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Ab345
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AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 8:51 pm

Going through the Airbus article on Leeham I found some parts interesting and haven't seen them posted. Please delete if I couldn't find them

Fleet planning on what to do about the A350s continues. Airbus and American are talking about down-grading the A350 to the A330neo.

Further complicating: Hawaiian has the only six orders for the A330-800. John Leahy, COO-Customers, earlier said Airbus doesn’t want to even proceed with the -800, but has since reversed his position.

American Airlines appears more interested in the -800 than the -900 as replacements for the Boeing 767-300ER. Boeing is offering its own solution. AA selecting the A330-800 would be a way out of the A350-900. Pre-production on the A330-800 is underway.

Hawaiian has cancellation rights for the -800 and is said to have launched a competition between the Boeing 787 and the Airbus A350-900.


If anything can save the 338 it's an order from AA, and I bet Enders would love to have HA stay on board and not go for the 787.

https://leehamnews.com/2017/07/27/mid-y ... te-airbus/
 
waly777
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:05 pm

The A358 or 787-9 always seemed more appropriate for HA's long haul plans.
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Polot
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:11 pm

waly777 wrote:
The A358 or 787-9 always seemed more appropriate for HA's long haul plans.

Well that is why HA selected the A358 in the first place.

Granted I think the 788 is still more appropriate than the 789 for HA...the biggest (and really only) problem with the A338 right now for HA is the fact that HA is the only customer. That probably has the guys in HNL sweating a little, because it will make things like financing the plane difficult.

Granted the upside is because of all the commotion that HA has had to go through in regards to this order that has not been their fault they are no doubt taking Airbus, and Boeing if they offer a good enough counteroffer, to the cleaners and getting the planes, whatever they are, for a song.
Last edited by Polot on Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:11 pm

I expect if HA could do it all over again they would have taken 788s and 789s with some used (or new, with a good enough deal) 763s as interim lift.

The 332s have been excellent for HA, but the 339/359 are both a whole lot of airplane to be HA's only widebody.
 
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gatibosgru
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:15 pm

With enough A359s on the books the 338 order would be a nice boost for the program. AA also has plenty of A332s and 763s to eventually replace.
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MrHMSH
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:16 pm

I can see why AA would want the A338, it fits the 'lower capital cost' purchase that the US3 seem to be keen on making at the moment.

Similarly I can see why the 788 would really appeal to HA, but it does have to work against Airbus holding the current deal, albeit Leeham talks about 'cancellation rights' which if as it sounds is a very small/nonexistent penalty means a straight choice which I can see the 788 taking. That said, aren't the 789's economics really competitive even against the 788 even though it's got more capacity?
 
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:17 pm

I think HA would dump Airbus competely from any future orders if they drop the A338. HA isn't a major world player, but it sends a bad message to other smaller airlines in the world that want what they feel is the perfect aircraft for them.
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:17 pm

Hawaiian looking to cancel the A330-800 while American is considering switching to the A330-800 is rather strange at the same time.

While the A338 is closer to the 767 in capacity and matches the A332 in size, I feel the A338 would be less desirable than the A339. Given the minimal weight difference between the A338 and A339, operating costs will be pretty close yet the A338 will have higher CASM. AA has plenty of 787s that have adequate range for transpacific flying and the 767s pretty much only fly to Hawaii, South America and Europe, so range isn't an issue with the A339.
 
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:18 pm

Given the size of the backlog, converting a few A350s to A330s would be a good move to balance the production lines. But replacing 767s by A330-800s would be a first; even DL ordered A330-900s for that job.
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Aptivaboy
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:23 pm

Hi all,

Sorry if I sound dense, but I'm confused. Hawaiian's A330 fleet is relatively young. I flew aboard Humu last January, a plane delivered in February of 2015, and the oldest, Iwakeli'i, isn't quite seven years old. Would these prospective A350s/787s be used to replace or to supplement these young A330s? Why is there a need for a new widebody type at the present time? I can see where the 767s are getting long in the tooth. are these proposed new planes meant to replace them, instead?

Many thanks.

Bob
 
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:29 pm

I always thought AA has way too many 300-plus seat widebodies in service or on order; there's just not enough profitable markets for this many planes. I understand some on this board think the A350-900 is a good B777-200ER replacement, but a) in AA's proposed configuration it'll still have ~20 more seats, and b) that niche already seems to be filled by the B787-9. I don't mean to start an A vs. B war (though it'll probably degenerate into one nonetheless); just commenting that the B787-9 closely matches AA's retrofitted B777-200ERs in terms of capacity and range.
 
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:38 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
Given the size of the backlog, converting a few A350s to A330s would be a good move to balance the production lines. But replacing 767s by A330-800s would be a first; even DL ordered A330-900s for that job.

AA's Lie-Flat 767's have 28 J, 21Y+ and 160 Y for a total of 209 seats

If they follow Delta's layout of the 332, you'd have 34J, 32Y+, and 168Y for a total of 234, or about a 10% increase in capacity.

If you went to DL's 333 layout though, you get almost a 40% jump in capacity. Plus you could use the 338 on shorter TPAC routes like LAX/ORD-NRT, freeing up a few 788/789's.
 
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:40 pm

I think AA should replace the remaining 763's with 788's
since they're already on property.

Perhaps the A338neo rumors are there to help AA
drive a harder bargain with Boeing
 
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Boeing778X
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:48 pm

American Airlines appears more interested in the -800 than the -900 as replacements for the Boeing 767-300ER. Boeing is offering its own solution. AA selecting the A330-800 would be a way out of the A350-900. Pre-production on the A330-800 is underway.


The A330-800neo could be a nice addition for us! They and the 787-8 can replace the 767-300ER comfortably.

They can keep a similar cabin layout with the A330-200s in service and leave the size bracket the A350-900 or A330-900neo would otherwise take to other aircraft.

A prudent move!
Last edited by Boeing778X on Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:50 pm

Sooner787 wrote:
I think AA should replace the remaining 763's with 788's
since they're already on property.

Perhaps the A338neo rumors are there to help AA
drive a harder bargain with Boeing


If Airbus drives a hard bargain they could impose hefty cancellation penalties on A350s and force them into staying with widebodies. It might hurt the relationship since AA loves the A321 and could order more instead. 787s make more sense than A330neos given the large number already in the AA fleet.
Last edited by Newbiepilot on Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:52 pm

GripenFan wrote:
I always thought AA has way too many 300-plus seat widebodies in service or on order; there's just not enough profitable markets for this many planes. I understand some on this board think the A350-900 is a good B777-200ER replacement, but a) in AA's proposed configuration it'll still have ~20 more seats, and b) that niche already seems to be filled by the B787-9. I don't mean to start an A vs. B war (though it'll probably degenerate into one nonetheless); just commenting that the B787-9 closely matches AA's retrofitted B777-200ERs in terms of capacity and range.


American only has 20 airplanes with more than 300 seats (the 777-300ERs), and until 2013 their largest aircraft had only 247 seats.

Sooner787 wrote:
I think AA should replace the remaining 763's with 788's
since they're already on property.

Perhaps the A338neo rumors are there to help AA
drive a harder bargain with Boeing


Agreed, the 787 makes better sense as a 767 replacement than the A330, but the A330-800 could potentially replace the A330-200/-300 and fill a niche between the 787 and 777.
 
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:55 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
Sooner787 wrote:
I think AA should replace the remaining 763's with 788's
since they're already on property.

Perhaps the A338neo rumors are there to help AA
drive a harder bargain with Boeing


If Airbus drives a hard bargain they could impose hefty cancellation penalties on A350s and force them into staying with widebodies. It might hurt the relationship since AA loves the A321 and could order more. 787s make more sense than A330neos given the large number already in the AA fleet.


I think AA operating both the A330-800neo and 787 adds a lot of flexibility to the fleet. I don't see anything wrong with them operating A330s (RR), 787s (GE) and 777s (RR and GE)

Airbus should be careful. The A321 is indeed popular at AA, and could even be interested in an A321neo stretch if/when it happens.
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:56 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
Sooner787 wrote:
I think AA should replace the remaining 763's with 788's
since they're already on property.

Perhaps the A338neo rumors are there to help AA
drive a harder bargain with Boeing


If Airbus drives a hard bargain they could impose hefty cancellation penalties on A350s and force them into staying with widebodies. It might hurt the relationship since AA loves the A321 and could order more instead. 787s make more sense than A330neos given the large number already in the AA fleet.

That is assuming AA has harsh cancellation penalties for the A350. Remember the origin of that order dates all the way back to 2005 when US ordered the A350 mk1. It's terms are probably pretty favorable to AA.
 
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:57 pm

The best scenario for Airbus and for HA is that AA swaps its A359 order for an A338 order.

Now, whether that happens, who knows.
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:00 pm

Aptivaboy wrote:
Hi all,

Sorry if I sound dense, but I'm confused. Hawaiian's A330 fleet is relatively young. I flew aboard Humu last January, a plane delivered in February of 2015, and the oldest, Iwakeli'i, isn't quite seven years old. Would these prospective A350s/787s be used to replace or to supplement these young A330s? Why is there a need for a new widebody type at the present time? I can see where the 767s are getting long in the tooth. are these proposed new planes meant to replace them, instead?

Many thanks.

Bob

It's for expansion into new markets untraceable with the A332 and eventual A332 replacement. But really the fact that the order dates back 9 years probably plays a huge role in it. Back in 2008 when the decision was made HA was no doubt thinking that in 2017 the airline would have fewer A332s and more A358s in its fleet than current.
 
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:03 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
Given the size of the backlog, converting a few A350s to A330s would be a good move to balance the production lines. But replacing 767s by A330-800s would be a first; even DL ordered A330-900s for that job.


Delta has way more 767-300ERs than they do orders for A339s. IMHO some route can't manage the capacity bump 763/764/339.

That said, more 788s would seem obvious for AA if they place any value on fleet commonality. There must be some interesting discussions on acquisition costs.
 
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:07 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Delta has way more 767-300ERs than they do orders for A339s. IMHO some route can't manage the capacity bump 763/764/339.

That said, more 788s would seem obvious for AA if they place any value on fleet commonality. There must be some interesting discussions on acquisition costs.

Good points. DL will need something smaller than the A339; there are markets in Europe and South America for which the A339 will be too big. In the case of AA, it would seem logical to go for more 788s if they believe they need something smaller than the 77Es and 789s; the thing is that they probably want to get rid of their A359 order and perhaps the best way to do it is by converting it to an A338 order.
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mjoelnir
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:09 pm

If AA goes for low acquisition cost, the A330-800 should bee the choice, it is the lowest investment cost wide body currently available, but the A330-200. Used on medium haul, or shorter long haul, running cost should be not much more than for the 787-8. Frames will be available in a rather short time frame. All ordered 787-8 are already delivered, so extra frames would take a while. They have 24 A330 in their fleet as it is. The 767-300ER are on average 20 years old. All ordered 787-8 are already delivered
Last edited by mjoelnir on Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:14 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
But replacing 767s by A330-800s would be a first; even DL ordered A330-900s for that job.

The lack of 800 sales is all about margin optimisation and A350 sales protection. Nothing to do with the A338 being a poor or modest performer.

There are big margins in the 330CEO and NEO family, which Airbus can't exploit without harming A350 sales. But if sales are likely to be lost to B, or they can re-price the A338 but not harm the A359, then 800 sales will happen.
 
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:18 pm

What's an A358?? It is mentioned in several of the posts.
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:19 pm

aeromoe wrote:
What's an A358?? It is mentioned in several of the posts.


Top result on Google: http://www.aircraft.airbus.com/aircraft ... /a350-800/

Edit: yes, its pretty much been cancelled, but Asiana still has orders.
 
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:23 pm

HA could also convert the 338 to additional 321NEOs rather than downright cancelling the order. How many could they get for the 6 338 on order? A fleet of 24-28 321NEOs would be fierce competition for AS on the secondary markets as well as be perfect for Papeete and Samoa. The 332 would keep it's cool current role and the 789 or 359, my bet is on 359 for commonality sake, but B could slide in and take this order depending on how disgruntled HA is with Airbus over the order that was originally for the 358. If AA converts to 338, HA will likely keep the 338 order.
Last edited by QXAS on Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:24 pm

aeromoe wrote:
What's an A358?? It is mentioned in several of the posts.


The A350-800, which is a simple shrink of the A350-900 which Airbus has not officially stopped developing, but virtually has. It once had close to 200 orders, but they were either cancelled, converted to A350-900s or in HA's case, converted to A330-800s. It would have had excellent long range performance, but been less efficient than the 787-9 which it would have been almost identical in size to. There is actually still a firm order for it, from OZ for 8 units, but unsurprisingly Airbus is trying to change it. SU also held an order until quite recently.

Edit: simple shrink not simple stretch!
Last edited by MrHMSH on Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
fcogafa
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:25 pm

Bit of a strange article by Leeham, 'Boeing offering a solution for the AAL B767s' but he can't say what it is? 142 A350 deliveries in 2018, only half the A330 production sold for 2018?
 
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:26 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
aeromoe wrote:
What's an A358?? It is mentioned in several of the posts.


The A350-800, which is a simple stretch of the A350-900 which Airbus has not officially stopped developing, but virtually has. It once had close to 200 orders, but they were either cancelled, converted to A350-900s or in HA's case, converted to A330-800s. It would have had excellent long range performance, but been less efficient than the 787-9 which it would have been almost identical in size to. There is actually still a firm order for it, from OZ for 8 units, but unsurprisingly Airbus is trying to change it. SU also held an order until quite recently.


A358 is a simple shrink, not stretch.
 
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:37 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
aeromoe wrote:
What's an A358?? It is mentioned in several of the posts.


The A350-800, which is a simple stretch of the A350-900 which Airbus has not officially stopped developing, but virtually has. It once had close to 200 orders, but they were either cancelled, converted to A350-900s or in HA's case, converted to A330-800s. It would have had excellent long range performance, but been less efficient than the 787-9 which it would have been almost identical in size to. There is actually still a firm order for it, from OZ for 8 units, but unsurprisingly Airbus is trying to change it. SU also held an order until quite recently.


A358 is a simple shrink, not stretch.


*sigh*

This is what I get for trying to be factual and accurate, I make a colossal mistake like that!.

Yes of course it is, mistype on my part.
 
amdiesen
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:15 pm

Hawaiian has cancellation rights for the -800 and is said to have launched a competition between the Boeing 787 and the Airbus A350-900.[/u][/b]

Further complicating: Hawaiian has the only six orders for the A330-800. John Leahy, COO-Customers, earlier said Airbus doesn’t want to even proceed with the -800, but has since reversed his position.
Ab345
....

...the biggest (and really only) problem with the A338 right now for HA is the fact that HA is the only customer. That probably has the guys in HNL sweating a little, because it will make things like financing the plane difficult.

Granted the upside is because of all the commotion that HA has had to go through in regards to this order that has not been their fault they are no doubt taking Airbus...
Polot



Smart move by Hawaiian, it creates inertia at Airbus with the likely win-win scenario that the 338 order gets converted to end-of-line 332s.
 
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FLIHGH
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:05 am

AA already has at least one 350 sim in their Dallas training center...may have snagged it/them a bit too soon.
 
airzona11
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:13 am

AA needs a light or derated version for ORD/North East - EU and MIA-South America. I expect more A321s will be part of that deal.
 
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Stitch
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:14 am

Boeing would prefer to not sell 787-8s and Airbus would prefer to sell A330-800s so I could see why AA could be interested in the A330-800 as a 767-300ER and A330-200 replacement frame based on what I imagine the respective OEM offers look like.
 
NorthTexAAs
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:18 am

OB1504 wrote:
American only has 20 airplanes with more than 300 seats (the 777-300ERs), and until 2013 their largest aircraft had only 247 seats.


While this is true in the absolute, the A330-300s have 291 seats and the high-density 2-class 772s have 289, upping the total count in the ~300 seat bucket.
 
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Channex757
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:21 am

An AA deal at a decent price would be a winner all round.

The A330-800
1. It's cheap
2. It's available soon
3. It's easily integrated
4. It frees up A350 positions which John Leahy dearly needs.

Airbus have been saying frequently that they could sell many more A350s but the line is maxed out and booked out. Opening short lead slots would be a gift. AA gets a plane not far adrift of the 788 and at a lot lower capital cost. Makes sense to me, especially as the A338 is going to eventually need to spawn a freighter and tanker variant as Rolls and GE won't want to produce the occasional old engine for the CEO version.

At shorter ranges the A338 would make sense, such as North Pacific and Atlantic routes. It also brings the LD3 into play which the 767 never could haul.
 
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Stitch
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:34 am

Channex757 wrote:
At shorter ranges the A338 would make sense, such as North Pacific and Atlantic routes. It also brings the LD3 into play which the 767 never could haul.


The 788 carries LD3s too. ;)
 
klkla
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:45 am

In the comment section of the Leeham article quoted in the OP someone wrote:

"American Airlines appears more interested in the -800 than the -900 as replacements for the Boeing 767-300ER. Boeing is offering its own solution."
What solution is Boeing offering?

Reply
by Scott Hamilton
July 27, 2017
@Rick, I know but can’t say given how I learned about it.

I'm guessing MOM launch customer?
 
AtomicGarden
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:51 am

What would be HA's major beef with aquiring the A359? is it really so much overkill for their operations? or would a heavily discounted A359 be enough to change their minds and go for the larger sibling?
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Stitch
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:11 am

klkla wrote:
I'm guessing MOM launch customer?


Sounds reasonable.


AtomicGarden wrote:
What would be HA's major beef with aquiring the A359? is it really so much overkill for their operations? or would a heavily discounted A359 be enough to change their minds and go for the larger sibling?


It's probably larger and heavier than they want for the role.
 
bzcat
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:20 am

A359 is just too much plane for HA. It doesn't need a large premium cabin, it doesn't need the ultra long haul distance capability (despite fantasy talk of flying to Europe), and it will have trouble filling the Y cabin other than to Tokyo and Los Angeles in its network.

If HA can travel back in time, they probably would have picked the 787-8. They would be in line to receive the first frame just about now...
 
Varsity1
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:39 am

The most elegant solution:

AA's A359 order is converted to 100 A321NEO's
AA's 737 Max8 order is converted into 787-8/9/10's to replace the 76's and 77E's.

Always a huge fan of simplicity. Lowers training and staffing costs dramatically.
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Polot
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:40 am

Varsity1 wrote:
The most elegant solution:

AA's A359 order is converted to 100 A321NEO's
AA's 737 Max8 order is converted into 787-8/9/10's to replace the 76's and 77E's.

Always a huge fan of simplicity. Lowers training and staffing costs dramatically.

Kind of too late for that. Deliveries on AA's Maxes start in a few months, first one started final assembly this month. And of course means AA has no growth below the A321 (which is a fantastic aircraft, but that doesn't mean it is suitable for every route).

Also doesn't really simplify anything. AA would still have ~300 738s.
 
tjh8402
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Fri Jul 28, 2017 2:20 am

EddieDude wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Delta has way more 767-300ERs than they do orders for A339s. IMHO some route can't manage the capacity bump 763/764/339.

That said, more 788s would seem obvious for AA if they place any value on fleet commonality. There must be some interesting discussions on acquisition costs.

Good points. DL will need something smaller than the A339; there are markets in Europe and South America for which the A339 will be too big. In the case of AA, it would seem logical to go for more 788s if they believe they need something smaller than the 77Es and 789s; the thing is that they probably want to get rid of their A359 order and perhaps the best way to do it is by converting it to an A338 order.


A question I asked but never got an answer to in another thread was what's the expected trip cost delta between a 339 and a 763? What's the 339s break even LF? Can it be profitable with a 763 load?
 
QXAS
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Fri Jul 28, 2017 2:26 am

bzcat wrote:
A359 is just too much plane for HA. It doesn't need a large premium cabin, it doesn't need the ultra long haul distance capability (despite fantasy talk of flying to Europe), and it will have trouble filling the Y cabin other than to Tokyo and Los Angeles in its network.

If HA can travel back in time, they probably would have picked the 787-8. They would be in line to receive the first frame just about now...


It makes you wonder what the airline would look like if they had selected 788. I was heartbroken that they went 332 and began replacing the 763 so quick. As a permanent economy traveler I valued the 767 very highly and whenever I can I book on it. Boeing has an opportunity, but Dunkerley seems to love the European products.
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Boeing778X
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Fri Jul 28, 2017 2:27 am

Varsity1 wrote:
The most elegant solution:

AA's A359 order is converted to 100 A321NEO's
AA's 737 Max8 order is converted into 787-8/9/10's to replace the 76's and 77E's.

Always a huge fan of simplicity. Lowers training and staffing costs dramatically.


I would not use the word "elegant" so frivolously.

AA already has 100x A321neos in coming. An additional 100x might be a bit too much, and you're not counting the over 200 A321s in service already. Swapping the A359 to A338 is not a bad move.

And the first 737 MAX arrives in, literally, weeks. Why would AA cancel them and go to all A321neo, with a current fleet of 300x 738s? That's silly.

There are also plenty of 787 options. Adding additional 787s, including the -10, should be a breeze anyway.

FLIHGH wrote:
AA already has at least one 350 sim in their Dallas training center...may have snagged it/them a bit too soon.


I'm not sure I can validate that. Where'd you hear that from?
Last edited by Boeing778X on Fri Jul 28, 2017 2:33 am, edited 2 times in total.
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DaufuskieGuy
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Fri Jul 28, 2017 2:31 am

bzcat wrote:
A359 is just too much plane for HA. It doesn't need a large premium cabin, it doesn't need the ultra long haul distance capability (despite fantasy talk of flying to Europe), and it will have trouble filling the Y cabin other than to Tokyo and Los Angeles in its network.

If HA can travel back in time, they probably would have picked the 787-8. They would be in line to receive the first frame just about now...


that's just what i was thinking the 330 series can fly every conceivable route what is the point of much more expensive 350s? were they ordered when oil prices were higher?
 
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Stitch
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Fri Jul 28, 2017 2:43 am

DaufuskieGuy wrote:
that's just what i was thinking the 330 series can fly every conceivable route what is the point of much more expensive 350s? were they ordered when oil prices were higher?


As an A330-200 operator, the A350-800 would have given them around 30 more seats and another ~1500nm of range with a double-digit reduction in fuel burn per seat (in the neighborhood of 25% less on missions up to 4000nm). So it was a pretty logical option for them at the time. Even after Airbus decided to make it a straight shrink of the A350-900, range was still around 1400nm better and fuel burn over 20% lower per seat so it was still a good choice.
 
blink182
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Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Fri Jul 28, 2017 3:10 am

Given the probabilities of the of the A338 and 350-800 ever being built are both iffy at best, in retrospect, would it have made sense for HA to acquire the 'terrible teen' Dreamliners before ET took them up? HA's route network neither requires the full range capability of the 787-8, nor does it require the size and range of the A350-900. HA also could have had the airframes already.

Seems to me that unless an AA order happens, HA has to decide between two aircraft that aren't ideal for its needs.
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