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wwtraveler99
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Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:15 pm

Well I have been hearing many things from WN people. Also with things posted here. With this information I have come up will a Hawaii service theory. Please keep in mind this information is put together using mostly rumors I have heard from WN people, things I have seen and things I have read. I know this is being discussed somewhat on another thread but I think it deserves it on topic of discussion.

Here are the things I have based my opinion on:

1. WN now has the MAX
2. MX people supposedly have some sort of certification
3. MAX ac have everything for ETOPS except rafts
4. Gary Kelly has said he wants service to Hawaii
5. At the earning call (for 2Q) service plan were not yet set for 2H 2018
6. WN was supposed to make other announcements with the schedule release but it has been postpone. Not sure when they will announce whatever was postponed
7. Hawaii is the #1 priority
8. California
9. Alaska Airlines

Putting all this information together. In my opinion Southwest Airlines will begin Hawaii service summer 2018. It seems they have the aircraft and the maintenance portion worked out as far as ETOPS. The liferaft can easily be added in a few days. Southwest will have 20+ max aircraft by next summer. Their competition with Alaska and wanting to be number one in California seems that they need service to Hawaii. Many other freaking Flyers won Hawaii service many of their customers one Hawaii service. With the new service ads last week for California I think Hawaii is going to be next. Maybe not the announcements that were postpone but I think the next schedule update will include Hawaii.


I'm sure you'll have your own opinions and thoughts on it I'd love to hear them.


WW
 
flyguy84
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:18 pm

Hawaii is a bloodbath. Why would they want to enter the market. I don't see much upside other than just to say they fly to Hawaii.
SFO
 
Jshank83
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:21 pm

I am still of the opinion #6 of what you listed had to do with the first MAX delivery.
 
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par13del
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:31 pm

Agree that the Hawaii market is saturated at the present time, so if WN does start service my expectation would be no more that two flights per day - early and late -, 2 or 3 times per week, and from only one of the focus cities or hubs whichever you want to call it which is within range of the MAX if that is their longest ranged a/c, this service would be mostly about giving loyal WN clients direct access to the market via WN versus trying to gain market share, that would come later or not, if your loyal customers are not interested do away with the route.
 
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FLIHGH
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:34 pm

The ETOPS application is a work in progress and will be submitted this year, with review by the FAA taking anywhere from 6-18 months.
 
winginit
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:35 pm

flyguy84 wrote:
Hawaii is a bloodbath. Why would they want to enter the market. I don't see much upside other than just to say they fly to Hawaii.


Yields between the islands and the mainland are actually in excellent shape right now and are dishing out hefty profits - the market has recovered significantly and then some since the slump a few years back evidenced by the ultra-saturated LAXHNL local market holding steady at roughly $500 USD RT in the forward view.
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:44 pm

flyguy84 wrote:
Hawaii is a bloodbath. Why would they want to enter the market. I don't see much upside other than just to say they fly to Hawaii.


I don't think so. The only American LCC that flies to Hawaii is Allegiant and that's a very limited service, the market is fairly untroubled and still for the most part in the hand of the legacies. On the other hand, Hawaii sees no less than three LCCs from the other side of the pond (Air Asia X, Scoot and JetStar). I don't call Alaska an LCC, they're a hybrid carrier.

What happens if Southwest, Spirit and Frontier take a gamble for the Hawaii market? Then the bloodbath will really start. They will make Hawaii affordable for the average American which so far it isn't. And don't tell me it's too far and therefor unprofitable for LCCs. Look at what Ryanair is doing at the Canary islands in Europe, those are mostly 4 or 5 hour flights too just like California to Hawaii and available for very cheap. If it can be done in Europe, it can also be done in America.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:09 pm

G4 will end its 5 year old service to HNL in Nov. 2017 to avoid Mx checks on the two remaining 752s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allegiant_Air
There's definitely an LCC opportunity CONUS/HI.
 
osupoke07
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:19 pm

flyguy84 wrote:
... Why would they want to enter the market. ...


To reduce their Rapid Reward liability, I'm sure. (half /s)
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phluser
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:28 pm

PatrickZ80 wrote:
those are mostly 4 or 5 hour flights too just like California to Hawaii and available for very cheap. If it can be done in Europe, it can also be done in America.


California to Hawaii is between 5-7 hour of flight time.
 
JHwk
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:32 pm

winginit wrote:
flyguy84 wrote:
Hawaii is a bloodbath. Why would they want to enter the market. I don't see much upside other than just to say they fly to Hawaii.


Yields between the islands and the mainland are actually in excellent shape right now and are dishing out hefty profits - the market has recovered significantly and then some since the slump a few years back evidenced by the ultra-saturated LAXHNL local market holding steady at roughly $500 USD RT in the forward view.


Exactly; it isn't 2012 anymore. More paid first class on the legacy carriers as well. There is space for Southwest, at least until the competition brings in more widebodies. Flow through Las Vegas could really make it attractive for a lot of people as well, although LAXHNL would be more of a risk.
 
HeeseokKoo
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:33 pm

Shouldn't redeye begin first?
 
TWFlyGuy
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:34 pm

Keep in mind that while we are seeing a lot of flights today, we're not seeing the 747's & DC-10/L1011 we used to see from the West Coast. So while flights may be up significantly, the downgauging of aircraft may have seats up only marginally.

With Hawaii service, as another posted, it helps offload some Rapid Rewards liability and with AS now stronger in the CA market, it makes sense for WN to compete in this area as well.
 
b747400erf
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:40 pm

And unlike G4, WN could offer many one stop options from almost every destination they serve in America to the islands. If they can do it cheaper than mainland or AS they can get a lot of market share.
 
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usxguy
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:54 pm

Alaska hasn't been adding new Hawaiian markets in a while, United just upgauged a lot of flying, and you have HA adding 32B's to their fleet -- so not sure where there's much room for more growth. This might be one of WN's worst mistakes if they enter Hawai'i.
xx
 
ridgid727
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:28 pm

I wouldn't be surprised to see WN ad ANC well before they and HNL or OGG.
 
32andBelow
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:46 pm

ridgid727 wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised to see WN ad ANC well before they and HNL or OGG.

The ANC party is over with DL adding way too much capacity on top of AS
 
aviationjunky
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:47 pm

I wouldn't be surprised if WN took the G4 customers from LAS/LAX-HNL once G4 terminates HNL.
LAS is Life
 
barney captain
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:53 pm

I don't think your information about only needing rafts to make the MAX ETOPS certified is correct. AFAIK, the first dozen or more MAX's will not be ETOPS at all.
Southeast Of Disorder
 
ridgid727
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:18 pm

32andBelow wrote:
ridgid727 wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised to see WN ad ANC well before they and HNL or OGG.

The ANC party is over with DL adding way too much capacity on top of AS


I don't know WN wants to own DEN, so I would assume its in the cards somewhere for DEN-ANC
 
32andBelow
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:30 pm

ridgid727 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
ridgid727 wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised to see WN ad ANC well before they and HNL or OGG.

The ANC party is over with DL adding way too much capacity on top of AS


I don't know WN wants to own DEN, so I would assume its in the cards somewhere for DEN-ANC

AS couldn't make ANC/DEN work. UA is already on ANC/DEN several times per day in the summer and daily in the winter. I don't see it.
 
ridgid727
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:33 pm

32andBelow wrote:
ridgid727 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
The ANC party is over with DL adding way too much capacity on top of AS


I don't know WN wants to own DEN, so I would assume its in the cards somewhere for DEN-ANC

AS couldn't make ANC/DEN work. UA is already on ANC/DEN several times per day in the summer and daily in the winter. I don't see it.


Perhaps you are right. AS had no DEN feed which is something WN has, and when has UA stopped WN?
 
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enilria
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:41 pm

wwtraveler99 wrote:
Well I have been hearing many things from WN people. Also with things posted here. With this information I have come up will a Hawaii service theory. Please keep in mind this information is put together using mostly rumors I have heard from WN people, things I have seen and things I have read. I know this is being discussed somewhat on another thread but I think it deserves it on topic of discussion.

Here are the things I have based my opinion on:

1. WN now has the MAX
2. MX people supposedly have some sort of certification
3. MAX ac have everything for ETOPS except rafts
4. Gary Kelly has said he wants service to Hawaii
5. At the earning call (for 2Q) service plan were not yet set for 2H 2018
6. WN was supposed to make other announcements with the schedule release but it has been postpone. Not sure when they will announce whatever was postponed
7. Hawaii is the #1 priority
8. California
9. Alaska Airlines

Putting all this information together. In my opinion Southwest Airlines will begin Hawaii service summer 2018. It seems they have the aircraft and the maintenance portion worked out as far as ETOPS. The liferaft can easily be added in a few days. Southwest will have 20+ max aircraft by next summer. Their competition with Alaska and wanting to be number one in California seems that they need service to Hawaii. Many other freaking Flyers won Hawaii service many of their customers one Hawaii service. With the new service ads last week for California I think Hawaii is going to be next. Maybe not the announcements that were postpone but I think the next schedule update will include Hawaii.


I'm sure you'll have your own opinions and thoughts on it I'd love to hear them.


WW

They still can't do scheduled red eyes due to the ops system software. I am not aware of a date for that to be completed, but I know it's on their roadmap. They could technically do Hawaii without red eyes, but my guess is the economics require red eyes to work.
 
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11725Flyer
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:46 pm

usxguy wrote:
Alaska hasn't been adding new Hawaiian markets in a while, United just upgauged a lot of flying, and you have HA adding 32B's to their fleet -- so not sure where there's much room for more growth. This might be one of WN's worst mistakes if they enter Hawai'i.


Good points. (No pun intended.) But, if you're a member of Rapid Rewards, you want to have the option to go to Hawaii. For that reason alone, I think WN will announce Hawaii service sometime in the near future.
 
77H
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:55 pm

phluser wrote:
PatrickZ80 wrote:
those are mostly 4 or 5 hour flights too just like California to Hawaii and available for very cheap. If it can be done in Europe, it can also be done in America.


California to Hawaii is between 5-7 hour of flight time.


I've never been on a California to Hawaii flight that has been over 6 hrs with the strongest headwinds.

77H
 
catdaddy63
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:05 pm

I've always felt that Hawaii was the reason WN changed the rapid rewards system from the old 8 round trips equals a free ticket to the current points/revenue based system.
 
32andBelow
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:10 pm

ridgid727 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
ridgid727 wrote:

I don't know WN wants to own DEN, so I would assume its in the cards somewhere for DEN-ANC

AS couldn't make ANC/DEN work. UA is already on ANC/DEN several times per day in the summer and daily in the winter. I don't see it.


Perhaps you are right. AS had no DEN feed which is something WN has, and when has UA stopped WN?

But AS has a ton of ANC feed and is Alaska's hometown airline.
 
MrBretz
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:26 pm

77H, I just looked at AA's flight from LAX to KOA. Two have been just over 6 hours in the last week. I used flightaware and don't know if that includes taxi time at LAX. And I recall one last winter that I was on that was about 6 1/4 from wheels up to touchdown on a UA 737. I was looking at my watch wondering how long a 737 can stay airborne. On the other hand, I recall the return taking under 5 hours a couple times.
 
boeing777200lr
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:30 pm

catdaddy63 wrote:
I've always felt that Hawaii was the reason WN changed the rapid rewards system from the old 8 round trips equals a free ticket to the current points/revenue based system.


Im not going to lie the new point system seems to be better when it comes to getting free tickets, Because sometimes those one way prices can be as low as 2000 pts
 
32andBelow
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:39 pm

MrBretz wrote:
77H, I just looked at AA's flight from LAX to KOA. Two have been just over 6 hours in the last week. I used flightaware and don't know if that includes taxi time at LAX. And I recall one last winter that I was on that was about 6 1/4 from wheels up to touchdown on a UA 737. I was looking at my watch wondering how long a 737 can stay airborne. On the other hand, I recall the return taking under 5 hours a couple times.

LAXKOA is cake compared to ANCKOA
 
catdaddy63
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:57 pm

boeing777200lr wrote:
catdaddy63 wrote:
I've always felt that Hawaii was the reason WN changed the rapid rewards system from the old 8 round trips equals a free ticket to the current points/revenue based system.


Im not going to lie the new point system seems to be better when it comes to getting free tickets, Because sometimes those one way prices can be as low as 2000 pts


Agreed, but giving someone a free ticket to Hawaii after buying 8 cheap DAL-HOU roundtrips made no sense at all. I still have a lot of WN points from when i was A-list preferred.
 
airzona11
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:42 am

catdaddy63 wrote:
boeing777200lr wrote:
catdaddy63 wrote:
I've always felt that Hawaii was the reason WN changed the rapid rewards system from the old 8 round trips equals a free ticket to the current points/revenue based system.


Im not going to lie the new point system seems to be better when it comes to getting free tickets, Because sometimes those one way prices can be as low as 2000 pts


Agreed, but giving someone a free ticket to Hawaii after buying 8 cheap DAL-HOU roundtrips made no sense at all. I still have a lot of WN points from when i was A-list preferred.


If that was the case, WN would have certainly been flying to Hawaii. The change happened what, 7 years ago? Plus it is quicker to use companion pass flights and fly to PVR etc.

Others have noted the space is very competitive right now. Not sure WN needs to add it. I wouldn't mind it sure but WN has been retrenching on the shorter flights, that is their bread and butter. Each segment to the islands takes a lot of plane and with the 733s leaving, they don't have a plethora laying around.

That being said, WN has a massive presence at OAK/SJC/LAX/SAN/SMF that could all fill 738s to the islands. But that would be duplicating what is already being flown.

Product wise, having recently done HNL/OGG with 757s and 777s, I wouldn't put WN behind what AA or UA has on the routes.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:59 am

32andBelow wrote:
ridgid727 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
AS couldn't make ANC/DEN work. UA is already on ANC/DEN several times per day in the summer and daily in the winter. I don't see it.


Perhaps you are right. AS had no DEN feed which is something WN has, and when has UA stopped WN?

But AS has a ton of ANC feed and is Alaska's hometown airline.


Not really, especially compared to WN at DEN. I'll also add that there can't be that much feed considering the only destinations from outside the Pacific Northwest that AS serves from ANC (that aren't AS hubs) are LAS(seasonal), PHX(seasonal), ORD(seasonal), and HNL
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
rajincajun01
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:29 am

32andBelow wrote:
ridgid727 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
The ANC party is over with DL adding way too much capacity on top of AS


I don't know WN wants to own DEN, so I would assume its in the cards somewhere for DEN-ANC

AS couldn't make ANC/DEN work. UA is already on ANC/DEN several times per day in the summer and daily in the winter. I don't see it.


It wasn't that AS didn't make DEN-ANC work. It's even in discussion to come back as more aircraft are delivered. There are usually 40-60 people who connect to ANC on the last two departures combined. The UA flight is regularly on weight restriction, so they often push even more to AS when seats are available.
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wwtraveler99
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:34 am

Jshank83 wrote:
I am still of the opinion #6 of what you listed had to do with the first MAX delivery.


It is quite possible

par13del wrote:
Agree that the Hawaii market is saturated at the present time, so if WN does start service my expectation would be no more that two flights per day - early and late -, 2 or 3 times per week, and from only one of the focus cities or hubs whichever you want to call it which is within range of the MAX if that is their longest ranged a/c, this service would be mostly about giving loyal WN clients direct access to the market via WN versus trying to gain market share, that would come later or not, if your loyal customers are not interested do away with the route.


Maybe it is saturated during the high season. I just flew LAS-HNL in Aug. Flight was full and it was actually cheaper from LAS than LAX SFO or OAK. Paid $750 round trip. Not sure the yield because I don't know what the gate vs taxes were. Fare from the west coast were all $800++.

FLIHGH wrote:
The ETOPS application is a work in progress and will be submitted this year, with review by the FAA taking anywhere from 6-18 months.


Yes I do understand the process can be quite long. I know there is more to do for ETOPS. I am just going by things I have heard from those at WN. According to more than one person some maintenance (behind the scenes stuff I assume maintence manuals) have been done already. They still HAV eto operate ETOPS flight to show than everything they told the FAA is being completed as required. But that still puts a summer schedule well wothin reach of starting service.

HeeseokKoo wrote:
Shouldn't redeye begin first?


I forgot to add that I have heard that should be fixed before summer 2018. I am not sure if it will just be temporary or permenant.

barney captain wrote:
I don't think your information about only needing rafts to make the MAX ETOPS certified is correct. AFAIK, the first dozen or more MAX's will not be ETOPS at all.


Heard from a few that the plane will not be full ETOPS when delivered. But the hard to add things are installed. From someone in MX they claim that rafts take 3-5 days to be installed. And that all the additional equipment required.

airzona11 wrote:
catdaddy63 wrote:
boeing777200lr wrote:

Im not going to lie the new point system seems to be better when it comes to getting free tickets, Because sometimes those one way prices can be as low as 2000 pts


Agreed, but giving someone a free ticket to Hawaii after buying 8 cheap DAL-HOU roundtrips made no sense at all. I still have a lot of WN points from when i was A-list preferred.



Product wise, having recently done HNL/OGG with 757s and 777s, I wouldn't put WN behind what AA or UA has on the routes.


When you say product are you referring to aircraft type or the actual service on board? I have flew both WN And all the legacies. Service wise (in coach class only) WN aus equal to or better in many cases. You can disagree if you like but that is my expirence.

Once again. I have no first hand knowledge of WN starting service to the Islands. But many factors point to it happening sooner rather than later.

Lots of good speculation on here. Many opinions one way or the other.

WW
 
santi319
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:48 am

Speaking of ANC, wasn't NK looking at ANC-LAS/LAX or something?
 
32andBelow
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:47 am

Midwestindy wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
ridgid727 wrote:

Perhaps you are right. AS had no DEN feed which is something WN has, and when has UA stopped WN?

But AS has a ton of ANC feed and is Alaska's hometown airline.


Not really, especially compared to WN at DEN. I'll also add that there can't be that much feed considering the only destinations from outside the Pacific Northwest that AS serves from ANC (that aren't AS hubs) are LAS(seasonal), PHX(seasonal), ORD(seasonal), and HNL

You missed. LAX, OGG, KOA
 
allegiantflyer
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:09 am

I have come to the realization that WN fanatics will never truly be satisfied until WN flies to Hawaii.
 
wwtraveler99
Topic Author
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:46 am

allegiantflyer wrote:
I have come to the realization that WN fanatics will never truly be satisfied until WN flies to Hawaii.



I think the big reason is because Gary Kelly was quoted back in about 2010 that Southwest would gontpnHawaii as soon as they received the 800s. Then it seems there was an excuse every year and AS began service during that time. I am sure after Hawaii there will be something else they will want.


WW
 
rbavfan
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:55 am

PatrickZ80 wrote:
flyguy84 wrote:
Hawaii is a bloodbath. Why would they want to enter the market. I don't see much upside other than just to say they fly to Hawaii.


I don't think so. The only American LCC that flies to Hawaii is Allegiant and that's a very limited service, the market is fairly untroubled and still for the most part in the hand of the legacies. On the other hand, Hawaii sees no less than three LCCs from the other side of the pond (Air Asia X, Scoot and JetStar). I don't call Alaska an LCC, they're a hybrid carrier.

What happens if Southwest, Spirit and Frontier take a gamble for the Hawaii market? Then the bloodbath will really start. They will make Hawaii affordable for the average American which so far it isn't. And don't tell me it's too far and therefor unprofitable for LCCs. Look at what Ryanair is doing at the Canary islands in Europe, those are mostly 4 or 5 hour flights too just like California to Hawaii and available for very cheap. If it can be done in Europe, it can also be done in America.


Yeah they can get to Hawaii and not know the LLC model does not work for food & lodging.
 
rbavfan
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:03 am

aviationjunky wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised if WN took the G4 customers from LAS/LAX-HNL once G4 terminates HNL.



Hawaiian already has 2-3 A330 to LAS daily depending on the season.
 
reltney
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:07 am

Would I want to fly on a SW 737 to Hawaii...... &:@,?#£}# NO..... a fluf to Hawaii no frisking way and especially SW. cheaper on other airlines and more comfortable......

I'll pass......
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OUTLAW KNIVES.

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FATFlyer
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:20 am

West Coast to Hawaii could be even busier than discussed in this thread so far.

This week new Sun Country CEO Jude Bricker said "Sun Country will likely fly from Los Angeles to Hawaii next summer, Bricker said. And it plans to run routes from major Northeast markets to Florida during the 12-week season between February and Easter."
http://www.travelweekly.com/Travel-News/Airline-News/Big-changes-coming-at-Sun-Country
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737max8
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:40 am

There is so much misinformation in this thread! Sounds like the "WN people" talking are the ones that have zero clue what they are talking about. But reading the speculation is quite entertaining.
The thoughts and opinions expressed in my comments do not represent that of any airline or affiliate.
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PatrickZ80
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:14 am

rbavfan wrote:
Yeah they can get to Hawaii and not know the LLC model does not work for food & lodging.


It does, you just have to look for it. Of course it's all relative, but there are some cheap places to stay and eat on Hawaii. Plus, if you can't save on food and lodging you need to save on whatever you can save on starting with your flight ticket. That's the only way to keep your stay there at least a bit affordable.

I've seen it before, people fly the cheapest flight they can get to their desination and then stay in an expensive resort. Their reasoning is that if they'd spend more on their flight they wouldn't be able to afford that expensive resort.
 
jpetekyxmd80
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:28 am

PatrickZ80 wrote:
flyguy84 wrote:
Hawaii is a bloodbath. Why would they want to enter the market. I don't see much upside other than just to say they fly to Hawaii.


I don't think so. The only American LCC that flies to Hawaii is Allegiant and that's a very limited service, the market is fairly untroubled and still for the most part in the hand of the legacies. On the other hand, Hawaii sees no less than three LCCs from the other side of the pond (Air Asia X, Scoot and JetStar). I don't call Alaska an LCC, they're a hybrid carrier.

What happens if Southwest, Spirit and Frontier take a gamble for the Hawaii market? Then the bloodbath will really start. They will make Hawaii affordable for the average American which so far it isn't. And don't tell me it's too far and therefor unprofitable for LCCs. Look at what Ryanair is doing at the Canary islands in Europe, those are mostly 4 or 5 hour flights too just like California to Hawaii and available for very cheap. If it can be done in Europe, it can also be done in America.



If you think "the Southwest effect" is relevant in 2017 you don't know much about their business these days.

And If you think you think Southwest will magically come in and make Hawaii 'affordable', you haven't been paying any attention to Hawaii. I've paid low 200s roundtrip from Bay area to Hawaii. Alaska/Hawaiian competition has been some of the fiercest in the country the last 5 years. What do you think Southwest is going to charge?? News flash: they're not cheap anymore.

How can you even compare Southwest to Frontier and Spirit? You're better off comparing United with that crowd. Makes no sense.

If you think Southwest can just swoop in to a crowded, competitive market, offer expensive benefits no one else is offering (free bags), more legroom than most competitors, and start undercutting and drastically impacting the fares in the market... well think about that. Do they have a magic wand?
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TWA772LR
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:31 am

HeeseokKoo wrote:
Shouldn't redeye begin first?

Yes they should. IMO WN stands to reap much more benefits from TCON redeyes than Hawaii.

And most of Hawaii-mainland flights are redeye anyways.
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allegiantflyer
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:47 am

wwtraveler99 wrote:
allegiantflyer wrote:
I have come to the realization that WN fanatics will never truly be satisfied until WN flies to Hawaii.



I think the big reason is because Gary Kelly was quoted back in about 2010 that Southwest would gontpnHawaii as soon as they received the 800s. Then it seems there was an excuse every year and AS began service during that time. I am sure after Hawaii there will be something else they will want.


WW


Appears the merger with AirTran wasn't enough, international wasn't enough. Hawaii has always been the crown jewel for WN fanatics.

Also, AS didn't fly to Hawaii until 2010??
 
asteriskceo
Posts: 501
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 9:24 am

Can't reveal my sources, but the Hawaii announcement is imminent. It was supposed to be announced with the delivery of their first MAX8, but was delayed due to Hurricane Harvey.

Initial service will rival Alaska's service out of California.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 10:08 am

32andBelow wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
But AS has a ton of ANC feed and is Alaska's hometown airline.


Not really, especially compared to WN at DEN. I'll also add that there can't be that much feed considering the only destinations from outside the Pacific Northwest that AS serves from ANC (that aren't AS hubs) are LAS(seasonal), PHX(seasonal), ORD(seasonal), and HNL

You missed. LAX, OGG, KOA



Doesn't really matter considering I proved my point, and LAX is an AS hub...
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