WN schedule extension 8/28/17

SteveXC500 · Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:12 pm

In a little over two weeks, Southwest will publish its schedule for April and May. What might they add/subtract this round?
Spring break seasonal flights will drop off for sure.

Guesses or actual rumors?

jco613 · Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:42 pm

My guess is this will be a typical quiet expansion. Really covers a dead time heading into Summer travel. That said, I expect to continue connecting dots and maybe some new international destinations from FLL and maybe there will be some BNA expansion (BNA-BDL please!!!) but this is just speculation off of talk on other threads.

SteveXC500 · Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:47 pm

Probably right. I like the speculation and guessing side of things. Will be interesting to see the dots continue to connect.

Will MSP-LAS be made permanent?

Midwestindy · Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:48 pm

Isn't WN getting 4 aircraft earlier than expected later this year? Which could possibly mean more new routes then one would expect.

msycajun · Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:53 pm

With April and May being peak months for MSY, I am hoping that WN finds the planes to make some of our once weekly routes daily: RDU, PIT, IND, and CMH. Will be interesting to see if there is any response to F9's new MSY-SAT/AUS routes, which are typically high yielding for WN.

flymco753 · Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:57 pm

DTW-MCO/TPA will most likely run until the middle part of this new update before leaving for the winter.

dbo861 · Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:59 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Isn't WN getting 4 aircraft earlier than expected later this year? Which could possibly mean more new routes then one would expect.

This is the first I've heard of this. If true, that's awesome. It's nice when WN surprises us with new routes between schedule releases.

Midwestindy · Sat Aug 12, 2017 4:09 pm

dbo861 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Isn't WN getting 4 aircraft earlier than expected later this year? Which could possibly mean more new routes then one would expect.

This is the first I've heard of this. If true, that's awesome. It's nice when WN surprises us with new routes between schedule releases.

http://www.southwestairlinesinvestorrel ... script.pdf

"Turning to our order book, we made just some tweaks to the order book. And in short, we added four pre-owned 700s."

southwest1675 · Sat Aug 12, 2017 4:52 pm

Maybe this will be the day we finally see BNA-PDX.

ADrum23 · Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:03 pm

Four things I'd like to see WN launch in this latest update

1. BNA-PDX (though I highly doubt they will). Someone needs to launch BNA-PDX soon.

2. Upgrade BNA-SEA to year-round

3. Some new international destinations from places other than HOU or FLL

4. Expanded service at CVG

I'd also like to them start service to HNL, but I know that is not happening until 2019 at the absolute earliest.

SANFan · Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:06 pm

msycajun wrote:
With April and May being peak months for MSY, I am hoping that WN finds the planes to make some of our once weekly routes daily: RDU, PIT, IND, and CMH. Will be interesting to see if there is any response to F9's new MSY-SAT/AUS routes, which are typically high yielding for WN.

I have no idea on the performance (including connections) of WN's current single daily r/t between NOLA and SAN but the DOT O&D traffic for 2016 averaged ~150 PDEW, which could be enough for a second r/t in the market. I've been watching this market for a while and if WN doesn't double up in it, or perhaps even if they do, I wouldn't be surprised to see someone else enter the city-pair: AS, F9, or NK would seem like the most logical. (I favor AAG but any of them could do it first!) I'm keeping an eye on this one.

Also, regarding this extension, this time period should be nothing major; that will come in the following schedule release which should include June.

One thing I'm curious about however is exactly when WN might re-start their new "seasonal" SAN-flights: GEG, IND, EWR and MKE. None of these is really a seasonal market and there was talk that all of these new routes would become year-round/permanent as soon as the fleet situation stabilized -- undoubtedly in 2018. Perhaps that will happen with at least some of these routes, next April/May...

bb

dc10lover · Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:07 pm

Are there any airports Southwest serves that Southwest is gaining more Gates like at Denver? The Gates in Spokane are not fully utilized. Since AA has non - stop to DFW, now people in Spokane would love to have non - stop service to Houston but I think Hobby is maxed out so no flights to Spokane (yet)

AAvgeek744 · Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:11 pm

dc10lover wrote:
Are there any airports Southwest serves that Southwest is gaining more Gates like at Denver? The Gates in Spokane are not fully utilized. Since AA has non - stop to DFW, now people in Spokane would love to have non - stop service to Houston but I think Hobby is maxed out so no flights to Spokane (yet)

Even if HOU was not maxed out, I can think of quite a few cities that would get service before GEG,

ADrum23 · Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:16 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
Maybe this will be the day we finally see BNA-PDX.

Hopefully, but I doubt it will happen. I have a feeling BNA may have to wait until whenever AS feels like starting that route

SANFan · Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:21 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
things I'd like to see WN launch in this latest update

1. BNA-PDX (though I highly doubt they will). Someone needs to launch BNA-PDX soon.

I keep seeing this desire on multiple threads and just decided to look up the numbers.

The DOT O&D numbers (Table 6) for 2016 averaged 102 PDEW; the high was, of course, during the summer, with 117 PDEW. The low (Q1) was 69 PDEW...

I'm sorry but despite your insistence that "someone needs to launch BNA-PDX soon", I wouldn't hold my breath, not with those numbers. Especially not on WN. Long shot might be a summer-only route -- hasn't that already been done? AS could maybe make it work due to connecting pax over PDX , or even over BNA, but IMO those numbers just don't make a very optimistic case. We'll see.

bb

dc10lover · Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:23 pm

Somehow, I would love to see a lot more Seattle to California service. SEA - ONT might be a good route.

ADrum23 · Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:27 pm

SANFan wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
things I'd like to see WN launch in this latest update

1. BNA-PDX (though I highly doubt they will). Someone needs to launch BNA-PDX soon.

I keep seeing this desire on multiple threads and just decided to look up the numbers.

The DOT O&D numbers (Table 6) for 2016 averaged 102 PDEW; the high was, of course, during the summer, with 117 PDEW. The low (Q1) was 69 PDEW...

I'm sorry but despite your insistence that "someone needs to launch BNA-PDX soon", I wouldn't hold my breath, not with those numbers. Especially not on WN. Long shot might be a summer-only route -- hasn't that already been done? AS could maybe make it work due to connecting pax over PDX , or even over BNA, but IMO those numbers just don't make a very optimistic case. We'll see.

bb

I should have clarified that even if it was just summer seasonal, I'd be ok with that. I don't believe BNA-PDX has ever existed.

msycajun · Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:28 pm

SANFan wrote:
msycajun wrote:
With April and May being peak months for MSY, I am hoping that WN finds the planes to make some of our once weekly routes daily: RDU, PIT, IND, and CMH. Will be interesting to see if there is any response to F9's new MSY-SAT/AUS routes, which are typically high yielding for WN.

I have no idea on the performance (including connections) of WN's current single daily r/t between NOLA and SAN but the DOT O&D traffic for 2016 averaged ~150 PDEW, which could be enough for a second r/t in the market. I've been watching this market for a while and if WN doesn't double up in it, or perhaps even if they do, I wouldn't be surprised to see someone else enter the city-pair: AS, F9, or NK would seem like the most logical. (I favor AAG but any of them could do it first!) I'm keeping an eye on this one.
bb

I have a feeling we'll see some ULCC competition on this route soon enough. F9 will be running daily direct MSY-SAN service with stops in SAT and AUS on alternating days and NK has a growing network as MSY that would help fill seats. I think it is a good candidate for the 738 which is about all I'd expect from WN for now as I think they are content to route a portion of the traffic through Texas and the last time I flew to SAN on WN, the terminal was packed. Maybe an extra flight on Sat or Sun which they do with many other MSY routes.

dc10lover · Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:28 pm

See the other thread. GEG - SAN is now year round.

SANFan · Sat Aug 12, 2017 6:21 pm

dc10lover wrote:
See the other thread. GEG - SAN is now year round.

Ummm, what other thread please...? I've seen nothing regarding this topic but thank you for the update...

bb

STL1129 · Sat Aug 12, 2017 6:56 pm

dc10lover wrote:
Are there any airports Southwest serves that Southwest is gaining more Gates like at Denver?

Southwest recently expanded into the first of 4 additional gates recently reopened in STL's old Concourse D; may enable STL to become a top 10 hub for WS. If they fill those gates up, they can keep on reopening additional D gates, though it could become an excessively long walk between the farthest gates.

jplatts · Sat Aug 12, 2017 7:50 pm

AAvgeek744 wrote:
dc10lover wrote:
Are there any airports Southwest serves that Southwest is gaining more Gates like at Denver? The Gates in Spokane are not fully utilized. Since AA has non - stop to DFW, now people in Spokane would love to have non - stop service to Houston but I think Hobby is maxed out so no flights to Spokane (yet)

Even if HOU was not maxed out, I can think of quite a few cities that would get service before GEG,

Southwest currently only does 153 domestic departures and 11 international departures out of HOU, and Southwest does has room to do additional domestic flights out of HOU since Southwest has access to 18 gates in the central concourse at HOU and 5 gates in the international terminal at HOU. Southwest does fewer flights per gate per day out of HOU than it does out of DAL or LAX, and Southwest does have room to add at least 30 additional domestic departures a day out of HOU.

SteveXC500 · Sat Aug 12, 2017 7:53 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
Four things I'd like to see WN launch in this latest update

1. BNA-PDX (though I highly doubt they will). Someone needs to launch BNA-PDX soon.

2. Upgrade BNA-SEA to year-round

3. Some new international destinations from places other than HOU or FLL

4. Expanded service at CVG

I'd also like to them start service to HNL, but I know that is not happening until 2019 at the absolute earliest.

Definitely agree with #3. Especially when not every airport, like MSP, has service to HOU.

For MSP, WN is at roughly 24 daily departures out of four gates. Could they add a few more during off peak times? Between 10:00-12:30 pm, T2 is practically empty.

AAvgeek744 · Sat Aug 12, 2017 7:59 pm

SteveXC500 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
Four things I'd like to see WN launch in this latest update

1. BNA-PDX (though I highly doubt they will). Someone needs to launch BNA-PDX soon.

2. Upgrade BNA-SEA to year-round

3. Some new international destinations from places other than HOU or FLL

4. Expanded service at CVG

I'd also like to them start service to HNL, but I know that is not happening until 2019 at the absolute earliest.

Definitely agree with #3. Especially when not every airport, like MSP, has service to HOU.

For MSP, WN is at roughly 24 daily departures out of four gates. Could they add a few more during off peak times? Between 10:00-12:30 pm, T2 is practically empty.

I still think AS does PDX-BNA. Not sure, but I don't know if an E75 has the legs for it. If it does, that would be a good starter aircraft for the service. Or borrow a 319 from VX, since they are starting BNA-SFO this fall.

Cvgspotter15 · Sat Aug 12, 2017 7:59 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
Four things I'd like to see WN launch in this latest update

1. BNA-PDX (though I highly doubt they will). Someone needs to launch BNA-PDX soon.

2. Upgrade BNA-SEA to year-round

3. Some new international destinations from places other than HOU or FLL

4. Expanded service at CVG

I'd also like to them start service to HNL, but I know that is not happening until 2019 at the absolute earliest.

I would love to see them expand at CVG, but I still don't think they are doing too great.

AAvgeek744 · Sat Aug 12, 2017 8:01 pm

jplatts wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:
dc10lover wrote:
Are there any airports Southwest serves that Southwest is gaining more Gates like at Denver? The Gates in Spokane are not fully utilized. Since AA has non - stop to DFW, now people in Spokane would love to have non - stop service to Houston but I think Hobby is maxed out so no flights to Spokane (yet)

Even if HOU was not maxed out, I can think of quite a few cities that would get service before GEG,

Southwest currently only does 153 domestic departures and 11 international departures out of HOU, and Southwest does has room to do additional domestic flights out of HOU since Southwest has access to 18 gates in the central concourse at HOU and 5 gates in the international terminal at HOU. Southwest does fewer flights per gate per day out of HOU than it does out of DAL or LAX, and Southwest does have room to add at least 30 additional domestic departures a day out of HOU.

Thanks, I rarely use HOU. Even with say 30 more flights a day, I don't see GEG getting one. There are still larger markets in their system without flights to HOU.

cvgComair · Sat Aug 12, 2017 8:09 pm

Cvgspotter15 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
Four things I'd like to see WN launch in this latest update

1. BNA-PDX (though I highly doubt they will). Someone needs to launch BNA-PDX soon.

2. Upgrade BNA-SEA to year-round

3. Some new international destinations from places other than HOU or FLL

4. Expanded service at CVG

I'd also like to them start service to HNL, but I know that is not happening until 2019 at the absolute earliest.

I would love to see them expand at CVG, but I still don't think they are doing too great.

I wonder if WN would consider dropping frequency on MDW and BWI, in exchange for another route or two. Frankly, I think that is their problem, trying to sell passengers 1-stop itineraries to Florida when DL/G4/F9 operate many direct flights for the same price or even cheaper is not going to work.

ADrum23 · Sat Aug 12, 2017 8:17 pm

AAvgeek744 wrote:
SteveXC500 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
Four things I'd like to see WN launch in this latest update

1. BNA-PDX (though I highly doubt they will). Someone needs to launch BNA-PDX soon.

2. Upgrade BNA-SEA to year-round

3. Some new international destinations from places other than HOU or FLL

4. Expanded service at CVG

I'd also like to them start service to HNL, but I know that is not happening until 2019 at the absolute earliest.

Definitely agree with #3. Especially when not every airport, like MSP, has service to HOU.

For MSP, WN is at roughly 24 daily departures out of four gates. Could they add a few more during off peak times? Between 10:00-12:30 pm, T2 is practically empty.

I still think AS does PDX-BNA. Not sure, but I don't know if an E75 has the legs for it. If it does, that would be a good starter aircraft for the service. Or borrow a 319 from VX, since they are starting BNA-SFO this fall.

Yeah, I think AS starts BNA-PDX before WN does, though I think any flight would have to be a mainline, as it may be just outside the range of their Horizon/Skywest fleet.

ADrum23 · Sat Aug 12, 2017 8:21 pm

cvgComair wrote:
Cvgspotter15 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
Four things I'd like to see WN launch in this latest update

1. BNA-PDX (though I highly doubt they will). Someone needs to launch BNA-PDX soon.

2. Upgrade BNA-SEA to year-round

3. Some new international destinations from places other than HOU or FLL

4. Expanded service at CVG

I'd also like to them start service to HNL, but I know that is not happening until 2019 at the absolute earliest.

I would love to see them expand at CVG, but I still don't think they are doing too great.

I wonder if WN would consider dropping frequency on MDW and BWI, in exchange for another route or two. Frankly, I think that is their problem, trying to sell passengers 1-stop itineraries to Florida when DL/G4/F9 operate many direct flights for the same price or even cheaper is not going to work.

That would be nice. I'd like to see WN start service from CVG to DEN, LGA and MCO to better compete with DL.

jplatts · Sat Aug 12, 2017 9:18 pm

dc10lover wrote:
Are there any airports Southwest serves that Southwest is gaining more Gates like at Denver?

Even though Southwest already has nonstop service from DEN to most of the domestic destinations that it would be serving nonstop from DEN, there are at least 7 additional destinations in the contiguous U.S. that currently have Southwest service, that do not currently have nonstop service out of DEN on Southwest, and that Southwest could go to nonstop from DEN, including Buffalo, Charlotte, Cincinnati, El Paso, Memphis, Richmond, and Wichita. If Southwest is planning on undergoing a major expansion at Denver, I could definitely see Southwest adding nonstop service at least CVG, ELP, MEM, and ICT from DEN.

Jshank83 · Sat Aug 12, 2017 9:18 pm

cvgComair wrote:
Cvgspotter15 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
Four things I'd like to see WN launch in this latest update

1. BNA-PDX (though I highly doubt they will). Someone needs to launch BNA-PDX soon.

2. Upgrade BNA-SEA to year-round

3. Some new international destinations from places other than HOU or FLL

4. Expanded service at CVG

I'd also like to them start service to HNL, but I know that is not happening until 2019 at the absolute earliest.

I would love to see them expand at CVG, but I still don't think they are doing too great.

I wonder if WN would consider dropping frequency on MDW and BWI, in exchange for another route or two. Frankly, I think that is their problem, trying to sell passengers 1-stop itineraries to Florida when DL/G4/F9 operate many direct flights for the same price or even cheaper is not going to work.

I thought this would have happened by now. 5x to MDW is probably more than they need. Move 2 of them elsewhere and see what happens.

jbpdx · Sat Aug 12, 2017 9:33 pm

AAvgeek744 wrote:

I still think AS does PDX-BNA. Not sure, but I don't know if an E75 has the legs for it. If it does, that would be a good starter aircraft for the service. Or borrow a 319 from VX, since they are starting BNA-SFO this fall.

E175 range is 1,800nm, BNA is 1,715nm, but I don't think they'd go for that. I'm guessing Alaska will leave this route to Southwest.

Cubsrule · Sat Aug 12, 2017 9:48 pm

SANFan wrote:
msycajun wrote:
With April and May being peak months for MSY, I am hoping that WN finds the planes to make some of our once weekly routes daily: RDU, PIT, IND, and CMH. Will be interesting to see if there is any response to F9's new MSY-SAT/AUS routes, which are typically high yielding for WN.

I have no idea on the performance (including connections) of WN's current single daily r/t between NOLA and SAN but the DOT O&D traffic for 2016 averaged ~150 PDEW, which could be enough for a second r/t in the market. I've been watching this market for a while and if WN doesn't double up in it, or perhaps even if they do, I wouldn't be surprised to see someone else enter the city-pair: AS, F9, or NK would seem like the most logical. (I favor AAG but any of them could do it first!) I'm keeping an eye on this one.

Also, regarding this extension, this time period should be nothing major; that will come in the following schedule release which should include June.

One thing I'm curious about however is exactly when WN might re-start their new "seasonal" SAN-flights: GEG, IND, EWR and MKE. None of these is really a seasonal market and there was talk that all of these new routes would become year-round/permanent as soon as the fleet situation stabilized -- undoubtedly in 2018. Perhaps that will happen with at least some of these routes, next April/May...

bb

I flew MSY-SAN-SJC a couple of weeks ago and was surprised by how many connecting passengers we had. Despite the roulette game with whether you have to leave security, SAN is a great place at which to connect to Northern California and potentially LAS and the northwest. At baggage claim in SJC, we probably had 20 bags that had come from MSY.

ADrum23 · Sat Aug 12, 2017 9:55 pm

jbpdx wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:

I still think AS does PDX-BNA. Not sure, but I don't know if an E75 has the legs for it. If it does, that would be a good starter aircraft for the service. Or borrow a 319 from VX, since they are starting BNA-SFO this fall.

E175 range is 1,800nm, BNA is 1,715nm, but I don't think they'd go for that. I'm guessing Alaska will leave this route to Southwest.

Which would be fine by me. I'd rather fly on a 737 than a E175.

jplatts · Sat Aug 12, 2017 10:07 pm

Will Southwest bring back nonstop service from HOU to PHL? Philadelphia is the #1 domestic destination from Houston Hobby without nonstop service from Houston Hobby (according to the DOT Domestic Consumer Airfare Report), and Philadelphia is also the largest U.S. city and the largest U.S. metropolitan area without nonstop service to Houston Hobby. Southwest might be able to do well on HOU-PHL nonstop service if it brings back HOU-PHL nonstop service since US Airways has merged with American Airlines, since US Airways has discontinued its relationship with United Airlines with the American-US Airways merger, since Southwest Airlines now has international flights out of Houston Hobby, and since Southwest would be able to provide connections to international destinations from PHL through HOU if Southwest brought back HOU-PHL nonstop service.

BMWdrvr75 · Sat Aug 12, 2017 10:14 pm

In the meantime Alaska is becoming California's favorite airline. Connecting the dots throughout California - albeit they do not have a ton of frequency between LAX-SFO, OAK-BUR, etc, etc they do serve many more cities than WN in California and are very happy to connect the dots. The ole boys in Texas have their heads up their a$$es and think making employees go out and paint posters that say we love California make them the most liked in California. Open FAT, PSP at a minimum and give the California Rapid Rewards peeps what they want Hawaii - California's vacation destination.

airliner371 · Sat Aug 12, 2017 10:46 pm

BMWdrvr75 wrote:
In the meantime Alaska is becoming California's favorite airline.

Show me a source. Southwest has plenty, including the fact that they are the #1 airline in Cali, #1 for intra-cali routes, #1 for flights to/from California, #1 for O&D in the entire LA Basin, #1 for O&D in the Bay Area.

http://www.southwestairlinesinvestorrel ... ebsite.pdf

That's all great that AS is trying to play catch-up in California (truly great, means more compeititon and lower fares), but catch-up it is playing while WN is working to solidify it's stance as California's #1 airline.

ADrum23 · Sat Aug 12, 2017 10:50 pm

airliner371 wrote:
BMWdrvr75 wrote:
In the meantime Alaska is becoming California's favorite airline.

Show me a source. Southwest has plenty, including the fact that they are the #1 airline in Cali, #1 for intra-cali routes, #1 for flights to/from California, #1 for O&D in the entire LA Basin, #1 for O&D in the Bay Area.

http://www.southwestairlinesinvestorrel ... ebsite.pdf

That's all great that AS is trying to play catch-up in California (truly great, means more compeititon and lower fares), but catch-up it is playing while WN is working to solidify it's stance as California's #1 airline.

Yet, as he pointed out, they still don't go to Hawaii. Got to do that before WN can really go to the next level.

airliner371 · Sat Aug 12, 2017 10:54 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
airliner371 wrote:
BMWdrvr75 wrote:
In the meantime Alaska is becoming California's favorite airline.

Show me a source. Southwest has plenty, including the fact that they are the #1 airline in Cali, #1 for intra-cali routes, #1 for flights to/from California, #1 for O&D in the entire LA Basin, #1 for O&D in the Bay Area.

http://www.southwestairlinesinvestorrel ... ebsite.pdf

That's all great that AS is trying to play catch-up in California (truly great, means more compeititon and lower fares), but catch-up it is playing while WN is working to solidify it's stance as California's #1 airline.

Yet, as he pointed out, they still don't go to Hawaii. Got to do that before WN can really go to the next level.

Agreed, and I'm sure they will eventually, the boys in Dallas aren't stupid, they are just tedious with every little detail to make sure everything works properly (i.e. the long awaited res system transition).

wwtraveler99 · Sat Aug 12, 2017 11:11 pm

http://www.southwestairlinesinvestorrel ... script.pdf

"Turning to our order book, we made just some tweaks to the order book. And in short, we added four pre-owned 700s."[/quote]

I believe if you finish the quote they go on to say this will allow them to delay 4 800 deliveries to a later time. 2 800 max deliveries in 2021 and 2022. In all reality WN will not "add" 4 planes to the fleet only moving some around.

WW

airliner371 · Sat Aug 12, 2017 11:16 pm

wwtraveler99 wrote:
http://www.southwestairlinesinvestorrelations.com/~/media/Files/S/Southwest-IR/events/LUV_2Q17_Transcript.pdf

"Turning to our order book, we made just some tweaks to the order book. And in short, we added four pre-owned 700s."

I believe if you finish the quote they go on to say this will allow them to delay 4 800 deliveries to a later time. 2 800 max deliveries in 2021 and 2022. In all reality WN will not "add" 4 planes to the fleet only moving some around.

WW

You are not wrong, but I'd also point out this section of the call...

"And our tech ops folks are doing a fantastic job. And what we're finding here in 2017 is the aircraft [used -700s] are being delivered earlier than we had planned."

"So knowing that for the second half of the year, we've updated our forecast. And we've also decided to implement some scheduled flying with some of this available aircraft soon. And that will be for flying beginning in the fourth quarter. "

So WN does have some additional flying to be announced for the fourth quarter.

usairways85 · Sat Aug 12, 2017 11:19 pm

jplatts wrote:
Will Southwest bring back nonstop service from HOU to PHL? Philadelphia is the #1 domestic destination from Houston Hobby without nonstop service from Houston Hobby (according to the DOT Domestic Consumer Airfare Report), and Philadelphia is also the largest U.S. city and the largest U.S. metropolitan area without nonstop service to Houston Hobby. Southwest might be able to do well on HOU-PHL nonstop service if it brings back HOU-PHL nonstop service since US Airways has merged with American Airlines, since US Airways has discontinued its relationship with United Airlines with the American-US Airways merger, since Southwest Airlines now has international flights out of Houston Hobby, and since Southwest would be able to provide connections to international destinations from PHL through HOU if Southwest brought back HOU-PHL nonstop service.

Philadelphia-Houston fell off a cliff over the past 5 years and hasn't really recovered since the last time WN flew HOU-PHL. There are a number of potential factors but my belief is that the drop in oil really cut into traffic between the two cities. AA only flies E-jets and even UA mixes in a few E-jets.

Avg PDEW Philadelphia-Houston
2011 -519
2014 - 325
2015 - 465
2016 - 384

Midwestindy · Sat Aug 12, 2017 11:24 pm

wwtraveler99 wrote:
http://www.southwestairlinesinvestorrelations.com/~/media/Files/S/Southwest-IR/events/LUV_2Q17_Transcript.pdf

"Turning to our order book, we made just some tweaks to the order book. And in short, we added four pre-owned 700s."

I believe if you finish the quote they go on to say this will allow them to delay 4 800 deliveries to a later time. 2 800 max deliveries in 2021 and 2022. In all reality WN will not "add" 4 planes to the fleet only moving some around.

WW

Basically what it is saying is that WN now has 4 planes in fleet that it wouldn't have had, because there was no set schedule for when those 4 800s were to be delivered...

AWACSooner · Sun Aug 13, 2017 12:21 am

OKC-MCO would be nice...

southwest1675 · Sun Aug 13, 2017 1:11 am

SANFan wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
things I'd like to see WN launch in this latest update

1. BNA-PDX (though I highly doubt they will). Someone needs to launch BNA-PDX soon.

I keep seeing this desire on multiple threads and just decided to look up the numbers.

The DOT O&D numbers (Table 6) for 2016 averaged 102 PDEW; the high was, of course, during the summer, with 117 PDEW. The low (Q1) was 69 PDEW...

I'm sorry but despite your insistence that "someone needs to launch BNA-PDX soon", I wouldn't hold my breath, not with those numbers. Especially not on WN. Long shot might be a summer-only route -- hasn't that already been done? AS could maybe make it work due to connecting pax over PDX , or even over BNA, but IMO those numbers just don't make a very optimistic case. We'll see.

bb

I personally think those numbers are not bad considering it's strictly O&D. I would think with a nonstop flight, you would surely see those numbers go up.

wnflyguy · Sun Aug 13, 2017 1:47 am

Midwestindy wrote:
wwtraveler99 wrote:
http://www.southwestairlinesinvestorrelations.com/~/media/Files/S/Southwest-IR/events/LUV_2Q17_Transcript.pdf

"Turning to our order book, we made just some tweaks to the order book. And in short, we added four pre-owned 700s."

I believe if you finish the quote they go on to say this will allow them to delay 4 800 deliveries to a later time. 2 800 max deliveries in 2021 and 2022. In all reality WN will not "add" 4 planes to the fleet only moving some around.

WW

Basically what it is saying is that WN now has 4 planes in fleet that it wouldn't have had, because there was no set schedule for when those 4 800s were to be delivered...

Yes WN will receive unplanned 4 used 700 to the forth quarter. This freed up the option to Swap 800NG slots with 800MAX later on. Still giving WN it's planned fleet growth. Just now it's taking on 4 used 700 earlier and less 800NG next year.
Talk is WN may be getting 6 more additional used 700 from Boeing next year.
I'm guessing they will also probably swap delivery slots to for 800MAX later on Vs taking 800NG now.
This is a Win Win for both Southwest and Boeing because not only does WN get more MAX aircraft it will free up Boeing to ramp down 800NG production and add another MAX production line.

To everyone pleasure I have no Guesses or predictions on this release.

Flyguy

jplatts · Sun Aug 13, 2017 3:03 am

ADrum23 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
Cvgspotter15 wrote:

I would love to see them expand at CVG, but I still don't think they are doing too great.

I wonder if WN would consider dropping frequency on MDW and BWI, in exchange for another route or two. Frankly, I think that is their problem, trying to sell passengers 1-stop itineraries to Florida when DL/G4/F9 operate many direct flights for the same price or even cheaper is not going to work.

That would be nice. I'd like to see WN start service from CVG to DEN, LGA and MCO to better compete with DL.

According to the Domestic Airline Consumer Airfare Report, the 15 Southwest destinations within the LGA perimeter that currently do not have nonstop service on Southwest Airlines out of LGA and that have more passengers per day to and from LGA than CVG does are FLL, MCO, CLT, DTW, BOS, PBI, DCA, RDU, MSP, IND, CMH, MSY, CLE, PIT, and RSW. Of these 15 destinations, jetBlue does serve FLL, MCO, CLT, BOS, PBI, RDU, MSY, and RSW nonstop from JFK, Southwest had until recently had nonstop service from LGA to IND, and Southwest currently has nonstop service from EWR to FLL, MCO, and IND. There are other domestic destinations within the LGA perimeter that Southwest would want to serve nonstop from LGA before going to CVG nonstop from LGA. In addition, Frontier also recently added nonstop service from LGA to CVG, and there is already more competition on CVG-LGA than there is on at least CMH-LGA and PIT-LGA.

The demand for CVG to DEN flights has significantly increased in the past year according to BTS statistics (which can be found at https://www.transtats.bts.gov/airports. ... Cincinnati), with 111,000 passengers who traveled on CVG to DEN flights between June 2015 and May 2016 and with 158,000 passengers who traveled on CVG to DEN flights between June 2016 and May 2017. In addition to increased demand for CVG-DEN flights, Southwest would be able to provide connecting service to destinations further west from CVG through DEN if Southwest adds nonstop service to DEN from CVG. Furthermore, some of the Southwest Airlines destinations west of DEN currently do not have any nonstop service from CVG on any airline and some of the Southwest Airlines destinations west of DEN that have nonstop service out of CVG on airlines other than Southwest are currently underserved from CVG.

The demand for CVG to MCO flights has increased in the past year according to BTS statistics, with 136,000 passengers who traveled on CVG to MCO flights between June 2015 and May 2016 and with 153,000 passengers who traveled on CVG to MCO flights between May 2016 and April 2017. In addition, MCO is closer to Disney World and Universal Studios Orlando than SFB is, and many of the Cincinnati-area travelers would travel to Orlando would prefer to fly to MCO instead of SFB if Southwest added nonstop service to MCO from CVG. In addition to serving the airport that is closer to many of the major tourist destinations in Greater Orlando, Southwest also does not charge fees for the 1st and 2nd checked bags, and some of the vacation travelers who check bags on flights between CVG and MCO would choose Southwest over Allegiant, Delta, or Frontier if Southwest added nonstop service from CVG to MCO.

I could see Southwest adding nonstop service to DEN and MCO from CVG since demand for flights to these two destinations from CVG has increased in the last year, since DEN and MCO are both major focus cities for Southwest Airlines, since DEN is the 4th largest Southwest Airlines station nationwide and the 2nd largest Southwest Airlines station west of the Mississippi River, since MCO is the 3rd largest Southwest Airlines station east of the Mississippi River and the 10th Southwest Airlines station nationwide, and since MCO is the largest Southwest Airlines station east of the Mississippi River that does not have nonstop service on Southwest Airlines from CVG.

Dallas is one of the top destinations from Cincinnati, and there is currently no nonstop service from Cincinnati to Dallas Love Field even though Southwest has its home base at Dallas Love Field and even though Dallas Love Field is the 5th largest Southwest Airlines station. According to BTS statistics, the number of passengers travelling between Dallas and Cincinnati increased from 117,000 passengers between November 2013 and October 2014 to 172,000 passengers between November 2014 to October 2015, which translates to a 47% increase in the number of passengers traveling between Dallas and Cincinnati after the repeal of the Wright Amendment and after Frontier added DFW-CVG nonstop service. There might be enough demand for Southwest to serve DAL nonstop from CVG, even though some of the demand for Dallas to Cincinnati flights is currently covered by the Delta and Frontier DFW-CVG nonstop flights, since Southwest has its home base at Dallas Love Field, since Southwest has a customer base in the DFW Metroplex and other parts of Texas who would prefer to fly Southwest over Delta or Frontier, since demand for Dallas to Cincinnati flights has significantly increased since the repeal of the Wright Amendment, since Dallas is one of the top destinations from CVG, and since Southwest would be able to provide connecting service from CVG through DAL to HOU, AUS, SAT, and ABQ if Southwest adds nonstop service to DAL from CVG.

pdxav8r · Sun Aug 13, 2017 3:42 am

southwest1675 wrote:
SANFan wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
things I'd like to see WN launch in this latest update

1. BNA-PDX (though I highly doubt they will). Someone needs to launch BNA-PDX soon.

I keep seeing this desire on multiple threads and just decided to look up the numbers.

The DOT O&D numbers (Table 6) for 2016 averaged 102 PDEW; the high was, of course, during the summer, with 117 PDEW. The low (Q1) was 69 PDEW...

I'm sorry but despite your insistence that "someone needs to launch BNA-PDX soon", I wouldn't hold my breath, not with those numbers. Especially not on WN. Long shot might be a summer-only route -- hasn't that already been done? AS could maybe make it work due to connecting pax over PDX , or even over BNA, but IMO those numbers just don't make a very optimistic case. We'll see.

bb

I personally think those numbers are not bad considering it's strictly O&D. I would think with a nonstop flight, you would surely see those numbers go up.

Personally, I don't see PDX-BNA happening anytime soon, but I'm not in the scheduling department of either WN or AS. Seems too weak on WN's side, and with the Virgin integration, it is hard to determine the true AS direction. But thanks SANfan for your veiled concern in the matter.

DeltaRules · Sun Aug 13, 2017 4:01 am

jplatts wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
I wonder if WN would consider dropping frequency on MDW and BWI, in exchange for another route or two. Frankly, I think that is their problem, trying to sell passengers 1-stop itineraries to Florida when DL/G4/F9 operate many direct flights for the same price or even cheaper is not going to work.

That would be nice. I'd like to see WN start service from CVG to DEN, LGA and MCO to better compete with DL.

There are other domestic destinations within the LGA perimeter that Southwest would want to serve nonstop from LGA before going to CVG nonstop from LGA. In addition, Frontier also recently added nonstop service from LGA to CVG, and there is already more competition on CVG-LGA than there is on at least CMH-LGA and PIT-LGA.

Southwest told The Columbus Dispatch in June at their 25th anniversary at CMH recognition that they'd run CMH-LGA if they had slots to give.

AAvgeek744 · Sun Aug 13, 2017 2:33 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:
SteveXC500 wrote:

Definitely agree with #3. Especially when not every airport, like MSP, has service to HOU.

For MSP, WN is at roughly 24 daily departures out of four gates. Could they add a few more during off peak times? Between 10:00-12:30 pm, T2 is practically empty.

I still think AS does PDX-BNA. Not sure, but I don't know if an E75 has the legs for it. If it does, that would be a good starter aircraft for the service. Or borrow a 319 from VX, since they are starting BNA-SFO this fall.

Yeah, I think AS starts BNA-PDX before WN does, though I think any flight would have to be a mainline, as it may be just outside the range of their Horizon/Skywest fleet.

Whoever starts it first, there likely won't be any competition. It looks like a good candidate for a VX 319 as the merger moves along and some Airbus from VX take over AS flights, and vice-versa.

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