Giving the well situation of the Spanish airline, I'm wondering if they have plans to add new destinations

I can see they adding:


YYZ/YUL
IAD
LAX. (Year Round)
SFO
GDL/MTY
MGA
SJU. (Year Round)
GYE
ASU
VVI

CAI
BEY
DXB/AUH
IKA
DEL
BOM
BKK
SIN
HKG
PEK
ICN

What do you think?

With what planes?

Asia was always kind of challenging for IB and it would be surprising to see them serving those destinations. However, missing out BKK and HKG is probably due to the huge presence of ME3 rather than their fleet limitations.
My bet would be US, SFO and IAD in particular. Wasn't the latter one served bei Aer Lingus from MAD at one point?

My guess is that Ib, before launching new destinitions, is focusing on establishing the current ones, increasing the capacity (and frequency). Like LAX and SJU all year round, increasing de frequency on Asia and South America routes, particularly Buenos Aires, Bogota, Tokio, Shanghai and Mexico. I think they might launch the odd European destination.
I'd love to see IB growing into the Asian market like Singapore, Hong Kong or Bangkok, but that's clearly not Ibs priority.

That would require about 30 A330s. With at least 238t MTOW. And GE engines.
I don't expect the widebody bubble to burst tonight, and the IAG orderes birds are going to Level.
Maybe they could find 4-5 in the near term.
IMHO PEK, YYZ, HKG are the most likely out of your list.
Adding a further daily service to EZE, LIM or SCL could be adding more revenue though. (Not sure about the range for MAD-SCL)

stylo777 wrote:

My bet would be US, SFO and IAD in particular. Wasn't the latter one served bei Aer Lingus from MAD at one point?

Yes, Aer Lingus used to operate nonstop MAD-IAD but dropped service years ago. The route is currently served by UA but it's daily seasonal not year round. I can see IB launching 4 Weekly 330-200 MAD-IAD.

Agree with tobsw. I would not be surprised if at some point IB decides to have 14 weekly services to MEX at a minimum year-long (with extra frequencies in summer, Easter and Christmas). That said, it would not be a bad idea to launch MTY. Lots of potential for MTY-Europe, which at the moment is mostly served by AA, DL, UA via DFW, ATL or IAH (or by AM backtracking through MEX). Alternatively, IB could also launch BCN-MEX (AM attempted it in the past but the global financial crisis killed it); IAG might be tempted to use Level for this, but I believe there is a market for legacy service at a profit.

YUL was an IB destination in the past. Perhaps they might consider bringing YUL back?

On a related note, has IB been allocated some of the A359s that IAG ordered? IB could do wonders with that plane. BTW, the A350-1000 would be more than able to do MEX-MAD and MAD-EZE at full payload, right?

EddieDude wrote:

...IB could also launch BCN-MEX (AM attempted it in the past but the global financial crisis killed it); IAG might be tempted to use Level for this, but I believe there is a market for legacy service at a profit.

By company policy (long story short: politics, unions, tradition,etc), IB only flies long haul from MAD (hence Level is the one operating from BCN). That wont happen.

EddieDude wrote:

...On a related note, has IB been allocated some of the A359s that IAG ordered? IB could do wonders with that plane. BTW, the A350-1000 would be more than able to do MEX-MAD and MAD-EZE at full payload, right?

It has locked A359s (8+8). Deliveries for 2018-2020

I can't see them trying to compete with CX for HKG when they could just try and deepen a codeshare arrangement.

I wouldn't count out BKK. IB seems to be able to make low yielding leisure traffic work and I hear a lot of Spanish on the streets around Asia. Though I'd say to go with KUL to take advantage of MH connections with oneworld.

In America, Toronto is the obvious next choice. Then I'd say Washington or SFO, maybe even PHX (it is part of the TATL JV, after all and it's the only AA hub without service to MAD) or move LAX to year round. YUL is a non-starter. Years ago Montréal used to be the most important business destination in Canada but that title is now solidly in the hands of Toronto these days.

I wonder if WestJet would be up for a codeshare agreement to promote Canadian connections?

And while things are bleak right now, IB needs to stay ready to be able to ramp up CCS in a hurry because once the situation on the ground there changes there's going to be a lot of people going back and forth between Madrid and Venezuela.

Luisvalero wrote:

stylo777 wrote:

My bet would be US, SFO and IAD in particular. Wasn't the latter one served bei Aer Lingus from MAD at one point?

Yes, Aer Lingus used to operate nonstop MAD-IAD but dropped service years ago. The route is currently served by UA but it's daily seasonal not year round. I can see IB launching 4 Weekly 330-200 MAD-IAD.

Actually, Aer Lingus just flew the service for United. who paid for and marketed the flight. It lasted a couple of years and EI even hired local F/As, based at IAD, for this service. EI had at the time, right after the 2008 crisis, a surplus of aircraft and could probably bid this flying for UA at a fraction of the cost had UA done this in house. Needless to say, the arrangement was not a hit with the UA unions.

Iberia also operated MAD-IAD around the same time, seasonally, but it did not last more than a couple of summers. It did not help that the flights were operated by the A340-300s. Maybe now with a better economic environment on both sides of the pond and the superior economics of the A330, it'd make sense.

LupineChemist wrote:

And while things are bleak right now, IB needs to stay ready to be able to ramp up CCS in a hurry because once the situation on the ground there changes there's going to be a lot of people going back and forth between Madrid and Venezuela.

Ever the optimist

IMO the two main gaps in long haul for IB are PEK and SFO.

LupineChemist wrote:

I can't see them trying to compete with CX for HKG when they could just try and deepen a codeshare arrangement.

I wouldn't count out BKK. IB seems to be able to make low yielding leisure traffic work and I hear a lot of Spanish on the streets around Asia. Though I'd say to go with KUL to take advantage of MH connections with oneworld.

Yeah, I completely agree. It is just in my dreams. I know that BKK, HKG or SIN is a no-go for IB. Yields too low and EK, QR and EY dominate that market. Although HKG is served by Cathay. The problem with KUL that will generate very very very low yields. Even BA and Malaysian are struggling from LHR.

LupineChemist wrote:

In America, Toronto is the obvious next choice. Then I'd say Washington or SFO, maybe even PHX (it is part of the TATL JV, after all and it's the only AA hub without service to MAD) or move LAX to year round. YUL is a non-starter. Years ago Montréal used to be the most important business destination in Canada but that title is now solidly in the hands of Toronto these days.

I wonder if WestJet would be up for a codeshare agreement to promote Canadian connections?

SFO is a good destination, but I guess IB would make more money on another MEX, BOG or EZE frequency for the same fleet utilisation. SFO should be an easy 1 stop destination, or non stop with LEVEL and Norwegian from BCN. Unless United launches MAD from SFO or Norwegian OAK from MAD, my guess is that IB has no rush in launching SFO (wish I was wrong). But I think SFO is the next logical destination for IB.

Perhaps PHX is a better route with AA metal?

Canada I think is a no go at the moment, but happily proved wrong.

LupineChemist wrote:

And while things are bleak right now, IB needs to stay ready to be able to ramp up CCS in a hurry because once the situation on the ground there changes there's going to be a lot of people going back and forth between Madrid and Venezuela.

Too optimistic. The Maduro´s dictatorship will last a few more years (or until there´s a military coup, but so far it seems Maduro has the military under control). It´s more likely that IB suspends the route in the near future.

LupineChemist wrote:

I can't see them trying to compete with CX for HKG when they could just try and deepen a codeshare arrangement.



In America, Toronto is the obvious next choice. Then I'd say Washington or SFO, maybe even PHX (it is part of the TATL JV, after all and it's the only AA hub without service to MAD) or move LAX to year round. YUL is a non-starter. Years ago Montréal used to be the most important business destination in Canada but that title is now solidly in the hands of Toronto these days.

.

Really? so Iberia going up against a daily Air Canada 787-9 with 298 seats on a small O&D where the point of sale split is heavily in Canada's favour and a currency impact that is unfavorable versus the Euro all of a sudden is an obvious choice?

I wasn't aware that Iberia had the financial wherewithal to have a portfolio of loss leaders that will be their Toronto or Washington routes.

I think YYZ because IB has a good network for Spain, Italy, N. Africa and TLV

With the economy in Spain improving I could also see relaunching IST.

And I stand by my CCS statement. The country will be a mess for awhile but there is a LOT of foreign money waiting on the sidelines to rebuild and Spanish contractors will take the lead in that. Also lots of government traffic so lots of very high yield type of passengers.

I think WAW and HEL can be added.

LupineChemist wrote:

I think YYZ because IB has a good network for Spain, Italy, N. Africa and TLV

With the economy in Spain improving I could also see relaunching IST.

And I stand by my CCS statement. The country will be a mess for awhile but there is a LOT of foreign money waiting on the sidelines to rebuild and Spanish contractors will take the lead in that. Also lots of government traffic so lots of very high yield type of passengers.

all of which is extremely well served by Air Transat and Air Canada (Rouge). North Africa is a catchment that is unique to Montreal not Toronto in this specific case.

I'm not debating YYZ vs. YUL - i'm suggesting that Toronto is not a slam dunk and just because it's a major North American city doesn't necessarily mean that there is a case for profitability. Going to secondary cities where there is less competition in the overall Iberia network catchment might also be a good strategy.

I feel like they should be one of the Big EU 5? They have so many connections to offer from MAD and BCN and they are great airports... Could they not take away from BA, AF, KL, LH if they perfected their product?

BreezyIAH wrote:

I feel like they should be one of the Big EU 5? They have so many connections to offer from MAD and BCN and they are great airports... Could they not take away from BA, AF, KL, LH if they perfected their product?

MAD and BCN are rather undesirable from a geographic perspective as connecting hubs for Northern and Central Europeans, where most of traffic generating centers are in Europe. The only exception to that is to Latin America, Miami and the Caribbean, which is Madrid's #1 selling point both for Europeans and Latin Americans, for the latter it truly is the gateway to Europe, as well as a brilliant connecting point for TLV, CAI, IST, AMM and the Mediterranean.

18 posts and no DTW! A new record!

IAD
SFO
MGA
GYE
FLL
YYZ
HKG
MTY
MEM
WAW
PUJ

Jayafe wrote:

By company policy (long story short: politics, unions, tradition,etc), IB only flies long haul from MAD (hence Level is the one operating from BCN). That wont happen.

Thanks for clarifying that; I thought it was just a historical occurrence but not that it was so set in stone. I find it to be a quite silly policy.

Jayafe wrote:

It has locked A359s (8+8). Deliveries for 2018-2020

Thanks for that as well. No -1000s? IB will have a fascinating mixed A330-A340-A359 fleet for long-haul. I guess MEX will continue to receive the A346 for years to come due to its capacity.

IB couldn´t sustain a year round flight to LAX, i can´t imagine IB flying to SFO, Toronto it´s a possibility because have a lot of spaniards living in Canada as imigrants. But it´s more important now for IB to increase some flights in Latin America to compete with Air Europa, to mantain their position of the HUB form Latin America to Europe.

MGA seems like a no go, there is little to no premium traffic, all VFR. GDL and MTY could probably do quite well though.

I wonder how many secondary destionations they will open up with their new 321LRs....

EddieDude wrote:

Jayafe wrote:

By company policy (long story short: politics, unions, tradition,etc), IB only flies long haul from MAD (hence Level is the one operating from BCN). That wont happen.

Thanks for clarifying that; I thought it was just a historical occurrence but not that it was so set in stone. I find it to be a quite silly policy.

Need to understand Spanish mentality and catalonian situation, with 2 big cities (one the capital) fighting, a semi-broken airline handled by politicians and a really sensitive political environment.

EddieDude wrote:

Jayafe wrote:

It has locked A359s (8+8). Deliveries for 2018-2020

Thanks for that as well. No -1000s? IB will have a fascinating mixed A330-A340-A359 fleet for long-haul. I guess MEX will continue to receive the A346 for years to come due to its capacity.

The first 8 are A359s 100%, the other 8 options are up to IAG, these days order are modified up to the market in a matter of months, but looking for commonality seems unlikely the dont go to surebets. I personally would love to see A380s to MEX+EZE, but that is too risky for IAG to approve it these days.

A340s were recently retrofitted including Economy+, so I would expect to see them around for at least another 5-7 years.

It's a year now since IB relaunched MAD-JNB...any idea how this is performing? Any chance for this route to be increased from the current 3 weekly?

With what planes?

Indeed. With 2 A332's already operating on behalf of Level, IB should be pretty stretched thin at the moment (hence why 1 A332 was silently ordered by IAG for IB in April, to partially compensate for this loss). No new growth is possible before the A359's come in, unless IAG makes more opportunistic last-of-the-line A330 orders, which I wouldn't rule out...

I too expect consolidation of current routes (going year-round on seasonals, daily to Asia, more frequencies to "core" LatAm markets), though I would wish for some new ones like GYE, VVI or ASU, and a return to FOR and REC. BKK I could see by Level from BCN, not at IB. Also CAI. I don't expect any more Asia for the time being; they will see how current routes work first.

But long-haul also needs feed. There are still many gaps in the EU network, and IB should IMO expand into non-hub European cities - places where its citizens are used to connecting to everywhere anyway, and where there is less competition. More places such as HAM, launched some 2 years ago and which has survived a price dumping campaign by FR which made even 4U and DY give up on the route.

Continuing in terms of out of the box thinking, I would like to see more Africa. It's not a huge market, but it is high-yielding. And one thing is easily forgotten: where others have to fill at least an A330 - thus limiting destinations and frequencies - IB can cover everything north of the Congo river with A319CEO's, or even further with any A32xNEO. There is untapped potential here, and IMO MAD should be developed into IAG's Africa hub.

MAD and BCN are rather undesirable from a geographic perspective as connecting hubs for Northern and Central Europeans, where most of traffic generating centers are in Europe. The only exception to that is to Latin America, Miami and the Caribbean

That depends on where you're going. Plenty of potential already in the markets you mention. MAD doesn't neet to be, nor will ever be, a North Atlantic hub. And IAG now will develop DUB for that anyway. But you forgot one other market (which IMO, IAG has also forgotten): Africa, as I wrote above. Which is not only attractive from an EU connecting point of view, but also from North America.

grjplanes wrote:

It's a year now since IB relaunched MAD-JNB...any idea how this is performing? Any chance for this route to be increased from the current 3 weekly?

I've had to fly to London and Paris to connect despite the direct because the fares were too high for my corporate policy. So I'm guessing they're selling really well. Lots of Spanish businesses in S. Africa now.

Toronto is the first option in the next long haul destination.....

[*]

RalXWB wrote:

I wonder how many secondary destionations they will open up with their new 321LRs....

They aren't getting the LR just the standard version of the A321neo.

Not yet

IB will most likely add 2 or 3 European cities to their network. The only Asian destination left for them at the moment would be PEK, other destinations wouldn't be profitable enough. In the Americas, they're most likely to strengthen their Latin American presence before adding something new. YYZ is an option IB studied in the past, so it's probably still on their list. They also looked at PHL but AA flies that year-round. I would say LAX year-round or IAD. EI and BA already fly to IAD and IB did in the past. UA has increased capacity from 757 to a 767. Perhaps IB could put an A330 on the route and take passengers away from UA with their Spanish and EU connections out of MAD.

As for Africa, IB would have to add destinations they lost before launching new routes. ACC and LOS.

Jayafe wrote:

a semi-broken airline handled by politicians

Which airline is that?

Jayafe wrote:

The first 8 are A359s 100%, the other 8 options are up to IAG, these days order are modified up to the market in a matter of months, but looking for commonality seems unlikely the dont go to surebets. I personally would love to see A380s to MEX+EZE, but that is too risky for IAG to approve it these days.

IAG certainly wants a "few" more A380s for BA at an attractive price (meaning second-hand perhaps). I think IAG has also mentioned that a few IB routes could sustain the A380 at least seasonally, but I concur with you that it is highly unlikely that IB will get the A380. Having said that, some or all of the eight options that you mention could certainly be exercised for the A350-1000. I can see that plane in IB colors flying to MIA, MEX, EZE and maybe some other destinations!

Helsinki (HEL)

^of course

I think expanding their European network to new destinations but possibly with I2.

EddieDude wrote:

Jayafe wrote:

a semi-broken airline handled by politicians

Which airline is that?

That one is IB pre-IAG, which traditions and mentality were kept by the new owners, in the end it is part of a corporation, but keeps being a company with its own structure and heritage.

PS: IAG wants A380s 2nd hand at a bargain price. They tried with MHs and they were far far away from closing a deal with the price.

SFO
IAD
EWR
DFW
IAH

KSBOS wrote:

SFO
IAD
EWR
DFW
IAH

DFW is already served by American Airlines and possibly have an IB Codeshare.
Can anyone confirm if IB has a codeshare on AAs DFW-MAD flight?

TheGeordielad wrote:

KSBOS wrote:

SFO
IAD
EWR
DFW
IAH

DFW is already served by American Airlines and possibly have an IB Codeshare.
Can anyone confirm if IB has a codeshare on AAs DFW-MAD flight?

At least during the last few years, indeed.

MAD-DFW
IB7153/54
Operated by American Airlines (B789)

IB have had a codeshare with AA on DFW to MAD since 06 May 2009.

American Airlines, British Airways, Finnair, Iberia have a transatlantic joint venture 'JV' so code share on all routes to the USA.

Iberia will receive 2 new A330-200 in early 2018 and also the first 2 A350-900s in June and July so even if a couple of the 4 A340-600s that will have their lease expired during the first half of the year leave the fleet still should allow room for some growth. LEVEL order for 3 A330-200's is separate from the Iberia order book so LEVEL growth, whether this happens under their own AOC or under the current arrangement, shouldn't affect Iberia plans.

My bet for a new destination in 2018 would be GDL, Interjet feed is working wonders for Iberia providing large numbers of connecting passengers and this summer MEX is up to x17 weekly so I think next year it's likely that we see MEX back to x14 and a second mexican destination being added.

Also I'd expect IB recovering the 2nd daily flight to GRU and a frequency increase for NRT and JNB which are working well in loads and yields. PVG loads are good but yields are low due to the MU presence and the geographical location of Madrid makes any connecting traffic doesn't help, also I don't see PEK as a potential route for the very same reasons as CA has very high loads but yields are low.

SFO would work for IB but seems that under the JV they're more keen on making LAX work year around rather than opening a new destination.

Also at the end of this year the current collective agreement (contract) expires for both pilots and cabin crews so IB will try the usual carrot and stick tactic of offering more growth in long haul in exchange for increasing Iberia Express ops. When it comes to new routes in Europe it's going to depend on the ability to expand the I2 footprint.

Jayafe wrote:

The first 8 are A359s 100%, the other 8 options are up to IAG, these days order are modified up to the market in a matter of months, but looking for commonality seems unlikely the dont go to surebets. I personally would love to see A380s to MEX+EZE, but that is too risky for IAG to approve it these days.

A340s were recently retrofitted including Economy+, so I would expect to see them around for at least another 5-7 years.

The current firm order for Iberia is for 16 A350-900 as it stands today, obviously IAG holds option for additional frames and a conversion of some units to -1000 is always possible. Y+ only has been installed on a handful of 340-600s but at the moment it's not planned that all of them get it retrofited as maybe some of the frames might leave the fleet. There're currently 4 frames which are up for sale on the Airbus asset management site as back in the day Airbus offered asset value guarantees on those units which now have been exercised by the lessors that own them. In the last year Iberia has taken advantage of low market value of the A340-600 and purchased some of the units which lease was expiring but not sure if this will be the case for the ones which are finishing their lease in 2018 as this will only be done if they believe that they can grow profitably.

Regarding the A380 sincerely I don't think it works for airlines that don't offer First as the configuration would be around 600 seats and I don't see IB filling 80-90 J seats on any route and with the introduction of Y+ what has been downsized is the J cabin not Y so while I think that a subfleet of 350-1000 is doable I dont think that A380 has any remote chance.

IIRC last year IB maintained BOS and LAX until the end of the year, as opposed to the usual seasonal March to October route. Don't know about this year though. I have always wished these two routes were year-round and the fact that BCN went from having no service at all to California to have two airlines (LEVEL & DY) throughout the whole year makes me wonder: if BCN can, why can't MAD? I know it's a different model (low cost vs legacy carriers) but still Barcelona's flights to the US West Coast came out of nowhere...

julianrv wrote:

My bet for a new destination in 2018 would be GDL, Interjet feed is working wonders for Iberia providing large numbers of connecting passengers and this summer MEX is up to x17 weekly so I think next year it's likely that we see MEX back to x14 and a second mexican destination being added...

Regarding the A380 sincerely I don't think it works for airlines that don't offer First as the configuration would be around 600 seats and I don't see IB filling 80-90 J seats on any route and with the introduction of Y+ what has been downsized is the J cabin not Y so while I think that a subfleet of 350-1000 is doable I dont think that A380 has any remote chance.

Interesting that Interjet has worked well for IB. I suppose it also has become an important AA partner. Maybe it is time for Interjet to assess whether there is room in Mexico for a second full-service carrier. If the answer is yes, I could see them evolving into a carrier with J and Y, plus a more "traditional" loyalty program and, maybe eventually, oneworld membership. Anyway, on the subject of GDL, I am not sure if MTY would be better. Unless I am mistaken, MTY seems to have a wealthier population profile, given that it is a very large manufacturing/trade/finance center. Plus, Interjet seems to have a bigger presence at MTY than at GDL, which is more of Volaris and Viva territory.

I think your point re: the A380 is very good. J, W and Y in an A380 would mean a substantially large number of seats, even with a large J cabin. I think IB will eventually get the A350-1000.

vinaixa wrote:

Barcelona's flights to the US West Coast came out of nowhere...

Flights from BCN to California came of the 207,000 indirect traffic in 2016 according the BARDC. In July, load factor was 94% LAX and 84% OAK (DY and LEVEL). OAK is year round and LAX year-round for DY and seasonal for LEVEL but I bet that LAX will be year-round for LEVEL in 2018 with the third aircraft based at BCN.

EddieDude wrote:

julianrv wrote:

My bet for a new destination in 2018 would be GDL, Interjet feed is working wonders for Iberia providing large numbers of connecting passengers and this summer MEX is up to x17 weekly so I think next year it's likely that we see MEX back to x14 and a second mexican destination being added...

Regarding the A380 sincerely I don't think it works for airlines that don't offer First as the configuration would be around 600 seats and I don't see IB filling 80-90 J seats on any route and with the introduction of Y+ what has been downsized is the J cabin not Y so while I think that a subfleet of 350-1000 is doable I dont think that A380 has any remote chance.

Interesting that Interjet has worked well for IB. I suppose it also has become an important AA partner. Maybe it is time for Interjet to assess whether there is room in Mexico for a second full-service carrier. If the answer is yes, I could see them evolving into a carrier with J and Y, plus a more "traditional" loyalty program and, maybe eventually, oneworld membership. Anyway, on the subject of GDL, I am not sure if MTY would be better. Unless I am mistaken, MTY seems to have a wealthier population profile, given that it is a very large manufacturing/trade/finance center. Plus, Interjet seems to have a bigger presence at MTY than at GDL, which is more of Volaris and Viva territory.

I think your point re: the A380 is very good. J, W and Y in an A380 would mean a substantially large number of seats, even with a large J cabin. I think IB will eventually get the A350-1000.

One would think MTY would be the first to get service by IB due to it being more of a business-industrial hub for Mexico, but IB sells more tickets out of GDL to MAD and has studied and determined there are enough passengers to warrant a direct flight as soon as possibly 2018 when more A330 arrive. They would have already started flying 3x per week to GDL, but it got lucky and obtained extra slots at MEX and decided to go 3x daily on certain days. Mexico is IB's crown jewel market, so naturally, it has to continue to grow the pot.

http://www.transponder1200.com/iberia-p ... adalajara/

http://t21.com.mx/opinion/vuelo/2017/08 ... dmx-madrid

http://www.eleconomista.es/transportes/ ... atina.html

Slightly off topic, which flagship route you think IB should use for marketing the A359 next year? Established or new destination?

Jayafe wrote:

Slightly off topic, which flagship route you think IB should use for marketing the A359 next year? Established or new destination?

I think EZE/MEX/GRU/SCL, I think those are IB's flagship routes.

IB also need to "try" the A359 in BOG to see if it can make it out of there without restrictions. Remember BOG is high and the runway is not particularly long.

But if IB is going to replace 346 with its new 359 on key routes such as EZE/SCL/GRU/MEX/BOG/LIM, wouldn't that mean a big decline on seats offered? I think IB should also order A350-1000 to replace A340-642 on these flagship routes