smi0006 wrote:United Airline wrote:Umm...... I would say the 12 A380s will be replaced by A380s. They serve USA and Europe very well.
I don't agree, A380 will use out their life with QF in Europe, US and eventually Asia. But I don't see the need for them moving forward as fragmentation increases and BNE/PER/MEL grow.
I think LAX is a big market but a 779 or A350-1 is a more efficient fit, especially as QF expand P2P. DFW,JFK,ORD all will fragment ex-MEL/SYD/BNE this is where the 778/A359 market is.
In Asia QF needs a 779/350-1 for HKG,SIN,HND. The A380s can serve theses routes as they age, but the twins are more efficient where range isn't required.
I think Europe (CDG,FRA,LHR) will be served ex-PER with 789, And LHR will eventually go non-stop ex-MEL/SYD/BNE. As such there is no need for 380s in addition to this.
I think there is a lot of hope and optimism in this idea. It is not just your idea - many others seem to share your POV. Just to put things into perspective:
SYD JFK 8,647 nm
SIN JFK 8,288 nm
SIN SFO 7,340 nm
SYD LHR 9,188 nm
PER LHR 7,829 nm
The longest routes flown by the A350 & 787 today are right at the edge of their capability and still fall 10-20% short of what would be needed for your fragmentation. Granted, the A350-900ULR and the 777-8 will arrive soon and may make that possible.
Next, ultra-long haul flights from airports with some 20 mio. PAX annually are wishful thinking. PER even counted just 13 mio last year. Going by that metric, Hamburg, Cleveland & Nashville or Hanoi would be connected to all major places on other continents today. Melbourne and Boston are just about equal in size. Not arguing against some routes being created eventually but there is certainly not the demand for all that "fragmentation". Sometimes hubs do work better.
Continuing with PER, I fail to see the advantage over any other hub. As a passenger flying, say, CDG-SYD I might as well stop in Dubai or Singapore or Hong Kong or anywhere else. Connecting someplace else even has the benefit of avoiding the inefficient ULH leg. Assuming both are flown with the same aircraft, CDG-DXB-SYD will be more efficient that CDG-PER-SYD. The only passengers benefitting from these new routes are those who truly fly nonstop. In this case, that would be a traveller from Paris to Perth or vice versa.
We will see more ultra-long haul routes in the future but many expectations in this thread are just too much.