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xdlx
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AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:09 pm

It appears that AA strategy in SJU is directly affected by the LCC/ULCC entry. They have exited traditional markets, most recently NYC an anchor market that has been served since AA started flying to SJU. Could the AA SJU Station be in jeopardy to become irrelevant? The Eagle feed has long been gone, and the VFR traffic has been absorbed by all other mainly WN/NK/B6 and in the future Frontier.
Could the yields be trashed with the pulldown, and thus make SJU a station AA may be willing to EXIT permanently?

Anyone with theories or perhaps some knowledge of the direction this is heading to?
 
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Polot
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:17 pm

All SJU is now is an outstation served by some of AA's hubs. Nothing more, nothing less. I doubt they will ever fully leave the market, especially from MIA.

Not just the LCC that trashed the yields btw, Puerto Rico's poor economy has done SJU no favors.
 
sw733
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:20 pm

I don't see any way AA leaves SJU completely, but it's a market that isn't quite as strong as it used to be so I cannot blame them. The economy of PR is quite poor so business ties are likely weaker than they used to be. Additionally, Zika hurt the tourism industry a bit last year and likely is still recovering even without big Zika issues this summer. Add the LCC/ULCC competition to that...

But exiting SJU permanently? Very little chance.
 
TerminalD
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:26 pm

xdlx wrote:
AA exiting San Juan gradually?

This could be from a soap opera where an airline geek emerges from a 15 year coma to stunning realizations! :) Yes, of course they have been for a very long time.
xdlx wrote:
It appears that AA strategy in SJU is directly affected by the LCC/ULCC entry.

AA decided to start down-sizing SJU and consolidating around MIA before the LCCs were very big in SJU and before ULCCs existed. Let's just say that trend has done nothing to change their minds.
 
303dk
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:28 pm

sw733 wrote:
I don't see any way AA leaves SJU completely, but it's a market that isn't quite as strong as it used to be so I cannot blame them. The economy of PR is quite poor so business ties are likely weaker than they used to be. Additionally, Zika hurt the tourism industry a bit last year and likely is still recovering even without big Zika issues this summer. Add the LCC/ULCC competition to that...

But exiting SJU permanently? Very little chance.

Zika is the same this summer as last summer, it just stopped making the evening news.
 
Brickell305
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:29 pm

AA isn't exiting SJU permanently unless it's on the verge of closing down entirely. Has AA scaled back significantly at SJU? Yes but that's what all airlines do when they de-hub an airport. SJU remains one of the largest VFR and tourism markets from the mainland US and is served by every major US airline. I do believe that AA remains the largest legacy at SJU. That is a far leap from exiting the market entirely.
 
Jamie514
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:44 pm

They've retreated from their once vast JFK-Caribbean operation basically to MIA, (while JFK-Intl is more and more just equipment-pool service woth BA to London). If an LCC/ULCC entrant ever reaches critical mass in the SoFla-Carribbean market the way B6 did at JFK, it would not shock to see a similar retreAAt from MIA-Carribbean; reducing SJU to a single frequency or removing the station eventually.

I do like AA but to the casual observer they aren't the most competitive or nimble player, ceding historically large markets to players both domestic and foreign since they seem unable to hold their ground when challenged. The upcoming JFK/PHL intl route changes speak to this.

Not to say they arent competitive when and where they want to be... but I do wonder if there will ever be a point where they draw a line in the sand or if one day they will be the marketing platform for Eagle-driven domestic feed to the Oneworld partners.
 
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Polot
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:49 pm

Jamie514 wrote:
They've retreated from their once vast JFK-Caribbean operation basically to MIA, (while JFK-Intl is more and more just a BA equipment-pool service to London). If an LCC/ULCC entrant ever reaches critical mass in the SoFla-Carribbean market the way B6 did at JFK, it would not shock to see a similar retreAAt from MIA-Carribbean; reducing SJU to a single frequency or removing the station eventually.

Have you seen FLL before? Plenty of LCC/ULCC competition to the Carribbean from there.

The difference is AA that is very strong in MIA even with the LCC/ULCC competition up the road at FLL, while at JFK they became a third string player with the rise of B6 and DL (plus CO at EWR). There will always be traffic that AA can capture on MIA-Carribbean that the LCC/ULCCs won't be able to because of AA's huge network, and they don't have a legacy carrier competitor that even comes close to their presence in the market (and there is no space at FLL or MIA for one to come and legitimately challenge them).
 
Jamie514
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:53 pm

Polot wrote:
Jamie514 wrote:
They've retreated from their once vast JFK-Caribbean operation basically to MIA, (while JFK-Intl is more and more just a BA equipment-pool service to London). If an LCC/ULCC entrant ever reaches critical mass in the SoFla-Carribbean market the way B6 did at JFK, it would not shock to see a similar retreAAt from MIA-Carribbean; reducing SJU to a single frequency or removing the station eventually.

Have you seen FLL before? Plenty of LCC/ULCC competition to the Carribbean from there.

The difference is AA that is very strong in MIA even with the LCC/ULCC competition up the road at FLL, while at JFK they became a third string player with the rise of B6 and DL (plus CO at EWR). There will always be traffic that AA can capture on MIA-Carribbean that the LCC/ULCCs won't be able to because of AA's huge network, and they don't have a legacy carrier competitor that even comes close to their presence in the market (and there is no space at FLL or MIA for one to come and legitimately challenge them).


I'm just not sure to what you owe such confidence that future market dynamics won't change. I'm not saying they will. I don't know the future. But it would've been hard to predict the AA JFK drawdown 10 years before it happened. MIA is no different to me. Maybe it is for you.
 
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Polot
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:55 pm

Jamie514 wrote:
I'm just not sure to what you owe such confidence that future market dynamics won't change. I'm not saying they will. I don't know the future. But it would've been hard to predict the AA JFK drawdown 10 years before it happened. MIA is no different to me. Maybe it is for you.

It is easier to predict when we are talking about a fortress hub here. [email protected], even in at its peak, was never anywhere close to being a dominate fortress.
 
Jamie514
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:04 pm

Polot wrote:
Jamie514 wrote:
I'm just not sure to what you owe such confidence that future market dynamics won't change. I'm not saying they will. I don't know the future. But it would've been hard to predict the AA JFK drawdown 10 years before it happened. MIA is no different to me. Maybe it is for you.

It is easier to predict when we are talking about a fortress hub here. [email protected], even in at its peak, was never anywhere close to being a dominate fortress.


Nearby FLL is up the road as you pointed out. MIA airfield may be an AA fortress. The SoFla market is hardly.
 
cheapgreek
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:17 pm

I had no idea SJU was downsized so much. Years ago I connected via SJU to AUA and PTP which had several daily flights to these islands and many more, now nothing.
 
drdisque
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:49 pm

CLT and MIA aren't going anywhere. PHL is a decently sized market and a complete monopoly, also not going anywhere any time soon. The only further cut I can see is ORD becoming seasonal if a ULCC adds it year-round.
 
flyfresno
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:19 pm

It's definitely a big surprise that AA left NYC-SJU, even with the competition. I would imagine that NYC is the second largest year-round O&D "mainland" US market out of SJU after South Florida (or maybe even #1?), but I guess there are just too many competitors on that route for AA to make money? I don't see them ever leaving the SJU market entirely, it's too important to not have any flights. If anything, they will always have MIA, and it's hard to see them leave their other routes too.
 
Brickell305
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:26 pm

Jamie514 wrote:
Polot wrote:
Jamie514 wrote:
They've retreated from their once vast JFK-Caribbean operation basically to MIA, (while JFK-Intl is more and more just a BA equipment-pool service to London). If an LCC/ULCC entrant ever reaches critical mass in the SoFla-Carribbean market the way B6 did at JFK, it would not shock to see a similar retreAAt from MIA-Carribbean; reducing SJU to a single frequency or removing the station eventually.

Have you seen FLL before? Plenty of LCC/ULCC competition to the Carribbean from there.

The difference is AA that is very strong in MIA even with the LCC/ULCC competition up the road at FLL, while at JFK they became a third string player with the rise of B6 and DL (plus CO at EWR). There will always be traffic that AA can capture on MIA-Carribbean that the LCC/ULCCs won't be able to because of AA's huge network, and they don't have a legacy carrier competitor that even comes close to their presence in the market (and there is no space at FLL or MIA for one to come and legitimately challenge them).


I'm just not sure to what you owe such confidence that future market dynamics won't change. I'm not saying they will. I don't know the future. But it would've been hard to predict the AA JFK drawdown 10 years before it happened. MIA is no different to me. Maybe it is for you.

The only way AA draws Miami down to that extent is if it's going out of business entirely. MIA has been one of AA's strong points even during their toughest years and despite the LCC/ULCC competion at FLL, MIA has remained strong and grown. AA is not leaving SJU entirely nor will the LCCs at FLL run it out of MIA.
 
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chepos
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:58 pm

Nonsense, you would see UA exit SJU first (and that is not going to happen). SJU still has a whole lot of traffic to the mainland and AA is the largest legacy In SJU. With service to MIA, DFW, ORD, CLT and PHL.
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jfklganyc
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:47 pm

SJU is service to hubs.

With regards to JFK service being axed, I will turn analogy upside down...I think AA JFK is on its way to a dehub/line station with only
service to outside LGA perimeter/international partner hubs.

SJU JFK going is more about JFK than SJU. SJU already is what it is...and AA would never leave PR completely given normal circumstances.
 
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kjeld0d
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:49 pm

I read that locals are preparing for the "Despacito Effect". Maybe AA spoke too soon?
 
77H
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:37 am

chepos wrote:
Nonsense, you would see UA exit SJU first (and that is not going to happen). SJU still has a whole lot of traffic to the mainland and AA is the largest legacy In SJU. With service to MIA, DFW, ORD, CLT and PHL.


Please illuminate us on how you figure UA would exit SJU before AA or DL?

UA has actually increased service into SJU in the past year and has been running 767's and 777's into SJU very regularly. Tomorrow for example UA is running 8 arrivals into SJU including 1 767.

77H
 
bpat777
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:55 am

77H wrote:
chepos wrote:
Nonsense, you would see UA exit SJU first (and that is not going to happen). SJU still has a whole lot of traffic to the mainland and AA is the largest legacy In SJU. With service to MIA, DFW, ORD, CLT and PHL.


Please illuminate us on how you figure UA would exit SJU before AA or DL?

UA has actually increased service into SJU in the past year and has been running 767's and 777's into SJU very regularly. Tomorrow for example UA is running 8 arrivals into SJU including 1 767.

77H


I'm booked on a UA 764 from IAD to SJU in a few weeks. I was pleasantly surprised about flying that equipment between those two cities.
 
guyanam
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sat Sep 02, 2017 8:20 am

77H wrote:
. Tomorrow for example UA is running 8 arrivals into SJU including 1 767.

77H



You cannot use Sat as a gauge as UA runs large numbers of Sat and sometimes Sun only flights. Better to see what flies in on Mondays.
 
77H
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sat Sep 02, 2017 8:33 am

guyanam wrote:
77H wrote:
. Tomorrow for example UA is running 8 arrivals into SJU including 1 767.

77H



You cannot use Sat as a gauge as UA runs large numbers of Sat and sometimes Sun only flights. Better to see what flies in on Mondays.


Sure. This upcoming Monday is 5 flights into SJU, one of which is operated by a 767-400 from EWR.

I think the overall point here is that UA is no less committed to SJU than any of the US3 carriers. Which is why I questioned the assertion that UA would exit SJU before anyone else.

77H
 
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chepos
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:32 am

77H wrote:
guyanam wrote:
77H wrote:
. Tomorrow for example UA is running 8 arrivals into SJU including 1 767.

77H



You cannot use Sat as a gauge as UA runs large numbers of Sat and sometimes Sun only flights. Better to see what flies in on Mondays.


Sure. This upcoming Monday is 5 flights into SJU, one of which is operated by a 767-400 from EWR.

I think the overall point here is that UA is no less committed to SJU than any of the US3 carriers. Which is why I questioned the assertion that UA would exit SJU before anyone else.

77H


Got a UA fan boy all bent out of shape. Listen, UA is not going to leave PR, and yes during holiday peiods and weekends they at times increase lift (like many other airlines). Just making a point, being a native of Puerto Rico this thread seems a bit silly.
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Planeflyer
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:38 am

Anyone have any good #'s on traffic growth into San Juan. I would think it is shrinking fast.
 
303dk
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:36 pm

Planeflyer wrote:
Anyone have any good #'s on traffic growth into San Juan. I would think it is shrinking fast.

You would think wrong. They've had 3 straight years of growth
 
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chepos
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sat Sep 02, 2017 2:44 pm

flyfresno wrote:
It's definitely a big surprise that AA left NYC-SJU, even with the competition. I would imagine that NYC is the second largest year-round O&D "mainland" US market out of SJU after South Florida (or maybe even #1?), but I guess there are just too many competitors on that route for AA to make money? I don't see them ever leaving the SJU market entirely, it's too important to not have any flights. If anything, they will always have MIA, and it's hard to see them leave their other routes too.


The biggest market out of SJU today is to Central Florida. Due to the large diaspora there, recent migration patterns from the island to the mainland have for the last few years been to Orlando and surrounding cities. Yes, NY metro area still has a large Puerto Rican population, but mostly descendants and not native born in the island (many who seldomly if ever visit PR). South Florida does not have a very large Puerto Rican population.
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guyanam
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:56 am

Planeflyer wrote:
Anyone have any good #'s on traffic growth into San Juan. I would think it is shrinking fast.

The DR which is way poorer than PR is a very strong market out of the USA and not just into PUJ. This is why I don't understand these gloomy scenarios. The more Puerto Ricans migrate to the USA the bigger the VFR market gets The best source of VFR business are in fact recent migrants as they still have many reasons to travel home.

The unique aspect of Puerto Ricans is that they are US citizens and are de facto part of the USA so their transitioning to life in the mainland is much more rapid than for those migrating for the DR as an example. So being a recent migrant doesn't dampen their ability to fly home, especially with the low fares.

Yes business travel will be down. Yes fewer people might travel on vacation, but the VFR market is larger. Even those who might normally travel to MCO for vacation purposes might now have relatives or friends living there so no hotel, meaning cheaper vacation.
 
guyanam
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:03 am

chepos wrote:
. Yes, NY metro area still has a large Puerto Rican population, but mostly descendants and not native born in the island (many who seldomly if ever visit PR). .


Yes VFR travel for many NY resident Puerto Ricans is now a trip to FL or some other region where there NY relatives or friends have relocated to. I have noticed in recent JFK SJU flights that they are no longer filled with NY based Puerto Ricans beaming with pleasure of returning home to see relatives. Loudly clapping and cheering as soon as the plane touched down. Now that many NY based Puerto Ricans are 3rd to 4th generation, lacking close relatives living in PR its not the same.

Even the PR Day parade in NYC isn't as popular as it used to be. 20 years ago you knew it was coming by the large numbers of flags on cars and every where. Now scarcely a peep.
 
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usxguy
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:23 am

If SJU was doing any good, then Seaborne would be doing A LOT better than they are now...
xx
 
planedudea380
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:37 am

SJU has seen a lot of changes in the past 10 years. AA's (including Eagle) hub departure, the rise of the LCC/ULCC, and the recession around when AA left, all have made impact and a change to its service. I also am shocked how AA took out JFK after several decades, though at this point yes AA has gotten down to only hub destinations. I don't think they will leave, there is still a market to be sold to different areas. One thing that can also attribute to the major airlines loads is the island's economical situation has made it hard for the population, most people prefer the cheaper options like F9, even if the flights depart at 2AM (no joke).
Last edited by planedudea380 on Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:38 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
planedudea380
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:37 am

SJU has seen a lot of changes in the past 10 years. AA's (including Eagle) hub departure, the rise of the LCC/ULCC, and the recession around when AA left, all have made impact and a change to its service. I also am shocked how AA took out JFK after several decades, though at this point yes AA has gotten down to only hub destinations. I don't think they will leave, there is still a market to be sold to different areas. One thing that can also attribute to the major airlines loads is the island's economical situation has made it hard for the population, most people prefer the cheaper options like F9, even if the flights depart at 2AM (no joke).
 
cledaybuck
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:04 am

77H wrote:
chepos wrote:
Nonsense, you would see UA exit SJU first (and that is not going to happen). SJU still has a whole lot of traffic to the mainland and AA is the largest legacy In SJU. With service to MIA, DFW, ORD, CLT and PHL.


Please illuminate us on how you figure UA would exit SJU before AA or DL?

UA has actually increased service into SJU in the past year and has been running 767's and 777's into SJU very regularly. Tomorrow for example UA is running 8 arrivals into SJU including 1 767.

77H
UA is still running seasonal Saturday only Cle-Sju. I don't think they are in any chance UA is leaving SJU anytime soon.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
77H
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 3:40 am

chepos wrote:
77H wrote:
guyanam wrote:


You cannot use Sat as a gauge as UA runs large numbers of Sat and sometimes Sun only flights. Better to see what flies in on Mondays.


Sure. This upcoming Monday is 5 flights into SJU, one of which is operated by a 767-400 from EWR.

I think the overall point here is that UA is no less committed to SJU than any of the US3 carriers. Which is why I questioned the assertion that UA would exit SJU before anyone else.

77H


Got a UA fan boy all bent out of shape. Listen, UA is not going to leave PR, and yes during holiday peiods and weekends they at times increase lift (like many other airlines). Just making a point, being a native of Puerto Rico this thread seems a bit silly.


Calling out your silly assertion doesn't make me a fan boy nor bent out of shape. Why bring up UA at all in a thread about AA? What point were you hoping to make?

77H
 
303dk
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 3:53 am

usxguy wrote:
If SJU was doing any good, then Seaborne would be doing A LOT better than they are now...

Is there verifiable data to show that they're not? Intra-Caribbean fares are sky high and I'm always on full flights. I would have assumed the opposite
 
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chepos
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 4:36 am

77H wrote:
chepos wrote:
77H wrote:

Sure. This upcoming Monday is 5 flights into SJU, one of which is operated by a 767-400 from EWR.

I think the overall point here is that UA is no less committed to SJU than any of the US3 carriers. Which is why I questioned the assertion that UA would exit SJU before anyone else.

77H


Got a UA fan boy all bent out of shape. Listen, UA is not going to leave PR, and yes during holiday peiods and weekends they at times increase lift (like many other airlines). Just making a point, being a native of Puerto Rico this thread seems a bit silly.


Calling out your silly assertion doesn't make me a fan boy nor bent out of shape. Why bring up UA at all in a thread about AA? What point were you hoping to make?

77H


Dude, come on now! In the very rare event things in Puerto Rico would ever become as bad to the point where AA is closing shop in the island UA would be gone way before. AA is a much stronger (and recognized) brand in the island than UA (in the region as a whole). It is all hypothetical as neither is leaving anytime soon.
Fly the Flag!!!!
 
Brickell305
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 4:41 am

77H wrote:
chepos wrote:
77H wrote:

Sure. This upcoming Monday is 5 flights into SJU, one of which is operated by a 767-400 from EWR.

I think the overall point here is that UA is no less committed to SJU than any of the US3 carriers. Which is why I questioned the assertion that UA would exit SJU before anyone else.

77H


Got a UA fan boy all bent out of shape. Listen, UA is not going to leave PR, and yes during holiday peiods and weekends they at times increase lift (like many other airlines). Just making a point, being a native of Puerto Rico this thread seems a bit silly.


Calling out your silly assertion doesn't make me a fan boy nor bent out of shape. Why bring up UA at all in a thread about AA? What point were you hoping to make?

77H


Your reaction is proving exactly that though. It was just a statement made to show how silly the prospect of AA leaving is. The over the top defensive way some of you behave about airlines, you would think they carried you for nine months and birthed you.
 
Brickell305
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 4:47 am

Planeflyer wrote:
Anyone have any good #'s on traffic growth into San Juan. I would think it is shrinking fast.


I think what many people here fail to realize is that most SJU traffic originates in the mainland US, not in SJU. The economic situation in SJU does affect the demand for travel but not moreso than the economic situation in the mainland US. Once the US economy is doing well, tourism travel will remain viable and the diaspora will continue returning home to visit family and friends.
 
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chepos
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:06 pm

guyanam wrote:
chepos wrote:
. Yes, NY metro area still has a large Puerto Rican population, but mostly descendants and not native born in the island (many who seldomly if ever visit PR). .


Yes VFR travel for many NY resident Puerto Ricans is now a trip to FL or some other region where there NY relatives or friends have relocated to. I have noticed in recent JFK SJU flights that they are no longer filled with NY based Puerto Ricans beaming with pleasure of returning home to see relatives. Loudly clapping and cheering as soon as the plane touched down. Now that many NY based Puerto Ricans are 3rd to 4th generation, lacking close relatives living in PR its not the same.

Even the PR Day parade in NYC isn't as popular as it used to be. 20 years ago you knew it was coming by the large numbers of flags on cars and every where. Now scarcely a peep.


Those flights are now filled with New Yorkers heading to PR to catch a cruise or something. For a much more ethnic Rican flight experience out of the NE may I suggest BDL/PHL-SJU. You will get the clapping, cheering and unruly chaotic boarding experience. LOL.
Fly the Flag!!!!
 
guyanam
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:36 pm

usxguy wrote:
If SJU was doing any good, then Seaborne would be doing A LOT better than they are now...


Why? Most, including those in the USVI, can now fly direct to the USA so have no need to use an SJU hub. The only major destination extensively using SJU will EIS, and to a lesser degree STX.

In addition tightened US visa requirements and greater accessibility to MIA has killed off shopping in SJU for all except those in the USVI/BVI.
 
guyanam
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Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:40 pm

303dk wrote:
usxguy wrote:
If SJU was doing any good, then Seaborne would be doing A LOT better than they are now...

Is there verifiable data to show that they're not? Intra-Caribbean fares are sky high and I'm always on full flights. I would have assumed the opposite



Full out of STT/STX. Not so good elsewhere. BB has discontinued its flights to the DR and to the French Antilles and runs a bare bones level of service to AXA, SXM, SKB, NEV and ANU. And they only do ANU because LI dropped the flights to the USVI and from ANU to SJU. Loads into SKB are around 50%. Few locals to be seen, meaning none of the shopping that used to be, and I bet most of them are in-transit to STT/STX.

DOM is a good market because DOM is one of the few islands that really needs a SJU hub, but then DOM can only support a daily flight.
 
guyanam
Posts: 3076
Joined: Thu Mar 04, 2010 6:21 pm

Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:45 pm

chepos wrote:
.Those flights are now filled with New Yorkers heading to PR to catch a cruise or something. For a much more ethnic Rican flight experience out of the NE may I suggest BDL/PHL-SJU. You will get the clapping, cheering and unruly chaotic boarding experience. LOL.



True. I suspect that most of the Puerto Ricans on board live on the island were travelling to NYC for any number of reasons. The rest were diversified "others". Too diversified to get a read as to their purpose of travel.

To see drama at JFK one must go to see flights to SDQ and STI.
 
PRAirbus
Posts: 738
Joined: Wed Apr 20, 2005 11:59 pm

Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 7:17 pm

AA has always reduced frequencies during the "low slow season of SEP/OCT"; these last reductions were most dramatic however by late/mid NOV thru the holiday season AA will be operating 18 daily departures out of SJU. PHL, ORD, CLT, MIA, DFW will have daily frequencies. PHL will continue with A330 service however in March 2018 will become LAA 763. UA has also reduced service to SJU this season. SEP/OCT is the peak of hurricane season the Caribbean is less desirable for vacation due to that. SJU has not been the only Caribbean station with reductions; AA will run 2 or 3 daily services (A321) on MIA-SDQ versus the usual 4 per day.
 
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LAXintl
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 7:33 pm

SJU statistics from DOT (only domestic service)

2016 - 7,619,000
2015 - 7,418,000
2014 - 7,272,000
2013 - 7,213,000
2012 - 7,246,000
2011 - 6,819,000
2010 - 7,211,000
2009 - 6,986,000

As of December 2016, the largest carrier was B6 with 34.2% market share followed by AA with 24.5% then DL with 12.8%.

Largest markets were:
JFK - 589,000 pax annually
MCO 511,000
MIA 375,000
FLL 372,000
ATL 256,000
EWR 230,000
PHL 183,000
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1094
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:00 pm

guyanam wrote:
usxguy wrote:
If SJU was doing any good, then Seaborne would be doing A LOT better than they are now...


Why? Most, including those in the USVI, can now fly direct to the USA so have no need to use an SJU hub. The only major destination extensively using SJU will EIS, and to a lesser degree STX.

In addition tightened US visa requirements and greater accessibility to MIA has killed off shopping in SJU for all except those in the USVI/BVI.


How do these two points align? Wouldn't tightened visa requirements mean reduced accessibility to MIA? Genuine question.
 
User avatar
chepos
Posts: 7273
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2000 9:40 am

Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:29 pm

LAXintl wrote:
SJU statistics from DOT (only domestic service)

2016 - 7,619,000
2015 - 7,418,000
2014 - 7,272,000
2013 - 7,213,000
2012 - 7,246,000
2011 - 6,819,000
2010 - 7,211,000
2009 - 6,986,000

As of December 2016, the largest carrier was B6 with 34.2% market share followed by AA with 24.5% then DL with 12.8%.

Largest markets were:
JFK - 589,000 pax annually
MCO 511,000
MIA 375,000
FLL 372,000
ATL 256,000
EWR 230,000
PHL 183,000


Surprising JFK is still in the #1 spot.
Fly the Flag!!!!
 
Planeflyer
Posts: 1528
Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2014 3:49 am

Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:31 pm

Ok glad to see someone still goes to SJU.

I used to travel there for business frequently but so much pharma and medical device have left it just isn't worth it anymore.
 
guyanam
Posts: 3076
Joined: Thu Mar 04, 2010 6:21 pm

Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:52 pm

chepos wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
SJU statistics from DOT (only domestic service)

2016 - 7,619,000
2015 - 7,418,000
2014 - 7,272,000
2013 - 7,213,000
2012 - 7,246,000
2011 - 6,819,000
2010 - 7,211,000
2009 - 6,986,000

As of December 2016, the largest carrier was B6 with 34.2% market share followed by AA with 24.5% then DL with 12.8%.

Largest markets were:
JFK - 589,000 pax annually
MCO 511,000
MIA 375,000
FLL 372,000
ATL 256,000
EWR 230,000
PHL 183,000


Surprising JFK is still in the #1 spot.



Only barely ahead of MCO. Considering that JFK/EWR has a more diverse range of passengers (more business and cruise passengers) MCO isn't doing so badly. I would imagine that MCO is more thoroughly VFR than JFK/EWR. Maybe FLL is also VFR oriented. I can see MCO climbing ahead in the very near future.
 
User avatar
chepos
Posts: 7273
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2000 9:40 am

Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:06 pm

Planeflyer wrote:
Ok glad to see someone still goes to SJU.

I used to travel there for business frequently but so much pharma and medical device have left it just isn't worth it anymore.


There will always be people going to SJU. Mostly for VFR but also for tourism/cruise traffic and a lesser extent business. Many of us in the diaspora at least that have extensive family ties to the island will always have a need to go back.
Fly the Flag!!!!
 
User avatar
chepos
Posts: 7273
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2000 9:40 am

Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:15 pm

I recall plane spotting at SJU in the 90's as a kid, and eventhough DL was never the biggest there it still had mostly L1011/767 flights into SJU from ATL and 1 MCO (at times almost wingtip flights from ATL). Holiday weekend and today ATL-SJU has 3 737 flights in addition to JFK. How times have changed at Luis Muñoz Marin. SJU today is LCC country.
Fly the Flag!!!!
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1094
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: AA exiting San Juan gradually?

Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:50 pm

chepos wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
SJU statistics from DOT (only domestic service)

2016 - 7,619,000
2015 - 7,418,000
2014 - 7,272,000
2013 - 7,213,000
2012 - 7,246,000
2011 - 6,819,000
2010 - 7,211,000
2009 - 6,986,000

As of December 2016, the largest carrier was B6 with 34.2% market share followed by AA with 24.5% then DL with 12.8%.

Largest markets were:
JFK - 589,000 pax annually
MCO 511,000
MIA 375,000
FLL 372,000
ATL 256,000
EWR 230,000
PHL 183,000


Surprising JFK is still in the #1 spot.

Not that surprising. While Orlando has surpassed New York as the center of the diaspora in the US, NYC likely has significantly stronger tourism demand. That coupled with the still significant diaspora in NYC are most likely the reason NYC remains #1. I also suspect that traffic to/from Orlando is more likely to connect than traffic to NYC which has a longer history of non-stop flights.

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