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American 767
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:18 pm

Boeing778X wrote:

Agreed completely, it'll be interesting to see what AA does in the months years ahead.

I put question marks next to the 78J for the reasons stated. In an absolute perfect world, I would want this, circa 2025-2030:

788
789
A359
A35K
779

Simple, yet versatile.

Scenario #1 and #4 seem to be the ones most likely.


I would add the 77W to your list because I'm sure it will still be around by then, even if no more of these are ordered. The last 77W won't leave before 2030.

I see the 779 and/or the A35K based out of MIA on routes to major South America business centers such GIG, GRU and EZE, if they decide to buy either, or both.
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350helmi
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:13 pm

Boeing778X wrote:
Agreed completely, it'll be interesting to see what AA does in the months years ahead.

I put question marks next to the 78J for the reasons stated. In an absolute perfect world, I would want this, circa 2025-2030:

788
789
A359
A35K
779

Simple, yet versatile.

Scenario #1 and #4 seem to be the ones most likely.


Agree on those being the most likely, at least for the near term (before 2025). Only when the 77W start to be replaced will the benefits, or drawbacks, of the decision made for the A350 order be realised. If they require near identical size replacement then the A35K will be the optimal choise, and if they need up-gauge the the 779 will be the better plane. And since that fleet won't be really large, commonality with the existing fleet will probably play a significant part in which plane is ordered.

350helmi
 
Sooner787
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:27 pm

I'm sure AA could use a few A359ULR jets to open up new city pairs like MIA- JNB
DFW / ORD - India , MIA-Tokyo DFW-TLV to name a few :)
 
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Boeing778X
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Tue Sep 19, 2017 8:17 pm

350helmi wrote:
Boeing778X wrote:
Agreed completely, it'll be interesting to see what AA does in the months years ahead.

I put question marks next to the 78J for the reasons stated. In an absolute perfect world, I would want this, circa 2025-2030:

788
789
A359
A35K
779

Simple, yet versatile.

Scenario #1 and #4 seem to be the ones most likely.


Agree on those being the most likely, at least for the near term (before 2025). Only when the 77W start to be replaced will the benefits, or drawbacks, of the decision made for the A350 order be realised. If they require near identical size replacement then the A35K will be the optimal choise, and if they need up-gauge the the 779 will be the better plane. And since that fleet won't be really large, commonality with the existing fleet will probably play a significant part in which plane is ordered.

350helmi


Agreed! Regardless, all parties involved win :)

As for the A350......I admit it, she's pretty dam fine in AAs colors :mischievous:

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BlueSky1976
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:05 am

Boeing 777-9 is too big for American. 777-300ER is as big as it'll get for a while.

Then, A350-1000 as a replacement.
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Boeing778X
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:29 am

BlueSky1976 wrote:
Boeing 777-9 is too big for American. 777-300ER is as big as it'll get for a while.

Then, A350-1000 as a replacement.


If AA can successfully operate the 77W, they can conceivably operate the 779, especially if markets grow next decade. So, therefore, it's not "too big."
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itchief
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:43 pm

Sooner787 wrote:
I'm sure AA could use a few A359ULR jets to open up new city pairs like MIA- JNB
DFW / ORD - India , MIA-Tokyo DFW-TLV to name a few :)


You do know that AA has already tried ORD - India with the 777-200ER, no real need for the A359ULR for this route.
 
Sooner787
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 20, 2017 5:28 pm

itchief wrote:
Sooner787 wrote:
I'm sure AA could use a few A359ULR jets to open up new city pairs like MIA- JNB
DFW / ORD - India , MIA-Tokyo DFW-TLV to name a few :)


You do know that AA has already tried ORD - India with the 777-200ER, no real need for the A359ULR for this route.



Okay, how about DFW - DEL ......... that would get the attention of the ME3 serving DFW :)
 
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Boeing778X
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:20 pm

Sooner787 wrote:
itchief wrote:
Sooner787 wrote:
I'm sure AA could use a few A359ULR jets to open up new city pairs like MIA- JNB
DFW / ORD - India , MIA-Tokyo DFW-TLV to name a few :)


You do know that AA has already tried ORD - India with the 777-200ER, no real need for the A359ULR for this route.



Okay, how about DFW - DEL ......... that would get the attention of the ME3 serving DFW :)


Mmm, I can't see the demand for DFW-DEL.

I wonder if it'd work better PHL-DEL. Could that be handled better with a standard A359?
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Boeing778X
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Thu Sep 28, 2017 10:33 pm

AA will try and decide the fate of the A350 order within six months.

The A330-800neo is not popular with AA at this time.

https://leehamnews.com/2017/09/28/ameri ... ix-months/
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ikolkyo
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Thu Sep 28, 2017 10:35 pm

I seriously would not be surprised if the A350 order gets dropped, Boeing seems to be in a really good situation with all the 787 options in hand/commonality and it seems AA is interested in the NMA.
 
SonomaFlyer
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Thu Sep 28, 2017 10:41 pm

They will swap out the 350 for a top up of the 321 or a 339NEO order. The current 359 order doesn't fit AA now and they have a big commitment to the 787 program.
 
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Boeing778X
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Thu Sep 28, 2017 11:20 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
I seriously would not be surprised if the A350 order gets dropped, Boeing seems to be in a really good situation with all the 787 options in hand/commonality and it seems AA is interested in the NMA.


Aviation Week is now reporting on the issue.

http://aviationweek.com/awincommercial/ ... a350-order

Really is big news, and I agree with you completely. With the exception of the A330-200s, 787s and 777s seem to be the way AA is leaning towards, assuming the A350 gets converted or cancelled.

As AA has stated little interest in the A330-800neo, it leaves these conversion possibilities:

Additional A321neos
Adding the A321LR for long and thin routes, and provides an excellent complementary aircraft to the MoM, in which AA is interested in.
Adding the A330-900neo, the likelihood seemingly unknown, seeing as additional 787s seem to cover that sized aircraft. The fact that they would look at additional 787-8s is intriguing.
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jbs2886
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Thu Sep 28, 2017 11:22 pm

Boeing778X wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
I seriously would not be surprised if the A350 order gets dropped, Boeing seems to be in a really good situation with all the 787 options in hand/commonality and it seems AA is interested in the NMA.


Aviation Week is now reporting on the issue.

http://aviationweek.com/awincommercial/ ... a350-order

Really is big news, and I agree with you completely. With the exception of the A330-200s, 787s and 777s seem to be the way AA is leaning towards, assuming the A350 gets converted or cancelled.

As AA has stated little interest in the A330-800neo, it leaves these conversion possibilities:

Additional A321neos
Adding the A321LR for long and thin routes, and provides an excellent complementary aircraft to the MoM, in which AA is interested in.
Adding the A330-900neo, the likelihood seemingly unknown, seeing as additional 787s seem to cover that sized aircraft. The fact that they would look at additional 787-8s is intriguing.


So they are looking at additional 788s? I wonder if Boeing does an update after launching the -10 to make it more similar to the -9 and -10.
 
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Boeing778X
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Thu Sep 28, 2017 11:30 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Boeing778X wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
I seriously would not be surprised if the A350 order gets dropped, Boeing seems to be in a really good situation with all the 787 options in hand/commonality and it seems AA is interested in the NMA.


Aviation Week is now reporting on the issue.

http://aviationweek.com/awincommercial/ ... a350-order

Really is big news, and I agree with you completely. With the exception of the A330-200s, 787s and 777s seem to be the way AA is leaning towards, assuming the A350 gets converted or cancelled.

As AA has stated little interest in the A330-800neo, it leaves these conversion possibilities:

Additional A321neos
Adding the A321LR for long and thin routes, and provides an excellent complementary aircraft to the MoM, in which AA is interested in.
Adding the A330-900neo, the likelihood seemingly unknown, seeing as additional 787s seem to cover that sized aircraft. The fact that they would look at additional 787-8s is intriguing.


So they are looking at additional 788s? I wonder if Boeing does an update after launching the -10 to make it more similar to the -9 and -10.


According to Leeham, Boeing is pitching the 787-8, but considering the number of 787 options, additional -8, -9 and even the 787-10 aren't out of the question for AA at this point.
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American 767
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Fri Sep 29, 2017 12:02 am

It is obvious that American isn't sure they really want the A350. They wouldn't have ordered it had they not merged with US, and they already deferred the order twice already. If they really wanted it, the first one would have been delivered already, or at least in the stages of final assembly by now. Delta has it already (their first one), and they ordered them later than US Airways did. It sounds like converting some of the 787 options to firm order is the most likely choice. It is interesting that they might take additional 8s, as they are taking 9s already.
Last edited by American 767 on Fri Sep 29, 2017 12:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Fri Sep 29, 2017 12:08 am

Boeing778X wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
I seriously would not be surprised if the A350 order gets dropped, Boeing seems to be in a really good situation with all the 787 options in hand/commonality and it seems AA is interested in the NMA.


Aviation Week is now reporting on the issue.

http://aviationweek.com/awincommercial/ ... a350-order

Really is big news, and I agree with you completely. With the exception of the A330-200s, 787s and 777s seem to be the way AA is leaning towards, assuming the A350 gets converted or cancelled.

As AA has stated little interest in the A330-800neo, it leaves these conversion possibilities:

Additional A321neos
Adding the A321LR for long and thin routes, and provides an excellent complementary aircraft to the MoM, in which AA is interested in.
Adding the A330-900neo, the likelihood seemingly unknown, seeing as additional 787s seem to cover that sized aircraft. The fact that they would look at additional 787-8s is intriguing.


I also find it interesting that AA is expressing interest in a potential A321/797/788 lineup. Considering their comments on minimum fleet size, it seems that there is sizable space in that MoM segment between an A321 and even a 788 (unless those are just a bridge to a potential 797), which is always the question that comes up in MoM discussions (ie is it too narrowly boxed in by the A321 below and A330/787 above). Indeed, this could turn into the sort of order Boeing needs to launch the plane.

Also, considering AAs focus on its TATL and LatAm network, I would think the 78X is a shoe in at some point.
 
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Revelation
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Fri Sep 29, 2017 12:23 am

Boeing778X wrote:
AA will try and decide the fate of the A350 order within six months.

The A330-800neo is not popular with AA at this time.

https://leehamnews.com/2017/09/28/ameri ... ix-months/

To me the most interesting part is:

That American has been wrestling with the future of the A350 isn’t new; officials have been open about this. The deadline is new.

It refers back to:

Kerr said a deadline is approaching to decide what to do with the order.

As a friend says, "deadlines spur action", so it sounds like we'll know pretty soon what AA chooses to do.

And given the stated options:

Kerr said the options are to increase the order, swap them for the A330neo, or swap them for more A321neos.

And the apparent lack of interest in A330neo (love to know why..) and its view that 22 A350s is a "small fleet" it seems like more A321neos is what will win by default, unless Airbus really wants to place A350s at AA so badly that they make AA "an offer they cannot refuse".
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Revelation
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Fri Sep 29, 2017 12:24 am

Boeing778X wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
I seriously would not be surprised if the A350 order gets dropped, Boeing seems to be in a really good situation with all the 787 options in hand/commonality and it seems AA is interested in the NMA.


Aviation Week is now reporting on the issue.

http://aviationweek.com/awincommercial/ ... a350-order

Unfortunately it's subscription only. Wonder if you can give us a fair use break down of the info, especially any thing that tells us more about the deadline AA seems to be facing shortly.
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Boeing778X
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Fri Sep 29, 2017 12:47 am

Revelation wrote:
Boeing778X wrote:
AA will try and decide the fate of the A350 order within six months.

The A330-800neo is not popular with AA at this time.

https://leehamnews.com/2017/09/28/ameri ... ix-months/

To me the most interesting part is:

That American has been wrestling with the future of the A350 isn’t new; officials have been open about this. The deadline is new.

It refers back to:

Kerr said a deadline is approaching to decide what to do with the order.

As a friend says, "deadlines spur action", so it sounds like we'll know pretty soon what AA chooses to do.

And given the stated options:

Kerr said the options are to increase the order, swap them for the A330neo, or swap them for more A321neos.

And the apparent lack of interest in A330neo (love to know why..) and its view that 22 A350s is a "small fleet" it seems like more A321neos is what will win by default, unless Airbus really wants to place A350s at AA so badly that they make AA "an offer they cannot refuse".


Personally, I'm sure Airbus would be thrilled to have all US3s operating the A350. They have DL all wrapped up and UA increased their A350 order and converted to the -900, but AA is stubborn.

Even with a heavily pro-Airbus CEO, it seems like management knows taking the A350 is just another loose end. However, Airbus, I'm sure, could benefit from the freed slots, and converting to more A321neos is business for Mobile!
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Boeing778X
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Sat Sep 30, 2017 3:02 pm

My updated opinion.

Upon reading the Leeham article again about the matter, I noticed Parker stated that AA wants to "simplify" the fleet.

That's obviously an antithical statement regarding the A350.

AA has certainly been heading that way, with the removal of the A333, E190 and S80 planned, with the A320, 752 and 763 fleets reducing in numbers.

Considering that Boeing is pitching the 788 and MoM, it seems to me that's how AA could proceed, given the number of 787 options they have and their need for a 757/767 replacement.

Which goes back to the A350 issue. As the worlds largest A321 operator, an option they could go for is the A321LR, to cover the lower end of the MoM bracket.

On the topic of what will replace the 77Es, the likely possibilities are becoming clearer. At this point, I'm betting on additional 789s, and perhaps, just perhaps, the 787-10.

With no A350 order, that makes the possibility of the A35K at AA second to none, which opens the door a little more for the 777X down the road.

Eventually, assuming the A350s are not taken and the 77Es are replaced by 787s, the A332 fleet may be deemed oddball as well, and taken out, seeing as they'd also be the only RR powered widebody in the fleet.

AA fleet circa 2025-29

A319
738/8M7
A321ceo/neo/LR(?)
797
788
789
78J(?)
77W
779(?)

A319, 737 and A321 for short haul, A321LR, 797 and 788 for MoM, 789 and 78J for Asia, Europe and South America, and the 777 for Premium and growing markets.

At this point in time, the NSA might be available, but I let it out for the sake of simplicity.

Looks simple to me.
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BlueSky1976
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Sat Sep 30, 2017 5:03 pm

Just as I predicted, this is turning to another "UA will cancel A350 order" - type thread.

So... American won't cancel it's A350 order. They'll defer it and increase it to cover replacement of their 777-200ERs, with options for the eventual 777-300ER replacement by A350-1000s.

And yes, the 777-9 will turn out too big for American.
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ripcordd
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Sat Sep 30, 2017 5:14 pm

AA Widebody fleet keeping it simple saves $$$ 787-777 btwn the 2 of them and their sub models there is no need for 330 or 350...
 
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Sat Sep 30, 2017 5:31 pm

BlueSky1976 wrote:
Just as I predicted, this is turning to another "UA will cancel A350 order" - type thread.

So... American won't cancel it's A350 order. They'll defer it and increase it to cover replacement of their 777-200ERs, with options for the eventual 777-300ER replacement by A350-1000s.

And yes, the 777-9 will turn out too big for American.

It's not clear that yet another deferral is an option. As per #218 above, AA is facing a deadline and the options are listed. Deferral is not one of the listed options. And members here say that the vendors are getting less flexible with deferrals. It would not surprise me if this is a "put up or shut up" moment for AA.
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Boeing778X
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:36 pm

BlueSky1976 wrote:
Just as I predicted, this is turning to another "UA will cancel A350 order" - type thread.

So... American won't cancel it's A350 order. They'll defer it and increase it to cover replacement of their 777-200ERs, with options for the eventual 777-300ER replacement by A350-1000s.

And yes, the 777-9 will turn out too big for American.


Well, that's nice BlueSky, but AA is not UA and AA didn't order the A350, and if it doesn't fit, it doesn't fit. Explain why they won't cancel it, when there is clearly a better than not chance they'll convert or cancel.

This situation is far different.

And regarding the 777-9...I guess you didn't hear me the first time:

Boeing778X wrote:
If AA can successfully operate the 77W, they can conceivably operate the 779, especially if markets grow next decade. So, therefore, it's not "too big."
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keesje
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Sun Oct 01, 2017 10:43 pm

As said replacing 777-200ERs by 787s is slashing payload-range potential, in growing markets. Ignore that and 787 looks like a fine option. :bigthumbsup:
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Newbiepilot
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Sun Oct 01, 2017 10:53 pm

keesje wrote:
As said replacing 777-200ERs by 787s is slashing payload-range potential, in growing markets. Ignore that and 787 looks like a fine option. ::


As said, AA has already replaced 777-200ERs with 787s on transpacific routes beyond NRT to China/Korea routes over 6000nm. AA is using many 787-8s on those routes to China. There will be virtually no slashing of payload with 787-9s replacing 777-200ERs on the majority of routes that AA uses them on because on transatlantic and South America routes, the 777-200ER is not flying at max takeoff weight.

So yes the 787 looks like a fine option.
 
jfk777
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:21 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
keesje wrote:
As said replacing 777-200ERs by 787s is slashing payload-range potential, in growing markets. Ignore that and 787 looks like a fine option. ::


As said, AA has already replaced 777-200ERs with 787s on transpacific routes beyond NRT to China/Korea routes over 6000nm. AA is using many 787-8s on those routes to China. There will be virtually no slashing of payload with 787-9s replacing 777-200ERs on the majority of routes that AA uses them on because on transatlantic and South America routes, the 777-200ER is not flying at max takeoff weight.

So yes the 787 looks like a fine option.


AA 787-9 have only 30 J class seats while the new Qantas 787-9 from Perth to LHR will have 42 Business Class seats. AA needs to step up its Asian game with more j class seats and more then 21 Premium Economy seats too. The AA 787-9 needs a second seating configuration, those flights from DFW to China are very long as well as the LAX to Sydney, Australia route.
 
jfk777
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:33 am

BlueSky1976 wrote:
Boeing 777-9 is too big for American. 777-300ER is as big as it'll get for a while.

Then, A350-1000 as a replacement.


I have flown three flights to and from Heathrow in the last 18 months including September 12th all in Business Class, they serve AA very well and are a fabulous flagship airplane for AA, Love those Cathay Pacific seats. They are big but I am not convinced they are "too big". These 777-300ER are great for AA for LHR, Hong Kong, Syndey( used to fly there) plus Sao Paulo & Buenos Aires, the next natural plane would be he 777-9. Now what they do need is a premium economy cabin. By the time AA does get their 777-9 they will certainly be flying to a far away city currently NOT flown to. Who is to say Dubai, Melbourne, Capetown or Singapore won't join the AA route system.

However the future AA long haul fleet looks he 787 will be a big part of it, why would adding a Rolls engined A350-900 help the GE powered 777-300ER and 787 fleet ? Adding such complexity adds cost.
 
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keesje
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Mon Oct 02, 2017 1:54 pm

It seems to me that if the 10 abreast 777-300ER is doing fine for AA capacity wise, so will the 777-9, it's only slightly bigger. It's however much heavier & costly too. Not sure how that weighs in. https://i1.wp.com/www.aspireaviation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Screen-Shot-2013-12-31-at-15.08.43.png

It's a different topic & the 77W's are new. Still an airline looks at commonality & future requirements.
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350helmi
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:56 pm

Boeing778X wrote:

A319
738/8M7
A321ceo/neo/LR(?)
797
788
789
78J(?)
77W
779(?)

Looks simple to me.


That is still more compliceted than this:

738
A321
788
789
(78J)
A359
A35K

If they really need the A319 for a certain number of missions it won't make the fleet harder to manage since the pilot pool will be the same with the A321. To me simplifying the fleet means having the fewest number of pilot pools possible to reduce the amount of differing training required to provide, Different engines are a non issue today because of power by the hour deals and maintenance of all the members of one family will be extremely similar if not identical --> the fewest number of aircraft families makes sense, even if sub families will go up.

350helmi
 
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Boeing778X
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:51 pm

350helmi wrote:
Boeing778X wrote:

A319
738/8M7
A321ceo/neo/LR(?)
797
788
789
78J(?)
77W
779(?)

Looks simple to me.


That is still more compliceted than this:

738
A321
788
789
(78J)
A359
A35K

If they really need the A319 for a certain number of missions it won't make the fleet harder to manage since the pilot pool will be the same with the A321. To me simplifying the fleet means having the fewest number of pilot pools possible to reduce the amount of differing training required to provide, Different engines are a non issue today because of power by the hour deals and maintenance of all the members of one family will be extremely similar if not identical --> the fewest number of aircraft families makes sense, even if sub families will go up.

350helmi


The A319 is here to stay. They have been useful for AA and removing them from the fleet creates a sizable gap.

Here's the problem with this lineup, and I agree it's very simple, but consider that AA has not taken the A350, and with the latest news, there's a chance they may never. It may not be worth the cost of acquisition and integration for a new type, especially a type that arguably had its role already filled.

Operating the 777 and 787 is not a bad move. If they want growth, the 787-10 and 777-9 can be added with ease, and additional 787s will make fine 77E replacements.

If AA decides to keep the A350, a scenario like yours probably makes perfect sense. Only If.

It's either

787-8
787-9
787-10(?)
777-300ER
777-9(?)

Or

787-8
787-9
787-10(?)
A350-900
A350-1000(?)

Two subfleets each, both efficient, all types have a role. I'm guessing it all comes down to cost. If AA can be mostly 787 with the 777s working high denisity and premium, I have no doubt that's what AA will do.
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KarelXWB
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Tue Oct 03, 2017 11:09 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
Why introduce another plane type that is not necessary and incur the additional costs of training and maintenance for a relatively small sub-fleet?


Same argument was used at UA. So UA could have easily ordered additional 787s and axed the A350 order, yet it felt the A350 was better suited to replace the 777 fleet and only increased its order.

... it doesn't mean AA will have to follow the same path, though it clearly shows large airlines can introduce several different airplane types.
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:59 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
Why introduce another plane type that is not necessary and incur the additional costs of training and maintenance for a relatively small sub-fleet?


Same argument was used at UA. So UA could have easily ordered additional 787s and axed the A350 order, yet it felt the A350 was better suited to replace the 777 fleet and only increased its order.

... it doesn't mean AA will have to follow the same path, though it clearly shows large airlines can introduce several different airplane types.


I absolutely agree that the additional costs of having an A350 and 787 fleet is not prohibitive.

I also agree that it doesn't mean that AA will follow the same path as UA and others operating both the 787 and A350. As Keesje has pointed out, the A350 excels at 6000nm flights with needing decent capacity/cargo. UA has a higher capacity transpacific network than AA. So while the A350 might make sense for them and DL, it might not match AA's need which has more capacity to Europe and South America and uses the smaller 787s on most of their longer transpcific flights.

Time will tell and I'm sure AA is making an analytical informed decision.
 
fightforlove
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Tue Oct 03, 2017 4:19 pm

Fleet commonality is difficult in these days of Airbus and Boeing refusing to go head-to-head and instead staggering their airplane designs. AA have a fleet of over 900 airplanes, the 789 probably doesn't quite match what AA needs for an eventual 772ER replacement in several markets. My guess is the A359 would be a suitable replacement, but they'd rather kick the ball downfield and keep flying the paid for 772s for some more years.
 
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Tue Oct 03, 2017 11:38 pm

fightforlove wrote:
Fleet commonality is difficult in these days of Airbus and Boeing refusing to go head-to-head and instead staggering their airplane designs. AA have a fleet of over 900 airplanes, the 789 probably doesn't quite match what AA needs for an eventual 772ER replacement in several markets. My guess is the A359 would be a suitable replacement, but they'd rather kick the ball downfield and keep flying the paid for 772s for some more years.


I'm having a hard time thinking of a 77E route the A359 would more or less do better on than the 789, which is currently operating on mostly former 77E routes (i.e. DFW-MAD/ICN/CDG), not to mention it will also be doing LAX-SYD/AKL/GRU and ORD-CDG this fall.

My guess is that the 787-9 does a fine job replacing the 777-200ER by itself with the only downfall being a reduction is payload. Unlike UA or DL, I'm not sure that matters for AA.

The 787-9 may end up being the workhorse of the AA Int'l fleet!
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MD80MKE
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Tue Oct 03, 2017 11:59 pm

Although I'm a big fan of A350 in AA colors, I have to admit that I don't see the necessity of AA buying A350 for their TPAC operations. Compared to UA and DL and China3, AA is a small player capacity wise. Most of the chinese routes coming out of LAX, ORD and DFW are on 787-8 which plays their role fine. I remember AA186 to PEK were 772ER for years before downgauging to 788. It kinda explains what's the right capacity needed for routes like that. For now, IMHO 788 and 789 serve AA perfectly trans-pac.

However, there's one scenerio where A350 coule be needed. After CZ-AA cooperation goes on and AA transfering their slots to T2 at PEK and eventually will be going to the new Daxing airport which will even be larger than PEK. If CZ expand their precense in Beijing significantly and supposedly double their operation at the new airport, PEK route could possibly justify something bigger than a 789 but 77W is not efficient enough and/or not having enough frames to put on Asia routes. Here comes A350. So I would say A350-900 and maybe even -1000 would be great for LAX/ORD/DFW - PEK routes. But this all depends on the CZ-AA's growing and if AA think this capacity increase can justify somehting bigger than 789 and significantly more efficient than 77W.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Oct 04, 2017 12:01 am

Boeing778X wrote:
fightforlove wrote:
Fleet commonality is difficult in these days of Airbus and Boeing refusing to go head-to-head and instead staggering their airplane designs. AA have a fleet of over 900 airplanes, the 789 probably doesn't quite match what AA needs for an eventual 772ER replacement in several markets. My guess is the A359 would be a suitable replacement, but they'd rather kick the ball downfield and keep flying the paid for 772s for some more years.


I'm having a hard time thinking of a 77E route the A359 would more or less do better on than the 789, which is currently operating on mostly former 77E routes (i.e. DFW-MAD/ICN/CDG), not to mention it will also be doing LAX-SYD/AKL/GRU and ORD-CDG this fall.

My guess is that the 787-9 does a fine job replacing the 777-200ER by itself with the only downfall being a reduction is payload. Unlike UA or DL, I'm not sure that matters for AA.

The 787-9 may end up being the workhorse of the AA Int'l fleet!


You mentioned the point what the A350-900 would do better than the 787-9, keeping up capacity and payload.
 
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Oct 04, 2017 12:08 am

mjoelnir wrote:
Boeing778X wrote:
fightforlove wrote:
Fleet commonality is difficult in these days of Airbus and Boeing refusing to go head-to-head and instead staggering their airplane designs. AA have a fleet of over 900 airplanes, the 789 probably doesn't quite match what AA needs for an eventual 772ER replacement in several markets. My guess is the A359 would be a suitable replacement, but they'd rather kick the ball downfield and keep flying the paid for 772s for some more years.


I'm having a hard time thinking of a 77E route the A359 would more or less do better on than the 789, which is currently operating on mostly former 77E routes (i.e. DFW-MAD/ICN/CDG), not to mention it will also be doing LAX-SYD/AKL/GRU and ORD-CDG this fall.

My guess is that the 787-9 does a fine job replacing the 777-200ER by itself with the only downfall being a reduction is payload. Unlike UA or DL, I'm not sure that matters for AA.

The 787-9 may end up being the workhorse of the AA Int'l fleet!


You mentioned the point what the A350-900 would do better than the 787-9, keeping up capacity and payload.


I actually only mentioned payload, not capacity.

Capacity-wise, in their current configurations, the 789 and 77E are on par.
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Oct 04, 2017 2:59 am

KarelXWB wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
Why introduce another plane type that is not necessary and incur the additional costs of training and maintenance for a relatively small sub-fleet?


Same argument was used at UA. So UA could have easily ordered additional 787s and axed the A350 order, yet it felt the A350 was better suited to replace the 777 fleet and only increased its order.

... it doesn't mean AA will have to follow the same path, though it clearly shows large airlines can introduce several different airplane types.



You bring up a valid point....but you can argue that UA has a much stronger presence in the Pacific Basin than AA, and therefore would need the additional capacity of the A350. The same could also be said of DL.

The few flights AA operates from a fortress hub across the Pacific such as DFW-HKG could be ideally replaced by the 359 or 35J, but the 77W's flying those few routes are relatively young frames. This is no knock against the A350 which is a fine bird.....but for AA's flights across the Pacific....particularly from a highly competitive market like LAX...the 788 or 789 probably works best for AA from a capacity point of view.
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American 767
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Oct 04, 2017 12:33 pm

Now here is an interesting question. Imagine if the AA-US merger did not happen. US would have stayed independent with its three main hubs, PHX, CLT and PHL they would have kept their A350 order, and their first A350 would already be delivered by now, if not already their first 2 A350s. On what routes was US thinking of putting the 22 A350s they had on order? What was it that they had in mind?
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Polot
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Oct 04, 2017 12:49 pm

American 767 wrote:
Now here is an interesting question. Imagine if the AA-US merger did not happen. US would have stayed independent with its three main hubs, PHX, CLT and PHL they would have kept their A350 order, and their first A350 would already be delivered by now, if not already their first 2 A350s. On what routes was US thinking of putting the 22 A350s they had on order? What was it that they had in mind?

If US had remained independent they probably would have switched most if not all of the order to the A330neo. US had no need for 22 A359s. Remember that US was an early customer back from the A350 mk1 when the A350 was the same size as the A330, and a majority of their order was for the -800 variant (18 frames iirc). They were one of a handful of customers that really got screwed over when the A350 was up sized to the XWB.

mjoelnir wrote:
You mentioned the point what the A350-900 would do better than the 787-9, keeping up capacity and payload.

Its debatable how much the A359's higher payload potential is needed on many of their 77E flights, most of which are nowhere near the 77E's max potential and can comfortably be operated by 787s with no restrictions what so ever. The issue is if there are enough routes/potential future routes in AA's network that can take advantage of the A350's superior payload/capacity capabilities over the 787 to justify introducing the A350 into the fleet vs just "abusing" 787s.
 
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Oct 04, 2017 12:50 pm

American 767 wrote:
Now here is an interesting question. Imagine if the AA-US merger did not happen. US would have stayed independent with its three main hubs, PHX, CLT and PHL they would have kept their A350 order, and their first A350 would already be delivered by now, if not already their first 2 A350s. On what routes was US thinking of putting the 22 A350s they had on order? What was it that they had in mind?


US Airways was considering China back when the airplane was ordered. In the Mid 2000s when China slots were opening up, it was viewed as a gold mine. Being an all Airbus customer, the A350 was their only choice because an A330 can't make it to China from PHL. Since then things have changed. China yields have been trashed by the capacity dumped by the Chinese airlines. If US Airways remained independent I would have expected them to switch to the A330neo since the A350 is overkill for transatlantic flights and management probably remembers America West's experiment with flying to Japan.
 
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frigatebird
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Oct 04, 2017 1:29 pm

Polot wrote:
American 767 wrote:
Now here is an interesting question. Imagine if the AA-US merger did not happen. US would have stayed independent with its three main hubs, PHX, CLT and PHL they would have kept their A350 order, and their first A350 would already be delivered by now, if not already their first 2 A350s. On what routes was US thinking of putting the 22 A350s they had on order? What was it that they had in mind?

If US had remained independent they probably would have switched most if not all of the order to the A330neo. US had no need for 22 A359s. Remember that US was an early customer back from the A350 mk1 when the A350 was the same size as the A330, and a majority of their order was for the -800 variant (18 frames iirc). They were one of a handful of customers that really got screwed over when the A350 was up sized to the XWB.

And most likely US would have opted largely for the A330-800, the very aircraft Airbus pitched to AA recently...
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Oct 04, 2017 2:10 pm

AA will probably shelve the A350 order and convert it to more A321neos and A321LRs. AA is retiring the 752/763 so fast that they may not get the NMA fast enough. They could replace the remaining 752s with A321LRs and 763s with more 788s, and upgauge some of the 788 routes to 789. AA still flies 738s on a lot of hub-to-hub routes that could be upgauged to the A321.
 
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Oct 04, 2017 3:02 pm

Swadian wrote:
AA will probably shelve the A350 order and convert it to more A321neos and A321LRs. AA is retiring the 752/763 so fast that they may not get the NMA fast enough. They could replace the remaining 752s with A321LRs and 763s with more 788s, and upgauge some of the 788 routes to 789. AA still flies 738s on a lot of hub-to-hub routes that could be upgauged to the A321.


American is already the biggest A321 operator in the world with over 200 in service and 100 on order. I don't know how many more they need. They have enough narrowbodies on order to replace the remaining MD80s and 757s along with older A320s. They could get a subfleet of 24 or so A321LRs, but that's not anywhere near the value of the A350 order.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Oct 04, 2017 3:21 pm

Boeing778X wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
Boeing778X wrote:

I'm having a hard time thinking of a 77E route the A359 would more or less do better on than the 789, which is currently operating on mostly former 77E routes (i.e. DFW-MAD/ICN/CDG), not to mention it will also be doing LAX-SYD/AKL/GRU and ORD-CDG this fall.

My guess is that the 787-9 does a fine job replacing the 777-200ER by itself with the only downfall being a reduction is payload. Unlike UA or DL, I'm not sure that matters for AA.

The 787-9 may end up being the workhorse of the AA Int'l fleet!


You mentioned the point what the A350-900 would do better than the 787-9, keeping up capacity and payload.


I actually only mentioned payload, not capacity.

Capacity-wise, in their current configurations, the 789 and 77E are on par.


The 777-200 has both a wider cabin and is longer than the 787-9.
 
350helmi
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:38 pm

Boeing778X wrote:
350helmi wrote:
Boeing778X wrote:

A319
738/8M7
A321ceo/neo/LR(?)
797
788
789
78J(?)
77W
779(?)

Looks simple to me.


That is still more compliceted than this:

738
A321
788
789
(78J)
A359
A35K

If they really need the A319 for a certain number of missions it won't make the fleet harder to manage since the pilot pool will be the same with the A321. To me simplifying the fleet means having the fewest number of pilot pools possible to reduce the amount of differing training required to provide, Different engines are a non issue today because of power by the hour deals and maintenance of all the members of one family will be extremely similar if not identical --> the fewest number of aircraft families makes sense, even if sub families will go up.

350helmi


The A319 is here to stay. They have been useful for AA and removing them from the fleet creates a sizable gap.

Here's the problem with this lineup, and I agree it's very simple, but consider that AA has not taken the A350, and with the latest news, there's a chance they may never. It may not be worth the cost of acquisition and integration for a new type, especially a type that arguably had its role already filled.

Operating the 777 and 787 is not a bad move. If they want growth, the 787-10 and 777-9 can be added with ease, and additional 787s will make fine 77E replacements.

If AA decides to keep the A350, a scenario like yours probably makes perfect sense. Only If.

It's either

787-8
787-9
787-10(?)
777-300ER
777-9(?)

Or

787-8
787-9
787-10(?)
A350-900
A350-1000(?)

Two subfleets each, both efficient, all types have a role. I'm guessing it all comes down to cost. If AA can be mostly 787 with the 777s working high denisity and premium, I have no doubt that's what AA will do.


I have no doubt the A319 has been useful, or they would have meen axed long ago, but could they not be replaced with 738max with the performance boost option? That's if the performance from runway is the reason they are useful, I'm not sure if it is.

I know the 77W replacement is more than a decade away, but that must play into this as well as those planes can be replaced by the 779 or the A35K, and that will be linked to the 77E replacement. Going 787/777 route will leave the 779 as a small sub fleet later (after 77Ws are gone), and I feel that may not be as efficient/profitable as going 787/A350 route with an option to expand on the medium range flights to the 78J as it is slightly more efficient at those ranges than the A359. Also gives the most amount of flexibility along with efficiency, hence my opinion on which way the A350 decision should go. 78J and A359 for the short and long routes that need the capacity, A35K for premium routes that can support even more capacity and the 788/9 for routes that can be operated more profitably with less capacity/less premium cabin. Each model would have a specific role and most would be interchangable to to all other routes if circumstances required that.
Going the 787/77 route would axe (make less profitable) the medium-large long routes where the A359 would be in the other scenario and still wouldn't save on pilot traning as 787 and 777 pilot rating is similar, but not the same.
We can agree to disagree on which would work best in our opinions. I have my preference for the A350 and you have yours for the 779, nither will be a bad choice however.

As a side note, just had my 1st experience of the A350 and it was superb! Quiet, comfortable and spacious. My best experience by far out of any plane I've flown thus far. Note I'm only commenting on the plane and not the service proivided since that is so different with every carrier.

350helmi
 
350helmi
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:54 pm

Boeing778X wrote:
fightforlove wrote:
Fleet commonality is difficult in these days of Airbus and Boeing refusing to go head-to-head and instead staggering their airplane designs. AA have a fleet of over 900 airplanes, the 789 probably doesn't quite match what AA needs for an eventual 772ER replacement in several markets. My guess is the A359 would be a suitable replacement, but they'd rather kick the ball downfield and keep flying the paid for 772s for some more years.


I'm having a hard time thinking of a 77E route the A359 would more or less do better on than the 789, which is currently operating on mostly former 77E routes (i.e. DFW-MAD/ICN/CDG), not to mention it will also be doing LAX-SYD/AKL/GRU and ORD-CDG this fall.

My guess is that the 787-9 does a fine job replacing the 777-200ER by itself with the only downfall being a reduction is payload. Unlike UA or DL, I'm not sure that matters for AA.

The 787-9 may end up being the workhorse of the AA Int'l fleet!


Are there any routes over 5000-5500Nm that are 77E or 789 at the moment? If there are, those are the routes that would be better served by the A359, even if there was no cargo at all since the trip fuel burn would be lower for the A359. With cargo the advantage would start from a shorter range. Those routes would be served better even if the excess capacity wasn't needed.
If the cargo hold was full, I imagine the A359 to start to be the more efficient solution from around 4000Nm, possibly a little lower.

And so far the 787 has been replacing 767 since those have been the ones to leave the fleet. How and what routes they fly them on doen't make a difference since they will find the most economical way of running the fleet and that usually means having the paid off planes flying the shorter routes where efficiency isn't as important.

350helmi
 
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Boeing778X
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:47 am

mjoelnir wrote:
Boeing778X wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

You mentioned the point what the A350-900 would do better than the 787-9, keeping up capacity and payload.


I actually only mentioned payload, not capacity.

Capacity-wise, in their current configurations, the 789 and 77E are on par.


The 777-200 has both a wider cabin and is longer than the 787-9.


Point being?

777-200ER (with the new Premium Economy layout): 273 seats (260 and 289 seat versions are still active)
787-9 (which has Premium Economy right out of the box): 285 seats

Seems to me, capacity wise, the 787-9 is sufficient to swap a 777-200ER.
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