS realized that the codeshare/frequent flyer program between AA and AS helped AA more than AS. The same thing was true for AS-DL which is why AS admitted they would lose revenue by cancelling the deal because cooperation between AS and DL helped DL more than AS.

SEA is near its limits to accommodate growth which is why both AS and DL have turned to growing elsewhere - AS via the VX merger and DL at LAX.

AS had a hub at SEA with less competition and higher average fares than at other west coast cities. DL was able to build a hub and AS has had to grow outside of its traditional home markets in more competitive markets. Because of AS' merger, AA has less to gain from AS on the west coast while AS has recognized it has to build as large of a nationwide presence on its own and largely use AA to only complete AS' network via codeshares with AA in the eastern US.
 
sxf24
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Sat Jul 08, 2017 2:48 pm

n7371f wrote:
atl100million wrote:
DL built SEA as a gateway to Asia but quickly realized that they needed to build a hub serving enough markets in the US and the world to be able to offer a viable alternative to AS. They have succeeded at doing that. DL competes well in markets where low cost carriers are large because DL sells a global network which has value to many passengers. As much as many people want to think that AS has a loyal following, the reality is that DL has built a decent following in SEA and PDX and most any well-run airline could do the same. People inherently love competition and choice.
DL now carries almost as much local SEA revenue as AS does despite having fewer flights - because DL has more higher value eastern US and international passengers and also uses widebodies. Many pople don't realize that DL's SEA hub has about as many seats to Asia as UA has from ORD and EWR.
DL is at a pause in the end of the number of flights it can add until more gates are added but they can use larger aircraft and the C series particularly will allow small narrowbody flights to operate at seat costs comparable to larger aircraft. DL will undoubtedly add a few more key markets - several Texas cities are undoubtedly on the list.


Not quite.

Research the issue on this site as it's been well documented. In short form, DL launched the SEA INTL hub with expectation that AS would continue to feed DL at SEA. When AS announced further AA cooperation & declined DL requests to cut marketing deals with BA, QA, JL & Emirates, DL and BoD signed off on a plan to build a domestic hub at SEA. Shortly after the initial schedule load, Brad Tilden called Richard Anderson to apologize & say he agreed to the 4 INTL marketing alliance cessations. Anderson referred the call to his legal department and hung up on him.


Not true.
 
atl100million
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Sat Jul 08, 2017 6:03 pm

sxf24 wrote:
n7371f wrote:
atl100million wrote:
DL built SEA as a gateway to Asia but quickly realized that they needed to build a hub serving enough markets in the US and the world to be able to offer a viable alternative to AS. They have succeeded at doing that. DL competes well in markets where low cost carriers are large because DL sells a global network which has value to many passengers. As much as many people want to think that AS has a loyal following, the reality is that DL has built a decent following in SEA and PDX and most any well-run airline could do the same. People inherently love competition and choice.
DL now carries almost as much local SEA revenue as AS does despite having fewer flights - because DL has more higher value eastern US and international passengers and also uses widebodies. Many pople don't realize that DL's SEA hub has about as many seats to Asia as UA has from ORD and EWR.
DL is at a pause in the end of the number of flights it can add until more gates are added but they can use larger aircraft and the C series particularly will allow small narrowbody flights to operate at seat costs comparable to larger aircraft. DL will undoubtedly add a few more key markets - several Texas cities are undoubtedly on the list.


Not quite.

Research the issue on this site as it's been well documented. In short form, DL launched the SEA INTL hub with expectation that AS would continue to feed DL at SEA. When AS announced further AA cooperation & declined DL requests to cut marketing deals with BA, QA, JL & Emirates, DL and BoD signed off on a plan to build a domestic hub at SEA. Shortly after the initial schedule load, Brad Tilden called Richard Anderson to apologize & say he agreed to the 4 INTL marketing alliance cessations. Anderson referred the call to his legal department and hung up on him.


Not true.


I'd be curious how your different view of the history of the relationship between AS and DL has changed the present or the future either of their strategies or the competitive environment.
 
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ERJ170
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Sat Jul 08, 2017 6:45 pm

So the slowed buildup of SEA is making it possible for the buildup of BOS? So hopefully RDU will be next.. then what?
Aiming High and going far..
 
grbauc
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Sat Jul 08, 2017 6:50 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Call me skeptical, but I don't think the C-Series will be the "game-changer" that some may think for SEA (or LAX, MSP, DTW, ATL) that some may be hyping it up to be. I feel like we hear the same story that the E-175, and the 717 would be game-changers but they haven't really suddenly opened up new city pairs that weren't previously possible with other aircraft types.

These have proven to be more optimal aircraft that have better matched and balanced frequency and capacity but they haven't opened up a plethora of new city pairs. They've also proven to be an option to balance seasonality in markets to maintain frequency.

The C-Series really isn't going to suddenly open-up markets from SEA that weren't previously feasible with E-175, 717, A319/A320, 738 aircraft.


But the E-175 717 does make me fly them DL or AA over others that Have 737+ service. I don't fly RJ unless I have to. So I do think the Cseries will continue to add to there large fleet of FF friendly Planes and that will give them a leg up.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Sat Jul 08, 2017 6:54 pm

ERJ170 wrote:
So the slowed buildup of SEA is making it possible for the buildup of BOS? So hopefully RDU will be next.. then what?


MIA, a return to DFW, then RULE THE WORLD! :-)

Seriously, though, DL is on a good run of growth, but I am a bit concerned about a pullback in the economy in the next 18 months (based on nothing other than my negative attitude) so I'm not convinced we're going to continue to see this type of growth moving forward (for DL or anyone). Hope to be proven wrong though.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
grbauc
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Sat Jul 08, 2017 6:56 pm

ERJ170 wrote:
So the slowed buildup of SEA is making it possible for the buildup of BOS? So hopefully RDU will be next.. then what?


ADD LAX to your List. Amazing what they DL has done.
 
sxf24
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Sat Jul 08, 2017 7:11 pm

grbauc wrote:
ERJ170 wrote:
So the slowed buildup of SEA is making it possible for the buildup of BOS? So hopefully RDU will be next.. then what?


ADD LAX to your List. Amazing what they DL has done.


Smart, probably. Amazing, not so much. Delta closed two hubs, CVG and MEM, and allocated the capacity, along with capacity from other hubs, to new focus cities in larger markets. Both AA and US have done the same thing in the past.
 
grbauc
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Re: Is DL slowing down their SEA expansion?

Sat Jul 08, 2017 7:22 pm

sxf24 wrote:
grbauc wrote:
ERJ170 wrote:
So the slowed buildup of SEA is making it possible for the buildup of BOS? So hopefully RDU will be next.. then what?


ADD LAX to your List. Amazing what they DL has done.


Smart, probably. Amazing, not so much. Delta closed two hubs, CVG and MEM, and allocated the capacity, along with capacity from other hubs, to new focus cities in larger markets. Both AA and US have done the same thing in the past.


AA has a tons of new planes coming in, there can be a few held back or new ones used for test and building opportunities routs available.

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