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Stitch
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:52 pm

mig17 wrote:
Jayafe wrote:
A380Neo / A380Neo-Combi?

Exactly what I was thinking ... There is no way neither A359 nor 778 can fit 300 "prenium" seats while Qantas density on other aircrafts is rather "low" (236 on 789 or 484 on A388).


Using the 787-9 as the baseline, the A350-900ULR can take three more rows of Economy than the 787-9, so that would be 42J | 28W | 196Y for a total of 266. The 777-8 adds another meter to the A350-900ULR and can go 10-abreast in Economy and 8-abreast in Premium Economy with the same seats as the A350 and 787 at 9/7. So that would be 42J | 32W | 210Y which would be 284. I don't see QF going 2+2+2 in Business due to the desire to preserve direct-aisle access, but it would be an option on the 777 which would raise J to 64 and get you to 306.
Last edited by Stitch on Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Polot
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:54 pm

mig17 wrote:
Jayafe wrote:
A380Neo / A380Neo-Combi?

Exactly what I was thinking ...
There is no way neither A359 nor 778 can fit 300 "prenium" seats while Qantas density on other aircrafts is rather "low" (236 on 789 or 484 on A388).

The 778 can probably do it. BA sits 297 in their 4 class 77Ws. The 77W is slightly longer than the 778 but BA's are 9Y when I suspect QF would stick with 10Y on the 778 (which would have similar comfort level to 9Y on the A350 and both better than the 789 which QF is happily putting on PER-LHR). Making BA's 77Ws 10Y would add about 15-20 seats fwiw.

It will depend on how dense/space efficient the J and F seats are.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:03 pm

airzona11 wrote:
But as noted above, people are paying a premium to fly without the tech stop or any stop. They aren't being forced to endure. They are paying more to get there faster.

incitatus wrote:
There is already plenty of one-stops. Do you really think people preferring the one-stop service would choose a desolate airport to connect instead of Dubai?


Not denying any of your points, but two-hour tech stop(not one-stop) at a remote leisure airport(not at a congested hub), fresh food and clean cabin and lavs, any day beats 42-hour stale pre-landing snack, filled lavs, and smelly cabin.

Just my general opinion about ULH flights not specific to QANTAS..
All posts are just opinions.
 
mig17
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:04 pm

It is possible on the 778, but like you both said, that means no F, and 10Y. Pretty crowded for a prenium product considering SYD-LHR or JFK would be the jewels of the kangourou's crown.
Last edited by mig17 on Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Polot
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:13 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Not denying any of your points, but two-hour tech stop(not one-stop) at a remote leisure airport(not at a congested hub), fresh food and clean cabin and lavs, any day beats 42-hour stale pre-landing snack, filled lavs, and smelly cabin.

I mean smell is only an issue for the people walking onto the cabin after the flight. You as a passenger will be completely nose blind to how the cabin smells.
mig17 wrote:
It is possible on the 778, but like you both said, that means no F, and 10Y. Pretty crowded for a prenium product considering SYD-LHR or JFK would be the jewels of the crown.

The configuration I was comparing it to (BA's 4 class 77W), has 14 F seats. 18" seats on the 777X is possible with 10Y, 1.5" armrests, and ~17.5" aisles, about equivalent with the A350 (which are 18" 9Y with 1.5" armrests and 18" aisles).

Note that current 777 10Y layouts are usually ~17" with 2" armrests and 17" aisles.
 
mig17
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:26 pm

And with more than 4 meters less than the 77W, the 778 will fit max 280 seats in the "same" config. Not 300.
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KrustyTheKlown
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:34 pm

Besides Eastern Oceania to North Atlantic I can only imagine that planes with such specifications could be used for East Asia to South America and US-West coast to South Africa routes.
 
Bald1983
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:34 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
I really don't see a huge demand for this that is willing to pay a premium. I wouldn't even want to get on that plane, a leg stretch in LAX is nice on such a long flight regardless of class. Can you imagine basic economy on that flight, awful.


If there are business people in Sydney needing to get to New York or London, I suspect they would pay a premium, to go non-stop. It would still be less time then stopping at LAX or SFO and changing planes, after going through customs. It would beat stopping at Perth or the Middle East. It would really simply come down to an aircraft that could fly the distance, carrying enough load to make the trip profitable. There was a time Boeing flew a 777-200 LR from Hong Kong to London, on a demonstration flight, crossing the Pacific, the United States, and the Atlantic to get there. However, if I recall the details, only forty five passengers were on board, they were limited on the weight of their carry on and, I believe they towed the plane to the runway before the engine start.
 
redroo
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Thu Aug 24, 2017 8:45 pm

Qantas knows it's customers and what they want. These flights are for Australians going to London and New York. Not Londoners and New Yorks coming to Sydney or Melbourne, if that makes sense.

I know people who do European business trips in a week. I know people who have "commuted" to London from Sydney every two weeks. I've done it a bit for work myself. To these people the stop is a waste of time. Better to leave Sydney a few hours later than schlep through security in the desert in the middle of the night.

A good example of the mindset. In the old days when the QF1 kangaroo-ed through Bangkok. The layover was a mere 90 minutes. Most people got off the plane walked into the terminal and went straight back to the gate ready to get going again.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Thu Aug 24, 2017 8:46 pm

Frankly, I see this more about Joyce creating PR than a serious business case to operate such ULH flights.

Its pretty obvious the economics will be quite marginal at best and who knows what the global economy and fuel prices will be in 2022 to support such service.

Frankly, I would never want to take such a flight. I think a 15-hour journey from LAX to Australia is about as far as I would like to go nonstop and that is in business class. Could never imagine doing longer especially in economy. I prefer the opportunity to stop, breathe some outside air, take a walk, hang out in a lounge etc.
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Stitch
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:32 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Frankly, I see this more about Joyce creating PR than a serious business case to operate such ULH flights. Its pretty obvious the economics will be quite marginal at best and who knows what the global economy and fuel prices will be in 2022 to support such service.


So perhaps one of the more important components of the RFP will be not which plane performs better on the ULH portion, but the one that performs better on shorter stage lengths with the assumption that these ULH services will be short-lived and the frames re-deployed on "traditional routes". This might explain why they are interested in 300 seats, as shorter stage lengths would not need to block seats in either direction. I could see these planes replacing the 747-400ER fleet, for example, on long - but not ultra-long - missions.
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:35 pm

Stitch wrote:
Using the 787-9 as the baseline, the A350-900ULR can take three more rows of Economy than the 787-9, so that would be 42J | 28W | 196Y for a total of 266. The 777-8 adds another meter to the A350-900ULR and can go 10-abreast in Economy and 8-abreast in Premium Economy with the same seats as the A350 and 787 at 9/7. So that would be 42J | 32W | 210Y which would be 284. I don't see QF going 2+2+2 in Business due to the desire to preserve direct-aisle access, but it would be an option on the 777 which would raise J to 64 and get you to 306.


Polot wrote:
The 778 can probably do it. BA sits 297 in their 4 class 77Ws. The 77W is slightly longer than the 778 but BA's are 9Y when I suspect QF would stick with 10Y on the 778 (which would have similar comfort level to 9Y on the A350 and both better than the 789 which QF is happily putting on PER-LHR). Making BA's 77Ws 10Y would add about 15-20 seats fwiw.

It will depend on how dense/space efficient the J and F seats are.


The cabin configuration will also depend on the payload restriction on that route.

The westbound trip seems restricted to ~35t payload, equaling some 280 passengers and bags. It's probably going to be a bit less as the aircraft will have a rather high DOW to take extra foods and drinks for this long journey, rest areas and additional crew etc.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
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XAM2175
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:43 pm

Bald1983 wrote:
There was a time Boeing flew a 777-200 LR from Hong Kong to London, on a demonstration flight, crossing the Pacific, the United States, and the Atlantic to get there. However, if I recall the details, only forty five passengers were on board, they were limited on the weight of their carry on and, I believe they towed the plane to the runway before the engine start.


The even-more pertinent example here is one QF made themselves with B747-438 VH-OJA on it's delivery flight in 1989 - LHR to SYD non-stop in just over 20 hours... mostly fitted-out but carrying only about 20 "passengers", and benefiting from an engines-out tow and a special higher-density blend of fuel.

To now be talking about such sectors in terms of "only 250-odd" passengers is still a bit hard for me to get my head around!
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:46 pm

Stitch wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
Frankly, I see this more about Joyce creating PR than a serious business case to operate such ULH flights. Its pretty obvious the economics will be quite marginal at best and who knows what the global economy and fuel prices will be in 2022 to support such service.


So perhaps one of the more important components of the RFP will be not which plane performs better on the ULH portion, but the one that performs better on shorter stage lengths with the assumption that these ULH services will be short-lived and the frames re-deployed on "traditional routes". This might explain why they are interested in 300 seats, as shorter stage lengths would not need to block seats in either direction. I could see these planes replacing the 747-400ER fleet, for example, on long - but not ultra-long - missions.


In that scenario the A350-900ULR would make a good case. The 280t A350-900 is capable of flying 300 passengers over those long - but not ultra-long - missions. So if ULH fails, all QF needs to do is re-configuring the A350-900ULR with a denser cabin. That's exactly what SQ has in mind in case SIN-EWR fails.

Of course, the 777-8 would be able to take some 350 passengers on the same non-ULR missions.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
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OA940
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:48 pm

The 778 would be the obvious winner, but its range falls quite short of the 359ULR, which falls short on capacity. If they can get the 778 to the range of the 77L they are golden. Then again it would be nice to see more 359ULR orders. This is too complex.
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a320fan
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:54 pm

Sign me up for direct flights, even in economy. I have no issue with long flights at all provided the configuration is comfortable enough. Last week flew MEL to LHR through DOH and the 14:30 flight to Doha just flew by, honestly the whole trip went so much quicker and was so much easier than I was expecting. The stop was the worst part, to get so far in such a short amount of time and then have to sit and wait and then go through the whole boarding process, sitting and waiting, taxi out, departure really felt like a waste of time. Especially on the A380 where it takes a good part of an hour to board the thing. At no time during the journey was I uncomfortable in a standard Y seat.
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tealnz
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:09 pm

Stitch wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
Frankly, I see this more about Joyce creating PR than a serious business case to operate such ULH flights. Its pretty obvious the economics will be quite marginal at best and who knows what the global economy and fuel prices will be in 2022 to support such service.


So perhaps one of the more important components of the RFP will be not which plane performs better on the ULH portion, but the one that performs better on shorter stage lengths with the assumption that these ULH services will be short-lived and the frames re-deployed on "traditional routes". This might explain why they are interested in 300 seats, as shorter stage lengths would not need to block seats in either direction. I could see these planes replacing the 747-400ER fleet, for example, on long - but not ultra-long - missions.


... which is why I think the 359 might be a serious contender. The boffins who do the math on the economics of the 778 vs the 359 will be looking at costs and revenue across maybe a dozen different sectors: SYD-LHR (the most demanding), LHR-SYD (much easier), JFK (from MEL as well as SYD), ORD, DFW. Conceivably others. Leeham's numbers suggest the 778 would be a lot more capable than the current 359ULR on SYD-LHR but you'd expect the 359 to be highly competitive on sectors such as JFK. Would the 359 be able to do SYD-LHR at all? Leeham's numbers suggest it could carry a pax load similar to what the 789 will carry from Perth. Sounds to me as if the 359 will be a real option. So it might ultimately be the longer-term fleet replacement arithmetic (359/35K vs 778/779) that swings it.
 
Bald1983
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:12 pm

XAM2175 wrote:
Bald1983 wrote:
There was a time Boeing flew a 777-200 LR from Hong Kong to London, on a demonstration flight, crossing the Pacific, the United States, and the Atlantic to get there. However, if I recall the details, only forty five passengers were on board, they were limited on the weight of their carry on and, I believe they towed the plane to the runway before the engine start.


The even-more pertinent example here is one QF made themselves with B747-438 VH-OJA on it's delivery flight in 1989 - LHR to SYD non-stop in just over 20 hours... mostly fitted-out but carrying only about 20 "passengers", and benefiting from an engines-out tow and a special higher-density blend of fuel.

To now be talking about such sectors in terms of "only 250-odd" passengers is still a bit hard for me to get my head around!


I would agree it is hard to get your head around. However, if I could travel back in time to the 1960's or 1970's, and tell my airline pilot father that someday, 737's would be used to fly from the West Coast to Hawaii, that younger version of him would have thought I was nuts. Anything is possible.
 
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:24 pm

QF CEO's comments on the last frontier in global aviation

We want to offer direct flights to Europe not only from Perth but from the eastern states as well.
That’s why I’m pleased to announce that Qantas will challenge Boeing and Airbus to deliver an aircraft capable of flying regular direct services like Sydney-London, Brisbane-Paris and Melbourne-New York non-stop with a full payload by 2022.
This is a last frontier in global aviation.
The antidote to the tyranny of distance.
And a revolution for air travel in Australia.
A direct flight would cut up to four hours of travel time off a journey to London.
Removing the need to stop mid-way means your journey is uninterrupted. Less chance for delays on the ground; more time watching movies and sleeping. And a faster trip door to door.
I have written to the CEOs of Boeing and Airbus to extend the challenge to them.
Both manufacturers are developing aircraft that can almost do the job – the Boeing 777X and the Airbus A350ULR. We believe advances in the next few years will close the gap, and Qantas has the unique operational experience to be the airline that helps make it happen.
This would be one of the most strategically important aircraft orders in the history of Qantas.
But there is a lot of work to scope this fully. And we’re calling it Project Sunrise – a nod to the legendary Double Sunrise flights operated by Qantas across the Indian Ocean during World War 2. They remained airborne long enough to see two sunrises in what was an incredible feat of endurance given the technology of the day.
This is the kind of pioneering spirit that the national carrier is built on. And it’s the kind of spirit that we want to take us forward.


https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/speec ... r-results/
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redroo
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:30 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Frankly, I see this more about Joyce creating PR than a serious business case to operate such ULH flights.

Its pretty obvious the economics will be quite marginal at best and who knows what the global economy and fuel prices will be in 2022 to support such service.

Frankly, I would never want to take such a flight. I think a 15-hour journey from LAX to Australia is about as far as I would like to go nonstop and that is in business class. Could never imagine doing longer especially in economy. I prefer the opportunity to stop, breathe some outside air, take a walk, hang out in a lounge etc.


To skippys 15 hrs is easy. This is about getting high yield Australian corporate passengers to London and New York faster and easier than anyone else. It will happen and it will be well patroness by QFs customers who will happily pay more to skip the stop in the middle.
 
 
CHI2DFW
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:57 pm

No mention of ORD, as expected.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:05 am

OA940 wrote:
The 778 would be the obvious winner, but its range falls quite short of the 359ULR, which falls short on capacity. If they can get the 778 to the range of the 77L they are golden.


Remember that the 777-8 is carrying 350 passengers at 8500nm. At 9700nm, the A350-900ULR will be carrying less than half that many. The 777-8 also does not need to fill her tanks to fly 8500nm with those passengers, whereas the A350-900ULR would need full tanks to take her's 9700nm. So you can trade payload weight for fuel weight to extend the 777-8's range - probably a great deal considering the A350-900ULR's payload at 9700nm looks to be under 20,000kg per calculations in the Tech/Ops forum (so less than half of what an A350-900 can carry at MZFW). A 777-8 with a 20,000kg payload should not be even a third of what she could lift at MZFW, leaving significant TOW to tank fuel and extend range.
 
Gemuser
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:11 am

How come nobody has mentioned PAR & RIO as well as LHR & NYC?
See QFs Facebook page at: https://www.facebook.com/Qantas/?hc_ref ... 66&fnr_t=0
See the project Sunrise post.

Gemuser
 
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Stitch
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:19 am

Gemuser wrote:
How come nobody has mentioned PAR & RIO as well as LHR & NYC?


I suggested in the the "A350s for A380s" thread that QF could re-open cities like CDG, FRA, ATH, ATL, ORD and BOS.
Last edited by Stitch on Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:22 am, edited 3 times in total.
 
waoz1
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:20 am

Fun how people lost their minds over Perth-London flights over the flight time.
Now all of a sudden Sydney-London.... quiet :)
 
kimimm19
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:24 am

KarelXWB wrote:
ro1960 wrote:
kimimm19 wrote:
Unless QF (and potentially NZ) are able to require enough planes (which is highly unlikely) to spur on Airbus and Boeing, I don't see how about 15-20 planes (being generous) is going to being enough incentive to invest in the planes. Basically not enough payoff or leverage as Emirates has with massive orders and demand.


Exactly what I was thinking. Beside QF and NZ how many other airlines would purchase such planes to make it worth the investment from A or B?


Boeing will build the 777-8 anyway. So if QF wants to fly SYD-LHR, a payload restricted 777-8 can do the job.


Yes, however it seems QF is saying that what will make these routes worth operating is the added revenue from not restricting payload... So I what I mean is Boeing won't see any incentive to spend the money on modifications on such a small market.
 
downdata
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:29 am

They will need a supersonic aircraft. I find a 12 hour flight in coach to be intolerable. I don't think anyone posted here have flown remotely close to 20 hours continuously on an airline.
 
MooLor
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Fri Aug 25, 2017 1:06 am

downdata wrote:
They will need a supersonic aircraft. I find a 12 hour flight in coach to be intolerable. I don't think anyone posted here have flown remotely close to 20 hours continuously on an airline.


I did 19 hours in a DL 772 - not all flying, but confined to the cabin. LAX - SYD, we were diverted and sat on the BNE tarmac for ~three hours.

It was tolerable, but the DL 777 is nine abreast in Y (which I highly recommend btw). I would not willingly board a flight of that duration with a Y cabin offering less personal space than that.
 
DfwRevolution
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Fri Aug 25, 2017 1:16 am

LAXintl wrote:
Its pretty obvious the economics will be quite marginal at best and who knows what the global economy and fuel prices will be in 2022 to support such service.


How much longer are we going to keep up the paranoia that fuel prices are going to climb to 1970s or 2000s price levels? We cracked the technology to economically produce oil from the most abundant - but historically stubborn - formations. Oil field service costs are down 60-70% from two years ago. We can ramp-up production by drilling and completing new wells in under two weeks. Nobody can afford to embargo anybody. The fundamental supply and demand factors just don't support high prices.

Case in point: there's a Category 3, maybe Category 4, hurricane charging through the Gulf of Mexico towards all of the refineries in Texas. How are energy prices reacting today? They're flat. Ten years ago, the impact on gas prices would be a leading national story.
I have a three post per topic limit. You're welcome to have the last word.
 
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Fri Aug 25, 2017 1:32 am

ikolkyo wrote:
zeke wrote:
The only thing I could see them getting from Airbus was the original A350-900ULH proposal which featured the -1000 engine, landing gear, weights, and fuel capacity.

That’s what I’m thinking as well, but would it really be worth it for Airbus to build that aircraft for 1 maybe 2 airlines?

Might be a surprising amount of additional takers.
  • SQ is an obvious candidate.
  • As is DL.
  • UA is running some major ULHs lately.
  • BA might wish to compete.
  • It would allow SA to offer nonstops on all of its North American service.
  • Same for ET.

....toss in the ME3 just for the fun of it, and that's ten reasonably-potential airlines right there.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
downdata
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Fri Aug 25, 2017 1:35 am

NZ might pre-empt QF with a AKL-US east coast non-stop

https://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalkin ... non-stops/
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Fri Aug 25, 2017 1:59 am

LAX772LR wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
zeke wrote:
The only thing I could see them getting from Airbus was the original A350-900ULH proposal which featured the -1000 engine, landing gear, weights, and fuel capacity.

That’s what I’m thinking as well, but would it really be worth it for Airbus to build that aircraft for 1 maybe 2 airlines?

Might be a surprising amount of additional takers.
  • SQ is an obvious candidate.
  • As is DL.
  • UA is running some major ULHs lately.
  • BA might wish to compete.
  • It would allow SA to offer nonstops on all of its North American service.
  • Same for ET.

....toss in the ME3 just for the fun of it, and that's ten reasonably-potential airlines right there.


I doubt the ME3 would order the aircraft, they all have a large amount of 778s on order, SA seems to be in complete shambles currently so I don't see that happening anytime soon. ET and BA are possibilities but they are also just as likely to order the 778 IMO and who knows what the hell UA is doing with their A350 order. Again this is just a paper airplane, if some serious demand for an A359R is there it'll happen.
 
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Keith2004
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:14 am

Every time a route like this is proposed a chorus of people say the same "it's too long" "I want to get off and stretch my legs"

Makes me wonder if people said the same thing when the first 10 and 12 hr routes were announced.

It's all unimaginable until it's the norm, I'm sure an airline would not invest in it if they didnt have the data. I personally take nonstop over a layover any day.
 
SAAbaby
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Fri Aug 25, 2017 3:02 am

Economy vs Comfort vs Demand are all good and valid points, but let's ponder, for a moment, the amazing feat this is for commercial aviation, and that non-stop routes between the UK and Australia are a real possibility in the foreseeable future. Less than 100 years ago, it took aircraft from Imperial Airways and Qantas around 30 days to fly a single leg. Now we're talking about a non-stop 20 hour flight between Oz and the UK. Pretty cool IMO.
 
AirlineBrat
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Fri Aug 25, 2017 3:13 am

For some reason, flying for over 16 hours with a seat pitch of 30 inches seems acutely repulsive to me. No thanks!!
I'm leavin on a jet plane. Don't know when I'll be back again....
 
crazyplane1234
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Fri Aug 25, 2017 3:48 am

OA940 wrote:
If they can get the 778 to the range of the 77L they are golden.

Wait, the 778 has less range than the 77L?! :o
 
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Rajahdhani
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Fri Aug 25, 2017 4:10 am

airzona11 wrote:
But as noted above, people are paying a premium to fly without the tech stop or any stop. They aren't being forced to endure. They are paying more to get there faster.


I think that perhaps, that's key to understanding/contemplating/conceptualizing what QF is attempting to achieve here. I mean, I would perhaps also - not by choice fly this route. If I were at JFK though, the options of getting to SYD are resplendent (from respective, well-timed hub arrivals to every major aviation hub along the route). By that measure, even contemporarily - QF does so, impressively as well. I see this as adding value to their offerings (or, at least, proposing to do so). Who knows, perhaps the LAX-JFK legs will be sacrificed if indeed a SYD-JFK were possible; AA can more the gracefully pick up the slack on the route, to cater to those wishing to 'stretch their legs' at LAX, or even DFW if necessary, at superior scheduling flexibility (and even using that frequency to cater to high-yielding premium passengers that want a less 'brutal' way of getting there).

That said, QF is now eying ways to better capitalize upon their offerings, and - to be honest, are probably hoping for a 777-8 at better pricing. Who can blame them for trying?
Boeing now has the consideration;
Do they sell them the frames (as is) at a discount to 'compensate' them for the loss of performance (potentially, as QF will intelligently claim - over the life of performance - and QF will capitalize by likely using a less configuration to achieve a more actively workable load - all the while, walking away with a frame perfectly capable of flying any of the trunk routes easily without a penalty)?
Or, do they actually 'upgrade' the 777-8 further, and charge QF the premium for the frames? This runs the risk, though - of an image mirrored in the past, with the 772LR. Perhaps things will be different this time. Who knows, with some work - perhaps we can see a 778 upgrade the range a little further? They certainly did as they fine tuned to the 772LR and what it was able to accomplish in range. Sure, the timeline may 'annoy' QF, as the improvements will take time, and money - but perhaps is an apt investment if they calculate that the cost of fuel remains stable/low, and economic indicators show no ill effects brewing in the market to provide a prolonged challenge to the viability of the route).
 
astuteman
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Fri Aug 25, 2017 5:02 am

Stitch wrote:
OA940 wrote:
The 778 would be the obvious winner, but its range falls quite short of the 359ULR, which falls short on capacity. If they can get the 778 to the range of the 77L they are golden.


Remember that the 777-8 is carrying 350 passengers at 8500nm. At 9700nm, the A350-900ULR will be carrying less than half that many. The 777-8 also does not need to fill her tanks to fly 8500nm with those passengers, whereas the A350-900ULR would need full tanks to take her's 9700nm. So you can trade payload weight for fuel weight to extend the 777-8's range - probably a great deal considering the A350-900ULR's payload at 9700nm looks to be under 20,000kg per calculations in the Tech/Ops forum (so less than half of what an A350-900 can carry at MZFW). A 777-8 with a 20,000kg payload should not be even a third of what she could lift at MZFW, leaving significant TOW to tank fuel and extend range.


Strange comparison IMO.

Firstly, I'd be surprised if a 777-8X could carry 350 pax for 9 700Nm.
Secondly, I think a 316t variant of the A350-900ULR would do a lot better than "less than 20t" at 9 700Nm.
That figure is for the 280t plane IMO.

I'm inclined to agree with those saying there is a large PR element around this.

I'm not quite sure why the OEM's (who have both been told the currently planned aircraft don't do it) will cough up to develop a variant for a market of 20 or so frames. I'm equally not sure why anyone would expect that cost-conscious ECONOMY class passengers are going to cough up a 20%-30% cost delta just to save a few hours on a stop-over. The business traveller thing I completely get. So I think the 300 seat configs are pie in the sky. Added to that, Joyce talks about many other routes (e.g. MEL-CDG) being considered for ULR, and the fragmentation that implies to me suggests that 300 seats is again pie in the sky.

This being a QF thread, I would expect most to argue in favour of the "Goldilocks" plane, of course.
Things are what they are :)

Rgds
 
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RL777
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Fri Aug 25, 2017 5:27 am

crazyplane1234 wrote:
OA940 wrote:
If they can get the 778 to the range of the 77L they are golden.

Wait, the 778 has less range than the 77L?! :o


I'm not sure where he's getting those numbers, the 778 has a greater range of about 100nm with a bigger payload.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Fri Aug 25, 2017 5:28 am

crazyplane1234 wrote:
OA940 wrote:
If they can get the 778 to the range of the 77L they are golden.

Wait, the 778 has less range than the 77L?! :o

No.

It was introduced as a 9300nm aircraft in low-density configuration, and 8700nm in standard density.
77L with 3 optional auxiliary tanks was sold as 9400nm range, and ~8600nm without.

778 isn't offered with supplemental aux tanks, but Boeing could probably change that at this point were there demand for it. I suspect that's what'll happen should QF select it for their nonstop planning.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Stitch
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Fri Aug 25, 2017 5:38 am

astuteman wrote:
Strange comparison IMO.


Really? The statement being replied to was why an A350-900ULR has a design range of 9700nm to the 8500nm of the 777-8.


astuteman wrote:
Firstly, I'd be surprised if a 777-8X could carry 350 pax for 9 700Nm.


If they were all young children, maybe. :)
But I fully agree it could not if they were adults, which is why I noted the 8500nm design range with that number aboard.


astuteman wrote:
Secondly, I think a 316t variant of the A350-900ULR would do a lot better than "less than 20t" at 9 700Nm. That figure is for the 280t plane IMO.


And that is because the A350-900ULR right now is a 280t plane, not a 316t one.


astuteman wrote:
I'm inclined to agree with those saying there is a large PR element around this.


Which I expect would favor the A350-900 - or even more 787-9s - if QF believes these ULH services will either not launch or won't last long.


astuteman wrote:
I'm not quite sure why the OEM's (who have both been told the currently planned aircraft don't do it) will cough up to develop a variant for a market of 20 or so frames.


I honestly don't see Airbus doing it - as in making the original A350-900R with the A350-1000's operating weights and partial structure. I don't know what Boeing can do to play with the operating weights nor GE with the engine thrust. I do believe Boeing can improve the fuel tankage, but without also improving the TOW, that's going to eat into the passenger count (which already is unlikely to reach 300, though it will get closer than the A350-900ULR due to the larger floor area).


astuteman wrote:
I'm equally not sure why anyone would expect that cost-conscious ECONOMY class passengers are going to cough up a 20%-30% cost delta just to save a few hours on a stop-over. The business traveller thing I completely get. So I think the 300 seat configs are pie in the sky. Added to that, Joyce talks about many other routes (e.g. MEL-CDG) being considered for ULR, and the fragmentation that implies to me suggests that 300 seats is again pie in the sky.


I believe QF has said bookings for LHR-PER are strong. We also have 17-19 hour flights like UA's SFO-SIN and QR's / EK's DOH/DXB-AKL QR has also mentioned DOH-SCL non-stop and EK has been trying to launch DXB-PTY. And those planes all have a bit under 220 Economy seats, which is a bit more than the around 200 seats I am projecting for the A350-900 and 210 for the 777-8 (and I expect QF to go more premium heavy, which will push the Economy seat count a bit lower). And SQ will soon be starting SIN-JFK, though like their (original) A340-500 service, it will be premium-only.
 
Andy33
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Fri Aug 25, 2017 5:44 am

Stitch wrote:
I hate making connections so I'd be willing to pay more (and have) for a non-stop over a one-stop, regardless of class of service I am booked in.

I agree with you, but the existing LHR-DXB-MEL and LHR-DXB-SYD of Qantas, along with NZ's LHR-LAX-AKL and BA's LHR-SIN-SYD aren't connections. The usual worry with connections is that the first flight is late so you miss the second one, or that your baggage isn't loaded onto the second flight. But for these specific routes, one-stop means the flight stops once, not that you connect once. Through passengers disembark while cleaners, toilet tank emptiers, fuellers and so on have full access to the plane, fresh catering is loaded, and a new crew takes over. Then the passengers get back on again, sit back in the same seats, and their baggage remains in the hold the whole time. The situation in LAX is less than ideal because the US government insists you pass through Immigration even though you've no intention of actually entering their country, but DXB and SIN (along with HKG and BKK in the past) welcome the through passengers and nothing more stressful than a security check occurs.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:06 am

How far could a A350 1000 fly at 316t and 300 pax with realistic extra tankage?
 
wa5
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:34 am

could a 748 be configured for this route?
 
UAL777UK
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:45 am

smithbs wrote:

Count me out on those routes. 20 hours in coach? Not unless I've been cryogenically frozen.


:D I think you have just hit on a great idea!

Like you such a long flight does not appeal but I also take the view that there are a lot it will appeal to
 
C010T3
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Fri Aug 25, 2017 8:20 am

Gemuser wrote:
How come nobody has mentioned PAR & RIO as well as LHR & NYC?
See QFs Facebook page at: https://www.facebook.com/Qantas/?hc_ref ... 66&fnr_t=0
See the project Sunrise post.

Gemuser


It is just weird that mentioning GIG. I think that SYD-GIG is just as long as DOH-AKL, considering ETOPS, so it could already be done.
 
Gemuser
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Fri Aug 25, 2017 8:53 am

C010T3 wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
How come nobody has mentioned PAR & RIO as well as LHR & NYC?
See QFs Facebook page at: https://www.facebook.com/Qantas/?hc_ref ... 66&fnr_t=0
See the project Sunrise post.

Gemuser


It is just weird that mentioning GIG. I think that SYD-GIG is just as long as DOH-AKL, considering ETOPS, so it could already be done.

Yes, but with too big an aircraft therefore uneconomic. I would have thought GRU first, but who knows.

Gemuser
 
CRJ900
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Fri Aug 25, 2017 9:08 am

Stupid question, perhaps, but why isn't the 316t MTOW A350-1000 in the running with additional fuel tanks in the cargo hold, like the A321LR? If the A350-1000 has 8,000nm range with 350 pax already, why not add 2-3 ACT and reduce pax capacity to 300? The A35K cabin will be roomier for everyone on a 20-hour flight than a -900 cabin.

If using the A35K with removable ACT, QF has the opportunity to remove the ACT if the ULH flights don't work and reconfigure the aircraft into a "normal" A35K with just trans-Pacific range.
Last edited by CRJ900 on Fri Aug 25, 2017 9:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
Come, fly the prevailing winds with me
 
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africawings
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Re: Qantas to announce ambitious plan to fly East Coast Australia to London and New York by 2022

Fri Aug 25, 2017 9:18 am

Was also thinking of a 748 (ER?) for this run...
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