mikegigs wrote:

Some photos of SXM terminal from Twitter. The jetways are still (mostly) standing as of now but the damage is already excessive... I can't tell if the third and fourth pictures are the tip of the jetway that comes in contact with the aircraft or a crumpled part of a truck. Either way, very scary...

https://twitter.com/invisibleman_17/sta ... 9271692288

Looks like the terminal was flooded but the lights are still on, a good sign?

I haven't been able to find any news from St. Barts...

some videos can be viewed throughout the link below. While its obvious there is some very serious damage, you can easily tell lots of structures are very much intact. Very bad flooding with cars almost completely submerged.

https://twitter.com/hashtag/sintmaarten ... al=default

This is the hardest thing to watch. http://www.mahobeachcam.com/

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL3 ... /TJSJ/KJFK DL has one last flight out of SJU

Given the state of the airport, it doesn't look like commercial flights will resume any time soon.

kl838 wrote:

[. all the social media activity seems to be coming mainly out of Sint Maarten/Saint Martin no one knows how Antigua and St Kitts are coping.

Electricity in SKB and ANU is turned off prior to hurricanes and not turned back on until the authorities check for any downed lines. I will imagine that people are conserving their batteries so aren't posting anything. ANU will in fact be reopened from about 2PM so they must be OK. I would imagine that SKB did better than SXM as it was on the southern edge of the hurricane and missed the eyewalls with the worst winds.

kl838 wrote:

It is absolutely devastating watching my home town of SXM get ravaged. The airport seems absolutely damaged and I don't know how long it would take them to get it back up. Click the link for the pictures.

https://www.facebook.com/Cyriel.Pfennin ... nref=story

I think those pics may have been from before the back side of the eye came through. That is when things would be the worst for SXM. Unless I have my times wrong that was still early on. It seems they were taken when SXM was in the eye.

https://www.flightradar24.com/DAL302/ec2eb82 and DL302 is off!

A further look at Princess Juliana International after the storm. It gives you a good idea what sheer force Irma had.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =3&theater

Sint Maarten is in complete ruins. The flood waters are up to some of the rooftops, hotels on the beach are completely torn apart. It is utter destruction. So sorry for what everyone on that island is going thru. The airport is a mess too.

https://twitter.com/hashtag/Irma?src=hash
https://twitter.com/hashtag/StMartin?src=hash

The USVI and BVI's are currently get hit head-on by Irma as we speak. They are likely to see the same destruction.

Luckily it looks like Irma will not hit PR and SJU head-on but their will still be a lot of flooding and wind damage.

the worst of it should be over. More pics should be coming in. I heard that Maho Beach is gone.

jumbojet wrote:

more punishment for saint marten to come.

current wind speed is 140 MPH which will be sustained until just after 12:00, then it rapidly diminishes after that. By 3 PM wind speeds dip under 50 and by 8 PM under 25.

Saint Martin is my favorite place to visit, been there dozens of times. Some of the friendliest people live on that Island.

SXM is my favorite Caribbean island too, and the damage beyond the airport is immense. I hate falling into Weather Channel hyperbole, but there probably won't be a building on the island that has sustained less than significant damage. The human toll and loss of property is going to be enormous, unfortunately.
I wonder if the old YS-11 "Heineken" plane turned into a bar has survived?

The Sonesta looks to be completely destroyed....https://twitter.com/AnnieBecky/status/9 ... 6552998913

I've been scrolling through my photos of SXM, from my most recent trip taken this past March, and it's so very depressIng to realize that much of what I saw, enjoyed, walked past, ate a meal at, photographed, excursioned, etc... is either destroyed and piled in a heap of debris or blown into the Caribbean Sea, heavily damaged and will have to be torn down and rebuilt or simply stripped bare and wiped from the surface of the island. This is truly devastating for the island and will take many, many years to put right. Nothing has been left unaffected.....people's lives, basic island infrastructure and services, resorts/hotels and related tourism businesses and the ports of entry to the island (PJIA, Grand Case airport and the ship terminals).

RL757PVD wrote:

The Sonesta looks to be completely destroyed....https://twitter.com/AnnieBecky/status/9 ... 6552998913

My goodness...looks like a complete rebuild will be needed. It may be a total loss. So many buildings on the island are probably just like this, if not worse. It's heartbreaking, I've stayed at this hotel and always had a good experience.

jumbojet wrote:

CNN just mentioned it could hit land as a cat 5.

Things are not looking good here in Orlando, we just got an order to evacuate effective immediately. MCO and TPA are in trouble and MIA/FLL have to brace for impact.

MSPSXMFLIER wrote:

I've been scrolling through my photos of SXM, from my most recent trip taken this past March, and it's so very depressIng to realize that much of what I saw, enjoyed, walked past, ate a meal at, photographed, excursioned, etc... is either destroyed and piled in a heap of debris or blown into the Caribbean Sea, heavily damaged and will have to be torn down and rebuilt or simply stripped bare and wiped from the surface of the island. This is truly devastating for the island and will take many, many years to put right. Nothing has been left unaffected.....people's lives, basic island infrastructure and services, resorts/hotels and related tourism businesses and the ports of entry to the island (PJIA, Grand Case airport and the ship terminals).

The silver lining is that when everything is rebuilt, it will be hurricane proof for the future.

jumbojet wrote:

I heard that Maho Beach is gone.

Where did you hear that?

mikegigs wrote:

Some photos of SXM terminal from Twitter. The jetways are still (mostly) standing as of now but the damage is already excessive... I can't tell if the third and fourth pictures are the tip of the jetway that comes in contact with the aircraft or a crumpled part of a truck. Either way, very scary...

https://twitter.com/invisibleman_17/sta ... 9271692288

That's the jetbridge end. You can see the cabling that tethers it to the main jetway still attached.

The Antigua government said that the airport would open at 2pm today, but FlightAware says 12 noon tomorrow.

BA has cancelled LGW-ANU-SKB today and LGW-ANU-PLS tomorrow, which adds to Tuesday's LGW-ANU-TAB cancellation. However, BA is going to operate an additional flight this Friday in the day from ANU to LGW, which is BA2226, departing 0900 and arriving 2155.

This is what PJIA is looking like right now:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJD9kcUXUAAfgOR.jpg:large

Direct link to tweet: https://twitter.com/trixywh/status/905509366991912960

SMN News Facebook album of damage: https://www.facebook.com/pg/stmartinnew ... 9566108784

Another image of airport

https://twitter.com/seprr/status/905513247691984896

Can't believe a Hawker and PC-12 weren't evacuated south!

GF

Phoenix9 wrote:

Another image of airport

https://twitter.com/seprr/status/905513247691984896

Why would anyone leave a Pilatus and a Hawker at SXM unless they weren't airworthy?

Phoenix9 wrote:

.SMN News Facebook album of damage: https://www.facebook.com/pg/stmartinnew ... 9566108784

I was reading some of the comments on the sxm facebook page. This one caught my attention and its actually true

Heartbreaking! But, honestly, I expected to see everything flattened - there's more standing than I thought there would be.

jumbojet wrote:

Phoenix9 wrote:

.SMN News Facebook album of damage: https://www.facebook.com/pg/stmartinnew ... 9566108784

I was reading some of the comments on the sxm facebook page. This one caught my attention and its actually true

Heartbreaking! But, honestly, I expected to see everything flattened - there's more standing than I thought there would be.

Yeah, I agree. I just hope the foundations are strong enough to hold after water logged soil.

Phoenix9 wrote:

Another image of airport

https://twitter.com/seprr/status/905513247691984896

This is Los Cabos airport in Mexico after hurricane Odile in 2014, not a picture from SXM.
http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-ame ... story.html

Just a fake picture that has been making the rounds today.

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

Can't believe a Hawker and PC-12 weren't evacuated south!

GF

Agreed. I don't think this is on SXM, but SFG in Grand Case on the French Side.

Edit : Disregard, this was in Mexico.

Kindredmsg wrote:

Phoenix9 wrote:

Another image of airport

https://twitter.com/seprr/status/905513247691984896

This is Los Cabos airport in Mexico after hurricane Odile in 2014, not a picture from SXM.
http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-ame ... story.html

Just a fake picture that has been making the rounds today.

it didn't look like SXM airport.

FoxtrotSierra wrote:

MSPSXMFLIER wrote:

I've been scrolling through my photos of SXM, from my most recent trip taken this past March, and it's so very depressIng to realize that much of what I saw, enjoyed, walked past, ate a meal at, photographed, excursioned, etc... is either destroyed and piled in a heap of debris or blown into the Caribbean Sea, heavily damaged and will have to be torn down and rebuilt or simply stripped bare and wiped from the surface of the island. This is truly devastating for the island and will take many, many years to put right. Nothing has been left unaffected.....people's lives, basic island infrastructure and services, resorts/hotels and related tourism businesses and the ports of entry to the island (PJIA, Grand Case airport and the ship terminals).

The silver lining is that when everything is rebuilt, it will be hurricane proof for the future.

I'll have to respectfully disagree with you on that.

Firstly, hurricane proof to what level on the Saffir-Simpson scale? This was a category 5 hurricane, I believe. Storms of all kinds are increasing ever more in size and power, and I think that the trend will continue for some time to come. Katrina was a record hurricane back in 2005 and Irma has eclipsed that one in size and strength.

Secondly, St. Maarten is certainly not a rich island, in terms of financial wealth or natural resources. It will take millions of dollars and years to clean up and rebuild. I think that smaller businesses will find it too cost prohibitive to rebuild to any hurricane building standard. The island is chiefly dependent on tourism, which has now been stopped dead in its tracks for who knows how long? Sure, I can see items like the airport, utilities, some governmental buildings and many more private businesses spending money and rebuilding to the strictest code possible, but I think that is where it will stop.

Finally, I think that there is going to have to be some compromising done between the French and Dutch side governments and businesses to get them built quickly and get the island's life blood flowing again, even if that means NOT rebuilding to withstand a category 4 or 5 hurricane. France may be able to help out financially more than The Netherlands can, because of how each side is governed and connected to those countries, by form of government. It's going to come down to economics. It was 22 years and 1 day since the last hurricane, Luis, hit the island as fully as Irma just did. St. Maarten could go another 20-25 years before the next hurricane hits or it could suffer another monster storm in 2018.

I certainly am hoping for the best and broadest possible positive outcome, but that is going to have to wait for some time as there will likely be deaths to deal with, massive clean up to get underway and basic necessities such as electricity, food, water and sanitation to restore.

flymco753 wrote:

This is the hardest thing to watch. http://www.mahobeachcam.com/

Yikes!! The sound alone is terrifying, the video even moreso

Delta's travel advisory still only allows shows travel dates of September 5th to September 9th for rebooking before September 12th. And that was updated 2:22 PM on today's date. They have to be kidding me. I'm no expert but judging by the above photos, commercial flights won't see SXM soil for a long time. I have a flight there on October 12th. It breaks my heart to have to cancel my plans but it will take a miracle to get even just a small portion of the Islands infrastructure repaired by 10/12.

jumbojet wrote:

Delta's travel advisory still only allows shows travel dates of September 5th to September 9th for rebooking before September 12th. And that was updated 2:22 PM on today's date. They have to be kidding me. I'm no expert but judging by the above photos, commercial flights won't see SXM soil for a long time. I have a flight there on October 12th. It breaks my heart to have to cancel my plans but it will take a miracle to get even just a small portion of the Islands infrastructure repaired by 10/12.

I wonder if they'll fly in for relief efforts because I sure as heck won't boat to SXM.

jumbojet wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Irma will have a significant impact on Cuba/DR/Bahamas, and probably EYW and South Florida as well. Depending on the track of the storm it could be pretty bad....

CNN just mentioned it could hit land as a cat 5.

It definitely looks like we will be impacted by a major hurricane that is a Category 3, 4 or 5

full article here:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/04/us/hurric ... index.html

Cat 5s aren't real Cat 5s anymore. They measure winds aloft at the edge of the eye wall, not sustained winds on the ground to classify. They also interpret satellite data. This is very different than before when they were classified by ships that survived and ground measurements.

It's already made a direct hit on some islands as a "Cat 5" with only sustained Cat 3 winds on the ground for a brief amount of time and mainly sustained Cat 2 winds with Cat 3 gusts.

I say "only" in the relative sense, because it's still very destructive. Having been hit by a Cat 2 that stalled out (Georges) I wouldn't want to do that again. But don't believe the Cat 5 hype until there are actual sustained winds over 155 recorded anywhere. And despite the "strongest storm ever" hype, this storm simply isn't even close. Those pre 1960s storms listed as Cat 4 and 5 were much stronger, which explains the higher devastation and death toll relative to population than more recent storms (due to winds). Flooding is another matter. Category doesn't really matter much there. It's size, speed, exact location of landfall and available warm water sources that dictate rainfall.

ikramerica wrote:

jumbojet wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Irma will have a significant impact on Cuba/DR/Bahamas, and probably EYW and South Florida as well. Depending on the track of the storm it could be pretty bad....

CNN just mentioned it could hit land as a cat 5.

It definitely looks like we will be impacted by a major hurricane that is a Category 3, 4 or 5

full article here:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/04/us/hurric ... index.html

Cat 5s aren't real Cat 5s anymore. They measure winds aloft at the edge of the eye wall, not sustained winds on the ground to classify. They also interpret satellite data. This is very different than before when they were classified by ships that survived and ground measurements.

It's already made a direct hit on some islands as a "Cat 5" with only sustained Cat 3 winds on the ground for a brief amount of time and mainly sustained Cat 2 winds with Cat 3 gusts.

I say "only" in the relative sense, because it's still very destructive. Having been hit by a Cat 2 that stalled out (Georges) I wouldn't want to do that again. But don't believe the Cat 5 hype until there are actual sustained winds over 155 recorded anywhere. And despite the "strongest storm ever" hype, this storm simply isn't even close. Those pre 1960s storms listed as Cat 4 and 5 were much stronger, which explains the higher devastation and death toll relative to population than more recent storms (due to winds). Flooding is another matter. Category doesn't really matter much there. It's size, speed, exact location of landfall and available warm water sources that dictate rainfall.

This isn't hype man. Sustained winds ARE over 155 per NOAA FB page.

"Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days. An unofficial observation on Buck Island in the U.S. Virgin Islands has recently reported sustained winds of 106 mph (171 km/h) with a gust to 131 mph (211 km/h). Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)."

FoxtrotSierra wrote:

The silver lining is that when everything is rebuilt, it will be hurricane proof for the future.

Hard to hurricane proof for a Cat 5. I think the gov't buildings on the French side would have been hurricane ready, but not for this!

The damage looks much worse than Luis so this is a Cat 5. No hype there.

As Hurricane Irma appears it will turn north after the Caribbean, I have updated the thread title to encompass the broader effects the storm will have outside of the originally intended Lesser Antilles.

Just as a reminder, this topic is for discussion on AVIATION impacts from the storm. Discussion on the storm itself and topics unrelated to aviation belong in the existing Non Aviation Thread here viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1373067

✈️ atcsundevil

ikramerica wrote:

jumbojet wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Irma will have a significant impact on Cuba/DR/Bahamas, and probably EYW and South Florida as well. Depending on the track of the storm it could be pretty bad....

CNN just mentioned it could hit land as a cat 5.

It definitely looks like we will be impacted by a major hurricane that is a Category 3, 4 or 5

full article here:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/04/us/hurric ... index.html

Cat 5s aren't real Cat 5s anymore. They measure winds aloft at the edge of the eye wall, not sustained winds on the ground to classify. They also interpret satellite data. This is very different than before when they were classified by ships that survived and ground measurements.

It's already made a direct hit on some islands as a "Cat 5" with only sustained Cat 3 winds on the ground for a brief amount of time and mainly sustained Cat 2 winds with Cat 3 gusts.

I say "only" in the relative sense, because it's still very destructive. Having been hit by a Cat 2 that stalled out (Georges) I wouldn't want to do that again. But don't believe the Cat 5 hype until there are actual sustained winds over 155 recorded anywhere. And despite the "strongest storm ever" hype, this storm simply isn't even close. Those pre 1960s storms listed as Cat 4 and 5 were much stronger, which explains the higher devastation and death toll relative to population than more recent storms (due to winds). Flooding is another matter. Category doesn't really matter much there. It's size, speed, exact location of landfall and available warm water sources that dictate rainfall.

Air Force and NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft measured aloft winds, which when converted down using a regular formula indicated sustained surface wind speeds of 160 knots (185 mph) — while many storms away from land must have their intensities estimated using the Dvorak technique (which analyzes satellite imagery), Irma did actually have those winds directly measured in the eye wall. In addition, friction at the surface means that these highest wind speeds will not always be measured by surface-based weather stations. However, a weather station on Barbuda did record 155 mph winds prior to it being destroyed during the passage of Irma last night.

In addition, without going too much off topic, there is an ongoing Atlantic hurricane reanalysis project being conducted by NOAA and the National Hurricane Center. At the moment, this reanalysis has reached the 1963 hurricane season and while some of the most intense storms have seen their intensities increased (such as a 1932 hurricane which impacted Cuba which was upgraded to Category 5 status), many of the most intense hurricanes (ex: Audrey (1957), Donna (1960), Carla (1961), Hattie (1961)) saw their intensities decreased.

There is a well known fact (documented in several meteorological papers) that the intensities measured by hurricane hunter aircraft in the 1950s and 1960s regularly overestimated hurricane intensities by a large portion which is causing those hurricanes to be reanalyzed using additional knowledge about meteorological phenomena to analyze these storms. Those pre-1960s hurricanes had such high death tolls because construction standards, forecasting abilities and accuracy and the dissemination of warnings were in their infancy compared to modern techniques.

Apparently, JetBlue had to cancel B6-566 from SJU to FLL due to worsening conditions at SJU. Report I saw on Twitter indicates the passengers were brought to a stadium in/near San Juan.

https://twitter.com/FrancesRobles/statu ... 4045437953

I don't know if this was mentioned earlier, but the cone has now been shifted to where MIA/FLL could take direct hits....

gunnerman wrote:

The Antigua government said that the airport would open at 2pm today, but FlightAware says 12 noon tomorrow.

BA has cancelled LGW-ANU-SKB today and LGW-ANU-PLS tomorrow, which adds to Tuesday's LGW-ANU-TAB cancellation. However, BA is going to operate an additional flight this Friday in the day from ANU to LGW, which is BA2226, departing 0900 and arriving 2155.

ANU is definitely sending clear messages that they are back in business to minimize the number of hotel cancellations. I assume that LI will be back in action from tomorrow heading southbound from ANU at least. SXM is going to be closed for a while. EIS also got the eye so who knows when they will open. SKB didn't seem to have gotten hit too hard so the gov't should give the "all clear" for people to resume their normal duties by tomorrow. I expect the airport to be open by Friday.

Kind of quiet out of Sint Eustatius and Saint Bart's...Gate 4 at the terminal at SXM, the base of the jetway was torn completely off.

Midwestindy wrote:

I don't know if this was mentioned earlier, but the cone has now been shifted to where MIA/FLL could take direct hits....

With MIA/FLL closing on Friday I assume this will be a tough week for Eastern Caribbean aviation. SJU, SXM, and ANU are also important hubs.

We also have to watch Jose which seems as if it will also pass near to SXM as a Cat 3.

flymco753 wrote:

Kind of quiet out of Sint Eustatius and Saint Bart's...Gate 4 at the terminal at SXM, the base of the jetway was torn completely off.

Sketchy reports out of SKB indicate some damage but not severe, so I assume the same for Statia and Saba.

St Barth's is in the same dire condition as SXM. Severe flooding and damage to buildings.

Irma is going to be quite historic as I expect the BVI to sustain blows as well as the eyewall went right over.

This will be very disruptive to aviation as all of these islands close to SXM, except SKB/NEV, are 100% reliant on SXM for access, so if that airport remains closed for a long period it will really hurt those islands. DOM will also be impacted by extended closure of SXM. In addition in the short term it looks as if the only airports that will be available to LI north of ANU will be SKB and SJU. Not sure how that will impact their scheduling as SXM and EIS are decent markets for tham.

FlightAware is now reporting that ANU will be closed until 0600 on Thursday.

LIAT should have released another travel advisory at 5pm, 2.5 hours ago as I write this, but until we see it we won't know which flights on Thursday have been cancelled.

Surprisingly SXM will reopen on Friday morning. SKB as well. I guess LI has to figure out its crew and plane deployment and which routes to cancel.

guyanam wrote:

Surprisingly SXM will reopen on Friday morning. SKB as well. I guess LI has to figure out its crew and plane deployment and which routes to cancel.

They will open as in have the runway available. They will need it to bring in emergency supplies. I expect some commercial flights will trickle in if they can to return people home in both directions,

PTP seems to be open, ORY and CDG both left not too long ago. I don't think PTP closed?

I wonder how Sir Richard Branson is doing riding out the storm on Necker Island?

guyanam wrote:

Surprisingly SXM will reopen on Friday morning. SKB as well. I guess LI has to figure out its crew and plane deployment and which routes to cancel.

I'm telling you, the residents of SXM don't screw around. I bet the whole Island is already in mobilization mode, helping clear the airfield and terminal of debris as well as cleaning up the rest of the Island. Without tourism, I hate to say it, but Saint Maarten wouldn't exist. I wouldn't be the one bit surprised if by Friday, planes were flying passengers into and out of the Island. I tip my hat to all the wonderful people on SXM that are going through this very difficult time but they will definitely persevere.