planemanofnz
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SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:22 pm

Hello all,

With the Southwest of North America now covered from SIN by UA and SQ opening up SIN - SFO and SIN - LAX, I wonder if there is an untapped opportunity for an airline to link SIN with the Northwest of North America?

IMO, SIN - SEA (on either SQ or DL) would be a strong candidate, for two reasons:

1. The potential O&D traffic would be high-yielding, with a number of commercial relationships between the cities:
- Microsoft is headquartered in Seattle, but has its APAC headquarters in Singapore - it has nearly 1,000 employees in the city, and operates in 39 countries through Singapore.
- Amazon is also headquartered in Seattle, with its first foray into Southeast Asia through Singapore earlier this year - it recently opened a "Prime Now" facility in Singapore.
- Boeing has significant operations around Seattle, and many of its customers - aircraft leasing firms - have regional bases in Singapore (e.g. SMBC Aviation Capital and BOC Aviation).
- Seattle is a global hub for health (think the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, PATH etc.), while Singapore is a global hub for pharma (think Pfizer, Roche etc.)

2. Connecting traffic would also be strong:
- SQ: Just a few weeks ago, SQ and AS (who are based at SEA) announced an extensive codeshare and loyalty program partnership. We all know that SQ has a frosty relationship with Star Alliance partner UA, so SQ would likely be happy to top-up any leftover seats from O&D traffic with AS connections.
- DL: DL is dominant at SEA, and would offer significant North American connections. On the Asian side, the KE-DL JV will be particularly good for Northeast Asia, but for Southeast Asia, it might be more convenient to make use of fellow SkyTeam partners GA and VN (particularly the former) through SIN.

I expect that both SQ and DL would use A350 equipment, should they start SIN - SEA.

SIN - YVR is an alternative option (on SQ or AC). This flight would benefit from Star Alliance hubs on both ends. Although SQ tried YVR before, that was through a less competitive one-stop flight, on a less fuel-efficient aircraft. Meanwhile, AC are expanding their APAC offering from YVR (e.g. BNE and MEL).

However, YVR - Asia is more competitive than SEA - Asia at this stage.

I look forward to hearing your thoughts,

C.
Last edited by planemanofnz on Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Dominion301
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Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:29 pm

SQ will never be back in Canada unless the bilateral is expanded to allow them to operate daily flights.
 
717atOGG
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Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:35 pm

You make some valid points about SEA, but I doubt the market has grown enough to support it. Maybe in the next 5-10 years SEA could get it on a A359 on DL or SQ, but for now there's markets that are lower-risk and have more potential, in my opinion.
Long live the Boeing 757!
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:40 pm

I am somewhat surprised to see that DL hasn't launched SEA-SIN. It's the same distance as EWR-HKG, so theoretically a 777-200ER can do it if Delta doesn't have spare 777-200LR capacity.
 
chrisa330
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Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:48 pm

    Dominion301 wrote:
    SQ will never be back in Canada unless the bilateral is expanded to allow them to operate daily flights.


    There are no frequency or capacity restrictions on non-stop flights between Singapore and any point in Canada.

    The restrictions come on routings with intermediate stops where local traffic can be carried.
     
    theSFOspotter
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    Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

    Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:58 pm

    Newbiepilot wrote:
    I am somewhat surprised to see that DL hasn't launched SEA-SIN. It's the same distance as EWR-HKG, so theoretically a 777-200ER can do it if Delta doesn't have spare 777-200LR capacity.


    the 200ER would probably be better. the 77L operationally make take a toll cost wise if they cant get good yields at LF
    Q-400 A319 A320 B737-300/400/700/800/900ER B757-200/300 B787-8
     
    MIflyer12
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    Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

    Mon Sep 25, 2017 2:29 pm

    I appreciate the effort that the OP made into making a reasoned argument, instead of 'Why isn't there a flight xxx-yyy?'

    I don't think 1,000 Microsoft employees in SIN is a very compelling element for O&D. How many trips SEA-SIN does that generate, either SIN-based employees to SEA or vice versa? Do you think they might try Skype when they want to see a face? :)

    I don't get the sense that DL is overwhelmingly eager to fill in holes in the Asia route map with its own metal. DL has the aircraft - 77Ls and A350s among others - to operate lots of TPAC stuff from SEA or LAX but doesn't: TPE, MNL, BKK, SIN, CGK, NGO, KIX...
     
    Dominion301
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    Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

    Mon Sep 25, 2017 2:33 pm

    chrisa330 wrote:
      Dominion301 wrote:
      SQ will never be back in Canada unless the bilateral is expanded to allow them to operate daily flights.


      There are no frequency or capacity restrictions on non-stop flights between Singapore and any point in Canada.

      The restrictions come on routings with intermediate stops where local traffic can be carried.


      Yeah I should have clarified to say daily 5th freedom rights. Something like 75% of YVR-ICN-SIN traffic got off in ICN. There is no way there is enough traffic to SIN from anywhere in Canada to operate to SIN nonstop.
       
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      Coal
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      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Mon Sep 25, 2017 2:46 pm

      planemanofnz wrote:
      1. The potential O&D traffic would be high-yielding, with a number of commercial relationships between the cities:
      - Microsoft is headquartered in Seattle, but has its APAC headquarters in Singapore - it has nearly 1,000 employees in the city, and operates in 39 countries through Singapore.
      - Amazon is also headquartered in Seattle, with its first foray into Southeast Asia through Singapore earlier this year - it recently opened a "Prime Now" facility in Singapore.
      - Boeing has significant operations around Seattle, and many of its customers - aircraft leasing firms - have regional bases in Singapore (e.g. SMBC Aviation Capital and BOC Aviation).
      - Seattle is a global hub for health (think the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, PATH etc.), while Singapore is a global hub for pharma (think Pfizer, Roche etc.)

      Don't forget Expedia, they also have their APAC HQ in Singapore.

      planemanofnz wrote:
      2. Connecting traffic would also be strong:
      - SQ: Just a few weeks ago, SQ and AS (who are based at SEA) announced an extensive codeshare and loyalty program partnership. We all know that SQ has a frosty relationship with Star Alliance partner UA, so SQ would likely be happy to top-up any leftover seats from O&D traffic with AS connections.
      - DL: DL is dominant at SEA, and would offer significant North American connections. On the Asian side, the KE-DL JV will be particularly good for Northeast Asia, but for Southeast Asia, it might be more convenient to make use of fellow SkyTeam partners GA and VN (particularly the former) through SIN.

      I think the connecting opportunities on GA and VN are limited. GA could connect to CGK, SUB, and DPS. VN could connect to SGN and HAN, but then again why would you backtrack?

      I'd love to see a n/s flight to SEA though.
      Nxt Flts: KE SIN-ICN-ATL | DL ATL-FLL | AA MIA-ATL | KE ATL-ICN-SIN
       
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      LAXintl
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      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:01 pm

      Based on O&D, SEA is not exactly a top SIN traffic generator. Cities like Boston, Chicago, DC, Dallas, etc generate more local demand.

      Also there are multiple other larger Asia-Pac O&D markets from SEA which DL has yet to launch nonstop, so not sure a distant SIN exactly at top of the list.
      From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
       
      airtropolis
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      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:42 pm

      Yes, I do feel there is a rationale for both SIN-YVR and SIN-SEA
      1) SIN-YVR will be an opportunity for SQ to tap into the India - YVR route which the ME3 have not been able to tap due to traffic restrictions- SQ essentially has unlimited rights to Canada provided flights are non-stop not to mention there are numerous connections from SIN to various points in India especially South India, not to mention Sri Lanka and Bangladesh as well.
      2) SIN-SEA should have some O&D though this will be minor, of greater potential is AS' vast network from SEA and the ability to connect from various points in the US, more so than either through SFO and LA currently- bear in mind that no everyone is headed to the main cities. Again here Indian connections may bulk up the route if frequencies are adequate.
      The only questionable aspect would be the profitability of such ULH flights. Having said that, United seems successful in introducing such flights recently which seems to vouch for their viability at least with regards to United
       
      SonaSounds
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      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Mon Sep 25, 2017 4:14 pm

      SEA-SIN PDEWs come in at a whopping 35.....37 if you take the entire state of Washington (SFO-265 PDEWs/LAX-107). Seattle is still a far cry from being a major Asian hub like SFO/LAX as the states entire population is only 60% of that of SFO's encatchment area and about 45% of LAX's besides the fact that it does not have as many Asians as either of those markets. While it is along the great circle route, foreign flag carriers want to cut their risk as much as possible by having a strong O&D market and not rely completely on connecting traffic. SFO has about 3x the Asia flights as SEA and LAX comes in around 4x. SEA is served very healthily for its market size. Might see a little bit more growth there, but I think its Asia traffic is pretty saturated at this point.
       
      SeaDoo
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      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Mon Sep 25, 2017 4:45 pm

      I don't see it happening anytime soon. With the PDEW of 37 for the whole state, you are roughly only filling up 1/9 of a DL A350 and 1/7 of a SQ A350. This would be one of the world's longest flights. Considering DL is the only airline flying SEA-HKG, and that isn't even daily year round, why would a flight that is over 1500 miles further with less traffic be successful?
       
      usflyer msp
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      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Mon Sep 25, 2017 4:52 pm

      DL will eventually launch SEA-SIN. The NRT hub is dead and SIN is an important enough business market for DL to want to maintain service with its own metal. It probably will not be daily but 4-5 weekly should be enough for DL to maintain its presence in the market. On the plus side, SIN-SEA non-stop should also have much better timings than the crappy 1230 AM arrival and 530 AM departure DL currently maintains for NRT connections.
       
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      TransWorldOne
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      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Mon Sep 25, 2017 5:26 pm

      SEA-SIN is a very long and very thin route. Once SIN is dropped from NRT, which I expect will happen sooner than later, DL will continue to serve via ICN on JV partner Korean Air. I don't expect that we'll see DL metal in SIN two years from now. I would love to be wrong, but DL shy's away from ULH routes unless there is a massive hub on one end and SEA is certainly not that.
       
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      mercure1
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      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Mon Sep 25, 2017 5:33 pm

      One issue for DL with a SEA-SIN nonstop route to remember is that they will be virtually all dependent on gather connections from across the US to make it work as SEA certainly cant fill the plane itself.

      Doing this they will compete against the multitude of 1-stop carrier options such as UA and SQ nonstop via US gateways, but also all the other Asian carriers that can connect US cities via their home hubs to SIN.

      Also for DL, they have really zero strength on SIN either, unlike UA which even with marginal relations with SQ and still make use of Star frequent flyer base, and beyond connections via SIA group carriers.
      mercure f-wtcc
       
      tphuang
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      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Mon Sep 25, 2017 5:48 pm

      Seattle, not going to work.

      Vancouver, better odds but traffic to Hong Kong and mainland are much greater. Also not much business traffic to Singapore.
       
      drgmobile
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      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Mon Sep 25, 2017 6:00 pm

      I have the feeling there will be some air service developments between Southeast Asia and Canada in the next couple of years. Air Canada is on a big expansion drive and it has gotten to the stage where the carrier is moving beyond it's traditional markets. As always, if a route is developed it won't be because of a compelling case for local traffic on a route like YVR/SIN but rather whether there is sufficient market potential within the regions on both sides. In order words, it's not just about Singapore, but also about connecting folks through to Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and Cambodia. Most travellers between Canada and the region are connecting via East Asia as there isn't much, if anything, of direct service. Similarly, a Canadian route would also be about connecting opportunities from the U.S. Pacific Northwest and the rest of Canada.
       
      flyguy84
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      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Mon Sep 25, 2017 6:33 pm

      There really is no market for SEA-SIN
      SFO
       
      airzona11
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      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Mon Sep 25, 2017 7:03 pm

      I dont think having a hub on either end really helps these ULHs. Connecting traffic is well served. The O/D is what the nonstops are going after. So many 1-stop options from SEA/YVR. With departures across times of day.
       
      NichCage
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      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:10 pm

      SEA has service to NRT, ICN, PEK, PVG in North America. How does HKG perform for DL?

      I don't think SIN will be launched, from YVR or SEA. The market seems way too small.
       
      727200
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      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:19 pm

      37 PEDW a day out of SEA? Close this thread, not even worth discussing.
       
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      TransWorldOne
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      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:19 pm

      NichCage wrote:
      SEA has service to NRT, ICN, PEK, PVG in North America. How does HKG perform for DL?

      I don't think SIN will be launched, from YVR or SEA. The market seems way too small.


      SEA-HKG doesn't operate daily much of the year so it can't be doing spectacular. DL sporadically operates the route with a 777 but it has mostly been operated with the much smaller A332 which often takes a payload hit. If I were to guess, I'd say this route loses money. But perhaps it just needs more time to mature. As for SEA-SIN, DL will not launch this route. As I stated earlier, far too long and far too thin. DL will send SIN bound customers to ICN and on to Changi with KE once NRT-SIN goes away.
       
      planemanofnz
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      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Tue Sep 26, 2017 2:32 am

      Hello all,

      Thank you for your replies to date on this topic - it has been interesting to read them all.

      MIflyer12 wrote:
      I don't think 1,000 Microsoft employees in SIN is a very compelling element for O&D. How many trips SEA-SIN does that generate, either SIN-based employees to SEA or vice versa? Do you think they might try Skype when they want to see a face? :)

      Microsoft is just one example, but seeing as you cited it, let us look at the bigger picture:

      - Microsoft operates in 39 countries through Singapore, directly employing 13,500 people in the region
      - Microsoft has indirectly created 80,000 jobs in Singapore, and 1 million jobs in ASEAN, through the "Microsoft ecosystem"
      - Microsoft operates significant infrastructure in Singapore, through its "Microsoft Innovation Centres"
      - Southeast Asia is one of the fastest growing regions globally, with certain Microsoft products seeing triple digit growth there

      This is only one company - do not forget Addiction Foods, Amazon, Boeing, Expedia and various others (for example, in health and pharma) that have dual Singapore - Seattle activities.

      You asked how many trips this activity currently generates, but do not forget about the growth potential. Tech companies are known to support the development of routes of interest to them by purchasing a minimum number of premium seats per flight (look at the background to Aer Lingus' Dublin - San Francisco route on Google, linking Silicon Valley with Silicon Docks). These tech companies do not care if some pre-purchased seats are unused - they want the convenience of a non-stop route, and they certainly have the money for this. While the market develops, cargo can also support these services (think expensive and sensitive tech-related products going between innovation centres), as can connections (see my discussion on Alaska Airlines below).

      See:
      - https://www.edb.gov.sg/content/dam/edb/ ... rosoft.pdf
      - http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/a ... experience
      - http://www.datacenterdynamics.com/conte ... ullarticle

      MIflyer12 wrote:
      I don't get the sense that DL is overwhelmingly eager to fill in holes in the Asia route map with its own metal. DL has the aircraft - 77Ls and A350s among others - to operate lots of TPAC stuff from SEA or LAX but doesn't: TPE, MNL, BKK, SIN, CGK, NGO, KIX...

      You simply cannot put Singapore in the same basket as these cited cities.

      Singapore is the world's third or fourth global financial centre, with yields more comparable to Hong Kong, London and New York, than to Bangkok, Manila and Taipei.

      See:
      - https://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/08/singapo ... -kong.html

      SonaSounds wrote:
      SEA-SIN PDEWs come in at a whopping 35

      727200 wrote:
      37 PEDW a day out of SEA? Close this thread, not even worth discussing.

      This is quite naive, for two reasons:

      1. Yield - It is about the quality of the traffic, not necessarily the quantity. This is particularly so for a premium-focused airline, like Singapore Airlines. Look at the huge PDEW figures for Manchester - Bangkok, yet you do not see British Airways, Thai Airways or Virgin Atlantic rushing to get in on the action, as yields would likely be terrible (it is all holiday-related traffic). As I said above, large multinationals might be willing to pay for empty seats on this flight, as they do on Aer Lingus' Dublin - San Francisco route, in exchange for the convenience of a non-stop flight.

      2. Growth potential - If airlines solely focused on existing traffic and not on the scope for new traffic to be generated by their services, then they simply would run out of areas to expand to. One example in aviation is Philippine Airlines which will soon expand their one-stop A320 Manila - Auckland service (only announced in 2015) to a non-stop A340 service (from later this year). Their initial service has helped to stimulate the market and PDEWs. I see particular scope for growth in health and pharma-related traffic between Singapore and Seattle, with any new direct flight.

      Finally, any PDEW deficiency for this route could be offset by connecting traffic (see my response on this below).

      airzona11 wrote:
      I dont think having a hub on either end really helps these ULHs. Connecting traffic is well served. The O/D is what the nonstops are going after.

      Many ULH routes rely on significant connecting traffic, rather than O&D traffic - look at Qantas' Sydney - Dallas route, or Emirates' Auckland - Dubai route (both A380s). In this respect, Singapore Airlines' new tie-up with Alaska Airlines a few weeks ago is hugely significant - it gives a Singapore - Seattle service on Singapore Airlines far more viability than was the case previously.

      See:
      - https://newsroom.alaskaair.com/2017-08- ... experience

      Cheers,

      C.
       
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      CarlosSi
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      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Tue Sep 26, 2017 3:16 am

      I don't have much to contribute to this thread, but that sure does sound like a great argument... and counter-argument at it too!

      Perhaps if it flew even just 3 to 4x weekly? I'm not sure if low frequency is good for long-haul business travel or what type of frequency must be maintained.
       
      planemanofnz
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      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Tue Sep 26, 2017 3:05 pm

      Most people seem to have written off SEA - SIN then, despite my most recent post above?

      I wonder what people think about YVR - SIN instead. As noted above, the opportunity on offer is different now to that when SQ previously flew to YVR via ICN - a non-stop flight is now possible using a more fuel-efficient A350 (or a 787, on AC), with such a flight not facing the same capacity restrictions under the bilateral as the one-stop flight did.

      Aside from YVR being well placed for U.S. connecting traffic, with an international - international transit offering, does YVR also have more O&D traffic to SIN than SEA? I cannot seem to find a significant amount of commercial relationships between Singapore and Vancouver, as I can between Singapore and Seattle.

      Finally, AC opening YVR - SIN would be consistent with its recent strategy of building up APAC ULH 787 flights from YVR, such as YVR - BNE and YVR - MEL, with the added advantage of a Star Alliance hub on the other end (something both BNE and MEL do not have). Is the relationship between SQ and AC better than that between SQ and UA?

      Cheers,

      C.
       
      727200
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      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Tue Sep 26, 2017 6:00 pm

      You do realize that on a 225 seat plane you would need an additional 188 connection passengers? And you are assuming that the 37 from local business would be high yield, when reality is that as a corporate contract depending on how its written, they can pay for Y and sit in C? This is nothing more than more DL fanboys fantasy and NOT going to happen. Close the thread.
       
      nname
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      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Tue Sep 26, 2017 6:36 pm

      AC is still considering YVR-SIN and/or BKK with 789 according to this article:
      https://www.biv.com/article/2017/8/air- ... ontinents/
       
      SonaSounds
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      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Tue Sep 26, 2017 8:11 pm

      I do route development for a living. I work with traffic data all day long. The argument that the yield from 37 travelers can make the flight cost effective shows the naivety of the OP on this subject. With no partner for SQ or DL on either end and the fact the SIN is out of the way for most connecting flights in Asia means this route is not happening anytime in the next 5 years. YVR has a much better chance given the Star partners on either end, but even that is a stretch for now. Airports like SEA have long haul routes with over 100 PDEWs that they do not have nonstop service to that are lower hanging fruit for airlines to go after. When SEA has 100 PDEWs to SIN, then you can start pushing that flight, until then it is just a pipe dream.
       
      planemanofnz
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      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Tue Sep 26, 2017 10:21 pm

      727200 wrote:
      This is nothing more than more DL fanboys fantasy and NOT going to happen. Close the thread.

      Please read all of my posts.

      The thread is as much about SIN - YVR as it is about SIN - SEA, so before you get aggressive and demand closure of it, at least contribute something to the discussion of SIN - YVR.

      727200 wrote:
      You do realize that on a 225 seat plane you would need an additional 188 connection passengers? And you are assuming that the 37 from local business would be high yield, when reality is that as a corporate contract depending on how its written, they can pay for Y and sit in C?

      Again, please read all of my posts.

      Yes, I realize the need for connecting traffic, which is why I cited:

      1. SQ's new partnership with AS (who have their main base at SEA), signed only a few weeks ago.

      2. Precedent ULH routes (on A380s) that probably have less PDEWs than SEA - SIN, like QF's DFW - SYD and EK's DXB - AKL (relying almost exclusively on connections).

      SonaSounds wrote:
      The argument that the yield from 37 travelers can make the flight cost effective shows the naivety of the OP on this subject. With no partner for SQ or DL on either end and the fact the SIN is out of the way for most connecting flights in Asia means this route is not happening anytime in the next 5 years.

      Likewise, please go back and read all of my posts.

      I said that in addition to the 37 PDEWs, there are cargo and connecting traffic opportunities, as well as growth potential from a base of 37 PDEWs.

      You are incorrect about there being no partner for SQ on the SEA end - look up the extensive SQ-AS tie-up, which was signed only a few weeks ago.

      Cheers,

      C.
       
      CHI2DFW
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      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Wed Sep 27, 2017 2:17 am

      727200 wrote:
      37 PEDW a day out of SEA? Close this thread, not even worth discussing.


      The SEA fanboys are taking a page from DTW and now PDX as airports entitled to flights from any airport that can reach the entitled airport.

      It’s getting old and silly.

      Tomorrow we’ll see why SEA-AKL/BKK/BNE/CGK/FNJ/IKA/KUL/MEL/MLE/MNL/PHK/SYD are gold. Then soon after that the DTW and PDX trolls will take exception and blame DL for this!
       
      planemanofnz
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      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Wed Sep 27, 2017 2:33 am

      CHI2DFW wrote:
      727200 wrote:
      37 PEDW a day out of SEA? Close this thread, not even worth discussing.


      The SEA fanboys are taking a page from DTW and now PDX as airports entitled to flights from any airport that can reach the entitled airport.

      It’s getting old and silly.

      Tomorrow we’ll see why SEA-AKL/BKK/BNE/CGK/FNJ/IKA/KUL/MEL/MLE/MNL/PHK/SYD are gold. Then soon after that the DTW and PDX trolls will take exception and blame DL for this!

      I have been on this site since 2005, and this week has been my first time to discuss the SEA market - I am far from a "SEA fanboy" or a "troll." I live in New Zealand, and have never even visited North America - I have no vested interest in SEA whatsoever!

      I also re-emphasize that this thread is as much about YVR as it is about SEA, despite suggestions to the contrary.

      We should treat each other with respect, instead of name-calling.

      Cheers,

      C.
       
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      VCEflyboy
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      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Wed Sep 27, 2017 2:36 am

      In the case of YVR Chinese airlines are dumping to lots of Asian destinations including Singapore and India. And it's not only MU or AC but also CZ, Xiamen, Sichuan... CX has taken a hit, and so have China airlines and Eva. I don't think airlines are lining up to fly ultra long flights that are notoriously uneconomical without premium yields.
       
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      LAX772LR
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      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Wed Sep 27, 2017 4:33 am

      TransWorldOne wrote:
      SEA-HKG doesn't operate daily much of the year so it can't be doing spectacular.

      Why do people constantly make that assumption? It's fallacious.

      Airlines will always care more about yield management in the face of opportunity cost, than simply operating a flight on an arbitrary number of days.
      I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
       
      User avatar
      huaiwei
      Posts: 351
      Joined: Fri Oct 03, 2008 4:36 am

      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Wed Sep 27, 2017 5:00 am

      Why an honest question on market viability attracts personal attacks against the OP is beyond me. Please take your domestic inter-city squabbles elsewhere.

      I have long maintained that SQ wants to fly to Canada to strengthen their overall network, but the protectionist behaviors of the Canadian government under pressure from AC means Canada do not deserve SQ service. Some Canadians contend that SQ is just using the Canadian government as a face-saving way to exit a loss-making route. I would strongly dispute that, for if the airline is able to pull the plug on their very well publicised ULHs to the US previously, why would they need to do any face-saving here on a marginal route?

      And to all the people dismissing the OP's ideas based on nothing but numbers and assumptions, did you guys predict SQ's launch into IAH back then, a route which miraculously even outlasted the ULHs even if it was reconfigured?

      SQ has made it clear that they will go back into North America more aggressively as the economy improves and they obtain more fuel-efficient aircraft, starting from the relaunch of the two ULU routes. They made it pretty clear they won't stop at two. Also, look at how SQ responded when UA suddenly launched SFO-SIN non-stop, despite everyone here thinking SQ is contended with just LAX? They are clearly going to watch AC, another *A "partner-competitor" ala UA. I will not be surprised if SQ launches either SEA or YVR, and even YYZ after LAX, SFO and NYC are established. YYZ is what SQ will do to send a message to the Canadian government that they are serious about growing the market, and to tell AC that they mean business this time to capture a larger market share and protect its turf.

      Ultimately, these routes are still dependent on SQ's overall fortunes across its network however. The ME3 has forced SQ to look beyond its Kangaroo route cash cow, so the only viable alternatives which the ME3 cannot compete as effectively are the intra-Asian and Southeast Asian-North American routes. When SQ is able to stabalise its intra-Asian routes, for example, they will be even more likely to gamble with the North American market.
      It's huaiwei...not huawei. I have nothing to do with the PRC! :)
       
      User avatar
      TransWorldOne
      Posts: 300
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      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Wed Sep 27, 2017 8:57 am

      LAX772LR wrote:
      TransWorldOne wrote:
      SEA-HKG doesn't operate daily much of the year so it can't be doing spectacular.

      Why do people constantly make that assumption? It's fallacious.

      Airlines will always care more about yield management in the face of opportunity cost, than simply operating a flight on an arbitrary number of days.


      Do you care to elaborate? I'm not an expert on the issue but common sense would suggest that if the flight was a gold mine and demand was off the charts, it would operate on a daily basis with a large aircraft, no? Reducing frequency, to me, suggests a slump in demand. SEA-HKG isn't exactly a leisure-heavy route like, say, SEA-CUN or SEA-FLL where the vast majority of traffic is on specific days of the week (i.e. Saturdays). I assume DL aims to capture high-yielding business traffic on SEA-HKG and I was under the impression that daily service/multiple frequencies are important to that high yielding business customer. Again, I'm no expert on the issue but I can't imagine that DL wouldn't want a daily flight to an important business hub like HKG if the demand was there.
       
      simpv
      Posts: 163
      Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2016 12:19 pm

      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:15 am

      I think that YVR-SIN would be more likely on AC metal. Transferring via the US from Canada is an additional hurdle, and AC has built up a nice hub at YVR that can effectively capture the Canadian market. If AC can leverage SQ's connections in Southeast Asia, notably Indonesia, then I could see that working before SEA. However, as others have pointed out, there is a flood of Chinese capacity to both YVR and SEA that capture the price-conscious flier. It would also have to be in the interest of AC (I'm not sure of the status, but I know the UA/NH JV wants to expand to include AC), and that could siphon off a significant number of premium travelers.

      SEA doesn't have the PDEW to warrant a direct flight from DL. Their expanding partnership with KE will incentivize DL to funnel passengers through ICN, and the 37 passengers from SEA will simply have to connect for the time being.
       
      SonaSounds
      Posts: 248
      Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2017 7:16 pm

      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Wed Sep 27, 2017 5:47 pm

      planemanofnz wrote:

      Yes, I realize the need for connecting traffic, which is why I cited:

      1. SQ's new partnership with AS (who have their main base at SEA), signed only a few weeks ago.

      2. Precedent ULH routes (on A380s) that probably have less PDEWs than SEA - SIN, like QF's DFW - SYD and EK's DXB - AKL (relying almost exclusively on connections).

      SonaSounds wrote:
      The argument that the yield from 37 travelers can make the flight cost effective shows the naivety of the OP on this subject. With no partner for SQ or DL on either end and the fact the SIN is out of the way for most connecting flights in Asia means this route is not happening anytime in the next 5 years.

      Likewise, please go back and read all of my posts.

      I said that in addition to the 37 PDEWs, there are cargo and connecting traffic opportunities, as well as growth potential from a base of 37 PDEWs.

      You are incorrect about there being no partner for SQ on the SEA end - look up the extensive SQ-AS tie-up, which was signed only a few weeks ago.

      Cheers,

      C.



      Again, it is 37 PDEWs on a plane that holds 300ish on the low end. Singapore is a strong O&D market because it is remote from the USA and makes no logical sense to use as a connecting point as for North America flights almost everything is a back hall. On the USA side, you have 2 nonstops from SFO plus a one-stop, and you have 1 nonstop from LAX plus a one-stop. Both these markets have 4x-8x the PDEW traffic. Yes connections fill up planes and the EK example is very poor as their model is completely different than any other USA carrier. QF from DFW has about 60 PDEWs from local to SYD, but again, they are connecting the entire east coast to the entirety of Australia via that link. Two huge feeder markets on either end. SEA-SIN only has it on one end.

      The entire country of Canada has a whopping 18 PDEWs to Singapore......18. You will not see YVR have a nonstop flight there anytime soon.

      No matter how much you wish for traffic there, if there is no traffic it is not worth the airlines time. There are dozens of other routes for them to consider that are much more profitable. Airliner always throws around "yield" now on every post, but most people don't really know what they are saying. Yield plays major importance on highly competitive routes like SFO-LAX, JFK-LHR, etc. Airlines are not going to start unserved routes on unserved city pairs and sell tickets that are not making the flight money. They won't even operate the flight unless they can fill up the front, back, and belly of the plane. Seattle/YVR are just too small of markets for SIN and with numerous one-stop options in Asia and the USA already, it is not really worth the airlines time. JFK, ORD, IAH, and IAD all have way more PDEWs to SIN than SEA. You are much more likely to see a few of those markets start first before you see a pacific northwest nonstop SIN flight.

      The risk is very high for an airline to start a route based almost entirely off connecting traffic, especially when there are multiple one-stop options already offered. I does not appear that SEA is a "juicy" enough route for SIN to take that risk when they have so many better cities to put their frames
       
      clrd4t8koff
      Posts: 1402
      Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2005 3:57 am

      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Wed Sep 27, 2017 6:14 pm

      LAXintl wrote:
      Based on O&D, SEA is not exactly a top SIN traffic generator. Cities like Boston, Chicago, DC, Dallas, etc generate more local demand.

      Also there are multiple other larger Asia-Pac O&D markets from SEA which DL has yet to launch nonstop, so not sure a distant SIN exactly at top of the list.


      This!

      I'm so annoyed with all these "When will CX start SEA, Is SEA an untapped market to SIN, when will DL announce SEA-TPE."

      SEA is overserved as it is to Asia! SEA should enjoy the service it has and let it mature instead of rushing more carriers to an overserved market.
       
      User avatar
      TransWorldOne
      Posts: 300
      Joined: Sun May 14, 2017 12:13 am

      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Wed Sep 27, 2017 6:31 pm

      clrd4t8koff wrote:
      LAXintl wrote:
      Based on O&D, SEA is not exactly a top SIN traffic generator. Cities like Boston, Chicago, DC, Dallas, etc generate more local demand.

      Also there are multiple other larger Asia-Pac O&D markets from SEA which DL has yet to launch nonstop, so not sure a distant SIN exactly at top of the list.


      This!

      I'm so annoyed with all these "When will CX start SEA, Is SEA an untapped market to SIN, when will DL announce SEA-TPE."

      SEA is overserved as it is to Asia! SEA should enjoy the service it has and let it mature instead of rushing more carriers to an overserved market.


      I largely agree with you here, although I think TPE is is a glaring hole in DL's Asia Pacific network. I think SEA-TPE would round out DL's Asia route map quite nicely. As for SIN, MNL, BKK, etc., these route will likely not be flown nonstop from SEA in our lifetimes. Far too long and far too thin. It's important to remember that, although affluent, Seattle is still a relatively small market when you compare it to places like SFO, LAX, BOS, ORD, NYC. I think Seattle is more than adequately served across both the Atlantic and Pacific and it may even be punching above its own weight.
       
      User avatar
      mercure1
      Posts: 4306
      Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2008 5:13 am

      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Wed Sep 27, 2017 6:44 pm

      If DL was interested in Taiwan it should have launched a nonstop as part of announcing the termination of NRT-TPE service back in January.
      Seems they don't see the benefit and happy to leave United as sole US pax airline at TPE.
      mercure f-wtcc
       
      ManekS
      Posts: 143
      Joined: Thu Oct 16, 2008 9:42 am

      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Wed Sep 27, 2017 7:02 pm

      SonaSounds wrote:
      The entire country of Canada has a whopping 18 PDEWs to Singapore......18. You will not see YVR have a nonstop flight there anytime soon.


      May I ask what the source of this data is? Singapore Tourism Board statistics has 50,304 Canadian residents arriving by air from January through July, or approximately 237 per day. The disparity between the two numbers is very high - even more so when considering the STB numbers don’t count Singapore residents visiting Canada.

      https://www.stb.gov.sg/statistics-and-m ... 022sep2017).pdf
       
      SonaSounds
      Posts: 248
      Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2017 7:16 pm

      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Wed Sep 27, 2017 7:11 pm

      ManekS wrote:
      SonaSounds wrote:
      The entire country of Canada has a whopping 18 PDEWs to Singapore......18. You will not see YVR have a nonstop flight there anytime soon.


      May I ask what the source of this data is? Singapore Tourism Board statistics has 50,304 Canadian residents arriving by air from January through July, or approximately 237 per day. The disparity between the two numbers is very high - even more so when considering the STB numbers don’t count Singapore residents visiting Canada.

      https://www.stb.gov.sg/statistics-and-m ... 022sep2017).pdf


      My error, that number is completely off. I looked at the wrong line haha. Just over 300 PDEWs for the entire country of Canada from July 16 - June 17. The makes at lot more sense with your data source.
       
      User avatar
      LAXintl
      Posts: 23547
      Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Wed Sep 27, 2017 7:12 pm

      ManekS wrote:
      May I ask what the source of this data is? Singapore Tourism Board statistics has 50,304 Canadian residents arriving by air from January through July, or approximately 237 per day. The disparity between the two numbers is very high - even more so when considering the STB numbers don’t count Singapore residents visiting Canada.


      You realize not all Canadian neither live in nor arrive from Canada right? They might arrive, reside, or do business in 3rd nations before landing in SIN.

      Also even for Canadians in Canada certainly not all are clustered around or would fly via YVR. For example YUL-NYC-SIN or via Europe/ME would be shorter distance than via YVR.
      From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
       
      SonaSounds
      Posts: 248
      Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2017 7:16 pm

      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Wed Sep 27, 2017 7:24 pm

      SonaSounds wrote:
      planemanofnz wrote:

      Yes, I realize the need for connecting traffic, which is why I cited:

      1. SQ's new partnership with AS (who have their main base at SEA), signed only a few weeks ago.

      2. Precedent ULH routes (on A380s) that probably have less PDEWs than SEA - SIN, like QF's DFW - SYD and EK's DXB - AKL (relying almost exclusively on connections).

      SonaSounds wrote:
      The argument that the yield from 37 travelers can make the flight cost effective shows the naivety of the OP on this subject. With no partner for SQ or DL on either end and the fact the SIN is out of the way for most connecting flights in Asia means this route is not happening anytime in the next 5 years.

      Likewise, please go back and read all of my posts.

      I said that in addition to the 37 PDEWs, there are cargo and connecting traffic opportunities, as well as growth potential from a base of 37 PDEWs.

      You are incorrect about there being no partner for SQ on the SEA end - look up the extensive SQ-AS tie-up, which was signed only a few weeks ago.

      Cheers,

      C.



      Again, it is 37 PDEWs on a plane that holds 300ish on the low end. Singapore is a strong O&D market because it is remote from the USA and makes no logical sense to use as a connecting point as for North America flights almost everything is a back hall. On the USA side, you have 2 nonstops from SFO plus a one-stop, and you have 1 nonstop from LAX plus a one-stop. Both these markets have 4x-8x the PDEW traffic. Yes connections fill up planes and the EK example is very poor as their model is completely different than any other USA carrier. QF from DFW has about 60 PDEWs from local to SYD, but again, they are connecting the entire east coast to the entirety of Australia via that link. Two huge feeder markets on either end. SEA-SIN only has it on one end.

      The entire country of Canada has (EDIT: ty ManekS) almost 300 PDEWS to Singapore. Star Partners on both ends make this more likely.

      No matter how much you wish for traffic there, if there is no traffic it is not worth the airlines time. There are dozens of other routes for them to consider that are much more profitable. Airliner always throws around "yield" now on every post, but most people don't really know what they are saying. Yield plays major importance on highly competitive routes like SFO-LAX, JFK-LHR, etc. Airlines are not going to start unserved routes on unserved city pairs and sell tickets that are not making the flight money. They won't even operate the flight unless they can fill up the front, back, and belly of the plane. Seattle/YVR are just too small of markets for SIN and with numerous one-stop options in Asia and the USA already, it is not really worth the airlines time. JFK, ORD, IAH, and IAD all have way more PDEWs to SIN than SEA. You are much more likely to see a few of those markets start first before you see a pacific northwest nonstop SIN flight.

      The risk is very high for an airline to start a route based almost entirely off connecting traffic, especially when there are multiple one-stop options already offered. I does not appear that SEA is a "juicy" enough route for SIN to take that risk when they have so many better cities to put their frames
       
      ManekS
      Posts: 143
      Joined: Thu Oct 16, 2008 9:42 am

      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Wed Sep 27, 2017 7:34 pm

      LAXintl wrote:
      ManekS wrote:
      May I ask what the source of this data is? Singapore Tourism Board statistics has 50,304 Canadian residents arriving by air from January through July, or approximately 237 per day. The disparity between the two numbers is very high - even more so when considering the STB numbers don’t count Singapore residents visiting Canada.


      You realize not all Canadian neither live in nor arrive from Canada right? They might arrive, reside, or do business in 3rd nations before landing in SIN.

      Also even for Canadians in Canada certainly not all are clustered around or would fly via YVR. For example YUL-NYC-SIN or via Europe/ME would be shorter distance than via YVR.


      I am aware of this. As stated, the STB data comes from disembarkation cards, which have two fields - one for nationality and one for country of residence. These statistics only count Canadian citizens (and non-Canadian citizens) who reside in Canada. They do not include, for example, a Canadian citizen that resides in Thailand.

      Of course, there is the possibility a visitor might visit other countries before or after their trip to Singapore. However, the point is that the PDEW traffic is certainly not as low as 18 pax per day, which the poster I quoted has corrected as figure he misread.
       
      planemanofnz
      Topic Author
      Posts: 4263
      Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Fri Sep 29, 2017 9:24 am

      SonaSounds wrote:
      Singapore is a strong O&D market because it is remote from the USA and makes no logical sense to use as a connecting point as for North America flights almost everything is a back hall.

      SIN (through SQ) is a connection point to:

      - Indonesia - the fourth most populous country in the world, and one of the fastest growing G20 economies

      - Western Australia - the state with the highest GDP per capita in Australia, and which produces almost 1 in 2 of Australia's exports

      In both locations, SQ has a very strong reputation, and is a dominant foreign carrier.

      SEA (through AS) is a connection point to all of North America, and is closer to SIN than SFO or LAX.

      Regarding your "back hall" argument, you realize that many Japanese customers "back hall" to ICN, and fly on KE to North America, right? Likewise, many Chinese customers "back hall" to HKG, and fly on CX to North America. This is particularly so when their home markets do not offer a non-stop flight to a particular city (e.g. LAS, in KE's case, which is not served non-stop from Japan), or when their home carrier offers poorer service (e.g. CX against CZ, MU and CA, particularly in premium classes).

      I am certain that some customers in Malaysia, Myanmar and other nearby countries would also take a short "back hall," in order to use SQ and SIN (which are award winning brands).

      SonaSounds wrote:
      Two huge feeder markets on either end. SEA-SIN only has it on one end.

      At the very least, all of North America (AS, through SEA) and Indonesia and Western Australia (SQ, through SIN).

      See http://newsroom.alaskaair.com/2017-08-3 ... experience

      This is not accounting for other "back hall" customers in ASEAN, as well as growth in O&D traffic between SIN and SEA, which can be stimulated by a non-stop flight.

      SonaSounds wrote:
      JFK, ORD, IAH, and IAD all have way more PDEWs to SIN than SEA. You are much more likely to see a few of those markets start first before you see a pacific northwest nonstop SIN flight.

      IMO, we could see non-stop flights to all of these cities, in addition to SEA and/or YVR.

      SQ's previous dominant market - the Kangaroo route - is now owned by the ME3. One of the few corridors which SQ does not have to compete with the ME3 in, is ASEAN - North America, non-stop. SQ are fully aware of this, and their potential once the A350 ULRs come online.

      SEA has the advantage of being geographically closer to SIN than any of those cities (perhaps it can be reached by one of the non-ULR A350s), as well as being the home of its newest codeshare partner (AS).

      SonaSounds wrote:
      My error, that number is completely off. I looked at the wrong line haha. Just over 300 PDEWs for the entire country of Canada from July 16 - June 17. The makes at lot more sense with your data source.

      Could you please share where you get your PDEW figures from?

      I would also be interested to see the DUB - SEA figures. It was suggested over the weekend that EI may evaluate this route, which, like SIN - SEA, would be a tech hub - tech hub route.

      Cheers,

      C.
       
      notconcerned
      Posts: 146
      Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 3:39 pm

      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:26 am

      planemanofnz wrote:
      SQ's previous dominant market - the Kangaroo route - is now owned by the ME3. One of the few corridors which SQ does not have to compete with the ME3 in, is ASEAN - North America, non-stop. SQ are fully aware of this, and their potential once the A350 ULRs come online.



      Actually SQ already has to compete with ME3 and EU3 if going from SE Asia to East Coast North America. And they have to compete with HKG/TPE/ICN/TYO connection carriers to West Coast North America. Flying SIN-SEA/YVR won't give them much advantage besides giving people a better product and the very few who will pay a premium for a direct nonstop.
       
      planemanofnz
      Topic Author
      Posts: 4263
      Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:53 am

      notconcerned wrote:
      planemanofnz wrote:
      SQ's previous dominant market - the Kangaroo route - is now owned by the ME3. One of the few corridors which SQ does not have to compete with the ME3 in, is ASEAN - North America, non-stop. SQ are fully aware of this, and their potential once the A350 ULRs come online.



      Actually SQ already has to compete with ME3 and EU3 if going from SE Asia to East Coast North America. And they have to compete with HKG/TPE/ICN/TYO connection carriers to West Coast North America. Flying SIN-SEA/YVR won't give them much advantage besides giving people a better product and the very few who will pay a premium for a direct nonstop.

      Yes, there is some competition with the ME3 and EU3 in respect of connections, but a non-stop service is how SQ can compete against them, as I stated in my post.

      We see other airlines like QF (PER - LHR) and AI (DEL - SFO) also trying to use the ULH concept to by-pass and compete against the ME3 and other hub carriers - it is the future.

      In addition, SIN (particularly through MI) offers far more one-stop connections to the likes of Indonesia (and other ASEAN countries), than the Northeast Asian or ME3 hubs do.

      I disagree with you that only a "few" people will be willing to pay for a ULH / non-stop flight. As one example, forward bookings on QF's PER - LHR route have "broken records" and are "huge." This flight is also priced at a premium in QF's home market, where it can take advantage of brand recognition and loyalty (as SQ do in SIN, and ASEAN). This is even the case on ULH flights almost solely made up of connecting (as opposed to O&D) traffic, like how EK's non-stop AKL - DXB flight is always priced at a premium to its one-stop flights via BNE and MEL.

      Passenger surveys consistently show that the most stressful part of a journey is that spent in an airport - people try to avoid airports as much as they can, which the ULH concept takes advantage of.

      Cheers,

      C.
       
      simpv
      Posts: 163
      Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2016 12:19 pm

      Re: SIN-SEA/YVR - Untapped?

      Fri Sep 29, 2017 12:24 pm

      planemanofnz wrote:
      notconcerned wrote:
      planemanofnz wrote:
      SQ's previous dominant market - the Kangaroo route - is now owned by the ME3. One of the few corridors which SQ does not have to compete with the ME3 in, is ASEAN - North America, non-stop. SQ are fully aware of this, and their potential once the A350 ULRs come online.



      Passenger surveys consistently show that the most stressful part of a journey is that spent in an airport - people try to avoid airports as much as they can, which the ULH concept takes advantage of.


      I think you answered your own question--people don't want to transfer. SEA is at a disadvantage because UA has already started SFO-SIN, and will start LAX-SIN. Both have significantly larger PDEW to Singapore. Both provide connections to almost all of the cities that SEA would serve. Even if the timing is slightly longer for people in the pacific northwest, the market is too small for it to become a strategic consideration just yet.

      SQ has already stated it wants more direct flights--LAX and NYC will be top of that list (since SFO is already served), precisely because they have large PDEW. These premium travelers don't want to transfer, and SQ would be short-sighted to let UA have a monopoly on these highly lucrative routes. SEA has 37 PDEW; it may come eventually, but I'd say a direct flight is behind ORD and YVR.

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