FlyHossD
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:27 pm

mcdu wrote:
FlyHossD wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:
Well rumor was that UA couldn't take the A350 due to crew rest area issues. I guess we can put that rumor to a rest.


AFAIK, UAL ALPA still hasn't agreed to the crew issue for the A350. Also, I've seen a comment on FB by an ALPA rep that stated the same - no agreement yet.



They have at least 5 years to find a solution.

As for ALPA they were upset about the 65 737NG's and the dilution of the blended rate. They don't have that worry any longer. Be careful what ALPA wishes for, it often isn't in the best interest of the pilot group. ALPA is a political body filled with egos. They are not the savior they claim to be.


Where did I espouse the virtues of ALPA? I didn't. Rather, I was correcting KarelXWB's statement that the A350 crew rest issue had ended - it apparently hasn't; that's all.
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:52 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
We're going to replace the oldest B777's with the A350's We have to eventually take the 350 order anyway. So this is a damn good way to do it.. It does NOT mean United thinks the A350 is a better airplane. Not by A long SHOT.. But we had them on order and we HAVE to take then at some point. And the B777-200's are getting long in the Tooth. .And that's IT!!


So you HAVE to order them
And you HAD to increase the order from 25 to 35
And you HAD to increase the order AGAIN from 35 to 45
And you HAD to describe the A350 as "an outstanding plane"
And you HAD to make quite clear in your press release that you have secured enough options to replace the entire 777 fleet at some point, and that a re-order of the A350-1000 is quite possible in future.

Are you able to tell us what kind of pressure are Airbus able to exert to make all of those actions HAVE to happen?

Rgds
 
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Thu Sep 07, 2017 5:05 pm

intotheair wrote:
iahcsr wrote:
Max Q wrote:
This is a good decision, perhaps leaving the door open to replace the 77W with the 779 down the road.

Only oddball in the fleet now seems to be the 787-10, less range than the A359 but similar seat capacity, what is the point of that duplication ?

For one thing all 14 will be flying long before the first 359 arrives and are completely interchangeable with the other 37 78s in the UA fleet, providing excellent flexibility as needed

Let's also not forget too that the first ten 77W frames were conversions from 787-10s. It was Boeing that struck that deal, and the message from UA's management at the time was very clear that it was an opportunistic conversion and nothing more (not even anything to say about more orders or what would eventually replace the 744s). How much that has changed since then, and that was barely two years ago.

Sure, but as suggested above, it's not hard to imagine one reason why Boeing that struck that deal was to get the 777W into the fleet before the A350-1000 took hold at UA, and keeping the door open for a future 777X fleet. They also did have the 77W production line gap to fill.

Not that I think that Boeing's strategy will win, I am in the camp that sees the A35K as being more likely in the future, but it seems it was the best strategy Boeing could follow. It's also a good strategy for UA to follow. They got to retire the 747 early, got to introduce the new hard product early, and are keeping A vs B competition in their fleet.
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intotheair
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Thu Sep 07, 2017 5:57 pm

Revelation wrote:
Sure, but as suggested above, it's not hard to imagine one reason why Boeing that struck that deal was to get the 777W into the fleet before the A350-1000 took hold at UA, and keeping the door open for a future 777X fleet. They also did have the 77W production line gap to fill.

Oh, absolutely. The deal was more about the 777 production gap than it was about UA wanting a handful of bigger planes. Boeing had every reason to make that deal, and while UA eventually warmed up quite a bit to the 77W, the original plans were much more conservative. As I remember it, the 77Ws were primarily going to be upgauges of long haul routes from EWR, and the A350s were still going to replace the 744s, which weren't slated to leave the fleet until ~2020 or so.

Not that I think that Boeing's strategy will win, I am in the camp that sees the A35K as being more likely in the future, but it seems it was the best strategy Boeing could follow. It's also a good strategy for UA to follow. They got to retire the 747 early, got to introduce the new hard product early, and are keeping A vs B competition in their fleet.

I agree. It was either Kirby or Levy who recently said that the 77W is the largest plane they feel comfortable with. The 777X is starting to get to a point where only a few routes in UA's system could handle it. The 330-360 seat range of the A350 and 77W is probably about right for UA. But I'm sure Boeing will try to sell some 777Xs to them at some point, just like how Airbus pitched the A380 to UA not too long ago, to which Smisek had a very colorful response.
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Stitch
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:01 pm

Revelation wrote:
Sure, but as suggested above, it's not hard to imagine one reason why Boeing that struck that deal was to get the 777W into the fleet before the A350-1000 took hold at UA, and keeping the door open for a future 777X fleet.


If UA is strongly interested in the 777X, it seems counterproductive to me to convert their A350-900 order to A350-1000s in June of 2013 when Boeing had completed initial design work on the 777X and likely had Authority to Offer on the 777X so they would have been actively engaging potential customers.

It seems clear to me that UA wanted the 747-400s out by the end of 2017 (even if they previously said they would be in the fleet longer), if for no other reason they all would require fuel-tank inerting, but I also believe maintenance costs, dispatch reliability and capacity were issues, as well.

With the delays to the A350 program, the A350-1000 EIS was slipping to past 2017 for the first customers, so UA would be even farther back. Add to that fuel becoming "cheap" again, Boeing lowering ASPs on the 777-300ER to secure orders and with availability well before the A350-1000 and the overall commonality between the 777-200 fleet and the 777-300ER made it much more palatable to UA in 2016 than it was in 2013 and that the 777X is not really playing into the decision.
 
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Keith2004
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:08 pm

jumbojet wrote:
First, congrats to UA. Serious question, not meant to bash UA.

Being that they're replacing the 777's, why even bother sending the 777s in for refurbishment? If they're only going to be around for another 5 or so years, why waste the money on very expensive mods. The business class seats in the 777 aren't that horrible that they have to spend the money to replace them with Polaris seats just to retire them in 5 years. Seems to be a huge waste. The 777 seat is flat bed and you do get the upgraded Polaris service. Why not simply accelerate the refurbs on the 787 and leave the 777 as is, after all, the 787 will be around for a heck of a lot longer than the 777.

Also, if you remember back when DL refurbished the 747 and then approximately 5 years afterwards announced its retirement, people on here raked DL across the coals for wasting money. So, I ask a perfectly legitimate question, is this a good approach for UA to take as opposed to the approach that DL took?



The 777s with 8 across J (some of the oldest) Is just not a competitive product to take them 5-10 more years.
 
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:24 pm

Stitch wrote:
With the delays to the A350 program, the A350-1000 EIS was slipping to past 2017 for the first customers, so UA would be even farther back. Add to that fuel becoming "cheap" again, Boeing lowering ASPs on the 777-300ER to secure orders and with availability well before the A350-1000 and the overall commonality between the 777-200 fleet and the 777-300ER made it much more palatable to UA in 2016 than it was in 2013 and that the 777X is not really playing into the decision.

Yes, you are correct, but perhaps are primarily telling the story from UA's point of view. IMHO, from B's point of view, in 2013 they did not have the same visibility into the production gap so were less inclined to offer lower ASPs, and perhaps presumed they could still close the deal since they were the incumbent. In 2016 they had tons of visibility into the maw of the production gap and A35K had closed its deal already, so they had much more incentive to offer lower ASPs.
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:59 pm

blockski wrote:
Polot wrote:
blockski wrote:
I wouldn't assume the A359s will completely replace the 777-200ERs. Something like ~20 of those -200ERs are ex-Continental planes that were delivered between 2010 and 2011; they're substantially newer than the ex-United aircraft.

Note not all of the PMCO 777s are that new. 16 are 98-00, 2 are 02, and 4 are 07-10.

I imagine the PMCO 777s will be among the last 77Es to leave no matter the age because of their superior capability and GE engines giving them greater commonality with the 77Ws though.


Ah, thanks - I was going off of this source, which puts them all at 2010-2011; that must be something merger related...

http://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/Unit ... e-b777.htm

AIrfleets is wrong. There are many 777-224s older than 222s.
 
jayunited
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:16 pm

UA444 wrote:
blockski wrote:
Polot wrote:

Note not all of the PMCO 777s are that new. 16 are 98-00, 2 are 02, and 4 are 07-10.

I imagine the PMCO 777s will be among the last 77Es to leave no matter the age because of their superior capability and GE engines giving them greater commonality with the 77Ws though.


Ah, thanks - I was going off of this source, which puts them all at 2010-2011; that must be something merger related...

http://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/Unit ... e-b777.htm

AIrfleets is wrong. There are many 777-224s older than 222s.


Airfleets is not wrong people are not reading the information correctly. If they click on the registration link for each aircraft they will see the actual date when the aircraft was registered and delivered to Continental Airlines and they will also see the date the registration was changed to reflect United airlines. The latest registration is what is showing on the main Boeing 777 active with United Airlines screen; the actual delivery date to Continental Airlines can be viewed on a separate screen this secondary page is where you will find the real delivery date.

I hope this clears things up.
 
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NeBaNi
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:35 pm

Stitch wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Sure, but as suggested above, it's not hard to imagine one reason why Boeing that struck that deal was to get the 777W into the fleet before the A350-1000 took hold at UA, and keeping the door open for a future 777X fleet.


If UA is strongly interested in the 777X, it seems counterproductive to me to convert their A350-900 order to A350-1000s in June of 2013 when Boeing had completed initial design work on the 777X and likely had Authority to Offer on the 777X so they would have been actively engaging potential customers.

It seems clear to me that UA wanted the 747-400s out by the end of 2017 (even if they previously said they would be in the fleet longer), if for no other reason they all would require fuel-tank inerting, but I also believe maintenance costs, dispatch reliability and capacity were issues, as well.

With the delays to the A350 program, the A350-1000 EIS was slipping to past 2017 for the first customers, so UA would be even farther back. Add to that fuel becoming "cheap" again, Boeing lowering ASPs on the 777-300ER to secure orders and with availability well before the A350-1000 and the overall commonality between the 777-200 fleet and the 777-300ER made it much more palatable to UA in 2016 than it was in 2013 and that the 777X is not really playing into the decision.

I think this post summarizes the situation with the most accuracy. It wasn't just one reason why UA changed its order, it was a bunch of reasons coming together at the right time.
 
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DL757NYC
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:08 am

Why is United replacing the 777 with the A350 and not the 777X.
 
CHI2DFW
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:19 am

Stitch wrote:
WIederling wrote:
fightforlove wrote:
This conversion, along with United's decision to take 77Ws rather than waiting another 1-2 years for the A35K, raises doubts as to how much better the A35K is than the 77W?

That is intentional. Question is how much revenue that has cost Boeing.


Well considering the original plan was to not order 777-300ERs, I'd say Boeing gained revenue.


Max Q wrote:
Only oddball in the fleet now seems to be the 787-10, less range than the A359 but similar seat capacity, what is the point of that duplication ?


I would expect it to have better operating economics on ORD/IAD/EWR-TATL and a fair number of South America routes due to it's lower operating weight and slightly better payload (more passenger and cargo volume). I see the A350-900 handling TPAC 777-200ER missions as well as LAX/SFO/DEN-TATL.


Hopefully ORD will see these planes since the 787 is not on the schedule and the 77W will be focused at SFO and EWR.
 
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Fri Sep 08, 2017 2:14 am

DL757NYC wrote:
Why is United replacing the 777 with the A350 and not the 777X.

The 77W is a big increase in capacity over the aircraft that they are intending to replace.
 
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:59 am

DL757NYC wrote:
Why is United replacing the 777 with the A350 and not the 777X.


The A350-900s will replace UA's 777-200ERs and are absolutely perfect for that role. Replacing them with 777-9s would represent a significant increase in size. Since UA reverted from the A350-1000 back to the -900, they clearly wanted something closer in size.
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:14 am

astuteman wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
We're going to replace the oldest B777's with the A350's We have to eventually take the 350 order anyway. So this is a damn good way to do it.. It does NOT mean United thinks the A350 is a better airplane. Not by A long SHOT.. But we had them on order and we HAVE to take then at some point. And the B777-200's are getting long in the Tooth. .And that's IT!!


So you HAVE to order them
And you HAD to increase the order from 25 to 35
And you HAD to increase the order AGAIN from 35 to 45
And you HAD to describe the A350 as "an outstanding plane"
And you HAD to make quite clear in your press release that you have secured enough options to replace the entire 777 fleet at some point, and that a re-order of the A350-1000 is quite possible in future.

Are you able to tell us what kind of pressure are Airbus able to exert to make all of those actions HAVE to happen?

Rgds

From how you describe it, it must have been some kind of mixture of
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:27 pm

I think UA was able to convince Airbus to change the order to 45 A359's because Airbus has yet to assemble any A35K's for UA. Besides, it makes more sense for UA, since by the time the first A359's arrive on UA property, they will be used for one purpose: replace UA's aging 777-200 and 777-200ER fleet (UA has some of the oldest 777's flying out there).

However, it really makes me wonder did UA quietly gotten a deal to buy more 77W's at reasonable prices? My guess is that UA has signed a deal to buy six more 77W's, which will allow the airline replace the capacity lost with the retirement of the 744.
 
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:40 pm

UA only pushed there decision into the future. They might even still cancel the A350.
 
ILNFlyer
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:44 pm

Apparently the death of the A-350 at UA was greatly exaggerated.
 
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:50 pm

seahawk wrote:
UA only pushed there decision into the future. They might even still cancel the A350.


Seriously? How ridiculous. Why would they have increased the order, to just face a larger penalty in the future when they cancel? Come on... And it's "their," not "there."

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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:21 pm

FlyHossD wrote:
mcdu wrote:
FlyHossD wrote:

AFAIK, UAL ALPA still hasn't agreed to the crew issue for the A350. Also, I've seen a comment on FB by an ALPA rep that stated the same - no agreement yet.



They have at least 5 years to find a solution.

As for ALPA they were upset about the 65 737NG's and the dilution of the blended rate. They don't have that worry any longer. Be careful what ALPA wishes for, it often isn't in the best interest of the pilot group. ALPA is a political body filled with egos. They are not the savior they claim to be.


Where did I espouse the virtues of ALPA? I didn't. Rather, I was correcting KarelXWB's statement that the A350 crew rest issue had ended - it apparently hasn't; that's all.



The rumor going around at Willis is Airbus has agreed to make the pilot crew rest area compliant, we will see. Since the A350 currently configured it absolutely not FAR 117 compliant it does not meet the linear inch requirements for the sleep surfaces , just barely though.

Delta got their FRMS exemption from the FAA recently but their contract does not require that ALPA agrees with DAL management on an FRMS versus the UAL ALPA agreements requiring both parties have to agree to any FRMS exemptions before it goes to the FAA for review.
 
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:30 pm

ILNFlyer wrote:
Apparently the death of the A-350 at UA was greatly exaggerated.


The death of the A350-1000 order and UA not taking the airplanes scheduled for them was true. What no one agreed on was what would replace that order. Deliveries if A350-900s in 2022-2027 is a great solution and some did speculate that the A350 order was just being postponed
 
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:32 pm

seahawk wrote:
UA only pushed there decision into the future. They might even still cancel the A350.


Keep dreaming. A350 order at United is here to stay - much to yours, and others, dismay. And it opens the door for A350-1000 as an eventual replacement of the 777-300ER.
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:59 pm

ILNFlyer wrote:
Apparently the death of the A-350 at UA was greatly exaggerated.


They certainly stopped all of their internal processes to get ready for the A350 and perhaps even let the cancellation rumor run wild to improve their negotiating position. 45 A359s feels like the right choice. Between those planes, the 78Js, a few additional 77Ws and the likely Boeing MoM order they will be set for a very long time.
 
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:30 pm

seahawk wrote:
UA only pushed there decision into the future. They might even still cancel the A350.


Sure, they "might". However, there is little logic in converting the order to A359s and adding 10 to the total if all you wanted to do was push the order back. Sorry, it just makes no sense to me. Additionally, they have been very specific about what role the A359 will play at UA. This seems pretty logical and I doubt they're just blowing smoke.
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:11 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
Sure, they "might". However, there is little logic in converting the order to A359s and adding 10 to the total if all you wanted to do was push the order back. Sorry, it just makes no sense to me. Additionally, they have been very specific about what role the A359 will play at UA. This seems pretty logical and I doubt they're just blowing smoke.

Also, it's a safe bet that Airbus got concessions such as more protection against order cancellation in exchange for pushing back the dates.

It makes much more sense to use 45 A359s to replace 772s as they age out instead of the original deal for 35 A35Js.

I think you can be sure there that UA will be taking the A359s.
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:11 pm

Revelation wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
Sure, they "might". However, there is little logic in converting the order to A359s and adding 10 to the total if all you wanted to do was push the order back. Sorry, it just makes no sense to me. Additionally, they have been very specific about what role the A359 will play at UA. This seems pretty logical and I doubt they're just blowing smoke.

Also, it's a safe bet that Airbus got concessions such as more protection against order cancellation in exchange for pushing back the dates.

It makes much more sense to use 45 A359s to replace 772s as they age out instead of the original deal for 35 A35Js.

I think you can be sure there that UA will be taking the A359s.

That depends on who had the stronger position in the negotiations. Was UA more eager to modify the order or Airbus more eager to keep the customer?
 
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:35 pm

LPSHobby wrote:
and wich plane will be used to replace the 744s? how many 744s are left in the fleet?



The B777-300's are taking the place of the B747-400's. Might even see the A350 flying some long range routes Atlantic and Pacific but the B777 will be the preferrede airplane for the 747 replacement I feel. At least we'll get the A350 monkey off our back and see exactly what the airplnae will do vs the B777 and the B787 so there will be NO doubt what the fleet plan should be in the future,
 
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:46 pm

seahawk wrote:
Revelation wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
Sure, they "might". However, there is little logic in converting the order to A359s and adding 10 to the total if all you wanted to do was push the order back. Sorry, it just makes no sense to me. Additionally, they have been very specific about what role the A359 will play at UA. This seems pretty logical and I doubt they're just blowing smoke.

Also, it's a safe bet that Airbus got concessions such as more protection against order cancellation in exchange for pushing back the dates.

It makes much more sense to use 45 A359s to replace 772s as they age out instead of the original deal for 35 A35Js.

I think you can be sure there that UA will be taking the A359s.

That depends on who had the stronger position in the negotiations. Was UA more eager to modify the order or Airbus more eager to keep the customer?

The starting point will be the original contract, which based on the customer and timing will likely have been on the softer side of medium.

The deferral will have played into the OEM's hands, offset by the volume increase (benefit to customer), offset by unit value decrease (OEM benefit).

Net position - a real increase in unit value (smaller discount concealed by switch to a smaller model) and more OEM centric contract T&C's.
 
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Revelation
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:49 pm

Planesmart wrote:
Net position - a real increase in unit value (smaller discount concealed by switch to a smaller model) and more OEM centric contract T&C's.

I agree. In the end, the vendor was holding on to a big chunk of the customer's cash. A deal can be struck if it's mutually beneficial but the vendor is not going to make it more friendly to the customer.
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:27 pm

UA did the right thing by converting this order. The A359 is the right plane to help replace the 772 and 77E in their fleet. When the A350 program was conceived it was meant to replicate and be a competitor to the 777 not the 787. UA is using the A359 for just those purposes. They are replacing their 772 and 77E fleet. I also think they will utilize the 78J for those same purposes as well. As the 78J is more of a competitor to the 777 then it is to the A332, which is competing against the 788 and 789.

UA currently has 55 77E in service and 19 772 in service, which are essentially being used for domestic routes. So with an order of 45 A359 that leaves 29 vacancies to fill the remaining 772, and 77E. Six of those ER's are only 6 years old and won't need replacing as they will be in service until at least 2030 or so. UA has 14 78J's on order which only leaves a net of 9 aircraft to replace the 772 and 77E. The 78J is also being used to replace the 764, so UA will need to probably make another order of one kind or another to satisfy the replacement of the 772 and 77E.
 
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:38 am

^My guess is that the MoM will replace the 19 non-ER 772s doing domestic runs.
 
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Sun Sep 10, 2017 6:04 pm

I'm not really sure what the big news is. Basically, they slightly changed the terms of an existing order and pushed off delivery of their items from 5 to 10 years into the future.

A lot can happen in that time. Just look at what's happened at United, (and the industry), over the past 5 to 10 years. All United had to do to set the stage for this announcement was to crank out a press release and get the IT department to shrink the -1000 graphic.

Reading between the lines, the news here, (imo), is that United getting a bit gun shy about huge payouts and is looking for ways to reduce their overhead, at least for the near term. I expect more airlines to significantly defer big orders.
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TWA772LR
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Sun Sep 10, 2017 6:27 pm

What's the latest on the development of the A350 Regional? That would be a better replacement for the 77A.
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Sun Sep 10, 2017 6:29 pm

JoeCanuck wrote:
I'm not really sure what the big news is. Basically, they slightly changed the terms of an existing order and pushed off delivery of their items from 5 to 10 years into the future.

A lot can happen in that time. Just look at what's happened at United, (and the industry), over the past 5 to 10 years. All United had to do to set the stage for this announcement was to crank out a press release and get the IT department to shrink the -1000 graphic.

Reading between the lines, the news here, (imo), is that United getting a bit gun shy about huge payouts and is looking for ways to reduce their overhead, at least for the near term. I expect more airlines to significantly defer big orders.


The delivery is slated for 2022...

And I echo what others have said above, if United are trying to reduce overhead costs, why did they upsize the order by 10?
 
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Sun Sep 10, 2017 6:35 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
What's the latest on the development of the A350 Regional? That would be a better replacement for the 77A.


The A350-900 Regional just offers lower operating weights and de-rated engine thrust. There are a number of Weight Variants that could apply (WV005 / 008 / 014 / 017) ranging from a low of 210,000kg to a high of 250,000kg based on Airbus' original press release in November 2013 noting the MTOW would be around 250,000kg with 70,000 pound engine thrust ratings.
 
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Sun Sep 10, 2017 9:06 pm

JoeCanuck wrote:
I'm not really sure what the big news is. Basically, they slightly changed the terms of an existing order and pushed off delivery of their items from 5 to 10 years into the future.

A lot can happen in that time. Just look at what's happened at United, (and the industry), over the past 5 to 10 years. All United had to do to set the stage for this announcement was to crank out a press release and get the IT department to shrink the -1000 graphic.

Reading between the lines, the news here, (imo), is that United getting a bit gun shy about huge payouts and is looking for ways to reduce their overhead, at least for the near term. I expect more airlines to significantly defer big orders.


The key takeaway from this order is the 77E replacement is outlined, which is a significant chunk of the UA fleet.
 
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Sun Sep 10, 2017 10:02 pm

BG777300ER wrote:
^My guess is that the MoM will replace the 19 non-ER 772s doing domestic runs.


They'll probably replace the transatlantic 757's first.
 
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Mon Sep 11, 2017 12:42 am

JetBuddy wrote:
Snip snip.. most interesting bits from United memo:

SonomaFlyer wrote:

Today we also announced significant changes to our Airbus A350 order, most notable of which is the timing of deliveries. We decided to defer these aircraft until 2022 to align with the replacement of our fleet of 55 Boeing 777-200ERs, which begin to turn 25 years old in 2023. Adjusting the timing of delivery of the A350s in no way limits our plan to grow and renew our fleet. We continue to take delivery of 777-300ERs, with the fleet growing to 18 aircraft by the end of next year, and will welcome our first 787-10 next year. Neither aircraft type was anticipated when we placed our original A350 order, and both types will fill our widebody growth needs over the next several years. In addition to our firm commitments shown below, we also plan to supplement our fleet with additional used aircraft.

Additionally, it was hard to justify having a small subfleet of 35 A350s spread out over our seven hubs, as there would be operational inefficiencies with crews, aircraft routings and spare parts, so we increased the order size to 45 aircraft. We also converted the order from the A350-1000 variant to the A350-900, which is a better fit for our network. We believe the smaller A350-900 is the better choice for United for our long range planning needs, as the A350-1000 is a larger aircraft that is comparable to the 18 777-300ERs being delivered through next year to replace the 747-400 fleet. Importantly, we have the ability to swap some of the A350-900 aircraft into the larger -1000 version if our views on aircraft size change over time.

The A350-900 is an outstanding aircraft with the size and range to be an excellent replacement for our 777-200ERs, and we have a substantial number of options we can exercise for more A350-900s. So if we decide to make this the sole replacement for the 777 fleet, we will be able to do so on similar, very attractive, economic terms.



I find it interesting that they are evaluating replacing the entire 777 fleet with A350s down the line. But with new 77W coming in, I'm sure that wouldn't happen for at least 12-15 years. Also notable that they have a lot of A350 options at favorable prices. Upgrades to -1000 might happen later as well.

I think your reading into "777 fleet" too much. I think he is still only referring to the 777-200ER fleet as he is talking about more A350-900's.
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:17 am

Why do some of the great legacy airlines such as UA or BA generally keep their aircraft happily flying for 24+ years when 'other' airlines keep their aircraft for only half that time?
From the outside (to consumers) they all look the same and the interior can always be (and is) refurbished.Buying 2 planes when only 1 is necessary seems financial madness to me.(Not that A or B are complaining Mind!)
 
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Mon Sep 11, 2017 12:02 pm

Leeham has just posted an analysis of the order. Can anybody provide some info from behind the paywall?
 
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Mon Sep 11, 2017 12:45 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
JoeCanuck wrote:
I'm not really sure what the big news is. Basically, they slightly changed the terms of an existing order and pushed off delivery of their items from 5 to 10 years into the future.

A lot can happen in that time. Just look at what's happened at United, (and the industry), over the past 5 to 10 years. All United had to do to set the stage for this announcement was to crank out a press release and get the IT department to shrink the -1000 graphic.

Reading between the lines, the news here, (imo), is that United getting a bit gun shy about huge payouts and is looking for ways to reduce their overhead, at least for the near term. I expect more airlines to significantly defer big orders.


The delivery is slated for 2022...

And I echo what others have said above, if United are trying to reduce overhead costs, why did they upsize the order by 10?
Because Airbus wasn't willing to let them defer their order and downgauge without getting something in return.
Last edited by cledaybuck on Mon Sep 11, 2017 12:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Mon Sep 11, 2017 12:52 pm

JoeCanuck wrote:
Reading between the lines, the news here, (imo), is that United getting a bit gun shy about huge payouts and is looking for ways to reduce their overhead, at least for the near term. I expect more airlines to significantly defer big orders.
To me the news here is that UA has changed their fleet strategy yet again. First it was 359 to replace 744, then 3510 to replace 744, then 773ER to replace 744 and 3510 for ?, and now 359 to replace 772ER. And that is just this order without getting into the narrowbodies! I think UA needs to come up with a strategy and more or less stick to it. All these changes have to have a price.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:24 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
JoeCanuck wrote:
Reading between the lines, the news here, (imo), is that United getting a bit gun shy about huge payouts and is looking for ways to reduce their overhead, at least for the near term. I expect more airlines to significantly defer big orders.
To me the news here is that UA has changed their fleet strategy yet again. First it was 359 to replace 744, then 3510 to replace 744, then 773ER to replace 744 and 3510 for ?, and now 359 to replace 772ER. And that is just this order without getting into the narrowbodies! I think UA needs to come up with a strategy and more or less stick to it. All these changes have to have a price.


I suspect the original A359 order was placed with a likely intent to switch to the 3510 when it launched. However, that was before they ordered 77Ws
 
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Mon Sep 11, 2017 2:02 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
JoeCanuck wrote:
Reading between the lines, the news here, (imo), is that United getting a bit gun shy about huge payouts and is looking for ways to reduce their overhead, at least for the near term. I expect more airlines to significantly defer big orders.
To me the news here is that UA has changed their fleet strategy yet again. First it was 359 to replace 744, then 3510 to replace 744, then 773ER to replace 744 and 3510 for ?, and now 359 to replace 772ER. And that is just this order without getting into the narrowbodies! I think UA needs to come up with a strategy and more or less stick to it. All these changes have to have a price.


While I agree it appears that UA is rather indecisive, I think coming up with one strategy and sticking to it is also not a good idea. Orders are being made 6 or more years before first delivery. A lot of things change. Back in 2010, that was before Norwegian was flying Transatlantic and before Chinese airlines were dumping transpacific capacity at low cost. US premium demand was cratering and there were people wondering if the United States would ever get as low as 5% unemployment again or oil at $50 a barrel for an extended time. Back then UA was in contraction mode especially domestically. Simultaneously the 77W was selling at extremely high prices. Boeing and Airbus were desperate for some orders since 2010 was a slow year and UA could place an order far into the future for the A350/787 at attractive launch discount level pricing. Since then 77W prices dropped and so did oil prices. Domestic demand has surged as airlines merged and the US economy grew. The NRT hub is gone and longer thin routes are becoming the next growth opportunity for UA.

Once UA has an airplane in service, they keep it for 20+ years. The best way to adjust their fleet is through what new airplanes are being acquired. If they want to grow international capacity, they buy long haul planes or upgauge those upcoming deliveries. If they want to increase domestic capacity, they can shift widebodies to domestic and replace them with new orders or go shopping on the used market. UA has a huge fleet and it can be challenging to adjust. I believe the 737-700 order was not well planned, but I can understand logic behind all the changes to their widebody fleet plan. Orders for airplanes more than 5 years in the might as well be written in pencil since that is how fast the market is changing and shifting. Airbus and Boeing know this.

My point is that the market shifts dramatically. I would be surprised if UA actually took delivery of 45 A350-900s between 2022 and 2027. They might order more to fully replace the 777-200 fleet. They might upgauge to A350-1000s, or they might defer or shrink the order. Markets change and UA uses the airplanes it has on order to adjust the current fleet.
 
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Mon Sep 11, 2017 2:37 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
JoeCanuck wrote:
Reading between the lines, the news here, (imo), is that United getting a bit gun shy about huge payouts and is looking for ways to reduce their overhead, at least for the near term. I expect more airlines to significantly defer big orders.
To me the news here is that UA has changed their fleet strategy yet again. First it was 359 to replace 744, then 3510 to replace 744, then 773ER to replace 744 and 3510 for ?, and now 359 to replace 772ER. And that is just this order without getting into the narrowbodies! I think UA needs to come up with a strategy and more or less stick to it. All these changes have to have a price.


While I agree it appears that UA is rather indecisive, I think coming up with one strategy and sticking to it is also not a good idea. Orders are being made 6 or more years before first delivery. A lot of things change. Back in 2010, that was before Norwegian was flying Transatlantic and before Chinese airlines were dumping transpacific capacity at low cost. US premium demand was cratering and there were people wondering if the United States would ever get as low as 5% unemployment again or oil at $50 a barrel for an extended time. Back then UA was in contraction mode especially domestically. Simultaneously the 77W was selling at extremely high prices. Boeing and Airbus were desperate for some orders since 2010 was a slow year and UA could place an order far into the future for the A350/787 at attractive launch discount level pricing. Since then 77W prices dropped and so did oil prices. Domestic demand has surged as airlines merged and the US economy grew. The NRT hub is gone and longer thin routes are becoming the next growth opportunity for UA.

Once UA has an airplane in service, they keep it for 20+ years. The best way to adjust their fleet is through what new airplanes are being acquired. If they want to grow international capacity, they buy long haul planes or upgauge those upcoming deliveries. If they want to increase domestic capacity, they can shift widebodies to domestic and replace them with new orders or go shopping on the used market. UA has a huge fleet and it can be challenging to adjust. I believe the 737-700 order was not well planned, but I can understand logic behind all the changes to their widebody fleet plan. Orders for airplanes more than 5 years in the might as well be written in pencil since that is how fast the market is changing and shifting. Airbus and Boeing know this.

My point is that the market shifts dramatically. I would be surprised if UA actually took delivery of 45 A350-900s between 2022 and 2027. They might order more to fully replace the 777-200 fleet. They might upgauge to A350-1000s, or they might defer or shrink the order. Markets change and UA uses the airplanes it has on order to adjust the current fleet.
I understand the need for some flexibility, but their whole process seems rather disjointed. "Oh look, a good deal on 777W, lets get some. Oh look, cheap 737G, lets get some. A350 or 787, they both look good get 25 of each. We want A3510 instead of A359, just add 10 to the order and Airbus will let us change. We want A359 instead of A3510, just add 10 to the order and Airbus will let us change." I realize that is not what really happened, but it looks like that from an outsiders perspective. As you said, they will keep these planes for 25 years. While short term changes are important, there should be a long term plan in place which shouldn't change drastically every couple years.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Mon Sep 11, 2017 2:43 pm

It looks weird from an outsider perspective. I assume that on the inside, as when the 77Ws were being evaluated for that order, conversations were probably going on with Airbus on the A350-1000 order. Airplane orders can take several months to a year to fully develop and get announced publicly. We still don't have the whole story with what will replace 757 and 767s yet, but that probably is also in the works.
 
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Mon Sep 11, 2017 2:45 pm

The 77W caused clear problems for UAs strategic fleet plan and the 35J. UA will have some of the last 77Ws off the line, those aircraft are not going to need to be replaced for many years. IF (big IF) the 35J/77X is as good as A & B claim they are and fuel costs reis significantly, these aircraft may have short lives, like the A346 did. UA might be a bit late to the 77W party, but replacing ageing 772s and 77Es with 359s seems like a good plan. My guess is that the 22 GE powered 77Es will be the last to leave the fleet, depending on fuel costs, possibly becoming domestic aircraft in later years - cycles should be pretty low on these.

BG777300ER wrote:
^My guess is that the MoM will replace the 19 non-ER 772s doing domestic runs.


I hear a lot about the MoM on a.net, but no-one seems to know what the aircraft is, what it will look like, single or dual aisle, GTF/LEAP technology, or something else. 752 sized, or maybe larger. The 772 domestic fleet is a high capacity aircraft I doubt a MoM (key here is middle of the market) type aircraft will replace it. An A321neo size aircraft replacing a 772 just doesn't sound right to me.
 
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Mon Sep 11, 2017 3:08 pm

BrianDromey wrote:
The 77W caused clear problems for UAs strategic fleet plan and the 35J. UA will have some of the last 77Ws off the line, those aircraft are not going to need to be replaced for many years. IF (big IF) the 35J/77X is as good as A & B claim they are and fuel costs reis significantly, these aircraft may have short lives, like the A346 did. UA might be a bit late to the 77W party, but replacing ageing 772s and 77Es with 359s seems like a good plan. My guess is that the 22 GE powered 77Es will be the last to leave the fleet, depending on fuel costs, possibly becoming domestic aircraft in later years - cycles should be pretty low on these.

BG777300ER wrote:
^My guess is that the MoM will replace the 19 non-ER 772s doing domestic runs.


I hear a lot about the MoM on a.net, but no-one seems to know what the aircraft is, what it will look like, single or dual aisle, GTF/LEAP technology, or something else. 752 sized, or maybe larger. The 772 domestic fleet is a high capacity aircraft I doubt a MoM (key here is middle of the market) type aircraft will replace it. An A321neo size aircraft replacing a 772 just doesn't sound right to me.


There are have been numerous threads on a.net about the MOM, including those with data and slides from Boeing. Just do a basic search and you'll find what the aircraft may be, but since its in development there is no final config. It will be larger than 752/A321neo and dual aisle apparently.
 
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Mon Sep 11, 2017 3:09 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
To me the news here is that UA has changed their fleet strategy yet again. First it was 359 to replace 744, then 3510 to replace 744, then 773ER to replace 744 and 3510 for ?, and now 359 to replace 772ER. And that is just this order without getting into the narrowbodies! I think UA needs to come up with a strategy and more or less stick to it. All these changes have to have a price.


While I agree it appears that UA is rather indecisive, I think coming up with one strategy and sticking to it is also not a good idea. Orders are being made 6 or more years before first delivery. A lot of things change. Back in 2010, that was before Norwegian was flying Transatlantic and before Chinese airlines were dumping transpacific capacity at low cost. US premium demand was cratering and there were people wondering if the United States would ever get as low as 5% unemployment again or oil at $50 a barrel for an extended time. Back then UA was in contraction mode especially domestically. Simultaneously the 77W was selling at extremely high prices. Boeing and Airbus were desperate for some orders since 2010 was a slow year and UA could place an order far into the future for the A350/787 at attractive launch discount level pricing. Since then 77W prices dropped and so did oil prices. Domestic demand has surged as airlines merged and the US economy grew. The NRT hub is gone and longer thin routes are becoming the next growth opportunity for UA.

Once UA has an airplane in service, they keep it for 20+ years. The best way to adjust their fleet is through what new airplanes are being acquired. If they want to grow international capacity, they buy long haul planes or upgauge those upcoming deliveries. If they want to increase domestic capacity, they can shift widebodies to domestic and replace them with new orders or go shopping on the used market. UA has a huge fleet and it can be challenging to adjust. I believe the 737-700 order was not well planned, but I can understand logic behind all the changes to their widebody fleet plan. Orders for airplanes more than 5 years in the might as well be written in pencil since that is how fast the market is changing and shifting. Airbus and Boeing know this.

My point is that the market shifts dramatically. I would be surprised if UA actually took delivery of 45 A350-900s between 2022 and 2027. They might order more to fully replace the 777-200 fleet. They might upgauge to A350-1000s, or they might defer or shrink the order. Markets change and UA uses the airplanes it has on order to adjust the current fleet.
I understand the need for some flexibility, but their whole process seems rather disjointed. "Oh look, a good deal on 777W, lets get some. Oh look, cheap 737G, lets get some. A350 or 787, they both look good get 25 of each. We want A3510 instead of A359, just add 10 to the order and Airbus will let us change. We want A359 instead of A3510, just add 10 to the order and Airbus will let us change." I realize that is not what really happened, but it looks like that from an outsiders perspective. As you said, they will keep these planes for 25 years. While short term changes are important, there should be a long term plan in place which shouldn't change drastically every couple years.


I would argue to the contrary, as UA's management and plans changed, UA was able to adjust their aircraft orders. That isn't just disjointed planning, but its adjusting their plans accordingly. If UA doesn't need certain aircraft, why should they keep them on order?
 
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william
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Re: UA changes order for 35 A350-1000s to 45 A350-900s

Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:17 pm

My question is what choice did UA have. We knew when Airbus we re-debuted the A350 to be a more efficient 777 competitor unless Boeing addressed it this would happen. Some airlines actually need the 777 capability and not down grade to a 787. There is a reason the 777 ruled its segment for so long. So UA now has a plane with roughly the same capability but do it 20% more efficient and we wander what UA is doing?

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