Andy33
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Joined: Tue Sep 15, 2009 9:30 am

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:58 pm

FoxtrotSierra wrote:
Uh.. what about VS???

Not really an independent airline even now, what with 49% belonging to Delta and 30% belonging to Air France-KLM
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9202
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:08 pm

I think the comparison between the USA and European market starts mostly out with a wrong comparison. The first point is the definition of the European market. Do we talk about the EU, EEA, ECAC and do we include Russia.
Looking at the ECAC plus Russia, we will find a lot of airlines nobody mentioned above. The 47 biggest in passenger flown:

Ryanair
Lufthansa group
IAG
Air France-KLM
Easy Jet
Turkish Airlines
Aeroflot group
SAS group
Norwegian
Air Berlin
Pegasus
Wizz
Alitalia
S7 group
Aegean Airlines
TAP
Finnair
Air Europe
Sun Express
LOT
Jet2
UTair
Ural
Monarch
Virgin Atlantic
Atlas global
Nordwind
Travel Service
Ukraine International
Icelandair group
Blue Air
Onur Air
AirBaltic
Czech Airlines
Meridiana Fly
Air Serbia
Belavia
Tarom
Croatia airlines
Volotea
Air Malta
Luxair
Azebaijan Airlines
Bulgaria Air
Enter Air
Adria Airways
Azur Air

The smallest airlines in this list have more than 1 million passengers a year. All the above airlines fly at least some 737 or A320 family or bigger aircraft. Some of the above companies run more than one airline. There are about 100 more airlines, like flybe or Loganair, operating passenger flights. I think there are a lot more airlines competing in the European market and more competition than in the USA.
There is no way in hell, that there will be only 5 airlines left in 5 years, not even if only "big" airlines are counted.
 
NYCVIE
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Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:21 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Here are my five groups

Ryanair
Easyjet
Norwegian
Lufthansa
SkyTeam group (KL, VS and may be AF)



lol What do you mean "maybe AF"? AF-KL are already a group and have been for over 10 years. Furthermore VS isn't a part of Skyteam.

Also if this five group theory were actually a thing, IAG would definitely be in the list.
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Wed Aug 30, 2017 4:22 pm

Btblue wrote:
Surely the airline market expands and contracts, mirroring the economy and with advanced algorithms and analysts modelling scenarios they are in the best shape possible for any scenario. I think the statement fromm O'leary is just a sensationalised headline. As others have said, no mention of easyJet! I do wonder if we'll ever see them brought under the IAG umbrella...


And as just as many others have already corrected, EasyJet was mentioned as one of the five airlines to survive and still exist in 5 years time. So the statement that EasyJet wasn't mentioned was just plain incorrect.

EasyJet won't be bought by IAG, they got their own LCC (Vueling).

peterinlisbon wrote:
Low cost airlines are useful, but they don't seem able to compete on long-haul and they don't provide connections. Plus, by the time you add in the cost of luggage they are often not any cheaper.


Their market share in long haul is just marginal of course, but Norwegian seems to be doing fine. Plus they do actually offer connections (for a fee). Bonus is that they give you the option to save money by excluding the options you don't want to make use of like checked luggage or a meal on board. With legacies it's often not possible to exclude this as it's included in the ticket price so you always pay for it no matter if you use it or not.

Just like with short haul, LCCs are not always cheaper but mostly they are. Of course, if you add all kind of extras a legacy might be cheaper but if you don't it makes sense to fly a long haul LCC. My first long haul flight was with Norwegian and I got excellent memories to it, I can recommend it to anyone. Good service level and unbeatable price. Cheapest legacy airline was over € 200 more expensive and took a few hours more, so logically I went the LCC way.
 
Kikko19
Posts: 599
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Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Wed Aug 30, 2017 4:27 pm

PatrickZ80 wrote:
Btblue wrote:
Surely the airline market expands and contracts, mirroring the economy and with advanced algorithms and analysts modelling scenarios they are in the best shape possible for any scenario. I think the statement fromm O'leary is just a sensationalised headline. As others have said, no mention of easyJet! I do wonder if we'll ever see them brought under the IAG umbrella...


And as just as many others have already corrected, EasyJet was mentioned as one of the five airlines to survive and still exist in 5 years time. So the statement that EasyJet wasn't mentioned was just plain incorrect.

EasyJet won't be bought by IAG, they got their own LCC (Vueling).

peterinlisbon wrote:
Low cost airlines are useful, but they don't seem able to compete on long-haul and they don't provide connections. Plus, by the time you add in the cost of luggage they are often not any cheaper.


Their market share in long haul is just marginal of course, but Norwegian seems to be doing fine. Plus they do actually offer connections (for a fee). Bonus is that they give you the option to save money by excluding the options you don't want to make use of like checked luggage or a meal on board. With legacies it's often not possible to exclude this as it's included in the ticket price so you always pay for it no matter if you use it or not.

Just like with short haul, LCCs are not always cheaper but mostly they are. Of course, if you add all kind of extras a legacy might be cheaper but if you don't it makes sense to fly a long haul LCC. My first long haul flight was with Norwegian and I got excellent memories to it, I can recommend it to anyone. Good service level and unbeatable price. Cheapest legacy airline was over € 200 more expensive and took a few hours more, so logically I went the LCC way.
Norwegian doing fine? If sk and others don't fall soon they're going to close the shop very soon.
 
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shamrock350
Posts: 5348
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Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Wed Aug 30, 2017 4:40 pm

Michael O'Leary has been saying this for over 10 years, maybe longer. I think it's obvious he doesn't believe a word of it and nobody else should either, it's the usual pandering to the media he does so well to get people talking.

Consolidation will happen but nowhere near the scale or time frame he claims.
 
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Mortyman
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Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 8:26 pm

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Wed Aug 30, 2017 4:50 pm

Kikko19 wrote:
Norwegian doing fine? If sk and others don't fall soon they're going to close the shop very soon.



Please elaborate ...
 
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LAX772LR
Posts: 12777
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Wed Aug 30, 2017 8:56 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
That as a standalone number isn't indicative of anything per se.

DaveFly wrote:
I'll let the statistics speak for themselves.

No offense, but that was a particularly irrational response....
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 7522
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Wed Aug 30, 2017 9:09 pm

NYCVIE wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Here are my five groups

Ryanair
Easyjet
Norwegian
Lufthansa
SkyTeam group (KL, VS and may be AF)



lol What do you mean "maybe AF"? AF-KL are already a group and have been for over 10 years. Furthermore VS isn't a part of Skyteam.

Also if this five group theory were actually a thing, IAG would definitely be in the list.


BA would turn itself into an LCC and absorbed by some established LCC.like Easyjet or Ryanair.
At some point, AF unions will vote themselves out of business.
 
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Jayafe
Posts: 1217
Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:12 pm

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Wed Aug 30, 2017 10:40 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
BA would turn itself into an LCC and absorbed by some established LCC.like Easyjet or Ryanair.
At some point, AF unions will vote themselves out of business.


Ryanair absorbing BA+IB+EI? Easyjet?!?

:banghead:
 
LXwing
Posts: 235
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:32 pm

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:14 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:

BA would turn itself into an LCC and absorbed by some established LCC.like Easyjet or Ryanair.
At some point, AF unions will vote themselves out of business.


Of course they would. And I bet KL would be sunk with the raising sea level due to global warming. :duck:
 
eal
Posts: 276
Joined: Wed Mar 11, 2015 7:51 pm

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:32 pm

Let's not be stupid and play semantics

IAG, AF/KL and LufthansaGroup operate their brands as a cohesive airlines making sure to route traffic X and Y way in order to prevent competition with each other.
If you think that just because they have a different name and a different board that they don't cooperate, you're clearly missing the greater picture.

Secondly, O'Leary isn't saying there's going to be NO sixth airline on the continent in the future, he's saying the sixth airline isn't going to matter.

Third, regional airlines being classified as "their own airlines" is a semantical argument; nobody goes on AirWisconsin.com to book a flight from ORD to MSN, they go on United.com.

With those rules established lets do an examination of the major European players by passengers carried. O'Leary's future 5 are in bold, I've included my own comments on how some of these airlines would consolidate nicely:

1.Ryanair
2. Lufthansa Group (LH,OS,LX,SN, EW)
3. IAG (BA, IB, EI, VY, YW) + Level (Currently under the IB OC but getting its own)
4. AF/KL (AF, KL, HV)
5. EasyJet

_______________
6. Turkish Airlines (XQ)-Not going anywhere, probably will gobble up partners in Europe
7. Aeroflot-Not going anywhere
8. SAS Group-Would fit nicely into the Lufthansa Group
9. Norwegian-Not going anywhere, will continue to grow
10. Air Berlin-Being broken up and absorbed into LH already
11. Pegasus Airlines-Will probably continue to be a standalone carrier, acquire competition
12. Wizz Air-Will continue to be a stand alone carrier, beating out local competition in Eastern Europe
13. Alitalia-AF/KL should pick up the good scraps of this one, split with MeridanaFly (under QR guidance)
14. S7-Will likely consolidate with another Russian carrier and serve as a true secondary Russian international carrier in
the absence of Transaero
15. Agean- Fit perfectly into LH Group, short haul holiday routes to EuroWings, premium routes on Agean brand
16. TAP Air Portugal-A toss up, would work nicely in LH Group, but can very likely stand on its own
17. Finnair-Join IAG already!
18. Air Europa-Would be a good partner to AF/KL, but RyanAir seems interested and I can also see a deal with
Norwegian possibly
19. FlyBe-Will continue to be around operating for other people
20. Sun Express (Owned by TK)
21. LOT (Nordica)-Not sure who should acquire LOT, definitely cant last much longer on its own, IAG would be the best
partner to fill its Eastern Europe hole but it would be in direct competition with Finnair given the Asian
strategies
22. Jet2- Will find a marriage partner in the UK or trudge on alone
23. UTAir- S7 and UT should combine
24. Ural- Aeroflot could easily scoop this one up
25. Monarch- Needs a partner, a holiday group would be best, possibly just fail on its own
26. Virgin Atlantic- Would be a good KL/AF partner, could probably go it on its own, but it's strategy looks shakey in the
long term
27. Atlas Global-Make a good partner to Pegasus
28. Nordwind- Merge with VIM or another Russian holiday carrier
29. Travel Service- would be a good acquisition for Norwegian to expand into Czech market
30. Ukraine International- Not a very attractive prospect, but if anyone went for it, it would be LH, will probably dig its
own grave tho

Other big names not in the Top 30
32. Icelandair-Immortal
33. Blue Air- Norwegians foot hold into Eastern Europe and Romania
35. Air Baltic- AF/KL or IAG could grab this one for a foot hold in the Baltics/East Europe
36. Czech Airlines- Could get snatched up by LH when they have a financial crisis
37. MeridanaFly- A looming IAG acquisition
38. Air Serbia- Etihads last stand in Europe

Anything not listed could easily be replaced by an outside LCC (Enter Air, Volotea), the flag carrier of a small Eastern European country that can be easily acquired (Luxair, Adria, Air Malta) , or the flag carrier of a pariah (Belavia).

Who knows maybe all the middle end carriers (LOT, TAP, VS, etc.) will create a new group to compete with the EU3.

To say this level of consolidation would take place in just five years is ridiculous, but it's very plausible over the next twenty.
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
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Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:40 am

Andy33 wrote:
FoxtrotSierra wrote:
Uh.. what about VS???

Not really an independent airline even now, what with 49% belonging to Delta and 30% belonging to Air France-KLM

VS, AZ, and AB are airlines likely to loose their independence. VS will become the London branch of Skyteam. AB merged into LH or perhaps just ripped apart. AZ... well, somehow they survive, even if they shouldn't.

Sadly, as already noted, VS is no longer in control of its own fate.


mjoelnir wrote:
I think there are a lot more airlines competing in the European market and more competition than in the USA.
There is no way in hell, that there will be only 5 airlines left in 5 years, not even if only "big" airlines are counted.

Agreed. But FR is getting discussion. Something MOL is good at and free press is the best advertising...

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
WaywardMemphian
Posts: 1345
Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2014 9:05 pm

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:53 am

Is Norwegian really European? Becoming more 'Worldean.'

They are going to need a US partner unless they crank up a Virgin America type operation with a majority US owner.
 
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Mortyman
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Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 8:26 pm

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:49 am

WaywardMemphian wrote:
Is Norwegian really European? Becoming more 'Worldean.'

They are going to need a US partner unless they crank up a Virgin America type operation with a majority US owner.


Norwegian is Norwegian / European. Their main Office is in Norway
 
c933103
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Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:20 am

Even if that level of consolidation do occue and let's exclude UK, countries outside European single aviation market outside the definition of EU for simplicity, there are still no way there will only have 2 independent LCCs in EU? Unless there are some major challenges against the model of LCC and ULCC
And even the US have far more than 5 independently operated airlines
Or are they only counting airlines with at least a hundred or two planes and ignore anything below that
The message in signature have been removed according to demand.
 
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PatrickZ80
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Joined: Tue Jul 13, 2010 5:33 am

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:57 am

c933103 wrote:
Even if that level of consolidation do occue and let's exclude UK, countries outside European single aviation market outside the definition of EU for simplicity, there are still no way there will only have 2 independent LCCs in EU? Unless there are some major challenges against the model of LCC and ULCC
And even the US have far more than 5 independently operated airlines
Or are they only counting airlines with at least a hundred or two planes and ignore anything below that


Indeed they said there will be more carriers, but they're not going to matter. I bet Norwegian and Wizzair will still be around, but not large enough to play an important role.
 
c933103
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Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:21 am

PatrickZ80 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Even if that level of consolidation do occue and let's exclude UK, countries outside European single aviation market outside the definition of EU for simplicity, there are still no way there will only have 2 independent LCCs in EU? Unless there are some major challenges against the model of LCC and ULCC
And even the US have far more than 5 independently operated airlines
Or are they only counting airlines with at least a hundred or two planes and ignore anything below that


Indeed they said there will be more carriers, but they're not going to matter. I bet Norwegian and Wizzair will still be around, but not large enough to play an important role.

Then what define an airlines matters or not? TAP, Norwegian, etc. are all carriers craved out their own niche, but they don't have much business outside of their own niche, does that mean they does not matter? So, essentially it mean only airlines who cover most of the market in Europe would matter? If this is the way to count, then there are already only those five large airlines groups that reallty matters in Europe now as of 2017.
The message in signature have been removed according to demand.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:07 pm

Jayafe wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
BA would turn itself into an LCC and absorbed by some established LCC.like Easyjet or Ryanair.
At some point, AF unions will vote themselves out of business.


Ryanair absorbing BA+IB+EI? Easyjet?!?

:banghead:


In post-April 2019 era, the UK aviation market will be mostly niche ;) , recent easyjet growth proves that theory. Both easyjet and Ryanair will split their ops between EU and UK, so easy to split up and absorb BA ops as well.

BA cannot call themselves premium carriers while constantly cutting service quality.

Sure premium carriers can unbundle service offerings, but they have to compete with LCCs upselling their service. IMHO not many premium carriers are successful.
 
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AirCal737
Posts: 79
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Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:12 pm

seat38a wrote:
Well so it will be:
ME 3
US 3
EU 3
Maybe a LA 3 (Latin America ) Avianca, LAN, COPA

Just counting the big ones and not the LCC

Ever heard of the CN3???
 
seat38a
Posts: 286
Joined: Wed Nov 20, 2013 2:29 am

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:04 pm

AirCal737 wrote:
seat38a wrote:
Well so it will be:
ME 3
US 3
EU 3
Maybe a LA 3 (Latin America ) Avianca, LAN, COPA

Just counting the big ones and not the LCC

Ever heard of the CN3???


NOPE!!!
 
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AirCal737
Posts: 79
Joined: Tue Apr 05, 2016 9:17 am

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:34 pm

seat38a wrote:
AirCal737 wrote:
seat38a wrote:
Well so it will be:
ME 3
US 3
EU 3
Maybe a LA 3 (Latin America ) Avianca, LAN, COPA

Just counting the big ones and not the LCC

Ever heard of the CN3???


NOPE!!!

CZ,MU and CA. Have a total fleet size of around 1800
 
sccutler
Posts: 5835
Joined: Thu Jan 27, 2000 12:16 pm

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:46 pm

seat38a wrote:
Well so it will be:
...
US 3
...


So, which of AA, DL and UA do you expect to fail?
...three miles from BRONS, clear for the ILS one five approach...
 
NZ321
Posts: 1135
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:00 pm

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:58 pm

But there will be other airlines. Start-ups. Independents. Niche players. Look at the US and look at Asia.
Plane mad!
 
seat38a
Posts: 286
Joined: Wed Nov 20, 2013 2:29 am

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:48 pm

sccutler wrote:
seat38a wrote:
Well so it will be:
...
US 3
...


So, which of AA, DL and UA do you expect to fail?


Have you learned NOTHING from the past bankruptcies? NONE of the three are going to fail.
 
seat38a
Posts: 286
Joined: Wed Nov 20, 2013 2:29 am

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:59 pm

AirCal737 wrote:
seat38a wrote:
AirCal737 wrote:
Ever heard of the CN3???


NOPE!!!

CZ,MU and CA. Have a total fleet size of around 1800


Considering that China is NOT as far as I know in the process of consolidating the airlines into those three, I don't count them as CN3. Things in China happen at the governments whim and I've heard nothing of any plans to consolidate the airlines of the country into the big 3. And that is not even counting the crap load of domestic only airlines in China.

EU: Airlines that survive are being absorbed into one of the big three or disappearing.
ME: Emirates, Ethiad and Qatar (Self explanatory)
US: The majors have merged into actual 3. United, Delta, and AA
LA: Avianca Group, LATAM, have both merged via market forces and the rest of the smaller ones will probably merge to survive. As I said above maybe COPA.
CN3???: Last I checked, there was no plans to force consolidate by the government.
India 3: Could very well happen. Airlines other than AI are private enterprises there.
 
Planesmart
Posts: 2891
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 3:18 am

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:56 pm

He's probably right. Five ultimate airline groups, in turn owning many more brands.

Will his airline be one of the five, or one of the brands?

China is already pretty much 1-2 ultimate owners with multiple brands.
 
WPvsMW
Posts: 2252
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:30 pm

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:06 pm

Why split hairs? CN3 = three largest international carriers based in CN.
CN4... add HU.

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