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Super80Fan
Posts: 1622
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:23 pm

Let the B6 & HA merger talks begin.
RIP McDonnell Douglas
RIP US Airways
 
flydulles
Posts: 122
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:50 pm

why would they merge with HA and B6?
 
77H
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Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2016 11:27 pm

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:53 pm

Super80Fan wrote:
Let the B6 & HA merger talks begin.


Why? HA doesn't need B6 to compete against WN US West Coast-Hawaii. They already codeshare with them for feed. Merging does little for either carrier. HA already has 321N's on order and will have them deployed long before the first Part 121 WN flight touches down on any island. There is a very strong following with HA in the islands and HA serves destinations nonstop that WN will not be able to offer either because of the range of the 738/7M8 (LAS, PHX, JFK) or because they are not strong enough in those particular markets (PDX,SEA). As I said up thread, if any airline would/should be worried it's AS who will compete head to head with WN out of California with the same aircraft type and thus roughly the same operating costs.

77H
 
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Super80Fan
Posts: 1622
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:58 pm

flydulles wrote:
why would they merge with HA and B6?


77H wrote:
Super80Fan wrote:
Let the B6 & HA merger talks begin.


Why? HA doesn't need B6 to compete against WN US West Coast-Hawaii. They already codeshare with them for feed. Merging does little for either carrier. HA already has 321N's on order and will have them deployed long before the first Part 121 WN flight touches down on any island. There is a very strong following with HA in the islands and HA serves destinations nonstop that WN will not be able to offer either because of the range of the 738/7M8 (LAS, PHX, JFK) or because they are not strong enough in those particular markets (PDX,SEA). As I said up thread, if any airline would/should be worried it's AS who will compete head to head with WN out of California with the same aircraft type and thus roughly the same operating costs.

77H


Kind of kidding, it's a favorite on here along with B6 & UA, B6 & AS, B6 & WN etc.
RIP McDonnell Douglas
RIP US Airways
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 1995
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Tue Sep 19, 2017 8:05 pm

Super80Fan wrote:
flydulles wrote:
why would they merge with HA and B6?


77H wrote:
Super80Fan wrote:
Let the B6 & HA merger talks begin.


Why? HA doesn't need B6 to compete against WN US West Coast-Hawaii. They already codeshare with them for feed. Merging does little for either carrier. HA already has 321N's on order and will have them deployed long before the first Part 121 WN flight touches down on any island. There is a very strong following with HA in the islands and HA serves destinations nonstop that WN will not be able to offer either because of the range of the 738/7M8 (LAS, PHX, JFK) or because they are not strong enough in those particular markets (PDX,SEA). As I said up thread, if any airline would/should be worried it's AS who will compete head to head with WN out of California with the same aircraft type and thus roughly the same operating costs.

77H


Kind of kidding, it's a favorite on here along with B6 & UA, B6 & AS, B6 & WN etc.


Any B6 Hawaii aspirations died with it's Failure to win the VX bid.
B6 will beat WN to transatlantic low fare service from the eastern destinations with The Mint product.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
allegiantflyer
Posts: 366
Joined: Mon Mar 12, 2012 6:59 pm

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:13 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
Super80Fan wrote:
flydulles wrote:
why would they merge with HA and B6?


77H wrote:

Why? HA doesn't need B6 to compete against WN US West Coast-Hawaii. They already codeshare with them for feed. Merging does little for either carrier. HA already has 321N's on order and will have them deployed long before the first Part 121 WN flight touches down on any island. There is a very strong following with HA in the islands and HA serves destinations nonstop that WN will not be able to offer either because of the range of the 738/7M8 (LAS, PHX, JFK) or because they are not strong enough in those particular markets (PDX,SEA). As I said up thread, if any airline would/should be worried it's AS who will compete head to head with WN out of California with the same aircraft type and thus roughly the same operating costs.

77H


Kind of kidding, it's a favorite on here along with B6 & UA, B6 & AS, B6 & WN etc.


Any B6 Hawaii aspirations died with it's Failure to win the VX bid.
B6 will beat WN to transatlantic low fare service from the eastern destinations with The Mint product.

Flyguy


I wouldn't say their aspirations died, Im sure we will have a B6 to Hawaii thread eventually.
 
Aptivaboy
Posts: 931
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:16 pm

I'm guessing that's right. Not only are they cities with through traffic from other Southwest served airports, giving them connecting traffic, but they're already used by other carriers using 737s to the islands. I'm still holding out hope for SNA and/or ONT, but I've been waiting for Miss Right all this time, so I'm used to being disappointed!
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:02 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
Super80Fan wrote:
flydulles wrote:
why would they merge with HA and B6?


77H wrote:

Why? HA doesn't need B6 to compete against WN US West Coast-Hawaii. They already codeshare with them for feed. Merging does little for either carrier. HA already has 321N's on order and will have them deployed long before the first Part 121 WN flight touches down on any island. There is a very strong following with HA in the islands and HA serves destinations nonstop that WN will not be able to offer either because of the range of the 738/7M8 (LAS, PHX, JFK) or because they are not strong enough in those particular markets (PDX,SEA). As I said up thread, if any airline would/should be worried it's AS who will compete head to head with WN out of California with the same aircraft type and thus roughly the same operating costs.

77H


Kind of kidding, it's a favorite on here along with B6 & UA, B6 & AS, B6 & WN etc.


Any B6 Hawaii aspirations died with it's Failure to win the VX bid.
B6 will beat WN to transatlantic low fare service from the eastern destinations with The Mint product.

Flyguy


Do you honestly think WN will eventually attempt TATL service? It is already a heavily saturated market and the 737's they have (and will have) can't do Europe very well (sitting on a WN plane to Europe? No thanks). WN would be better off codesharing with Icelandair, WOW, Norwegian, etc, for European service.

And I still think B6 comes to Hawaii, maybe through an acquisition of Hawaiian, maybe on their own.

Or maybe through an eventual merger with AS............
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 1995
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:05 pm

allegiantflyer wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
Super80Fan wrote:



Kind of kidding, it's a favorite on here along with B6 & UA, B6 & AS, B6 & WN etc.


Any B6 Hawaii aspirations died with it's Failure to win the VX bid.
B6 will beat WN to transatlantic low fare service from the eastern destinations with The Mint product.

Flyguy


I wouldn't say their aspirations died, Im sure we will have a B6 to Hawaii thread eventually.


I will agree with ya but first B6 needs to figure out its west coast presence.
LGB is long past it's usefulness going forward.
But that's it's own topic.

Back to WN with all this anticipation and hype I wouldn't be surprised if nothing happenes tomorrow.
Other than WN announces it's restarting ETOPS certification date and destinations at a later date.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
77H
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:06 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
Super80Fan wrote:



Kind of kidding, it's a favorite on here along with B6 & UA, B6 & AS, B6 & WN etc.


Any B6 Hawaii aspirations died with it's Failure to win the VX bid.
B6 will beat WN to transatlantic low fare service from the eastern destinations with The Mint product.

Flyguy


Do you honestly think WN will eventually attempt TATL service? It is already a heavily saturated market and the 737's they have (and will have) can't do Europe very well (sitting on a WN plane to Europe? No thanks). WN would be better off codesharing with Icelandair, WOW, Norwegian, etc, for European service.

Or maybe through an eventual merger with AS............


And I still think B6 comes to Hawaii, maybe through an acquisition of Hawaiian, maybe on their own.

I too think B6 will enter the HI market eventually. Though I think it will be on their own. I see no merit to merging with Hawaiian for either airline.
B6 already has the Caribbean market on lock. If they hope to grow their West Coast Portfolio, they will most likely need to offer Hawaii to satisfy WC FFers. Though they can probably accomplish the same thing by strengthening their codeshare agreement with HA. HA's fleet is growing and I have a feeling that HA will not turn away solid offer to feed their flights from a well regarded mainland carrier like B6.

77H
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:13 pm

Question.

When WN gets the 737 MAX 7 in 2019 (which can go almost 4,000 nmi), could that open up the possibility for direct Hawaiian service for select cities east of the Rocky Mountains (since the current 737 MAX 8 likely couldn't do anything east of DEN)? Cities such as their home base of DAL?
 
jplatts
Posts: 3691
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:49 pm

77H wrote:
Super80Fan wrote:
Let the B6 & HA merger talks begin.


Why? HA doesn't need B6 to compete against WN US West Coast-Hawaii. They already codeshare with them for feed. Merging does little for either carrier. HA already has 321N's on order and will have them deployed long before the first Part 121 WN flight touches down on any island. There is a very strong following with HA in the islands and HA serves destinations nonstop that WN will not be able to offer either because of the range of the 738/7M8 (LAS, PHX, JFK) or because they are not strong enough in those particular markets (PDX,SEA). As I said up thread, if any airline would/should be worried it's AS who will compete head to head with WN out of California with the same aircraft type and thus roughly the same operating costs.

77H


HNL-LAS is actually within the range of Boeing 737 aircraft since Alaska currently operates HNL-ANC nonstop service on Boeing 737-800 aircraft and since ANC is 2779 miles from HNL whereas LAS is 2757 miles from HNL. Southwest will be able to serve Hawaii nonstop from LAS on ETOPS-certified Boeing 737 planes.
 
nomorerjs
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 12:15 am

Like BA to ..., WN to AK, HI, and Canada is never ending thread here!

If money was to be made and it would work, WN would be there today!
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 12:30 am

nomorerjs wrote:
Like BA to ..., WN to AK, HI, and Canada is never ending thread here!

If money was to be made and it would work, WN would be there today!


Well, they will go to all of those places eventually (probably only seasonal to AK though), so it's just a matter of planning. Hawaii is the next logical market for WN to break into, they should already be there.
 
77H
Posts: 1570
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2016 11:27 pm

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 12:53 am

jplatts wrote:
77H wrote:
Super80Fan wrote:
Let the B6 & HA merger talks begin.


Why? HA doesn't need B6 to compete against WN US West Coast-Hawaii. They already codeshare with them for feed. Merging does little for either carrier. HA already has 321N's on order and will have them deployed long before the first Part 121 WN flight touches down on any island. There is a very strong following with HA in the islands and HA serves destinations nonstop that WN will not be able to offer either because of the range of the 738/7M8 (LAS, PHX, JFK) or because they are not strong enough in those particular markets (PDX,SEA). As I said up thread, if any airline would/should be worried it's AS who will compete head to head with WN out of California with the same aircraft type and thus roughly the same operating costs.

77H


HNL-LAS is actually within the range of Boeing 737 aircraft since Alaska currently operates HNL-ANC nonstop service on Boeing 737-800 aircraft and since ANC is 2779 miles from HNL whereas LAS is 2757 miles from HNL. Southwest will be able to serve Hawaii nonstop from LAS on ETOPS-certified Boeing 737 planes.


I don't think that is a fair comparison considering LAS is almost 2000 ft higher than ANC and frequently reaches triple digit temps 3-4 months of the year. There is a reason that LAS-HNL hasn't been and isn't operated with anything less than 757 on scheduled service. The number of seats AS or would be WN would have to block out to get off the ground out of LAS or PHX for that matter would be prohibitive. Now the MAX may change all that but I still think that HA will have a CASM advantage assuming their HD A332's a full. Which they usually are.

77H
 
hnl808
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2017 2:17 am

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 1:46 am

77H wrote:
There is a reason that LAS-HNL hasn't been and isn't operated with anything less than 757 on scheduled service. The number of seats AS or would be WN would have to block out to get off the ground out of LAS or PHX for that matter would be prohibitive.


Well, not exactly. Aloha did offer non-stop service between LAS-HNL on the 737-700. If AQ was able to make the route work with the 737-700, i'm sure others can as well. See linked article on AQ's expansion from HNL-SNA-LAS to non-stop service.

https://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/stories/2004/06/14/daily44.html?jst=b_ln_hl

The reason why you don't see anyone else operating the route with anything smaller than an A330 (Hawaiian) or a 767 (Omni) is because those are the smallest aircraft they have in their current fleet that would be able to make it non-stop.
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 1995
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:47 am

So here's is the latest Rumor out of the many going around about the events for tomorrow.
This one I like and would be so Southwest if it's true!
Press conference/release is scheduled for 10am Hawaii time. AKA Hanging 10! WN to offer up 10 new ways to reach the mainland! TransFAREnecy meets TransPacific!

Aloha flyguy
Last edited by wnflyguy on Wed Sep 20, 2017 3:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
77H
Posts: 1570
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 3:02 am

hnl808 wrote:
77H wrote:
There is a reason that LAS-HNL hasn't been and isn't operated with anything less than 757 on scheduled service. The number of seats AS or would be WN would have to block out to get off the ground out of LAS or PHX for that matter would be prohibitive.


Well, not exactly. Aloha did offer non-stop service between LAS-HNL on the 737-700. If AQ was able to make the route work with the 737-700, i'm sure others can as well. See linked article on AQ's expansion from HNL-SNA-LAS to non-stop service.

https://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/stories/2004/06/14/daily44.html?jst=b_ln_hl

The reason why you don't see anyone else operating the route with anything smaller than an A330 (Hawaiian) or a 767 (Omni) is because those are the smallest aircraft they have in their current fleet that would be able to make it non-stop.


That is true although I recall seeing charts or figures wherein the 73G has better range at MTOW than the 738. The 738SFP was only introduced a few short years ago that closed the gap slightly. What is also not known is if AQ had to frequently block seats on the the LAS-HNL leg. I seem to recall reading on here that AQ frequently had to leave behind passenger baggage on some of their longer routes.

I think the big take away is that there is a difference between an airline flying an aircraft that can physically make the trip without getting its wings wet and an airline flying an aircraft that can make the trip profitably. So I concede at AS or WN or DL and UA could launch service with a 738 or 739 tomorrow. Would the flight make a profit? That is the $65M question. I believe DL is operating LAS-HNL for winter peak this year on none other then the 752. They operate a fleet of 737-900ER's that fly to Hawaii today. Which leads me to posit there is a specific reason why it is not being used on their upcoming LAS-HNL route.

77H
 
hnl808
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2017 2:17 am

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:12 am

Local news media are now picking up on the rumors of an imminent announcement by SWA.

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/36407257/speculation-ramps-up-as-southwest-plays-down-potential-hawaii-routes
 
allegiantflyer
Posts: 366
Joined: Mon Mar 12, 2012 6:59 pm

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 5:57 am

wnflyguy wrote:
So here's is the latest Rumor out of the many going around about the events for tomorrow.
This one I like and would be so Southwest if it's true!
Press conference/release is scheduled for 10am Hawaii time. AKA Hanging 10! WN to offer up 10 new ways to reach the mainland! TransFAREnecy meets TransPacific!

Aloha flyguy


10 sounds like a lot for a beginner in the market....
 
strfyr51
Posts: 5030
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:10 am

enilria wrote:
wwtraveler99 wrote:
Well I have been hearing many things from WN people. Also with things posted here. With this information I have come up will a Hawaii service theory. Please keep in mind this information is put together using mostly rumors I have heard from WN people, things I have seen and things I have read. I know this is being discussed somewhat on another thread but I think it deserves it on topic of discussion.

Here are the things I have based my opinion on:

1. WN now has the MAX
2. MX people supposedly have some sort of certification
3. MAX ac have everything for ETOPS except rafts
4. Gary Kelly has said he wants service to Hawaii
5. At the earning call (for 2Q) service plan were not yet set for 2H 2018
6. WN was supposed to make other announcements with the schedule release but it has been postpone. Not sure when they will announce whatever was postponed
7. Hawaii is the #1 priority
8. California
9. Alaska Airlines

Putting all this information together. In my opinion Southwest Airlines will begin Hawaii service summer 2018. It seems they have the aircraft and the maintenance portion worked out as far as ETOPS. The liferaft can easily be added in a few days. Southwest will have 20+ max aircraft by next summer. Their competition with Alaska and wanting to be number one in California seems that they need service to Hawaii. Many other freaking Flyers won Hawaii service many of their customers one Hawaii service. With the new service ads last week for California I think Hawaii is going to be next. Maybe not the announcements that were postpone but I think the next schedule update will include Hawaii.


I'm sure you'll have your own opinions and thoughts on it I'd love to hear them.


WW

They still can't do scheduled red eyes due to the ops system software. I am not aware of a date for that to be completed, but I know it's on their roadmap. They could technically do Hawaii without red eyes, but my guess is the economics require red eyes to work.

what kind of lousy software would Not work 24Hrs/day?? That's absurd!!
The pilots don't WANT to fly overnight? The flight attendants are not contracted to fly overnight. Operations or dispatch can't/ don't work overnight something!! Anything is more plausible than the lame excuse their software can't operate overnight. What does it have?? An Alarm that wakes up at 0400L?? Gotta have a better excuse than that!!
 
WPvsMW
Posts: 2252
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:30 pm

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:26 am

Boeing claims 3515 nmi range for the MAX 8.

My guess: 10 = 5 CONUS gateways, each to HNL and OGG.

For the 5 gateways: DEN LAS OAK PHX SAN (DEN/HNL is 2924 nm)

avoiding the US3 at LAX SFO and SLC.
 
77H
Posts: 1570
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2016 11:27 pm

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:19 am

WPvsMW wrote:
Boeing claims 3515 nmi range for the MAX 8.

My guess: 10 = 5 CONUS gateways, each to HNL and OGG.

For the 5 gateways: DEN LAS OAK PHX SAN (DEN/HNL is 2924 nm)

avoiding the US3 at LAX SFO and SLC.


They'd be going head to head with UA at DEN. UA sends a 772 DEN-HNL daily and will be daily on DEN-OGG/KOA starting in December.

My best guess for starting service is OAK,SJC,SMF,SAN,LAX with LAS and PHX as wild cards to HNL and OGG.

77H
 
WPvsMW
Posts: 2252
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:30 pm

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:36 am

True as to DEN and UA's 772, but IIRC DEN is 2nd only to DAL as a WN hub, and has many FF elites. With G4 exiting LAS, WN would keep the "fifth island" in the chain. WN is weak at SMF and LAX compared to PHX, LAS, and DEN.
https://www.southwest.com/flight/routemap_dyn.html

As for UA's 772, it departs DEN at 1120. WN could do an afternoon and early evening, 2x daily, forcing UA to downgauge...

Fun to speculate....
 
hnl808
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2017 2:17 am

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:25 am

wnflyguy wrote:
Last rumor I heard tonight was that WN is ferrying a MAX on Tuesday night from PHX-HNL for a static media display on Wednesday the 20th.
Hopefully this is all true and Hawaii happens!

I believe everything but the Ferry flight.
But since it's not a normal flight WN could technically have Boeing pilots fly it since the MAX is now ETOPS certificate?
Please feel free to chime in on this!
Excited
Flyguy


Been keeping an eye on flightradar/flightaware and no sign of a SWA ferry aircraft to HNL yet...

I'm going to say that this rumor, unfortunately has been busted...
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 1995
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 11:52 am

Well high hopes for today! But we shall see if it lives up to all the Hype!
All the rumors and excitement have been fun but I'm not holding my breath for anything exciting this morning!

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
SWADawg
Posts: 586
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 6:43 pm

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 12:16 pm

They don't need a MAX physically there to announce new service and the Aircraft could have been sent straight from RNT to HNL as a BOE xxx flight designation so as to not raise any suspicions. WN may also have been backed into a corner now that all of the emails have been leaked to the press. If they decided not to announce this morning after the local news media outlets in Hawaii already ran with the story, I think that would do more damage to WN's reputation if they delay announcement of service to a later date instead of at the event that they're attending this morning. I'll be more surprised if they don't announce this morning than if they do.
My posts are my opinion only and do not reflect the views of Southwest Airlines
 
Jshank83
Posts: 3561
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:04 pm

77H wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
Boeing claims 3515 nmi range for the MAX 8.

My guess: 10 = 5 CONUS gateways, each to HNL and OGG.

For the 5 gateways: DEN LAS OAK PHX SAN (DEN/HNL is 2924 nm)

avoiding the US3 at LAX SFO and SLC.


They'd be going head to head with UA at DEN. UA sends a 772 DEN-HNL daily and will be daily on DEN-OGG/KOA starting in December.

My best guess for starting service is OAK,SJC,SMF,SAN,LAX with LAS and PHX as wild cards to HNL and OGG.

77H


I would imagine they would want to use their biggest stations for connection reasons, at least early on. So some combination of OAK,LAX,SAN,PHX seem the most plausible. If they actually can make it from DEN, throw it in as well as an option. LAS?
 
Jetmarc
Posts: 497
Joined: Sat Aug 30, 2003 5:54 am

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:18 pm

With their recent reservation system upgrade, could WN just be announcing a major codeshare agreement with Hawaiian?
"Sucka, I'm gonna send you out on Knuckle Airlines. Fist Class!!" ~ Mr. T
 
flydulles
Posts: 122
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2016 3:59 pm

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 3:04 pm

these days i wonder if they could announce via internet with out flying a plane over there ?
 
jetwet1
Posts: 3242
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 4:42 am

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 3:26 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
True as to DEN and UA's 772, but IIRC DEN is 2nd only to DAL as a WN hub, and has many FF elites. With G4 exiting LAS, WN would keep the "fifth island" in the chain. WN is weak at SMF and LAX compared to PHX, LAS, and DEN.
https://www.southwest.com/flight/routemap_dyn.html

As for UA's 772, it departs DEN at 1120. WN could do an afternoon and early evening, 2x daily, forcing UA to downgauge...

Fun to speculate....


That would be the 9th Island........

ScottB wrote:
I'm trying to figure out what's dramatically better about the product on HA/UA/DL. UA & DL run plenty of 737s and 757s to the islands these days, and HA will soon use A321s on some routes. If you're not getting a status upgrade to domestic F or Y+, the seats aren't more comfortable on UA/DL/HA. And at least WN, for now, still offers two complimentary checked bags.



Nothing is the answer, I would much rather fly in coach on WN then UA or DL to HNL, HA does have the advantage of offering meals.


I will say this again, if WN decides to launch HNL flights out of LAX and SFO/OAK, the legacies will feel the pain, WN will not bring that many more passengers to the market, but they will take passengers from other airlines.
 
usflyguy
Posts: 1757
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:29 am

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 3:38 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
enilria wrote:
wwtraveler99 wrote:
Well I have been hearing many things from WN people. Also with things posted here. With this information I have come up will a Hawaii service theory. Please keep in mind this information is put together using mostly rumors I have heard from WN people, things I have seen and things I have read. I know this is being discussed somewhat on another thread but I think it deserves it on topic of discussion.

Here are the things I have based my opinion on:

1. WN now has the MAX
2. MX people supposedly have some sort of certification
3. MAX ac have everything for ETOPS except rafts
4. Gary Kelly has said he wants service to Hawaii
5. At the earning call (for 2Q) service plan were not yet set for 2H 2018
6. WN was supposed to make other announcements with the schedule release but it has been postpone. Not sure when they will announce whatever was postponed
7. Hawaii is the #1 priority
8. California
9. Alaska Airlines

Putting all this information together. In my opinion Southwest Airlines will begin Hawaii service summer 2018. It seems they have the aircraft and the maintenance portion worked out as far as ETOPS. The liferaft can easily be added in a few days. Southwest will have 20+ max aircraft by next summer. Their competition with Alaska and wanting to be number one in California seems that they need service to Hawaii. Many other freaking Flyers won Hawaii service many of their customers one Hawaii service. With the new service ads last week for California I think Hawaii is going to be next. Maybe not the announcements that were postpone but I think the next schedule update will include Hawaii.


I'm sure you'll have your own opinions and thoughts on it I'd love to hear them.


WW

They still can't do scheduled red eyes due to the ops system software. I am not aware of a date for that to be completed, but I know it's on their roadmap. They could technically do Hawaii without red eyes, but my guess is the economics require red eyes to work.

what kind of lousy software would Not work 24Hrs/day?? That's absurd!!
The pilots don't WANT to fly overnight? The flight attendants are not contracted to fly overnight. Operations or dispatch can't/ don't work overnight something!! Anything is more plausible than the lame excuse their software can't operate overnight. What does it have?? An Alarm that wakes up at 0400L?? Gotta have a better excuse than that!!



Flight attendants have had red eye flying in their contract for a couple of years now.
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
Aptivaboy
Posts: 931
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:11 pm

I'm not seeing any SW or Boeing flights to Hawaii other than what looks like a China Southern 737-800 delivery flight through HNL, currently (CZ103). As has already been said, if an announcement is made Southwest doesn't have to have a plane there, although it would be nice. Unless they already flew it there and it's hiding covertly in a hangar, waiting patiently for an unveiling. Yeah, it's tin foil hat time! Cue the cheap and overly dramatic 1950s spy movie music.
 
flydulles
Posts: 122
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2016 3:59 pm

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:12 pm

i would think it be like a Skype announcement or something like that ......
 
barney captain
Posts: 2355
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:21 pm

Aptivaboy wrote:
I'm not seeing any SW or Boeing flights to Hawaii other than what looks like a China Southern 737-800 delivery flight through HNL, currently (CZ103). As has already been said, if an announcement is made Southwest doesn't have to have a plane there, although it would be nice. Unless they already flew it there and it's hiding covertly in a hangar, waiting patiently for an unveiling. Yeah, it's tin foil hat time! Cue the cheap and overly dramatic 1950s spy movie music.


In one of the emails obtained from the FOQA, they referenced the official sunrise.... implying that something needed to happen prior to that. ;)
Southeast Of Disorder
 
usflyguy
Posts: 1757
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:06 pm

Any hangars at HNL with their doors sealed up tight today?
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
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SANFan
Posts: 5416
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:23 pm

usflyguy wrote:
Any hangars at HNL with their doors sealed up tight today?

Or maybe there's an odd 737 at HNL siting on the tarmac wrapped up in a big AS-colors tarp... (Those clever disguises always work!)

It's a little after 8am in the Islands now, breakfast finished, and time to get last-minute preps finished over at the conference...

Can I hold my breath for an hour or two?!

bb
 
WPvsMW
Posts: 2252
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:30 pm

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:24 pm

jetwet1 wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
With G4 exiting LAS, WN would keep the "fifth island" in the chain.


That would be the 9th Island........

[quote="ScottB"]

Sorry ScottB... it's local lingo. Kauai, Oahu, Maui, BI, LAS, but sometimes on Oahu, it's K, O, M, B, Honshu.
 
flydulles
Posts: 122
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:32 pm

guessing if they fly something from the mainland it likely would almost be there in time for conference?
 
n562wn
Posts: 98
Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2015 5:50 pm

Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:39 pm

Not suggesting anything will happen today or not regarding SWA and HI. But after flying corporate for a few years, I learned there are ways to fly jets around the globe that blocks it from any flight tracking services readily available to the public. Something about celebrities and privacy I presume.


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My statements do not represent my former employer or my current employer and are my opinions only.
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 1995
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:50 pm

SANFan wrote:
usflyguy wrote:
Any hangars at HNL with their doors sealed up tight today?

Or maybe there's an odd 737 at HNL siting on the tarmac wrapped up in a big AS-colors tarp... (Those clever disguises always work!)

It's a little after 8am in the Islands now, breakfast finished, and time to get last-minute preps finished over at the conference...

Can I hold my breath for an hour or two?!

bb

Well everything was supposed to happen at 10am Hawaii time which is 3pm HERB TIME so the count down is on?
I'm going to guess nothing about service but a vague announcement they plan on service sometime in 2018.

Flyguy
Last edited by wnflyguy on Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
usflyguy
Posts: 1757
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:29 am

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:59 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
SANFan wrote:
usflyguy wrote:
Any hangars at HNL with their doors sealed up tight today?

Or maybe there's an odd 737 at HNL siting on the tarmac wrapped up in a big AS-colors tarp... (Those clever disguises always work!)

It's a little after 8am in the Islands now, breakfast finished, and time to get last-minute preps finished over at the conference...

Can I hold my breath for an hour or two?!

bb

Well everything was supposed to happen at 10am Hawaii time which is 2pm HERB TIME so the count down is on?
I'm going to guess nothing about service but a vague announcement they plan on service sometime in 2018.

Flyguy


10 am Hawaii-Aleutian Time Zone = 3 pm Central/HERB TIME.
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 1995
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:05 pm

usflyguy wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
SANFan wrote:
Or maybe there's an odd 737 at HNL siting on the tarmac wrapped up in a big AS-colors tarp... (Those clever disguises always work!)

It's a little after 8am in the Islands now, breakfast finished, and time to get last-minute preps finished over at the conference...

Can I hold my breath for an hour or two?!

bb

Well everything was supposed to happen at 10am Hawaii time which is 2pm HERB TIME so the count down is on?
I'm going to guess nothing about service but a vague announcement they plan on service sometime in 2018.

Flyguy


10 am Hawaii-Aleutian Time Zone = 3 pm Central/HERB TIME.

Edited it thanks
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
77H
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:22 pm

usflyguy wrote:
Any hangars at HNL with their doors sealed up tight today?


If the rumor is true perhaps they are doing what QF did when they unveiled their new livery which was fly it to KOA in the middle of the night then ferry it to HNL for the announcement.

Are there any other airlines that have ferried a plane so far just to announce new service ?

77H
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 1995
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:28 pm

Well Word coming in Brian Hawkins for WN addresses the conference that WN has no plans to release anything at this time. Then put the typical WN PR culture blah blah blah not if when spin.

It was 2 days of great fun of speculation and rumors gone wild!
When WN finally quits dragging its feet NOBODY in Hawaii going to care anymore.
By that time Hawaiian will have its A320NEO and beat WN at every turn. Is my prediction.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
QANTAS747-438
Posts: 1739
Joined: Mon Jan 22, 2001 7:01 am

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:48 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
Well Word coming in Brian Hawkins for WN addresses the conference that WN has no plans to release anything at this time. Then put the typical WN PR culture blah blah blah not if when spin.

Flyguy


That was yesterday in an article for Hawaii News Now.
My posts/replies are strictly my opinion and not that of any company, organization, or Southwest Airlines.
 
allegiantflyer
Posts: 366
Joined: Mon Mar 12, 2012 6:59 pm

Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:06 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
Well Word coming in Brian Hawkins for WN addresses the conference that WN has no plans to release anything at this time. Then put the typical WN PR culture blah blah blah not if when spin.

It was 2 days of great fun of speculation and rumors gone wild!
When WN finally quits dragging its feet NOBODY in Hawaii going to care anymore.
By that time Hawaiian will have its A320NEO and beat WN at every turn. Is my prediction.

Flyguy


I think we all know WN wants to mostly compete with AS not HA. HA has a strong loyalty in the islands. Although, AS and WN have strong loyal customers in California, I assume WN is going to market Hawaii to Californians and not Hawaiians.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 3561
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:45 pm

Well this all seemed anti climactic.
 
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EA CO AS
Posts: 15743
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:49 pm

allegiantflyer wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
Well Word coming in Brian Hawkins for WN addresses the conference that WN has no plans to release anything at this time. Then put the typical WN PR culture blah blah blah not if when spin.

It was 2 days of great fun of speculation and rumors gone wild!
When WN finally quits dragging its feet NOBODY in Hawaii going to care anymore.
By that time Hawaiian will have its A320NEO and beat WN at every turn. Is my prediction.

Flyguy


I think we all know WN wants to mostly compete with AS not HA. HA has a strong loyalty in the islands.



You'd be shocked to learn how much loyalty AS has in the islands.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
flydulles
Posts: 122
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Re: Southwest to Hawaii ---- Theories

Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:04 pm

Does anybody even have hope that we will find out in2018??

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