Interesting to read this 2-year old thread on the eve of a much controversial referendum.

How would VY and IAG fit in a Europe where both the U.K. and Catalonia are no longer EU members. Follow U2's lead?

ro1960 wrote:

Interesting to read this 2-year old thread on the eve of a much controversial referendum.

How would VY and IAG fit in a Europe where both the U.K. and Catalonia are no longer EU members. Follow U2's lead?

That referendum is illegal and Cataluña's current position as a region of Spain won't change. Perhaps you'll see riots in the media but a week from now this will all die out. Whether you want their independence or not, none of this is going to change how IAG operates. In the hypothetical case that Cataluña were to leave, I want to believe that IAG would still be allowed to own VY as it does now. A newly independent Cataluña would still have strong ties with Spain and those ties would take time to break up.

I have created a new thread on that topic and moved the posts accordingly. Please do not post in old threads which are inactive for more than six months.

Here is the link to the old thread:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=595497

SQ22 wrote:

I have created a new thread on that topic and moved the posts accordingly. Please do not post in old threads which are inactive for more than six months.

Here is the link to the old thread:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=595497

Can you provide the link to the new thread? Can't seem to find it.

ro1960

I think this is the new thread with a link to the old one as posted by SQ22.

ro1960 wrote:

SQ22 wrote:

I have created a new thread on that topic and moved the posts accordingly. Please do not post in old threads which are inactive for more than six months.

Here is the link to the old thread:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=595497

Can you provide the link to the new thread? Can't seem to find it.

You're in it

Maybe Catalonia can join the UK. We will let them speak Catalan.

There is no way that Spain lets Catalonia go without a fight. But what if Catalonians respond by disrupting the operations at BCN? That is where things get interesting.

Catalonians who want independance are mainly motivated by the fact their economy is stronger than the economy of the rest of the country.

So disrupting that economy would go against their own interests.

peterinlisbon wrote:

Maybe Catalonia can join the UK. We will let them speak Catalan.

As if things weren't awkward enough with Gibraltar

Short answer is basically to be in the EU aviation pact one country doesn't necessarily need to be a EU member. Iceland, Switzerland, and there's more...

KLDC10 wrote:

peterinlisbon wrote:

Maybe Catalonia can join the UK. We will let them speak Catalan.

As if things weren't awkward enough with Gibraltar

Actually if Catalonia became part of the UK it might make quite a good match, as we are one state with many nations. In the past there were many associations like this between small nations. When I lived in Spain people always wanted to argue that Gibraltar was "in Spain" but when I asked about Ceuta and Melilla then suddenly history was more important than geography. Actually in my experience it's best just to avoid talking about the subject, especially when drink is involved.

I think it would probably be best for Catalonia to stay in Spain and just try to negotiate a better financial or autonomous deal because leaving would give them all of the same problems that the UK has plus economic and social chaos. I don't think there's any way it could go smoothly. The IAG thing is just one relatively small aspect. If Catalonia was suddenly outside of Spain and outside of the EU there would a huge amount of disruption. Ironically the ecomomic argument for leaving (because Catalonia is one of the richest areas of Spain) doesn't make a lot of sense because they wouldn't benefit economically if they did leave, at least not for the next 10-20 years.

VCEflyboy wrote:

Short answer is basically to be in the EU aviation pact one country doesn't necessarily need to be a EU member. Iceland, Switzerland, and there's more...

Er,...Norway! They are not an EU member but have a little outfit trying to make an impression the big boys

Like the closed thread, this one is too political for my liking, dealing as it does with hypothetical outcomes of current political issues. Is it a Commercial Aviation topic?

peterinlisbon wrote:

Maybe Catalonia can join the UK. We will let them speak Catalan.

KLDC10 wrote:

As if things weren't awkward enough with Gibraltar

Thank you guys, you just made my day. And it's a sad day in Spain.

peterinlisbon wrote:

Actually if Catalonia became part of the UK it might make quite a good match, as we are one state with many nations. In the past there were many associations like this between small nations. When I lived in Spain people always wanted to argue that Gibraltar was "in Spain" but when I asked about Ceuta and Melilla then suddenly history was more important than geography. Actually in my experience it's best just to avoid talking about the subject, especially when drink is involved.

I think it would probably be best for Catalonia to stay in Spain and just try to negotiate a better financial or autonomous deal because leaving would give them all of the same problems that the UK has plus economic and social chaos. I don't think there's any way it could go smoothly. The IAG thing is just one relatively small aspect. If Catalonia was suddenly outside of Spain and outside of the EU there would a huge amount of disruption. Ironically the ecomomic argument for leaving (because Catalonia is one of the richest areas of Spain) doesn't make a lot of sense because they wouldn't benefit economically if they did leave, at least not for the next 10-20 years.

I tend to agree with you on both sides. Better not talking about politics (no one will reach a 100% acceptance of a speech and a speech will never reach 100% of its contents accepted)

But on the aviation and corporate level of the issue... it's tricky. Right now, even if tomorrow Catalonia were to declace its independence from Spain on its own, there are no procedures in place, nor they will be in the foreseable future, to rise a new country. No legal procedures to create a company so you couldn't create Vueling Cat SL to cease being Spanish and so on on on...

It is quite different with Brexit as the UK and Great Britain existed as an entity before Brexit and will continue as such after Brexit, although some minor/major changes will be needed on international (existing) treaties, laws, institutions and procedures. Independent catalonia won't have them from day 1.

We are seeing Day 1 after Brexit way too far, I can't imagine Day 1 of independent Catalonia being tomorrow

Aisak wrote:

peterinlisbon wrote:

Maybe Catalonia can join the UK. We will let them speak Catalan.

KLDC10 wrote:

As if things weren't awkward enough with Gibraltar

Thank you guys, you just made my day. And it's a sad day in Spain.

peterinlisbon wrote:

Actually if Catalonia became part of the UK it might make quite a good match, as we are one state with many nations. In the past there were many associations like this between small nations. When I lived in Spain people always wanted to argue that Gibraltar was "in Spain" but when I asked about Ceuta and Melilla then suddenly history was more important than geography. Actually in my experience it's best just to avoid talking about the subject, especially when drink is involved.

I think it would probably be best for Catalonia to stay in Spain and just try to negotiate a better financial or autonomous deal because leaving would give them all of the same problems that the UK has plus economic and social chaos. I don't think there's any way it could go smoothly. The IAG thing is just one relatively small aspect. If Catalonia was suddenly outside of Spain and outside of the EU there would a huge amount of disruption. Ironically the ecomomic argument for leaving (because Catalonia is one of the richest areas of Spain) doesn't make a lot of sense because they wouldn't benefit economically if they did leave, at least not for the next 10-20 years.

I tend to agree with you on both sides. Better not talking about politics (no one will reach a 100% acceptance of a speach and a speach will never reach 100% of its contents accepted)

But on the aviation and corporate level of the issue... it's tricky. Right now, even if tomorrow Catalonia were to declace its independence from Spain on its own, there are no procedures in place, nor they will be in the foreseable future, to rise a new country. No legal procedures to create a company so you couldn't create Vueling Cat SL to cease being Spanish and so on on on...

It is quite different with Brexit as the UK and Great Britain existed as an entity before Brexit and will continue as such after Brexit, although some minor/major changes will be needed on international (existing) treaties, laws, institutions and procedures. Independent catalonia won't have them from day 1.

We are seeing Day 1 after Brexit way too far, I can't imagine Day 1 of independent Catalonia being tomorrow

If you'd like to join us over in Non-Aviation, we're having an interesting discussion of the political implications there. Feel free to copy your reply there and join in the discussion
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1375203

Egerton wrote:

Like the closed thread, this one is too political for my liking, dealing as it does with hypothetical outcomes of current political issues. Is it a Commercial Aviation topic?

This was my intent by talking about VY, IAG and so but I don't control the answers of other membres!

They might be not part of EU but they could still allow EU airlines to operate at least tentatively, especially in Catalonia's case? But then another question would be will Spanish authority allow those flights to be operated?

By the way, after South Sudan independence, how was airlines etc. over there arranged?

c933103 wrote:

They might be not part of EU but they could still allow EU airlines to operate at least tentatively, especially in Catalonia's case?

Well, that has to be the case, unless they plan to get BCN empty as there is not a Catalan institution to register planes or set up companies, all airlines have to be "foreign"

c933103 wrote:

But then another question would be will Spanish authority allow those flights to be operated?

So far there is no Catalan authority to control the airspace, monitor rules, issue compilance certificates, register planes, negociate bilaterals... It's all wait and see what happens....

There's no way to foresee the future if there is no common ground and rules and regulations can change overnight....

hispanola wrote:

That referendum is illegal

The process of a region seeking self-determination is usually deemed illegal by the occupying nation right up until that region is independent.

c933103 wrote:

They might be not part of EU but they could still allow EU airlines to operate at least tentatively, especially in Catalonia's case? But then another question would be will Spanish authority allow those flights to be operated?

Without being political, if Catalunya is recognised as an independent state (which is beyond unlikely at this stage), all EU treaties that were valid for them (as part of the Kingdom of Spain) immediately become null and void (unlike the Brexit, which isn't an annulment but more like a divorce in terms of the process). Which means they would have to negotiate their own bilaterals, membership in Schengen (which is possible even as a non-EU nation), openskies treaties, etc. It would be a logistical nightmare that could cut Catalunya off for a while. Especially BCN (and GRO in the case of FR) will become destinations airlines may want to avoid due to these issues.

There is the area called the European Common Aviation Area which some have referred to above which a state does not need to be a member of to be part of and allows non regulated access/flights between members. The EU has been most keen to get as many countries signed up to liberalize aviation and deregulate it and countries such as Morocco and Jordan are even signed up to a version of this agreement! Norway is too and it's likely the UK would remain in this.

LX138 wrote:

There is the area called the European Common Aviation Area which some have referred to above which a state does not need to be a member of to be part of and allows non regulated access/flights between members. The EU has been most keen to get as many countries signed up to liberalize aviation and deregulate it and countries such as Morocco and Jordan are even signed up to a version of this agreement! Norway is too and it's likely the UK would remain in this.

Yet, to become member of ECAA, Spain has to agree to such an agreement (highly unlikely).

If UK want to join ECAA, it would also need to agree with a number of European regulations together with that. I think a problem might be, will UK be willing to put those regulations back in place after removing European regulations from their law?
And, countries such as Morocco and Jordan are not going to sign into ECAA afaik. they're going to sign something caclled European-meditterian open sky treaties which seems like more of a regular open sky treaty between different countries instead of a ECAA-styled common aviation market

Yes but Morocco at least indicated that it wants full involvement in the ECAA.

The UK isn't removing these laws either, although we are still some way off getting to the aviation detail in any changes that may or may not happen.

Sitting here wondering if my EK flight from BNE to DXB to BCN in 2 months time will be different.

Visas and Passports aside what will the changes to aviation be when/if all this is ratified.

Will it stay as BCN, probably
What changes to schedules from the vast number of airlines that fly in and out.

What will Iberia, Air Europa, Vueling do? and IAG for that matter.

Comments and thoughts

Nothing much, BCN will continue to see constant growth. Vueling will become Catalan airline (rather than Spanish)

Both Air Europa have centered their operations at MAD and the few routes that they have to/from the rest of Spain will all probably continue.

Nothing will happen that fast ... if ever at all

Catalonia would not be part of the EU and not part of the common aviation market, so traffic rights with the EU would need to be discussed.

There will be no Independence. But if it happens without the approval of Spain there will be some big consequences.

Spain will do everything to make it as hard as possible for Catalonia to make it work. There will be no more direct flights and trains between the 2 countries. All Spanish airlines will stop their operations in Barcelona. Spain will block any deals between Catalonia and the EU. Catalonia will have to negotiate new air transport agreements with all EU countries individually, Spain will lobby hard against any of those deals.

It will be a total mess.

I think this must have already an immediate impact.

The riot images in the streets of Barcelona will certainly be not appealing for tourists that will change their BCN city break for quieter destinations like Lisbon or Naples. Also Barcelona has a lot of domestic flying and this might have an impact on Spaniards from other areas not visiting Barcelona for VFR, business or holiday.

Also don't forget that a lot of the Spanish tourism boom had to do with the bad situation in Tunisia or Turkey. But with those countries coming back (e.g. British carriers adding routes to Tunisia, Russian carriers to Turkey), the terrorist attack in August 17 coupled to those riots will certainly accelerate that process, as those Brits or Germans will no longer see Barcelona and Spain as a quiet, safe destination.

It is interesting to see that foreign carriers in general are adding little capacity to Spain for 2018. Let's compare Portugal and Spain to the US. Portugal is getting OPO-EWR with United, ATL-LIS and JFK-PDL with Delta and OPO-YYZ and LIS-YUL with Air Canada. 5 new TATL routes for S18 compared to 0 for Spain, despite Spain being 4.5 times the population.

I would say that, in the next 6 months at least there will be no change. There will be negotiations, wrangling's, disputes, etc. but this will not reach the aviation market.
Then, who knows? It is a test for Brexit although this is an unilateral decision from a region through an unrecognized referendum.
I would say that, particularly for the EU, this is extremely delicate since it may open a precedent for example in regards to Scotland's interests since, if Catalonia manages to remain in the EU, a call for indyref2 will be coming very quickly but if they get kicked out, then Sturgeon can forget independence in this generation.
Let's see first how Spain manages this and then we will see the rest.

Nothing will happen, like with brexit, money (and flights, and tourists) will go wherever they find more options, the politics won't stop it. I don't think the independence will come, at least soon, but a wall has been built and both parts will have to negotiate, with Eu in the middle. that means only more money will pour there. it's just business as usual.

The Brexit is a completely different situation, that's a member state which is leaving the EU. The only objective of the EU is to make it work in their best advantage. Same goes for the UK. But in the end there will be deals and treaties to make it work.

In the case of Catalonia we will see Spain playing hardball, vetoing everything in EU that has to do with the Catalonian independence. There will be no EU membership, there will be no trade deals, there will be no transport deals. Spain will do everything to prevent that any Spanish company will still do business with or in Catalonia. It will be a very nasty break-up, which will have major consequences for air-transport and tourism.

pipeafcr wrote:

Nothing much, BCN will continue to see constant growth. Vueling will become Catalan airline (rather than Spanish)

Both Air Europa have centered their operations at MAD and the few routes that they have to/from the rest of Spain will all probably continue.

Your assuming an independent Catalonia would be part of the EU and Open Skies. I'd imagine Vueling would have to set up a Catalonian AOC.

pipeafcr wrote:

Nothing much, BCN will continue to see constant growth. Vueling will become Catalan airline (rather than Spanish)

Both Air Europa have centered their operations at MAD and the few routes that they have to/from the rest of Spain will all probably continue.

You must be kidding. Let's hope for the sake of all the jobs involved that nothing much happens. If Catalonia gets independent it's highly likely it will be a State not recognized by other EU States and sorely vetoed from entering the Union. Can you fathom what a disaster this would be for the local economy?

Vueling is an IAG subsidiary, and very much a pan-European airline, not really a "Spanish" airline, and even less so a Catalan entity... I think that in all likelihood, with a Catalan independence scenario VY would probably transfer the vast majority of its BCN ops at another Spanish airport. But rest assure that this would mean losing a high number of jobs...

Catalan hearts really are ruling heads here, what a mess!

oldannyboy wrote:

pipeafcr wrote:

Nothing much, BCN will continue to see constant growth. Vueling will become Catalan airline (rather than Spanish)

Vueling is an IAG subsidiary, and very much a pan-European airline, not really a "Spanish" airline, and even less so a Catalan entity... I think that in all likelihood, with a Catalan independence scenario VY would probably transfer the vast majority of its BCN ops at another Spanish airport. But rest assure that this would mean losing a high number of jobs...

Vueling have a large hub in BCN and largely dominate the airport, they will not pack their bags and leave BCN. Why would they ? Just to allow FR/U2 to move in and take their place ? It makes no sense...

Just because Catalonia decides to exit Spain (and if they succeed) won't halt travel to BCN. In that sense largely nothing will change, for Vueling the only change will probably obtaining a Catalan AOC in addition to a Spanish one.

runway23 wrote:

oldannyboy wrote:

pipeafcr wrote:

Nothing much, BCN will continue to see constant growth. Vueling will become Catalan airline (rather than Spanish)

Vueling is an IAG subsidiary, and very much a pan-European airline, not really a "Spanish" airline, and even less so a Catalan entity... I think that in all likelihood, with a Catalan independence scenario VY would probably transfer the vast majority of its BCN ops at another Spanish airport. But rest assure that this would mean losing a high number of jobs...

Vueling have a large hub in BCN and largely dominate the airport, they will not pack their bags and leave BCN. Why would they ? Just to allow FR/U2 to move in and take their place ? It makes no sense...

Just because Catalonia decides to exit Spain (and if they succeed) won't halt travel to BCN. In that sense largely nothing will change, for Vueling the only change will probably obtaining a Catalan AOC in addition to a Spanish one.

People seem to forget that an independent Catalonia will not be part of the EU, at least not 'automatically', and not initially. Spain would veto its entry into the Union, and most EU countries would probably not recognized this self-secession. This scenario (of highly charged political instability) would very significantly alter the purpose and function of the VY hub there. IAG would likely re-trench to MAD. It's likely that a vast portion of the traffic the city enjoys now would be naturally taken elsewhere. This would be a huge blow to Catalan tourism....

As your flight is only in two months time, I don't see anything will be different regarding flights, visas, passports etc.

More realistically, I can see some disruption by ATC or baggage handlers etc trying to make their point via industrial action for one reason or another. I am not sure, but I presume they are employed by local operators. Whereas customs/immigration staff are more likely employed centrally via the Madrid government (again, I stand to be corrected on this point) and may be subject to work to rules or other industrial stoppages to suit agendas.

The big question everyone needs to know is will Barca stay in La Liga?

and what about the ME3. EK, EY & QR. wonder what they are thinking

imagoagnitio wrote:

and what about the ME3. EK, EY & QR. wonder what they are thinking

I presume they'll be keeping an eye on things but pretty much business as usual. EK fly to a lot more unstable areas than northern Spain and QR have a few issues at home to worry about at the moment.

AVFCdownunder wrote:

As your flight is only in two months time, I don't see anything will be different regarding flights, visas, passports etc.

More realistically, I can see some disruption by ATC or baggage handlers etc trying to make their point via industrial action for one reason or another. I am not sure, but I presume they are employed by local operators. Whereas customs/immigration staff are more likely employed centrally via the Madrid government (again, I stand to be corrected on this point) and may be subject to work to rules or other industrial stoppages to suit agendas.

The big question everyone needs to know is will Barca stay in La Liga?

They could always join us in the Championship. KROSOTV (in joke).

runway23 wrote:

Vueling have a large hub in BCN and largely dominate the airport, they will not pack their bags and leave BCN. Why would they ? Just to allow FR/U2 to move in and take their place ? It makes no sense...

Just because Catalonia decides to exit Spain (and if they succeed) won't halt travel to BCN. In that sense largely nothing will change, for Vueling the only change will probably obtaining a Catalan AOC in addition to a Spanish one.

If Vueling stays in Barcelona and get a Catalan AOC it will certainly result in the loss of their Spanish AOC, so no more flights to and from Spain and will probably also have severe consequences for IAG, which is still a company based in Spain. The Spanish government will make sure that no Spanish owned / based airline will have operations in Catalonia.

Momo1435 wrote:

runway23 wrote:

Vueling have a large hub in BCN and largely dominate the airport, they will not pack their bags and leave BCN. Why would they ? Just to allow FR/U2 to move in and take their place ? It makes no sense...

Just because Catalonia decides to exit Spain (and if they succeed) won't halt travel to BCN. In that sense largely nothing will change, for Vueling the only change will probably obtaining a Catalan AOC in addition to a Spanish one.

If Vueling stays in Barcelona and get a Catalan AOC it will certainly result in the loss of their Spanish AOC, so no more flights to and from Spain and will probably also have severe consequences for IAG, which is still a company based in Spain. The Spanish government will make sure that no Spanish owned / based airline will have operations in Catalonia.

Vueling also has extensive operations that do not even touch BCN/Spain. Lose the Spanish AOC for the Catalan AOC (which will not be part of the EU/ECAA as long as Spain has any say) and you can say goodbye to Vueling's FCO hub, small CDG focus city, etc.

In the event of independence traffic at BCN will go down because Spain will see that it is harder for EU members/citizens to freely visit and do business in the region.

This could be interesting for aviation as well as the region in general. Makes me wonder what will happen when California votes for secession as well.

Many keep pointing out that Catalunya will not be part of the Europea Union, which seems like the real scenario, but in Europe the freedom for airlines to operate from countries other than their own is not only because of the EU. Within the member states of the EU yes, there's a the Single Market, but also outside the EU there's the European Common Aviation Area (ECAA) agreement signed by the EU, Bosnia, Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, Albania, Macedonia, Moldova, Georgia, and Norway to liberate the air transport industry between or within ECAA states. An independent Catalunya would have to sign the agreement as soon as they can to normalize the situation. If Kosovo, a country that is not recognized by Spain and other 4 EU states, was able to sign and enforce the ECAA agreement, Catalunya will be able to do it without Spain having a say. Other way would be to have bilateral agreements like Switzerland, which is not a EU or ECAA member state.

tommyarias wrote:

If Kosovo, a country that is not recognized by Spain and other 4 EU states, was able to sign and enforce the ECAA agreement, Catalunya will be able to do it without Spain having a say. Other way would be to have bilateral agreements like Switzerland, which is not a EU or ECAA member state.

The difference is Spain is just not recognizing Kosovo as a formality, because they don't want it to fuel the Catalonia independence movement. In reality Spain could give a rat's ass that Kosovo is independent so they are not going to seriously press and debate the issue. The other 4 states that don't recognize the country have no real power in the EU.

It would be different with Catalonia. Spain will actively try and stop/stall any agreements with the region and do everything they can to make Catalonia's life a living hell. Spain actually has some influence in the EU too.

tommyarias wrote:

Many keep pointing out that Catalunya will not be part of the Europea Union, which seems like the real scenario, but in Europe the freedom for airlines to operate from countries other than their own is not only because of the EU. Within the member states of the EU yes, there's a the Single Market, but also outside the EU there's the European Common Aviation Area (ECAA) agreement signed by the EU, Bosnia, Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, Albania, Macedonia, Moldova, Georgia, and Norway to liberate the air transport industry between or within ECAA states. An independent Catalunya would have to sign the agreement as soon as they can to normalize the situation. If Kosovo, a country that is not recognized by Spain and other 4 EU states, was able to sign and enforce the ECAA agreement, Catalunya will be able to do it without Spain having a say. Other way would be to have bilateral agreements like Switzerland, which is not a EU or ECAA member state.

Exactly my thoughts! EU was fairly active in breaking up Yugoslavia and other C European countries. They already have a tried and tested template for Catalonia.

If memory servers right, all this started with Slovenia. Iberia may be unhappy with this, but with the growth of European LCC's, no one will notice the change in aviation.

imagoagnitio wrote:

AVFCdownunder wrote:

As your flight is only in two months time, I don't see anything will be different regarding flights, visas, passports etc.

More realistically, I can see some disruption by ATC or baggage handlers etc trying to make their point via industrial action for one reason or another. I am not sure, but I presume they are employed by local operators. Whereas customs/immigration staff are more likely employed centrally via the Madrid government (again, I stand to be corrected on this point) and may be subject to work to rules or other industrial stoppages to suit agendas.

The big question everyone needs to know is will Barca stay in La Liga?

They could always join us in the Championship. KROSOTV (in joke).

You'll be in League 1 by the time that happens .
UTV SOTC