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Re: The future of 50 seat RJs

Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:25 am

I get why turboprops aren't popular among passengers, but for flight under 300 miles, who cares? I wonder if we'll see a return of them once the 50-seaters start to age out.

At one point, smaller communities that cannot fill a 70-seater at lower frequencies will have to face the obvious choice: fly on a turboprop, or have no air service at all. What will they choose?

The reality of it is, you're going to run out of pilots to fly the 50 seat airplanes long before the CR2/145 are totally in the boneyard.

There is a LOT of truth to this statement...

the putative advantage of the MRJ70 is that it will either match or come close to the efficiency of a 50-seater, but seat 20 more passengers. The MRJ70 currently meets all scope requirements.

Indeed, the MRJ70 gives you a free 20 seat bonus at equal or better operating costs, which is a big improvement. Over time however, airlines will want to fill those 20 seats profitably, so in the mid term, the market will have to support 70 seats, at reduced frequency if needed.
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Re: The future of 50 seat RJs

Thu Aug 24, 2017 12:01 pm

r2rho wrote:

The reality of it is, you're going to run out of pilots to fly the 50 seat airplanes long before the CR2/145 are totally in the boneyard.

There is a LOT of truth to this statement...


Ironically, as I read this post, a banner ad for Commutair (United Express) popped up on the right side advertising a $22,100 sign-on bonus for new jet pilots.
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Re: The future of 50 seat RJs

Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:12 am

Bombardier announced earnings today and once again there were no CRJ orders during the quarter. The CRJ order book is down to 43 planes. Bombardier significantly slowed production this quarter to only 4 planes in what must be an attempt to extend the life of the production line. At the prior production rate of 8 per quarter there would have been 0 orders left at the end of 2018.

http://www.bombardier.com/content/dam/W ... tus-en.pdf

CRJ Status Reports for prior quarters can be found using the link below.

http://www.bombardier.com/en/media/comm ... ports.html
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Re: The future of 50 seat RJs

Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:49 am

you know what's weird. there are hardly any ERJ135s for sale at the moment. Seriously. Have a look. A year ago you could do a search and come up with 30 of them. Now, maybe 3. transaction prices are up.
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Re: The future of 50 seat RJs

Sun Nov 05, 2017 3:33 pm

The only reason that the 200s are viable on EAS and pro-rate markets is that they are paid off, that is, their ownership costs are down to maintenance alone; very few are still on lease. The unmentioned and critical piece of the puzzle is that the operational cost of a CRJ 700 is nearly the same as that of a 200 and there is no compelling reason to purchase a new 200 over a new 700 unless someone has a gun to your head. That said, the same is true of the 700 vs 900. And when you get to that number of seats, suddenly you are looking at a viable competitor in the market with the E175 which passengers love, and only rampers hate.

So, here's my bet: With the AA scope already allowing 700s to replace every 50 seater without penalty, Delta and United will approach their pilots to ask for 700s as equivalent to 50 seaters provided they have no more than, say 65? passengers. That would perhaps allow a second lavatory (the perceived 'fatal' flaw) so far unaddressed by the new interior. And a clever [Hello Bombardier... are you listening???] should get busy fast adding everything possible that they learned in the CSeries and from the nearly 20 years of service of the CRJ family making a 700 Super NEO. [As an aside - this E175SC - a 70 seat E175 should be yanked up short as a no go...in my book - that frame is a 76 seat frame.]

Mirabel would do themselves two really big favors if they also remembered the great lessons of the Q400 - Keep It Simple Simon - take a page from Sukhoi and build a plane that is rugged, durable, easy to work on, easy to repair, and has as few different parts as possible. Complications, whiz-bang neato cool pricey delicate is not going to last 20 years of bouncing around the skies. The 'there is only one of these on the whole plane' thinga-ma-bob is a real pain to stock in each parts warehouse, and 'Hey, there are 73 different types of lightbulb on this plane!' are not helpful. Design it for the long-haul.

And from the CSeries, yes, you should design it so well it will sell itself. But you shouldn't have a marketing team so arrogant that it has to. It's time to hire people who can really sell things (maybe from outside of Quebec) to do this for you, clearly, this is a weakness you can no longer afford.

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