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WPvsMW
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Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Sun Aug 27, 2017 7:46 pm

Lots of discussion about DL's network strategy at SEA (on hold until IAF) and at LAX (esp. international), but relatively overlooked is (i) NRT's future when the JV w/ KE actually launches, and (ii) DL's 5th Freedom services ex-ICN.

The accepted wisdom is that under the TPAC JV with KE, DL retains its ex-Japan beach markets and its traffic rights to China... which would include ex-Japan service to China ... and where else intra-Asia? DL has yet to announce the end of NRT/SIN (one of the worst-timed flights in DL's network, arriving just after midnight ST and departing before 0600 ST ... at least the PIE isn't crowded then, but SMRT has no service at those hours).

NRT/SIN uses NRT-based crew. Will DL maintain an NRT crew base for a single service to SIN? BKK, MNL, and PVG ex-NRT are history (NRT/PVG becomes ATL/PVG in July 2018). DL operated its BOM base (inherited from PA) when DL operated a single FRA/BOM service (also ex-PA). Under the JV, any TPAC would be shared with KE, so TPAC ex-NRT will continue, but be shared, as in the TATL JV. In its TATL JV, DL uses no 5th Freedom routes from its TATL destinations. https://www.delta.com/content/dam/delta ... te-map.pdf Will the TPAC model copy the TATL model?

Let's assume that NRT/SIN moves to ICN/SIN (I hope it does, just for pax convenience in SIN, "pax RON" is much easier and affordable at ICN). Using the BOM analogy, the NRT base would close: crew layovers from SEA, MSP, DTW, and ATL to TYO don't need a base. For purposes of discussion, what could DL do with an NRT base that it couldn't do with an ICN base (which might not be necessary)? Fly domestically w/in JP? Very improbable, since DL ended its previous intra-JP service. The only practical strategy left is .... NRT/China.

I think that Glen may have a Chinese surprise up his sleeve. The JV should make half the frames DL now uses TPAC (other than beach markets and SYD) available for other routes. DL would not duplicate KE service to China ex-ICN, but what about service to China ex-NRT? Bingo. I think network planners at DL are studying how CN/KR traffic differs from CN/JP traffic, and that DL could expand its CN/JP service. It's all RASM/CASM, right? I think DL has not announced the termination of NRT/SIN service... closure of the NRT base, and write-off of significant sunk cost... because DL is weighing a JP/CN strategy ex-NRT.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Sun Aug 27, 2017 8:06 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
The only practical strategy left is .... NRT/China.

I think that Glen may have a Chinese surprise up his sleeve. The JV should make half the frames DL now uses TPAC (other than beach markets and SYD) available for other routes. DL would not duplicate KE service to China ex-ICN, but what about service to China ex-NRT? Bingo. I think network planners at DL are studying how CN/KR traffic differs from CN/JP traffic, and that DL could expand its CN/JP service. It's all RASM/CASM, right? I think DL has not announced the termination of NRT/SIN service... closure of the NRT base, and write-off of significant sunk cost... because DL is weighing a JP/CN strategy ex-NRT.


Well...if that were true, why is DL dropping its last NRT-China flight? In addition, DL needs US flight frequencies for Zone 1, which none are available as AA got the last for LAX-PEK. I don't see DL opening up secondary cities because that is what China Eastern is for. I don't necessarily believe NRT is dead; KE is strong in Japan and having a decent presence at NRT would benefit DL/KE JV - I just don't know what that presence will be.

Finally, how do you get "half the frames DL now uses TPAC...available for other routes"?
 
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c933103
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Sun Aug 27, 2017 8:19 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
The only practical strategy left is .... NRT/China.

I think that Glen may have a Chinese surprise up his sleeve. The JV should make half the frames DL now uses TPAC (other than beach markets and SYD) available for other routes. DL would not duplicate KE service to China ex-ICN, but what about service to China ex-NRT? Bingo. I think network planners at DL are studying how CN/KR traffic differs from CN/JP traffic, and that DL could expand its CN/JP service. It's all RASM/CASM, right? I think DL has not announced the termination of NRT/SIN service... closure of the NRT base, and write-off of significant sunk cost... because DL is weighing a JP/CN strategy ex-NRT.


Well...if that were true, why is DL dropping its last NRT-China flight? In addition, DL needs US flight frequencies for Zone 1, which none are available as AA got the last for LAX-PEK. I don't see DL opening up secondary cities because that is what China Eastern is for. I don't necessarily believe NRT is dead; KE is strong in Japan and having a decent presence at NRT would benefit DL/KE JV - I just don't know what that presence will be.

Finally, how do you get "half the frames DL now uses TPAC...available for other routes"?

When I was reading the bilateral agreement, there seems to be some references on flights from Japan being counted toward frequency restrictions?
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panamair
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Sun Aug 27, 2017 8:22 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
Lots of discussion about DL's network strategy at SEA (on hold until IAF) and at LAX (esp. international), but relatively overlooked is (i) NRT's future when the JV w/ KE actually launches, and (ii) DL's 5th Freedom services ex-ICN.

The accepted wisdom is that under the TPAC JV with KE, DL retains its ex-Japan beach markets and its traffic rights to China... which would include ex-Japan service to China ... and where else intra-Asia? DL has yet to announce the end of NRT/SIN (one of the worst-timed flights in DL's network, arriving just after midnight ST and departing before 0600 ST ... at least the PIE isn't crowded then, but SMRT has no service at those hours).

NRT/SIN uses NRT-based crew. Will DL maintain an NRT crew base for a single service to SIN? BKK, MNL, and PVG ex-NRT are history (NRT/PVG becomes ATL/PVG in July 2018). DL operated its BOM base (inherited from PA) when DL operated a single FRA/BOM service (also ex-PA). Under the JV, any TPAC would be shared with KE, so TPAC ex-NRT will continue, but be shared, as in the TATL JV. In its TATL JV, DL uses no 5th Freedom routes from its TATL destinations. https://www.delta.com/content/dam/delta ... te-map.pdf Will the TPAC model copy the TATL model?

Let's assume that NRT/SIN moves to ICN/SIN (I hope it does, just for pax convenience in SIN, "pax RON" is much easier and affordable at ICN). Using the BOM analogy, the NRT base would close: crew layovers from SEA, MSP, DTW, and ATL to TYO don't need a base. For purposes of discussion, what could DL do with an NRT base that it couldn't do with an ICN base (which might not be necessary)? Fly domestically w/in JP? Very improbable, since DL ended its previous intra-JP service. The only practical strategy left is .... NRT/China.

I think that Glen may have a Chinese surprise up his sleeve. The JV should make half the frames DL now uses TPAC (other than beach markets and SYD) available for other routes. DL would not duplicate KE service to China ex-ICN, but what about service to China ex-NRT? Bingo. I think network planners at DL are studying how CN/KR traffic differs from CN/JP traffic, and that DL could expand its CN/JP service. It's all RASM/CASM, right? I think DL has not announced the termination of NRT/SIN service... closure of the NRT base, and write-off of significant sunk cost... because DL is weighing a JP/CN strategy ex-NRT.


NRT-MNL isn't history yet either. Not saying it will survive going forward but right now, DL has not announced any imminent suspension of either (yet).
 
jbs2886
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Sun Aug 27, 2017 8:23 pm

c933103 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
The only practical strategy left is .... NRT/China.

I think that Glen may have a Chinese surprise up his sleeve. The JV should make half the frames DL now uses TPAC (other than beach markets and SYD) available for other routes. DL would not duplicate KE service to China ex-ICN, but what about service to China ex-NRT? Bingo. I think network planners at DL are studying how CN/KR traffic differs from CN/JP traffic, and that DL could expand its CN/JP service. It's all RASM/CASM, right? I think DL has not announced the termination of NRT/SIN service... closure of the NRT base, and write-off of significant sunk cost... because DL is weighing a JP/CN strategy ex-NRT.


Well...if that were true, why is DL dropping its last NRT-China flight? In addition, DL needs US flight frequencies for Zone 1, which none are available as AA got the last for LAX-PEK. I don't see DL opening up secondary cities because that is what China Eastern is for. I don't necessarily believe NRT is dead; KE is strong in Japan and having a decent presence at NRT would benefit DL/KE JV - I just don't know what that presence will be.

Finally, how do you get "half the frames DL now uses TPAC...available for other routes"?

When I was reading the bilateral agreement, there seems to be some references on flights from Japan being counted toward frequency restrictions?


Right, an NRT-China Zone 1 on a US carrier is the same as from any US destination.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Sun Aug 27, 2017 8:24 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
Well...if that were true, why is DL dropping its last NRT-China flight?

Because DL thinks the PVG slot will do better ex-ATL.

[quote="jbs2886"
Finally, how do you get "half the frames DL now uses TPAC...available for other routes"?


KE will fly half the TPAC.


I get that. I don't get how DL frees up frames? KE is already flying TPAC...
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Sun Aug 27, 2017 8:24 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Well...if that were true, why is DL dropping its last NRT-China flight?

Finally, how do you get "half the frames DL now uses TPAC...available for other routes"?


1) Because DL thinks the PVG slot will do better ex-ATL. That doesn't mean DL won't fly elsewhere in CN ex-NRT.

2) KE will fly half the TPAC. Note the "should"...

3) NRT/MNL is still operating, perhaps more for utilization of the B763 frames than for yields.
Last edited by WPvsMW on Sun Aug 27, 2017 8:41 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
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11725Flyer
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Sun Aug 27, 2017 8:28 pm

Also discussed here.

viewtopic.php?t=1359065
 
jbs2886
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Sun Aug 27, 2017 8:30 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Well...if that were true, why is DL dropping its last NRT-China flight?

Finally, how do you get "half the frames DL now uses TPAC...available for other routes"?


1) Because DL thinks the PVG slot will do better ex-ATL. That doesn't mean DL won't fly elsewhere in CN ex-NRT.

2) KE will fly half the TPAC. Note the "should free up"...


1) if there are no zone 1 frequencies available (PEK, PVG and CAN) where is DL going to fly ex-NRT to China?

2) I get KE will fly half of the TPAC, are you suggesting DL is going to drop routes? KE is probably already bigger than DL, so, if anything, DL has to expand to catch up. I don't see how anything is "free[d] up".
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Sun Aug 27, 2017 8:44 pm

1) To the new SEZs, esp. the SAEZs, like Apple City.
http://citiscope.org/story/2016/chinas- ... -zhengzhou

2) I'm suggesting DL will have new routes.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Sun Aug 27, 2017 8:49 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
1) To the new SEZs, esp. the SAEZs, like Apple City.
http://citiscope.org/story/2016/chinas- ... -zhengzhou

2) I'm suggesting DL will have new routes.


I find it highly unlikely DL will open secondary cities from NRT. Again, that is what PVG connections are for and why DL bought part of CE.

And, again, if DL has the new routes, how have aircraft been "free[d] up"? DL has to drop routes to free up aircraft.
 
lavalampluva
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:27 pm

I don't think DL will be allowed to relocate other flights to HND. So it seems like NRT or nothing. Could NRT flights be moved to ICN or a new hub in China?
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
bfitzflyer
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Sun Aug 27, 2017 11:35 pm

Here we go again...
 
clrd4t8koff
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Sun Aug 27, 2017 11:58 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
NRT/SIN uses NRT-based crew.


Sort of. They use predominantly USA (ATL mostly) crews with 1-2 NRT crew for language speakers. I've flown NRT-SIN & NRT-BKK (until it was operated) and the 777/767 were always ATL based crews with a language based speaker (NRT crew).
 
crazyplane1234
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Mon Aug 28, 2017 12:03 am

US-TYO is still a significant O&D market, the flights from SEA and DTW to NRT, as well as LAX-HND, will remain.
The fifth freedoms will probably be discontinued.
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Mon Aug 28, 2017 12:25 am

crazyplane1234 wrote:
US-TYO is still a significant O&D market, the flights from SEA and DTW to NRT, as well as LAX-HND, will remain.
The fifth freedoms will probably be discontinued.


PDX-NRT is still going strong too despite continued speculation by some for years that it would be dropped.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Mon Aug 28, 2017 1:49 am

I think NRT/PDX will stay, and we might see KE frames on that route.

I also think that DL has its eye on CGO (Xinzheng International, the "Apple City" airport), and the dozen or so more aerotropoleis (not a typo, the "suffix" is Greek) emerging in CN.

"China has many special economic zones, but the ZAEZ is the first to be spatially and economically centered around an airport. It’s been an almost instant success, and has provided the blueprint for dozens more similar airport-centered cities across China. ... Five times the size of Manhattan, the zone is a city within a city, located about 30 kilometers (19 miles) from the historic core of Zhengzhou."
http://citiscope.org/story/2016/chinas- ... -zhengzhou

As for "here we go again"... there are no threads expressly on "the future of DL at NRT and ICN", and this thread has the first mention of the aerotropoleis in CN on a.net.
 
bfitzflyer
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:13 am

WPvsMW wrote:
I think NRT/PDX will stay, and we might see KE frames on that route.

I also think that DL has its eye on CGO (Xinzheng International, the "Apple City" airport), and the dozen or so more aerotropoleis (not a typo, the "suffix" is Greek) emerging in CN.

"China has many special economic zones, but the ZAEZ is the first to be spatially and economically centered around an airport. It’s been an almost instant success, and has provided the blueprint for dozens more similar airport-centered cities across China. ... Five times the size of Manhattan, the zone is a city within a city, located about 30 kilometers (19 miles) from the historic core of Zhengzhou."
http://citiscope.org/story/2016/chinas- ... -zhengzhou

As for "here we go again"... there are no threads expressly on "the future of DL at NRT and ICN", and this thread has the first mention of the aerotropoleis in CN on a.net.


I shouldn't bite, but am, please read the thread listed above on the JV between KE and DL. It discusses this in detail excluding aerotropoleis.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:26 am

I've read that thread, and posted in it. This thread is not "what will happen in SEA / MSP / DTW / ATL when NRT is deubbed"; that topic in in JV thread. This thread is about DL's strategy for NRT and ICN during the JV. I think it's a separate topic that could be titled "DL's 5th Freedom strategy ex-NRT and ex-ICN" ... not involving KE. Separate from the JV.

My major premise is the only new DL 5th Freedom routes that could work ex-NRT are to CN. It appears restrictions on Category 1 airports in CN will be relaxed.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1372301

I think DL will leave CN routes ex-ICN to KE.

I don't think DL wants to rely on exclusively on MU for CN traffic ex-NRT. IME, there are two kinds of flights at PVG: delayed and cancelled. MU routes from NRT are to PVG and to NKG. Two routes total.
http://hk.ceair.com/muovc/public/default_map.htm
 
jbs2886
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:58 am

WPvsMW wrote:
I think NRT/PDX will stay, and we might see KE frames on that route.

I also think that DL has its eye on CGO (Xinzheng International, the "Apple City" airport), and the dozen or so more aerotropoleis (not a typo, the "suffix" is Greek) emerging in CN.

"China has many special economic zones, but the ZAEZ is the first to be spatially and economically centered around an airport. It’s been an almost instant success, and has provided the blueprint for dozens more similar airport-centered cities across China. ... Five times the size of Manhattan, the zone is a city within a city, located about 30 kilometers (19 miles) from the historic core of Zhengzhou."
http://citiscope.org/story/2016/chinas- ... -zhengzhou

As for "here we go again"... there are no threads expressly on "the future of DL at NRT and ICN", and this thread has the first mention of the aerotropoleis in CN on a.net.


Wait, you think NRT-PDX is going to go KE? I'm sorry, that is nuts.

Also, on what basis is DL looking at CGO?
 
jbs2886
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Mon Aug 28, 2017 3:21 am

WPvsMW wrote:
I didn't write "NRT-PDX is going to go to KE". The TPAC JV is like the TATL JV: equipment indifferent. So, yes KE frames and DL frames could operate on the same routes. ATL/AMS. JFK/CDG. That's TATL. SEA/ICN. PDX/NRT. That's TPAC.

I don't know on what basis DL is looking at CGO. I know what my premise is: if DL keeps any 5th Freedom routes ex-NRT, DL should look at CGO.


You very well did say NRT/PDX could be KE. And obviously I understand its metal neutral.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Mon Aug 28, 2017 3:22 am

I didn't write "NRT-PDX is going to go to KE". The TPAC JV is like the TATL JV: equipment indifferent. So, yes KE frames and DL frames could operate on the same routes. ATL/AMS. JFK/CDG. That's TATL. SEA/ICN. PDX/NRT. That's TPAC.

I don't know on what basis DL is looking at CGO. I know what my premise is: if DL keeps any 5th Freedom routes ex-NRT, DL should look at CGO and other CN aerotropoleis.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Mon Aug 28, 2017 3:27 am

I wrote: "..we might see KE frames on that route."

might. verb. "Used to indicate conditional or possible actions."

Under the JV, we might see KE frames on any TPAC JV route.

Question: Is PDX/NRT a TPAC JV route?
 
amadorE175
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Mon Aug 28, 2017 3:31 am

WPvsMW wrote:
I think NRT/PDX will stay, and we might see KE frames on that route.


WPvsMW wrote:
I wrote: "..we might see KE frames on that route."

might. verb. "Used to indicate conditional or possible actions."


Ok, sure, not with certainty but the thought is still nonsensical. No KE frames will go on the route if KE itself does not fly the route. Why would KE fly NRT-PDX when neither of those two airports are bases for them? The airlines don't exchange aircraft.

WPvsMW wrote:
Under the JV, we might see KE frames on any TPAC JV route.


Or, more probably, we might see KE frames on any JV route from ICN, where KE operates.
 
Sightseer
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Mon Aug 28, 2017 3:32 am

WPvsMW wrote:
It appears restrictions on Category 1 airports in CN will be relaxed.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1372301


That refers to countries that have open skies agreements with China, not the three Category 1 airports in the US-China bilateral.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Mon Aug 28, 2017 4:11 am

I know that relaxation is related to Open Skies. I suggest that that relaxation is a harbinger of broader relaxation that I think will happen in connection with the Special Airport Economic Zones.

To respond further on PDX/NRT (or actually, pick a JV TPAC route to any US international airport)... agreed, "No KE frames will go on the route if KE itself does not fly the route." Putting aside the tautology, my point is... KE might fly in the route in the future. We do not know what the JV will bring. Is PDX an international airport? Yes. Might KE fly there. Yes.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Mon Aug 28, 2017 4:20 am

WPvsMW wrote:
I know that relaxation is related to Open Skies. I suggest that that relaxation is a harbinger of broader relaxation that I think will happen in connection with the Special Airport Economic Zones.

To respond further on PDX/NRT (or actually, pick a JV TPAC route to any US international airport)... agreed, "No KE frames will go on the route if KE itself does not fly the route." Putting aside the tautology, my point is... KE might fly in the route in the future. We do not know what the JV will bring. Is PDX an international airport? Yes. Might KE fly there. Yes.


It seems a rather pointless discussion if we are just saying DL and KE may fly all routes that they can fly in the JV. Wouldn't the better discussion be whether they would actually do it? I never disputed KE could fly NRT-PDX, I said it was not going to happen.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Mon Aug 28, 2017 5:01 am

My major premise is the only new DL 5th Freedom routes that could work ex-NRT are to CN.

Discussion of TPAC routes is not relevant to the topic, but I responded since the route was mentioned. So... what new DL5th Freedom routes could work ex-NRT?

My minor premise is that DL's FA base at NRT will end only when the 5th Freedom routes end.

I don't see a DL pilot base in Asia ... that 12 day rotation to Asia for a month's worth of flying, and the paid deadheads to/from the States is probably the sweetest deal in DALPA ... based on the comments in the various pilots fora.
 
deltal1011man
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Mon Aug 28, 2017 6:07 am

jbs2886 wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
1) To the new SEZs, esp. the SAEZs, like Apple City.
http://citiscope.org/story/2016/chinas- ... -zhengzhou

2) I'm suggesting DL will have new routes.


I find it highly unlikely DL will open secondary cities from NRT. Again, that is what PVG connections are for and why DL bought part of CE.

And, again, if DL has the new routes, how have aircraft been "free[d] up"? DL has to drop routes to free up aircraft.

All i can add to this hopeless thread,

Its MU, not CE.

Other than that, I'm not sure most of the people posting here have any idea what they are talking about.


Sure this will be deleted though. :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Mon Aug 28, 2017 8:31 am

What merits deletion? I've suggested that the only new DL 5th Freedom routes that could work ex-NRT are to CN, and the 5th Freedom routes could include the new SAEZs. That is nowhere else on a.net.

A corollary is that DL's reduction to zero of 5th Freedom routes TATL would probably be followed at NRT except for three factors: (i) NRT/SIN yields are good, (ii) possible network growth to CN ex-NRT, esp. as a first mover, and (iii) the beach markets make NRT different from the FRA/BOM model. IMO, if DL had made a decision about MNL and SIN ex-NRT, it would have been announced with the decision to end BKK and TPE ex-NRT.
 
simpv
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Mon Aug 28, 2017 9:04 am

I agree with most on this thread that new DL 5th freedom routes from TYO are unlikely. UA has eliminated most from NRT in favor of JVs. DL eliminated their plans for a hub at Cape Verde. DL's operations are destined to shrink at TYO as well. With the growth of the SEA (and perhaps LAX) and the impending JV with KE, I just don't see any more opportunities for DL from TYO, even to China. It'd be far better for DL/KE to consolidate more routes into ICN from the US to achieve economies of scale on smaller, interior China routes.

A friend that works at DL planning said that NRT-MNL was the best performing 5th freedom route, but that was not a consequence of demand from the US. So maybe it will stick around, but my guess is that in the long-term, DL's resources are best deployed elsewhere.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:09 pm

deltal1011man wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
1) To the new SEZs, esp. the SAEZs, like Apple City.
http://citiscope.org/story/2016/chinas- ... -zhengzhou

2) I'm suggesting DL will have new routes.


I find it highly unlikely DL will open secondary cities from NRT. Again, that is what PVG connections are for and why DL bought part of CE.

And, again, if DL has the new routes, how have aircraft been "free[d] up"? DL has to drop routes to free up aircraft.

All i can add to this hopeless thread,

Its MU, not CE.

Other than that, I'm not sure most of the people posting here have any idea what they are talking about.


Sure this will be deleted though. :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:


Doh, thanks. I felt CE was wrong but couldn't remember.

Yea this thread is a cluster. Speculation is fine, but geez be reasonable.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:16 pm

Anything that can be moved from NRT to ICN or HND is being moved. Only the routes that can't be moved won't be moved (generally 5th freedom services), or I see KE taking them over. I could see the ICN hub being like a joint KE/DL hub.
 
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Polot
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:29 pm

Sightseer wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
It appears restrictions on Category 1 airports in CN will be relaxed.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1372301


That refers to countries that have open skies agreements with China, not the three Category 1 airports in the US-China bilateral.

More importantly that has nothing to do with US/foreign carriers. China's policies mean that they do not award Chinese carriers overlapping route authorities. The US has no such rule, and will grant two US carriers rights on the same route. That is why UA, DL, and AA all fly LAX-PVG for example, but only China Eastern flies the route on the Chinese side. The Chinese government currently will not grant Air China or China Southern the rights to operate LAX-PVG (assuming Zone 1 frequencies are available on Chinese side) because of their 1 airline, 1 route rule. MU already snagged the route.
 
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brianK73
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:51 pm

There seems to be an undeclared "limit the Korean influence" policy in China right now as well as a diplomatic wrangling between South Korea and Japan causing South Korea's industrial output (auto and shipbuilding) and tourism to actually decline. For example, BBC reports that China has banned travel agencies from selling package tours to Korea in protest at Seoul allowing a US missile defence system. I would be surprised if the policy had a positive impact on Chinese point-of-sale traffic for the China-to-US air travel on the proposed DL/KE JV.

And North Korean nuke and ICBM scare continues just to the North.

Unfortunate timing for the proposed JV, indeed.
 
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Polot
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:57 pm

brianK73 wrote:
Unfortunate timing for the proposed JV, indeed.

The JV excludes China anyways, since the country does not have Open Skies with the US.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Mon Aug 28, 2017 8:54 pm

DL's having (possible) 5th Freedom routes to CN ex-NRT sidesteps CN/KR issues that could impair ex-ICN routes to CN.
 
winginit
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Mon Aug 28, 2017 8:58 pm

I'll second the notion that fifth freedom flying currently carried out on DL metal over TYO won't be carried over to ICN. You've got in ICN one of if not the best connecting hub in North Asia with a robust partner network in KE. Really no reason for DL to fly the routes via fifth freedom versus leveraging KE's existing services once the JV is fully implemented.
 
codc10
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Mon Aug 28, 2017 9:05 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
DL's having (possible) 5th Freedom routes to CN ex-NRT sidesteps CN/KR issues that could impair ex-ICN routes to CN.


DL is getting into the KE JV to exit fifth-freedom flying, among a plethora of other things. China is a critical market but don't expect to see any DL growth there ex-NRT if the JV encounters initial trouble with approvals in that region.

Fifth-freedom routes ex-NRT with a declining feed structure, no local Japan partner and poor utilization would be a giant step backwards for DL, even though I admit there is a certain nostalgia and cool factor for offshore US carrier hub operations.
 
tjerome
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Tue Aug 29, 2017 12:21 am

amadorE175 wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
I think NRT/PDX will stay, and we might see KE frames on that route.


WPvsMW wrote:
I wrote: "..we might see KE frames on that route."

might. verb. "Used to indicate conditional or possible actions."


Ok, sure, not with certainty but the thought is still nonsensical. No KE frames will go on the route if KE itself does not fly the route. Why would KE fly NRT-PDX when neither of those two airports are bases for them? The airlines don't exchange aircraft.

WPvsMW wrote:
Under the JV, we might see KE frames on any TPAC JV route.


Or, more probably, we might see KE frames on any JV route from ICN, where KE operates.


Yes. KE won't operate NRT-PDX just because it's TPAC. NRT is not a base for KE. Makes as much sense as VS operating ATL-CDG or KL operating JFK-LHR.
 
flyfresno
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:30 am

winginit wrote:
I'll second the notion that fifth freedom flying currently carried out on DL metal over TYO won't be carried over to ICN. You've got in ICN one of if not the best connecting hub in North Asia with a robust partner network in KE. Really no reason for DL to fly the routes via fifth freedom versus leveraging KE's existing services once the JV is fully implemented.


As far as I know, Delta and other US carriers have very limited "fifth freedom" rights at ICN (far less than at NRT), mostly to US territories like Guam (I'm not sure whether Palau falls under those rights as a "protectorate" and not a "territory"). I think it's possible that Delta could add service to those two markets from ICN, but being as KE already operates both of them, they seem unlikely. I do not believe, however, they currently have the fifth freedom rights to operate routes like SIN or MNL.

tjerome wrote:
amadorE175 wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
I think NRT/PDX will stay, and we might see KE frames on that route.


WPvsMW wrote:
I wrote: "..we might see KE frames on that route."

might. verb. "Used to indicate conditional or possible actions."


Ok, sure, not with certainty but the thought is still nonsensical. No KE frames will go on the route if KE itself does not fly the route. Why would KE fly NRT-PDX when neither of those two airports are bases for them? The airlines don't exchange aircraft.

WPvsMW wrote:
Under the JV, we might see KE frames on any TPAC JV route.


Or, more probably, we might see KE frames on any JV route from ICN, where KE operates.


Yes. KE won't operate NRT-PDX just because it's TPAC. NRT is not a base for KE. Makes as much sense as VS operating ATL-CDG or KL operating JFK-LHR.


I agree with you that this seems very, very unlikely, but KE does operate from both Hawaii and Guam to Japan, so it would not be totally unprecedented as far as them flying a route from the US to Japan.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:40 am

Agreed. I flew HNL/NRT many times before the MQM meltdown on KE. If a DL elite upgraded Y to J, the KE purser would usually move the DL elite to the F cabin (the flights were sold as Y/J two class... but the F cabin was there in all of its wide, reclining glory).
 
jrkmsp
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Tue Aug 29, 2017 3:07 am

flyfresno wrote:
winginit wrote:
I'll second the notion that fifth freedom flying currently carried out on DL metal over TYO won't be carried over to ICN. You've got in ICN one of if not the best connecting hub in North Asia with a robust partner network in KE. Really no reason for DL to fly the routes via fifth freedom versus leveraging KE's existing services once the JV is fully implemented.


As far as I know, Delta and other US carriers have very limited "fifth freedom" rights at ICN (far less than at NRT), mostly to US territories like Guam (I'm not sure whether Palau falls under those rights as a "protectorate" and not a "territory"). I think it's possible that Delta could add service to those two markets from ICN, but being as KE already operates both of them, they seem unlikely. I do not believe, however, they currently have the fifth freedom rights to operate routes like SIN or MNL.

tjerome wrote:
amadorE175 wrote:



Ok, sure, not with certainty but the thought is still nonsensical. No KE frames will go on the route if KE itself does not fly the route. Why would KE fly NRT-PDX when neither of those two airports are bases for them? The airlines don't exchange aircraft.



Or, more probably, we might see KE frames on any JV route from ICN, where KE operates.


Yes. KE won't operate NRT-PDX just because it's TPAC. NRT is not a base for KE. Makes as much sense as VS operating ATL-CDG or KL operating JFK-LHR.


I agree with you that this seems very, very unlikely, but KE does operate from both Hawaii and Guam to Japan, so it would not be totally unprecedented as far as them flying a route from the US to Japan.


When two countries have an Open Skies agreement, such as exists between the US and South Korea, airlines of either country may offer any service to/from behind/beyond either country, as long as it's permitted by the agreement in the country where the flights land. So If Delta wanted to sell an ICN-SIN, it could do so tomorrow. Might not make the new JV partners too happy though. Here's the relevant part of the Open Skies agreements between the US and South Korea.

Routes Airlines of each Party designated under this Annex shall, in accordance with the terms of their designation, be entitled to perform scheduled international air transportation between points on the following routes'

A. Routes for the airline or airlines designated by the Government of the United States : From points behind the United States via the United States and intermediate points to a point or points in the Republic of Korea and beyond.

B . Routes for the airline or airlines designated by the Government of the Republic of Korea : From points behind the Republic of Korea via the Republic of Korea and intermediate points to a point or points in the United States and beyond .

Section 2

Operational Flexibility Each designated airline may, on any or all flights and at its option :

1 . Operate flights in either or both directions ;

2. Combine different flight numbers within one aircraft operation;

3. Serve behind, intermediate, and beyond points and points in the territories of the Partieson the routes in any combination and in any order ;

4 . Omit stops at any point or points;

5 . Transfer traffic from any of its aircraft to any of its other aircraft at any point on the routes; and i I The provision of Annex t shall not be construed to give U.S. designated airlines the right to operate air services to/from any point in the Republic of Korea from/to any point in the northern part of the Korean peninsula which isnot under the administrative control of the Republic of Korea .

6. Serve points behind any point in its territory with or without change of aircraft or flight number and may hold out and advertise such services to the public as through services ; without directional or geographic limitation and without loss of any right to carry traffic otherwise permissible under this Agreement ; provided that the service serves a point in the territory of the Party designating the airline.



Here's the full agreement: https://www.state.gov/e/eb/rls/othr/ata/k/ks/114172.htm

In other words, Delta can fly from ICN to anywhere there is also an Open Skies agreement. The Philippines and the US don't have an open skies agreement, but their air service agreement allows service between MNL and the US via unnamed intermediate points, and South Korea isn't listed an an exclusion country for stopover and local traffic. So I would assume it can start ICN-MNL tomorrow as well.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Future of DL at NRT and ICN

Tue Aug 29, 2017 5:09 am

To expand the Open Skies point, the Japan/Korea Open Skies Agreement entered into effect on 22 Dec. 2010 (with TYO slot controls). Open Skies agreements permit unlimited Fifth Freedom Rights ("behind and beyond"). IOW, KE, OZ, or other KR carrier could use any JP airport (in which they have a slot) as in intermediate point to serve a US destination.

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