fraT
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Re: UA Ends BHX flights, and BA ends LHR-Stavanger and Bergen service

Sun Jul 16, 2017 8:07 am

uberflieger wrote:
Armaghman wrote:
impact of Dublin transit with clearance (BHX)

Not surprised at all. Once Aer Lingus becomes a member of Oneworld & AA / IAG TATL pricing, I expect DUB to impact USA flying from the UK Regions even more with MAN being the most vulnerable, currently drawing & depending on USA bound passengers from nearby cities with DUB service. The Virgin expansion may be short lived.

Has there been some official word when this (EI to be included into the JV) might be coming?
 
Andy33
Posts: 2425
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Re: UA regional British isles routes cuts

Sun Jul 16, 2017 8:42 am

IPFreely wrote:
"Every international route we cut eliminates 1,500 jobs." It's at about the 10:30 mark in this video:

http://news.delta.com/delta-releases-fu ... elta+Video


So I watched the video. The caption under the segment featuring the person who said "every international route we cut eliminates 1,500 jobs" says 'Jim Burnley' .
Is that wrong then? Is it really Ed Bastian?
And frankly, it's a propaganda video directed against the ME3. As none of the ME3 fly on routes between UK regional airports and the USA, it isn't that relevant to this thread.
Nor are/were routes between the US and UK regional airports focussed on connecting traffic in the UK to destinations served by the ME3 which they could abstract, in fact they aren't focussed on connecting traffic of any kind at the UK end. UA routes its connecting traffic through multiple Star Alliance hubs in mainland Europe, DL routes its connecting traffic through AMS and CDG. That's the way their joint ventures are structured. AA does route huge amounts of connecting traffic through LHR, but its UK regional airport flights don't connect to anywhere in particular because BA doesn't hub at those airports it serves, apart from LHR.

Delta transferred its flights out of MAN to VS (which it owns 49% of and is in a JV with). The DL planes weren't scrapped, they now use them on other routes, so they still provide employment for US based pilots, flight attendants, ramp workers, agents of various sorts, maintenance crews etc. The only people who actually lost out were UK-based workers, unless they now do the same jobs for VS. The flights themselves still exist for VS, so people are employed in the US as agents, ramp workers, fuellers, cleaners etc to service the flights.

Now the UA situation is different. They too have something else they believe they can use the planes for more profitably (or even not at a loss), so US-based jobs won't be lost at all. The jobs at the UK airports will disappear or become seasonal. But an airline with just one narrowbody flight a day into a station doesn't directly employ many people there, indeed maybe nobody at all. Staffing is mostly or entirely by handling agents, and as soon as the UA flight leaves, they go off and deal with a flight for a different airline. So how many people end up jobless as a result of the service reductions is hard to say. Not 1500 per flight, that's for sure.
Last edited by Andy33 on Sun Jul 16, 2017 8:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
David_itl
Posts: 6354
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Re: UA Ends BHX flights, and BA ends LHR-Stavanger and Bergen service

Sun Jul 16, 2017 8:44 am

uberflieger wrote:
Not surprised at all. Once Aer Lingus becomes a member of Oneworld & AA / IAG TATL pricing, I expect DUB to impact USA flying from the UK Regions even more with MAN being the most vulnerable, currently drawing & depending on USA bound passengers from nearby cities with DUB service. The Virgin expansion may be short lived.


And when MAN gets USCBP? Given how much TCX is cutting the need to route over a hub will there be a need for DUB connections?

The current TCX plan shows for next year
BOS: Mon, Tues, Fri, Sat (all not for whole of season), LAS: Tues, Sat, Sun (all whole season) Mon, Thurs, Fri (not for whole of season).
LAX Mon, Sat (all whole season) Weds (not for whole of season), MIA: Fri, Sun (all not for whole of season)
JFK: daily. MCO: daily SFO: Thurs, Sun

Yes, VS appear to be having short seasons on the SFO and BOS runs next year but if they really are after the business traveller then offering the frequency and duration that they do is hardly going to get those passengers booking in heavy numbers.
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: UA Ends BHX flights, and BA ends LHR-Stavanger and Bergen service

Sun Jul 16, 2017 9:56 am

uberflieger wrote:
Not surprised at all. Once Aer Lingus becomes a member of Oneworld & AA / IAG TATL pricing, I expect DUB to impact USA flying from the UK Regions even more with MAN being the most vulnerable, currently drawing & depending on USA bound passengers from nearby cities with DUB service. The Virgin expansion may be short lived.


I think the opposite is true. I also don't think it's a zero sum game, there is space for both to expand TATL flying (note - I am not looking at eastbound long haul) over the coming years.

Despite DUB having the advantages of a national flag carrier, USPC and major inbound TATL market, MAN continues to expand.

MAN will have USPC in the next 2/3 years, and in TCX has a based carrier with major ambitions. It also has, in VS, a second based carrier that retains - for now - more limited ambitions than TCX at MAN but ambition none the less.

There is also a long term numbers game. The entire population of the island of Ireland is around 5.3million. MANs 2 hour catchment is at least 22million. Yes, is has competition (as does DUB) but it's catchment is well over
4x larger than the entire population of the island of Ireland. MANs catchment will only increase as projects like HS2, HS3 and TP tunnel will expand the catchment further. In summary, MAN serves a much larger indigenous market than DUB ever can.

Yes, there is space for both MAN and DUB to thrive in the TATL market, but quite frankly the long term fundamentals are stacked in favour of MAN.
 
Boeing74741R
Posts: 1095
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Re: UA regional British isles routes cuts

Sun Jul 16, 2017 10:41 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
They're down to just one 757 at MAN with IAD cancelled.

United/Continental have less capacity at MAN in 2017 than they have for 20 years.

The service started in 1995 with a 757, was upgauged to a DC-10 in 1996, and has been either one widebody or 2 757s ever since, notwithstanding the second frequency been moved to IAD after the merger.


This might sound negative and is just my opinion of course, but I can't see United's MAN-EWR route lasting much longer if TCX and VS/DL continue to grow their JFK routes and if/when Norwegian decides to join the party. AA aren't proving much more attractive or promising either with their inferior Economy product offerings on the JFK and ORD routes, not to mention the reported poor reliability of ORD in particular.

As for BHX, it is a shame but not surprising given United's recent form and for the fact that BHX is squeezed from the north by MAN and from the south by LHR - both airports around 100 miles or so away. It needs someone like Thomas Cook or Norwegian to set up a base and grow organically from there.
 
Tedd
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Re: UA Ends BHX flights, and BA ends LHR-Stavanger and Bergen service

Sun Jul 16, 2017 10:49 am

adamblang wrote:
Tedd wrote:
adamblang wrote:
I don't think Brexit fears vs poor ticket sales are separable things – economic anxiety is a part of weak ticket sales.


Sorry but this utter nonsense. Whatever the reasons the UA B`ham -JFK service is failing has nothing to do with Brexit.
Why is Brexit brought up all the time as an excuse for thing going tits-up!

Hardly "utter nonsense."

Brexit is making businesses more cautious. That's a fact. Cautious businesses make more conservative decisions and employees of those cautious businesses make more conservative decisions. That's a fact. If one or two people choose not to fly every day because they're being cautious, that's part of weak ticket sales.

Nobody knows what Brexit is going to look like, but business taking a wait-and-see approach depresses economic activity now.


We are all aware of what the Brexit affect has been doing to business that's obvious, you can blame some of our idiotic politicians
who think this country of ours can`t stand on it`s own two feet anymore.....it`s pathetic! The fact is you`ve only to look at the
history of B`ham-US flights to see it`s not a very sound proposition. There could be a hundred & one reasons for it, but again
it ain`t nothing to do with Brexit.......the "go-to" excuse for any failure that may occur...anywhere! While we are on the subject of
business, can we blame Brexit for the fact that there has never been so many people in work as of now?
 
User001
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Re: UA Ends BHX flights, and BA ends LHR-Stavanger and Bergen service

Sun Jul 16, 2017 10:56 am

uberflieger wrote:
Armaghman wrote:
impact of Dublin transit with clearance (BHX)

Not surprised at all. Once Aer Lingus becomes a member of Oneworld & AA / IAG TATL pricing, I expect DUB to impact USA flying from the UK Regions even more with MAN being the most vulnerable, currently drawing & depending on USA bound passengers from nearby cities with DUB service. The Virgin expansion may be short lived.


If you think MAN is the most vulnerable and that all of its passengers are suddenly going to be mopped up by DUB, clearly you are completely unaware of how resilient the MAN market actually is. Also, you are aware that there are also a lot of DUB passengers coming to MAN for its TATL flights, not just MAN ones going to DUB. Not unusual for the early DUB-MAN to be 85% onward flights at MAN.

Which nearby cities is DUB drawing traffic in from by the way? MAN has the same EI frequency it always has, EI cut Liverpool, cut Doncaster and run a token service from Leeds Bradford.

I think MAN will be just fine, thanks.
 
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intotheair
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Re: UA regional British isles routes cuts

Sun Jul 16, 2017 11:08 am

I still think a lot of this also has to do with UA deciding to expand the flatbed domestic product to BOS, and perhaps who knows where ever else. From the moment all those flat bed 752s were loaded onto the BOS-SFO schedule, as well as DEN-Hawaii and others, it didn't seem to add up as to how they'd have enough frames for everything. UA seems to think that these birds can make more money on quasi-prestige routes in the domestic system, and the TATL narrowbody system has been gradually shifted into either maturing these markets into a 767 or cutting them altogether. I'm sure WW, DY, et al have probably hurt their yields too.
300 319 320 321 332 333 345 346 717 733 734 735 73G 738 739 744 752 753 762 763 772 77W 788 789 CR2 CR7 CR9 Q400 E175 DC10 MD82 MD90
AA AF AS AY AZ B6 BA BR DL F9 FI GA HA KF LH MI QX SK SN SQ UA US VY WN
 
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Super80Fan
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Re: UA regional British isles routes cuts

Sun Jul 16, 2017 11:46 am

All the 737-900's in the world doesn't save United from the fact they need a true 757 replacement for these international routes where the 767/787 are too large but they can't operate with a 737. CO/UA really shot themselves in the foot with all this US-Europe 757 flying.
RIP McDonnell Douglas
 
by738
Posts: 2951
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Re: UA regional British isles routes cuts

Sun Jul 16, 2017 11:48 am

Super80Fan wrote:
All the 737-900's in the world doesn't save United from the fact they need a true 757 replacement for these international routes where the 767/787 are too large but they can't operate with a 737. CO/UA really shot themselves in the foot with all this US-Europe 757 flying.

But with some of them still to be flying in 5-10 years I doubt thats relevent to this announcement
 
Jerry123
Posts: 321
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Re: UA Ends BHX flights, and BA ends LHR-Stavanger and Bergen service

Sun Jul 16, 2017 12:17 pm

uberflieger wrote:
Armaghman wrote:
impact of Dublin transit with clearance (BHX)

Not surprised at all. Once Aer Lingus becomes a member of Oneworld & AA / IAG TATL pricing, I expect DUB to impact USA flying from the UK Regions even more with MAN being the most vulnerable, currently drawing & depending on USA bound passengers from nearby cities with DUB service. The Virgin expansion may be short lived.

DUB won't even dent UK regional growth to the US and compared to AMS for the US it has a much poorer offering. I travel to the US a couple of times a year and its always with KLM Delta and now Air France through AMS and CDG. If US pre clearance was such a strong consideration in people's mind why has Aer Lingus shrunk its regional offering and not expanded it like KLM has done?
BHX lost its service because of several reasons and DUB isn't one.
 
Turnhouse1
Posts: 141
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Re: UA regional British isles routes cuts

Sun Jul 16, 2017 12:34 pm

USPC is great if you're at the spoke as it allows 'domestic' connections at JFK or EWR. It makes less sense to use it at a hub as you need to allow a longer connection time there, so it will be more use to MAN with a large percentage of passengers starting their journey there.
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: UA regional British isles routes cuts

Sun Jul 16, 2017 12:50 pm

Turnhouse1 wrote:
USPC is great if you're at the spoke as it allows 'domestic' connections at JFK or EWR. It makes less sense to use it at a hub as you need to allow a longer connection time there, so it will be more use to MAN with a large percentage of passengers starting their journey there.


There are obvious advantages to arriving in the USA as "domestic" irrespective of whether you are connecting at the US end...
 
Skyblue39
Posts: 355
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Re: UA Ends BHX flights, and BA ends LHR-Stavanger and Bergen service

Sun Jul 16, 2017 1:28 pm

David_itl wrote:
uberflieger wrote:
Not surprised at all. Once Aer Lingus becomes a member of Oneworld & AA / IAG TATL pricing, I expect DUB to impact USA flying from the UK Regions even more with MAN being the most vulnerable, currently drawing & depending on USA bound passengers from nearby cities with DUB service. The Virgin expansion may be short lived.


And when MAN gets USCBP? Given how much TCX is cutting the need to route over a hub will there be a need for DUB connections?

The current TCX plan shows for next year
BOS: Mon, Tues, Fri, Sat (all not for whole of season), LAS: Tues, Sat, Sun (all whole season) Mon, Thurs, Fri (not for whole of season).
LAX Mon, Sat (all whole season) Weds (not for whole of season), MIA: Fri, Sun (all not for whole of season)
JFK: daily. MCO: daily SFO: Thurs, Sun

Yes, VS appear to be having short seasons on the SFO and BOS runs next year but if they really are after the business traveller then offering the frequency and duration that they do is hardly going to get those passengers booking in heavy numbers.


Lest you forget: Much of Manchesters' TATL offering is purely seasonal.

Furthermore Dublin serves cities which are not served from Manchester such as : Washington, Hartford, Charlotte, Providence, Newburgh, Montreal, Halifax and St. John's.

Year round, Dublin serves cities which Manchester does not: Toronto, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Miami, Washington, Boston.

Don't forget Dublin is Europes 6th largest airport for TATL. Manchester is not even remotely close. So please - don't get ahead of yourself! For example in S17, DUB has daily SFO, 11 weekly LAX, 3 daily Boston, 4 daily Chicago, 3 daily Newark, 4 daily JFK, 2 daily Washington, 3-4 daily Toronto.... so, much larger capacity than MAN. And Transatlantic traffic numbers are only continuing to climb.
 
NZ321
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Re: UA regional British isles routes cuts

Sun Jul 16, 2017 1:45 pm

IMHO EWR is often avoided by frequent / business flyers as a transit point. It is so prone to delays. And not a pleasant airport to connect at given the logistics of terminals. Once burnt twice shy. Destination - origin traffic and mainline - mainline international - domestic can work but still, my experience and that of many I know is a history of missed / fraught connections. So for the only route feeding BHX or any such destinations EWR is not the answer.
Plane mad!
 
Galwayman
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Re: UA regional British isles routes cuts

Sun Jul 16, 2017 3:27 pm

The idea that Dublin is competing with Manchester is silly , it's competing with AMS, CDG, LON etc
 
User001
Posts: 898
Joined: Sun Jun 19, 2016 2:18 pm

Re: UA Ends BHX flights, and BA ends LHR-Stavanger and Bergen service

Sun Jul 16, 2017 3:31 pm

Skyblue39 wrote:
David_itl wrote:
uberflieger wrote:
Not surprised at all. Once Aer Lingus becomes a member of Oneworld & AA / IAG TATL pricing, I expect DUB to impact USA flying from the UK Regions even more with MAN being the most vulnerable, currently drawing & depending on USA bound passengers from nearby cities with DUB service. The Virgin expansion may be short lived.


And when MAN gets USCBP? Given how much TCX is cutting the need to route over a hub will there be a need for DUB connections?

The current TCX plan shows for next year
BOS: Mon, Tues, Fri, Sat (all not for whole of season), LAS: Tues, Sat, Sun (all whole season) Mon, Thurs, Fri (not for whole of season).
LAX Mon, Sat (all whole season) Weds (not for whole of season), MIA: Fri, Sun (all not for whole of season)
JFK: daily. MCO: daily SFO: Thurs, Sun

Yes, VS appear to be having short seasons on the SFO and BOS runs next year but if they really are after the business traveller then offering the frequency and duration that they do is hardly going to get those passengers booking in heavy numbers.


Lest you forget: Much of Manchesters' TATL offering is purely seasonal.

Furthermore Dublin serves cities which are not served from Manchester such as : Washington, Hartford, Charlotte, Providence, Newburgh, Montreal, Halifax and St. John's.

Year round, Dublin serves cities which Manchester does not: Toronto, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Miami, Washington, Boston.

Don't forget Dublin is Europes 6th largest airport for TATL. Manchester is not even remotely close. So please - don't get ahead of yourself! For example in S17, DUB has daily SFO, 11 weekly LAX, 3 daily Boston, 4 daily Chicago, 3 daily Newark, 4 daily JFK, 2 daily Washington, 3-4 daily Toronto.... so, much larger capacity than MAN. And Transatlantic traffic numbers are only continuing to climb.


I don't get why the need to play the mother superior card. I don't think anyone was suggesting MAN TATL was better than DUB, just merely suggesting that we are slowly building a network which means for its own market, MAN is beginning to stand on its own 2 feet.

BTW, MAN-YYZ is actually year round, and if your going to play the 'DUB vs MAN' card for TATL traffic, MAN has the following routes that DUB does not: Sanford, Las Vegas, Cayo Coco, Holguin, Tobago, St Lucia, Bridgetown, Puerto Vallarta, Aruba, Puerto Plata, Punta Cana, Santa Clara... Or shall I play the top trumps card going east? Multiple daily A380 to Dubai, up to 3 daily Doha, Jeddah, Riyadh, Baghdad, Muscat, Beijing, Singapore, Hong Kong, Lahore, Islamabad, Goa.... Manchester is the 4th largest airporr for MEB3 traffic, Dublin is not even remotely close. Or are we just getting ahead of ourselves. (See what I did there).
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 5405
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: UA regional British isles routes cuts

Sun Jul 16, 2017 3:54 pm

Super80Fan wrote:
All the 737-900's in the world doesn't save United from the fact they need a true 757 replacement for these international routes where the 767/787 are too large but they can't operate with a 737. CO/UA really shot themselves in the foot with all this US-Europe 757 flying.


No, it really doesn't point to that. UA has some flat bed 757s today that they're taking off TATL to use domestically. I don't think they are doing that to lose money.
 
Eirules
Posts: 1851
Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2007 5:17 am

Re: UA regional British isles routes cuts

Sun Jul 16, 2017 4:00 pm

This thread has gone totally off topic and become DUB v MAN as opposed to why BHX, SNN etc have lost UA service
The way you cut your meat reflects the way you live....
 
dstc47
Posts: 1410
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 1999 3:53 am

Re: UA regional British isles routes cuts

Sun Jul 16, 2017 5:56 pm

"The entire population of the island of Ireland is around 5.3 million"

A bit more than that, more like 6.6m, but the thread has indeed wandered.
 
IPFreely
Posts: 2327
Joined: Sun Dec 24, 2006 8:26 am

Re: UA regional British isles routes cuts

Mon Jul 17, 2017 4:40 am

Andy33 wrote:
So I watched the video. The caption under the segment featuring the person who said "every international route we cut eliminates 1,500 jobs" says 'Jim Burnley' .
Is that wrong then? Is it really Ed Bastian?
And frankly, it's a propaganda video directed against the ME3. As none of the ME3 fly on routes between UK regional airports and the USA, it isn't that relevant to this thread.


You are correct it was not Ed Bastian saying that. It was just stated in his video. But Delta is still on record publishing a video stating "every international route we cut eliminated 1,500 jobs. You seem to disagree in this case because the planes used for MAN were deployed elsewhere instead of being scrapped. So what happened to the planes that used to fly to Dubai, Kuwait City, Delhi, and Chennai? Were they scrapped? If not, and 1,500 jobs weren't lost because the planes were deployed elsewhere, then DL needs to issue a retraction for their video.
 
Andy33
Posts: 2425
Joined: Tue Sep 15, 2009 9:30 am

Re: UA regional British isles routes cuts

Mon Jul 17, 2017 7:03 am

IPFreely wrote:
Andy33 wrote:
So I watched the video. The caption under the segment featuring the person who said "every international route we cut eliminates 1,500 jobs" says 'Jim Burnley' .
Is that wrong then? Is it really Ed Bastian?
And frankly, it's a propaganda video directed against the ME3. As none of the ME3 fly on routes between UK regional airports and the USA, it isn't that relevant to this thread.


You are correct it was not Ed Bastian saying that. It was just stated in his video. But Delta is still on record publishing a video stating "every international route we cut eliminated 1,500 jobs. You seem to disagree in this case because the planes used for MAN were deployed elsewhere instead of being scrapped. So what happened to the planes that used to fly to Dubai, Kuwait City, Delhi, and Chennai? Were they scrapped? If not, and 1,500 jobs weren't lost because the planes were deployed elsewhere, then DL needs to issue a retraction for their video.


I don't think this is the thread to discuss whether DL needs to retract their video or not - perhaps you'd like to start one. I don't know what on basis the 1500 jobs claim was made. But fairly obviously there's a difference in the number of flight attendants and pilots required between routes operated by 757s and 767s compared to 777s, and between routes short enough for a single set of crew members to operate, and ones where relief crew members have to be carried on board, and between daily and less-than-daily service. If the 1500 lost jobs was the right number for Chennai, then it is way over for Manchester. If it is an average, it is still over for Manchester, which must be at the low end, unless they counted flights to Canada and Mexico in.

We're supposed to be discussing cuts in United's flights between the USA and regional UK airports here. By extension we've compared them to DL and AAs flights between the USA and regional UK airports. It's my contention that if there are job losses at all as a result of cuts in these flights, they're amongst ground staff in the UK, in these specific cases, because we know that the planes that operate/operated the routes will be redeployed elsewhere, so the airlines still need crews, ground staff in the USA, mx staff in the USA, reservations staff in the USA and so on. If there's some sort of cascade effect, so UA international 757s operate domestic transcons, releasing 737s to operate something else, and at the very end some flights operated by regional partners go to UA mainline, there might be job losses, but not within UA. Given the staff shortages at regionals often discussed here, there may be no actual job losses at all, just a reduction in requirement for recruitment.
 
Breathe
Posts: 492
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 8:06 pm

Re: UA regional British isles routes cuts

Mon Jul 17, 2017 2:39 pm

skipness1E wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
Crazy something like GLA to NYC (with a hub) cannot sustain year round on a 757. Even less than daily.
Wonder how AA does GLA-PHL?

In summer onl.y
In fairness Delta launching GLA-JFK would have smashed yields on the summer which United would need to keep high.

Its not very clear from this article if they mean the flights won't be extended year round or will not return next year.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/ ... -1-4501878

Delta launched summer flights from Glasgow to New York JFK in May, which end in September.

The airline said it had no plans to extend them.

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