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ADrum23
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TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Tue Aug 08, 2017 2:33 am

So all the talk right now is focused on which mid-sized city will get TATL service next (or new TATL service if they already do).

I want to now ask the question which mid-sized city will get TPAC service. Cities like AUS, RDU, BNA, MSY, CLT, etc, have shown interest in TPAC flights at one point or another. Granted, it will not be as easy as TATL service and will take longer to land, but it could be doable.

Which mid-sized city will we see direct TPAC service launched from first? And what will the planes be? Can the Boeing 787 Dreamliners reach Japan, China, etc, from the eastern United States?
 
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treebeard787
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Tue Aug 08, 2017 2:42 am

ADrum23 wrote:
.


Can the Boeing 787 Dreamliners reach Japan, China, etc, from the eastern United States?


Yes. Yes it can, with ease.
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/JAL7 ... /KBOS/RJAA

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/CHH4 ... /KBOS/ZBAA
Allons-y!
 
ADrum23
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Tue Aug 08, 2017 2:46 am

treebeard787 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
.


Can the Boeing 787 Dreamliners reach Japan, China, etc, from the eastern United States?


Yes. Yes it can, with ease.
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/JAL7 ... /KBOS/RJAA

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/CHH4 ... /KBOS/ZBAA


Those are both 789's, what about the 788's?
 
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TransWorldOne
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Tue Aug 08, 2017 3:04 am

I think we'll see the return of TPAC to SLC before any of the cities you've mentioned. I'd also expect to see PDX gain more TPAC within the next few years. The cities you mentioned would all be very long and thin routes that would overfly hubs with an established TPAC operation (MSP, ORD, SEA, DTW, NYC) so there would have to be a premium demand. AUS seems like the most likely candidate of those cities. Maybe CLT, being an AA hub.
 
theasianguy
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Tue Aug 08, 2017 3:04 am

ADrum23 wrote:
treebeard787 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
.


Can the Boeing 787 Dreamliners reach Japan, China, etc, from the eastern United States?


Yes. Yes it can, with ease.
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/JAL7 ... /KBOS/RJAA

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/CHH4 ... /KBOS/ZBAA


Those are both 789's, what about the 788's?


For sure:
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/CHH ... /KBOS/ZSPD

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/AMX ... /ZSPD/MMMX

Max range of a 788 is 8463 miles.
 
airbazar
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Tue Aug 08, 2017 1:26 pm

That's a tricky question to answer because such route would likely be served by an Asian carrier however there are still untapped large market by nearly all Asian carriers, and i would expect them to start there before venturing into mid-size markets. For example, no one serves MIA. JL doesn't serve SEA, IAH, or ATL. ANA doesn't serve BOS, DFW, or ATL. CX doesn't serve SEA. KE is the only airline that has pretty much tapped all large markets but somehow are still avoiding BOS.
That leaves us with the Chinese carriers. They may be the first to serve one of the listed mid-size markets due to China's "one route, one airline" policy but at the same time, they have "mid-size markets" of their own that are in some case larger than our own large markets, so they may just continue to tap routes from U.S. large cities to China's mid-size cities.
If I have to give an answer I'd say KE ICN-BOS, If it's only about the cities listed in the initial post, I would guess JL with NRT-CLT.
 
bzcat
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:03 pm

BOS already has TPAC service, just not to ICN.

The challenge with midsize US cities on TPAC is demand. The TATL service to midsize US cities are primarily driven by Europe-originating sales and I think similar demand pattern has to develop in TPAC (i.e. Asia-originating travel demand to places like SAN, BNA, CLT, AUS etc.) before we will see service.

Business travel between midsize US cities and Asian hubs are relatively lower vs European hubs - e.g. CLT Europe has predictable level of business travel due to manufacturing and banking ties, but I'm not seeing any sort of significant traffic driver from CLT to Asia. And US originating leisure travel can easily be funneled through existing US hubs. Until outbound tourist traffic from Asia starts to demand direct flights to midsize US cities, I don't think there will be any urgency from either US or Asian carriers to start service.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:31 pm

bzcat wrote:
The challenge with midsize US cities on TPAC is demand. The TATL service to midsize US cities are primarily driven by Europe-originating sales and I think similar demand pattern has to develop in TPAC (i.e. Asia-originating travel demand to places like SAN, BNA, CLT, AUS etc.) before we will see service.


BNA has that sort of demand to Japan/TYO, but the level of Japanese investment and involvement in Nashville almost makes it the exception that proves the rule. Another issue with many of these routes is the aircraft. Both JL and NH have fairly premium configurations in most of their 788s, which is not necessarily the right layout for secondary US routes.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
2travel2know2
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:47 pm

It's actually a lot a question of demand from either side of the Pacific, so one could probably expect Asian hubs (take for example Star Alliance hubs) ICN, NRT, PEK, PVG, TPE to have flights within a year or two to US/Canada West Coast airports such as ANC, PDX, SEA, SMF, ONT, SNA (?), SAN, PHX, DEN, YVR, YEG, YYC; specially when there are airport pairs not currently flown by any airline.
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
jbpdx
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Tue Aug 08, 2017 7:19 pm

2travel2know2 wrote:
It's actually a lot a question of demand from either side of the Pacific, so one could probably expect Asian hubs (take for example Star Alliance hubs) ICN, NRT, PEK, PVG, TPE to have flights within a year or two to US/Canada West Coast airports such as ANC, PDX, SEA, SMF, ONT, SNA (?), SAN, PHX, DEN, YVR, YEG, YYC; specially when there are airport pairs not currently flown by any airline.


YVR and SEA already have multiple flights to all those cities. Forget ANC, too few people; SNA, inadequate runway; and SMF, too close to Bay Area. Although there's talk of CI to ONT, I doubt it.
^
 
2travel2know2
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Tue Aug 08, 2017 8:00 pm

jbpdx wrote:
YVR and SEA already have multiple flights to all those cities. Forget ANC, too few people; SNA, inadequate runway; and SMF, too close to Bay Area. Although there's talk of CI to ONT, I doubt it.
RIght about YVR, SEA; and SNA.
However Asian tourists would love seasonal summer flights to ANC.
Wouldn't rule out some Asian hub - SMF someday, as "it's too close to SFO" was used against Asia-SJC flights a while ago and SJC now does have Asian non-stops.
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
jubguy3
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Tue Aug 08, 2017 8:22 pm

I think SLC will see TPAC service sooner than later - our new airport is under construction (completion of the first phase in 2020, should be able to handle much more widebody traffic), DL announced a JV with KE, SLC's AMS / CDG flights have been performing very well, and the LHR flight has been good. SLC sees slightly more traffic to Asia because of the tech industry (1/7th of the flash memory produced in the world is produced in Lehi, UT) and SLC is a popular skiing destination / hub to the mountain west for SkyTeam. Whether the economics exist is unknown by me but it seems like the conditions for a TPAC flight are in SLC's favor.

If we see a flight on either KE or DL to ICN, I would imagine that it would have to either use a DL A350 (which I don't see delta giving up from DTW) or one of KE's 787-9 (though KE only has 3 in service and 7 orders left) - SLC is hot and high and the previous NRT flight we saw immediately after the NW merger was cancelled because DL was taking too many restrictions on payload with the aircraft they were using at the time, and I don't think the demand was quite there. Its unfortunate that DL cancelled their 787 order because I think that would have put SLC in a position to see more transoceanic traffic - a lot of Delta's fleet are either too large or take too many payload restrictions because SLC is hot and high.
 
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flyPIT
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Tue Aug 08, 2017 10:55 pm

FLYi
 
globalcabotage
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Tue Aug 08, 2017 10:56 pm

TPAC and TATL are totally different markets. Look at LHR vs. NRT! JFK is shuttle to LHR and ORD is 9X daily. Not 1/2 that to NRT.

Sure, stage length is an issue, but there is much more "vacation" traffic to Europe that shows in the summer explosion of flights.
 
fsafsx
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Tue Aug 08, 2017 11:27 pm

Indy is perfect for an Asia flight
 
airbazar
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:18 pm

bzcat wrote:
BOS already has TPAC service, just not to ICN.

Right but the question was not, which city without TPAC service will get it first? The question in the OP was simply, which mid-size city will get TPAC service next?
 
airbazar
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:19 pm

bzcat wrote:
BOS already has TPAC service, just not to ICN.

Right but the question was not, which market without TPAC service will get it first? The question in the OP was simply, which mid-size market will get TPAC service next?
 
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MinnesotaPlanes
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Thu Aug 10, 2017 10:48 pm

airbazar wrote:
That's a tricky question to answer because such route would likely be served by an Asian carrier however there are still untapped large market by nearly all Asian carriers, and i would expect them to start there before venturing into mid-size markets. For example, no one serves MIA. JL doesn't serve SEA, IAH, or ATL. ANA doesn't serve BOS, DFW, or ATL. CX doesn't serve SEA. KE is the only airline that has pretty much tapped all large markets but somehow are still avoiding BOS.
That leaves us with the Chinese carriers. They may be the first to serve one of the listed mid-size markets due to China's "one route, one airline" policy but at the same time, they have "mid-size markets" of their own that are in some case larger than our own large markets, so they may just continue to tap routes from U.S. large cities to China's mid-size cities.
If I have to give an answer I'd say KE ICN-BOS, If it's only about the cities listed in the initial post, I would guess JL with NRT-CLT.
If CLT gets JL service, and BOS gets KE sevice, MSP should get at least one of the two
 
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MinnesotaPlanes
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Thu Aug 10, 2017 10:51 pm

NO-ONE IS TALKING ABOUT MSP. MSP SHOULD GET MORE TPAC. LOOK AT THE OTHER MSP TATL/TPAC FORUM. (sorry for the all caps, just really passionate about MSP getting excluded from this conversation.
 
globalcabotage
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Thu Aug 10, 2017 11:03 pm

fsafsx wrote:
Indy is perfect for an Asia flight


Oh dear God, Detroit south with entitlements to every major international market nonstop.

This entitled to LHR, now NRT is getting out of hand. IND is a short drive/flight to ORD and DTW. No reason for IND to NRT.

Sure, you said Asia, but substitute ICN for NRT and the same result.

I'm sure IND ( substitute BNA, CLE, CMH, CVG, MCI, PIT, STL, etc.) can all support flights to CDG, FRA, GRU, HKG, LHR, NRT, SIN, SYD, etc.
 
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BWIAirport
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:43 am

There has been a push (so far obviously unsuccessfully) to land an Asian carrier at BWI over the last four years or so. I think PHL or CLT make sense for JL because of the OneWorld connections, but BWI could fit in well for HU to PEK, or OZ to compete with IAD's KE service. Governor Hogan has pushed for the issue on account of his Japanese wife, and Johns Hopkins attracts a lot of Asian traffic as well, and BWI is much closer than IAD for the vast majority of Baltimore and its suburbs.
SWA, UAL, DAL, AWE, ASA, TRS, DLH, CLH, AFR, BAW, EIN, AAL, FFT | E190 DC94 CRJ2 B712 B733 B737 B738 B739 B744 B752 B753 B762 B77W A319 A320 A20N A321 A333 A343 A388 MD88
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Fri Aug 11, 2017 3:09 am

globalcabotage wrote:
fsafsx wrote:
Indy is perfect for an Asia flight


Oh dear God, Detroit south with entitlements to every major international market nonstop.

This entitled to LHR, now NRT is getting out of hand. IND is a short drive/flight to ORD and DTW. No reason for IND to NRT.

Sure, you said Asia, but substitute ICN for NRT and the same result.

I'm sure IND ( substitute BNA, CLE, CMH, CVG, MCI, PIT, STL, etc.) can all support flights to CDG, FRA, GRU, HKG, LHR, NRT, SIN, SYD, etc.


I agree with you, but you need to chill out, idk maybe it's because you are from Chicago, but every single time you post something, it is to bash BNA, CLE, CMH, CVG, MCI, PIT, STL, and IND.

I can understand if you don't agree with something, but just take it down a notch... and relax....
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
DaufuskieGuy
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Fri Aug 11, 2017 4:33 am

from a hub and msa standpoint, jl or aa phl nrt seems most likely to me.
 
jubguy3
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Fri Aug 11, 2017 6:30 am

MinnesotaPlanes wrote:
NO-ONE IS TALKING ABOUT MSP. MSP SHOULD GET MORE TPAC. LOOK AT THE OTHER MSP TATL/TPAC FORUM. (sorry for the all caps, just really passionate about MSP getting excluded from this conversation.

... aren't you the guy that said that Denver doesn't have any tourism draw (in reference to MSP)? I've been hearing rumors that KE is considering service to an unserved delta hub... only out of spite do I hope that SLC gets it and not MSP. I know it's unlikely considering the widebody gate restrictions at SLC currently until the terminal redevelopment program is complete, and the hot+high issue / tire speed but out of spite I want to steal Korean air from Minneapolis (or whoever else gets it) now.

MSP can / has to wait it's turn - you already had the haneda flight and seeing as that MSP is in close proximity to DTW I don't think it's super likely. Just as we have to wait for our pickings at the carcass after Seattle and LAX get their share...
 
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Cvgspotter15
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Fri Aug 11, 2017 1:51 pm

jubguy3 wrote:
MinnesotaPlanes wrote:
NO-ONE IS TALKING ABOUT MSP. MSP SHOULD GET MORE TPAC. LOOK AT THE OTHER MSP TATL/TPAC FORUM. (sorry for the all caps, just really passionate about MSP getting excluded from this conversation.

... aren't you the guy that said that Denver doesn't have any tourism draw (in reference to MSP)? I've been hearing rumors that KE is considering service to an unserved delta hub... only out of spite do I hope that SLC gets it and not MSP. I know it's unlikely considering the widebody gate restrictions at SLC currently until the terminal redevelopment program is complete, and the hot+high issue / tire speed but out of spite I want to steal Korean air from Minneapolis (or whoever else gets it) now.

MSP can / has to wait it's turn - you already had the haneda flight and seeing as that MSP is in close proximity to DTW I don't think it's super likely. Just as we have to wait for our pickings at the carcass after Seattle and LAX get their share...


What is the draw to MSP (besides delta). Any businesses? Any reason they should get an Asia over BOS or CLT because they deserve it more.
 
izbtmnhd
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Fri Aug 11, 2017 1:54 pm

With TPAC you folks are thinking backwards, to me.

The question should be: What new Chinese cities will gain service to key North American gateways? All the real growth is on that side of the world.
 
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stl07
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Fri Aug 11, 2017 3:40 pm

globalcabotage wrote:
fsafsx wrote:
Indy is perfect for an Asia flight


Oh dear God, Detroit south with entitlements to every major international market nonstop.

This entitled to LHR, now NRT is getting out of hand. IND is a short drive/flight to ORD and DTW. No reason for IND to NRT.

Sure, you said Asia, but substitute ICN for NRT and the same result.

I'm sure IND ( substitute BNA, CLE, CMH, CVG, MCI, PIT, STL, etc.) can all support flights to CDG, FRA, GRU, HKG, LHR, NRT, SIN, SYD, etc.

Well PIT did land a TPAC sooooo...
Instead of typing in "mods", consider using the report function.
Love how every "travel blogger" says they will never fly AA/Ethihad again and then says it again and again on subsequent flights.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:06 pm

stl07 wrote:
globalcabotage wrote:
fsafsx wrote:
Indy is perfect for an Asia flight


Oh dear God, Detroit south with entitlements to every major international market nonstop.

This entitled to LHR, now NRT is getting out of hand. IND is a short drive/flight to ORD and DTW. No reason for IND to NRT.

Sure, you said Asia, but substitute ICN for NRT and the same result.

I'm sure IND ( substitute BNA, CLE, CMH, CVG, MCI, PIT, STL, etc.) can all support flights to CDG, FRA, GRU, HKG, LHR, NRT, SIN, SYD, etc.

Well PIT did land a TPAC sooooo...


A charter flight soooooo.....
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
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stl07
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Fri Aug 11, 2017 10:55 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
stl07 wrote:
globalcabotage wrote:

Oh dear God, Detroit south with entitlements to every major international market nonstop.

This entitled to LHR, now NRT is getting out of hand. IND is a short drive/flight to ORD and DTW. No reason for IND to NRT.

Sure, you said Asia, but substitute ICN for NRT and the same result.

I'm sure IND ( substitute BNA, CLE, CMH, CVG, MCI, PIT, STL, etc.) can all support flights to CDG, FRA, GRU, HKG, LHR, NRT, SIN, SYD, etc.

Well PIT did land a TPAC sooooo...


A charter flight soooooo.....

Well it still proved my point soooo....
Instead of typing in "mods", consider using the report function.
Love how every "travel blogger" says they will never fly AA/Ethihad again and then says it again and again on subsequent flights.
 
Pengaea
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:21 am

fsafsx wrote:
Indy is perfect for an Asia flight


You sound very confident that Indianapolis is ripe for an Asia flight. Let's disregard the comments made thus far about your post. Why do you think that Indianapolis is "perfect for an Asia flight"?

I'm interested in your reasoning. Is there a massive Asian-American population in the Indianapolis metropolitan area that I'm not aware of? Does Eli Lilly or Cummins generate enough demand for a flight to Asia? Does the auto parts industry create a large demand for flights to Asia? Do you think that the number of Asian students attending Purdue or IU or IUPUI is sufficient to sustain a non-stop flight to Asia? Are Asian tourists flocking to the modern architecture in Columbus, Indiana, or to experience Indiana's basketball heritage, or has motorsport taken off in Asia to an extent that a trip to the Brickyard is a "must see" destination?

What kind of "Asia flight" do you envision serving IND? Passenger or cargo (according to Wikipedia [sorry not sorry], there is already a cargo flight from IND to KIX)? US-based airline or Asian airline? Where in Asia do you envision this flight serving?

These are all very legitimate questions your post raises. I'd be interested in hearing your perspective.
 
SeaDoo
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:55 am

fsafsx wrote:
Indy is perfect for an Asia flight


Are you joking? IND doesn't even have Europe. Isn't YYZ the only year round scheduled flight. I think their is seasonal CUN.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Sat Aug 12, 2017 4:47 am

SeaDoo wrote:
fsafsx wrote:
Indy is perfect for an Asia flight


Are you joking? IND doesn't even have Europe. Isn't YYZ the only year round scheduled flight. I think their is seasonal CUN.


Pay him no mind...
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:06 am

ADrum23 wrote:
So all the talk right now is focused on which mid-sized city will get TATL service next (or new TATL service if they already do).

I want to now ask the question which mid-sized city will get TPAC service. Cities like AUS, RDU, BNA, MSY, CLT, etc, have shown interest in TPAC flights at one point or another. Granted, it will not be as easy as TATL service and will take longer to land, but it could be doable.

Which mid-sized city will we see direct TPAC service launched from first? And what will the planes be? Can the Boeing 787 Dreamliners reach Japan, China, etc, from the eastern United States?


Out of the ones you mentioned I think it would be CLT, I think there are some others that should also be in the mix with CLT including PHL/SLC. I might have skipped over a few larger ones, but probably next is some combination of AUS/BWI/SMF/maybe RDU, all with decent sized Asian/Chinese/or Japanese percentage of the population(VFR) + also have the business ties which is a good combination, then after that point it is impossible to predict what each market will look like...
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
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c933103
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:39 pm

How about PHL/BWI?
MinnesotaPlanes wrote:
NO-ONE IS TALKING ABOUT MSP. MSP SHOULD GET MORE TPAC. LOOK AT THE OTHER MSP TATL/TPAC FORUM. (sorry for the all caps, just really passionate about MSP getting excluded from this conversation.

I thought MSP already have TPAC flight to TYO
izbtmnhd wrote:
With TPAC you folks are thinking backwards, to me.

The question should be: What new Chinese cities will gain service to key North American gateways? All the real growth is on that side of the world.

Not happening because of bilateral
2travel2know2 wrote:
jbpdx wrote:
YVR and SEA already have multiple flights to all those cities. Forget ANC, too few people; SNA, inadequate runway; and SMF, too close to Bay Area. Although there's talk of CI to ONT, I doubt it.
RIght about YVR, SEA; and SNA.
However Asian tourists would love seasonal summer flights to ANC.
Wouldn't rule out some Asian hub - SMF someday, as "it's too close to SFO" was used against Asia-SJC flights a while ago and SJC now does have Asian non-stops.

It seems to me that most charter flights from Asia to Alaska occure during winter
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ADrum23
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:01 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
So all the talk right now is focused on which mid-sized city will get TATL service next (or new TATL service if they already do).

I want to now ask the question which mid-sized city will get TPAC service. Cities like AUS, RDU, BNA, MSY, CLT, etc, have shown interest in TPAC flights at one point or another. Granted, it will not be as easy as TATL service and will take longer to land, but it could be doable.

Which mid-sized city will we see direct TPAC service launched from first? And what will the planes be? Can the Boeing 787 Dreamliners reach Japan, China, etc, from the eastern United States?


Out of the ones you mentioned I think it would be CLT, I think there are some others that should also be in the mix with CLT including PHL/SLC. I might have skipped over a few larger ones, but probably next is some combination of AUS/BWI/SMF/maybe RDU, all with decent sized Asian/Chinese/or Japanese percentage of the population(VFR) + also have the business ties which is a good combination, then after that point it is impossible to predict what each market will look like...


Agreed about CLT, PHL and SLC, simply because of their hub status. Maybe I should have clarified this and asked which non-hub mid-sized city will be the first to get TPAC service? I personally think it will be AUS, but I don't know for sure the numbers about how much business travelers go to Asia from there. RDU and BNA both make decent cases as well, but I think it will be a while for both (mid-2020's). MSY seems to be more European and Caribbean focused, so I doubt we will see TPAC service there for a long time.
 
PDX757
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:27 pm

jubguy3 wrote:
I think SLC will see TPAC service sooner than later - our new airport is under construction (completion of the first phase in 2020, should be able to handle much more widebody traffic), DL announced a JV with KE, SLC's AMS / CDG flights have been performing very well, and the LHR flight has been good. SLC sees slightly more traffic to Asia because of the tech industry (1/7th of the flash memory produced in the world is produced in Lehi, UT) and SLC is a popular skiing destination / hub to the mountain west for SkyTeam. Whether the economics exist is unknown by me but it seems like the conditions for a TPAC flight are in SLC's favor.

If we see a flight on either KE or DL to ICN, I would imagine that it would have to either use a DL A350 (which I don't see delta giving up from DTW) or one of KE's 787-9 (though KE only has 3 in service and 7 orders left) - SLC is hot and high and the previous NRT flight we saw immediately after the NW merger was cancelled because DL was taking too many restrictions on payload with the aircraft they were using at the time, and I don't think the demand was quite there. Its unfortunate that DL cancelled their 787 order because I think that would have put SLC in a position to see more transoceanic traffic - a lot of Delta's fleet are either too large or take too many payload restrictions because SLC is hot and high.


I seem to recall SLC-NRT was launched shortly after CDG and was only around for a year or so. Not sure if that was due to loads or difficulty using the 767 on the route due to hot and high conditions. I recall the CDG flight needing tech stops shortly after its inauguration; not sure what would be different now.
The wasatch front has grown a lot economically since the NRT flight ran. Maybe ICN would be a better connecting point with the JV, good feed on both ends would probably keep the route alive.
 
jubguy3
Posts: 514
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:54 pm

PDX757 wrote:
jubguy3 wrote:
I think SLC will see TPAC service sooner than later - our new airport is under construction (completion of the first phase in 2020, should be able to handle much more widebody traffic), DL announced a JV with KE, SLC's AMS / CDG flights have been performing very well, and the LHR flight has been good. SLC sees slightly more traffic to Asia because of the tech industry (1/7th of the flash memory produced in the world is produced in Lehi, UT) and SLC is a popular skiing destination / hub to the mountain west for SkyTeam. Whether the economics exist is unknown by me but it seems like the conditions for a TPAC flight are in SLC's favor.

If we see a flight on either KE or DL to ICN, I would imagine that it would have to either use a DL A350 (which I don't see delta giving up from DTW) or one of KE's 787-9 (though KE only has 3 in service and 7 orders left) - SLC is hot and high and the previous NRT flight we saw immediately after the NW merger was cancelled because DL was taking too many restrictions on payload with the aircraft they were using at the time, and I don't think the demand was quite there. Its unfortunate that DL cancelled their 787 order because I think that would have put SLC in a position to see more transoceanic traffic - a lot of Delta's fleet are either too large or take too many payload restrictions because SLC is hot and high.


I seem to recall SLC-NRT was launched shortly after CDG and was only around for a year or so. Not sure if that was due to loads or difficulty using the 767 on the route due to hot and high conditions. I recall the CDG flight needing tech stops shortly after its inauguration; not sure what would be different now.
The wasatch front has grown a lot economically since the NRT flight ran. Maybe ICN would be a better connecting point with the JV, good feed on both ends would probably keep the route alive.



I'm pretty sure the NRT flight was a relic of the Northwest merger - Delta couldn't make it work. It was cut due to a combination of load factors and low demand. I think the economics of a TPAC flight have definitely changed since then and an ICN flight will work if the right AC is used
 
PDX757
Posts: 207
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Sun Aug 13, 2017 7:32 pm

jubguy3 wrote:
PDX757 wrote:
jubguy3 wrote:
I think SLC will see TPAC service sooner than later - our new airport is under construction (completion of the first phase in 2020, should be able to handle much more widebody traffic), DL announced a JV with KE, SLC's AMS / CDG flights have been performing very well, and the LHR flight has been good. SLC sees slightly more traffic to Asia because of the tech industry (1/7th of the flash memory produced in the world is produced in Lehi, UT) and SLC is a popular skiing destination / hub to the mountain west for SkyTeam. Whether the economics exist is unknown by me but it seems like the conditions for a TPAC flight are in SLC's favor.

If we see a flight on either KE or DL to ICN, I would imagine that it would have to either use a DL A350 (which I don't see delta giving up from DTW) or one of KE's 787-9 (though KE only has 3 in service and 7 orders left) - SLC is hot and high and the previous NRT flight we saw immediately after the NW merger was cancelled because DL was taking too many restrictions on payload with the aircraft they were using at the time, and I don't think the demand was quite there. Its unfortunate that DL cancelled their 787 order because I think that would have put SLC in a position to see more transoceanic traffic - a lot of Delta's fleet are either too large or take too many payload restrictions because SLC is hot and high.


I seem to recall SLC-NRT was launched shortly after CDG and was only around for a year or so. Not sure if that was due to loads or difficulty using the 767 on the route due to hot and high conditions. I recall the CDG flight needing tech stops shortly after its inauguration; not sure what would be different now.
The wasatch front has grown a lot economically since the NRT flight ran. Maybe ICN would be a better connecting point with the JV, good feed on both ends would probably keep the route alive.



I'm pretty sure the NRT flight was a relic of the Northwest merger - Delta couldn't make it work. It was cut due to a combination of load factors and low demand. I think the economics of a TPAC flight have definitely changed since then and an ICN flight will work if the right AC is used


IIRC the flight was announced a few months after the merger. I'm pretty sure it started with a 333 and then went to 332 and seasonal before being dropped. A KE 332 may be the right aircraft for the job. I wonder if the buildup of SEA to Asia has kept SLC from seeing any nonstops.
 
jubguy3
Posts: 514
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Sun Aug 13, 2017 7:46 pm

PDX757 wrote:
jubguy3 wrote:
PDX757 wrote:

I seem to recall SLC-NRT was launched shortly after CDG and was only around for a year or so. Not sure if that was due to loads or difficulty using the 767 on the route due to hot and high conditions. I recall the CDG flight needing tech stops shortly after its inauguration; not sure what would be different now.
The wasatch front has grown a lot economically since the NRT flight ran. Maybe ICN would be a better connecting point with the JV, good feed on both ends would probably keep the route alive.



I'm pretty sure the NRT flight was a relic of the Northwest merger - Delta couldn't make it work. It was cut due to a combination of load factors and low demand. I think the economics of a TPAC flight have definitely changed since then and an ICN flight will work if the right AC is used


IIRC the flight was announced a few months after the merger. I'm pretty sure it started with a 333 and then went to 332 and seasonal before being dropped. A KE 332 may be the right aircraft for the job. I wonder if the buildup of SEA to Asia has kept SLC from seeing any nonstops.


If its the same aircraft, wouldn't it have load restrictions going west? That's part of why the NRT flight wasn't successful, too many seats had to be blocked off to meet weight limits.

I think the SEA buildup has potentially stopped SLC from seeing a TPAC flight but I think the JV definitely makes the situation more favorable for SLC. SLC is still a very profitable hub for DL and I know DL has been having troubles with filling up flights in SEA (seeing as that its not a mature market yet). A KE flight from SLC - ICN would be a great way to utilize the KE/DL joint venture seeing as that both ends of the flight have great connecting opportunities for DL and KE and its currently an unserved market. The terminal redevelopment program at SLC will also allow SLC to handle larger AC / more international arrivals. That's all the way off until 2020 but I think until then that we will see at least one TPAC flight and ICN seems the most likely at this point.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Sun Aug 13, 2017 8:28 pm

I'm surprised that MIA is only mention once in the whole thread :stirthepot:

As for "new" destination, I'll say PHL and AUS, follow by the like of BNA and RDU and maybe SMF. SMF do suffered from the fact that it's not a big market while being close enough to Bay Area, however. Someone did mention about SJC, but Silicon Valley itself has a ton more TPAC demand compare to SMF.

I'm interested in your reasoning. Is there a massive Asian-American population in the Indianapolis metropolitan area that I'm not aware of? Does Eli Lilly or Cummins generate enough demand for a flight to Asia? Does the auto parts industry create a large demand for flights to Asia? Do you think that the number of Asian students attending Purdue or IU or IUPUI is sufficient to sustain a non-stop flight to Asia? Are Asian tourists flocking to the modern architecture in Columbus, Indiana, or to experience Indiana's basketball heritage, or has motorsport taken off in Asia to an extent that a trip to the Brickyard is a "must see" destination?


Looking at County-by-County map, Asian-American population (by Percentage) in Indiana (I can only find 2013 data, but I don't think it changed that much).
1. Tippecanoe County (6.8%) - Purdue
2. Monroe County (6.0%) - IU
3. Hamilton County (5.4%) - Indy rich(er) suburban county
4. Bartholomew County (5.0%) - Cummins most likely
5. Allen County (3.2%) - It's actually mainly of Burmese refugee population near Fort Wayne.

In another word, I would say most of the Asian-American population are only here b/c of IU/Purdue (I live in Indiana myself, and it's mostly accurate AFAIK). For Purdue, it's quicker to drive straight up 65 to catch a flight out of O'hare rather than drive down to Indy, catch a connection flight to from there (Most likely to Chicago), then connect. Same apply to, let say, St Joseph County (South Bend, aka Notre Dame).

P.S. And seriously, 99.9% of the people over in China/Japan/S. Korea don't even know where Indiana is.
 
CV880
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Sun Aug 13, 2017 8:55 pm

Case for One World from CLT or PHL Is the Feed vs little feed at other cities discussed except SLC where ICN makes a more sensible destination for Asia.
 
B752OS
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Sun Aug 13, 2017 9:18 pm

Since we're talking about mid-sized cities, PHL and MIA are not part of the conversation given they're major cities and major metro areas.
 
jubguy3
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Sun Aug 13, 2017 9:22 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
I'm surprised that MIA is only mention once in the whole thread :stirthepot:

As for "new" destination, I'll say PHL and AUS, follow by the like of BNA and RDU and maybe SMF. SMF do suffered from the fact that it's not a big market while being close enough to Bay Area, however. Someone did mention about SJC, but Silicon Valley itself has a ton more TPAC demand compare to SMF.


MIA doesn't have a TPAC flight???

BNA just got its first TATL flight and RDU has two... out of the two, I would say RDU is more likely. That being said - I don't want to be the person who comes in here and clamors only for their own city but its easy to connect through ATL, DTW, DFW, etc for those two cities, and neither of them present much connecting potential seeing as that BNA is a hub for southwest and RDU's connections would be much better served by other delta hubs. I don't really see BNA or RDU getting any TPAC flights soon. PHL is prime for a TPAC flight but it would probably only support O/D traffic due to its proximity to other metropolitan areas and AUS isn't really a big enough draw for O/D TPAC traffic.

SMF is too close to other high traffic TPAC markets and SJC already has a ton of TPAC (shanghai, tokyo, beijing on 3 different foreign carriers).

I see SLC, MSP, and CLT as being more likely simply because TPAC flights are harder to support with O/D only. SLC has a tourism draw with skiing and the national parks but also supports delta onward connections. That's part of why I see SLC as a likely addition to KE or DL's TPAC network... that being said, its easy to analyze your home city with rose colored glasses. SLC doesn't have a very large Asian population and I don't know how well known SLC's skiing / resorts are known in Asian markets. SLC also suffers badly from the hot / high restrictions. The only aircraft I think is small but capable enough for the route is the 787, and DL cancelled their order. If I recall correctly all variants of the A330 suffer from load restrictions going west in SLC, as does the 767. A 777, and likewise probably the A350 are too big for the demand present. The only operator I see being able to handle SLC's restrictions is KE on the 787, and they only have 3 currently and 7 on order. Like always, SLC's transpacific capacity is cannibalized by SEA and MSP's traffic is cannibalized by DTW. Its hard to say at this point but I think over the coming months we will see the growing power of the DL / KE JV. I suppose I should throw in PHX before someone has a fit...
 
Wingtips56
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Sun Aug 13, 2017 11:43 pm

The Sacramento area has a growing number of Asian companies already present and more coming, plus a significant joint medical project between Chinese interests and nearby UC Davis in development. Some would generate traffic to Tokyo and some to various points in China, but I think not to any one place to justify a SMF-NRT/PEK/PVG non-stop. A milk run maybe, but that's not happening. I doubt there are many commuting Kikkoman soy sauce brewers in Folsom to fill SMF-NRT, for example.
But eventually (long term), I do see SMF-Asia happening, likely before SMF-Europe unless IcelandAir or Norwegian want to pioneer another Northern California foothold. SMF-ICN or, -TPE maybe as a traffic.central connecting point, but low on O/D .
Worked for WestAir, Apollo Airways, Desert Pacific, Western, AirCal and American Airlines (Retired). Flight Memory: 181 airports, 92 airlines, 78 a/c types, 403 routes, 58 countries (by air), 6 continents. 1,119,414 passenger miles.

Home airport : CEC
 
kavok
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Mon Aug 14, 2017 12:34 am

It is all supply and demand.

Let's use BNA as an example. And let's be honest, there are not pax sitting in BNA thinking "If BNA had a direct flight to Asia, I'd go, but because I have to connect in DTW or ORD I am not making the trip". Basically, the supply of TPAC pax is very limited, and measurable demand is not created just because a new route begins.

The point is, if BNA (for example) got a direct TPAC flight, it would come at the expense of pax connecting in DTW or ORD. The problem with that is, for most Asian routes ORD or DTW has at most 2x daily, with most routes 1x daily. Both ORD and DTW are much bigger markets. So it is going to make much more business sense to route the few TPAC pax from BNA via ORD/DTW (regardlesswhich airline) then run BNA directy.

It is not like TATL where BNA-LHR gets added to the market and say ORD-LHR has to go from 9 daily to 8 daily to adjust to market demands. When ORD and DTW only have 1 or 2 TPAC daily to a given city to begin with, the market is not big enough to add TPAC to midsize markets. That is the real issue.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Mon Aug 14, 2017 12:57 am

Out of the markets mentioned on this thread without TPAC service BWI, SMF, AUS, RDU, IND, PIT, BNA, MSY, CLT, SLC, PHL, MIA I combined Developed Asia-Pacific and Developing Asia-Pacific to find who had the most total pax to and from Asia.

2011 passengers both ways combined to Asia
SMF: 30,813 (Loses pax to Bay Area)
BNA: 70,340
MSY: 82,751
BWI: 86,300 (Loses pax to IAD)
PIT: 91,169
IND: 97,994
CLT: 102,055 (Connection opportunities)
AUS: 121,296 (Could draw from SAT)
SLC: 134,002 (Connection opportunities)
RDU: 134,350 (Some connection opportunities)
PHL: 144,449 (Connection opportunities)
MIA: 330,431 (Connection opportunities)
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
kavok
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Mon Aug 14, 2017 1:53 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Out of the markets mentioned on this thread without TPAC service BWI, SMF, AUS, RDU, IND, PIT, BNA, MSY, CLT, SLC, PHL, MIA I combined Developed Asia-Pacific and Developing Asia-Pacific to find who had the most total pax to and from Asia.

2011 passengers both ways combined to Asia
SMF: 30,813 (Loses pax to Bay Area)
BNA: 70,340
MSY: 82,751
BWI: 86,300 (Loses pax to IAD)
PIT: 91,169
IND: 97,994
CLT: 102,055 (Connection opportunities)
AUS: 121,296 (Could draw from SAT)
SLC: 134,002 (Connection opportunities)
RDU: 134,350 (Some connection opportunities)
PHL: 144,449 (Connection opportunities)
MIA: 330,431 (Connection opportunities)


Good Data, thanks for sharing. Taking those numbers, and converting to PDEW for the largest markets on the list yields the following:

PDEW:
IND: 134
CLT: 140
AUS: 166
SLC: 184
RDU: 184
PHL: 198
MIA: 453

So basically, only MIA could fill a 787 with a 250 seat capacity from its own O-D alone. Yes, many of these airports have the ability to make up the difference with connections, but doing so comes at the expense of existing Asia flights. And of course this is also ignoring that these pax are heading to multiple Asian destinations.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:14 am

kavok wrote:
Good Data, thanks for sharing. Taking those numbers, and converting to PDEW for the largest markets on the list yields the following:

PDEW:
IND: 134
CLT: 140
AUS: 166
SLC: 184
RDU: 184
PHL: 198
MIA: 453

So basically, only MIA could fill a 787 with a 250 seat capacity from its own O-D alone. Yes, many of these airports have the ability to make up the difference with connections, but doing so comes at the expense of existing Asia flights. And of course this is also ignoring that these pax are heading to multiple Asian destinations.


Thanks for converting to PDEW

Taking into account growth, I think RDU/SLC might have caught up to PHL by now, but I still have: 1.MIA 2.PHL 3.CLT 4.SLC then a while before 5.RDU 6.AUS.

Although, I don't know how willing the airlines would be to add at the expense of existing flights.
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
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LAX772LR
Posts: 13462
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Mon Aug 14, 2017 7:00 am

ADrum23 wrote:
MSY seems to be more European and Caribbean focused

Based on what?

They're already laying the groundwork on what they hope will eventually lead to Asian service in the longrun, beginning with policies to increase the Asian traffic that already connects between IAH and MSY (beyond just air), and building from there. It started even before securing LHR.

"Michael Hecht, president and CEO of Greater New Orleans Inc., an economic development group that helped lure the flight.

Now, who may be calling next? Hecht said Asia is the obvious next place to look . . . we do know that there's a cultural affinity for New Orleans in Asia that could potentially make it attractive

http://www.theadvocate.com/new_orleans/ ... f5709.html


Local leaders are now laying the groundwork for what is likely the city's biggest tourism play yet -- China.

Perry said it will be years before New Orleans moves the needle on Chinese travel. Local infrastructure gaps range from the major work, such as designing travel packages that appeal specifically to Chinese travelers, to smaller changes, such as making sure local restaurants have menus in Mandarin on hand.

Perry said a lot of legwork is still needed to make sure New Orleans is included in Chinese group travel itineraries and packages.

The availability of international flights into New Orleans is also a hurdle.

When it comes to China, however, Houston is the likely gateway to New Orleans for Chinese travelers for the time being.

"Is it a longer-term play? Sure it is," Perry said. "But the market is so gigantic that even with smaller market penetration there is a huge number."

http://www.nola.com/business/index.ssf/ ... _inte.html
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: TPAC service to mid-sized markets

Mon Aug 14, 2017 7:05 am

Midwestindy wrote:
2011 passengers both ways combined to Asia
SMF: 30,813 (Loses pax to Bay Area)
BNA: 70,340
MSY: 82,751
BWI: 86,300 (Loses pax to IAD)
PIT: 91,169
IND: 97,994
CLT: 102,055 (Connection opportunities)
AUS: 121,296 (Could draw from SAT)
SLC: 134,002 (Connection opportunities)
RDU: 134,350 (Some connection opportunities)
PHL: 144,449 (Connection opportunities)
MIA: 330,431 (Connection opportunities)

I'm guessing that these are from the Brookings report... but what is being defined as "Asia?"

Do these markets include/exclude the Subcontinent? Middle East? Central Asia?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil

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