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DCAfan
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Tue Dec 12, 2017 5:16 pm

What you guys seem to be forgetting is that DCA will have a lot more airfield capacity once the FAA NextGen program is fully operational. Given the statutory gate cap that Congress is unlikely to touch, DCA will have more airfield capacity than gate capacity, permitting the FAA to eliminate the slot control regime. When there are no slots, there are no slot exemptions and the FAA will enforce whatever Congress determines is the appropriate perimeter rule.
 
FlyPNS1
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Tue Dec 12, 2017 6:52 pm

DCAfan wrote:
What you guys seem to be forgetting is that DCA will have a lot more airfield capacity once the FAA NextGen program is fully operational. Given the statutory gate cap that Congress is unlikely to touch, DCA will have more airfield capacity than gate capacity, permitting the FAA to eliminate the slot control regime. When there are no slots, there are no slot exemptions and the FAA will enforce whatever Congress determines is the appropriate perimeter rule.


This is simply not true. The FAA's NextGen program is not going to significantly change spacing between aircraft on final which is the big constraint for DCA which operates mostly as a single runway operation.

Recent modeling shows that even with implementing all near/mid-term NextGen capabilities it would only increase capacity at DCA by 1 operation per hour. That doesn't allow for a lot of additional operations without creating delays.

https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_c ... e-2014.pdf
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:33 pm

DCAfan wrote:
What you guys seem to be forgetting is that DCA will have a lot more airfield capacity once the FAA NextGen program is fully operational. Given the statutory gate cap that Congress is unlikely to touch, DCA will have more airfield capacity than gate capacity, permitting the FAA to eliminate the slot control regime. When there are no slots, there are no slot exemptions and the FAA will enforce whatever Congress determines is the appropriate perimeter rule.

Airfield capacity or airport acceptance rate? Because you seem to be referring to AAR, which is a completely different thing. NextGen has nothing to do with airfield capacity. I don't see how any meaningful increase would even be possible. NextGen is going to do a lot of things for us, but a lot of the efficiency increases with meaningful effect (especially Climb Via/Descend Via) have already been implemented. The issue is with runway occupancy time in a one runway operation, and there no NextGen component that can solve that. NextGen doesn't alleviate complications with P-56 and FRZ/SFRA, it won't prevent the airport from shutting down for every VIP movement, and the limited usable airspace will still provide little tolerance to work with.

The issues that force us to put aircraft into holding today will persist with or without NextGen. Additional slots would only mean that instead of going into holding every few days, we'd go into holding almost every day. DC Center does 80% of the holding for the NAS, almost entirely due to DCA and the NYC area. NextGen will help reduce holding for NYC, but little will change for DCA. So to say there will be "a lot more capacity" is extremely misleading. Any possible increases in efficiency still to come will hopefully keep us from holding due to volume quite as often, but that's it. It simply isn't possible without major airspace changes (not happening) or another usable runway (also not happening).

You're right that the slots at DCA will one day go away, but that will only happen once the airport is closed. Until then, the airport will be absolutely, unquestionably be slot controlled.
 
OKCDCA
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:33 am

FlyPNS1 wrote:
OKCDCA wrote:
cheapgreek wrote:
What are chances of adding say, 6-8 new slots per day at DCA?

While I'd love to see it because I think the stipulation would be a new destination and would probably (finally) get OKC a DCA flight, it just doesn't seem feasible/smart.


AA could add an OKC-DCA flight tomorrow as OKC is inside the perimeter. AA has plenty of slots. AA has recently announced new flights from DCA to VPS, TLH, MGM, PNS (2nd flight), so they have the slots.For whatever reason, AA doesn't seem to think OKC-DCA is as high of a priority.

As for more slots at DCA, I don't see a big push at this point, but you never know with Congress. Operationally however, additional slots will start to strain DCA and create more delays especially when weather conditions are less than optimal.


I realize they could add OKC tomorrow and after reading my post I can see how that can be construed as thinking it's beyond the perimeter. I seem to remember the last time new slots were awarded, not just beyond-perimeter slots, the stipulation to the carrier(s) receiving them was they could not add service to a destination already served within the perimeter from DCA. WN submitted OKC-DCA but I think the slots ended up going to US at the time or WN for HOU service.
 
DCAfan
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:14 pm

atcsundevil,

We can agree to disagree.

The main runway will get more capacity as the aircraft arrival rate is currently based on the IFR acceptance rate.. With NextGen the VFR arrival rate should apply. The two crossword runways will also likely enter the mix as they can handle regional jets and small mainline aircraft. Congress is not going to spend billions on NextGen and leave it all on the ground at DCA. That's just the way it is.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:23 pm

DCAfan wrote:
atcsundevil,

We can agree to disagree.

The main runway will get more capacity as the aircraft arrival rate is currently based on the IFR acceptance rate.. With NextGen the VFR arrival rate should apply. The two crossword runways will also likely enter the mix as they can handle regional jets and small mainline aircraft. Congress is not going to spend billions on NextGen and leave it all on the ground at DCA. That's just the way it is.

Do you have a source? I work for the agency and have never seen anything to suggest this to be the case.
 
OKCDCA
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:45 pm

atcsundevil wrote:
DCAfan wrote:
What you guys seem to be forgetting is that DCA will have a lot more airfield capacity once the FAA NextGen program is fully operational. Given the statutory gate cap that Congress is unlikely to touch, DCA will have more airfield capacity than gate capacity, permitting the FAA to eliminate the slot control regime. When there are no slots, there are no slot exemptions and the FAA will enforce whatever Congress determines is the appropriate perimeter rule.

Airfield capacity or airport acceptance rate? Because you seem to be referring to AAR, which is a completely different thing. NextGen has nothing to do with airfield capacity. I don't see how any meaningful increase would even be possible. NextGen is going to do a lot of things for us, but a lot of the efficiency increases with meaningful effect (especially Climb Via/Descend Via) have already been implemented. The issue is with runway occupancy time in a one runway operation, and there no NextGen component that can solve that. NextGen doesn't alleviate complications with P-56 and FRZ/SFRA, it won't prevent the airport from shutting down for every VIP movement, and the limited usable airspace will still provide little tolerance to work with.

The issues that force us to put aircraft into holding today will persist with or without NextGen. Additional slots would only mean that instead of going into holding every few days, we'd go into holding almost every day. DC Center does 80% of the holding for the NAS, almost entirely due to DCA and the NYC area. NextGen will help reduce holding for NYC, but little will change for DCA. So to say there will be "a lot more capacity" is extremely misleading. Any possible increases in efficiency still to come will hopefully keep us from holding due to volume quite as often, but that's it. It simply isn't possible without major airspace changes (not happening) or another usable runway (also not happening).

You're right that the slots at DCA will one day go away, but that will only happen once the airport is closed. Until then, the airport will be absolutely, unquestionably be slot controlled.


Even if the slots were to go away or more slots given out does DCA even have the gate capacity to handle more flights? My last three flights into DCA on AA we've spent at least 15 min each time waiting on our gate to open. I'm assuming AA is close to 100% utilization on their gates since they're the largest carrier at DCA but do the other airlines even have the gate capacity for more flights (not including F9, AC, and SY)?
 
FlyPNS1
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:53 pm

DCAfan wrote:
With NextGen the VFR arrival rate should apply. The two crossword runways will also likely enter the mix as they can handle regional jets and small mainline aircraft. Congress is not going to spend billions on NextGen and leave it all on the ground at DCA. That's just the way it is.


NextGen doesn't mean you can run VFR rates in IFR conditions. Again, read the actual publications by the FAA on expected capacity gains from NextGen at DCA and they are very small. The FAA has already published this information and Congress is aware of it. It's no secret that NextGen isn't going to dramatically increase capacity at DCA.

Nevermind the fact that others point out that gate constraints will also become a problem.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:38 pm

For those that missed it, IAD will receive new service next year to HKG operated by Cathay. It will be Hong Kong's longest route, and I believe should also be the longest route from the DC area. The flight will be operated by the A350, with a flight time of just under 17 hours. I've personally been looking forward to this one for a while! I think IAD-HKG was long overdue, as I mentioned two months ago in this thread.

https://www.google.com/amp/m.scmp.com/n ... on%3famp=1
 
jplatts
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:40 pm

OKCDCA wrote:
Even if the slots were to go away or more slots given out does DCA even have the gate capacity to handle more flights? My last three flights into DCA on AA we've spent at least 15 min each time waiting on our gate to open. I'm assuming AA is close to 100% utilization on their gates since they're the largest carrier at DCA but do the other airlines even have the gate capacity for more flights (not including F9, AC, and SY)?


Southwest currently only does 42 flights a day out of 6 gates at DCA, and Southwest does have room to add at least 15-20 additional flights a day out of its existing gates at DCA if it can acquire additional slots at DCA.
 
DCAfan
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:38 pm

American currently gets around six departures per day per hardstand at DCA. Once this operation is converted to contact gates per Project Journey the utilization rate could rise to 10 departures per day per gate. To reiterate the gate cap becomes the constraint as is the case at DAL. No slots, no slot exemptions.
 
blockski
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:19 am

atcsundevil wrote:
For those that missed it, IAD will receive new service next year to HKG operated by Cathay. It will be Hong Kong's longest route, and I believe should also be the longest route from the DC area. The flight will be operated by the A350, with a flight time of just under 17 hours. I've personally been looking forward to this one for a while! I think IAD-HKG was long overdue, as I mentioned two months ago in this thread.

https://www.google.com/amp/m.scmp.com/n ... on%3famp=1


Very exciting! That’s a nice get for Dulles.

For other news that might have a local impact, it looks like YTZ will get preclearance. I would imagine that Porter would love to get their hands on DCA slot and shift their IAD flight to DCA.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1380995

I suppose it’s possible they could fly to IAD and DCA, but seems like their preference would be for DCA should preclearance happen and they get a slot.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Sat Dec 16, 2017 1:58 am

After seeing the recent Norwegian adds, it made me wonder how much longer it'll be until they come to the DC area. It seems like a definite gap in their current US service. Any idea what's kept them from starting up flights from Europe to IAD or BWI? I would like to see them add IAD, but I have to imagine BWI is the more likely candidate.
 
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bluefltspecial
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Sat Dec 16, 2017 5:20 am

atcsundevil wrote:
After seeing the recent Norwegian adds, it made me wonder how much longer it'll be until they come to the DC area. It seems like a definite gap in their current US service. Any idea what's kept them from starting up flights from Europe to IAD or BWI? I would like to see them add IAD, but I have to imagine BWI is the more likely candidate.


It's still up in the air, pardon the pun.`

BWI service to the Carribean with the 737 operation was discontinued, and will not resume.

Fares are higher in the IAD, so it's possible the operation may move there, it was being evaluated.
 
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Blimpie
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Mon Dec 18, 2017 12:41 am

Tell ya what, spend three hours at Gravelly Point and tell me if you think they can find space for more take off and landings. I've pointed a 300mm down the runway and can can stack five planes in the frame on final. :)

I have spent entire days spotting DCA and see no more than four or five regional using 15/33 or 4/22. I don't expect to see the utilization of these runways really increase with the newer systems.
 
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Pellegrine
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:59 am

atcsundevil wrote:
For those that missed it, IAD will receive new service next year to HKG operated by Cathay. It will be Hong Kong's longest route, and I believe should also be the longest route from the DC area. The flight will be operated by the A350, with a flight time of just under 17 hours. I've personally been looking forward to this one for a while! I think IAD-HKG was long overdue, as I mentioned two months ago in this thread.

https://www.google.com/amp/m.scmp.com/n ... on%3famp=1


Sooooooo happy for this!! Especially since AA won't interline baggage DCA-JFK-HKG-xxx.

I'm going to use the heck out of this flight, so glad I switched from *A to OW.

DPS, HKG, amd TPE 2018 here I come. :P
 
OKCDCA
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 8:40 pm

blockski wrote:
atcsundevil wrote:
For those that missed it, IAD will receive new service next year to HKG operated by Cathay. It will be Hong Kong's longest route, and I believe should also be the longest route from the DC area. The flight will be operated by the A350, with a flight time of just under 17 hours. I've personally been looking forward to this one for a while! I think IAD-HKG was long overdue, as I mentioned two months ago in this thread.

https://www.google.com/amp/m.scmp.com/n ... on%3famp=1


Very exciting! That’s a nice get for Dulles.

For other news that might have a local impact, it looks like YTZ will get preclearance. I would imagine that Porter would love to get their hands on DCA slot and shift their IAD flight to DCA.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1380995

I suppose it’s possible they could fly to IAD and DCA, but seems like their preference would be for DCA should preclearance happen and they get a slot.

Sounds like this might be possible now with SY vacating DCA on Jan 7 from what another thread is saying. What would it take for Porter to get a slot since they don't serve the airport already? And are there any restrictions on SY's slot which would not allow it to go to Porter?
 
blockski
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:11 pm

OKCDCA wrote:
blockski wrote:
atcsundevil wrote:
For those that missed it, IAD will receive new service next year to HKG operated by Cathay. It will be Hong Kong's longest route, and I believe should also be the longest route from the DC area. The flight will be operated by the A350, with a flight time of just under 17 hours. I've personally been looking forward to this one for a while! I think IAD-HKG was long overdue, as I mentioned two months ago in this thread.

https://www.google.com/amp/m.scmp.com/n ... on%3famp=1


Very exciting! That’s a nice get for Dulles.

For other news that might have a local impact, it looks like YTZ will get preclearance. I would imagine that Porter would love to get their hands on DCA slot and shift their IAD flight to DCA.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1380995

I suppose it’s possible they could fly to IAD and DCA, but seems like their preference would be for DCA should preclearance happen and they get a slot.

Sounds like this might be possible now with SY vacating DCA on Jan 7 from what another thread is saying. What would it take for Porter to get a slot since they don't serve the airport already? And are there any restrictions on SY's slot which would not allow it to go to Porter?


Timing seems off, as YTZ doesn’t yet have preclearance, and that would be an awful long time to squat on a slot. I suppose if they got a slot now, they could lease it to another airline for the near term, or begin the flight from YYZ or another airport that does have preclearance.
 
jplatts
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Fri Dec 22, 2017 5:05 pm

OKCDCA wrote:
I suppose it’s possible they could fly to IAD and DCA, but seems like their preference would be for DCA should preclearance happen and they get a slot.

Sounds like this might be possible now with SY vacating DCA on Jan 7 from what another thread is saying. What would it take for Porter to get a slot since they don't serve the airport already? And are there any restrictions on SY's slot which would not allow it to go to Porter?[/quote]

Frontier could add nonstop service to CVG from DCA if it can acquire extra slots at DCA. In addition to CVG, other destinations that Frontier could serve nonstop from DCA if it can get extra slots at DCA include ATL, ORD, MIA, MCO, and TPA. Will Frontier seek to acquire the SY slots at DCA? If Frontier acquires the SY slots at DCA, will Frontier add nonstop service to a within-perimeter destination from DCA?
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Fri Dec 22, 2017 5:36 pm

jplatts wrote:
Frontier could add nonstop service to CVG from DCA if it can acquire extra slots at DCA. In addition to CVG, other destinations that Frontier could serve nonstop from DCA if it can get extra slots at DCA include ATL, ORD, MIA, MCO, and TPA. Will Frontier seek to acquire the SY slots at DCA? If Frontier acquires the SY slots at DCA, will Frontier add nonstop service to a within-perimeter destination from DCA?

Frontier won't be the only ones interested. I have to imagine Spirit would be interested too. Since SY seemingly zeroed out the schedule last summer, I'm wondering if they worked something out a while back, and that it just hasn't been announced yet. I would assume Frontier and Spirit are the two leading contenders though.
 
LoudounHound
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Fri Dec 22, 2017 5:53 pm

Has the Volaris service from IAD to SAL and SJO been officially announced yet?
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Fri Dec 22, 2017 7:02 pm

LoudounHound wrote:
Has the Volaris service from IAD to SAL and SJO been officially announced yet?

I haven't seen anything. Should we be expecting that?
 
CapitalAvGeek
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Fri Dec 22, 2017 7:50 pm

atcsundevil wrote:
LoudounHound wrote:
Has the Volaris service from IAD to SAL and SJO been officially announced yet?

I haven't seen anything. Should we be expecting that?

According to an article by ATW Online, Volaris will start service from San Jose, Costa Rica (SJO) to IAD 2X weekly starting March 15, 2018. However, there will be a stop in SAL. This new route is still pending government approval though.

http://m.atwonline.com/airports-routes/ ... march-2018
 
WWads
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:05 pm

atcsundevil wrote:
jplatts wrote:
Frontier could add nonstop service to CVG from DCA if it can acquire extra slots at DCA. In addition to CVG, other destinations that Frontier could serve nonstop from DCA if it can get extra slots at DCA include ATL, ORD, MIA, MCO, and TPA. Will Frontier seek to acquire the SY slots at DCA? If Frontier acquires the SY slots at DCA, will Frontier add nonstop service to a within-perimeter destination from DCA?

Frontier won't be the only ones interested. I have to imagine Spirit would be interested too. Since SY seemingly zeroed out the schedule last summer, I'm wondering if they worked something out a while back, and that it just hasn't been announced yet. I would assume Frontier and Spirit are the two leading contenders though.


Spirit at DCA would be such a waste. I'd be for DL getting another slot.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Sat Dec 23, 2017 1:53 am

WWads wrote:
Spirit at DCA would be such a waste. I'd be for DL getting another slot.

That slot is limited to a new entrant, or one with few current slots. It definitely will not go to US3, WN, B6, etc.
 
OKCDCA
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Sat Dec 23, 2017 10:14 pm

atcsundevil wrote:
WWads wrote:
Spirit at DCA would be such a waste. I'd be for DL getting another slot.

That slot is limited to a new entrant, or one with few current slots. It definitely will not go to US3, WN, B6, etc.

So essentially this will be between AC and F9... I don't see one flight a day to be worth NK's time unless they do 4x weekly to one destination and 3x weekly to another. I kind of also agree that NK at DCA would not be a good fit. While I'm all for more competition, DCA doesn't need that circus.
 
WWads
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Mon Dec 25, 2017 5:19 am

If not one of the current airlines, Porter makes the most sense.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2017

Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:42 pm

We'll continue discussion in the 2018 thread.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1382399

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