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reidar76
Posts: 529
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:58 pm

LSZH34 wrote:
The A321LR could be used to TLV and maybe even DXB to free up 1-2 A333s which would allow to open up new longhaul destinations they were talking about recently.


Why on earth would you want to use an A321LR on ZRH - TLV? It's a only a 1500 nm flight.

ZRH - DXB is 2500 nm, and a regular A321 with aux tank can do that.
 
Waterbomber
Posts: 849
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:15 pm

airbazar wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
Both the A321CEO and A319 CEO have the legs to operate a lot of routes in Africa from Europe in a low density configuration and with ACT's, which is half of the LR's picture. That's not the problem with Africa.
SN triangulates and operates the routes with non-daily frequency for a market that they've been building for 40 years together with its predecessor.


They do NOT have the range.
Most important markets in West Africa and beyond are outside the range of the CEO from ZRH and especially from BRU
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=zrh-nbo&R= ... =wls&DU=nm
This is where airlines like TP, IB, and TK have an advantage. They are just close enough to Africa to cover more of it with narrowbodies.
SN operates triangular routes because they have to use an A330 to reach those destinations, and some of those destinations just don't have the demand to fill an A330. So they combine it with another thin destination in order to be able to fill an A330.


The A321neo LR's ACT capacity was also available on the CEO. The former has higher MTOW and lower fuel burn but also a higher empty weight and higher initial weight. So if the A321 NEO LR has the legs to do 7000km missions in headwinds, you can cover all the way down to Cameroon from BRU with a CEO in the same pax configuration.

This has been discussed ad nauseum in the Belgian forums and SN still didnt do it. If you split an A330 in half, you have much less capacity than a A321 and SN cant even fill the A330s despite undercutting AFs CDG offer.

Its a volume problem. Africa doesnt offer the volume and thats why the capacity is low and yields are higher. There just isnt enough demand and any additinal player will destroy the market for everyone.

The East coast has seen some capacity increases and yields have crashed, spoiling it for everyone. I think that NBO must be one of the few long haul routes where LX isnt making money at the moment.
 
JulietteBravo
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:37 pm

reidar76 wrote:
LSZH34 wrote:
The A321LR could be used to TLV and maybe even DXB to free up 1-2 A333s which would allow to open up new longhaul destinations they were talking about recently.


Why on earth would you want to use an A321LR on ZRH - TLV? It's a only a 1500 nm flight.

ZRH - DXB is 2500 nm, and a regular A321 with aux tank can do that.



I think LSZH34 refers to LX' network: some of the TLV ops is done by A333, the DXB ops with A333 only. They could be free to fly a new route.

And as LX has a market for a lie flat or other more premium than "eurobusiness" C Class to TLV, DXB. Or not much First Class, like NBO-DAR, the A321neo LR (of a small sub fleet) could also be used to serve those routes.
 
r2rho
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Fri Aug 25, 2017 1:13 pm

This is where airlines like TP, IB, and TK have an advantage. They are just close enough to Africa to cover more of it with narrowbodies. SN operates triangular routes because they have to use an A330 to reach those destinations, and some of those destinations just don't have the demand to fill an A330.

I agree, and I'm surprised IB does not make more use of their geographical advantage beyond the handful two-class A319 they send out. IMO MAD should be IAG's Africa hub, with daily narrowbody flights to many destinations where other European competitors require a less-than-daily widebody. What the A319 does today, the A320NEO or A321NEOLR could do even better tomorrow.
 
Luisvalero
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Fri Aug 25, 2017 3:24 pm

r2rho wrote:
This is where airlines like TP, IB, and TK have an advantage. They are just close enough to Africa to cover more of it with narrowbodies. SN operates triangular routes because they have to use an A330 to reach those destinations, and some of those destinations just don't have the demand to fill an A330.

I agree, and I'm surprised IB does not make more use of their geographical advantage beyond the handful two-class A319 they send out. IMO MAD should be IAG's Africa hub, with daily narrowbody flights to many destinations where other European competitors require a less-than-daily widebody. What the A319 does today, the A320NEO or A321NEOLR could do even better tomorrow.


I Also think IB should be IAG hub to Africa, but competition is so high and most markets are Well covered. Demand from Europe/America to Africa is relatively small and is mainly served by AF, brussels Airlines, TK, RAM, KLM, TP. The main problem that faces MAD as a hub to Africa is that there's not enough demand that can support flights to Africa. For example IB flies daily to DKR, because of the big senegalese diaspora in Spain + connecting traffic from France, Belgium + is one of the biggest economic hubs of Africa and + is becoming a popular destination among spanish people. Malabo is served daily as Well because it has colonial ties with Spain and for obvious economic reasons. The other IB destination in Africa is JNB, Which it has been performing really good.
What I try to say is that IB is quite selective with its african network and I think it cant support flights to destinations such as Kinshasa, Libreville, Brazzaville, Douala, Abidjan (because the demand is from France and Belgium and not from Madrid). On the other hand TP is expanding significantly its african network with almost Two daily flights to DKR, additions such as ABJ, Lome.. TP and RAM are eating the african cake while IB focuses on its flagship business (Latín America)
 
airbazar
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Fri Aug 25, 2017 3:39 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
The A321neo LR's ACT capacity was also available on the CEO. The former has higher MTOW and lower fuel burn but also a higher empty weight and higher initial weight. So if the A321 NEO LR has the legs to do 7000km missions in headwinds, you can cover all the way down to Cameroon from BRU with a CEO in the same pax configuration.

You cannot cover all the way from BRU to Cameroon or DRC, or Burundi, and many others, with a CEO even with ACT's, unless of course you don't allow the passengers to bring any checked luggage and/or block a good amount of seats, which we know for African routes that's not a popular decision. And on the return, good luck getting off the ground from a 2,800m runway like DLA, in 80F and 90% humidity. That's where the increased thrust of the NEO comes in handy. IIRC the longest A321ceo route is HEL-TFS at ~2,560nm and that is never more than 30min from a viabe alternate. By contrast, BRU-DLA is 2,800+nm and the flight has to cross a vast amount of sand without a viable alternate. An airline like SN absolutely needs a NEO to reach some of these destinations beyond North Africa in an economical feasible way. Or they can stick to A330's.
 
rukundo
Posts: 234
Joined: Tue Jan 23, 2007 3:10 am

Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:02 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
It's wishful thinking here.
LX doesn't have the customer base nor excess capacity to consistently fill 180 to 200 seat A321's to Africa.

The routes to/from Africa are very thin, and with the level of competition that there is now, there is no room for new entrants.
There is no O&D from ZRH and LX has failed to make Cameroon work, transferring those routes to SN.
Look at East Africa where a true bloodbath has LX pricing NBO flights at firesale fares.


LX transefered the route to SN, probably because it was not neccesary to see two Europeans Airlines of the same alliance (and group Swiss and Brussels Airlines are in Lufthansa Group) serving DLA. It's a common practice, to avoid an overcapacity. In 2015, Lufthansa ended its route to Accra. They have resumed service to Nairobi, while in the same time Brussels Airlines ended Nairobi service and resumed Accra service

Swiss will do like Turkish Airlines or Qatar Airways do. They serve many routes in Africa, with narrowbodies. And point to point traffic from these destinations is probably lower than from Swiss to Africa.

About Turkish Airlines: Turkish Airlines profits in Africa, where others fear to fly [September 2017] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turk ... SKCN1BN1CZ

Swiss is making buisness in Africa, but they are more quiet than USA, China, France, India or Germania. In Rwanda, they have many projects in Education, hospitality, ICT & Pharma. Rwanda and Swiss signed an Air Service Agreement, this year

I won't be surprised that Swiss serves Kigali with its A321LRs, in the medium term, when the demand will be bigger.

Kigali is perfect destination for premium pax, with lots of Conference (3rd highest ranked MICE destination in Africa), many NGO & Diplomatic staff, high end tourism and biggest hotels chains have or will open hotels (Radisson, Sheraton, Mariott, Hilton,...).

Zurich is well linked to Europe and North America, with Swiss and Swiss partners (United Airlines, Air Canada, Lufthansa, Brussels Airlines, SAS, Austrian)
 
behramjee
Posts: 5101
Joined: Sat Aug 02, 2003 4:56 am

Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:43 pm

ZRH-KGL is a 7 hours 45 minutes flight so with the heavy baggage Africans like to carry there is no way an A321NEO-LR would be able to perform this flight with a full payload.
 
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TS-IOR
Posts: 3694
Joined: Mon Oct 08, 2001 9:44 pm

Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:54 pm

The A330 is good in size and range for YUL. A321NeoLR would be good for destinations in Western Africa, namely Dakar, maybe Douala if viable, Cotonou, Ouagadougou... even if, from a Lufthansa Group perspective i would see this area a natural focus for Brussels Airlines. Tehran IKA would make sense as well.
 
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aemoreira1981
Posts: 3605
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Re: Swiss studies A321LR business case

Fri Oct 20, 2017 8:17 pm

runway23 wrote:
It would certainly open up new possibilities:

-Routes that have lower amounts of premium traffic could for example get 2 daily frequencies instead of 1 (eg ZRH-YUL)
-Possibly less of a risk to open up new destinations from ZRH and possibly GVA if they so wish.
-Would enable LX to do Iran, Saudi Arabia and other middle east destinations.
-Would open up a large part of Africa

I think these last 2 points are they most attractive part of operating an A321LR for LX. I.e. Rebuilding the network that was cut when SR went bust. There are clearly many routes where a 333 is too large or too premium to operate profitably. 321LR would solve that problem. Whether LH Group want LX to operate those flights is another question...


That last part is key. However, I could see both SN and LX with a business case to operate the A321LR...perhaps to add more capacity or frequencies into Africa, as that is Brussels Airlines' bread and butter...its Africa network. For that, however, just a plain A321neo could work.

The airline that should be looking at the A321LR is Turkish Airlines. All of sub-equatorial Africa could be served with it except South Africa. They currently fly a B739ER to Tanzania (the world's longest 737 route).

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