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SyracuseAvGeek
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:11 pm

MrBretz wrote:
77H, I just looked at AA's flight from LAX to KOA. Two have been just over 6 hours in the last week. I used flightaware and don't know if that includes taxi time at LAX. And I recall one last winter that I was on that was about 6 1/4 from wheels up to touchdown on a UA 737. I was looking at my watch wondering how long a 737 can stay airborne. On the other hand, I recall the return taking under 5 hours a couple times.


I was on a UA 737-800 from ORD-ANC and from takeoff to touchdown it was 6hr 45min.
"I haven't been everywhere yet, but it's on my list."
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 5:13 pm

par13del wrote:
Agree that the Hawaii market is saturated at the present time, so if WN does start service my expectation would be no more that two flights per day - early and late -, 2 or 3 times per week, and from only one of the focus cities or hubs whichever you want to call it which is within range of the MAX if that is their longest ranged a/c, this service would be mostly about giving loyal WN clients direct access to the market via WN versus trying to gain market share, that would come later or not, if your loyal customers are not interested do away with the route.


And the Boston market was saturated when they entered there. WN FFs wanted service to BOS
LGA, EWR and DCA were not short on competition when WN entered.
DEN was a 2-way hub already when WN stormed in.
When WN sees a market that their passengers (FFs) request and where they think they can command market share from other airlines, they check it out.

Hawaii is only a matter of time and I think that time is drawing close as this thread suggests. Recent growth at SJC, SMF suggest that they may be early Hawaii dots, maybe after starting with SAN, LAX and OAK. The Max7.5 might bring along PHX, LAS and maybe even DEN. Long beach could be a dark horse. SNA may have too many limits and SFO may not be worth the fight unless they want to slap at AS.

As for red-eyes, yes, they would help optimize Hawaii operations, but they could start without. They might be able to accommodate a few (shortish) same-day connections with a 2-3PM turn in Hawaii. Another option is to just RON the aircraft in Hawaii and you can have full connections.
 
hiloboy1
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:39 pm

Who wants to take the bet, West Coast to Hilo by December......let the flaming begin.
 
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barney captain
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:00 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
HeeseokKoo wrote:
Shouldn't redeye begin first?


And most of Hawaii-mainland flights are redeye anyways.


Not even remotely accurate.

Most flights leave Cali mid-morning and arrive mid-day. The return leaves roughly 90 minutes later for an arrival @ 8pm.

In fact, unless it's changed, AS services the market with only one redeye - to SEA.
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jpetekyxmd80
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:05 pm

Correct. The legacy carriers are about half and half, with redeyes good for connectivity. Alaska and Hawaiian, reliant on local west coast traffic, are almost all non-red eye.
The Best Care in the Air, 1984-2009
 
32andBelow
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:08 pm

barney captain wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
HeeseokKoo wrote:
Shouldn't redeye begin first?


And most of Hawaii-mainland flights are redeye anyways.


Not even remotely accurate.

Most flights leave Cali mid-morning and arrive mid-day. The return leaves roughly 90 minutes later for an arrival @ 8pm.

In fact, unless it's changed, AS services the market with only one redeye - to SEA.

They have a redeye to ANC
 
aviationjunky
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:53 pm

rbavfan wrote:
Hawaiian already has 2-3 A330 to LAS daily depending on the season.


HA gets rather expensive on a lot of their flights. WN could get the G4 passengers who aren't looking to pay $800 for an economy ticket, granted G4 is only about $100 cheaper with seats and bags, but it's still cheaper. The other thing WN could have over G4 is they could do more than a couple flights a week.
LAS is Life
 
phluser
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 9:03 pm

77H wrote:
phluser wrote:
PatrickZ80 wrote:
those are mostly 4 or 5 hour flights too just like California to Hawaii and available for very cheap. If it can be done in Europe, it can also be done in America.


California to Hawaii is between 5-7 hour of flight time.


I've never been on a California to Hawaii flight that has been over 6 hrs with the strongest headwinds.

77H


https://flightaware.com/live/flight/ASA895

From 7/21-7/29, the duration was over 6 hours for these AS SAN-HNL flights. If we want to get nitpicky, 5-6.5 hours is more approximate, but it makes a huge difference from 4 hours to going over the 5 hr mark, especially for WN.
Last edited by phluser on Fri Sep 01, 2017 9:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 9:13 pm

IF WN starts HAWAII in 2018.
I see a HNL being the first wave in JUNE.
Then followed by OGG in July and KOA in AUG.
For the first wave of HNL service if the Red eye issues are worked out I see a schedule like this.
LAX-HNL
06:00-09:20
08:00-11:20
16:25-19:45
21:25-00:45
HNL-LAX
06:00-14:45
11:00-19:45
13:10-21:55
21:25-06:15+1
OAK-HNL
10:00-13:45
22:00-01:45
HNL-OAK
11:20-20:20
23:05-08:05+1
SMF-HNL
06:00-09:40
HNL-SMF
15:10-23:55
SJC-HNL
17:55-21:35
HNL-SJC
07:00-16:05

That's my predictions
Enjoy Flyguy
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OzarkD9S
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 9:26 pm

Its too bad WN cant work out some sort of FF deal with HA for rewards to Hawaii. Would let them focus on other things. But egos still count for something in the airline game.
"My soul is in the sky". -Pyramus- A Midsummer's Night Dream
 
jetwet1
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 9:40 pm

LotsaRunway wrote:
par13del wrote:
Agree that the Hawaii market is saturated at the present time, so if WN does start service my expectation would be no more that two flights per day - early and late -, 2 or 3 times per week, and from only one of the focus cities or hubs whichever you want to call it which is within range of the MAX if that is their longest ranged a/c, this service would be mostly about giving loyal WN clients direct access to the market via WN versus trying to gain market share, that would come later or not, if your loyal customers are not interested do away with the route.


And the Boston market was saturated when they entered there. WN FFs wanted service to BOS
LGA, EWR and DCA were not short on competition when WN entered.
DEN was a 2-way hub already when WN stormed in.
When WN sees a market that their passengers (FFs) request and where they think they can command market share from other airlines, they check it out.

Hawaii is only a matter of time and I think that time is drawing close as this thread suggests. Recent growth at SJC, SMF suggest that they may be early Hawaii dots, maybe after starting with SAN, LAX and OAK. The Max7.5 might bring along PHX, LAS and maybe even DEN. Long beach could be a dark horse. SNA may have too many limits and SFO may not be worth the fight unless they want to slap at AS.

As for red-eyes, yes, they would help optimize Hawaii operations, but they could start without. They might be able to accommodate a few (shortish) same-day connections with a 2-3PM turn in Hawaii. Another option is to just RON the aircraft in Hawaii and you can have full connections.


Totally agree, people on here miss the fact that when it comes to California, WN is the 800lb gorilla, if they decide to start flying into the Hawaii market, they probably won't grow it, but they will cause a world of hurt to some of the established airlines in that market.
 
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KanaHawaii
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 10:08 pm

It could very well be that Southwest is still trying to figure out how to enter the market, saturated as it is, in the traditional Southwest way of flooding the market with service right off the bat. One of those factors may be gate space at HNL and maybe even OGG or KOA. As noted before United and Hawaiian are or have increased service by quite a bit, and the physical presence of those airlines in those places are only increasing. So we might not see SW come into the market until the modification of the interisland terminal at HNL is done, which will increase the number of gates and maybe providing SW with a place to run their initial operations.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 10:57 pm

flyguy84 wrote:
Hawaii is a bloodbath. Why would they want to enter the market. I don't see much upside other than just to say they fly to Hawaii.

The Bloodbath is NOT in Hawaii! The Bloodbath would begin if Southwest goes there and doesn't provide the needed resources for the mission.. Other than that? Hawaii is a cakewalk. If Aloha could do it? So can Southwest, unless they're too chicken to try!
That would be the ONLY reason they won't go.
The only things I can think of as to Why they haven't already gone is they don't have the fuel upload configuration and they haven't finished their preparation
for the ETOPS procedures for their proving runs, haven't segregated their ETOPS certified parts and Manuals at the proper stations or don't have ETOPS certified mechanics where they intend to fly. Because they Have to have ETOPS trained and certified mechanics on the Hawaii end of the operation as they'll have to accomplish ETOPS checks for both directions. It's not a "slam! bam! thank you Maam" deal ..
 
airzona11
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:00 pm

[quote="wwtraveler99"

When you say product are you referring to aircraft type or the actual service on board? I have flew both WN And all the legacies. Service wise (in coach class only) WN aus equal to or better in many cases. You can disagree if you like but that is my expirence.

Once again. I have no first hand knowledge of WN starting service to the Islands. But many factors point to it happening sooner rather than later.

Lots of good speculation on here. Many opinions one way or the other.

WW[/quote]

I was referring to the service and I agree.

WN has very respectable aircraft utilization, I am not sure I get the obsession with posters saying that they "need" to offer red eyes. Red eyes are not the highest yielding flights, outside of few key markets, what is the value add? They aren't going to get the premium Transcon traffic and while they are the largest domestic carrier, don't compete nearly as much transcon.

Another aspect is they would probably dedicate a subfleet of ETOPS 73Ms, adding a layer of scheduling variability they dont have today, doable sure, but just new to WN.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:05 pm

aviationjunky wrote:
rbavfan wrote:
Hawaiian already has 2-3 A330 to LAS daily depending on the season.


HA gets rather expensive on a lot of their flights. WN could get the G4 passengers who aren't looking to pay $800 for an economy ticket, granted G4 is only about $100 cheaper with seats and bags, but it's still cheaper. The other thing WN could have over G4 is they could do more than a couple flights a week.

A
I'd bet GOOD Money WN can't get there any cheaper than Hawaiian, United or Alaskan And? Were United willing to fly there with Fully Amortized A319's and A320's??
They couldn't get there as cheaply. Southwest just needs to GO and quit talking about it.. They don't have any reason NOT to Go!!
 
airzona11
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:06 pm

aviationjunky wrote:
rbavfan wrote:
Hawaiian already has 2-3 A330 to LAS daily depending on the season.


HA gets rather expensive on a lot of their flights. WN could get the G4 passengers who aren't looking to pay $800 for an economy ticket, granted G4 is only about $100 cheaper with seats and bags, but it's still cheaper. The other thing WN could have over G4 is they could do more than a couple flights a week.


I think HA/UA/AA/DL/AS all compete just as much for G4 passengers as WN would. You are missing something "WN Might have over G4" and that is they are the largest domestic US airline. They have just as much and in some cases more connecting opportunities 1-stop via LAX (among all the other CA airports) on top of a large FF population.

G4 is nearly irrelevant in the Hawaii market.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:07 pm

I find it funny that people are still questioning whether WN will enter Hawaii... News Flash! It's happening people!

HI is not a bloodbath either, and if any airline were to be successful entering the HI market it would be WN....
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
strfyr51
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:11 pm

KanaHawaii wrote:
It could very well be that Southwest is still trying to figure out how to enter the market, saturated as it is, in the traditional Southwest way of flooding the market with service right off the bat. One of those factors may be gate space at HNL and maybe even OGG or KOA. As noted before United and Hawaiian are or have increased service by quite a bit, and the physical presence of those airlines in those places are only increasing. So we might not see SW come into the market until the modification of the interisland terminal at HNL is done, which will increase the number of gates and maybe providing SW with a place to run their initial operations.


What do they need?? 3 open gates at HNL at a time?? They could arrange that. HNL will find the room for them.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Sat Sep 02, 2017 12:56 am

strfyr51 wrote:
KanaHawaii wrote:
It could very well be that Southwest is still trying to figure out how to enter the market, saturated as it is, in the traditional Southwest way of flooding the market with service right off the bat. One of those factors may be gate space at HNL and maybe even OGG or KOA. As noted before United and Hawaiian are or have increased service by quite a bit, and the physical presence of those airlines in those places are only increasing. So we might not see SW come into the market until the modification of the interisland terminal at HNL is done, which will increase the number of gates and maybe providing SW with a place to run their initial operations.


What do they need?? 3 open gates at HNL at a time?? They could arrange that. HNL will find the room for them.


WN and HNL gates isn't a big issue.
From reliable sources WN has inquiries about Hard Stand and busses for HNL short term fix.
It's learned and has had quite successful operation like that in PUJ.
Would be easy for WN to alter Boarding for Hawaii operations.
It's not like Hawaii has horrible weather.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
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barney captain
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Sat Sep 02, 2017 2:47 am

wnflyguy wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
KanaHawaii wrote:
It could very well be that Southwest is still trying to figure out how to enter the market, saturated as it is, in the traditional Southwest way of flooding the market with service right off the bat. One of those factors may be gate space at HNL and maybe even OGG or KOA. As noted before United and Hawaiian are or have increased service by quite a bit, and the physical presence of those airlines in those places are only increasing. So we might not see SW come into the market until the modification of the interisland terminal at HNL is done, which will increase the number of gates and maybe providing SW with a place to run their initial operations.


What do they need?? 3 open gates at HNL at a time?? They could arrange that. HNL will find the room for them.


WN and HNL gates isn't a big issue.
From reliable sources WN has inquiries about Hard Stand and busses for HNL short term fix.
It's learned and has had quite successful operation like that in PUJ.
Would be easy for WN to alter Boarding for Hawaii operations.
It's not like Hawaii has horrible weather.

Flyguy


We frequently use hard stands in both SJD and PVR as well - no issue.
Southeast Of Disorder
 
AirFiero
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:23 pm

As long as we are speculating, what about WN entering inter island service by tagging on the inter island flights, which would allow them to serve more islands at once with the same number of aircraft? Let's say they do nonstops to HNL from OAK, SMF, SJC, and SAN from the mainland, arriving midday, then fan them out to the other islands. Do the reverse going east, and four round trips from the mainland cover all other major airports in the islands.

I know that WN doesn't like to do traditional hubs and connections, but HNL seems a perfect place for WN to do a pretty painless small hub operation.
 
Aptivaboy
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:02 pm

AirFiero,

Delta did something like that back in the nineties, flying a widebody (usually a DC-10 or L-1011, but occasionally a 767) LAX to HNL. Then, they'd pick up a load of passengers, or a few folks who wanted to fly to Maui would remain onboard. The plane would be on the ground briefly and then fly HNL-OGG and offload. Then, pick up a load of vacationers heading home and fly OGG-LAX. I flew this once, coming home on a nice shiny L1011, my first and only L1011 flight, and what a gorgeous bird she was, too. I believe they also flew that route in reverse to attract more passengers, and possibly LAX-HNL-Big Island and back (my memory is hazy on that last route). It allowed them to schedule widebody service into smaller outlying island airports, and pick up a few commuter passengers simply flying from one island to another, adding to revenue. This was before the days of frequency being king, but they did it.

Now, why is this time machine trip important? Because it would be a very nice, logical way for Southwest to enter the Hawaiian market without having to have a true, hard core interisland operation up and running all at once. As long as they had a spare 737 on hand to cover weather delays and such, they'd be able to capture both mainland-Hawaii passengers and some commuting interisland passengers in one fell swoop. As their hypothetical Hawaii operation picked up steam, then they'd be able to offer dedicated interisland service, assuming they could fly the 737 without burning the engines out with those short turnaround times.

Anyway, Delta made it work for a number of years. It might prove to be a useful template for Southwest.
Last edited by Aptivaboy on Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Aptivaboy
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:05 pm

Forgot, I remember when Kahalui and Hilo were hardstand operations, just like SNA and ONT. It wasn't a problem. I actually enjoyed walking out to the plane and as wnflyguy said, it's not like the weather is horrible.
 
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SANFan
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:52 pm

Aptivaboy wrote:
Forgot, I remember when Kahalui and Hilo were hardstand operations, just like SNA and ONT. It wasn't a problem. I actually enjoyed walking out to the plane and as wnflyguy said, it's not like the weather is horrible.

Except you and your stuff could get real wet, real quickly; it does rain in the Islands quite often... I sure wouldn't enjoy sitting in wet clothes for 5-6 hours flying back to the mainland! But that's just me.

bb
 
Aptivaboy
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:41 pm

Which is where a nice covering or roofed exterior boarding area comes in. ONT used to have these, complete with some nice wrought iron bench seating and red brick rose planters. All of that is long gone, now, but it was actually a very nice experience sitting outside in the shade smelling the roses while waiting for boarding to open up. You weren't out in the open for more than a couple of minutes waiting to walk up the stairs. Anyway, nothing is insurmountable. If hardstands and exterior loading are required in the short term, then Southwest can surely make it happen for a few months or a year until interior gate access can be arranged or built.
 
AirFiero
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:54 pm

Aptivaboy wrote:
AirFiero,

Delta did something like that back in the nineties, flying a widebody (usually a DC-10 or L-1011, but occasionally a 767) LAX to HNL. Then, they'd pick up a load of passengers, or a few folks who wanted to fly to Maui would remain onboard. The plane would be on the ground briefly and then fly HNL-OGG and offload. Then, pick up a load of vacationers heading home and fly OGG-LAX. I flew this once, coming home on a nice shiny L1011, my first and only L1011 flight, and what a gorgeous bird she was, too. I believe they also flew that route in reverse to attract more passengers, and possibly LAX-HNL-Big Island and back (my memory is hazy on that last route). It allowed them to schedule widebody service into smaller outlying island airports, and pick up a few commuter passengers simply flying from one island to another, adding to revenue. This was before the days of frequency being king, but they did it.

Now, why is this time machine trip important? Because it would be a very nice, logical way for Southwest to enter the Hawaiian market without having to have a true, hard core interisland operation up and running all at once. As long as they had a spare 737 on hand to cover weather delays and such, they'd be able to capture both mainland-Hawaii passengers and some commuting interisland passengers in one fell swoop. As their hypothetical Hawaii operation picked up steam, then they'd be able to offer dedicated interisland service, assuming they could fly the 737 without burning the engines out with those short turnaround times.

Anyway, Delta made it work for a number of years. It might prove to be a useful template for Southwest.


I wasn't sure whether WN would want to jump into the inter-island market, but as long as we are speculating...what do you folks think about it? Send a few frames over there and let 'em rip between the islands? Can you imagine the kind of frequency and fares WN might bring?
 
kiowa
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:23 pm

Anything over 3 hrs in a cramped, single-isle 737 is too long.
 
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SANFan
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:54 pm

After reading thru the posts on this thread, I'm still hoping to get some clarification on comments made by 2 posters in the "WN Schedule Extension 8/28/17" thread: Link: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1371077&hilit=out+WN

From reply #215 by Barney Captain posted 8/27:
"Fact - The MX personnel I have spoken to directly in the last 2 days have told me their ETOP's mx bids have been awarded - SJC, SMF and SAN."

and from reply #219 by Midwestindy, also posted on 8/27:
"According to someone who spoke with OAK mechanics about the ETOPS awards yesterday, he said 8 each going to SMF and SJC and then 20 (or may have been 24) going to SAN."

So when I see a post such as this (poster noted):
by wnflyguy » Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:13 pm

IF WN starts HAWAII in 2018.
I see a HNL being the first wave in JUNE.
Then followed by OGG in July and KOA in AUG.
For the first wave of HNL service if the Red eye issues are worked out I see a schedule like this.
LAX-HNL-LAX...

OAK-HNL-OAK...

SMF-HNL-SMF...

SJC-HNL-SJC...

That's my predictions
Enjoy Flyguy

without SAN even mentioned, I just wonder what the the ETOPS Awards mentioned earlier in this post really mean? My interpretation would be that SMF, SJC and SAN would at least be a large part of the ETOPS program, and would certainly be involved with flights to Hawaii. To the exclusion of OAK and LAX? Maybe they already have ETOPS awards? Or perhaps those airports are already bursting at the seams so WN is going to spread things out a bit? Dunno know... but sure would like to. Then perhaps I could come up with a theory about WN and Hawaii -- how and where?

bb
Last edited by SANFan on Mon Sep 04, 2017 6:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
ytib
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Mon Sep 04, 2017 6:02 pm

AirFiero wrote:

I wasn't sure whether WN would want to jump into the inter-island market, but as long as we are speculating...what do you folks think about it? Send a few frames over there and let 'em rip between the islands? Can you imagine the kind of frequency and fares WN might bring?


That is not going to happen. Legs like SMF-HNL-OGG-OAK would be possible, but a dedicated fleet in Hawaii would have issues with the engines as discussed in the past.

viewtopic.php?t=770237
318, 319, 320, 321, 332, 333, 388, 707, 717, 722, 732, 733, 734, 73Q, 735, 73G, 738, 7M8, 739, 752, 753, 742, 74L, 744, 762, 763, 772, 77L, 77W, 789, 142, CN1, CR2, CR7, DC8, DH2, DH8, D8Q, D10, D95, EM2, ER3, ER4, E70, 100, J31, M11, M83, M88, M90, SF3
 
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SANFan
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Mon Sep 04, 2017 6:13 pm

The Hawaiians are very loyal to HA, particularly concerning inter-island flying. Unless WN comes in with incredibly cheap inter-island flights, or has enough of their own pax who will fly then between the islands (special pricing of some sort, if they could do that), I doubt they would be successful.

Sure, circle trips, (or round-robins, or triangle trips, or any other of many names they go by) operating, for example, SAN-HNL-LIH-OAK, or SJC-OGG-KOA-SJC could work, offering lots of 1-stop with no-change-of-plane routings, but there would still have to lots of pax willing to fly WN on a strictly inter-island basis or WN is going to have lots of empty seats. Some of the flights/routings wouldn't even have to fly daily. (AQ did some of these creative circle trips during their last few months in existence: e.g, SAN-LIH-KOA-SNA 2-3X weekly, and SAN-KOA-LIH-SNA etc.)

bb
 
BravoOne
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Mon Sep 04, 2017 6:17 pm

11725Flyer wrote:
usxguy wrote:
Alaska hasn't been adding new Hawaiian markets in a while, United just upgauged a lot of flying, and you have HA adding 32B's to their fleet -- so not sure where there's much room for more growth. This might be one of WN's worst mistakes if they enter Hawai'i.


Good points. (No pun intended.) But, if you're a member of Rapid Rewards, you want to have the option to go to Hawaii. For that reason alone, I think WN will announce Hawaii service sometime in the near future.


Would this not further dilute their yields as RR customers claimed the their rewards with island flights?
 
ytib
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:26 pm

BravoOne wrote:
11725Flyer wrote:
usxguy wrote:
Alaska hasn't been adding new Hawaiian markets in a while, United just upgauged a lot of flying, and you have HA adding 32B's to their fleet -- so not sure where there's much room for more growth. This might be one of WN's worst mistakes if they enter Hawai'i.


Good points. (No pun intended.) But, if you're a member of Rapid Rewards, you want to have the option to go to Hawaii. For that reason alone, I think WN will announce Hawaii service sometime in the near future.


Would this not further dilute their yields as RR customers claimed the their rewards with island flights?


In somewhat of a simplified look, not at all as the frequent flyer rewards are liabilities ($63 million as of 12/31/16 as stated in their 2016 Annual Report). Likewise when you purchase a ticket it is also recorded as a liability until the transportation is provided at which point it is recognized as revenue.

With their changes in the past frequent flyer points now have a corresponding dollar value and the more expensive the cash value of a ticket the more points it takes to acquire that ticket. Based on this the availability in that fare bucket is decreased from both the sale of less expensive tickets as well as the lower redemption value of those points.

The one thing which is impacted is the operational cash flow since there is no direct money involved for the majority of the ticket.
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Mon Sep 04, 2017 9:48 pm

If there is one destination where "two bags fly for free" will be handy it is Hawaii. Imagine the number of bags on a full Hawaii flight!
Work Hard, Fly Right
 
737max8
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:45 am

SANFan wrote:
After reading thru the posts on this thread, I'm still hoping to get some clarification on comments made by 2 posters in the "WN Schedule Extension 8/28/17" thread: Link: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1371077&hilit=out+WN

From reply #215 by Barney Captain posted 8/27:
"Fact - The MX personnel I have spoken to directly in the last 2 days have told me their ETOP's mx bids have been awarded - SJC, SMF and SAN."

and from reply #219 by Midwestindy, also posted on 8/27:
"According to someone who spoke with OAK mechanics about the ETOPS awards yesterday, he said 8 each going to SMF and SJC and then 20 (or may have been 24) going to SAN."

So when I see a post such as this (poster noted):
by wnflyguy » Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:13 pm

IF WN starts HAWAII in 2018.
I see a HNL being the first wave in JUNE.
Then followed by OGG in July and KOA in AUG.
For the first wave of HNL service if the Red eye issues are worked out I see a schedule like this.
LAX-HNL-LAX...

OAK-HNL-OAK...

SMF-HNL-SMF...

SJC-HNL-SJC...

That's my predictions
Enjoy Flyguy

without SAN even mentioned, I just wonder what the the ETOPS Awards mentioned earlier in this post really mean? My interpretation would be that SMF, SJC and SAN would at least be a large part of the ETOPS program, and would certainly be involved with flights to Hawaii. To the exclusion of OAK and LAX? Maybe they already have ETOPS awards? Or perhaps those airports are already bursting at the seams so WN is going to spread things out a bit? Dunno know... but sure would like to. Then perhaps I could come up with a theory about WN and Hawaii -- how and where?

bb


WNflyguy doesn't know. His post is entirely made up and laughable.
The thoughts and opinions expressed in my comments do not represent that of any airline or affiliate.
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c933103
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:32 am

PatrickZ80 wrote:
flyguy84 wrote:
Hawaii is a bloodbath. Why would they want to enter the market. I don't see much upside other than just to say they fly to Hawaii.


I don't think so. The only American LCC that flies to Hawaii is Allegiant and that's a very limited service, the market is fairly untroubled and still for the most part in the hand of the legacies. On the other hand, Hawaii sees no less than three LCCs from the other side of the pond (Air Asia X, Scoot and JetStar). I don't call Alaska an LCC, they're a hybrid carrier.

What happens if Southwest, Spirit and Frontier take a gamble for the Hawaii market? Then the bloodbath will really start. They will make Hawaii affordable for the average American which so far it isn't. And don't tell me it's too far and therefor unprofitable for LCCs. Look at what Ryanair is doing at the Canary islands in Europe, those are mostly 4 or 5 hour flights too just like California to Hawaii and available for very cheap. If it can be done in Europe, it can also be done in America.

Well, AirAsia X and Scoot are both only starting the route recently so it is not sure if they are going to stay
And there are also another LCC from Korea flying into HNL (Jin Air)
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wwtraveler99
Topic Author
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:11 am

737max8 wrote:
SANFan wrote:
After reading thru the posts on this thread, I'm still hoping to get some clarification on comments made by 2 posters in the "WN Schedule Extension 8/28/17" thread: Link: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1371077&hilit=out+WN

From reply #215 by Barney Captain posted 8/27:
"Fact - The MX personnel I have spoken to directly in the last 2 days have told me their ETOP's mx bids have been awarded - SJC, SMF and SAN."

and from reply #219 by Midwestindy, also posted on 8/27:
"According to someone who spoke with OAK mechanics about the ETOPS awards yesterday, he said 8 each going to SMF and SJC and then 20 (or may have been 24) going to SAN."

So when I see a post such as this (poster noted):
by wnflyguy » Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:13 pm

IF WN starts HAWAII in 2018.
I see a HNL being the first wave in JUNE.
Then followed by OGG in July and KOA in AUG.
For the first wave of HNL service if the Red eye issues are worked out I see a schedule like this.
LAX-HNL-LAX...

OAK-HNL-OAK...

SMF-HNL-SMF...

SJC-HNL-SJC...

That's my predictions
Enjoy Flyguy

without SAN even mentioned, I just wonder what the the ETOPS Awards mentioned earlier in this post really mean? My interpretation would be that SMF, SJC and SAN would at least be a large part of the ETOPS program, and would certainly be involved with flights to Hawaii. To the exclusion of OAK and LAX? Maybe they already have ETOPS awards? Or perhaps those airports are already bursting at the seams so WN is going to spread things out a bit? Dunno know... but sure would like to. Then perhaps I could come up with a theory about WN and Hawaii -- how and where?

bb


WNflyguy doesn't know. His post is entirely made up and laughable.


I find it funny that you say he "doesn't know", But does anyone on this board actually know? Until we see Gary Kelly, an executive, or some one from their planning department post here then everyone is posting opinions and guesses. I like how it works. I think it provides things to think about for WN.

I also think WNflyguy is not too far off. I mean WN will be serving Hawaii from the west coast. Do you really think they will not use OAK or LAX? So even if SMF is not a city to Hawaii he has 2 out of 3.

Personally I see WN doing HNL to LAS, PHX, OAK, SJC, SEA, SAN and maybe DEN. So I think these will all be started at the same time, no. But I think over time that's a pretty fair list to consider.

WW
 
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usxguy
Posts: 1902
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:46 am

There is a gate shortage at HNL, otherwise DOT wouldnt be panicking over where to stick Mokulele & IslandAir.
xx
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:24 am

Island Air
 
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KanaHawaii
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:58 am

usxguy wrote:
There is a gate shortage at HNL, otherwise DOT wouldnt be panicking over where to stick Mokulele & IslandAir.


I know the HDOT-A tasked the airline committee at HNL with finding a solution. I am assuming by your statement, that solution has not been found.
 
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usxguy
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:03 am

Still no. I worked for Mokulele for 10 years and even offered some solutions for the airport; shot them all down. The absolute easiest is putting MW and WP at opposite ends of the Overseas Terminal where the Diamond Head / EWA concourses start. Plenty of room if you alter 1 "ramp safety zone" slightly. But apparently room for cargo canisters is more important than finding gate space for 5 Caravans and 2 large commuter aircraft to proceed with HA's new concourse.
xx
 
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KanaHawaii
Posts: 187
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:05 am

wnflyguy wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
KanaHawaii wrote:
It could very well be that Southwest is still trying to figure out how to enter the market, saturated as it is, in the traditional Southwest way of flooding the market with service right off the bat. One of those factors may be gate space at HNL and maybe even OGG or KOA. As noted before United and Hawaiian are or have increased service by quite a bit, and the physical presence of those airlines in those places are only increasing. So we might not see SW come into the market until the modification of the interisland terminal at HNL is done, which will increase the number of gates and maybe providing SW with a place to run their initial operations.


What do they need?? 3 open gates at HNL at a time?? They could arrange that. HNL will find the room for them.


WN and HNL gates isn't a big issue.
From reliable sources WN has inquiries about Hard Stand and busses for HNL short term fix.
It's learned and has had quite successful operation like that in PUJ.
Would be easy for WN to alter Boarding for Hawaii operations.
It's not like Hawaii has horrible weather.

Flyguy


Which hard stands would they use? I can only think of the Hardstands at the Diamond Head wing (Gates 1-5) which are used by all the airlines to park their planes "off to the side" when not needed at the gate. There is also the hard stands at the Commuter Terminal. But those will be blocked off once the Commuter Terminal is demolished once they figure out what to do with Island Air and Mokulele.

I guess they could use the hard stands on the Ewa side of the airport where Hawaiian currently parks some of their A330's and, at times, Allegiant and their 757's and Aloha Air Cargo's 737-300F's. But still even with all that, and them already being used, you would need to find a gate that would be blocked off for passengers to go to the busses and drive off to the planes.

I guess anything is possible, but not sure if the optics of it work for Southwest...being relegated to hardstand ops when first coming to Hawaii. Like MidPac using the mainland gates when they first started because they were not seen as a real "interisland" airline that could use the inter island terminal.
 
WPvsMW
Posts: 2252
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:30 pm

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:43 am

I think Airports Div. should expand DH terminal as planned... 20 years ago.... and move WP and MW (and WN, etc.) to the extended DH terminal. The other, far less practical alternative, is to expand the interisland terminal in two phases, first phase makai, second phase mauka. WP and MW continue to operate from the mauka part of the existing commuter terminal while the makai part is demolished, and the current interisland terminal is extended. Phase two, WP and MW move to the completed makai phase terminal, and the mauka phase extension is built. I also think a new interisland terminal will remain a horizon event until there is an Airport Authority running the airports.

WP can't begin service HNL/ITO soon enough for me. Usually HNL/ITO is $50+ more, RT, than HNL/KOA on HA because of no competition HNL/ITO.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:36 pm

So you're knowledge of HNL can probably help or kill the his Rumor.
That is WN has leased the so to be vacant Allegaint office and gate space at HNL airport.

I really don't know how credible that is but since all
My predictions or rumors are seen as Laughable anyway I will ask you?

Thanks flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
BravoOne
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:05 pm

Have to laugh at all this speculation and the mechanic bids to various stations, but for some reason none in HNL or OGG, How is that going to work?

Yes SWA is working on ETOPS, and eventually they will have it. Whether it is a smart move or not is something else.
 
airplaneboy
Posts: 725
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 11:59 am

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:59 pm

BravoOne wrote:
Have to laugh at all this speculation and the mechanic bids to various stations, but for some reason none in HNL or OGG, How is that going to work?

Yes SWA is working on ETOPS, and eventually they will have it. Whether it is a smart move or not is something else.


I think it's a great idea for several reasons. Southwest carries the most number of passengers both within California- and to and from California. With a large customer base in California (which has the highest number of passengers flying to Hawaii than any other state), it's a no brainer for WN to fly there. It is currently the largest hole in their domestic network. Also, WN already has significant brand recognition amongst most local Hawaiians without having ever offered service there. The market is large enough for WN for all of these reasons- although it might be a different story for an airline like Frontier or jetBlue to enter the Hawaii market from the west coast.
 
BravoOne
Posts: 4094
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:56 pm

airplaneboy wrote:
BravoOne wrote:
Have to laugh at all this speculation and the mechanic bids to various stations, but for some reason none in HNL or OGG, How is that going to work?

Yes SWA is working on ETOPS, and eventually they will have it. Whether it is a smart move or not is something else.


I think it's a great idea for several reasons. Southwest carries the most number of passengers both within California- and to and from California. With a large customer base in California (which has the highest number of passengers flying to Hawaii than any other state), it's a no brainer for WN to fly there. It is currently the largest hole in their domestic network. Also, WN already has significant brand recognition amongst most local Hawaiians without having ever offered service there. The market is large enough for WN for all of these reasons- although it might be a different story for an airline like Frontier or jetBlue to enter the Hawaii market from the west coast.


Well we will see how that works out. Don't think the other airlines are simply going to roll over for the likes of SWA. Those days are long gone. SWA use to be big in the LAS-SEA market and DL/AS has pretty much ran them out. SWA on some days does not even service that market non stop. Kind of pathetic.
 
Chugach
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Sep 07, 2017 9:17 pm

32andBelow wrote:
ridgid727 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
The ANC party is over with DL adding way too much capacity on top of AS


I don't know WN wants to own DEN, so I would assume its in the cards somewhere for DEN-ANC

AS couldn't make ANC/DEN work. UA is already on ANC/DEN several times per day in the summer and daily in the winter. I don't see it.


AS flew ANC-DEN for quite a few years, and had no issue filling up the plane. The issue was F9 also flew ANC-DEN at the time and the yields were garbage.

F9 is long gone from that route...I think it's only a matter of time before either AS resumes it or WN starts in.

Also not sure how DL has added too much capacity in ANC...they have all their normal seasonal stuff plus a couple of additional SEA flights. They don't even fly ANC-MSP daily in the deep winter months anymore.
 
BravoOne
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:12 pm

I ride on SWA several times a month and can't imagine using them for a vacation to the islands . HAL, UAL, DAL would all be better choices assuming SWA was not giving their tickets away.
 
32andBelow
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:07 pm

Chugach wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
ridgid727 wrote:

I don't know WN wants to own DEN, so I would assume its in the cards somewhere for DEN-ANC

AS couldn't make ANC/DEN work. UA is already on ANC/DEN several times per day in the summer and daily in the winter. I don't see it.


AS flew ANC-DEN for quite a few years, and had no issue filling up the plane. The issue was F9 also flew ANC-DEN at the time and the yields were garbage.

F9 is long gone from that route...I think it's only a matter of time before either AS resumes it or WN starts in.

Also not sure how DL has added too much capacity in ANC...they have all their normal seasonal stuff plus a couple of additional SEA flights. They don't even fly ANC-MSP daily in the deep winter months anymore.

The 22 AS, 5 DL, 2 B6 is too much capacity for ANC/SEA. Obvious seasonal adjustment. But if WN came in 2-3X into ANC it would be too much.
 
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smithbs
Posts: 540
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Fri Sep 08, 2017 2:44 am

Lately I booked tickets for SEA-OGG for March 2018. All-up fares for AS were looking at $800 RT, but I squeaked in with HA for slightly less than $500 RT each.

From that experience, I'm assuming that AS feels they can charge more and still fill their 737 and get their margins in the end. I think the HA widebody service allows for a lower price point. WN may end up competing more with AS on Hawaii service, as like AS they can bring their large domestic market to bear to fill their small-ish 737s on a long dead-end route and get some of that business.

Before the sniping starts, let me clarify - the 737 is toward the small end of capacity on a 6-8 hour narrow route when the competition is using widebodies on the same route. And I call Hawaii a dead-end route because there is no hub or ongoing connections at the far end for AS or WN - simply out and back from the West Coast hubs.

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