Iberia will receive 2 new A330-200 in early 2018 and also the first 2 A350-900s in June and July so even if a couple of the 4 A340-600s that will have their lease expired during the first half of the year leave the fleet still should allow room for some growth.
The 2 A330's are only to fill the gap of the 2 that are now operating for Level, so not really net growth.
If those 4 A346 leave the fleet (whether all or some), the 2 A359 coming in will be a downgrade at a minimum in capacity, if not in aircraft number.
In an IAG investor presentation from 1-2 years ago, it stated that A346 replacement had not yet been decided.
So I hope the A346 stay until the end of their lives, which would mean the A359 would be for actual net growth. Otherwise, we can close this thread for a year, as with the current fleet setup one can hope at most for frequency increases, not new destinations. Which would make Norwegian or UX very happy - but would be a shame for IB which is doing well now.
The A359 is a capacity downgrade to the A346, and with some core routes already at or on the way to 14x weekly... I see little value in replacing 2xdaily A346 by 3xA359, given the small window of attractive flying times. I expect A35K sooner or later - but rather later, as IB will be interested in PIPed or higher MTOW A35K's.
at the end of this year the current collective agreement (contract) expires for both pilots and cabin crews so IB will try the usual carrot and stick tactic of offering more growth in long haul in exchange for increasing Iberia Express ops. When it comes to new routes in Europe it's going to depend on the ability to expand the I2 footprint.
Interesting. I2 has managed to be succesful on low-yield routes, they could certainly grow further if fleet limitations are lifted.