Page 1 of 2

Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 10:22 am
by QuawerAir
Air Berlin won't be the last European airline domino to fall

"Michael O’Leary, the feisty chief executive of Ryanair, reckons that five years from now there will be just five European airlines. Ryanair of course will be one of them, he confidently predicts, as will his big rival EasyJet. The other three candidates in the survival stakes are Lufthansa, Air France-KLM and IAG."

Is this the future of European aviation? What do you think?

https://www.thenational.ae/business/aviation/air-berlin-won-t-be-the-last-european-airline-domino-to-fall-1.623896

Re: The CEO of Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 10:29 am
by Newbiepilot
Airlines like Air Berlin and Alitalia struggling or failing doesn't mean there will be 5 airlines. There are plenty of profitable discount airlines like, Wizz Air, Jet2, and Icelandair. I also have confidence in Norwegian

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 10:31 am
by arcticcruiser
Yeah, back in ca 1990 Jan Carlzon then CEO of SAS coined the phrase "One of five in 95" to describe a similiar vision. We all know how that played out. SAS has regular near-death experiences.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 10:53 am
by LXwing
The usual BS from MOL. He has a bad chronic case of verborrhea. Why does anyone even pay attention to that anyway?
The fall of Air Berlin and possibly also of Alitalia does not mean any other airline will go down.
Besides the LCC already mentioned, I don't see any of TAP, SAS, Air Europa or Finnair to go anywhere in the next 5 or 10 years. Air traffic is groing, not decreasing, so there will always be a place for smaller well-run airlines to prosper.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:12 am
by ChrisKen
Five years from now MOL will still say pretty much anything for column inches & free advertising.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:12 am
by HTCone
I was thinking he might be referring to airlines of a certain size, say 50+ aircraft, but then I don't see TUI group or Wizz going anywhere. There will be more consolidation though, no doubt about that.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:12 am
by downtown273
I agree with the Top 5 statement, but I think this will happen through consolidation, not through closing airlines down.

Lufthansa Group could take onboard SAS and LOT.
AF/KLM could take onboard Air Europa.
IAG is BA/IB/EI + TP? Due to geographical reasons, I believe TAP would do better with IAG.

Not sure about Finnair...

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:23 am
by smbukas
Bankruptcy is not the only way, how Europe will have only 5 airlines.

Consolidation is key argument.

I strongly believe, we will see a lot of consolidation, immediately, when any external shocks will hit - fuel prices up, economy down, terrorism, etc. Even well-run airlines can get many benefits being acquired by bigger players.

I am sure, IAG will acquire further airlines in Europe (I can see them acquiring Finnair, Wizz Air, LOT and maybe SAS); Lufthansa possibly will not stop (after eating Air Berlin, I see them looking for SAS, Aegean, TAP or LOT).

We can see USA market, and it is clear, that EU are similary liberal like USA, but there are still too many airlines. 5-6 airlines remaining in USA was not an accident - its a trend.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:29 am
by PanHAM
Typical MOL blabla. there are 150 Airlines i Europe rig now, the smaller ones have their niches and the big 3 will not take eac and every niche Player under their control.. There will be more than 100 Airlines in 5 years, the EU3 , the LC2 and a number of leisure carriers with EU/ECAA wide affliliates. Much diversity will ne maintained

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:43 am
by Noshow
I'd say there must be room for some bigger regional airlines? So many areas out of major population centers are bypassed by both legacy airlines and lowcost airlines. Grab some ATR 72 and off you go. Look at the US and what they have all over their country. Regionals going everywhere and feeding the big players as well.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:47 am
by atl100million
downtown273 wrote:
I agree with the Top 5 statement, but I think this will happen through consolidation, not through closing airlines down.

Lufthansa Group could take onboard SAS and LOT.
AF/KLM could take onboard Air Europa.
IAG is BA/IB/EI + TP? Due to geographical reasons, I believe TAP would do better with IAG.

Not sure about Finnair...


Europe is well on its way to 5 airlines even if they are operated by multiple brands.

Europe has a very fragmented airline industry because of the national pride involved in aviation.

The issue is not whether there are 5 airlines with 15 brands but whether the system has been optimized.

There is still likely a lot of duplication of hubs that has to come out even of airlines such as the LH and AF/KL groups... but part of the limitation in creating efficiency is airport capacity... no hub is capable of being large enough to take on significantly more demand. But given that the LH group heavily covers central Europe and AF/KL's hubs are in western continental Europe, there is duplication across networks.

The chances are more than less that Europe's airline industry will become more consolidated... and there will also be other independent brands out of the big 4 or 5 that don't make it.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 12:08 pm
by euroflyer
Funny how Easyjet is out of the picture...

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 12:21 pm
by airbazar
I think he's wrong. For starters IAG is not an airline.
The U.S. is a smaller market than Europe is, but a much more mature one, and yet we still have dozens of airlines. Granted, the condensed geography of Europe and good rail infrastructure make airlines less needed but to say that there will be only 5 airlines is ludicrous.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 12:25 pm
by 777klm
euroflyer wrote:
Funny how Easyjet is out of the picture...


No it's not:

Ryanair of course will be one of them, he confidently predicts, as will his big rival EasyJet

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 12:29 pm
by jmmadrid
downtown273 wrote:
IAG is BA/IB/EI + TP? Due to geographical reasons, I believe TAP would do better with IAG.



Could eventually end up being a part of IAG, maybe, but would do better with them, I wouldn´t be so sure.

Lisbon has very little to add to Madrid apart from the flights to secondary brazilian cities (a lot of prime beef for TAP but peanuts for IAG). Actually, when TAP Air Portugal was put on sale a few years ago, IAG came over with the checkbook on one hand and the pen on the other and the portuguese government said no, arguing that "hub optimisation" would probably lead to a dramatic trimming of the routes ex-Lisbon.

In addition, Lisbon´s airport is nothing to write home about, very congested and with little room for growth. Not that IAG (or anyone else) can build a massive hub there. There are talks of a new airport, but our planet will turn many many times before we see it.

I believe LH would make a better use of TAP for their american flights because it would allow them to funnel through Lisbon passengers from France, Italy and even Spain that otherwise would have to backtrack to Germany.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 12:29 pm
by mxaxai
atl100million wrote:
downtown273 wrote:
I agree with the Top 5 statement, but I think this will happen through consolidation, not through closing airlines down.

Lufthansa Group could take onboard SAS and LOT.
AF/KLM could take onboard Air Europa.
IAG is BA/IB/EI + TP? Due to geographical reasons, I believe TAP would do better with IAG.

Not sure about Finnair...

Europe is well on its way to 5 airlines even if they are operated by multiple brands.

No, there is no way only 5 airlines remain. 5 large airlines, perhaps. And even that will not happen within the next 5 years. But I don't see Icelandair, Finnair, TAP or similar local carriers disappearing as long as they focus on their strengths. There are regional airlines like FlyBe serving markets no legacy or lowcost carrier will ever want to touch. Jet2, Thomas Cook, TUI and others have a core tourism market where others cannot compete. Large LCC like Wizzair or Norwegian will continue to thrive alongside FR & U2. FWIW, even the US market still features 6 large carriers and several medium sized ones.


Sure, some like SAS, LOT or Alitalia may perish or merge. Not all LCC will survive long term. Economic issues may reduce overall demand for leisure travel. But I do not share his optimistic / pessimistic vision.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 12:32 pm
by jmmadrid
mxaxai wrote:
There are regional airlines like FlyBe serving markets no legacy or lowcost carrier will ever want to touch. Jet2, Thomas Cook, TUI and others have a core tourism market where others cannot compete.


You can add BINTER CANARIAS to that list of small and succesful regional airlines. Nice little airline with great service and lots of government contracts!

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 12:41 pm
by euroflyer
777klm wrote:
euroflyer wrote:
Funny how Easyjet is out of the picture...


No it's not:

Ryanair of course will be one of them, he confidently predicts, as will his big rival EasyJet


Yeah, I mean in the comments here

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:19 pm
by MIflyer12
mxaxai wrote:
No, there is no way only 5 airlines remain. 5 large airlines, perhaps. And even that will not happen within the next 5 years.


The U.S. is down to four with national networks (AA, DL, UA and WN) and two super-regionals (AS and B6) at about 1/3 the size of those four, plus a few carriers too small to matter much (Sorry, Spirit). AC and Aeromexico don't get consolidated because of national laws -- of the kind that won't be a factor in EU consolidation. I don't think the EU will be down to five big carriers within five years, but if passengers (and the entities paying for tickets) value network breadth over cheap point-to-point carriers the Ryanair guy has a point.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:24 pm
by seat38a
Well so it will be:
ME 3
US 3
EU 3
Maybe a LA 3 (Latin America ) Avianca, LAN, COPA

Just counting the big ones and not the LCC

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:32 pm
by SCQ83
IMO the most interesting cases are Wizzair and Norwegian.

Will they be integrated in any other carrier? In any way, the best fit for both would be IAG.

downtown273 wrote:
Not sure about Finnair...


Finnair would be a perfect fit for IAG which is (compared to AFKL and LH) weaker in Asia and Russia, which are Finnair's strengths. Finnair is already part of the TATL JV with AABAIB.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:55 pm
by mxaxai
MIflyer12 wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
No, there is no way only 5 airlines remain. 5 large airlines, perhaps. And even that will not happen within the next 5 years.


The U.S. is down to four with national networks (AA, DL, UA and WN) and two super-regionals (AS and B6) at about 1/3 the size of those four, plus a few carriers too small to matter much (Sorry, Spirit). AC and Aeromexico don't get consolidated because of national laws -- of the kind that won't be a factor in EU consolidation. I don't think the EU will be down to five big carriers within five years, but if passengers (and the entities paying for tickets) value network breadth over cheap point-to-point carriers the Ryanair guy has a point.

But isn't "cheap point-to-point" what Ryanair is all about? Additionally, network breadth is hardly relevant for most people. I could care less who flies a certain route as long as the hard product is fine and the price is right.

Aside, if we are talking large EU airlines only, we already have just 5 airlines left today. The smallest, U2, carries 2.5 times as many people as the next smaller, SAS, Norwegian and Air Berlin. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_l ... _in_Europe

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 2:08 pm
by OA940
Yes, BA, AF, LH, OS, LX, IB, A3, TP, DY, SK, BT, *DEEP INHALE* UX, JU, RC, SN, OK, KL, LO, LG, YM, SF, WF (do I even need to continue) will all fail and we'll have 5 airlines in 5 years. And they say Akbar Al Baker is crazy.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 2:09 pm
by Mortyman
Ryanair is getting free media coverage again ...

There is 3 Airlines in Norway alone and they will no doubt be alive in 5 years too

SAS, Norwegian, Widerøe

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 2:12 pm
by LXwing
Not mentioned until now are also Aeroflot and Turkish, which are not going anywhere or being consolidated any time soon.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 2:12 pm
by HTCone
Mortyman wrote:
Ryanair is getting free media coverage again ...

There is 3 Airlines in Norway alone and they will no doubt be alive in 5 years too

SAS, Norwegian, Widerøe


I wouldn't be so sure about Norwegian....

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 2:37 pm
by ElroyJetson
There has obviously been a lot of consolidation in the American market. It makes sense the same thing might happen in Europe.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 2:43 pm
by LTenEleven
Anyone who thinks airlines are like Tarom, Air Bulgaria or TAP have an independent future is living in another world. It may not be just 5 carriers (at least not in 5 years) but there is plenty consolidation still to happen in Europe.

Wizz Air is designed to be sold off.

Volotea is another potentially interesting case. Could fit in a few other carriers.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 2:46 pm
by LTenEleven
OA940 wrote:
Yes, BA, AF, LH, OS, LX, IB, A3, TP, DY, SK, BT, *DEEP INHALE* UX, JU, RC, SN, OK, KL, LO, LG, YM, SF, WF (do I even need to continue) will all fail and we'll have 5 airlines in 5 years. And they say Akbar Al Baker is crazy.


You've heard of the Lufthansa Group?
LH, LX, OS are already one, now being joined by SN.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 2:52 pm
by PanHAM
LTenEleven wrote:
..

Volotea is another potentially interesting case. Could fit in a few other carriers.


yes, but then there is always room for a new start-up named : No,coffee

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 3:38 pm
by OA940
LTenEleven wrote:
OA940 wrote:
Yes, BA, AF, LH, OS, LX, IB, A3, TP, DY, SK, BT, *DEEP INHALE* UX, JU, RC, SN, OK, KL, LO, LG, YM, SF, WF (do I even need to continue) will all fail and we'll have 5 airlines in 5 years. And they say Akbar Al Baker is crazy.


You've heard of the Lufthansa Group?
LH, LX, OS are already one, now being joined by SN.


They're not one. They are just owned by the same people. If they are named Lufthansa Austria, Switzerland and Belgium then you can say what you said. If so then BA and IB are the same as well? Nope.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 4:00 pm
by DaveFly
I think he's correct. Just as in the States, we are down to four major airlines (UA, AA, DL, and Southwest). Of course there are other airlines remaining - JetBlue, Alaska, Hawaiian), but industry consolidation has concentrated 80% of the market into the four biggies. As for Europe, the smaller airlines will be swallowed up by the majors, or they'll simply exist on the fringes.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 4:43 pm
by PatrickZ80
LXwing wrote:
Not mentioned until now are also Aeroflot and Turkish, which are not going anywhere or being consolidated any time soon.


Which is logical because those countries are not part of the EU. They are part of the European continent (although both only partly), but that doesn't make them European.

Europe will remain to have far more than 5 airlines. Indeed, some will vanish and some will merge but there are just far too many to be down to 5 in 5 years.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 4:49 pm
by LTenEleven
OA940 wrote:
LTenEleven wrote:
OA940 wrote:
Yes, BA, AF, LH, OS, LX, IB, A3, TP, DY, SK, BT, *DEEP INHALE* UX, JU, RC, SN, OK, KL, LO, LG, YM, SF, WF (do I even need to continue) will all fail and we'll have 5 airlines in 5 years. And they say Akbar Al Baker is crazy.


You've heard of the Lufthansa Group?
LH, LX, OS are already one, now being joined by SN.


They're not one. They are just owned by the same people. If they are named Lufthansa Austria, Switzerland and Belgium then you can say what you said. If so then BA and IB are the same as well? Nope.


Then you have no idea about how they are managed.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 5:20 pm
by airbazar
jmmadrid wrote:
downtown273 wrote:
IAG is BA/IB/EI + TP? Due to geographical reasons, I believe TAP would do better with IAG.



Could eventually end up being a part of IAG, maybe, but would do better with them, I wouldn´t be so sure.

Lisbon has very little to add to Madrid apart from the flights to secondary brazilian cities (a lot of prime beef for TAP but peanuts for IAG)..


I believe you're wrong on many fronts. For starters the Portuguese government is still the majority owner of TP and as long as that remains, the airline will not go anywhere. Second, TP has more destinations in Africa then ALL of IAG combined, and is expanding. Currently TP is only shy of SN's African destination total by 2. I predict that in the next 2 years TP will be the 3rd largest European airline in Africa behind AF and TK. Third, your dismissal of TP's network in Brazil, the 9th economy in the World and probably as big as all other Latin American economies combined, is naive at best. And 4th, I should remind you that IB has tried multiple times to enter those secondary markets in Brazil and failed, so clearly they don't think it's peanuts.

MIflyer12 wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
No, there is no way only 5 airlines remain. 5 large airlines, perhaps. And even that will not happen within the next 5 years.


The U.S. is down to four with national networks (AA, DL, UA and WN) and two super-regionals (AS and B6) at about 1/3 the size of those four, plus a few carriers too small to matter much (Sorry, Spirit).

I think you're wrong and I'd like to refer you to this wiki page.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a ... ted_States
A big, big part of those so called "national networks" are actually operated by the so called "few carriers too small to matter". Skywest and Republic are not too small to matter, in any way shape or form.

Let's face it, MOL is wrong. IAG is not an airline. The Lufthansa group is not an airline. Those are investment companies, diversified across multiple airlines and those 2 groups alone are comprised of 7 separate airlines and they aren't going anywhere. Well, Austrian maybe :) We all wish Alitalia would go away but I don't see it happening. TP with the deep pockets from the HNA Group is not going anywhere either. Turkish sure as hell isn't going anywhere. Norwegian, SAS, ditto. And this is just current airlines and doesn't account for any potential new airlines.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 5:57 pm
by reidar76
ElroyJetson wrote:
There has obviously been a lot of consolidation in the American market. It makes sense the same thing might happen in Europe.


I'm doubtful EU Competition Authorities and Inspectorates will allow that level of consolidation.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 6:03 pm
by YIMBY
5 airlines, not all competing in the same markets, is too few to provide effective markets with sufficient competition. The authorities should never allow such a situation. Moreover, in such a situation any of them is too big to fail, which is problematic. For the last reason the big three should not be allowed to grow more by mergers, but consolidation of smaller ones should be encouraged.

Of course, there is a solution for the lack of competition, open cabotage. That may, however, cause the risk of global gigagiants that are even more powerful.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 6:07 pm
by AirbusOnly
Oh Mr. O’Leary - if he would finally shut his malicious tongue....he was the one who had a leading part that the established airlines are struggling nowadays....and he still is even proud at it. Never ever he will rule the German market...fortunately Lufthansa is too strong and healthy and they will never ever make kowtow to this slimy guy. He destroyed the culture of cultivated airlines with his closefistness! On a lot of flights he is much more expensive then "established" airlines, who offer better Service, better maintenance, good paid staff and pilots and so on. Curse him!!! He is a slavedriver and exploiter!

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 6:12 pm
by LXwing
airbazar wrote:
jmmadrid wrote:
downtown273 wrote:
IAG is BA/IB/EI + TP? Due to geographical reasons, I believe TAP would do better with IAG.



Could eventually end up being a part of IAG, maybe, but would do better with them, I wouldn´t be so sure.

Lisbon has very little to add to Madrid apart from the flights to secondary brazilian cities (a lot of prime beef for TAP but peanuts for IAG)..


I believe you're wrong on many fronts. For starters the Portuguese government is still the majority owner of TP and as long as that remains, the airline will not go anywhere. Second, TP has more destinations in Africa then ALL of IAG combined, and is expanding. Currently TP is only shy of SN's African destination total by 2. I predict that in the next 2 years TP will be the 3rd largest European airline in Africa behind AF and TK. Third, your dismissal of TP's network in Brazil, the 9th economy in the World and probably as big as all other Latin American economies combined, is naive at best. And 4th, I should remind you that IB has tried multiple times to enter those secondary markets in Brazil and failed, so clearly they don't think it's peanuts.

MIflyer12 wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
No, there is no way only 5 airlines remain. 5 large airlines, perhaps. And even that will not happen within the next 5 years.


The U.S. is down to four with national networks (AA, DL, UA and WN) and two super-regionals (AS and B6) at about 1/3 the size of those four, plus a few carriers too small to matter much (Sorry, Spirit).

I think you're wrong and I'd like to refer you to this wiki page.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a ... ted_States
A big, big part of those so called "national networks" are actually operated by the so called "few carriers too small to matter". Skywest and Republic are not too small to matter, in any way shape or form.

Let's face it, MOL is wrong. IAG is not an airline. The Lufthansa group is not an airline. Those are investment companies, diversified across multiple airlines and those 2 groups alone are comprised of 7 separate airlines and they aren't going anywhere. Well, Austrian maybe :) We all wish Alitalia would go away but I don't see it happening. TP with the deep pockets from the HNA Group is not going anywhere either. Turkish sure as hell isn't going anywhere. Norwegian, SAS, ditto. And this is just current airlines and doesn't account for any potential new airlines.


:checkmark: This.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 6:52 pm
by PatrickZ80
AirbusOnly wrote:
Oh Mr. O’Leary - if he would finally shut his malicious tongue....he was the one who had a leading part that the established airlines are struggling nowadays....and he still is even proud at it. Never ever he will rule the German market...fortunately Lufthansa is too strong and healthy and they will never ever make kowtow to this slimy guy. He destroyed the culture of cultivated airlines with his closefistness! On a lot of flights he is much more expensive then "established" airlines, who offer better Service, better maintenance, good paid staff and pilots and so on. Curse him!!! He is a slavedriver and exploiter!


Sounds like you really hate him. I have to say I disagree with you, I think he did an excellent job.

Did he trash the profitability of the established airlines? Yes, he did. However, if he didn't somebody else would have so it would have happened anyway. The old situation just couldn't possibly continue. Besides, by lowering the prices (not just his prices, but for the whole market) he made flying accessable to a much wider public. Before Ryanair was around, most people never flew because it was far too expensive. Now it isn't so expensive anymore and therefor more people will fly. That's something to be thankful for.

Yes, Lufthansa is still a strong brand for the upper class market and I do believe that occasionally they're cheaper than Ryanair. However, last time I checked Ryanair was still mostly the cheapest and that's what counts for most people. Better service? Fine if you're looking for that, Lufthansa is still around but most people couldn't care less about the service level. Better maintenance? I seriously doubt it, Ryanair has excellent maintenance facilities. Good paid staff? Waste of money! Why pay your staff more when they are willing to do the same job for less?

Overall, I say he is a genious. He may be wrong about there being only 5 airlines left in 5 years from now, but that doesn't matter. Just the fact that we're talking about it is enough for him, it's all free publicity for Ryanair, and I think that's what he's after.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 8:51 pm
by Nola

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 9:53 pm
by LAX772LR
LTenEleven wrote:
You've heard of the Lufthansa Group?
LH, LX, OS are already one, now being joined by SN.

No they aren't.

They're separate airlines, with separate operational certificates, separate route authorities, etc... that happen to share a common corporate owner on paper.



DaveFly wrote:
Just as in the States, we are down to four major airlines (UA, AA, DL, and Southwest).

Incorrect. A "major airline" is not an opinion, it's a definitive quantity: one that derives more than $1billion in annual revenues.

There are far more major airlines in the USA than just those gour.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 4:03 am
by DaveFly
LAX772LR wrote:
LTenEleven wrote:
You've heard of the Lufthansa Group?
LH, LX, OS are already one, now being joined by SN.

No they aren't.

They're separate airlines, with separate operational certificates, separate route authorities, etc... that happen to share a common corporate owner on paper.



DaveFly wrote:
Just as in the States, we are down to four major airlines (UA, AA, DL, and Southwest).

Incorrect. A "major airline" is not an opinion, it's a definitive quantity: one that derives more than $1billion in annual revenues.

There are far more major airlines in the USA than just those gour.


Well, I don't know if it's just semantics, but these top four airlines control nearly 70% of the U.S. market. The others are peanuts in comparison:

Domestic market share of leading U.S. airlines in 2016*
Domestic market share
Southwest 19.1%
Delta 18.3%
American 16.9%
United 14.5%

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 8:47 am
by LAX772LR
DaveFly wrote:
but these top four airlines control nearly 70% of the U.S. market.

So what? That as a standalone number isn't indicative of anything per se. Keep in mind that an airline doesn't need to have a nationwide presence or concentrated percentage in order to have a significant and tangible effect on the market.

AS keeps WN (and really, everyone else) honest on the west coast. Major operations at SEA, PDX, SFO, and LAX... focii in ANC, SAN, and several others. No one's going to gouge the west under their watch, as they've proven that they won't hesitate to seize on any given market opportunity.

B6 serves the same purpose in the northeast, and increasingly in the southeast.

NK is going gangbusters in the southcentral, southeast, and midwest.

F9 has evolved from just being a foil to [email protected] to now offering ULCC service throughout the northeast, southcentral, midwest, and mountain west.

....and each one of the above are growing and are profitable. Wildly so, in some cases.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:48 am
by DaveFly
LAX772LR wrote:
DaveFly wrote:
but these top four airlines control nearly 70% of the U.S. market.

So what? That as a standalone number isn't indicative of anything per se.


I'll let the statistics speak for themselves. All of the combined airlines you mentioned account for 30% of the U.S. market. The big four alone cover 70%.

So I think O'Leary is correct that Europe, as an open market, will eventually follow.

But I'll stop arguing. It doesn't mean I think you are right. It just means I gave up.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 12:54 pm
by Btblue
Surely the airline market expands and contracts, mirroring the economy and with advanced algorithms and analysts modelling scenarios they are in the best shape possible for any scenario. I think the statement fromm O'leary is just a sensationalised headline. As others have said, no mention of easyJet! I do wonder if we'll ever see them brought under the IAG umbrella...

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:21 pm
by peterinlisbon
Low cost airlines are useful, but they don't seem able to compete on long-haul and they don't provide connections. Plus, by the time you add in the cost of luggage they are often not any cheaper.

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:26 pm
by FoxtrotSierra
Uh.. what about VS???

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:45 pm
by dtw2hyd
Here are my five groups

Ryanair
Easyjet
Norwegian
Lufthansa
SkyTeam group (KL, VS and may be AF)

Re: Ryanair: "Five years from now there will be just five European airlines

Posted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:55 pm
by Flyingabout
Fairly catastrophic prediction seeing as IAG didn't make the list.