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KarelXWB
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Swiss studies A321LR business case

Mon Aug 21, 2017 10:42 am

Swiss may order some A321LR aircraft to open new markets.

Swiss CEO Thomas Klühr (53) on SonntagsBlick : "We are discussing this within the Group and are examining a possible application spectrum of the A321 Neo LR."

...

"I see a certain potential as these machines have a considerable range. With this aircraft, new markets could be considered" says Swiss CEO Klühr.


Article (in German):
https://www.blick.ch/news/wirtschaft/ne ... 72784.html
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lesfalls
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:30 pm

I wonder where they could use it. I'm guessing that the distance from ZRH to the U.S would be too far for it?
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seahawk
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:33 pm

Middle East, Central Asia, Caribbean, East Coast. And remember he said within the Group - which means the whole LH group.
 
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OA940
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:38 pm

Interesting. They already have a Business Class that fits them, so it could work.
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SpaceshipDC10
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:46 pm

lesfalls wrote:
I wonder where they could use it. I'm guessing that the distance from ZRH to the U.S would be too far for it?


Air Transat has recently ordered A321LRs to replace its A310s it uses across the Atlantic during summers. However I'm not sure whether LX will use theirs to open-up new thin routes or charters to say Halifax, or to add capacity on some existing routes.
 
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lesfalls
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:57 pm

SpaceshipDC10 wrote:
lesfalls wrote:
I wonder where they could use it. I'm guessing that the distance from ZRH to the U.S would be too far for it?


Air Transat has recently ordered A321LRs to replace its A310s it uses across the Atlantic during summers. However I'm not sure whether LX will use theirs to open-up new thin routes or charters to say Halifax, or to add capacity on some existing routes.

TS I understand why they orders it but the reason i'm asking about wether it's too far from ZRH because it is still a lot farther from Switzerland to North America over Canada to BOD(one route which TS operates).
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runway23
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:03 pm

It would certainly open up new possibilities:

-Routes that have lower amounts of premium traffic could for example get 2 daily frequencies instead of 1 (eg ZRH-YUL)
-Possibly less of a risk to open up new destinations from ZRH and possibly GVA if they so wish.
-Would enable LX to do Iran, Saudi Arabia and other middle east destinations.
-Would open up a large part of Africa

I think these last 2 points are they most attractive part of operating an A321LR for LX. I.e. Rebuilding the network that was cut when SR went bust. There are clearly many routes where a 333 is too large or too premium to operate profitably. 321LR would solve that problem. Whether LH Group want LX to operate those flights is another question...
 
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:06 pm

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Newbiepilot
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:21 pm

I see opportunity in Africa. Rather than flying ZRH NBO DAR ZRH in a triangle route, they could offer nonstop service to each city. The A321LR could also help with the GVA transatlsntic flights. GVA can be high yielding, but there isn't much leisure demand to fill the economy cabin year round.
 
behramjee
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:24 pm

ZRH-YUL is an 8 hour 20 minute flight hence beyond the range capability of the A321NEO LR. This aircraft cannot operate trans-atlantic from ZRH/GVA. It is better suited for 6-7 hour flights maximum from ZRH/GVA to Middle East and Central/West Africa such as :

*block times mentioned below besides each destination

ZRH-RUH 5:45
ZRH-JED 5:25
ZRH-ALA 6:50
ZRH-LOS 6:10
ZRH-ABV 5:45
ZRH-IKA 5:10
ZRH-EBL 4:25
ZRH-BGW 4:40
ZRH-ACC 6:20
ZRH-DMM 5:45
ZRH-BAH 5:50

Configuration should be 24J flat beds (75 inch seat pitch) + 126Y (32 inch seat pitch) so 150 seats in total. Maximum you could get one more row of Y class through some creativity.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:51 pm

behramjee wrote:
ZRH-YUL is an 8 hour 20 minute flight hence beyond the range capability of the A321NEO LR. This aircraft cannot operate trans-atlantic from ZRH/GVA. It is better suited for 6-7 hour flights maximum from ZRH/GVA to Middle East and Central/West Africa such as :

*block times mentioned below besides each destination

ZRH-RUH 5:45
ZRH-JED 5:25
ZRH-ALA 6:50
ZRH-LOS 6:10
ZRH-ABV 5:45
ZRH-IKA 5:10
ZRH-EBL 4:25
ZRH-BGW 4:40
ZRH-ACC 6:20
ZRH-DMM 5:45
ZRH-BAH 5:50

Configuration should be 24J flat beds (75 inch seat pitch) + 126Y (32 inch seat pitch) so 150 seats in total. Maximum you could get one more row of Y class through some creativity.


With a 2 class cabin, the regular A321neo should be able to operate many of those routes. The extra 7,000 lbs of payload on the LR will help if they want to fly cargo and have extra fuel for indirect routes and headwinds. If they can't get to North America from GVA that might impact whether they need all the optional auxiliary fuel tanks or not. Cargo is important to Africa and more of those Aux tanks limit the volume avaialbe for cargo.
 
c933103
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:24 pm

I think all the routes operated by PrivatAir now could probably be better served witha 321LR with a more traditional cabin layout?
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runway23
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:17 pm

behramjee wrote:
ZRH-YUL is an 8 hour 20 minute flight hence beyond the range capability of the A321NEO LR. This aircraft cannot operate trans-atlantic from ZRH/GVA. It is better suited for 6-7 hour flights maximum from ZRH/GVA to Middle East and Central/West Africa such as :


Better tell that to Airbus then who is selling the 321LR as a 4000NMI range aircraft, ZRH-YUL is 3247NMI so well within range even including winds. Also actual flying time is most often around 7h40 rather than 8h20 which is scheduled the block time.

From ZRH, IAD would be at about maximum range, in the other direction BOM/DEL would probably be the furthest a 321LR could get.
 
SpaceshipDC10
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:50 pm

lesfalls wrote:
TS I understand why they orders it but the reason i'm asking about wether it's too far from ZRH because it is still a lot farther from Switzerland to North America over Canada to BOD(one route which TS operates).


The A321neo range is 3,500nm and 4,000 for the LR. Out of ZRH, YHZ or YUL are 2,898 and 3,247nm per GCmap, well within the range. I used TS as an example because to serve LYS, BSL and NCE from YUL as they do with their A310s, the normal version of the 321neo would probably be just at its limits or too short on range due to weather or routing.
 
airbazar
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:32 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
I see opportunity in Africa. Rather than flying ZRH NBO DAR ZRH in a triangle route, they could offer nonstop service to each city. The A321LR could also help with the GVA transatlsntic flights. GVA can be high yielding, but there isn't much leisure demand to fill the economy cabin year round.

NBO maybe but DAR at 3,600+nm is likely outside the range, especially coming back with the heat in DAR.
There are however lots of possible destinations within the range and even the possibility of operating medium/long-haul from GVA.
runway23 wrote:
Better tell that to Airbus then who is selling the 321LR as a 4000NMI range aircraft,

4,000nm still air. I think the real range for a TATL route will be around 3,600nm which lik eyou said, is still good for ZRH-YUL.
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Tue Aug 22, 2017 5:21 am

Seems like this opens up lots of good PTP options. I'd expect a forthcoming order.
 
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lesfalls
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Tue Aug 22, 2017 8:51 am

SpaceshipDC10 wrote:
lesfalls wrote:
TS I understand why they orders it but the reason i'm asking about wether it's too far from ZRH because it is still a lot farther from Switzerland to North America over Canada to BOD(one route which TS operates).


The A321neo range is 3,500nm and 4,000 for the LR. Out of ZRH, YHZ or YUL are 2,898 and 3,247nm per GCmap, well within the range. I used TS as an example because to serve LYS, BSL and NCE from YUL as they do with their A310s, the normal version of the 321neo would probably be just at its limits or too short on range due to weather or routing.

My apologies. Didn't realize that. That will be very interesting to see when TS gets the LRs delivered.
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Kikko19
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Tue Aug 22, 2017 12:10 pm

When is the eis of the LR? Who's starting? TP?
 
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euroflyer
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Tue Aug 22, 2017 12:40 pm

Kikko19 wrote:
When is the eis of the LR? Who's starting? TP?


I think EIS in mid-2019 but I don't think TP ordered LR version only regular 321neo. They'll launch A339 though.
For A321neo LR Norwegian Air Shuttle have ordered 30, AirLease corp. 30 (some going to AirTransat, AirAstana and AerLingus), and we are waiting for JetBlue conversion confirmation as well

I don't know which will be launch customer
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Ab345
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:16 pm

euroflyer wrote:
Kikko19 wrote:
When is the eis of the LR? Who's starting? TP?


I think EIS in mid-2019 but I don't think TP ordered LR version only regular 321neo. They'll launch A339 though.
For A321neo LR Norwegian Air Shuttle have ordered 30, AirLease corp. 30 (some going to AirTransat, AirAstana and AerLingus), and we are waiting for JetBlue conversion confirmation as well

I don't know which will be launch customer


TAP's orders include A321neoLR aircraft, giving it the potential to open new long haul routes not possible with widebodies.

https://centreforaviation.com/insights/ ... aul-332288
 
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Channex757
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:19 pm

Too much Atlantic fixation here.

LX will be seriously looking into the aircraft for medium-long and thin routes to where there is money, not the bloodbath markets across the Pond. So it's east and south where the benefits could be used. The central European location of ZRH and GVA is excellent for feeding into these profitable services and LX certainly has a decent European operation.
 
Obzerva
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:34 pm

Would be a handy aircraft for LX to have in its fleet to test the waters on some African routes if the economics ever turned against SN's A330s and SN became a little more EW...
 
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euroflyer
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:36 pm

Ab345 wrote:
euroflyer wrote:
Kikko19 wrote:
When is the eis of the LR? Who's starting? TP?


I think EIS in mid-2019 but I don't think TP ordered LR version only regular 321neo. They'll launch A339 though.
For A321neo LR Norwegian Air Shuttle have ordered 30, AirLease corp. 30 (some going to AirTransat, AirAstana and AerLingus), and we are waiting for JetBlue conversion confirmation as well

I don't know which will be launch customer


TAP's orders include A321neoLR aircraft, giving it the potential to open new long haul routes not possible with widebodies.

https://centreforaviation.com/insights/ ... aul-332288


My bad I forgot this one. Also, Azores will lease from ALC, but AirTransat will lease from AerCap.
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airbazar
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Tue Aug 22, 2017 2:04 pm

Channex757 wrote:
Too much Atlantic fixation here.

LX will be seriously looking into the aircraft for medium-long and thin routes to where there is money, not the bloodbath markets across the Pond. So it's east and south where the benefits could be used. The central European location of ZRH and GVA is excellent for feeding into these profitable services and LX certainly has a decent European operation.

I understand that East and South will offer opportunities but routes from ZRH/GVA to N.America are hardly a bloodbath. You know where there is a bloodbath? Routes to the East that face competition from the ME3 and TK,
The LR could help LX fight off the ME3 carriers by offering premium passengers a non-stop alternative into currently unserved markets, or increased frequencies to markets already served, in the East, West, and South.
 
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Ab345
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Tue Aug 22, 2017 2:08 pm

euroflyer wrote:
Ab345 wrote:
euroflyer wrote:

I think EIS in mid-2019 but I don't think TP ordered LR version only regular 321neo. They'll launch A339 though.
For A321neo LR Norwegian Air Shuttle have ordered 30, AirLease corp. 30 (some going to AirTransat, AirAstana and AerLingus), and we are waiting for JetBlue conversion confirmation as well

I don't know which will be launch customer


TAP's orders include A321neoLR aircraft, giving it the potential to open new long haul routes not possible with widebodies.

https://centreforaviation.com/insights/ ... aul-332288


My bad I forgot this one. Also, Azores will lease from ALC, but AirTransat will lease from AerCap.


It's hard to keep up with the considerations and rumors so no worries :) I think it's safe to say that the LR is being closely watched by most airlines that have invested in the neo family and have the route structure to support the LR version. Airbus is promoting the notion and it's not that much of a hustle to go between a normal 321neo and the LR so who knows. I tend to think also that as with the MTOW increase of the A359 at some time in the future the 97t MTOW of the LR may become more standard equipment that we think.
 
r2rho
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Tue Aug 22, 2017 2:15 pm

Although airliners.net keeps seeing the value of the A321LR as a TATL airframe only, I think LX / LH group have some very different destinations in mind... just trace a 4000nm range map around ZRH, discount for winds, non-ideal routing, etc, and see what falls inside. (spoiler: not the US!)
 
RalXWB
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Tue Aug 22, 2017 2:17 pm

The LR is just the icing on the cake of the 321 family and it would suit any European carrier well for medium to long range routes in Africa and Asia for example...
 
DALCE
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Tue Aug 22, 2017 2:27 pm

Mind that ZRH is slot contrained during peakhours....
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753,763,744,77W,788,319,320,321,333,AB6.
 
parapente
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Tue Aug 22, 2017 2:55 pm

The 757 went out of production (availability) a decade ago.The A321NEO NEO LR now replaces it with a 30% lower SFC which clearly widens the business dynamic.
There can be no doubt that all sorts of airlines around the World are looking to see what this aircraft can do for them.So yes its a lot broader than simply tatl.
The fact that Airbus appear to be looking at ways of further extending the range a little suggests(to me) that some airline(s) have asked if this is possible for whatever potential routes they have in mind.
 
questions
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Tue Aug 22, 2017 3:13 pm

behramjee wrote:
ZRH-YUL is an 8 hour 20 minute flight hence beyond the range capability of the A321NEO LR. This aircraft cannot operate trans-atlantic from ZRH/GVA. It is better suited for 6-7 hour flights maximum from ZRH/GVA to Middle East and Central/West Africa such as :

*block times mentioned below besides each destination

ZRH-RUH 5:45
ZRH-JED 5:25
ZRH-ALA 6:50
ZRH-LOS 6:10
ZRH-ABV 5:45
ZRH-IKA 5:10
ZRH-EBL 4:25
ZRH-BGW 4:40
ZRH-ACC 6:20
ZRH-DMM 5:45
ZRH-BAH 5:50

Configuration should be 24J flat beds (75 inch seat pitch) + 126Y (32 inch seat pitch) so 150 seats in total. Maximum you could get one more row of Y class through some creativity.


Does the business class market really demand lie flat for 4-6 hour flights?
 
Aircellist
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:13 pm

YUL-GVA and ongoing to Africa would make sense, I believe.
"When I find out I was wrong, I change my mind. What do you do?" -attributed to John Maynard Keynes
 
hynithuchi
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Tue Aug 22, 2017 7:24 pm

Aircellist wrote:
YUL-GVA and ongoing to Africa would make sense, I believe.

Africa yes, but YUL-GVA is already operated as a JW AC/LX, so there wouldn't be enough demand for 2 flights and I think the local market would prefer a widebody aircraft over an A321LR. IMO, no chance for a successful LX flight along with AC.
 
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reidar76
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Tue Aug 22, 2017 7:36 pm

Taking headwinds, non-optimal routing, and required reserves for alternates etc. into consideration, I would say we should subtract about 500 to 600 nm from the nominal range. Airbus is promising 4000nm with 206 passengers. It is likely Swiss will have a more premium configuration, thus reducing weight and increasing range.

Overlooking the destinations that can be reached with a regular A321neo, the LR enables the following additional destinations from Zürich/Geneva:

North-America
Canada: Montreal, Québec, Ottawa (+Toronto that is just barely within range)
US: New York, Boston (+Philadelphia that is just barely within range)

Asia:
India: New Deli, Surat (Suryapur), Vadodara, Rajkot (+Mumbai/Bombay that is on the range limit, but there aren't that strong headwinds on this leg.)
Pakistan: Lahore, Multan, Hyderabad (Islamabad is within the range of a regular A321neo.)

Africa:
Somalia: Mogadishu
Kenya: Nairobi
Uganda: Kampala
Congo: Kinshasa
Angola: Luanda
 
Waterbomber
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Tue Aug 22, 2017 8:33 pm

It's wishful thinking here.
LX doesn't have the customer base nor excess capacity to consistently fill 180 to 200 seat A321's to Africa.

The routes to/from Africa are very thin, and with the level of competition that there is now, there is no room for new entrants.
There is no O&D from ZRH and LX has failed to make Cameroon work, transferring those routes to SN.
Look at East Africa where a true bloodbath has LX pricing NBO flights at firesale fares.

If LX could have done it, they would have done a lot more using Privatair.

This is a case of finding a route to match an aircraft, not an aircraft to match a route.
LX better stick doing what they do now, they're super profitable as it is. If it ain't broken, don't fix it.
Last edited by Waterbomber on Tue Aug 22, 2017 8:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
LXwing
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Tue Aug 22, 2017 8:57 pm

Ab345 wrote:
euroflyer wrote:
Kikko19 wrote:
When is the eis of the LR? Who's starting? TP?


I think EIS in mid-2019 but I don't think TP ordered LR version only regular 321neo. They'll launch A339 though.
For A321neo LR Norwegian Air Shuttle have ordered 30, AirLease corp. 30 (some going to AirTransat, AirAstana and AerLingus), and we are waiting for JetBlue conversion confirmation as well

I don't know which will be launch customer


TAP's orders include A321neoLR aircraft, giving it the potential to open new long haul routes not possible with widebodies.

https://centreforaviation.com/insights/ ... aul-332288


At least 10 of the 24 A321neo that TAP ordered will be LR. But they could get even more, as they have just agreed to lease 2 additional A321neo of which the exact version is not yet known.

About the expected lauch operator for the LR, I believe it will be Azores.
 
xwatewate
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Tue Aug 22, 2017 9:58 pm

One can dream, but BSL-EWR/BOS could be interesting if LX can use it to win back some corporate contracts from the pharma industry ex-BSL.
 
runway23
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Tue Aug 22, 2017 10:15 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
It's wishful thinking here.
LX doesn't have the customer base nor excess capacity to consistently fill 180 to 200 seat A321's to Africa.

The routes to/from Africa are very thin, and with the level of competition that there is now, there is no room for new entrants.
There is no O&D from ZRH and LX has failed to make Cameroon work, transferring those routes to SN.
Look at East Africa where a true bloodbath has LX pricing NBO flights at firesale fares.

If LX could have done it, they would have done a lot more using Privatair.

This is a case of finding a route to match an aircraft, not an aircraft to match a route.
LX better stick doing what they do now, they're super profitable as it is. If it ain't broken, don't fix it.


Taking into account how LX configure their aircraft in a heavy configuration, I'd expect a cabin of 20 to 28J on any 321neoLR they might operate, bringing down the total to 160-170 pax.

East Africa is a tricky market as you have the ME3 and ET/KE who are aggressive on that front.

The same cannot be said for West Africa, where there's a lack of supply in seats and going through DXB makes less sense than for those going to East Africa.

I think for LX the 321neoLR really comes down to a couple of main points:

-Willingness to use the aircraft to recapture some long-haul markets from GVA that are thin but have strong yields. The aircraft and the markets it could serve seem better fitted to GVA than ZRH - but does LX see itself investing long-term in GVA (bearing in mind the short-haul operation is loss making but overall balanced by the profitable JFK flight).
-Willingness to go back into 'traditional' SR markets long since abandoned and either never or very shortly served by LX (Middle East, West Africa)
-Desire to use these aircraft to free up widebody aircraft (eg. NBO/DAR, TLV, YUL, BOS, EWR, DXB/MCT)
-Desire to offer a more premium experience (and try to obtain a premium or be/become more competitive) on some of the longer medium-haul destinations (DME, CAI, TLV)

Historically most of the articles about Swiss that are published in the Swiss press aren't far off and eventually end up happening. The article makes me believe Swiss has defined a business plan or strategic use for these aircraft but still needs approval from LH.
 
flyyul
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Wed Aug 23, 2017 3:49 am

I can assure everybody here, based on experience, that the A321LR does not have the legs to do YUL-ZRH or JFK-ZRH. Even though the 321NEO-LR is a 4,000 nm airplane, this is based on still winds and without items such as contigency fuel / diversion fuel etc.

The A321 NEO LR from North America essentially hits payload restrictions at around BRU/CDG. Swiss with need a very low dense A321 LR with low premium seat count to hit North America.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:56 am

He said discussing the A321LR within the group. Swiss wonßt fly it to NA, simply because the A321 lacks performance.
 
thomaaas
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Wed Aug 23, 2017 7:47 am

seahawk wrote:
He said discussing the A321LR within the group. Swiss wonßt fly it to NA, simply because the A321 lacks performance.

The A321LR would be perfect for SN. They could use it to open more NA routes (YUL, BOS, EWR) and second daily frequencies on some its AFR routes (DKR, ABJ)
 
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seahawk
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Wed Aug 23, 2017 7:58 am

thomaaas wrote:
seahawk wrote:
He said discussing the A321LR within the group. Swiss wonßt fly it to NA, simply because the A321 lacks performance.

The A321LR would be perfect for SN. They could use it to open more NA routes (YUL, BOS, EWR) and second daily frequencies on some its AFR routes (DKR, ABJ)


SN, EW, Austrian and Swiss could probably all make it work. That does not mean that all will use it for TATL In fact I think the most interesting routes are in Africa, Central Asia and the Middle East.
 
LHLX
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Wed Aug 23, 2017 9:44 am

Would Lx change the 2x daily 330 between ZRH and TLV to 3x daily 321LR?
At least this way they could operate to TLV with smaller equipment but a better product than the 321s they send to TLV every so often...
 
panamair
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:58 am

According to the linked article, LX is looking at Africa routes for this aircraft:

http://atwonline.com/airframes/ceo-swis ... ica-routes
 
airbazar
Posts: 9946
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Thu Aug 24, 2017 12:44 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
It's wishful thinking here.
LX doesn't have the customer base nor excess capacity to consistently fill 180 to 200 seat A321's to Africa.

The routes to/from Africa are very thin, and with the level of competition that there is now, there is no room for new entrants.
There is no O&D from ZRH and LX has failed to make Cameroon work, transferring those routes to SN.
Look at East Africa where a true bloodbath has LX pricing NBO flights at firesale fares.


The problem LX has venturing into deep Africa is the same that most Euro carriers based in central/Northern Europe have. The only aircraft with sufficient range are simply too big for these long and thin routes. The A321NEO/LR solve this problem. Even SN has this problem which is why some of their African routes are triangle routes. The A321LR would allow SN to decouple their triangle routes and offer each as a standalone destination.

flyyul wrote:
I can assure everybody here, based on experience, that the A321LR does not have the legs to do YUL-ZRH or JFK-ZRH. Even though the 321NEO-LR is a 4,000 nm airplane, this is based on still winds and without items such as contigency fuel / diversion fuel etc.

You're delusional. Sorry for being blunt :)
We have 752's today (or had it recently), flying routes longer than that (txl-ewr). The plain A321NEO will at worse, match the 752 range so if the LR can't fly those routes, there has been a serious miscalculation on both Airbus and the airlines who are buying the plane to fly such routes. Having said that I don't expect LX to put an A321 on a ZRH-JFK route.
 
Waterbomber
Posts: 849
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 11:51 am

Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:39 pm

airbazar wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
It's wishful thinking here.
LX doesn't have the customer base nor excess capacity to consistently fill 180 to 200 seat A321's to Africa.

The routes to/from Africa are very thin, and with the level of competition that there is now, there is no room for new entrants.
There is no O&D from ZRH and LX has failed to make Cameroon work, transferring those routes to SN.
Look at East Africa where a true bloodbath has LX pricing NBO flights at firesale fares.


The problem LX has venturing into deep Africa is the same that most Euro carriers based in central/Northern Europe have. The only aircraft with sufficient range are simply too big for these long and thin routes. The A321NEO/LR solve this problem. Even SN has this problem which is why some of their African routes are triangle routes. The A321LR would allow SN to decouple their triangle routes and offer each as a standalone destination.

flyyul wrote:
I can assure everybody here, based on experience, that the A321LR does not have the legs to do YUL-ZRH or JFK-ZRH. Even though the 321NEO-LR is a 4,000 nm airplane, this is based on still winds and without items such as contigency fuel / diversion fuel etc.

You're delusional. Sorry for being blunt :)
We have 752's today (or had it recently), flying routes longer than that (txl-ewr). The plain A321NEO will at worse, match the 752 range so if the LR can't fly those routes, there has been a serious miscalculation on both Airbus and the airlines who are buying the plane to fly such routes. Having said that I don't expect LX to put an A321 on a ZRH-JFK route.


Both the A321CEO and A319 CEO have the legs to operate a lot of routes in Africa from Europe in a low density configuration and with ACT's, which is half of the LR's picture. That's not the problem with Africa.
SN triangulates and operates the routes with non-daily frequency for a market that they've been building for 40 years together with its predecessor.
TK has launched itself with a lot of enthusiasm with B739ER's. In the meanwhile, their enthusiasm has vanished quite abruptly.
AF/KL also triangulate and have to rely on their much more extensive feeding network to make it work. There is no growth though.

The volume just isn't there.
 
Scorpio
Posts: 5042
Joined: Thu Oct 04, 2001 3:48 am

Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:52 pm

airbazar wrote:
The problem LX has venturing into deep Africa is the same that most Euro carriers based in central/Northern Europe have. The only aircraft with sufficient range are simply too big for these long and thin routes. The A321NEO/LR solve this problem. Even SN has this problem which is why some of their African routes are triangle routes. The A321LR would allow SN to decouple their triangle routes and offer each as a standalone destination.


You're forgetting that SN carry a lot of cargo on many of the African routes. For those volumes, an A321 won't do.

That having been said, SN IS studying the A321LR. It just probably won't be for the routes you're suggesting.
 
DALCE
Posts: 1936
Joined: Thu Feb 01, 2007 7:45 pm

Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:55 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
It's wishful thinking here.
LX doesn't have the customer base nor excess capacity to consistently fill 180 to 200 seat A321's to Africa.


Based on what info?

Waterbomber wrote:
The routes to/from Africa are very thin, and with the level of competition that there is now, there is no room for new entrants.
There is no O&D from ZRH and LX has failed to make Cameroon work, transferring those routes to SN.


Wrong, LH took over the routes to DLA & NSI, not SN.


Waterbomber wrote:
This is a case of finding a route to match an aircraft, not an aircraft to match a route.
LX better stick doing what they do now, they're super profitable as it is. If it ain't broken, don't fix it.


Not true, LX knows exactly where to put this aircraft if they order it. So this statement is wrong since you don't have factual intell of what routes LX is looking at.
flown: F50,F70,CR1,CR2,CR9,CS3,E75,E90,143,AR8,AR1,733,735,736,73G,738,
753,763,744,77W,788,319,320,321,333,AB6.
 
JulietteBravo
Posts: 116
Joined: Sun Sep 04, 2016 5:25 pm

Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:53 pm

Accra, Douala, Lagos, Kampala
Teheran, Astana
Chinese and Indian cities

Maybe some operation out of Geneva?
 
LSZH34
Posts: 668
Joined: Thu Jul 16, 2015 5:33 pm

Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Thu Aug 24, 2017 8:50 pm

The A321LR could be used to TLV and maybe even DXB to free up 1-2 A333s which would allow to open up new longhaul destinations they were talking about recently.
 
airbazar
Posts: 9946
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:15 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
Both the A321CEO and A319 CEO have the legs to operate a lot of routes in Africa from Europe in a low density configuration and with ACT's, which is half of the LR's picture. That's not the problem with Africa.
SN triangulates and operates the routes with non-daily frequency for a market that they've been building for 40 years together with its predecessor.


They do NOT have the range.
Most important markets in West Africa and beyond are outside the range of the CEO from ZRH and especially from BRU
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=zrh-nbo&R= ... =wls&DU=nm
This is where airlines like TP, IB, and TK have an advantage. They are just close enough to Africa to cover more of it with narrowbodies.
SN operates triangular routes because they have to use an A330 to reach those destinations, and some of those destinations just don't have the demand to fill an A330. So they combine it with another thin destination in order to be able to fill an A330.

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