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atcsundevil
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DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:25 pm

It seems as though we've always had a lot of Washington DC area posters and plenty of discussion, but never a DC dedicated thread! So I'm changing that.

I'd like for this thread to encompass not just the DC Metro airports (IAD, DCA, BWI), but also other airports in the region, like RIC, ORF, PHF, CHO, LYH, ROA, etc.

A few topic ideas to get things started:
    - What's in the near term future at Dulles/National/BWI? New airlines/routes?
    - Construction updates at IAD and DCA
    - Potential future deal between UA/MWAA to replace IAD Concourse C/D?
    - Slot usage at DCA
    - RIC finally got its first west coast flight (DEN) and appears to be performing well; are there other potential routes that could follow?

Just like other areas threads, this is an open and ongoing discussion about the DMV region. Enjoy!
 
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787fan8
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:40 pm

atcsundevil wrote:
It seems as though we've always had a lot of Washington DC area posters and plenty of discussion, but never a DC dedicated thread! So I'm changing that.

I'd like for this thread to encompass not just the DC Metro airports (IAD, DCA, BWI), but also other airports in the region, like RIC, ORF, PHF, CHO, LYH, ROA, etc.

A few topic ideas to get things started:
    - What's in the near term future at Dulles/National/BWI? New airlines/routes?
    - Construction updates at IAD and DCA
    - Potential future deal between UA/MWAA to replace IAD Concourse C/D?
    - Slot usage at DCA
    - RIC finally got its first west coast flight (DEN) and appears to be performing well; are there other potential routes that could follow?

Just like other areas threads, this is an open and ongoing discussion about the DMV region. Enjoy!

I'll go ahead and knock the route part out for you, because I like guessing new routes.
Cathay Pacific to HKG
LOT to WAW
Japan Airlines to NRT
EVA Air to TPE
Iberia to MAD resumption

This is for IAD btw
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jplatts
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:51 pm

Southwest currently only does 42 departures a day out of 6 gates at DCA, but Southwest does have room at DCA to add at least 20 additional flights a day out of its existing gates at DCA if Southwest can acquire additional slots at DCA. There are at least 8 within-perimeter destinations that Southwest could add nonstop service to out of DCA if Southwest acquires extra slots at DCA, including Albany, Boston, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Jacksonville (FL), Louisville, Manchester (NH), and Minneapolis/St. Paul.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:28 pm

What is the viability of a regional airline based in WAS, maybe BWI? One starting out with half a dozen Q400's or ATR72's flying no further than 550-600 mi missions. The economics of those airplanes are hard to beat, so they could probably withstand a fare war and possibly not poke the WN bear.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Wed Oct 04, 2017 10:28 pm

atcsundevil wrote:
Potential future deal between UA/MWAA to replace IAD Concourse C/D?

This made news back in May. Apparently UA and MWAA are discussing "terminal improvements." Not sure what it means, but hopefully they find a way to build the new linear concourse. Concourse B is very nice, but C/D are a mess. Obviously the money Virginia gave to the airport is helping.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ov-437593/
 
washingtonflyer
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Wed Oct 04, 2017 10:53 pm

So my question revolves around the new commuter terminal build-out at DCA. I saw them knocking down the MWAA building and they did that quickly. Once they begin work on the actual terminal area for the new pier, where are they going to move the CRJ2s and E145s and backup mainline AA aircraft that usually park in Commuter World?
 
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FLIHGH
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Wed Oct 04, 2017 11:01 pm

jplatts wrote:
Southwest currently only does 42 departures a day out of 6 gates at DCA, but Southwest does have room at DCA to add at least 20 additional flights a day out of its existing gates at DCA if Southwest can acquire additional slots at DCA. There are at least 8 within-perimeter destinations that Southwest could add nonstop service to out of DCA if Southwest acquires extra slots at DCA, including Albany, Boston, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Jacksonville (FL), Louisville, Manchester (NH), and Minneapolis/St. Paul.

Doubtful they will add DCA-BOS. There are already 20+ daily flights, and they wouldn't be able to compete much with the limits on slots.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Wed Oct 04, 2017 11:26 pm

There are several sites in the Baltimore/DC corridor vying for the big Amazon HQ contract. Could that have any tangible impact on air traffic?
 
OKCDCA
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Wed Oct 04, 2017 11:40 pm

Well after lurking around here for years, I finally decided to join and make my first post. As the handle suggests, I'm from OKC but moved to the DC area a couple months ago. I fly out of DCA quite a bit and really enjoy the airport, plus my office has a great view of the river visual which keeps me pleasantly distracted at work. I always enjoy reading all the discussion regarding DCA vs IAD and while I see both sides, I simply couldn't imagine having to make the trek to IAD every time I fly. Maybe once METRO is extended out that way but even then that would be a stretch.

Anyway, I'd obviously like to see OKC get a flight to DCA, even if it's once a day and preferably on AA (Yes AA is my preferred carrier but I don't think I've reached "fan boy" status yet). Every time I go back home, either through CLT or DFW, I feel like I count double digit people that I notice from my DCA flight making the OKC connection. With all the government and military operations in OK I'm really shocked the traffic isn't there to support it with a 170 or CR7/9. But like everything else, I'm sure if there was money to be made, it would have been operating already. I remember WN proposed it a few years ago when the 800's were first coming out and I believe it was going to be a tag on to a pre Wright Amendment DAL flight. Although I do get frustrated seeing some much smaller cities having multiple non-stops a day.

I'm looking forward to the new concourse getting built. I had my first experience out of 35X the other day and was not impressed. It didn't help that the flight attendant was late and they wouldn't let us off the bus until she arrived, which I understand but why even board the bus to go out there if the plane isn't ready?
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Wed Oct 04, 2017 11:48 pm

washingtonflyer wrote:
So my question revolves around the new commuter terminal build-out at DCA. I saw them knocking down the MWAA building and they did that quickly. Once they begin work on the actual terminal area for the new pier, where are they going to move the CRJ2s and E145s and backup mainline AA aircraft that usually park in Commuter World?


They’ll also be demolishing Hangars 11 and 12 (the old interim terminal when B and C were under construction) and I think some of that new space will be paved to handle any displaced RJ parking locations. The rest will be used for construction staging. But I think a lot of the current apron area will remain in use, perhaps reconfigured.

Here’s a slide deck from the most recent MWAA board meeting with some pictures of the progress. No overview of the plan itself, but you can see they’re expanding the apron a bit.
http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... ourney.pdf
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:06 am

msp747 wrote:
atcsundevil wrote:
Potential future deal between UA/MWAA to replace IAD Concourse C/D?

This made news back in May. Apparently UA and MWAA are discussing "terminal improvements." Not sure what it means, but hopefully they find a way to build the new linear concourse. Concourse B is very nice, but C/D are a mess. Obviously the money Virginia gave to the airport is helping.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ov-437593/


Well, two weeks ago while at National plane Day & The Dulles Plane Pull, I had asked the PIO for MWAA about this while working the slug for USAToday. the reply was a roll of the eyes and a polite, "Don't expect to see that any time in the foreseeable future"
Now get the hell off of my lawn your dang kids!
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:10 am

787fan8 wrote:
I'll go ahead and knock the route part out for you, because I like guessing new routes.
Cathay Pacific to HKG
LOT to WAW
Japan Airlines to NRT
EVA Air to TPE
Iberia to MAD resumption

This is for IAD btw

I'm actually disappointed IAD doesn't have a HKG flight yet. CX and UA both have aircraft capable of making it nonstop now. I don't know how much traffic exists between the two to definitively say a flight could be supported, but I have to imagine it's in the realm of possibility. I've traveled to HKG five or six times in the past couple of years, and a nonstop would certainly be preferable. With multiple daily flights to NRT and PEK, I would assume there's room for another major Asian hub. Chicago, NYC, and Boston all have HKG flights, so I hope IAD is next on the list. Unfortunately with CX's financial woes, it may not be soon, but UA has been on a roll with ULH 787 adds. Maybe IAD is due for a little love?

I could see LOT at some point. JAL would have trouble finding its way in with the UA/NH JV, in my opinion. EVA is an interesting idea, but I could see HKG coming first. IB is a good thought too — I was disappointed when IB and AZ left. AZ returning looks a little bleak to say the least, but IB might be in a position to return at some point. It would seem as though I IAG is content with routing European connections through LHR given BA's historical strength here, but I wonder if Brexit could play a factor in changing that somewhat for the future to potentially bring IB back.

jnev3289 wrote:
What is the viability of a regional airline based in WAS, maybe BWI? One starting out with half a dozen Q400's or ATR72's flying no further than 550-600 mi missions. The economics of those airplanes are hard to beat, so they could probably withstand a fare war and possibly not poke the WN bear.

You mean like this one?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_Air
Or this one?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preside ... (scheduled)
Or more recently this one?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun_Air_Express

Lol. In all seriousness though, regional carriers these days don't struggle because of DC, they struggle in general. It's hard to get out from the shadow of only four major carriers, three of which have extensive ops here. Independence was a great little airline, but they were mismanaged into a speedy death.

msp747 wrote:
This made news back in May. Apparently UA and MWAA are discussing "terminal improvements." Not sure what it means, but hopefully they find a way to build the new linear concourse. Concourse B is very nice, but C/D are a mess. Obviously the money Virginia gave to the airport is helping.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ov-437593/

I read the news when it came out, but haven't heard a peep since. Unlike the previous two advanced discussions in recent times, UA might actually be in a position to move negotiations forward with money to spend. This is probably the best chance IAD has had/will have. There's always talk of UA dehubbing IAD, but I find that notion ridiculous. They've shown at least a basic level of commitment by building the hangar complex, but apart from that, their international network from IAD would simply be too lucrative and prestigious to cede to another carrier without a fight. Since I believe they're in it for the long haul, and since the financial performance of all major US carriers have been at record levels, they're going to have to make some kind of major improvement to their facilities and passenger experience. A new midfield concourse is the only way that can happen. That said, I wonder if the MWAA has the money on their end. After years of massively expensive projects at IAD and DCA, one has to wonder if they've got the capital to pitch in on what's likely to be a $1 billion dollar project.

OKCDCA wrote:
Well after lurking around here for years, I finally decided to join and make my first post. As the handle suggests, I'm from OKC but moved to the DC area a couple months ago. I fly out of DCA quite a bit and really enjoy the airport, plus my office has a great view of the river visual which keeps me pleasantly distracted at work. I always enjoy reading all the discussion regarding DCA vs IAD and while I see both sides, I simply couldn't imagine having to make the trek to IAD every time I fly. Maybe once METRO is extended out that way but even then that would be a stretch.

Anyway, I'd obviously like to see OKC get a flight to DCA, even if it's once a day and preferably on AA (Yes AA is my preferred carrier but I don't think I've reached "fan boy" status yet). Every time I go back home, either through CLT or DFW, I feel like I count double digit people that I notice from my DCA flight making the OKC connection. With all the government and military operations in OK I'm really shocked the traffic isn't there to support it with a 170 or CR7/9. But like everything else, I'm sure if there was money to be made, it would have been operating already. I remember WN proposed it a few years ago when the 800's were first coming out and I believe it was going to be a tag on to a pre Wright Amendment DAL flight. Although I do get frustrated seeing some much smaller cities having multiple non-stops a day.

I'm looking forward to the new concourse getting built. I had my first experience out of 35X the other day and was not impressed. It didn't help that the flight attendant was late and they wouldn't let us off the bus until she arrived, which I understand but why even board the bus to go out there if the plane isn't ready?

Welcome to a.net! I'm glad this thread brought you out of lurker status. Also, congrats on getting out of OKC! As my username might suggest, I've spent some time there myself. I'm actually somewhat surprised OKC doesn't have a DCA flight. It's just inside the perimeter, so the only explanation can be a lack of interest. Between WN to BWI and UAX to IAD, it's clear that a nonstop market exists, just maybe not lucrative enough to use a DCA slot. In any case, I would assume WN would be the most likely candidate to add it.

Since it sounds like you're close to DCA, I'm not sure you'd have a reason to come out to IAD unless it's international, even with the Silver Line. I live in Leesburg, so obviously IAD is very convenient for me. I've only taken the Metro into DCA a couple of times, but it's just such a long trip from Reston. The only way IAD will truly be considered as the airport of choice for people living closer to DC — high speed rail. Since the Silver Line took about four decades to plan, I don't see that happening anytime soon.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:13 am

blockski wrote:
washingtonflyer wrote:
So my question revolves around the new commuter terminal build-out at DCA. I saw them knocking down the MWAA building and they did that quickly. Once they begin work on the actual terminal area for the new pier, where are they going to move the CRJ2s and E145s and backup mainline AA aircraft that usually park in Commuter World?


They’ll also be demolishing Hangars 11 and 12 (the old interim terminal when B and C were under construction) and I think some of that new space will be paved to handle any displaced RJ parking locations. The rest will be used for construction staging. But I think a lot of the current apron area will remain in use, perhaps reconfigured.

Here’s a slide deck from the most recent MWAA board meeting with some pictures of the progress. No overview of the plan itself, but you can see they’re expanding the apron a bit.
http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... ourney.pdf


PS: I still loath the secured National Hall plans :(
Now get the hell off of my lawn your dang kids!
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:39 am

atcsundevil wrote:
Welcome to a.net! I'm glad this thread brought you out of lurker status. Also, congrats on getting out of OKC! As my username might suggest, I've spent some time there myself. I'm actually somewhat surprised OKC doesn't have a DCA flight. It's just inside the perimeter, so the only explanation can be a lack of interest. Between WN to BWI and UAX to IAD, it's clear that a nonstop market exists, just maybe not lucrative enough to use a DCA slot. In any case, I would assume WN would be the most likely candidate to add it.

Since it sounds like you're close to DCA, I'm not sure you'd have a reason to come out to IAD unless it's international, even with the Silver Line. I live in Leesburg, so obviously IAD is very convenient for me. I've only taken the Metro into DCA a couple of times, but it's just such a long trip from Reston. The only way IAD will truly be considered as the airport of choice for people living closer to DC — high speed rail. Since the Silver Line took about four decades to plan, I don't see that happening anytime soon.


Thanks for the welcome! I was actually living in a small town in KS before moving out here so I was thrilled to get out of there but wasn't to wild about DC to begin with but it's slowly growing on me. I've been out to Leesburg twice since I've moved here and really like the area. I do miss OKC though, the place is really growing right now.

I'm very close to DCA and even if I was going international I'd probably opt to connect just because it'd be just as timely as driving out to IAD for me. I say that now, but I'll cross that bridge when I do have to go international... I work in the freight railroad industry so be easy mentioning HSR, I'm not its biggest supporter...

I'd like to know the load factors on the UAX IAD flight and how much of that is connecting traffic vs local. I know a vast majority of the WN BWI flight is connecting traffic as it is WN's only flight that goes to the east coast out of OKC and with WN dropping the OKC's MDW flight I'm sure that will only increase the number of people looking to take it to connect to destinations on the coast. I've had friends who take it to connect to destinations in the SE as well as NE.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:39 am

Expanding outside WAS, today was Allegiant's first day at ORF, after previously serving PHF from 2011-2014. Starting out with twice-weekly to PIE, they're starting SFB and FLL on Nov. 17.

I've posted here before about how this market doesn't respond well to less-than-daily service. They're doing three destinations this go around instead of just one so maybe it'll take longer than 3 years for them to run out of passengers who actually have the flexibility to plan their vacations around Allegiant's schedule.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:12 am

Not completely related (thought I love the thread idea also) but does anyone know what large aircraft departed IAD around 8:45PM EST this evening?

I'm kicking myself for not running outside sooner, I heard the typical jet blast low freq. roar approaching, but it's sometimes typical out here with the right wind, etc. Then a few seconds later I realized it was NOT typical. I ran outside to see it departing, VERY low and flat on climb-out, wingspan appeared to be AN-124, the haunting engine sound definitely seemed like the Antonov also.

Based on the departure perf. it looked like it was leaving WITH cargo, which seems odd?

I checked all the usual flight sites and only saw a 744 and 777, etc. They'd be a few thousand feet higher than this was. I'm about 15 miles (as the crow flies) west of IAD, this thing only looked to be about 4-5k feet AGL.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:27 am

Great idea for a thread. WN needs to do RIC to MDW. They said they would years ago....no excuse it has not happened. ORF to PHX could work for AA. WN flew to LAS from ORF for many years and gave up the route. ORF to PHX would probably generate more high yield traffic.

The western suburbs of DC are growing in a big way. I think there is great potential for additional domestic growth at IAD. I think international from IAD is reasonably well served.
707 717 727 72S 737 733 737-700 747 757 753 767-300 764 A319 A320 DC-9-10 DC-9-30 DC-9-50, MD-82 MD-88 MD-90 DC-10-10 DC-10-40 F-100
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:33 pm

atcsundevil wrote:
jnev3289 wrote:
What is the viability of a regional airline based in WAS, maybe BWI? One starting out with half a dozen Q400's or ATR72's flying no further than 550-600 mi missions. The economics of those airplanes are hard to beat, so they could probably withstand a fare war and possibly not poke the WN bear.

You mean like this one?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_Air
Or this one?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preside ... (scheduled)
Or more recently this one?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun_Air_Express

Lol. In all seriousness though, regional carriers these days don't struggle because of DC, they struggle in general. It's hard to get out from the shadow of only four major carriers, three of which have extensive ops here. Independence was a great little airline, but they were mismanaged into a speedy death.

Yea kind of like those actually but focused and well managed at a non-super expensive airport and with a uniform fleet. If you keep the stage length below 600 mi, the Q400 and ATR offer almost unbeatable economics. Presidential and Independence seem like a mish mosh of fleet and they both operated out of IAD which has skyhigh airport costs. I was thinking a uniform Q400 or ATR 72 fleet out of BWI to keep costs manageable, allowing for sustainable competition on low fares. Both Skywest and FlyBe are retiring a good amount of Q400's in the near future too, so there will be affordable frames available.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:49 pm

vatveng wrote:
Expanding outside WAS, today was Allegiant's first day at ORF, after previously serving PHF from 2011-2014. Starting out with twice-weekly to PIE, they're starting SFB and FLL on Nov. 17.

I've posted here before about how this market doesn't respond well to less-than-daily service. They're doing three destinations this go around instead of just one so maybe it'll take longer than 3 years for them to run out of passengers who actually have the flexibility to plan their vacations around Allegiant's schedule.

They seem to have done fairly well in RIC. The markets in RIC and ORF aren't terribly different (at least that's the impression I had when I lived in RIC for about 15 years), so they should be able to make a decent go of it.

ElroyJetson wrote:
Great idea for a thread. WN needs to do RIC to MDW. They said they would years ago....no excuse it has not happened. ORF to PHX could work for AA. WN flew to LAS from ORF for many years and gave up the route. ORF to PHX would probably generate more high yield traffic.

The western suburbs of DC are growing in a big way. I think there is great potential for additional domestic growth at IAD. I think international from IAD is reasonably well served.

It's annoyed me how much WN has neglected RIC after the merger. AirTran had a fairly sizable operation for a number of years at both RIC and PHF, and now it's down to the solitary route to ATL. Bringing in AirTran was a big turning point for RIC, which for years had been one of the most expensive airports in the nation. I'm hoping that once WN manages some fleet growth again, they'll consider expanding RIC. I think flights to MCO, BOS, MDW, HOU, LAS, PHX, LAX, or any combination of those would have a chance. I think they're less likely to add west coast ops (they've been adverse to adding too much transcon capacity in recent years), but two or three or routes isn't unreasonable.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Thu Oct 05, 2017 2:44 pm

estorilm wrote:
Not completely related (thought I love the thread idea also) but does anyone know what large aircraft departed IAD around 8:45PM EST this evening?

I'm kicking myself for not running outside sooner, I heard the typical jet blast low freq. roar approaching, but it's sometimes typical out here with the right wind, etc. Then a few seconds later I realized it was NOT typical. I ran outside to see it departing, VERY low and flat on climb-out, wingspan appeared to be AN-124, the haunting engine sound definitely seemed like the Antonov also.

Based on the departure perf. it looked like it was leaving WITH cargo, which seems odd?

I checked all the usual flight sites and only saw a 744 and 777, etc. They'd be a few thousand feet higher than this was. I'm about 15 miles (as the crow flies) west of IAD, this thing only looked to be about 4-5k feet AGL.


Was it Volga-Dnper’s An-124? Was in SFO a lot recently. Here’s a couple links:

http://travelskills.com/2017/05/03/russian-mystery-plane-at-sfo/

http://airline.volga-dnepr.com/en/
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:28 pm

That type of plane often visits IAD.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:49 pm

Great thread! I work off of 50 on the backside of the Udvar-Hazy and get a great view of IAD traffic.

P.S. also a fellow Sun Devil.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:59 pm

estorilm wrote:
Not completely related (thought I love the thread idea also) but does anyone know what large aircraft departed IAD around 8:45PM EST this evening?


Try flightaware.com. Since I'm a nice guy, I checked. These seem to be the options.

8:42pm KLM 652 772 Glasgow (??)
8:46pm ICE 644 763 Keflavik
8:50pm QTR 708 77W Hamad Int'l.

Jim
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Thu Oct 05, 2017 4:21 pm

washingtonflyer wrote:
That type of plane often visits IAD.

Indeed. Had an An-124 fly over me in Leesburg a couple of weeks ago. Those things are louder than just about anything (non-military) out there these days.

asuflyer05 wrote:
Great thread! I work off of 50 on the backside of the Udvar-Hazy and get a great view of IAD traffic.

P.S. also a fellow Sun Devil.

Go Devils! I was on the Poly Campus, so I missed out on all the Tempe fun.
 
timeless159
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:41 pm

IAD doesn't need a new C/D terminal right now. And even with a new terminal United would still need gates on the A concourse. Getting from C/D to the A gates seems to confuse people. C to A takes a train, two moving walkways and 7 escalators. D to A takes a people mover and one escalator.

The Metro Silver line will be completed to IAD in early 2020. It will be about 45 mins to Metro Center. (Vs. about 20 mins to Gallery Place from DCA on the Yellow line) Maybe this will send more traffic to IAD.

A bunch of Air Wisconsin CRJ 200s are moving from DCA to IAD as they switch from AA to UAL flying. Is United adding regional capacity to IAD or just shuffling Trans States, Mesa or Commutair planes to another hub?

IAD would have been a much better airport if 1L/19R had been a 2nd 12/30. There is still room for a 2nd 12/30 runway and that will do much more for IAD than a C/D terminal in its planned location. Neither improvement will be needed unless traffic exceeds its peak traffic from about 10 years ago.

I'm rooting for IAD to grow! If it grows it might get another runway or a better terminal....and maybe a terminal train that runs a complete loop.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:14 pm

timeless159 wrote:
IAD doesn't need a new C/D terminal right now. And even with a new terminal United would still need gates on the A concourse. Getting from C/D to the A gates seems to confuse people. C to A takes a train, two moving walkways and 7 escalators. D to A takes a people mover and one escalator.

The Metro Silver line will be completed to IAD in early 2020. It will be about 45 mins to Metro Center. (Vs. about 20 mins to Gallery Place from DCA on the Yellow line) Maybe this will send more traffic to IAD.

A bunch of Air Wisconsin CRJ 200s are moving from DCA to IAD as they switch from AA to UAL flying. Is United adding regional capacity to IAD or just shuffling Trans States, Mesa or Commutair planes to another hub?

IAD would have been a much better airport if 1L/19R had been a 2nd 12/30. There is still room for a 2nd 12/30 runway and that will do much more for IAD than a C/D terminal in its planned location. Neither improvement will be needed unless traffic exceeds its peak traffic from about 10 years ago.

I'm rooting for IAD to grow! If it grows it might get another runway or a better terminal....and maybe a terminal train that runs a complete loop.

Presumably a replacement for C/D could also replace the UAX gates on A, no? My desire for it to be replaced is primarily for the passenger experience factor. After the huge upgrades to security (I would argue too much and too expensive, but that's another story), the train, the IAB, and the underground walkways to parking, coupled with a very nice A/B concourse and the connection with Metro, the C/D concourse is a huge letdown. It's a 35 year old temporary terminal that exceeded its original lifespan two decades ago. The lounges are stuck in the basement, the walkways are cramped, it's dim, it's depressing.. No matter what other project they've got going on, it spoils the experience for passengers on the most important carrier to the airport. Unfortunately it seems to take 50 years to get anything done around here, so maybe in another 10 or 15 years it'll finally happen :banghead:

I started noticing the AWI CRJ2s showing up at IAD on their first day in service for UAX — three weeks ago, maybe? I've seen them coming from ORF, RIC, RDU, and a couple others, but I only see traffic coming from the south. ORF seems to get the weirdest mix of aircraft in the summer. I've seen everything from CRJ2, CRJ7, E175, B738, B739, and B752 in the past couple months.

Construction of an additional 12/30 would have never happened. For one thing, it doesn't fit with the FAA model of increased efficiency through use of more parallel runways. Adding crosswinds without legitimate justification degrades operational efficiency. Building a third parallel permits the use of simultaneous arrivals with a dedicated departure runway. Only having one departure and one arrival runway — even in two configurations — drops the airport acceptance rate significantly. They utilize the 1/19s nearly all the time, so I can't see a justification for spending a billion dollars on a parallel to runway that has minimal operational impact. The airport would function unaffected if 12/30 didn't exist.

While IAD doesn't generally have enough traffic to justify construction of the third parallel, they certainly have a couple of peak times during the day where the increased acceptance rate is absolutely appreciated. They don't have nearly the congestion of DCA, nor do they go into holding nearly as often (IAD usually only holds for weather, DCA holds regularly for volume), but the runway was built with the future in mind. Obviously numbers declined significantly after the mid 2000s, but it's one of the rare examples where a runway project has been more proactive than reactive.

I agree on the train needing to be a loop — the current layout is more time consuming to transfer for some folks, but I'm sure it'll cost another $1 billion just to do it. If they've got that kind of money laying around, I'd rather they just build the new terminal!
 
OKCDCA
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:00 am

Has there ever been any consideration to try and squeeze in a parallel runway at DCA? I know it would be short but would probably be comparable to something you find at MDW but would be longer than 15/33 which is mostly for RJ's but there are videos floating around out there of 737's and even a 757 using it. Would it even be feasible if possible? Just a crazy idea...
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:56 am

OKCDCA wrote:
Has there ever been any consideration to try and squeeze in a parallel runway at DCA? I know it would be short but would probably be comparable to something you find at MDW but would be longer than 15/33 which is mostly for RJ's but there are videos floating around out there of 737's and even a 757 using it. Would it even be feasible if possible? Just a crazy idea...

Massive political battles and money aside, there's just no way there would be enough room for simultaneous ops if there were a parallel to 1/19. They would have to be so close that Same Runway Separation would have to be used — there might be two runways, but effectively they would only operate as one. Since they're essentially a one runway airport now, that wouldn't really help much! Even if they use land reclamation into the Potomac (which isn't happening), they would still be too close. If they could expand the boundaries beyond the existing field with landfill, they would have already extended 15/33, which is basically only used for RJs. An extension still wouldn't help much though. Short of filling in half of the river, the runways are what they are.

Apart from that (and I'm winging this, because I'm hardly brushed up on my FAR part 77 knowledge), I don't know how much lengthening or new construction could be done without also having to adhere to modern safety area requirements. As it is, two of the three runways have EMAS pads, which are remedies to airports deeply out of compliance with regard to proper safety areas. They're grandfathered of course, but I don't know if/how much work could conceivably be done without having to meet the new standards. In which case, they'd probably have to fill in the whole Potomac!
 
timeless159
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Fri Oct 06, 2017 5:51 am

atcsundevil wrote:
timeless159 wrote:
IAD doesn't need a new C/D terminal right now. And even with a new terminal United would still need gates on the A concourse. Getting from C/D to the A gates seems to confuse people. C to A takes a train, two moving walkways and 7 escalators. D to A takes a people mover and one escalator.

The Metro Silver line will be completed to IAD in early 2020. It will be about 45 mins to Metro Center. (Vs. about 20 mins to Gallery Place from DCA on the Yellow line) Maybe this will send more traffic to IAD.

A bunch of Air Wisconsin CRJ 200s are moving from DCA to IAD as they switch from AA to UAL flying. Is United adding regional capacity to IAD or just shuffling Trans States, Mesa or Commutair planes to another hub?

IAD would have been a much better airport if 1L/19R had been a 2nd 12/30. There is still room for a 2nd 12/30 runway and that will do much more for IAD than a C/D terminal in its planned location. Neither improvement will be needed unless traffic exceeds its peak traffic from about 10 years ago.

I'm rooting for IAD to grow! If it grows it might get another runway or a better terminal....and maybe a terminal train that runs a complete loop.

Presumably a replacement for C/D could also replace the UAX gates on A, no? My desire for it to be replaced is primarily for the passenger experience factor. After the huge upgrades to security (I would argue too much and too expensive, but that's another story), the train, the IAB, and the underground walkways to parking, coupled with a very nice A/B concourse and the connection with Metro, the C/D concourse is a huge letdown. It's a 35 year old temporary terminal that exceeded its original lifespan two decades ago. The lounges are stuck in the basement, the walkways are cramped, it's dim, it's depressing.. No matter what other project they've got going on, it spoils the experience for passengers on the most important carrier to the airport. Unfortunately it seems to take 50 years to get anything done around here, so maybe in another 10 or 15 years it'll finally happen :banghead:

I started noticing the AWI CRJ2s showing up at IAD on their first day in service for UAX — three weeks ago, maybe? I've seen them coming from ORF, RIC, RDU, and a couple others, but I only see traffic coming from the south. ORF seems to get the weirdest mix of aircraft in the summer. I've seen everything from CRJ2, CRJ7, E175, B738, B739, and B752 in the past couple months.

Construction of an additional 12/30 would have never happened. For one thing, it doesn't fit with the FAA model of increased efficiency through use of more parallel runways. Adding crosswinds without legitimate justification degrades operational efficiency. Building a third parallel permits the use of simultaneous arrivals with a dedicated departure runway. Only having one departure and one arrival runway — even in two configurations — drops the airport acceptance rate significantly. They utilize the 1/19s nearly all the time, so I can't see a justification for spending a billion dollars on a parallel to runway that has minimal operational impact. The airport would function unaffected if 12/30 didn't exist.

While IAD doesn't generally have enough traffic to justify construction of the third parallel, they certainly have a couple of peak times during the day where the increased acceptance rate is absolutely appreciated. They don't have nearly the congestion of DCA, nor do they go into holding nearly as often (IAD usually only holds for weather, DCA holds regularly for volume), but the runway was built with the future in mind. Obviously numbers declined significantly after the mid 2000s, but it's one of the rare examples where a runway project has been more proactive than reactive.

I agree on the train needing to be a loop — the current layout is more time consuming to transfer for some folks, but I'm sure it'll cost another $1 billion just to do it. If they've got that kind of money laying around, I'd rather they just build the new terminal!


A new C/D would not be longer, so the 30 regional gates United has on the A concourse would not fit. I think the ideal layout would have been 3 shorter terminals so there could be one train down the center like ATL or DEN. It's too late for this to happen but at least it isn't as bad as MCI or DFW.

When 19C/19L are in use for arrivals and when 1R/1C are in use for arrivals, the primary departure runway is 30. It's never one parallel for departures and one for arrivals. It's simultaneous arrivals to the center and east parallel with most departures off 30...and then some departures off the east parallel as the arrival bank transitions to a departure bank. It's an excellent configuration because 3 runways are in use, but an active runway never needs to be crossed.

I mention a second 12/30 because I think the acceptance rate of 30/hr when Runway 30 is the only arrival runway due to winds is one of the biggest weaknesses at the airport. The acceptance rate of 30 is usually not even met because there is no approach to that runway so sequencing traffic precisely is more difficult. With United's 4 big banks, the 30/hr acceptance rate screws up the whole day. Before construction, I've been told, the FAA determined a third parallel was 2% more efficient. In practice it hasn't worked out. United, IAD tower and Potomac approach would have definitely preferred a second 12/30 instead.
 
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fraspotter
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Fri Oct 06, 2017 6:39 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
Great idea for a thread. WN needs to do RIC to MDW. They said they would years ago....no excuse it has not happened. ORF to PHX could work for AA. WN flew to LAS from ORF for many years and gave up the route. ORF to PHX would probably generate more high yield traffic.

The western suburbs of DC are growing in a big way. I think there is great potential for additional domestic growth at IAD. I think international from IAD is reasonably well served.


I've been saying the same thing about my home airport RIC for years regarding Southwest. They got MCO and ATL as remnants of the old Air Tran days but MCO then went seasonal before biting the dust not too long ago IINM. Now we rely on just ATL as our gateway to the outside world with WN. MDW would not only double the number of destination accessible by 1 stop but it would also get rid of the sizeable detour that a lot of people would take if they went down to ATL (or God forbid MCO back in the day).

On a RIC related note UA REALLY needs to up the frequency on their DEN services. They've already upgraded from the original E175 to A319/A320 but the flights are very popular from what I hear and could easily handle more frequencies. My sister lives in Denver and my family would LOVE to be able to fly nonstop but the prices are ridiculous and this wasn't just "nonstop costs more than connecting" pricing. Roundtrip from RIC-DEN nonstop was easily 7-800 dollars on the low end. Flying from RIC-LAX via DEN was actually several hundred dollars cheaper than just going from RIC-DEN. UA has an impressive destination selection from RIC (IAD, EWR, ORD, IAH, DEN) but DEN could definitely stand to get a bit more love.
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blockski
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Fri Oct 06, 2017 12:31 pm

atcsundevil wrote:
OKCDCA wrote:
Has there ever been any consideration to try and squeeze in a parallel runway at DCA? I know it would be short but would probably be comparable to something you find at MDW but would be longer than 15/33 which is mostly for RJ's but there are videos floating around out there of 737's and even a 757 using it. Would it even be feasible if possible? Just a crazy idea...

Massive political battles and money aside, there's just no way there would be enough room for simultaneous ops if there were a parallel to 1/19. They would have to be so close that Same Runway Separation would have to be used — there might be two runways, but effectively they would only operate as one. Since they're essentially a one runway airport now, that wouldn't really help much! Even if they use land reclamation into the Potomac (which isn't happening), they would still be too close. If they could expand the boundaries beyond the existing field with landfill, they would have already extended 15/33, which is basically only used for RJs. An extension still wouldn't help much though. Short of filling in half of the river, the runways are what they are.

Apart from that (and I'm winging this, because I'm hardly brushed up on my FAR part 77 knowledge), I don't know how much lengthening or new construction could be done without also having to adhere to modern safety area requirements. As it is, two of the three runways have EMAS pads, which are remedies to airports deeply out of compliance with regard to proper safety areas. They're grandfathered of course, but I don't know if/how much work could conceivably be done without having to meet the new standards. In which case, they'd probably have to fill in the whole Potomac!


Plus, the region already built additional runways. They’re at IAD.

The whole reason IAD exists is because DCA's constraints were known 60 years ago, and expansion of the airfield then (as now) was unrealistic.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Fri Oct 06, 2017 12:41 pm

fraspotter wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
Great idea for a thread. WN needs to do RIC to MDW. They said they would years ago....no excuse it has not happened. ORF to PHX could work for AA. WN flew to LAS from ORF for many years and gave up the route. ORF to PHX would probably generate more high yield traffic.

The western suburbs of DC are growing in a big way. I think there is great potential for additional domestic growth at IAD. I think international from IAD is reasonably well served.


I've been saying the same thing about my home airport RIC for years regarding Southwest. They got MCO and ATL as remnants of the old Air Tran days but MCO then went seasonal before biting the dust not too long ago IINM. Now we rely on just ATL as our gateway to the outside world with WN. MDW would not only double the number of destination accessible by 1 stop but it would also get rid of the sizeable detour that a lot of people would take if they went down to ATL (or God forbid MCO back in the day).

On a RIC related note UA REALLY needs to up the frequency on their DEN services. They've already upgraded from the original E175 to A319/A320 but the flights are very popular from what I hear and could easily handle more frequencies. My sister lives in Denver and my family would LOVE to be able to fly nonstop but the prices are ridiculous and this wasn't just "nonstop costs more than connecting" pricing. Roundtrip from RIC-DEN nonstop was easily 7-800 dollars on the low end. Flying from RIC-LAX via DEN was actually several hundred dollars cheaper than just going from RIC-DEN. UA has an impressive destination selection from RIC (IAD, EWR, ORD, IAH, DEN) but DEN could definitely stand to get a bit more love.


Southwest wants to further expand at DEN, and this was already discussed at https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1370071. Southwest could also add nonstop service to DEN out of RIC if the demand is there for additional nonstop service to DEN out of RIC.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Fri Oct 06, 2017 1:26 pm

timeless159 wrote:
I mention a second 12/30 because I think the acceptance rate of 30/hr when Runway 30 is the only arrival runway due to winds is one of the biggest weaknesses at the airport. The acceptance rate of 30 is usually not even met because there is no approach to that runway so sequencing traffic precisely is more difficult. With United's 4 big banks, the 30/hr acceptance rate screws up the whole day. Before construction, I've been told, the FAA determined a third parallel was 2% more efficient. In practice it hasn't worked out. United, IAD tower and Potomac approach would have definitely preferred a second 12/30 instead.


How often does this happen though that only 30 is used for arrivals? The answer is very rarely outside of some late night periods when demand is very low. It's rare that IAD has strong enough east/west winds that the 1/19's can't be used.

In other news, MWAA released July passenger statistics for IAD and DCA.

YTD 2017 (through July):
IAD's passenger numbers up 5.2% (vs 2016), domestic up 4.9% and international up 5.6%.
DCA's passener numbers up 2.5% (vs 2016).

http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... report.pdf
 
Worldair1
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:50 pm

In regards to AN-124 inquires at IAD, many times those flights are for Orbital - ATK (soon to be Northrop Grumman) shipping satellites from the Dulles manufacturing facility to the launch sites in French Guyana as well as Bakinor in Russia. Depending on the size, they sometimes charter a dedicated 747 freighter as well.
 
DCAfan
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Fri Oct 06, 2017 5:43 pm

One of the best kept secrets in Washington is that airfield capacity at DCA can expand significantly thanks mainly to the modernization of the ATC system. IAD has the attributes of a medium hub domestically. In short, it lacks the mass to justify the artificial constraints that inhibit the optimization of DCA as a domestic airport. Time will tell, but I believe the aviation policies of the mid-20th century, such as the DCA perimeter rule, will fall by the wayside going forward.
 
peterj324
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Fri Oct 06, 2017 5:52 pm

Does anyone know who Air Wisconsin is replacing at IAD? Will it be replacing the Expressjet E-145s or Commutair Dash-8s? Or will they be used to new markets/additional frequencies?
 
DCA-ROCguy
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Fri Oct 06, 2017 6:23 pm

Very busy week, so not too much time to post, but some brief observations. I've been in the DC area 21 years and have flown many times out of DCA and BWI, and rarely from IAD.

Re regional carriers, don't forget the never-formed DC Air. :) It was United and US Airways' attempt to placate DOJ re DCA market concentration when they proposed their merger in 2000. It was to be headed by Robert Johnson, the head of Black Entertainment Television, and would have run a fleet of regional a/c and I think even some 737's. Even in the age of six rather than three legacy carriers, the idea probably would have had tough going. They probably would have had to partner with a legacy as a regional partner, like PSA or Air Wisconsin, to stay in business.

The most important thing to do at IAD now is not to increase the airport's debt and costs. Accept Terminal C-D as a fact of life, shutter the A regional gates and move all UA regional traffic to C-D, and move the frigging train station back to actually being at C-D. That is a small amount of money spent that would be a very good idea. MWAA has spectacularly mismanaged IAD. The underground train system was unneccesary. The moon buggy system worked fine and was more convenient. A much less expensive expansion of TSA on the second floor of the landside building would have made much more sense. Old IAD was much better--check in on the second floor, go through security on the second floor, walk into a moon buggy seconds later on the second floor, walk off the moon buggy onto your concourse on the second floor.

Metro isn't going to do much for IAD. There will be 19 stops between Union Station and IAD. The Silver Line will do much more for residents and businesses of the Dulles Corridor than it will do for the airport. A MARC-like commuter train would have been much better, but there wasn't any place to put it.

Looking forward to getting rid of Gate 35X at DCA. The apron is hot and smelly in the summer, cold and smelly in the winter. DCA has the business to pay for the new concourse, so it should absorb the cost easily. Not thrilled that MWAA can send DCA money out to IAD. DCA passengers shouldn't pay for MWAA's mismanagement.

Jim
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blockski
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Fri Oct 06, 2017 6:33 pm

DCAfan wrote:
One of the best kept secrets in Washington is that airfield capacity at DCA can expand significantly thanks mainly to the modernization of the ATC system. IAD has the attributes of a medium hub domestically. In short, it lacks the mass to justify the artificial constraints that inhibit the optimization of DCA as a domestic airport. Time will tell, but I believe the aviation policies of the mid-20th century, such as the DCA perimeter rule, will fall by the wayside going forward.


You're saying three very different things here:

1. Modern ATC can increase capacity at DCA
2. I think you're trying to say that IAD lacks the critical mass to compete against DCA, but you've worded it confusingly.
3. The perimeter rule at DCA will go away

On point #1, I don't think changes in ATC can increase capacity too much at DCA. It's still effectively a one-runway, narrowbody-only airport. And it always will be. You could increase the number of slots per hour marginally under good weather with better ATC, but that would a) only be a marginal change, and b) wouldn't necessarily be supported by any other policy goals.

On point #2, both IAD and DCA are operated by MWAA, which was given responsibility to operate both airports as a system from the Federal Government. In other words, they're not trying to optimize DCA; they're trying to optimize the system. This is their mission, as defined by federal law.

On point 3, I don't see the perimeter rule changing anytime soon. It would be extraordinarily disruptive. MWAA has a clause in the leases at DCA and IAD that triggers automatic renegotiation (e.g. their ability to charge higher rates) if the perimeter rule is eliminated by Congress.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Fri Oct 06, 2017 6:38 pm

In regards to WN at RIC I think now that the AirTran merger is done and the 737-300's all have been retired. RIC will finally see some growth opportunities from WN.
I don't think it will be anything major but I predict
1 DEN-RIC and 1 DEN-FLL.
MDW has gate availability issues from about mid morning to 9pm with the ever increasing turn times. I think RIC-STL has more of a near future chance than anything else.

Flyguy
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blockski
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Fri Oct 06, 2017 6:40 pm

DCA-ROCguy wrote:
The most important thing to do at IAD now is not to increase the airport's debt and costs. Accept Terminal C-D as a fact of life, shutter the A regional gates and move all UA regional traffic to C-D, and move the frigging train station back to actually being at C-D. That is a small amount of money spent that would be a very good idea. MWAA has spectacularly mismanaged IAD. The underground train system was unneccesary. The moon buggy system worked fine and was more convenient. A much less expensive expansion of TSA on the second floor of the landside building would have made much more sense. Old IAD was much better--check in on the second floor, go through security on the second floor, walk into a moon buggy seconds later on the second floor, walk off the moon buggy onto your concourse on the second floor.


Moving a subway station a few hundred feet wouldn't be a small cost, it would be an absolutely massive cost for an extremely small benefit - and a short-sighted one at that.

There's a reason IAD wanted to move away from the moon buggies, and that's because they're not sustainable in the long term. Nobody else uses them. They're not manufactured any more. The operating costs are going up, up, up, and they remain severely capacity constrained. And that's not to defend the specific choices made around the AeroTrain, but the idea that the people movers were a long-term solution doesn't hold up.
 
timeless159
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:14 pm

FlyPNS1 wrote:
timeless159 wrote:
I mention a second 12/30 because I think the acceptance rate of 30/hr when Runway 30 is the only arrival runway due to winds is one of the biggest weaknesses at the airport. The acceptance rate of 30 is usually not even met because there is no approach to that runway so sequencing traffic precisely is more difficult. With United's 4 big banks, the 30/hr acceptance rate screws up the whole day. Before construction, I've been told, the FAA determined a third parallel was 2% more efficient. In practice it hasn't worked out. United, IAD tower and Potomac approach would have definitely preferred a second 12/30 instead.


How often does this happen though that only 30 is used for arrivals? The answer is very rarely outside of some late night periods when demand is very low. It's rare that IAD has strong enough east/west winds that the 1/19's can't be used.

In other news, MWAA released July passenger statistics for IAD and DCA.

YTD 2017 (through July):
IAD's passenger numbers up 5.2% (vs 2016), domestic up 4.9% and international up 5.6%.
DCA's passener numbers up 2.5% (vs 2016).

http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... report.pdf


It seems to happen about 10 days a year usually in spring and typically affects the middle two banks. The one around 1pm and 6pm. It causes ground stops.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:03 pm

DCAfan wrote:
One of the best kept secrets in Washington is that airfield capacity at DCA can expand significantly thanks mainly to the modernization of the ATC system.

I'm not really sure how you figure this, but apparently somebody has kept this secret from me! Airport Acceptance Rate is what it is regardless of ATC modernization. Separation standards haven't changed, and the airport only utilizes 1/19 for nearly all arrivals and departures. There is no component of NextGen that will remedy that. There are multiple times a day where the airport operates at its maximum, and very little can be done about that. DCA routinely goes into holding for volume even on nice, sunny, summer days. Potomac TRACON can only handle so many aircraft in their flow due to airspace constraints, which is backed up by single runway ops. New technology is good, airspace modernization is good (although PCT and ZDC are highly optimized around efficiency already), and system modernization is good. However, at the end of the day, there needs to be enough asphalt on the ground to get everybody in and out. No amount of modernization can fix that.
 
DCAfan
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:46 am

The IFR acceptance rate, which is what slots are based on, at DCA is 28 per hour. The VFR acceptance rate is 32 per hour. The modernization of ATC will permit 8 additional operations per hour which is a big increase.
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:54 am

fraspotter wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
Great idea for a thread. WN needs to do RIC to MDW. They said they would years ago....no excuse it has not happened. ORF to PHX could work for AA. WN flew to LAS from ORF for many years and gave up the route. ORF to PHX would probably generate more high yield traffic.

The western suburbs of DC are growing in a big way. I think there is great potential for additional domestic growth at IAD. I think international from IAD is reasonably well served.


I've been saying the same thing about my home airport RIC for years regarding Southwest. They got MCO and ATL as remnants of the old Air Tran days but MCO then went seasonal before biting the dust not too long ago IINM. Now we rely on just ATL as our gateway to the outside world with WN. MDW would not only double the number of destination accessible by 1 stop but it would also get rid of the sizeable detour that a lot of people would take if they went down to ATL (or God forbid MCO back in the day).

On a RIC related note UA REALLY needs to up the frequency on their DEN services. They've already upgraded from the original E175 to A319/A320 but the flights are very popular from what I hear and could easily handle more frequencies. My sister lives in Denver and my family would LOVE to be able to fly nonstop but the prices are ridiculous and this wasn't just "nonstop costs more than connecting" pricing. Roundtrip from RIC-DEN nonstop was easily 7-800 dollars on the low end. Flying from RIC-LAX via DEN was actually several hundred dollars cheaper than just going from RIC-DEN. UA has an impressive destination selection from RIC (IAD, EWR, ORD, IAH, DEN) but DEN could definitely stand to get a bit more love.



Great post. I completely agree with you. I am from Richmond and flew out of RIC dozens of times on business when I was with United Healthcare. Going west I would usually go through DTW or MSP on NW and later DL, or Air Tran through ATL.

I always wished there was more direct routing to the west coast through a hub like DEN. I think UA could easily add greater frequency now and it would be just as successful as the current single frequency. There is also major potential for WN at RIC going west through MDW, STL, or DEN.

TW flew mainline flights from RIC to STL and they did well. There is no reason WN could not make money on the same route but I guess they'll continue to overlook the Richmond market. They consistently have screwed Richmond over ever since the Air Tran acquisition.
707 717 727 72S 737 733 737-700 747 757 753 767-300 764 A319 A320 DC-9-10 DC-9-30 DC-9-50, MD-82 MD-88 MD-90 DC-10-10 DC-10-40 F-100
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:09 am

DCAfan wrote:
The IFR acceptance rate, which is what slots are based on, at DCA is 28 per hour. The VFR acceptance rate is 32 per hour. The modernization of ATC will permit 8 additional operations per hour which is a big increase.

"Modernization" is a rather vague term — specifically which program would accomplish this? I'm not aware of any related NextGen initiative(s), because I know if no definitive plan to decrease separation standards from where they currently are. The only decreased separation I'm aware of is when airports qualify for reduced separation on final from 3 to 2.5 for large/large provided their runway occupancy time averages less than one minute, but I'm sure DCA already qualifies for that. Granted I don't work in a tower, so maybe there's some plan in the works that I'm not aware of, but when they're already running reduced separation, I don't understand how ops can be further increased. Multiple planning, projection, and scheduling tools are already being used by TMU to maximize efficiency. The only way I could see them increasing their AAR by that amount is if they just decided not to do departures anymore. Most aircraft need 55-60 seconds to vacate a runway, so between departures and arrivals, I don't understand how the total number of operations could exceed roughly 65 per hour. Increasing the AAR to 40 from 32 would just lower their departure rate. You can't raise both without another ebay, and it's a challenge to put them too close together given the complex approach/departure. I could see how RNAV/RNP might help, but I can't see how it would be that dramatic.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:44 am

The operations rate would be 64 per hour which is quite doable.
 
estorilm
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Sat Oct 07, 2017 2:12 am

DCA-ROCguy wrote:
estorilm wrote:
Not completely related (thought I love the thread idea also) but does anyone know what large aircraft departed IAD around 8:45PM EST this evening?


Try flightaware.com. Since I'm a nice guy, I checked. These seem to be the options.

8:42pm KLM 652 772 Glasgow (??)
8:46pm ICE 644 763 Keflavik
8:50pm QTR 708 77W Hamad Int'l.

Jim

Thanks - and I'm sure you're a nice guy, but I saw those departures as well. ;)

777s and 767s sound absolutely nothing like this, and make it over my house about 2x the altitude.

This had the classic eerie two-tone high/low Russian jet sound, the tip-to-tip distance of the strobes was massive.

I've caught one flying overhead at a friends house in Haymarket, and I believe it was listed on the departures.

What flights aren't listed on those sites? Hm.

Only other a/c type could have been a C5, based on engine noise and wingspan - highly doubt that though haha.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Sat Oct 07, 2017 11:15 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
In regards to WN at RIC I think now that the AirTran merger is done and the 737-300's all have been retired. RIC will finally see some growth opportunities from WN.
I don't think it will be anything major but I predict
1 DEN-RIC and 1 DEN-FLL.
MDW has gate availability issues from about mid morning to 9pm with the ever increasing turn times. I think RIC-STL has more of a near future chance than anything else.

Flyguy


Just to add in the STL comparison
Yearly average one way per day numbers. (already halved)

Hartford - 60 - no service
Norfolk - 57 - no service
PBI - 48 - 1x weekly in March season
CHS - 47 -runs seasonal
RIC - 43 - no service
ICT - 41 - 2x daily
TUL - 37 - 2x daily
DSM - 37 - 2x daily
LIT - 37 - 2x daily

The four with 2x daily service are obviously fed through STL as they don't have service to many other stations, none of the four have MDW.

Not really sure what any of it means. If RIC has a lot of traffic to the west coast, most of STL's west coast flights are banked to leave around 2 pm so they could in theory make a flight with that work. The numbers make it look like Norfolk might get picked up first though. Since Norfolk already runs to MDW, I guess they could have RIC run through STL.

I really don't know much about the RIC market to have much of an opinion.
 
cheapgreek
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Sun Oct 08, 2017 12:45 am

What about WN or another LCC going to LYH? It may seem like a small area but it could draw from ROA and CHO, both minus a LCC apart from Allegiant in ROA. Its located right off a main highway, RT 460, has a 7100 foot runway and the terminal could handle more traffic, years back US had 737's to CLT and UA to IAD. It could become the center for a LCC in a 75 mile radius.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Sun Oct 08, 2017 1:52 am

Jshank83 wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
In regards to WN at RIC I think now that the AirTran merger is done and the 737-300's all have been retired. RIC will finally see some growth opportunities from WN.
I don't think it will be anything major but I predict
1 DEN-RIC and 1 DEN-FLL.
MDW has gate availability issues from about mid morning to 9pm with the ever increasing turn times. I think RIC-STL has more of a near future chance than anything else.

Flyguy


Just to add in the STL comparison
Yearly average one way per day numbers. (already halved)

Hartford - 60 - no service
Norfolk - 57 - no service
PBI - 48 - 1x weekly in March season
CHS - 47 -runs seasonal
RIC - 43 - no service
ICT - 41 - 2x daily
TUL - 37 - 2x daily
DSM - 37 - 2x daily
LIT - 37 - 2x daily

The four with 2x daily service are obviously fed through STL as they don't have service to many other stations, none of the four have MDW.

Not really sure what any of it means. If RIC has a lot of traffic to the west coast, most of STL's west coast flights are banked to leave around 2 pm so they could in theory make a flight with that work. The numbers make it look like Norfolk might get picked up first though. Since Norfolk already runs to MDW, I guess they could have RIC run through STL.

I really don't know much about the RIC market to have much of an opinion.

I remember AA (previously TWA) had an STL flight on the Super 80 for a number of years. Obviously that ended when the STL hub closed, and traffic was split between ORD and DFW. I have no idea what percentage then was transfer vs. O&D, but the couple of times I took this flight, I recall it being like most flights out of Richmond, which is a majority being transfer pax. It's probably been close to 15 years since that route ended, so I wonder how things might work today. I would rather see WN bring back the old Florida routes AirTran used to run, plus DEN/PHX/LAX, etc. RIC needs a little more diversity in their route network, and in the years I flew between RIC and the west coast, there were always a large number of passengers headed out west with me. In either case, I'd just like to see WN increase their presence, because the single route to ATL doesn't have much impact on the airport.

cheapgreek wrote:
What about WN or another LCC going to LYH? It may seem like a small area but it could draw from ROA and CHO, both minus a LCC apart from Allegiant in ROA. Its located right off a main highway, RT 460, has a 7100 foot runway and the terminal could handle more traffic, years back US had 737's to CLT and UA to IAD. It could become the center for a LCC in a 75 mile radius.

I could see Allegiant coming to either LYH or CHO, but I'm not sure it's all that typical of a WN market. LYH is down to the sole AA route to CLT, so I don't think the numbers are enough to attract WN. Normal metrics don't matter to G4, so if they see potential for a route to Orlando or St. Pete, they'll come. They'll just need to be careful not to cannibalize their routes from RIC and ROA.

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