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enilria
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OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 1:39 pm

FAQ

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

WHERE ARE SEATS SHOWN?
They aren't. This only shows departures.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. I remove the schedule adds if I see them and show a year over year (YOY) comparison if I notice them.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard. This causes flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

NOTE: Once again, thanks to TerminalD for posting it last week when I went on vacation and found myself with email only...

4B IYK-LAX NOV 0>1.7 DEC 0>1.6
4B LAX-MCE NOV 0>3 DEC 0>3
4B MCE-OAK NOV 0>1.7 DEC 0>1.6

7N MIA-SDQ MAR 0.3>1.0 APR 0>1.0

9V MIA-BLA SEP 1.0>1.5

AA CLT-BHM NOV 8>7
AA CLT-DEN NOV 6>5
AA CLT-DTW NOV 8>7
AA CLT-FPO DEC 0.7>0.1 JAN 0.4>0.2
AA CLT-GSO NOV 9>8
AA CLT-IND NOV 9>8
AA CLT-LGA NOV 13>12
AA CLT-OAJ NOV 7>6
AA DCA-BDL NOV 6>7
AA DFW-BOS NOV 8>7
AA DFW-CUN NOV 6>5
AA DFW-DEN NOV 9>8
AA DFW-FLL NOV 6>5
AA DFW-SAT NOV 11>10
AA DFW-SEA NOV 9>8
AA JFK-DFW NOV 1.9>1.4
AA LAX-BOS JAN 5>6 FEB 5>6 MAR 5>6 APR 5>6
AA LAX-IAD NOV 1.9>1.4
Does NOT resume for Summer
*AA LAX-MSP NOV 1.0>0.1 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0.1 FEB 1.0>0.2 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0
AA ORD-ALO APR 2>1.0
AA ORD-DFW NOV 14>13
AA ORD-FLL NOV 4>3
AA ORD-PBI NOV 3>1.6
AA ORD-PEK NOV 0.9>0.8
AA ORD-PVG NOV 0.7>0.6
AA ORD-RNO NOV 0.9>0.5
Odd to see them drop one DL market and expand another (previously Summer only)
*AA PHL-SLC JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>1.0
AA PHL-YUL NOV 6>5
AA PHX-BUR NOV 5>4
AA PHX-CUN NOV 1.1>1.0
AA PHX-DFW NOV 11>12
AA PHX-GDL NOV 0.9>0.8
AA PHX-LAX NOV 9>8

AC DEN-YVR SEP 0.3>1.3 OCT 0>1.0

AD MCO-VCP DEC 1.0>1.4 JAN 1.0>1.4 FEB 1.0>1.3

*AF ORD-CDG NOV 0>0.7 DEC 0>0.7 JAN 0>0.5 FEB 0>0.4 MAR 0.2>0.7

AM LAX-MEX DEC 6>7 JAN 6>7
AM MIA-MEX NOV 2>3 DEC 3>4
AM ORD-GDL NOV 1.0>1.1
AM SAT-MEX DEC 1.0>1.3
*AM SMF-MEX DEC 0.0>0.5 JAN 0>0.7

AS SEA-PDX OCT 23>24

AT IAD-CMN NOV 0.6>1.0 DEC 0.5>1.0 JAN 0.6>1.0 FEB 0.6>1.0 MAR 0.6>0.9
AT JFK-CMN NOV 1.1>1.5 DEC 1.4>1.6 JAN 1.4>1.5 FEB 1.1>1.6 MAR 1.5>1.7

AV JFK-MDE DEC 0.7>1.0 JAN 0.7>0.8

DL ATL-AGS APR 8>7
DL ATL-BHM MAR 10>9 APR 10>9
DL ATL-GSO FEB 9>8 MAR 9>8 APR 9>8
DL ATL-JAN FEB 7>6 MAR 7>6
DL ATL-KIN DEC 1.2>0.9 JAN 1.1>0.9
DL DTW-DFW OCT 6>5
DL DTW-SNA OCT 0.9>0.6
DL JFK-PBI DEC 1.6>1.0
DL LAX-SFO OCT 13>12
DL LGA-BTV MAR 4>3
DL MCO-AMS APR 0>1.0
DL SEA-ANC MAR 4>3
DL SEA-ATL JAN 6>7 FEB 6>7 MAR 6>7
DL SEA-SJC JAN 4>5 FEB 4>5
DL SLC-YYZ DEC 1.0>0.7

DY JFK-LGW MAR 1.6>1.8 APR 1.0>1.9

HA HNL-LNY OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4
HA HNL-MKK OCT 3>2 NOV 3>2
*HA JHM-OGG SEP 1.0>0.5 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0.5
HA KOA-OGG SEP 5>4 OCT 5>3 NOV 5>3
*HA LNY-MKK SEP 1.0>0.5 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0.5
*HA MKK-OGG SEP 1.0>0.5 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0.5

JJ JFK-GRU DEC 1.0>1.2 JAN 1.0>1.3 FEB 1.0>1.3 MAR 1.0>1.3 APR 1.0>1.4
JJ MIA-FOR JAN 0.3>0.2

LA MIA-LIM JAN 2>3 FEB 2>3 MAR 2>3

MS JFK-CAI DEC 0.7>0.9 JAN 0.7>1.0 FEB 0.7>1.0 MAR 0.7>0.9

MU HNL-PVG NOV 0.7>0.6 DEC 0.9>0.7 JAN 0.8>0.7 FEB 1.0>0.9
MU ORD-PVG NOV 0.7>0.4 DEC 1.0>0.7 JAN 1.0>0.7 FEB 0.7>0.4 MAR 0.7>0.5

MW BUR-SMX SEP 0>2 OCT 0>2 NOV 0>2 DEC 0>2

NK FLL-BQN APR 0.7>1.0

NZ HNL-AKL APR 0.5>1.0

PR LAX-MNL OCT 1.5>1.4 NOV 1.7>1.4 DEC 2>1.7

*TJ ACK-TEB SEP 3>0 OCT 0.7>0
TJ MVY-TEB SEP 1.2>0

TK MIA-IST APR 0.7>0.9

TP BOS-LIS NOV 0.4>0.7 DEC 0.4>0.7 JAN 0.4>0.7 FEB 0.4>0.7 MAR 0.6>0.8

Non-Denver ski stuff getting trimmed for April
UA AUS-CUN NOV 0>0.1
UA DEN-BZN MAR 4>5
UA DEN-EGE JAN 1.9>4 FEB 1.9>4 MAR 1.8>4
UA DEN-FCA DEC 2>3 JAN 2>4 FEB 2>3 MAR 2>3
UA DEN-HDN MAR 3>4
UA DEN-MTJ DEC 3>4 JAN 3>5 FEB 3>5 MAR 3>5
UA DEN-RNO JAN 2>3 FEB 2>3 MAR 2>3
UA DEN-SLC JAN 7>6 FEB 7>6 MAR 7>6
UA EWR-BOS DEC 10>9
UA EWR-HKG NOV 1.0>0.9
UA IAH-ASE MAR 4>3 APR 0.3>0.2
UA IAH-EGE MAR 1.0>0.7 APR 0.1>0.0
UA IAH-HDN MAR 1.0>0.7 APR 0.1>0.0
UA IAH-MTJ MAR 1.0>0.7 APR 0.1>0.0
*UA IAH-SLC DEC 3>4 JAN 3>5 FEB 3>5 MAR 3>5
UA LAX-BZN APR 0.1>0.0
UA LAX-JAC APR 0.1>0.0
UA LAX-MSP NOV 1.9>1.1
UA ORD-BZN MAR 2>3
UA ORD-EGE MAR 0.3>1.0
UA ORD-MEX NOV 1.7>1.8
UA ORD-MKE NOV 6>8
Previously it was schedule to op Christmas/NYE and then done. Now MAR-Summer.
*UA ORD-PNS MAR 0>0.8 APR 0>1.0
UA ORD-SAV NOV 2.0>1.2
UA ORD-YVR DEC 3>1.6
UA SFO-BZN APR 0.1>0.0
UA SFO-CUN NOV 1.9>3
UA SFO-JAC APR 0.1>0.0
*UA SFO-ONT NOV 9>7 DEC 9>7
 
phluser
Posts: 621
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 2:49 pm

Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 2:26 pm

enilria wrote:
Does NOT resume for Summer
*AA LAX-MSP NOV 1.0>0.1 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0.1 FEB 1.0>0.2 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0

Odd to see them drop one DL market and expand another (previously Summer only)
*AA PHL-SLC JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>1.0


LAX-MSP has more competition across other carriers, and even more DL frequency.

AA can charge high fares on PHL-SLC and DL has just 1x flight frequency. DL might have strength with connecting PHL pax beyond SLC to the West Coast, but if more PHL based travelers head to SLC than SLC based travelers head to PHL as O&D in the Winter, AA would have at least have some advantage there, assuming PHL based pax go with AA. AA's flight out of PHL leaves in the night, likely resulting with business pax flying the night before and stay at a hotel.
Last edited by phluser on Sun Aug 06, 2017 2:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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SANFan
Posts: 5488
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 2:27 pm

enilria wrote:
FAQ
Does NOT resume for Summer
*AA LAX-MSP NOV 1.0>0.1 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0.1 FEB 1.0>0.2 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0

My guess would be that AS will start flying this route in 2018.

bb
 
SESGDL
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 2:35 pm

DL starting MCO-AMS doesn't warrant a star?

Also, enilria, thanks so much for doing this. This is always my favorite thread of the week.

Jeremy
 
usairways85
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 3:29 pm

phluser wrote:
enilria wrote:
Does NOT resume for Summer
*AA LAX-MSP NOV 1.0>0.1 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0.1 FEB 1.0>0.2 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0

Odd to see them drop one DL market and expand another (previously Summer only)
*AA PHL-SLC JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>1.0


LAX-MSP has more competition across other carriers, and even more DL frequency.

AA can charge high fares on PHL-SLC and DL has just 1x flight frequency. DL might have strength with connecting PHL pax beyond SLC to the West Coast, but if more PHL based travelers head to SLC than SLC based travelers head to PHL as O&D in the Winter, AA would have at least have some advantage there, assuming PHL based pax go with AA. AA's flight out of PHL leaves in the night, likely resulting with business pax flying the night before and stay at a hotel.

It's also worth noting that PHL-SLC went year round at the beginning of 2017.

Noted almost a year ago...
OAG Changes 8/5/2016:UA Drops SMX, UP+TPA-NAS
 
miaami
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 3:30 pm

LAX losing CUN/MSP and a lot service down gauged to eagle. LAX-MIA 777-300 down gauged to A-321. Lots of cuts around the system.
 
msycajun
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 3:38 pm

*AM SMF-MEX DEC 0.0>0.5 JAN 0>0.7


Is this an all-new route? If so, it means that the rumor of more DL international was right, given it's part of the JV with AM.
 
SFOtoORD
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 3:42 pm

SANFan wrote:
enilria wrote:
FAQ
Does NOT resume for Summer
*AA LAX-MSP NOV 1.0>0.1 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0.1 FEB 1.0>0.2 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0

My guess would be that AS will start flying this route in 2018.

bb


I'd be surprised. I believe both UA and AA launched this route for corporate contracts that AS may not have.
 
amadorE175
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 3:49 pm

msycajun wrote:
*AM SMF-MEX DEC 0.0>0.5 JAN 0>0.7


Is this an all-new route? If so, it means that the rumor of more DL international was right, given it's part of the JV with AM.


According to SMF's twitter, this looks to be a holiday route (runs 12/13 - 1/14). I don't know if they've flown this in the past.

https://twitter.com/SacIntlAirport/status/892120553024356353
 
usflyer msp
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 3:52 pm

phluser wrote:
enilria wrote:
Does NOT resume for Summer
*AA LAX-MSP NOV 1.0>0.1 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0.1 FEB 1.0>0.2 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0

Odd to see them drop one DL market and expand another (previously Summer only)
*AA PHL-SLC JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>1.0


LAX-MSP has more competition across other carriers, and even more DL frequency.


I have been expecting AA to drop or down-gauge MSP-LAX for quite some time now. It essentially became useless when it went down to once daily plus AA was consistently the cheapest carrier on the route. One time I needed to return to MSP two days early and I ended up buying a one-way same-day walk-up on AA for $109 - a new ticket was cheaper than the change fee. The only market that loses connectivity is AKL so it is not a huge loss - everything else also has service via PHX or DFW.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8761
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 3:58 pm

SFOtoORD wrote:
SANFan wrote:
enilria wrote:
FAQ
Does NOT resume for Summer
*AA LAX-MSP NOV 1.0>0.1 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0.1 FEB 1.0>0.2 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0

My guess would be that AS will start flying this route in 2018.

bb


I'd be surprised. I believe both UA and AA launched this route for corporate contracts that AS may not have.


I am a little surprised that MSP-LAX couldn't support five carriers: DL, UA, Sun Country and Spirit in addition to AA. But yeah, if AA (#1 at LAX and with a growing list of TPAC connections) can't make it work one has to doubt if AS can. UA shows the route is short enough for an E75.
 
jplatts
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 4:07 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:
SANFan wrote:
My guess would be that AS will start flying this route in 2018.

bb


I'd be surprised. I believe both UA and AA launched this route for corporate contracts that AS may not have.


I am a little surprised that MSP-LAX couldn't support five carriers: DL, UA, Sun Country and Spirit in addition to AA. But yeah, if AA (#1 at LAX and with a growing list of TPAC connections) can't make it work one has to doubt if AS can. UA shows the route is short enough for an E75.


Southwest will have room to expand at LAX after Terminal 1 renovations at LAX are completed next year, and Southwest could add nonstop service to LAX from MSP since Southwest is still growing at LAX and since demand for MSP-LAX flights has significantly increased during the last 5 years.
 
Aliqiout
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 4:16 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:
SANFan wrote:
My guess would be that AS will start flying this route in 2018.

bb


I'd be surprised. I believe both UA and AA launched this route for corporate contracts that AS may not have.


I am a little surprised that MSP-LAX couldn't support five carriers: DL, UA, Sun Country and Spirit in addition to AA. But yeah, if AA (#1 at LAX and with a growing list of TPAC connections) can't make it work one has to doubt if AS can. UA shows the route is short enough for an E75.

AS can make quite a few routes out of LAX work that AA can't, or won't . Ones that immediately come to mind are CUN,LTO,STS,BWI,ANC... I am sure there are more.
 
phluser
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 4:30 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
one has to doubt if AS can.


Perhaps AS would try a red-eye LAX-MSP. I see that DL and SY already have it, but in the LAX-PHL market, AA and NK had red-eyes, and then AS just chose to do that as well. It's a common pattern even with LAX-BWI/IAD as 1x done as a red-eye. Such fleet utilization strategy one-way might make it justifiable, but on the westbound it would go against more competition. AS might value such route also to augment their stations, where with AA it isn't needed as much.
 
ericm2031
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 4:35 pm

Looks like UA is pulling mainline off of ORD-MKE
 
ericm2031
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 4:40 pm

I wonder if MW is replacing SMX-LAX with BUR or if this is in addition
 
ooslc
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 5:05 pm

Is ORD-CDG switching from DL to AF again, or will it complement the DL flight? What A/C is going to be used?
    Ironically, I don't work for OO anymore, and I'm not in SLC anymore. PDX based, aviation enthusiast, non-aviation worker.
 
tphuang
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Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 5:17 pm

Good to see Aa is up to 6 a day on bos lax. This comes right after b6 going to 4 a day. A lot of capacity additions. I wonder if anyone else will be cutting service here.
 
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chrisnh
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 5:26 pm

tphuang wrote:
Good to see Aa is up to 6 a day on bos lax. This comes right after b6 going to 4 a day. A lot of capacity additions. I wonder if anyone else will be cutting service here.


All 737-800s though. I guess they aren't willing to use A321s in response to B6, however.
 
lavalampluva
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Joined: Tue Jun 24, 2014 7:33 pm

Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 5:44 pm

jplatts wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:

I'd be surprised. I believe both UA and AA launched this route for corporate contracts that AS may not have.


I am a little surprised that MSP-LAX couldn't support five carriers: DL, UA, Sun Country and Spirit in addition to AA. But yeah, if AA (#1 at LAX and with a growing list of TPAC connections) can't make it work one has to doubt if AS can. UA shows the route is short enough for an E75.


Southwest will have room to expand at LAX after Terminal 1 renovations at LAX are completed next year, and Southwest could add nonstop service to LAX from MSP since Southwest is still growing at LAX and since demand for MSP-LAX flights has significantly increased during the last 5 years.

I think there are 14 flights per day on that route, and a number of them flying 757. I can't see WN joining the fun.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
MAH4546
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 6:00 pm

miaami wrote:
LAX losing CUN/MSP and a lot service down gauged to eagle. LAX-MIA 777-300 down gauged to A-321. Lots of cuts around the system.


There are a few days in when the 77W isn't operating (late October I think), but it's still there on MIALAX.
a.
 
MAH4546
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 6:01 pm

Aliqiout wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:

I'd be surprised. I believe both UA and AA launched this route for corporate contracts that AS may not have.


I am a little surprised that MSP-LAX couldn't support five carriers: DL, UA, Sun Country and Spirit in addition to AA. But yeah, if AA (#1 at LAX and with a growing list of TPAC connections) can't make it work one has to doubt if AS can. UA shows the route is short enough for an E75.

AS can make quite a few routes out of LAX work that AA can't, or won't . Ones that immediately come to mind are CUN,LTO,STS,BWI,ANC... I am sure there are more.


AA flies LAXANC daily during the summer.
a.
 
Jo8338
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 6:24 pm

AA is really cutting back FLL / PBI. I think you will also see more legacy US once these changes are loaded.
 
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SteveXC500
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 6:49 pm

jplatts wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:

I'd be surprised. I believe both UA and AA launched this route for corporate contracts that AS may not have.


I am a little surprised that MSP-LAX couldn't support five carriers: DL, UA, Sun Country and Spirit in addition to AA. But yeah, if AA (#1 at LAX and with a growing list of TPAC connections) can't make it work one has to doubt if AS can. UA shows the route is short enough for an E75.


Southwest will have room to expand at LAX after Terminal 1 renovations at LAX are completed next year, and Southwest could add nonstop service to LAX from MSP since Southwest is still growing at LAX and since demand for MSP-LAX flights has significantly increased during the last 5 years.


Years away from WN expanding at MSP. Could add a few more flights but gates need to expand first.
 
jetbluefan1
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 7:28 pm

chrisnh wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Good to see Aa is up to 6 a day on bos lax. This comes right after b6 going to 4 a day. A lot of capacity additions. I wonder if anyone else will be cutting service here.


All 737-800s though. I guess they aren't willing to use A321s in response to B6, however.


Interesting add, especially since they aren't matching B6's lie-flat product. I would be surprised if DL didn't add capacity too - with D1 service if the SFO service turns out to do well. B6 is the only carrier with a lie-flat product in a fairly high yielding transcon market.
 
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admanager
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 7:34 pm

Not a surprise here...DL SLC-YYZ DEC 1.0>0.7
After AC dropped the route, there was much speculation as to the long term future of this route. Overflying 2 hubs to serve this route makes it unlikely to last.
 
jplatts
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 8:05 pm

SteveXC500 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

I am a little surprised that MSP-LAX couldn't support five carriers: DL, UA, Sun Country and Spirit in addition to AA. But yeah, if AA (#1 at LAX and with a growing list of TPAC connections) can't make it work one has to doubt if AS can. UA shows the route is short enough for an E75.


Southwest will have room to expand at LAX after Terminal 1 renovations at LAX are completed next year, and Southwest could add nonstop service to LAX from MSP since Southwest is still growing at LAX and since demand for MSP-LAX flights has significantly increased during the last 5 years.


Years away from WN expanding at MSP. Could add a few more flights but gates need to expand first.


Does Southwest actually have access to 4 full gates at MSP, or does it have to share its gates at MSP with other airlines? If Southwest actually has access to 4 full gates at MSP, Southwest definitely does have room to add additional flights out of MSP and can probably do at least 40 flights a day out of MSP. Southwest's flight schedule for Spring 2018 only has 24 flights a day out of MSP, but Southwest is currently doing 27 flights a day out of MSP. Southwest also does more flights per gate per day out of DAL and LAX than it does out of MSP and the other airports that it operates out of.
 
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adamh8297
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 8:21 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:

Interesting add, especially since they aren't matching B6's lie-flat product. I would be surprised if DL didn't add capacity too - with D1 service if the SFO service turns out to do well. B6 is the only carrier with a lie-flat product in a fairly high yielding transcon market.


LAX is sort of it the middle of the pack on yield on transcons from BOS. No surprise on the highest yielding market though

Here's Q3 2016 average fares from all airlines from BOS from anything served non-stop and over 2k miles

SFO/OAK - 347
SAN - 296
SEA - 286
LAX/ONT/BUR/SNA - 285 (AA gets 306 and is the market share leader. B6 gets 251)
PDX -284
SMF - 276
SLC- 270
PHX - 264
LAS - 243 (Has non-stop on NK - B6 without MINT during this quarter got a higher average fare on BOS-LAS (269) than BOS-LAX)

Lets see what happens with more MINT and increases from AA on BOS-LAX.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
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SteveXC500
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 9:18 pm

jplatts wrote:
SteveXC500 wrote:
jplatts wrote:

Southwest will have room to expand at LAX after Terminal 1 renovations at LAX are completed next year, and Southwest could add nonstop service to LAX from MSP since Southwest is still growing at LAX and since demand for MSP-LAX flights has significantly increased during the last 5 years.


Years away from WN expanding at MSP. Could add a few more flights but gates need to expand first.


Does Southwest actually have access to 4 full gates at MSP, or does it have to share its gates at MSP with other airlines? If Southwest actually has access to 4 full gates at MSP, Southwest definitely does have room to add additional flights out of MSP and can probably do at least 40 flights a day out of MSP. Southwest's flight schedule for Spring 2018 only has 24 flights a day out of MSP, but Southwest is currently doing 27 flights a day out of MSP. Southwest also does more flights per gate per day out of DAL and LAX than it does out of MSP and the other airports that it operates out of.


Sure, they "could" but honestly, look at the routes they have been adding at other airports lately. MSP is challenging with DL and SY as it is, so what ever metric WN uses to justify routes, they are not adding much at MSP. BNA came on this year. BWI last year? Before that, virtually stagnant. I would say the trend is limited WN growth at MSP. Plus, they will need to go net positive for aircraft beyond the loss of 737-300 retirements before they will add routes at power hub MSP.
 
Chuska
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 11:05 pm

Didn't see this on the list: AA* (OO) will add a 2nd PHX-SAF trip Nov 5. Pretty good for a SCASAP route!
 
miaami
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 11:09 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
miaami wrote:
LAX losing CUN/MSP and a lot service down gauged to eagle. LAX-MIA 777-300 down gauged to A-321. Lots of cuts around the system.


There are a few days in when the 77W isn't operating (late October I think), but it's still there on MIALAX.


The schedule was updated up until 11/20/17. MIA-LAX is all narrowbody from OCT 29th thru NOV 19th. Maybe they will surprise us and bring it back this winter but I think that aircraft will now operate flights 233/234 the MIA-GRU-MIA day time trip instead.
 
MAH4546
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Sun Aug 06, 2017 11:20 pm

miaami wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
miaami wrote:
LAX losing CUN/MSP and a lot service down gauged to eagle. LAX-MIA 777-300 down gauged to A-321. Lots of cuts around the system.


There are a few days in when the 77W isn't operating (late October I think), but it's still there on MIALAX.


The schedule was updated up until 11/20/17. MIA-LAX is all narrowbody from OCT 29th thru NOV 19th. Maybe they will surprise us and bring it back this winter but I think that aircraft will now operate flights 233/234 the MIA-GRU-MIA day time trip instead.


It's there on the 19th (I'm actually booked on it that day), but yes, correct.

Sad to see AA abandon this market post-merger. I now almost entirely fly JetBlue Mint, as much as I hate FLL. I'm surely not the only one. Hopefully JetBlue steals enough traffic that it forces AA's hand here. The 35 757 lie flats will, IIRC, all be Miami-based, which will open some opportunities to use them trans-con.
a.
 
lavalampluva
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:26 am

SteveXC500 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
SteveXC500 wrote:

Years away from WN expanding at MSP. Could add a few more flights but gates need to expand first.


Does Southwest actually have access to 4 full gates at MSP, or does it have to share its gates at MSP with other airlines? If Southwest actually has access to 4 full gates at MSP, Southwest definitely does have room to add additional flights out of MSP and can probably do at least 40 flights a day out of MSP. Southwest's flight schedule for Spring 2018 only has 24 flights a day out of MSP, but Southwest is currently doing 27 flights a day out of MSP. Southwest also does more flights per gate per day out of DAL and LAX than it does out of MSP and the other airports that it operates out of.


Sure, they "could" but honestly, look at the routes they have been adding at other airports lately. MSP is challenging with DL and SY as it is, so what ever metric WN uses to justify routes, they are not adding much at MSP. BNA came on this year. BWI last year? Before that, virtually stagnant. I would say the trend is limited WN growth at MSP. Plus, they will need to go net positive for aircraft beyond the loss of 737-300 retirements before they will add routes at power hub MSP.

IMO WN would add MSP-DAL before they would LAX. There is far less competition and it would be the only route to close-in DAL.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
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SteveXC500
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:44 am

MSP-DAL would be more likely than LAX. Additionally, keeping LAS year-round would as well.
 
globalcabotage
Posts: 534
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Mon Aug 07, 2017 1:24 am

ooslc wrote:
Is ORD-CDG switching from DL to AF again, or will it complement the DL flight? What A/C is going to be used?


Could this be due to DL "leasing 767s to Virgin" this winter?

AF packs their ORD flights in summer (like AA, AZ, and UA to FCO in summer - yields though(but weak in winter.
 
VictorKilo
Posts: 260
Joined: Wed Jul 05, 2006 7:39 am

Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Mon Aug 07, 2017 3:01 am

SESGDL wrote:
DL starting MCO-AMS doesn't warrant a star?

Also, enilria, thanks so much for doing this. This is always my favorite thread of the week.

Jeremy


Agreed on both accounts.

MCO-AMS is a 767-300 and appears to be a full time route or at least summer seasonal - not like the grouping of flights to AUS for SXSW.
 
MSPNWA
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Mon Aug 07, 2017 4:03 am

AA's LAX expansion from last summer isn't going so well. SEA, MCI, and OMA are pared back, and MSP is now completely gone. Disappointing to see AA leave the LAX-MSP route. Would have thought they would stick it out or at least switch to E75s before cutting it completely. Leaves a good-sized hole in their LAX network. Adding SLC-PHL while doing it is odd. Generally the flow is away from overflying hubs to uncompetitive markets and instead shifting to key competitive markets like LAX-MSP.
 
grbauc
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Mon Aug 07, 2017 5:09 am

MAH4546 wrote:
miaami wrote:
LAX losing CUN/MSP and a lot service down gauged to eagle. LAX-MIA 777-300 down gauged to A-321. Lots of cuts around the system.


There are a few days in when the 77W isn't operating (late October I think), but it's still there on MIALAX.


LAX can use a little bit of pruning it's over crowded and packed if they cut back a little bit until the gate situation gets better don't be able to give a better product.
 
grbauc
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Mon Aug 07, 2017 6:01 am

MAH4546 wrote:
miaami wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

There are a few days in when the 77W isn't operating (late October I think), but it's still there on MIALAX.


The schedule was updated up until 11/20/17. MIA-LAX is all narrowbody from OCT 29th thru NOV 19th. Maybe they will surprise us and bring it back this winter but I think that aircraft will now operate flights 233/234 the MIA-GRU-MIA day time trip instead.


It's there on the 19th (I'm actually booked on it that day), but yes, correct.

Sad to see AA abandon this market post-merger. I now almost entirely fly JetBlue Mint, as much as I hate FLL. I'm surely not the only one. Hopefully JetBlue steals enough traffic that it forces AA's hand here. The 35 757 lie flats will, IIRC, all be Miami-based, which will open some opportunities to use them trans-con.



Yea I'm sure AA is waiting to see how the market goes. I wish they would be a market leader but they seem content under Doug Parker to play follow the leader and for the most part it's work well.
 
FlyPNS1
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:05 pm

<quote>Previously it was schedule to op Christmas/NYE and then done. Now MAR-Summer.
*UA ORD-PNS MAR 0>0.8 APR 0>1.0 </quote>

Nothing really new here though as this route has been flown Spring/Summer seasonally for the past few years. It's flying right now for a few more days in August.

Interesting to see IAD-CMN go daily. That route was only started about a year ago, so must be doing relatively well.
 
miaami
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:37 pm

AA is moving some MIA flying over to Eagle, MIA-IAD down gauged to all Eagle. MIA-LIR all eagle except Sat, MIA-DTW one of three flights down gauged to Eagle
 
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compensateme
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Mon Aug 07, 2017 6:37 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
AA's LAX expansion from last summer isn't going so well. SEA, MCI, and OMA are pared back, and MSP is now completely gone. Disappointing to see AA leave the LAX-MSP route. Would have thought they would stick it out or at least switch to E75s before cutting it completely. Leaves a good-sized hole in their LAX network. Adding SLC-PHL while doing it is odd. Generally the flow is away from overflying hubs to uncompetitive markets and instead shifting to key competitive markets like LAX-MSP.


It really isn't surprising AA left LAX/MSP; over the past year, while loads remained strong, its average fare was around $170 -- similar to UA and SY's performance, but AA likely felt it could use its LAX resources elsewhere. The good news is that AA's withdrawal should help stabilize the market, which was clearly hurt from the level of competition (against demand) as well as NK upgauging to the 321. For comparison's sake, over the last four quarters, SY averaged higher fares to MCO, and NK FLL, than they did to LAX.

DL's clearly the 800 lb. gorilla in the market, commanding greater than a 40% premium over AA, UA & SY.
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
wenders825
Posts: 383
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Mon Aug 07, 2017 6:48 pm

miaami wrote:
AA is moving some MIA flying over to Eagle, MIA-IAD down gauged to all Eagle. MIA-LIR all eagle except Sat, MIA-DTW one of three flights down gauged to Eagle

they should be all E175s too, no?
 
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piedmontf284000
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Mon Aug 07, 2017 7:34 pm

ooslc wrote:
Is ORD-CDG switching from DL to AF again, or will it complement the DL flight? What A/C is going to be used?


DL is staying. In fact, on Thursday, Saturday, and Tuesday they overlap each other. I am not sure how that is going to work, but maybe there is more demand now that AA is gone from the route in winter.

AF is going to utilize the A332. Delta the 763.
 
airzona11
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Mon Aug 07, 2017 7:40 pm

Whats the deal with them getting rid of the Saturday return flight, AA515, from CUN to PHX in November? The flight is normally an out and back 752. Looks like they added a Sunday morning 738. Strange.
 
jbs2886
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Mon Aug 07, 2017 8:01 pm

piedmontf284000 wrote:
ooslc wrote:
Is ORD-CDG switching from DL to AF again, or will it complement the DL flight? What A/C is going to be used?


DL is staying. In fact, on Thursday, Saturday, and Tuesday they overlap each other. I am not sure how that is going to work, but maybe there is more demand now that AA is gone from the route in winter.

AF is going to utilize the A332. Delta the 763.


Is DL actually staying or just not updated? If staying, then 10x weekly? Also, don't think I remember AA dropping ORD-CDG for the winter, AA has historically been strong in CDG.
 
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flymco753
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Mon Aug 07, 2017 8:04 pm

I have a question for AA people, how come DTW-PHL lost an E190, and also how come DTW-CLT goes from 8 to 7 every update and goes from 5 mainline and 3 RJ's to 3 mainline and 4 RJ's? I'm trying to learn how that works.
...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
 
klakzky123
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Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Mon Aug 07, 2017 10:41 pm

compensateme wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
AA's LAX expansion from last summer isn't going so well. SEA, MCI, and OMA are pared back, and MSP is now completely gone. Disappointing to see AA leave the LAX-MSP route. Would have thought they would stick it out or at least switch to E75s before cutting it completely. Leaves a good-sized hole in their LAX network. Adding SLC-PHL while doing it is odd. Generally the flow is away from overflying hubs to uncompetitive markets and instead shifting to key competitive markets like LAX-MSP.


It really isn't surprising AA left LAX/MSP; over the past year, while loads remained strong, its average fare was around $170 -- similar to UA and SY's performance, but AA likely felt it could use its LAX resources elsewhere. The good news is that AA's withdrawal should help stabilize the market, which was clearly hurt from the level of competition (against demand) as well as NK upgauging to the 321. For comparison's sake, over the last four quarters, SY averaged higher fares to MCO, and NK FLL, than they did to LAX.

DL's clearly the 800 lb. gorilla in the market, commanding greater than a 40% premium over AA, UA & SY.


Yeah something had to give. Fares to LAX have been absurdly low. Its not that difficult to find $200 round trip fares on DL either. LAX has been a bloodbath and DL has been committed to matching fares indefinitely. I guess AA wasn't getting enough connecting traffic to justify the flight. If it was just transporting passengers paying for rock bottom MSP-LAX itineraries, there's no point to the flight. That plane can be used somewhere else. I suppose they could've switched to a regional jet like they did with Miami but again that requires a solid level of connection traffic which may or may not exist. Leisure markets from MSP can get brutally competitive with both DL, SY, NK (and sometimes WN and F9). Plus AS expanded to several cities in the west so they're bound to keep fares relatively low.

Its great for consumers though. As much as MSP remains a fortress hub, DL has ceded quite a bit of the leisure market to others.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8761
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Mon Aug 07, 2017 11:22 pm

Aliqiout wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:

I'd be surprised. I believe both UA and AA launched this route for corporate contracts that AS may not have.


I am a little surprised that MSP-LAX couldn't support five carriers: DL, UA, Sun Country and Spirit in addition to AA. But yeah, if AA (#1 at LAX and with a growing list of TPAC connections) can't make it work one has to doubt if AS can. UA shows the route is short enough for an E75.

AS can make quite a few routes out of LAX work that AA can't, or won't . Ones that immediately come to mind are CUN,LTO,STS,BWI,ANC... I am sure there are more.


We will see. It's not like AS is fighting with four competitors on blockbusters like LAX-LTO (it's not even daily) and LAX-STS. Can an airline named Alaska sustain a route to ANC? I would surely hope so.
 
atl100million
Posts: 445
Joined: Tue May 23, 2017 1:28 am

Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

Mon Aug 07, 2017 11:27 pm

klakzky123 wrote:
compensateme wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
AA's LAX expansion from last summer isn't going so well. SEA, MCI, and OMA are pared back, and MSP is now completely gone. Disappointing to see AA leave the LAX-MSP route. Would have thought they would stick it out or at least switch to E75s before cutting it completely. Leaves a good-sized hole in their LAX network. Adding SLC-PHL while doing it is odd. Generally the flow is away from overflying hubs to uncompetitive markets and instead shifting to key competitive markets like LAX-MSP.


It really isn't surprising AA left LAX/MSP; over the past year, while loads remained strong, its average fare was around $170 -- similar to UA and SY's performance, but AA likely felt it could use its LAX resources elsewhere. The good news is that AA's withdrawal should help stabilize the market, which was clearly hurt from the level of competition (against demand) as well as NK upgauging to the 321. For comparison's sake, over the last four quarters, SY averaged higher fares to MCO, and NK FLL, than they did to LAX.

DL's clearly the 800 lb. gorilla in the market, commanding greater than a 40% premium over AA, UA & SY.


Yeah something had to give. Fares to LAX have been absurdly low. Its not that difficult to find $200 round trip fares on DL either. LAX has been a bloodbath and DL has been committed to matching fares indefinitely. I guess AA wasn't getting enough connecting traffic to justify the flight. If it was just transporting passengers paying for rock bottom MSP-LAX itineraries, there's no point to the flight. That plane can be used somewhere else. I suppose they could've switched to a regional jet like they did with Miami but again that requires a solid level of connection traffic which may or may not exist. Leisure markets from MSP can get brutally competitive with both DL, SY, NK (and sometimes WN and F9). Plus AS expanded to several cities in the west so they're bound to keep fares relatively low.

Its great for consumers though. As much as MSP remains a fortress hub, DL has ceded quite a bit of the leisure market to others.


The ultra low fare environment was in LAX-MSP before AA chose to show up. They simply decided to jump into a market in which DL doesn't chase every last ULCC passenger but the economics do work of adding larger and larger aircraft and selling a certain amount of seats at economy basic/ULCC competitive fares on top of operating the most frequency in the market.

AA doesn't have the market strength to compete in other carrier hubs against the legacy carrier and one or more ULCCs.

The same principle applies to just about any other legacy carrier hub market.

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