With Qantas pushing forward with SYD-LHR and SYD-JFK along with other routes being suggested what's everyone's view of how the QF/EK alliance will progress once these routes have started? The QF/EK alliance would mark 10 years in 2023
Personally I can see a two-tier level of service.
1) The QF direct non-stop flights are a premium fare - the exclusivity of the non-stop flight and restricted payloads limited to 300 passengers or whatever it comes to,make these flights almost a bit elite. You wont get too many backpackers or families travelling on these flights, and they will be aimed at the business travellers, high end FF or those willing to pay an extra couple of hundred pounds/dollars to avoid a stopover.
2a) From Europe - The EK A380s for the masses via DXB at the competitive end of the market.
2b) From the US - I think they will maintain their A380s to LAX/DFW as they've got nowhere to stop at anywhere in between, but with the suggestions of CHI, NYC non-stop coming on, these too would the premium service/fares. For the cheaper flights you connect over DFW or LAX as you would do now, to help fill the A380.
I don't think Qantas will comprise on the value of Service (unlike some carriers I could mention), so they won't pack the ULH flights like sardines, however we will have to pay a bit more for that privilege.
I can't see that the QF/EK alliance will break up, as unless they are planning to operate three or four flights per day to say London, they will I think loose a lot of passengers otherwise through the simple lack of seats. So the best thing for them I think is to keep in with EK, filter the "cheaper" customers off on to EK services instead. It's also important for QF to keep the customers "in house" so to speak too, as their domestic market also feeds off the international flights. QF don't want EK doing a new deal say with VA, and then turning over their customers to them once they arrive in Australia.
What I would be interested to know though is, how many people get on the flight in LHR, get off in SYD or MEL presently? And vice versa. When ever I fly these routes the flights are pretty busy with few spare seats, but I more often than not, get a change of seating companions from DXB. So there seems to be a reasonable percentage changing flights or stopping over in DXB.
Personally speaking, as a privately funded traveller I would hate a situation where the ULH flights are marked with a premium, leaving me with a choice of Emirates (no thank you really), as a QF FF member. I would either desert the OW alliance, but since BA is my home carrier a bit difficult to do, or I would be forced onto QR, CX, MH alternatives instead of the EK cattle buses.