mxaxai
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Wed Aug 23, 2017 12:33 pm

smi0006 wrote:
United Airline wrote:
Umm...... I would say the 12 A380s will be replaced by A380s. They serve USA and Europe very well.


I don't agree, A380 will use out their life with QF in Europe, US and eventually Asia. But I don't see the need for them moving forward as fragmentation increases and BNE/PER/MEL grow.

I think LAX is a big market but a 779 or A350-1 is a more efficient fit, especially as QF expand P2P. DFW,JFK,ORD all will fragment ex-MEL/SYD/BNE this is where the 778/A359 market is.

In Asia QF needs a 779/350-1 for HKG,SIN,HND. The A380s can serve theses routes as they age, but the twins are more efficient where range isn't required.

I think Europe (CDG,FRA,LHR) will be served ex-PER with 789, And LHR will eventually go non-stop ex-MEL/SYD/BNE. As such there is no need for 380s in addition to this.

I think there is a lot of hope and optimism in this idea. It is not just your idea - many others seem to share your POV. Just to put things into perspective:
SYD JFK 8,647 nm
SIN JFK 8,288 nm
SIN SFO 7,340 nm
SYD LHR 9,188 nm
PER LHR 7,829 nm
The longest routes flown by the A350 & 787 today are right at the edge of their capability and still fall 10-20% short of what would be needed for your fragmentation. Granted, the A350-900ULR and the 777-8 will arrive soon and may make that possible.

Next, ultra-long haul flights from airports with some 20 mio. PAX annually are wishful thinking. PER even counted just 13 mio last year. Going by that metric, Hamburg, Cleveland & Nashville or Hanoi would be connected to all major places on other continents today. Melbourne and Boston are just about equal in size. Not arguing against some routes being created eventually but there is certainly not the demand for all that "fragmentation". Sometimes hubs do work better.

Continuing with PER, I fail to see the advantage over any other hub. As a passenger flying, say, CDG-SYD I might as well stop in Dubai or Singapore or Hong Kong or anywhere else. Connecting someplace else even has the benefit of avoiding the inefficient ULH leg. Assuming both are flown with the same aircraft, CDG-DXB-SYD will be more efficient that CDG-PER-SYD. The only passengers benefitting from these new routes are those who truly fly nonstop. In this case, that would be a traveller from Paris to Perth or vice versa.

We will see more ultra-long haul routes in the future but many expectations in this thread are just too much.
 
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Wed Aug 23, 2017 12:40 pm

I smell an A350-1000 order in the mix. With the A350 deposits the overall deal could be quite attractive with an integrated fleet / cockpit rating. If I were Airbus I would work hard to put an integrated solution on the table and avoid QF taking on the 777x. We could see a mix of A359ULR and A35K. Plus 789. The A333 and A332 replacement is another question.
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mxaxai
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Wed Aug 23, 2017 12:40 pm

qf789 wrote:
What Qantas decide will eventually have to replace both the 744 and A380, the A350 in my opinion is too small whereas the 778 can replace the 744 and open the ULH routes and the 779 can eventually replace the A388's.

I wouldn't be surprised if the A333's are replaced with a 787-10


Arguing for significantly smaller (A380 -> 777-9) and larger (A333 -> 787-10) aircraft at the same time strikes me as unreasonable.

The only effect of exchanging the A380 for smaller twins on the routes to LAX & LHR will have is lower marketshare. There is so much competition that higher yields are extremely questionable.
 
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Polot
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Wed Aug 23, 2017 12:45 pm

mxaxai wrote:
Arguing for significantly smaller (A380 -> 777-9) and larger (A333 -> 787-10) aircraft at the same time strikes me as unreasonable.

QF's A380s and A333s are serving completely different markets. The A333 markets may need more capacity moving forward to accommodate general traffic growth, and the A380 markets may need less capacity per a flight as QF adds more flights to their A380 markets.

The only effect of exchanging the A380 for smaller twins on the routes to LAX & LHR will have is lower marketshare. There is so much competition that higher yields are extremely questionable.


Nonstop traffic get higher yields than connecting traffic. By offering more nonstop flights to more destinations QF can capture more of the high yield traffic from North America/Europe, while freeing up more seats for the local market where they are already present. With smaller aircraft QF doesn't have to discount as much to fill their planes in the face of heavy competition (who also have to keep more seats open to accommodate lower yielding connecting traffic).
 
mxaxai
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Wed Aug 23, 2017 12:53 pm

Polot wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
Arguing for significantly smaller (A380 -> 777-9) and larger (A333 -> 787-10) aircraft at the same time strikes me as unreasonable.

QF's A380s and A333s are serving completely different markets. The A333 markets may need more capacity moving forward due to general traffic growth, and the A380 markets may need less capacity per a flight as QF adds more flights to their A380 markets.

Then you are arguing for a higher frequency on ULH routes and a stagnant or lower frequency on shorter ones, assuming similar market growth. It is still contradictory. And why stop at the 777-9 and not go with an all 787-9 fleet and adjust frequencies as neccessary? The 777-9 does not make many destinations viable that weren't with the A380.
 
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:07 pm

mxaxai wrote:
Then you are arguing for a higher frequency on ULH routes and a stagnant or lower frequency on shorter ones, assuming similar market growth. It is still contradictory.


1) I am not advocating higher frequencies on ULH routes. I am advocating more routes period. DFW for example is only served nonstop from SYD. In the future QF may want to serve DFW from both SYD and MEL nonstop. QF may wish to start PER-LAX. That splits up traffic.

2) The 787-10 is not that much larger than the A333. Many of the routes that QF operates the A333 on are outside narrowbody range (e.g., BNE-HKG). Which means if you add a new frequency you have to add a minimum of ~230 seats (A332) to the market. 787-10s would allow them to add maybe 30 more seats to the market while having similar operating costs as its smaller sister. Right now if QF wants to add more seats to a A333 market w/o change in frequency the next option they have is a 747...which seats ~70 people more and costs far more to operate. The traffic in these shorter routes are generally already fragmented across the major cities in Australia (PER, BNE, MEL, SYD) unlike with North America.

And why stop at the 777-9 and not go with an all 787-9 fleet and adjust frequencies as neccessary?

Because that means QF would only be able to adjust capacity on routes in increments of ~250 (assuming they would have higher capacity versions than announced in that scenario).

mxaxai wrote:
The 777-9 does not make many destinations viable that weren't with the A380.

Of course it does (as does the A350-1000). The A380 is only extremely efficient if it is filled. The 779/A350-1000 give similar if not better per seat efficiency as the A380 while seating far less passengers (so easier to fill). There is a reason why Airbus is making all those adjustments with the A380plus to help increase typically seat counts, and trying to build a viable case for a A380neo.
 
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:19 pm

I have not seen anyone present the business case of what QF wants to achieve. Without knowing what they are trying to achieve how on earth is anyone able to say which aircraft would meet that business case best ?
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
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jetfuel
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:24 pm

Qantas are not ordering anything until the 787-9 is operating and they make an evaluation
Where's the passion gone out of the airline industry? The smell of jetfuel and the romance of taking a flight....
 
Cerecl
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:30 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
That's not true

It was the most popular choice, but at no point was it the "only" anything.
Airlines could, and did, opt for other 747s, A333s, A346s, A380s, etc.

I did say main tool and I think you know what I meant. A346 was not a realistic option for most airlines given the 8-9% disadvantage in fuel burn. A380 carved its own niche market and 747-8i sales were anaemic.
The point was the 77W was the clear favourite choice. Airlines will have 2 excellent planes to choose from to be its replacement
Fokker-100 SAAB 340 Q400 E190 717 737 738 763ER 787-8 772 77E 773 77W 747-400 747-400ER A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A343 A346 A359 A380
 
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:31 pm

Thank you Zeke,that is absolutely the point.I guess no one really knows for certain as Qantas have not laid it out in full.
But it does seem as if they are going for a very bold new long haul strategy.Whether they 'go for it' across multiple departures/destinations or put a couple of toes in the water first we will have to see.
But either way it's a hell of a change.But perhaps (thinking Europe) not doing anything is even worse!
With very large populations of Italian and Greek origin Australians perhaps it can work (plus U.K. Of course).
 
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:56 pm

Boeing778X wrote:

What makes the 777X better? New wings, new engines, new surfaces, new interior, new avionics, enhances aerodynamics, superior payload, superior range...


Comparing the 777X and A350, I doubt there will be much, if any, advantage to either from wings, interior or avionics since both will be of the current generation. The engines will be very slightly in favour of the 777X, and the aerodynamics very slightly infavour of the A350.

If QF would need to pay cancellation fees, which would seem likely to me, that would be the deciding factor to swing this order in favour of the A350. Otherwise I would have thought the two planes would be pretty close in this RFP.

350helmi
 
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Wed Aug 23, 2017 2:09 pm

Quint1 wrote:
The following source reports that Qantas executives are apparantly talking with Airbus about converting the 8 postponed A380 to A350-900ULR's.

(https://www.ausbt.com.au/community/view ... 350-900ulr)

Thoughts on this? I thought the 777-8 would have the edge in a potential ULH aircraft order due to its greater payload capabilities, but a conversion would be a good way to get rid of the A380's in the orderbook and it might even open up possibilities for regular A350's to come in and fly some Asian routes.

I suspect converting the order would be an easier way to not ever have to take delivery of more A-380's and the A-350's would serve a good purpose.
 
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Wed Aug 23, 2017 7:40 pm

Boeing778X wrote:
QF doesn't need the seats. The aircraft will be used for ULH flights, therefore, a lower density cabin will be needed, and on a flight that long, I seriously doubt QF would use 10Y.

Look at their 789s - 9Y
AS350, B733/4/7/8, B744/8, B762/3, B77E/L/W, B789, A319, A320, A321, A332, A346, A380, AT73/5/6, Q300, Q400, CR2/7, E190, S340, B1900C/D, E110 (E for epic)
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Wed Aug 23, 2017 8:04 pm

Ugly51 wrote:
Time to move on my friend. Whats in the past is history. The A359 and A35K can work for QANTAS.


Sure they can. Just not in the minds of some a.netters.

mariner
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ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:30 pm

LamboAston wrote:
Boeing778X wrote:
QF doesn't need the seats. The aircraft will be used for ULH flights, therefore, a lower density cabin will be needed, and on a flight that long, I seriously doubt QF would use 10Y.

Look at their 789s - 9Y


While they don't need the capacity as such these aircraft will be used on routes like LAX-MEL where 215ish seats would be to low with 8 abreast. May as well fill the extra seats where you can with what is the industry norm.
 
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:00 am

parapente wrote:
Thank you Zeke,that is absolutely the point.I guess no one really knows for certain as Qantas have not laid it out in full.
But it does seem as if they are going for a very bold new long haul strategy.Whether they 'go for it' across multiple departures/destinations or put a couple of toes in the water first we will have to see.
But either way it's a hell of a change.But perhaps (thinking Europe) not doing anything is even worse!
With very large populations of Italian and Greek origin Australians perhaps it can work (plus U.K. Of course).



The qantas investor presentation lays out their long term strategy quite well.

QF to focus on higher yielding Australian customers, mainly corporates, to get the non stop to main business centres. And link to partners hubs.

JQ to focus on tourist destinations.

If you look where Australians go on business trips it's mainly LHR, SIN, HKG, AKL, NRT, NYC, LAX and SFO. DFW is the super connector in the USA.
 
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:08 am

redroo wrote:
parapente wrote:
Thank you Zeke,that is absolutely the point.I guess no one really knows for certain as Qantas have not laid it out in full.
But it does seem as if they are going for a very bold new long haul strategy.Whether they 'go for it' across multiple departures/destinations or put a couple of toes in the water first we will have to see.
But either way it's a hell of a change.But perhaps (thinking Europe) not doing anything is even worse!
With very large populations of Italian and Greek origin Australians perhaps it can work (plus U.K. Of course).



The qantas investor presentation lays out their long term strategy quite well.

QF to focus on higher yielding Australian customers, mainly corporates, to get the non stop to main business centres. And link to partners hubs.

JQ to focus on tourist destinations.

If you look where Australians go on business trips it's mainly LHR, SIN, HKG, AKL, NRT, NYC, LAX and SFO. DFW is the super connector in the USA.


So essentially QF is going to keep the status quo of their current network whilst integrating smaller more efficient aircraft. I don't care what any data shows, SYD-JFK is a massive stretch with any aircraft and seems unlikely.
 
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:08 am

EK413 wrote:
rbavfan wrote:
EK413 wrote:

It's not a done deal and I'm sure QF management are not foolish enough to repeat ground hog day. AJ has come out already clearly stating the A380 was the wrong aircraft.

EK413



So you must be a Boeing only fan based on this an your SQ trading a350's out for 778/779. Last I heard the A350ULR will be the JFK-SIN plane. Does not seem like they are getting rid of A350's.


Read again SQ traded in A340's for B777's.

EK413


I read again.

EK413 wrote:
It's possible QF will pull a SQ by ordering the A350 & run back to Boeing to work out a sweeter deal swapping the A350's for B778/9's? Makes sense considering A350's would be far easy to offload to Boeing than A3Whales.

EK413
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:31 am

RL777 wrote:
I don't care what any data shows, SYD-JFK is a massive stretch with any aircraft and seems unlikely.

Perhaps.

But then again, the fact that they fly there at all is rather unlikely... considering that they could just as easily codeshare on any of AA's 18trillion nonstops to NYC from LAX/SFO/DFW, and therefore not spend the fuel (nor add the cycles) by flying transcon with half-empty widebodies.

So who knows, a nonstop too may someday defy the odds.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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EK413
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:36 am

coolian2 wrote:
EK413 wrote:
rbavfan wrote:


So you must be a Boeing only fan based on this an your SQ trading a350's out for 778/779. Last I heard the A350ULR will be the JFK-SIN plane. Does not seem like they are getting rid of A350's.


Read again SQ traded in A340's for B777's.

EK413


I read again.

EK413 wrote:
It's possible QF will pull a SQ by ordering the A350 & run back to Boeing to work out a sweeter deal swapping the A350's for B778/9's? Makes sense considering A350's would be far easy to offload to Boeing than A3Whales.

EK413


kelvin933 wrote:
RalXWB wrote:
EK413 wrote:
It's possible QF will pull a SQ by ordering the A350 & run back to Boeing to work out a sweeter deal swapping the A350's for B778/9's? Makes sense considering A350's would be far easy to offload to Boeing than A3Whales.

EK413


When did Singapore swap 350s for 777s?

It did not happen, he is talking about the A340-300 switch


EK413 wrote:
AsiaTravel wrote:
EK413 wrote:
It's possible QF will pull a SQ by ordering the A350 & run back to Boeing to work out a sweeter deal swapping the A350's for B778/9's? Makes sense considering A350's would be far easy to offload to Boeing than A3Whales.

EK413


To my knowledge SQ 77X order wasn't a swap of A350s but rather an additional order. Maybe you can clear that point?


Correct, SQ traded in A340's in favour of B777's.

viewtopic.php?t=164943

EK413


Here...

EK413
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zeke
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:42 am

LAX772LR wrote:
But then again, the fact that they fly there at all is rather unlikely... considering that they could just as easily codeshare on any of AA's 18trillion nonstops to NYC from LAX/SFO/DFW, and therefore not spend the fuel (nor add the cycles) by flying transcon with half-empty widebodies.


The fact they are not code sharing is more of an indication of how poor AA is domestically compared to their own product. There is no competition domestically in the US, it is a protected market which nickel and dimes its customers for high fees with low service.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Thu Aug 24, 2017 2:24 am

zeke wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
But then again, the fact that they fly there at all is rather unlikely... considering that they could just as easily codeshare on any of AA's 18trillion nonstops to NYC from LAX/SFO/DFW, and therefore not spend the fuel (nor add the cycles) by flying transcon with half-empty widebodies.


The fact they are not code sharing is more of an indication of how poor AA is domestically compared to their own product. There is no competition domestically in the US, it is a protected market which nickel and dimes its customers for high fees with low service.


Do QF premium cabin passengers qualify for AA's Flagship Transcon services on LAX/SFO-JFK? If they do, then thy will have lie-flat seats in First and Business Class as well as access to the International First and Business Lounges.
 
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Thu Aug 24, 2017 2:28 am

Hey guys,
This possible swap is just one of many options available to QF. There's lots at play here - financial and technical variables - and no clear outcome can be determined yet by us observers. A simple A380 deposits > A350 order IS possible of course but I think it is much more complicated than that. Without a doubt in my mind QF will only pick a type that will ABSOLUTELY do what it wants - that is non-stop SYD-LHR and SYD-JFK with around 300 passengers/crew onboard economically. If neither type can do that, I don't think that QF will order anything. If one type does and the other doesn't, I believe that QF will order that type. Financial variables will of course come into it but for this fleet decision at least, unless the two types have successfully met technical requirements and are 'neck and neck', I can't see the financial side overruling the technical side.
Cheers,
Bunumuring
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redroo
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Thu Aug 24, 2017 2:35 am

I've done the old QF107 to JFK and worked with many people who did and still do. QF all the way is preferred by many. It's as stress less as you can make it... without going completely non stop.
 
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:09 am

Umm the A380s serve USA and Europe very well so I won't rule out a direct replacement with newer versions A380 for the 12 A380s they have when it comes to replacement. That will be many years later from now
 
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:51 am

United Airline wrote:
Umm the A380s serve USA and Europe very well so I won't rule out a direct replacement with newer versions A380 for the 12 A380s they have when it comes to replacement. That will be many years later from now


You keep saying that but the market is being more fragmented with more point to point with smaller aircraft, the A380 serves the routes it flies well enough but more flights ex BNE/MEL to the likes of SFO/DFW in future meaning smaller aircraft ex SYD aswell.
 
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Thu Aug 24, 2017 8:53 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
United Airline wrote:
Umm the A380s serve USA and Europe very well so I won't rule out a direct replacement with newer versions A380 for the 12 A380s they have when it comes to replacement. That will be many years later from now


You keep saying that but the market is being more fragmented with more point to point with smaller aircraft, the A380 serves the routes it flies well enough but more flights ex BNE/MEL to the likes of SFO/DFW in future meaning smaller aircraft ex SYD aswell.


Agreed 100%.

With QF tapping into markets where a B744/A380 is overkill will mean eventually down the line QF will reduce capacity out of SYD. Which as a result would make the A380 obsolete for QF long haul services ex SYD & MEL.

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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:08 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Yields might be up, but fares are down: 2016 was the cheapest year to fly within the USA since 2009, when there were a lot more airlines and the market was more fractional.


IATA stats have been making the point for years now, yield is disproportionately higher than the rest of the world, that is a fact (I have seen it 5 times higher than Europe and Asia/Pacific).

The domestic hard and soft product is inferior, that is also a fact. Just need to compare the hard and soft product US airlines have when flying against international competition, it is not the product they use domestically. Then then they b... and moan when they don't make the same yield internationally against competition, in reality that is the yield they would get if there was true open competition.

But that is the the USA, the bastion of free trade and competition, as long as it is to their advantage.

I don't blame QF at all for not wanting to associate their brand and product with AA on the transcontinental flights. Plus the other reasons I listed earlier for a passenger to connect domestically rather than transit internationally.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
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Polot
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:39 am

Uhhh, QF does code share on AA's trans cons flights, along with of course many of AA's other domestic flights. Why do you think QF flies to DFW, to serve the vast Dallas to Australia market? LOL.

Take a look at QF3095 for example...

Saying QF won't codeshare because of AA's service is ridiculous. They codeshare on many of AA's transcons that don't even get special seats (see QF4528). LAX-JFK codeshares are limited because QF offers their own flight that obviously QF would like their passengers to take, and AA has limited capacity on their A321T to take on much connecting traffic and would prefer carrying local pax.

PS Zeke: you might want to take a peek at the hard product on AA's A321Ts.
 
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:00 am

qf789

travelhound

Thanks for the info. So that pretty much rules out QF doing an SQ with their A380s. Looks like they're there to stay.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:44 pm

zeke wrote:
IATA stats have been making the point for years now, yield is disproportionately higher than the rest of the world, that is a fact (I have seen it 5 times higher than Europe and Asia/Pacific).

Pay attention, I didn't dispute that. I simply said that that alone doesn't tell the whole story about the nature of domestic competition: also a fact.


zeke wrote:
Just need to compare the hard and soft product US airlines have when flying against international competition, it is not the product they use domestically.

Duh, because the domestic market won't support it when offered. You're saying this as if that hasn't been tried.


zeke wrote:
But that is the the USA, the bastion of free trade and competition, as long as it is to their advantage.

Not the USA's fault if dumbass countries are willing to do so when it isn't to their advantage. :razz:


zeke wrote:
I don't blame QF

Has anyone?

zeke wrote:
t all for not wanting to associate their brand and product with AA on the transcontinental flights.

You do realize that QF does put its pax on AA, extensively, do you not? It's only ONE route where they don't, and only for ONE roundtrip frequency at that.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Thu Sep 07, 2017 12:18 pm

Boeing778X wrote:

It's also has a common type rating with the 787, with a common engine, common avionics, and training for pilots on both would be inexpensive.



So does the A350 with the A380 and A330 fleets that QF operates. Hence I doubt commonality will convince QF to select the 777-8 over the A350.

Also note that GE9X is a completely new engine, it has probably close to zero commonality with the GEnx powerplant. Just because both engines have the same manufacturer doesn't mean they share parts.
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:01 pm

Tend to agree with the above. A359ULR looking likely. Possible A35K order as and when needed.
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:08 pm

travelhound wrote:
For me a question revolves around why Airbus have delivery slots available in 2019 to offer QANTAS. I would have thought there would have been other airlines higher up in the pecking order ready to take any slots that become available.

If A350 slots are becoming available in the near term, than this further raises the question about underlying demand for the A350.


With a backlog of 700 aircraft, I assume you're making a little joke.

Airbus has a sales strategy of overselling production slots as it assumes some carriers will defer deliveries. So even when 2019 is sold out, Airbus offers Qantas production slots in 2019 because it anticipates some customers will most likely defer deliveries. We even had a topic on this sales strategy. With a pool of 700 aircraft in backlog, Airbus can easily shuffle some production slots.
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:51 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
travelhound wrote:


Airbus has a sales strategy of overselling production slots as it assumes some carriers will defer deliveries



An latest example, UA, changed and postponed its order to 2022. I dont know when UA should have exactly recived its first frame but sometime late 2018 so there are your slots, as Karel explained
 
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Thu Sep 07, 2017 5:22 pm

...but, you would think there would be other airlines higher up in the pecking order.

I can understand Airbus overselling slots over the longer term, but to be over selling slots for deliveries in two years time just doesn't make any sense.
 
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:04 pm

SYD-JFK makes sense on QF. Decent amount of pax. A359ULR could potentially pull that off.

But - how would QF make SYD-ORD work without cannibalizing SYD-DFW? I mean, don't a good bulk of passengers connect from ORD to SYD via DFW?

I'd say SYD-YVR year round makes more sense.
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:13 pm

travelhound wrote:
...but, you would think there would be other airlines higher up in the pecking order.


New customers are important too, thus it would be wise to hold back a handful production slots as long as possible.

Airbus has done it before:

I can understand Airbus overselling slots over the longer term, but to be over selling slots for deliveries in two years time just doesn't make any sense.


When Delta signed up for the A350 in late 2014, all production slots for 2017 were sold out. And yet, DL is getting 5 A350s in 2017. Airbus gambled some customers would defer deliveries, and they were right.
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:19 pm

travelhound wrote:
I can understand Airbus overselling slots over the longer term, but to be over selling slots for deliveries in two years time just doesn't make any sense.


Overbooking is a word that should sound familiar...
 
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Thu Sep 07, 2017 9:49 pm

As with UA, follow the money.
QF has money tied up in Airbus via their A380 order.
QF will be getting additional Airbus a/c, if they have to redesign routes to accommodate the a/c ordered so bit it. One thing we can be certain of, when the a/c is ordered it will be the perfect a/c for the QF network.
 
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:33 am

TryToFlySomeday wrote:
SYD-JFK makes sense on QF. Decent amount of pax. A359ULR could potentially pull that off.

But - how would QF make SYD-ORD work without cannibalizing SYD-DFW? I mean, don't a good bulk of passengers connect from ORD to SYD via DFW?

I'd say SYD-YVR year round makes more sense.


Not sure how much ORD would cannibalize DFW if both to SYD are 789. DFW pulls in heavily from Florida and DC from what I read. Most ORD people transit in LAX to get to SYD and MEL.

SYD-ORD opens up more flights to the Midwest, Northeast, and Canada (along with a large city - even if run by incompetents).

Will QF start ORD before NZ? I think NZ at ORD is a bigger threat to QF than QF cannibalizing DFW.
 
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Fri Sep 08, 2017 2:10 am

travelhound wrote:
...but, you would think there would be other airlines higher up in the pecking order.

They may want to stick to their original delivery schedule rather that take their deliveries earlier.

travelhound wrote:
I can understand Airbus overselling slots over the longer term, but to be over selling slots for deliveries in two years time just doesn't make any sense.
Production planning isn't an exact science if a manufacturer wishes to offer flexibility to its customers. Airbus has some historical data and can do some educated guesses as to how much they can oversell each year's production slots. Two years is still some time away and they have sufficient time to shuffle slots around or even produce an extra frame or two, if need be.
 
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:24 pm

CHI2DFW wrote:
TryToFlySomeday wrote:
SYD-JFK makes sense on QF. Decent amount of pax. A359ULR could potentially pull that off.

But - how would QF make SYD-ORD work without cannibalizing SYD-DFW? I mean, don't a good bulk of passengers connect from ORD to SYD via DFW?

I'd say SYD-YVR year round makes more sense.


Not sure how much ORD would cannibalize DFW if both to SYD are 789. DFW pulls in heavily from Florida and DC from what I read. Most ORD people transit in LAX to get to SYD and MEL.

SYD-ORD opens up more flights to the Midwest, Northeast, and Canada (along with a large city - even if run by incompetents).

Will QF start ORD before NZ? I think NZ at ORD is a bigger threat to QF than QF cannibalizing DFW.


Isn't QF to DFW A380 right now though? Although, yes I see the point that they might downgauge to 789 because of the new IAH-SYD flight on UA.
Would NZ and QF be able to coexist at ORD, like UA and AA do? Or not big enough of a market? I'm always a bit of a skeptic when it comes to ORD considering how much new airlines have shifted away from ORD in favor of DFW, IAH, BOS, LAX, SFO, JFK - and even IND as of recently. (IND took the old DL ORD-CDG and made it into IND-CDG flight.)
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:05 am

TryToFlySomeday wrote:
CHI2DFW wrote:
TryToFlySomeday wrote:
SYD-JFK makes sense on QF. Decent amount of pax. A359ULR could potentially pull that off.

But - how would QF make SYD-ORD work without cannibalizing SYD-DFW? I mean, don't a good bulk of passengers connect from ORD to SYD via DFW?

I'd say SYD-YVR year round makes more sense.


Not sure how much ORD would cannibalize DFW if both to SYD are 789. DFW pulls in heavily from Florida and DC from what I read. Most ORD people transit in LAX to get to SYD and MEL.

SYD-ORD opens up more flights to the Midwest, Northeast, and Canada (along with a large city - even if run by incompetents).

Will QF start ORD before NZ? I think NZ at ORD is a bigger threat to QF than QF cannibalizing DFW.


Isn't QF to DFW A380 right now though? Although, yes I see the point that they might downgauge to 789 because of the new IAH-SYD flight on UA.
Would NZ and QF be able to coexist at ORD, like UA and AA do? Or not big enough of a market? I'm always a bit of a skeptic when it comes to ORD considering how much new airlines have shifted away from ORD in favor of DFW, IAH, BOS, LAX, SFO, JFK - and even IND as of recently. (IND took the old DL ORD-CDG and made it into IND-CDG flight.)


Huh? DL did not move ORD-CDG to IND, AF is now running the flight year round now. DL only ran this in winter, it's not a route move.

AA moved DUS to BCN and is adding VCE. Even with T-5 maxed out, FI, WW, BR, and DY have added / announced ORD. BA is bringing in the whale next year. Also, T-5 is adding 9 new gates.

AA is adding 5 more Eagle gates and the terminal redevelopment is being planned. UA and AA are upgauging flights. Traffic is pushing 80M per year.

Not sure where this avoiding ORD is coming from (except Detroit fans). ORD is out of gates.

Why would QF / NZ pick BOS over ORD? ORD is a hub for OneWorld and Star and offers many connections.
 
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Sat Sep 09, 2017 2:43 am

TryToFlySomeday wrote:
CHI2DFW wrote:
TryToFlySomeday wrote:
SYD-JFK makes sense on QF. Decent amount of pax. A359ULR could potentially pull that off.

But - how would QF make SYD-ORD work without cannibalizing SYD-DFW? I mean, don't a good bulk of passengers connect from ORD to SYD via DFW?

I'd say SYD-YVR year round makes more sense.

[quote]
Not sure how much ORD would cannibalize DFW if both to SYD are 789. DFW pulls in heavily from Florida and DC from what I read. Most ORD people transit in LAX to get to SYD and MEL.

Isn't QF to DFW A380 right now though? Although, yes I see the point that they might downgauge to 789 because of the new IAH-SYD flight on UA.
Would NZ and QF be able to coexist at ORD, like UA and AA do? Or not big enough of a market? I'm always a bit of a skeptic when it comes to ORD considering how much new airlines have shifted away from ORD in favor of DFW, IAH, BOS, LAX, SFO, JFK - and even IND as of recently. (IND took the old DL ORD-CDG and made it into IND-CDG flight.)[/quote I
I doubt UA new service will lead to a down gauge of SYD-DFW, by its self. The view down here is that QF may/will introduce MEL-DFW and/or BNE-DFW when they have enough B789s. That may very well lead to a SYD-DFW down guage, but it may not, depending on growth.

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QF CEO on A380 Plus: "I think it would take a very drunken night for me to order that."

Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:32 am

In a recent thread, an a.net member brought up the idea of QF again taking up its A380 options.

I ran across https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... 0s-443685/ which says:

"We keep on pushing them out. I think our intention is not to take those aircraft," says Joyce.

So nothing encouraging at all about taking the 8 A380s already deferred.

About the proposed A380 Plus:

When asked during a lecture at the Royal Aeronautical Society about potential orders for any of Airbus's A380 development studies, such as the A380plus, he said: "I think it would take a very drunken night for me to order that."

Humorous, but also very honest statement, IMHO.

And, overall, why "no" to more A380s:

Joyce says that while there are certain markets where "you can fill an A380", there are others where the airline's 484-seaters are too large.

A new-generation twinjet is lower risk, allows year-round frequencies on less-dense routes, and offers greater efficiency, he adds.

"We could fly two 787s [together] with two sets of pilots and two take-offs and landings, and it is cheaper to do that than an A380 flying the same route – the economics of the new technology are that much better."

Seems pretty clear that the current fleet will be it for QF on the A380 for the foreseeable future.
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Re: Rumor: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR

Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:24 am

At the opening of the Singapore air show, Airbus made the following statement:

On Qantas' 'Project Sunrise' challenge of non-stop Sydney-NY/London flights, Obe says slightly tweaked ULR could make goal. 'be delighted to count Qantas as 2nd [A350XWB-900] ULR customer" #avgeek


https://twitter.com/RAeSTimR/status/960346853316345856

It's interesting that both Boeing and Airbus are willing to tweak their ULR aircraft for a relative small order.
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Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:49 am

Boeing778X wrote:
What makes the 777X better? New wings, new engines, new surfaces, new interior, new avionics, enhances aerodynamics, superior payload, superior range...


"Ars*hbombe ins PR Müsli." :-)

all relative the old 777. The 777X is a massively heavy bird. payload relative OEW is smaller.
That means the "fantastic" number only ring up when the plane is full.

Similar to the 787. Super duper new plane relative the 767. Much less so against Airbus offering.
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parapente
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Re: Rumor: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR

Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:00 am

I guess it's what 'slightly tweaked' means really.Obviously the a/c will get the new winglets (would have anyway).Engines might get a small pip of some sort.But again would probably be incorporated into the run of mill a/c.Extra ACT's? And slightly beefed up rating on MLG?Just guessing really.
Be very surprised if it was anything major.
 
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Re: Rumor: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR

Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:05 am

Let.s see what happens..both Boeing and Airbus are still working on the Qantas case.They will order a plane that will fit best..Both planes are cutting edge technology but the 777-8 is bigger than the A350 ULR. Next month Qantas starts with Perth-London with the 787-9..The performance of the 787 on that route will tell Qantas a lot about future ULH routes..Then we know what they will order in the future.

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